Free NFL Pick: Jaguars vs. Broncos Odds
Looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos Free NFL predictions? NFL betting sees the Jaguars taking on the Broncos on 9/20 at Empower Field at Mile High, in Denver. This free NFL football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Jaguars Broncos matchup.
2026 NFL Handicapping – Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos
(1-0) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos (0-1)
Date: Sep 20, 2026
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO
NFL Moneyline Odds: Jaguars +129 | Broncos -151 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NFL Betting Odds: Jaguars +3 | Broncos -3
NFL Football Gambling Total: O/U: 45.5
Here’s why I’m backing a Denver ATS bet below in my Jaguars Broncos free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Jaguars vs. Broncos Gameday
Jacksonville heads west Sunday for a Week 2 matchup against Denver at Empower Field at Mile High. Kickoff is set for 4:05 PM ET on CBS, with the Jaguars trying to improve to 2-0 and the Broncos attempting to avoid an 0-2 start.
Jacksonville couldn’t have asked for much more from its opener. The Jaguars hammered Cleveland 34-10 behind four Trevor Lawrence touchdown passes, five defensive sacks and a 24-0 advantage before the Browns finally scored.
Jacksonville arrives with nine straight regular-season wins, which is a fairly inconvenient visitor for Denver’s home opener.
Denver has had considerably less time to enjoy September. The Broncos lost 31-10 at Kansas City on Monday night, managing only 176 total yards while allowing the Chiefs to rush for 220.
Now they get a short week and the team that beat them here last December.
Jacksonville won that meeting 34-20, snapping Denver’s 11-game home winning streak. It was the Broncos’ only regular-season loss at Empower Field in 2025, so nobody in orange needs much help remembering this matchup.
Week 2, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos, we’re all hoping a great game is in store.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos Odds & Last 5
Denver opened as a slight home favorite, with the Broncos laying 2.5 points and Jacksonville getting +2.5. The supplied moneyline has Denver at -149 and Jacksonville at +126, with the opening total sitting at 45.5.
The spread has been considerably more stable than the total.
Jacksonville enters with nine consecutive regular-season victories dating back to last year. That streak includes the 34-20 win in Denver, when Lawrence threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns while adding another score on the ground.
The Jaguars started 2026 in similar fashion.
Lawrence threw four touchdowns against Cleveland, and Jacksonville led 31-0 before allowing its first touchdown. The Jaguars finished with 360 yards and controlled a game that was essentially over long before the fourth quarter.
Denver’s opener offered the opposite experience. Kansas City controlled the ground game, limited the Broncos to 176 yards and turned a competitive first half into a 31-10 beating.
Mile High remains the obvious counterargument.
Denver went 8-1 there during the 2025 regular season. Of course, Jacksonville supplied the “1,” because apparently the schedule enjoys recycling uncomfortable memories.
Broncos Stats From Last Season
Denver’s offense produced only 176 yards against Kansas City, including 131 net passing yards and 45 on the ground. The Broncos averaged 3.1 yards per play and managed only 13 first downs.
Bo Nix finished 17-of-29 for 131 yards.
He threw one touchdown and one interception, with Evan Engram catching the score. Denver never generated enough explosive plays to loosen Kansas City’s defense, and the Broncos’ longest completion went for only 21 yards.
Denver managed 176 yards Monday, which makes “more offense” a refreshingly uncomplicated item on this week’s to-do list.
The defense had problems of its own.
Denver allowed 392 total yards, including 220 on the ground. The Broncos also missed 28 tackles, an ugly number for a defense that entered the season expecting to remain among the league’s best units.
There were at least some positives against the pass.
Kansas City finished with only 172 net passing yards, and Denver didn’t allow the Chiefs to consistently attack downfield. That matters with Lawrence arriving after throwing four touchdown passes in Jacksonville’s opener.
The current injury report deserves attention. Marvin Mims Jr. missed Thursday practice with a foot injury, while running back RJ Harvey improved from a Wednesday nonparticipant estimate to limited with a hamstring issue.
Jaguars Stats From Last Season
Jacksonville opened the season by doing almost everything right against Cleveland. The Jaguars scored 34 points, produced 360 yards and didn’t commit an offensive turnover.
Trevor Lawrence supplied the headline numbers.
Lawrence completed 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Jacksonville spread those scores around while repeatedly taking advantage of Cleveland’s inability to get off the field.
The defense was equally effective.
Jacksonville held Cleveland to 272 total yards, recorded five sacks and intercepted Deshaun Watson once. The Browns didn’t reach the end zone until the fourth quarter, when the outcome had already stopped being particularly mysterious.
The Jaguars also ran for 126 yards.
That balance could become especially important after Denver surrendered 220 rushing yards to Kansas City. Jacksonville doesn’t need Lawrence throwing four touchdowns every Sunday if the ground game can keep Denver from turning this into a pure pass-rush contest.
There is one significant injury development. B.J. Green II has been placed on injured reserve with an elbow injury, while Brian Thomas Jr. has also appeared on the Week 2 injury report.
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Jaguars vs. Broncos QB Matchup
Trevor Lawrence couldn’t have started much better. He completed 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions as Jacksonville rolled past Cleveland.
That performance continued a run that started late last season.
Lawrence has been dealing touchdowns lately, and Denver already received the full demonstration in this stadium last December.
Lawrence threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns in Jacksonville’s 34-20 win here last season. He also ran for a score, helping hand Denver its only regular-season home loss of 2025.
Bo Nix comes into the rematch needing a reset.
The Denver quarterback completed 17 of 29 passes for 131 yards, one touchdown and one interception against Kansas City. He had little help from a running game that produced only 45 yards, leaving Denver without much ability to dictate anything offensively.
Home should provide a friendlier setting.
Nix and the Broncos were excellent at Mile High last season, but Jacksonville already proved it’s comfortable playing there. Denver needs more early-down production and enough rushing success to prevent Lawrence from spending Sunday watching his defense chase Nix around obvious passing situations.
Jaguars vs. Broncos bottom line: Jacksonville arrives with nine straight wins and fresh memories of beating Denver here, but Mile High has been brutal to almost everyone else, making this a much better test of whether Monday night was a Broncos problem or merely a Chiefs problem.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos Football Betting Trends
- The Jaguars are undefeated in their last 9 regular season games against the spread, going 9-0.
- Also, in their last 4 away games, Jacksonville has a 4-0 record against the spread.
- The Jaguars have excelled as underdogs, achieving a 3-0 record against the spread in recent games.
- The Broncos have had success straight up as favorites, winning 9 of their last 10 regular season games.
- Additionally, Denver has a strong home record, winning 7 of their last 8 home games straight up.
- However, the Broncos have struggled against the spread as favorites, with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games.
Jaguars Broncos Free Pick: Broncos -2.5
Here is my Jaguars Broncos free pick: Broncos -2.5 is my play Sunday at Mile High. Denver looked awful against Kansas City, producing 176 yards and 10 points while allowing 220 rushing yards. That’s quite a Week 1 hangover for a team that won 14 games last season. I’m willing to buy the bounce-back at home. Denver went 8-1 at Empower Field during the 2025 regular season, with Jacksonville responsible for the only loss.
That rematch should have everybody’s attention.
Jacksonville won here last December, so Denver shouldn’t need Sean Payton to circle anything on the calendar.
Trevor Lawrence was excellent against Cleveland, throwing four touchdowns without an interception. The Jaguars have also won nine straight regular-season games, so laying points against them isn’t exactly the relaxing option.
Denver’s defense needs a much cleaner afternoon.
The Broncos missed 28 tackles against Kansas City, turning routine plays into a 31-point headache. That should be correctable, and the pass defense still held Mahomes to modest numbers. Bo Nix is the bigger concern after Denver’s offense went nowhere Monday night.
Jacksonville travels west into altitude after beating Denver here last season, while the Broncos return home needing a response. I expect Payton to lean on the run, simplify things for Nix and let the defense handle more of the work.
Broncos -2.5 is my play.
Today’s NFL Free Pick
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Denver Broncos on X
There’s no place like home. 🏠#JAXvsDEN pic.twitter.com/7c7iqA4u0b
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 18, 2026
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