Free NFL Week 7 Pick: Chiefs vs. 49ers Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the 49ers on Sunday, October 20th at the Levi’s Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 7 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City San Francisco matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 7
(5-0) Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
Date: Sunday, October 20th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara CA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City +1.5 | San Francisco -1.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Kansas City +101 | San Francisco -121
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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Week 7 is here, and we’ve got a thrilling matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers that’s packed with intrigue for bettors and NFL fans alike. These two have a storied history, meeting 16 times—most notably in Super Bowl LVIII, where Mahomes and the Chiefs edged out the 49ers with a late-game dagger.
But fast forward to this week, and the dynamic has shifted. The Chiefs are sitting pretty at 5-0, comfortably leading the AFC West, while the 49ers, sitting at 3-3, are in desperate need of a win to keep pace in the NFC.
Even though the 49ers were favored by -2, the Chiefs picked up a 25-22 win over the 49ers in their only meeting last year (it was a pretty big game…LOL). The Chiefs were the underdogs, and their win allowed them to cover the spread in the Super Bowl.
The combined score of 47 points resulted in a push on the over/under line.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs head into week 7 ranked 3rd in our NFL power rankings and have a 99.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 93.7% chance of winning the AFC West. Kansas City is 5-0 this season, including a 2-0 record on the road. They are 3-0 at home, including a 26-13 win over the Saints in week 5. The Chiefs were favored by 5 points in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 3-1-1 this season.
So far, the under has hit in three straight Chiefs games, including week 5, when they and the Saints combined for 39 points, below the 43-point line. KC’s games have averaged 40.6 points this season, with an average O/U line of 44.9.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Heading into week 7, the Chiefs rank 8th in our offensive power rankings. They are 13th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.6, and 11th in yards per game, with 354.6. Kansas City is 9th in passing yards per game (236.8) and 16th in rushing yards per game (117.8), on 30 rushing attempts per game. On 3rd down, they rank 8th in the NFL, converting 42.6% of their attempts.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 331 yards in week 5, completing 28 of 39 passes, but did not have a touchdown pass and threw one interception. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the team with 130 receiving yards on 7 catches, while Kareem Hunt rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. Kansas City scored 10 points in the 4th quarter against the Saints in week 5.
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In their most recent game, the Chiefs’ defense gave up two passing touchdowns but still came away with an interception. Despite this, they only allowed 174 passing yards on 20 completions. The Chiefs’ defense was strong against the run, allowing just 46 yards on 15 attempts. They also held the Saints to 220 total yards in their 26-13 win.
On third downs, the Chiefs held the Saints to a 40% conversion rate. They recorded one sack and came away with three more QB hits than the Saints.
San Francisco 49ers
Heading into week 7, the 49ers sit at 3-3, which is good enough to put them 4th in our NFL power rankings and gives them a 62.7% chance of making the playoffs. Despite their .500 record, they have a 57.5% chance of winning the NFC West, where they currently rank 1st. San Francisco is 1-2 in division games and 1-3 in conference play.
After a disappointing week 5 loss to the Cardinals, the 49ers bounced back with a 36-24 road win over the Seahawks in week 6. They entered the game as 3.5-point favorites and covered the spread, improving their ATS record to 3-3. San Francisco has been favored in all of their games so far and has an average scoring margin of +5.3. Their O/U record is 4-2, with their games averaging 48.7 points (the O/U line has averaged 45.8 points).
San Francisco 49ers Stats
In our offensive power rankings, the 49ers come in at 6th, and they are 7th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27 points per game. They rank 2nd in passing yards per game (262) despite being 18th in passing attempts. On the ground, they average 158 rushing yards per game, which ranks 3rd, on 31.3 attempts per game. San Francisco has been strong on 3rd down, converting 45.7% of their attempts, and they lead the league in red zone attempts, although they rank 23rd in red zone conversion percentage (14.8%).
Brock Purdy had a strong performance in week 6, throwing for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception, posting a passer rating of 129. Deebo Samuel Sr. led the team with 102 receiving yards on 3 catches, while Isaac Guerendo had 10 carries for 99 yards. The 49ers scored 13 points in both the 2nd and 4th quarters against Seattle.
In their 36-24 win over the Seahawks, the 49ers’ defense allowed 306 passing yards on 30 completions. Despite this, they limited Seattle to just 52 rushing yards on 20 attempts. The defense came up with two interceptions and held the Seahawks to a 43.8% third-down conversion rate. San Francisco’s defense also allowed just 1 passing touchdown and held Seattle to 5.9 passing yards per attempt.
The 49ers’ defense managed only one sack in the game and allowed the Seahawks to gain 358 total yards. However, they did well to limit Seattle’s ground game and force turnovers in the passing game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 5-0 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the 49ers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Chiefs are 6-2-2 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the 49ers have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The 49ers’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +100 | +101 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| 49ers | -118 | -120 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
4* Free Week 7 NFL Betting Prediction: Kansas City +1.5
Handicappers are loving the tight betting lines, with San Francisco favored by just 1.5 points at home.
But take note: Kansas City has been a juggernaut against the spread, boasting a 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 games and a perfect 10-0 straight up. The 49ers, on the other hand, have struggled recently, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 outings.
The key factors here? Keep an eye on the injury reports—Pearsall and Edwards-Helaire could be game-changers if they suit up. But regardless of who takes the field, expect this to be a gritty, hard-fought contest, with playoff implications hanging in the balance for San Francisco.
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Chiefs to cover as road underdogs in this week seven matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers. The point spread lines have the 49ers as slight favorites at -1.5, and although the Chiefs are the underdogs, we have the 49ers winning by a score of 23-22.
Both teams will look to dominate time of possession, which could lead to a lower-scoring affair, especially with these defenses ready to make a statement.
With the line sitting at 46.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with our projections coming in at 45 combined points. Buckle up, this one’s going to be a ride!
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
f o c u s e d
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 17, 2024
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