Free NFL Week 1 Pick: Texans vs. Colts Odds
Looking for Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Texans taking on the Colts on Sunday, September 8th at the Lucas Oil Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Houston Indianapolis matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Date: Sunday, September 8th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis IN
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Houston -2.5 | Indianapolis +2.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Houston -140 | Indianapolis +118
NFL Betting Total: O/U 49
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Texans vs. Colts Gameday
Get ready for Week 1 NFL action, folks! It’s time to dive into the Texans vs. Colts matchup—a game that’s going to have bettors and fans on the edge of their seats. On Sunday, September 8th, at Lucas Oil Stadium, we’re looking at a prime opportunity to cash in early this season.
Each team picked up a win on the road in the two-game series between the Texans and Colts last year. The Colts won the first game 31-20, while the Texans took the second game 23-19. The Texans were slight favorites in both matchups. The over/under line for the first game was 39.5 points, with the teams combining for 51 points. In the second game, the line was 47.5 points, and the combined score was 42 points.
Houston Texans
The Texans’ season ended with a 34-10 loss to the Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round, but they made the playoffs with a 10-7 record. Houston was tough at home, going 7-3, but just below .500 on the road at 4-5. They were the top team in the AFC South, finishing with a 4-2 division record.
Against the spread, the Texans were 10-9, with a 7-4 mark as the underdog and 3-5 as the favorite. Houston’s over/under record was 7-11-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points. Their playoff run was impressive, considering they were the 4th seed in the AFC.
Houston Texans Stats
On the road, the Texans averaged 18.4 points per game, ranking 21st, while at home, they were 8th, scoring 26.6 points per game. Overall, Houston averaged 22.7 points per game, placing them 13th in the league. They were 13th in offensive power rankings. The Texans’ passing game was a strength last season, ranking 8th in the league with 243.6 passing yards per game. However, they struggled to run the ball, ranking 28th in rushing yards and 29th in rushing yards per attempt.
Per game, the Texans averaged 336.3 yards, placing them 15th in the league. They also ranked 12th in passing attempts per game, with 34.1, and 25th in rushing attempts. Despite their struggles on the ground, Houston had the 2nd highest percentage of first downs coming from passing plays, at 1254.1%.
Heading into his 4th season, Nico Collins is a key part of the Texans’ receiving group, coming off a season in which he had 1,297 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Houston also added Stefon Diggs, who had 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns last year with Buffalo. Tank Dell, entering his 2nd season, played in 11 games and had 709 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last year.
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The Texans’ defense was 11th in points allowed last season, giving up 21.1 points per game. They were 19th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed, giving up an average of 331.5 yards per game. Houston’s defense was tough against the run, with the 2nd best rushing yards per attempt figure in the league.
One of the reasons for their success against the run was their ability to generate tackles for loss, ranking 2nd in the league. In the passing game, the Texans allowed the most passing touchdowns, and opposing quarterbacks completed 67.6% of their passes against them.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were 5-1 against below .500 teams last season but struggled against tougher opponents, going 4-7 vs. above .500 teams. They finished the 2023 season with a 9-8 record, placing them 3rd in the AFC South. Indianapolis was 7-5 in the AFC, but their 3-3 division record left them behind both the Jaguars and Titans in the division.
Indianapolis had a perfect 6-0 record when favored but went just 3-8 as the underdog. Their over/under record was 11-6, with their games averaging a combined 47.7 points per game. The Colts went 9-8 against the spread, posting a 5-3 ATS record on the road and a 4-5 ATS record at home.
Indianapolis Colts Stats
On the road, the Colts went 5-3, while at home, they were 4-5. Indianapolis finished the 2023 season with a 9-8 record, placing them 3rd in the AFC South. Within their division, they went 3-3, and they ended the season 7-5 in the AFC, which was 10th in the conference. When favored, the Colts went 6-0, but as underdogs, they went 3-8.
Against the spread, the Colts were 9-8, with a 5-1 record as favorites and a 4-7 record as underdogs. Their over/under record was 11-6, with their games averaging a combined 47.7 points per game.
Michael Pittman Jr., who had 1,152 receiving yards and four touchdowns last season, leads the Colts’ receiving group heading into the season. Josh Downs, who is heading into his 2nd season, played in 17 games last year and finished with 771 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Colts are also adding rookie Adonai Mitchell to the mix.
Indianapolis’ defense was one of the better units at creating pressure last season, finishing 5th in sacks and 9th in quarterback hits. Despite this, they were just 24th in yards allowed, giving up 349.8 yards per game, and struggled to stop the pass, allowing 24th in points allowed at 24.4 per game.
Against the run, the Colts were tough to score on, giving up the 5th fewest rushing touchdowns. They also forced 24 takeaways and had the 5th best turnover differential in the league. Additionally, they excelled in some key areas, such as allowing the 5th fewest passing touchdowns and the 10th best third down conversion percentage.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Texans are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Texans are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Colts have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Texans’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-2-1.
- The Colts’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Texans vs. Colts Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | -122 | -140 | -1.5 | -2.5 |
| Colts | +100 | +118 | +1.5 | +2.5 |
4* Free Week 1 NFL Betting Prediction: Indianapolis +2.5
Houston’s opening as a slight -2.5 favorite on the road, but don’t sleep on Indianapolis here. The Colts, +2.5 underdogs at home, offer incredible value. The betting lines are begging you to take a second look, and I’m telling you, Colts fans, this is your game.
We’re all in on Indy to cover the spread and pull off a home win. Look for the Colts to grind out a 26-21 victory, surpassing expectations and leaving Houston scrambling to keep up. Keep an eye on that +118 moneyline for even more value.
This game is the perfect example of a Week 1 underdog with the chops to get it done. Mark it down—it’s going to be a fun ride!
As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 49 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 47 points.
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Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Still just getting started. pic.twitter.com/nrf34GAyLm
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 5, 2024
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