Free NFL Week 11 Pick: Chiefs vs. Bills Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Bills on Sunday, November 17th at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(9-0) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (8-2)
Date: Sunday, November 17th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City +2.5 | Buffalo -2.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Kansas City +115 | Buffalo -137
NFL Betting Total: O/U 45.5
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The rivalry has been played 55 times, and the Bills have won 29, the Chiefs 25. They have also tied 1 time.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Bills have the leg up at 2-1. The Bills also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
Buffalo holds a 3-2 record against KC in their last five.
These games averaged a combined total of 43 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
The last matchup was 1/21/24. A Chiefs 27-24 win in Buffalo.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs narrowly edged the Broncos 16-14 in week 10, improving to 9-0 on the season. Kansas City ranks 4th in our power rankings and has a 97.1% chance of winning the AFC West and a 100% chance of making the playoffs. They are 3-0 in division games and 5-0 in conference matchups.
KC is 4-4-1 against the spread this season, including three straight ATS losses. They were 7-point favorites against Denver but couldn’t cover. The O/U line was 42.5, with the teams combining for 30 points.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Patrick Mahomes threw for 266 yards and a touchdown in week 10, completing 28 of 42 passes against the Broncos. He posted a passer rating of 91 and avoided interceptions after being sacked four times. Kareem Hunt led the rushing attack with 35 yards on 14 carries, while also leading the team in receiving with 65 yards on 7 catches. The Chiefs struggled on third down, converting 7 of 16 attempts, and scored just once in four red zone trips.
Travis Kelce had been Mahomes’ top target in weeks 8 and 9, with 90 yards in week 8 and 100 yards in week 9. Kansas City ranks 9th in passing yards per game, averaging 231.6, and they are 10th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in third-down conversion percentage at 52% but rank 25th in red zone conversion percentage.
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In their 16-14 win over the Broncos, the Chiefs’ defense allowed 182 passing yards, with Denver completing 73.3% of their passes. The Chiefs gave up two passing touchdowns and struggled on third downs, allowing the Broncos to convert 53.8% of their third down chances. However, the Chiefs defended the run well, holding the Broncos to 78 yards on 23 attempts.
Kansas City’s defense limited the Broncos to 260 total yards in the game. They recorded two sacks and won the tackles for loss battle by +1. Despite their struggles on third downs, the Chiefs managed to pull out a narrow two-point victory.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills extended their winning streak to five games with a 30-20 victory over the Colts in week 10, bringing their record to 8-2. Buffalo is now 4-0 at home and 4-2 on the road, and they sit atop the AFC East with a 3-0 division record. Our projections give the Bills a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and winning the division.
Buffalo ranks 3rd in our NFL power rankings and has a +9.7 scoring margin this season. Against the spread, they are 6-4, including a 5-2 record as favorites. Their O/U record is also 6-4, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Josh Allen threw for 280 yards in week 10 against the Colts, completing 22 of 37 passes, but he had a passer rating of 60, with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Buffalo’s offense scored 10 points in the 4th quarter after being shut out in the 3rd. James Cook had 80 rushing yards on 19 carries, while Mack Hollins led the team with 86 receiving yards on 4 catches.
Heading into week 11, the Bills are 3rd in our offensive power rankings. They are 13th in passing yards per game (222.5) and 15th in rushing yards (120.7). Despite ranking 2nd in red zone attempts, they are 30th in conversion percentage, with a rate of 4.7%.
Buffalo’s defense came away with three interceptions in their 30-20 win over the Colts, despite allowing a completion percentage of 74.3%. The Bills’ secondary gave up 240 yards through the air, with Indianapolis finishing with 361 total yards. The Colts ran for 121 yards on just 22 attempts, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt.
Buffalo’s defense also recorded four sacks and limited the Colts to a 36.4% conversion rate on third down. Despite giving up some yards, their ability to generate turnovers was key in this game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 5-0 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Chiefs are 6-2-2 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. Bills Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -112 | +115 | -1.5 | +2.5 |
| Bills | -104 | -137 | +1.5 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: Kansas City +2.5
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Chiefs to cover as road underdogs in this week 11 matchup between the Chiefs and Bills. The point spread lines have the Chiefs at +2.5, and with our projected final score being 24-23 in favor of the Chiefs, they are our pick to cover.
For this game, we have a pick on the over/under, and our lean is to take the OVER, with a projected combined score of 47 points. The current O/U line is 45.5 points.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
See you Sunday, Bills Mafia.#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/BP0xgAJsE4
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 15, 2024
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