Free NFL Pick: Jaguars vs. Colts Odds
Looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Jaguars taking on the Colts on 12/28 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Jaguars Colts matchup.
2025 NFL Handicapping – Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
(11-4) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
Date: Dec 28, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
NFL Moneyline Odds: Jaguars -292 | Colts +236 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Jaguars -6.5 | Colts +6.5
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 48
Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Jaguars Colts free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Jaguars vs. Colts Gameday
As Week 17 arrives, the Jacksonville Jaguars head to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts in what technically qualifies as an AFC South showdown. Jacksonville, guided by head coach Liam Coen, enters at an impressive 11-4 and very much looks like a team that has its act together.
Indianapolis, led by Shane Steichen, sits at 8-7 and still has postseason hopes—though those hopes took a bit of a beating last week.
The Jaguars are rolling, fresh off a 34-20 win over the Denver Broncos. Trevor Lawrence continues to look comfortable running the offense, calmly piling up wins while making it look routine.
Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off a rough 48-27 loss to the 49ers, a game that raised plenty of questions and offered very few answers.
In the most recent meeting between these teams, Jacksonville handled Indianapolis 36-19. That result doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for the Colts, but they do get the benefit of playing at home, where they’ve posted a solid 6-2 record. Whether that’s enough to slow down the Jaguars is the real question.
The forecast calls for cool, overcast conditions in Indianapolis, although the retractable roof ensures weather won’t be an easy excuse. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM on FOX. Week 17, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts, we’re all hoping a great game is in store—at least on one sideline.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds & Last 5
The odds suggest this matchup could lean a bit one-sided. Jacksonville enters as a clear favorite with a -286 moneyline, while Indianapolis sits at +232, firmly in underdog territory.
Translation: Vegas has seen enough lately.
Jacksonville continues to justify that confidence with consistent play. The Jaguars’ 34-20 win over Denver was just the latest example of a team that finishes drives and avoids unnecessary drama. Indianapolis, on the other hand, followed up weeks of uneven play with a blowout loss to San Francisco, which didn’t help their case.
Recent head-to-head results don’t do the Colts many favors either. Jacksonville has controlled the matchup, including the 36-19 win earlier this season.
If the Colts plan to flip the script, they’ll need a noticeably sharper performance than what they showed last week.
Colts Stats
Indianapolis leans heavily on its rushing attack, ranking 8th in the league with 2,331 rushing yards. Jonathan Taylor remains the centerpiece, posting 1,489 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground, giving the Colts at least one reliable advantage.
The passing game has been less convincing, ranking 25th with 3,361 yards. Defensively, the Colts do create turnovers, sitting 4th in interceptions, but they’ve struggled badly with yardage, allowing 6,140 opponent yards, which ranks near the bottom of the league.
The recent losing streak tells the story. Five straight losses culminated in the 48-27 defeat to the 49ers, where even a productive game from Alec Pierce couldn’t stop the bleeding.
Injuries have only added to the problem, with multiple starters sidelined or limited, making consistency hard to find.
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Jaguars Stats
Jacksonville enters Week 17 riding a five-game winning streak and plenty of confidence. The 34-20 win over Denver highlighted an offense that moves the ball efficiently, with Trevor Lawrence throwing for 279 yards and three touchdowns without much fuss.
Travis Etienne Jr. continues to anchor the ground game with 999 rushing yards, while Parker Washington has emerged as a reliable target in the passing game. Offensively, the Jaguars have found balance, even if the defense hasn’t always made things easy.
Defensively, Jacksonville ranks near the bottom in opponent yards allowed, but they compensate with pressure and timely plays.
The Jaguars have 34 sacks and continue to force turnovers when needed. Injury concerns linger, but depth has carried them through recent weeks.
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Jaguars vs. Colts QB Matchup
Philip Rivers has stepped in for Indianapolis and provided steady, if limited, production. In his two appearances, he’s thrown for 397 yards and three touchdowns, avoiding interceptions and keeping things relatively clean.
Trevor Lawrence remains the clear headliner. Over 15 games, he’s thrown for 3,489 yards and 26 touchdowns, while adding value with his legs. He hasn’t been flashy every week, but he’s been effective, which tends to matter more.
If Rivers can keep pace and avoid mistakes, Indianapolis can stay competitive. If Lawrence continues doing what he’s been doing all season, Jacksonville likely stays in control.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts bottom line: unless the Colts suddenly fix their defensive issues, Jacksonville’s consistency and quarterback play should keep them comfortably in charge.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts Football Betting Trends
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in their last 6 regular-season games.
- Jacksonville is 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games as favorites.
- Also, the Jaguars have hit the over in their last 3 games following a win.
- The Colts have a 3-1 record against the spread as underdogs in their last 4 games.
- Additionally, Indianapolis is 6-2 straight up in their last 8 home games.
- The Colts have seen the total go over in 4 of their last 5 home games.
Jaguars Colts Free Pick: Over 48.5
Here is my Jaguars Colts free pick: Jacksonville has leaned into offense after wins, and the results have followed. The over has cashed in each of their last three games coming off a victory.
The Jaguars don’t get conservative when things are working. They keep pace high and force opponents to stay aggressive.
Indianapolis has played its part at home, with four of the last five games at Lucas Oil Stadium going over the total. Their games rarely stay tidy for long. Recent head-to-head meetings between these teams back that up.
When they match up, the scoreboard usually gets involved.
The Colts’ defense has struggled to limit yardage, ranking near the bottom in opponent offensive production. Because stops come inconsistently, drives tend to extend.
When defenses leak yards, totals don’t stay patient.
Jacksonville has enough firepower to exploit those gaps without needing perfect execution. A few clean stretches can stack points quickly.
Indianapolis can answer as well, especially when forced to keep up. Playing from behind usually pushes their tempo higher.
This total doesn’t require a shootout from start to finish. A couple productive quarters on each side gets it there. I’m siding with the over 48.5 and trusting the recent patterns to keep holding.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
🔙 at home sunday. pic.twitter.com/X6TwYnUDPV
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 24, 2025
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