Free NFL Week 6 Pick: Jaguars vs. Bears Odds
Looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Jaguars taking on the Bears on Sunday, October 13th at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 6 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Jacksonville Chicago matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 6
(1-4) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (3-2)
Date: Sunday, October 13th
Time: 9:30 ET
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London None
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Jacksonville +2.5 | Chicago -2.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Jacksonville +112 | Chicago -133
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44
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Last season, the Jaguars and Bears did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Bears have the leg up at 2-1. The Bears also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 44 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville picked up their first win of the season in week 5, narrowly defeating the Colts 37-34 at home. The Jaguars were favored by 3.5 points but couldn’t cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 2-3. They are 0-2 against the spread as favorites and 2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is also 2-3, with their games averaging 48 points compared to an average line of 45.3.
Heading into week 6, Jacksonville has a 1-4 record and ranks 24th in our NFL power rankings. We give them a 10% chance of making the playoffs and a 2.7% chance of winning the AFC South. The Jaguars are 1-1 at home but 0-3 on the road, including a 37-point loss to the Bills in week 3.
Jacksonville Jaguars Stats
After a strong performance in week 5, Trevor Lawrence threw for 371 yards, completing 28 of 34 passes with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Brian Thomas Jr. led the receiving corps with 5 catches for 122 yards, while Tank Bigsby rushed for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 carries. Jacksonville scored 17 points in the 4th quarter against the Colts.
Currently, the Jaguars rank 19th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 19.4 points per game (20th in the NFL) and 327.8 yards per game (14th). They are 19th in passing yards and 11th in rushing yards. On 3rd down, they are converting only 25.9% of their attempts, which ranks 27th in the league.
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In their 37-34 win over the Colts, the Jaguars’ defense allowed 447 offensive yards. Indianapolis had success through the air, with 348 passing yards on 34 completions. The Jaguars struggled to defend the pass, giving up three touchdowns and allowing the Colts to complete 75.6% of their passes. On the ground, the Colts managed just 99 yards on 20 attempts.
Despite their struggles in coverage, the Jaguars’ defense managed to come up with four sacks and held the Colts to a 50% third-down conversion rate. Jacksonville also had five more quarterback hits than the Colts and one more tackle for loss.
Chicago Bears
With two straight wins, the Bears now sit at 3-2, including a 36-10 victory over the Panthers in week 5. Chicago was a 4-point favorite in that game and easily covered the spread. The over/under line was 40 points, and the teams combined for 46, marking the Bears’ second consecutive over.
Chicago is 4-1 against the spread this season and has a +5.6 scoring margin. They rank 18th in our NFL power rankings and have a 33.2% chance of making the playoffs. Their odds of winning the NFC North are 5.7%.
Chicago Bears Stats
Caleb Williams has been on a roll, posting a passer rating of 126 in week 5, with 304 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20/29 passing. He avoided interceptions and was sacked just once. In week 4, he threw for 157 yards (17/23) and a touchdown, and in week 3, he had 363 passing yards, with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. D’Andre Swift led the rushing attack in week 5 with 73 yards on 21 carries, while DJ Moore had 5 catches for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Heading into week 6, the Bears rank 23rd in our offensive power rankings. They are 15th in the NFL, scoring 22.6 points per game, and 24th in total yards, averaging 287.2 per game. Chicago ranks 21st in passing yards and 29th in rushing yards per game, despite being 13th in rushing attempts. They are 20th in the league in 3rd down conversions, with a rate of 33.8%.
In their most recent game against the Panthers, the Bears’ defense allowed just 172 passing yards on 22 completions, holding Carolina to 4.9 yards per attempt through the air. Chicago’s defense was also tough on third downs, allowing just a 25% conversion rate. They came away with four sacks and one interception, while also not allowing any passing touchdowns.
The Bears’ run defense gave up 120 yards on only 19 attempts, with one big run inflating their numbers, as one of the Panthers’ runs went for 59 yards. Overall, Chicago’s defense was dominant in the 36-10 win.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Jaguars are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Jaguars are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bears have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Jaguars’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Bears’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
Jaguars vs. Bears Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | -110 | +112 | -1.5 | +2.5 |
| Bears | -108 | -132 | +1.5 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 6 NFL Betting Prediction: Chicago -2.5
Our model has the Bears coming out on top by a score of 26-20 in their week six matchup against the Jaguars. Even though the Jaguars are the slight favorites at +2.5, we like the Bears to cover as home favorites.
For this one, we are going with the Bears to cover and win vs. the spread. And with the over/under line sitting at 44 points, our recommendation is to take the over, with a projected combined score of 46 points.
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