Free NFL Week 13 Pick: Colts vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Colts taking on the Patriots on Sunday, December 1st at the Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Indianapolis New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
(5-7) Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots (3-9)
Date: Sunday, December 1st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Indianapolis -2.5 | New England +2.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Indianapolis -148 | New England +124
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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The Colts and Patriots are set to renew one of the league’s classic rivalries in Week 13, bringing a fresh twist with young quarterbacks Anthony Richardson and Drake Maye at the helm.
Historically, this series has been dominated by New England, holding a commanding 49-30 edge in the regular season and a 4-1 postseason record.
At Gillette Stadium, the Pats have been especially dominant, boasting a 10-2 record against Indianapolis. But this season’s matchup is about the future, as both teams try to climb out of their respective ruts.
Drake Maye has been a bright spot for New England, showcasing his dual-threat abilities with 286 rushing yards at an impressive 8.7 yards per carry, ranking second among AFC rookies. He’s been particularly effective at home, throwing for over 225 yards and multiple touchdowns in two of his last three games at Gillette.
Over the last three times playing each other, the Colts have a record of 2-1. The Colts also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 29 points per game leading to an over/under record of 0-3.
Who can forget all the great games in this series? Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady! I wish we could turn back the clock to watch those two go at it again.
Indianapolis Colts
Heading into week 13, the Colts sit 25th in our NFL power rankings and have a 23.1% chance of making the playoffs. They are 5-7 overall, which includes a 2-4 record on the road and a 3-3 mark at home. In division play, Indianapolis is 1-3, putting them 2nd in the AFC South. They are 9th in the AFC standings.
After a week 11 win over the Jets, the Colts couldn’t keep the momentum going, losing 24-6 to the Lions in week 12. They were 7-point underdogs in that game but couldn’t cover the spread. This season, Indianapolis is 8-4 against the spread, with a +2.7 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 5-7, with their games averaging 43 points per contest.
Indianapolis Colts Stats
Heading into week 13, the Colts rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are 20th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 20.2, and 22nd in yards per game with 316.3. Indianapolis ranks 23rd in passing attempts and 24th in passing yards per game, averaging 199.7. On the ground, they are 21st in rushing attempts and 17th in rushing yards per game, with 116.7. The Colts rank 23rd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage, converting 36% of their attempts, and are 16th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 10th in red zone attempts.
Anthony Richardson struggled in week 12, completing just 11 of 28 passes for 172 yards in a 24-6 loss to the Lions. He did not throw a touchdown or an interception. Michael Pittman Jr. led the team with 6 catches for 96 yards, while Richardson added 61 rushing yards on 10 carries. The Colts were shut out in the second half and converted only 3 of 12 3rd-down attempts, failing to score on either of their red zone trips.
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In their 24-6 loss to the Lions, the Colts’ defense allowed 390 yards and 137 rushing yards on 33 attempts. Despite the tough game, they did manage to sack the quarterback three times and hit the quarterback three more times than the Lions.
Indianapolis allowed the Lions to convert on 60% of their third down attempts. In the passing game, the Colts gave up 253 yards on 26 completions, with Detroit finishing with a 72.2% completion rate. However, the Colts’ defense held the Lions without a passing touchdown.
New England Patriots
Heading into week 13, the Patriots are 3-9 and rank 31st in our NFL power rankings. New England has lost two straight games, including a 19-point defeat to the Dolphins in week 12. Before that, they fell to the Rams at home in week 11 but picked up a win over the Bears in week 10. The Patriots were +6 underdogs in that game and won 19-3.
New England has a -7.1 scoring margin this season and is 4-7-1 against the spread. They’ve been the underdog in all of their games so far. Our projections give them a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. In O/U betting, the over has hit in two straight Patriots games, and their O/U record is 7-5.
New England Patriots Stats
New England’s offense has struggled this season, ranking 29th in the NFL in points per game (16.4) and last in passing yards per game (167.2) and total yards per game (280.1). They are 26th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 34.1% success rate, but have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 8th in conversion percentage despite being 13th in attempts.
Drake Maye threw for 222 yards (22/37) and a touchdown in week 12, but the Patriots were shut out until scoring 15 points in the 4th quarter against Miami. DeMario Douglas led the team with 62 receiving yards in that game but is questionable for week 13 with an ankle injury.
In their 34-15 loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots’ defense gave up 4 passing touchdowns and allowed 72.5% of Miami’s passes to be completed. They gave up 308 yards through the air and struggled to defend the big play, as the Dolphins averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Despite this, the Patriots’ run defense was solid, allowing just 65 yards on 24 attempts.
New England’s defense struggled to get off the field, as the Dolphins converted on 66.7% of their third down attempts. They managed just two sacks and had a tough time generating consistent pressure, losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials in the game.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Colts are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Colts are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Colts’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Colts vs. Patriots Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | -125 | -148 | -2 | -2.5 |
| Patriots | +105 | +124 | +2 | +2.5 |
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: New England +2.5
Indianapolis has had no answers for New England in Foxborough, losing seven of their last eight games there. With the Colts stumbling to a 1-4 record over their past five games and just 3-6 against the spread in their last nine against the Patriots, the odds seem stacked against them.
Our projected score for this week 13 matchup between the Colts and Patriots is 24-20 in favor of the Patriots. With the Patriots being 2.5-point home underdogs, we are locking in our pick on them to cover the spread and win this one. I’m just not sold on Anthony Richardson yet.
For Indy to win they have to change the narrative with Richardson leading a unit desperate for consistency. While their last meeting—a 10-6 Colts victory—was a snoozer, this matchup could bring some much-needed spark.
With a betting line of Indianapolis -2.5 and an over/under set at 42.5, this game might come down to whether New England can exploit its home-field dominance or if Indy can find a way to slow Maye and flip the script in hostile territory.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at 42.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the over, as our projections have these teams finishing with 44 combined points.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Bringing meals and happiness to families in our community!
The Kraft Family, @PatsFoundation & @goodwillboston teamed up for the annual Thanksgiving in a Basket. pic.twitter.com/Nt1TBUlzrM
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 27, 2024
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