Free NFL Week 3 Pick: Jaguars vs. Bills Odds
Looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Jaguars taking on the Bills on Monday, September 23rd at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 3 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Jacksonville Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 3
Monday Night Football
(0-2) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0)
Date: Monday, September 23rd
Time: 7:30 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Jacksonville +5.5 | Buffalo -5.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Jacksonville +210 | Buffalo -257
NFL Betting Total: O/U 45.5
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Alright, football fanatics, let’s break it down! The Jacksonville Jaguars are heading into hostile territory, and this is where it gets fun. With a strong 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 road games, the Jags know how to battle on the road, but this week? Oh, this week is different. They’re facing a juggernaut in the Buffalo Bills, and it’s time to see if Jacksonville can measure up to one of the NFL’s elite squads.
Historically, Jacksonville’s been hit or miss on Monday Night Football, sitting at 8-8. But don’t forget, Coach Doug Pederson thrives under the lights with an impressive 5-3 MNF record. Now, here’s the kicker—the Jaguars are off to a brutal 0-2 start for the fourth time since 2015. But this is where I’m throwing down the gauntlet: they’re turning it around this week!
As +4.5 point underdogs, the Jaguars pulled off a 25-20 upset over the Bills in the only meeting between the two teams last year.
The combined score of 45 points fell short of the O/U line of 48.5 points.
This was a good win for the Jaguars, as they not only won the game straight-up but also covered the spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite a strong 3rd quarter, the Jaguars fell to the Browns 18-13, dropping their record to 0-2. Jacksonville was favored by -3, but their 5-point loss meant they didn’t cover the spread. The over/under line was 41.5 points, and the teams combined for just 31.
Jacksonville fell behind early, with the Browns leading 7-0 after the 1st quarter. The Jaguars managed a field goal in the 2nd quarter but trailed 13-3 at halftime. In the 3rd quarter, Trevor Lawrence found Brian Thomas Jr. for a touchdown, and a field goal early in the 4th brought them within 3 points. However, the Browns added a late touchdown to secure the win.
Jacksonville Jaguars Stats
The Jaguars’ offense struggled in their 18-13 loss to the Browns, managing just 18 first downs and 196 yards passing on 30 attempts. They were held to 46.7% completions and failed to score a passing touchdown. Jacksonville’s running game put up 127 yards on 21 attempts, with Trevor Lawrence leading the team with 45 rushing yards.
Despite being the leading rusher, Lawrence had a tough day passing, going 14/30 for 220 yards and a passer rating of 71. He was sacked four times and didn’t throw any interceptions. Travis Etienne Jr. rushed for 52 yards and scored one rushing touchdown, while Brian Thomas Jr. led the Jaguars with 94 receiving yards.
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In their 18-13 loss to the Browns, the Jaguars’ defense gave up 297 yards and held Cleveland to 172 passing yards. The Jaguars’ run defense allowed 125 yards on 29 attempts (4.3 yards per attempt). Despite the loss, they didn’t allow a passing touchdown and limited the Browns to a 14.3% conversion rate on third down.
Jacksonville’s defense recorded two sacks and held Cleveland to a 64.7% completion percentage. The Jaguars also won the quarterback hit battle, finishing with one more hit on the quarterback than the Browns.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are now 2-0 after a 31-10 win over the Dolphins. Buffalo went into the game as +2.5 point underdogs on the road and easily covered the spread with their 21-point victory. The game finished with a combined 41 points, falling short of the over/under line of 49 points.
After the teams traded touchdowns in the 1st quarter, Buffalo took control in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Dolphins 17-3. Heading into the 4th, the Bills led 31-10 and didn’t allow Miami to score in the final quarter. Josh Allen threw a 17-yard touchdown to James Cook in the 1st quarter, and the Bills added two more touchdowns in the 2nd quarter to put the game out of reach.
Buffalo Bills Stats
The Bills’ offense managed just 13 first downs in their 31-10 win over the Dolphins, but they were efficient enough to come out on top. Buffalo finished with 139 yards through the air on 19 attempts, with Josh Allen completing 13 passes (68.4%) for 139 yards and one touchdown. The running game produced 108 yards on 26 attempts, with James Cook leading the way with 78 yards and two touchdowns, including a long run of 49 yards.
Khalil Shakir was Buffalo’s top receiver in the game, finishing with 54 yards on five catches. The Bills were 4.2 yards per attempt on the ground and didn’t allow a sack on Allen in the game.
In their 31-10 win over the Dolphins, the Bills’ defense came up with three interceptions, despite allowing 139 rushing yards on 34 attempts. Miami’s ground game averaged 4.1 yards per attempt. The Bills defended the pass well, giving up just 212 yards through the air, with a collective quarterback hit differential of +5 and six tackles for loss.
Buffalo’s defense also limited Miami to a 46.7% third-down conversion rate and allowed just one passing touchdown. Although the Dolphins had 351 total yards, the Bills’ defense played a significant role in the victory.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Jaguars are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Jaguars’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Jaguars vs. Bills Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | +170 | +210 | +4.5 | +5.5 |
| Bills | -205 | -259 | -4.5 | -5.5 |
4* Free Week 3 NFL Betting Prediction: Jacksonville +5.5
Now, don’t get me wrong—this won’t be a walk in the park. Sean McDermott’s Bills are rolling, with eight wins in their last nine games, regular season, and playoffs combined. But with the Jaguars’ resilience on the road and Pederson’s MNF prowess, I’m calling it now: Jacksonville will shake off the rust, rise to the challenge, and give the Bills a run for their money.
Our pick vs. the spread for this week three matchup between the Jaguars and Bills is to take the Jaguars to cover as road underdogs. Right now, the point spread lines have the Jaguars at +5.5, and we have the Bills winning by a score of 33-31. We like the Jags to cover.
As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 45.5 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 64 points. This is a great opportunity to get some action on this week three matchup. Expect fireworks and a ton of offense in this one.
So get your bets in and brace yourselves for some MNF magic!
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
The defense has impressed.
Watch the latest Bills by the Numbers on our YouTube: https://t.co/sIXq5jvg5C@FDSportsbook | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/UVoi6HblYX
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 20, 2024
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