Free NFL Week 5 Pick: Colts vs. Jaguars Odds
Looking for Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Colts taking on the Jaguars on Sunday, October 6th at the EverBank Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Indianapolis Jacksonville matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(2-2) Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Date: Sunday, October 6th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville FL
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Indianapolis +3 | Jacksonville -3
NFL Moneyline Odds: Indianapolis +127 | Jacksonville -152
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46
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The Colts come in at 2-2, but let’s be real—playing in Jacksonville has been a nightmare for them. They’re just 1-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine trips to Jacksonville and haven’t won outright on the road against the Jags since 2014.
If you’re betting, Jacksonville is a rock-solid -3 favorite, and with the Colts giving up 235 passing yards per game (26th in the league), Trevor Lawrence should light it up.
The Jaguars won both of their matchups against the Colts last season, with their first win coming by a score of 31-21 on the road. In the second game, the Jaguars won 37-20. In both games, the Jaguars covered the spread, as they were favored by -3.5 in game one and -4 in game two.
The over/under line for the first game was 45.5 points, and the teams combined for 52 points.
In the second game, the line was 44 points, and the combined score was 57 points.
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is now 2-2 after their 27-24 win over the Steelers. The Colts were +2.5 point underdogs heading into the game, and their 3-point win also gave them the ATS win. The combined 51 points easily surpassed the over/under line of 41 points.
Indianapolis got off to a great start, leading 14-0 after the 1st quarter and adding a field goal in the 2nd to lead 17-3 at the half. The Colts didn’t score in the 3rd quarter, and the Steelers added a touchdown, but a strong 4th quarter, where they put up 10 points, ensured the Colts came out on top. Justin Fields and Najee Harris added late touchdowns for the Steelers, but it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.
Indianapolis Colts Stats
Indianapolis’ offense picked up 22 first downs in their 27-24 win over the Steelers, with Joe Flacco throwing for 168 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts’ running game saw Jonathan Taylor rush for 88 yards on 21 carries, including a long run of 21 yards. Flacco completed 61% of his passes and had a passer rating of 105.
Michael Pittman Jr. was a key target for the Colts, finishing with 113 yards on six receptions. Overall, Indianapolis had 225 passing yards on 30 attempts, converting 53.3% of their third down chances. Flacco was sacked twice in the game.
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In their 27-24 win over the Steelers, the Colts’ defense allowed 282 passing yards on 22 completions, with Pittsburgh converting on 46.2% of their third down attempts. Despite giving up 404 total yards, Indianapolis held the Steelers to 122 yards rushing on 30 attempts (4.1 per attempt). The Colts’ defense also recorded four sacks and had one more QB hit and tackle for loss than Pittsburgh.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville took a 10-7 lead over the Texans after the 1st quarter in their most recent game but ended up losing 24-20, dropping their record to 0-4 for the season. The Jaguars were +5.5 point underdogs heading into the game, and their 4-point loss meant they covered the spread. The over/under line was set at 44.5 points, and the teams combined for 44 points.
After a 41-yard field goal from Cam Little in the 1st quarter, the Jaguars fell behind in the 2nd quarter. Houston scored a touchdown with 13:45 remaining in the 2nd to take the lead, and although the Jaguars tied the game at 20 in the 3rd quarter with a touchdown from Trevor Lawrence to Brian Thomas Jr., the Texans retook the lead for good with 11:21 remaining in the 4th. Jacksonville missed a chance to take the lead early in the 4th when Trevor Lawrence threw an interception in the endzone with 14:15 left in the 4th.
Jacksonville Jaguars Stats
The Jaguars’ offense managed 17 first downs and 158 rushing yards on 24 attempts in their 24-20 loss to the Texans. Despite their success on the ground, they struggled in the passing game, with just 155 yards through the air. Trevor Lawrence completed 18 of 33 passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns.
Brian Thomas Jr. was the leading receiver with 86 yards and a touchdown. Tank Bigsby led the team in rushing with 90 yards, including a 58-yard run. The Jaguars’ offense converted on only 33.3% of their third down attempts.
In their 24-20 loss to the Texans, the Jaguars’ defense allowed 27 completions for 334 yards through the air. The Jaguars struggled on third downs, allowing the Texans to convert 53.8% of their third down attempts. Despite this, they did manage to come up with two sacks and had more QB hits than their opponents.
The Jaguars’ run defense held up better, allowing just 101 yards on 26 attempts (3.9 yards per attempt). Overall, the defense gave up 435 yards to the Texans, with two passing touchdowns and a 67.5% completion rate against them.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Colts are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Colts are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Jaguars have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Colts’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Jaguars’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Colts vs. Jaguars Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | +120 | +127 | +2.5 | +3 |
| Jaguars | -142 | -152 | -2.5 | -3 |
4* Free Week 5 NFL Betting Prediction: Jaguars -3
Are you ready for an electrifying Week 5 showdown? The Jacksonville Jaguars host their AFC South rivals, the Indianapolis Colts, in a matchup that has all the makings of another Jacksonville home-field domination. The Jags have an eight-game home winning streak against Indy, their longest against any opponent in franchise history.
This team is riding high, sweeping the Colts last year for the first time since 2017, and now they’ve got their sights set on making it nine straight in Jacksonville.
With the point spread sitting at 46, we are leaning towards taking the under in this week five matchup between the Colts and Jaguars. Our prediction is that these teams finish with 35 combined points OR LESS, making the under a good value pick. As for a point-spread pick, we like the Jags to win this one 21-14. Even though the Jaguars are the home favorites at -3, we are recommending taking them to cover as home favorites.
But here’s where it gets really fun: Jacksonville is celebrating its 30th season and will debut their long-anticipated “Prowler Throwback” uniforms. You think that doesn’t matter? Think again! Momentum is everything in the NFL, and when you’ve got the home crowd roaring, history on your side, and a hot quarterback in Lawrence, it’s hard to bet against the Jags.
So what’s the play? Jacksonville -3 looks like a sweet spot. The Jags are 8-5 against the AFC South under Doug Pederson and 3-1 against the Colts. Plus, Indianapolis struggles in October (1-6 SU in their last seven games played in this month). Lay the points with Jacksonville and enjoy watching Lawrence carve up a leaky Colts secondary.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Spotted 📹#INDvsJAX pic.twitter.com/qAhi5VxFFr
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) October 2, 2024
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