Free NFL Week 16 Pick: Texans vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Texans taking on the Chiefs on Saturday, December 21st at the Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Houston Kansas City matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
(9-5) Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Date: Saturday, December 21st
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Houston -2 | Kansas City +2
NFL Moneyline Odds: Houston -133 | Kansas City +111
NFL Betting Total: O/U 40
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Get ready for a sizzling Week 16 showdown as the Houston Texans (9-5) take on the powerhouse Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs lead the all-time series 9-5, and on 12/18/2022 they Chiefs won the last meeting 30-24 in overtime in Houston.
This matchup has all the makings of a thriller, with Houston riding a late-season surge and Kansas City looking to prove why they’re the team to beat. Over their last five meetings, the Chiefs have taken three wins against the Texans, but Houston’s recent December form is hard to ignore.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Chiefs have the leg up at 3-0. The Chiefs also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 63 points per game leading to an over/under record of 3-0.
Houston Texans
With a 9-5 record, the Texans hold the top spot in the AFC South, and our projections give them a 100% chance of winning the division. They rank 11th in our power rankings heading into week 16. Houston has won two straight, including a 20-12 victory over the Dolphins in week 15. They were 2.5-point favorites in that game and covered the spread, but the 32 combined points fell short of the 46.5-point O/U line.
Houston is 6-7-1 against the spread this season, with a +2 scoring margin. They are 4-6-1 ATS as favorites and 2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record stands at 4-9-1, with the under hitting in their last two games.
Houston Texans Stats
Heading into week 16, the Texans rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 11th in the NFL in points per game (23.4) and 18th in yards per game (324.2). Houston has been strong early in games, ranking 5th in 1st-quarter scoring. C.J. Stroud threw for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 15, completing 18 of 26 passes without an interception.
Joe Mixon led the Texans in receiving in week 15 with 5 catches for 33 yards, while Dare Ogunbowale had a 35-yard run. Houston converted 5 of 13 3rd-down attempts and scored on 2 of 3 red zone trips against the Dolphins.
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The Texans’ defense was tough to run against in their 20-12 win over the Dolphins, as Miami managed just 52 yards on 19 attempts. Although they allowed 172 passing yards, Houston defended the pass well, giving up just 4.3 yards per attempt. The Texans also intercepted three passes and held Miami to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down.
Despite allowing 72.5% completions, the Texans limited the Dolphins to just one touchdown. Houston’s defense also recorded three sacks and forced Miami to settle for 224 total yards.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs bounced back from their week 11 loss to the Bills with three straight wins, including a 21-7 victory over the Browns in week 15. Kansas City was favored by 4 points and covered the spread, bringing their record to 13-1. The win extended their lead in the AFC, and they now have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and winning the AFC West.
Despite their strong record, the Chiefs rank 12th in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +5 points per game and are 5-8-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 6-8, with the under hitting in three straight games.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Heading into week 16, the Chiefs rank 9th in our offensive power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.5, and sit 14th in total yards per game with 336.3. Kansas City leads the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 50.8% success rate, and they rank 5th in passing attempts per game. However, they are 22nd in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 4th in red zone attempts.
In week 15, Patrick Mahomes threw for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19/38 passing without an interception. Xavier Worthy led the team with 46 receiving yards on 6 catches, while Kareem Hunt had 45 rushing yards on 13 carries. The Chiefs scored all 21 of their points in the first three quarters against the Browns.
The Chiefs’ defense came up with four interceptions in their 21-7 win over the Browns, despite giving up 139 rushing yards on just 21 attempts. They held Cleveland to 127 passing yards and a 3.7 yards per attempt average. Kansas City’s defense also had five sacks and held the Browns to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Texans are 2-2-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Texans are 5-4-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chiefs have gone 6-3-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Texans’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Chiefs’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Texans vs. Chiefs Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | +170 | -131 | +4.5 | -2 |
| Chiefs | -205 | +110 | -4.5 | +2 |
4* Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: Houston -2
The Texans have gone 4-1 straight up in their last five December games and are covering spreads like clockwork, including a stellar 4-1 ATS record in Saturday matchups.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, are in an uncharacteristic slump against the spread (ATS), going just 1-7 in their last eight and 1-6 as favorites.
But don’t count out Mahomes, who always brings the magic, especially with a fired-up Arrowhead crowd behind him.
The Texans are leaning on their own offensive firepower, and with Mixon expected to play, their ground game could make a real impact.
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Texans to cover as road favorites in this week 16 matchup between the Chiefs and Texans. The point spread lines have the Texans at -2, and we have them winning by a score of 26-21.
The Texans are the more desperate team here this week. I’m backing them.
As for the over/under, with the line sitting at just 40 points, we are leaning towards the over with a projected combined score of 47 points.
With the Texans favored slightly and the total set at 40, this game offers intriguing angles for bettors. Can Kansas City shake off their ATS woes, or will Houston continue their December dominance?
Buckle up—it’s going to be a wild ride!
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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
We’ve had some fun ones with the Texans ⏪ pic.twitter.com/9f8pFphasO
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 19, 2024
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