Free NFL Week 4 Pick: Jaguars vs. Texans Odds
Looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Jaguars taking on the Texans on Sunday, September 29th at the NRG Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Jacksonville Houston matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(0-3) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (2-1)
Date: Sunday, September 29th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston TX
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Jacksonville +7 | Houston -7
NFL Moneyline Odds: Jacksonville +250 | Houston -313
NFL Betting Total: O/U 45.5
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It’s Week 4, and we’ve got an AFC South clash that’s sure to keep bettors on the edge of their seats! The Houston Texans (2-1) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) this Sunday at NRG Stadium. The Jaguars are desperate for a win, and with playoff implications already on the line, this matchup could be the spark they need to turn their season around.
On paper, Houston’s got the edge—they’ve dominated this rivalry, leading the series 29-15. The Texans are also laying 7 points as favorites, and while they’re just 2-3 ATS in their last five as favorites, they’ve been tough to beat at home. But don’t sleep on Jacksonville! They’re 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games, and a win here could completely shift the momentum of their season.
The Jaguars and Texans split their season series last year, with each team winning on the road. The Texans took the first game 37-17, while the Jaguars won the second game 24-21.
The Jaguars were heavy 7.5-point favorites in the first game, and the Texans’ win also resulted in an ATS win. The first game had an over/under line of 43.5 points, and the second game’s line was 48 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars’ 47-10 loss to the Bills dropped them to 0-3 for the season. Not only did they lose, but they were blown out, trailing 34-3 at halftime. Jacksonville was +4 point underdogs heading into the game, and their 37-point loss was well below that. The combined 57 points easily surpassed the O/U line of 46.5 points.
Jacksonville fell behind 13-0 after the 1st quarter and things didn’t get any better in the 2nd, as Buffalo added 21 points before the Jaguars managed a field goal to make it 34-3. The Jaguars did find the endzone twice in the 3rd quarter, with Trevor Lawrence throwing a touchdown to Christian Kirk and later adding another score with a 22-yard touchdown run from Travis Etienne Jr.
Jacksonville Jaguars Stats
The Jaguars’ offense struggled in a 47-10 loss to the Bills, managing just 10 points and 19 first downs. They were unable to establish a running game, with only 17 attempts for 92 yards. Trevor Lawrence was sacked five times and finished with 178 yards passing, completing 21 of 38 attempts. He threw one touchdown and ended with a passer rating of 65.
Christian Kirk led Jacksonville with 79 receiving yards, while Travis Etienne Jr. was the top rusher with 68 yards, 22 of which came on one run, and 17 receiving yards. The Jaguars also had a tough time on third down, converting just 15.4% of their opportunities.
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It was a tough game for the Jaguars’ defense in their 47-10 loss to the Bills. Not only did they allow 388 yards, but they also gave up four passing touchdowns and allowed Buffalo to convert on 54.5% of their third down attempts. The Jaguars didn’t record a single sack in the game and allowed the Bills to complete big plays down the field.
The Jaguars’ defense couldn’t even force the Bills’ offense into any negative plays, as they lost the tackles for loss differential and didn’t record any quarterback hits.
Houston Texans
Looking at the Texans’ most recent game, they fell behind quickly, trailing 14-0 to the Vikings after the 1st quarter and 21-0 by halftime. Houston managed to score in the 3rd quarter but still took a heavy 34-7 loss to Minnesota, dropping their record to 2-1. The Texans were on the road for this one and were still favored by -1.5, failing to cover the spread with their 27-point defeat.
Sam Darnold had a big game for the Vikings, throwing three touchdowns, two to Justin Jefferson and two to Aaron Jones. Houston’s only score came on a touchdown from C.J. Stroud to Nico Collins. The combined 41 points was under the over/under line of 46.5 points.
Houston Texans Stats
The Texans’ offense struggled in their 34-7 loss to the Vikings, managing just 38 rushing yards on 14 attempts. They also allowed five sacks and turned the ball over twice on interceptions. Despite these struggles, they did pick up 17 first downs and finished with 258 passing yards.
C.J. Stroud, who went 20/31 for 215 yards and one touchdown, was their leading passer. Stroud also threw two interceptions. Cam Akers led the team with 21 rushing yards, while Stefon Diggs had 94 receiving yards on 10 catches.
In their most recent game, the Texans’ defense gave up 156 passing yards and allowed the Vikings to complete four passes, all of which resulted in touchdowns. Despite this, the Texans’ pass rush did manage to get 4 sacks. The Texans’ run defense allowed 118 yards on 28 attempts. Overall, the Texans gave up 274 yards in their 34-7 loss to the Vikings.
The Texans’ defense struggled on third downs, allowing the Vikings to convert 46.2% of their third down attempts. Even though they were able to get to the quarterback with 4 sacks, they lost the QB hit differential and the tackles for loss differential in the game.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Jaguars are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Texans are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Jaguars are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Texans have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Jaguars’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Texans’ have an over/under record of 1-1-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Jaguars vs. Texans Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | +145 | +251 | +3.5 | +7 |
| Texans | -175 | -314 | -3.5 | -7 |
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: Jacksonville +7
The moneyline’s intriguing — Houston’s at -313 while Jacksonville’s at a juicy +250, giving some great value for those who believe in the Jags’ comeback potential.
Our pick vs. the spread is to take Jacksonville to cover as road underdogs in this week four matchup against Houston. The Jaguars are currently sitting at +7, and we have them not only covering but winning by a score of 20-17. They’re finally going to get the ship turned around in the 2024 season.
As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 45.5 points, our lean is to take the UNDER, with a projected combined score of 34 points.
Whether you’re backing the Jags for the upset or riding with the Texans to cover, this matchup has all the ingredients for a thrilling bet. Stay tuned for more free NFL picks and analysis all season long—this is where the action gets hot!
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
It’s Jacksonville week‼️ Drop a 🤘 if you’ll be here on Sunday pic.twitter.com/0rT8gJqVhB
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 26, 2024
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