Free NFL Week 3 Pick: Chiefs vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Falcons on Sunday, September 22nd at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 3 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City Atlanta matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 3
Sunday Night Football
(2-0) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
Date: Sunday, September 22nd
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City -3.5 | Atlanta +3.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Kansas City -185 | Atlanta +155
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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Get ready, football fans! Week 3’s Sunday Night Football matchup is going to be a showdown for the ages as the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) hit the road to face the Atlanta Falcons (1-1).
The defending two-time Super Bowl champions are heading into their first road game, and trust me, they’re ready to make it 3-0. Vegas has the Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites, with a moneyline of -185, but don’t sleep on Atlanta—there’s value here if you know where to look.
Kansas City is a beast on the road, covering the spread 6-3-1 in their last 10 away games. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s been shaky at home, posting a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10. History favors the Chiefs, who lead the all-time series 7-3 and have won the last two meetings, but let’s not forget that the Falcons have been sneaky unpredictable.
The over/under sits at 46.5, and with Mahomes at the helm, you better believe the scoreboard will light up like a Christmas tree.
The Chiefs and Falcons did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Chiefs have a record of 2-1.
However, against the spread the Falcons went 2-1.
The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 50 points per game.
Kansas City Chiefs
Despite trailing heading into the 4th quarter, the Chiefs pulled off a 26-25 comeback win over the Bengals, improving their record to 2-0. Kansas City had to overcome a 22-17 deficit going into the 4th, but a late field goal from Harrison Butker and a defensive stop sealed the win. The Chiefs didn’t cover the spread in this one, as they were favored by -6.5 points, and the game finished with a 1-point margin in their favor.
Patrick Mahomes found Wanya Morris for a touchdown in the 3rd quarter to give the Chiefs a brief lead, but the Bengals responded to take the lead back. However, with 48 seconds left in the 4th, Mahomes drove the Chiefs into field goal range, and Butker converted to give Kansas City the win. The over/under line heading into the game was 47.5 points, and the teams combined for 51 points.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
The Chiefs’ offense finished with 149 yards on 32 rushing attempts in their 26-25 win over the Bengals, but they struggled on third down, converting just 12.5% of their chances. Despite their inability to sustain drives, they managed to come out on top. Patrick Mahomes completed 72% of his passes for 151 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He was sacked twice and finished with a passer rating of 80.
Isiah Pacheco led the team in rushing with 90 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt and adding 21 receiving yards. Rashee Rice was the top receiver for the Chiefs, with 75 yards and a touchdown. The offense finished with 19 first downs and 320 total yards.
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In their 26-25 win over the Bengals, the Chiefs’ defense gave up 246 passing yards and 74 rushing yards on 22 attempts. Cincinnati finished with 320 total yards of offense, and Kansas City’s defense allowed the Bengals to score two passing touchdowns.
The Chiefs’ defense recorded three sacks in the game and held the Bengals to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down. Despite giving up 246 passing yards, the Chiefs did win the quarterback hit differential, tackles for loss differential, and limited Cincinnati’s ground game.
Atlanta Falcons
Despite not scoring in the 1st quarter, the Falcons battled back and pulled off a 22-21 win over the Eagles, even though they were +5.5 point underdogs. Atlanta’s win was capped off by a late touchdown from Kirk Cousins to Drake London with just 38 seconds remaining. The Falcons also got a touchdown from Darnell Mooney with 1:20 left in the 4th to tie the game at 21.
Heading into the 4th quarter, the Falcons led 15-10 after a 9-point outburst in the 3rd quarter. Atlanta initially trailed 7-6 at halftime before taking the lead in the 3rd quarter on a field goal from Younghoe Koo. Koo added another field goal in the 3rd quarter, and Kirk Cousins found Mooney for a late 3rd quarter touchdown to briefly give Atlanta the lead.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Atlanta’s offense recorded 22 first downs in their 22-21 win over the Eagles. The Falcons rushed for 152 yards on 28 attempts, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. Kirk Cousins threw for 233 yards, completing 20 of 29 passes (69%) and two touchdowns. He was not sacked and finished with a passer rating of 117.
Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing with 97 yards and added 25 receiving yards. Darnell Mooney had 88 yards receiving, including a 41-yard touchdown catch. The Falcons struggled on third down, converting only 22.2% of their opportunities.
Despite giving up 186 rushing yards on 37 attempts, the Falcons’ defense played well in their 22-21 win over the Eagles. Philadelphia finished with 365 total yards, but Atlanta held them to just 179 yards through the air. The Falcons’ defense also picked off one pass and limited the Eagles to a 46.2% conversion rate on third down.
Even though the Eagles had some success running the ball, the Falcons won the battle in the trenches, coming out ahead in both tackles for loss and quarterback hits. Atlanta’s defense also forced the Eagles to complete 76.7% of their passes, but they did allow one touchdown through the air.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Chiefs are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 3-7 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. Falcons Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -155 | -184 | -3 | -3.5 |
| Falcons | +130 | +154 | +3 | +3.5 |
4* Free Week 3 NFL Betting Prediction: Atlanta +3.5
Patrick Mahomes is dialed in, leading his squad to a perfect 2-0 start for the seventh time under Andy Reid, and they’re about to make it 3-0 come Sunday night. The Chiefs’ offense is relentless, and while Atlanta might put up a fight early, it won’t be enough to stop the Mahomes train. So, my expert call?
Our projected score for this Chiefs vs. Falcons matchup is 28-26 in favor of the Chiefs. Even though the Chiefs are the road favorites at -3.5, we like them to pull out a close victory in this week three matchup. Bet them on the moneyline.
For our best bet vs. the spread, we are leaning towards taking the Falcons to cover as home underdogs.
We’re backing the OVER in this one. We think it goes over 54, with the O/U sitting at 46.5.
Take Kansas City to cover the spread, and don’t be shy about hitting the over. This one’s going to be an absolute thriller!
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
The duo we didn’t know we needed pic.twitter.com/nYStXRoeGx
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) September 20, 2024
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