Free NFL Week 5 Pick: Texans vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons free NFL Week 5 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Texans taking on the Falcons on Sunday, October 8th at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Houston Atlanta matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(2-2) Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Date: Sunday, October 8th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
NFL Week 5 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Houston +1 | Atlanta -1
Week 5 NFL Moneyline Odds: Houston -106 | Atlanta -115
NFL Betting Total: O/U 41.5
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Get ready for an exciting clash on Sunday, October 8th, as the (2-2) Texans take on the (2-2) Falcons at the iconic Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The betting lines are as tight as ever, with Houston getting a slim +1 point advantage, while Atlanta sits at -1. The Moneyline odds stand at Houston -106 and Atlanta -115, while the Over/Under is set at 41.5 points.
The Texans, currently boasting a 2-2 ATS record, are riding high after rookie sensation C.J. Stroud’s impressive performance, throwing for the second-most yards in NFL history by a rookie in his first four games. His 306 yards and 2 TDs led the Texans to a dominant 30-6 victory over the Steelers.
On the flip side, the Falcons are struggling, with a 1-3 ATS record after a 23-7 defeat by the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium.
This game marks the first of back-to-back home games for Atlanta. The Texans and Falcons have met five times before, with Houston winning three games and Atlanta taking two.
The Texans and Falcons did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Texans have a record of 2-1. The Texans also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 60 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
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Houston Texans
Through four games, the Texans have a record of 2-2. This mark has them 2nd in the AFC-South and 7th in the AFC. When it comes to the spread, the Texans come in at 2-2. Going into week 5, their scoring margin per game is +4.2.
The Texans’ 24-point win over the Steelers was one of their largest margins of victory in recent history.
Offensively, the Texans averaged 6 yards per play for a total of 451 yards. On the other end, the Steelers went 6/14 on 3rd down and finished with 225 yards. Houston went into the game as the underdog (+3), giving them a straight-up and ATS win.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud had a big game, throwing for 306 yards on a passer rating of 111. Stroud completed 53% of 30 attempts in the game.
Houston Texans Stats
Versus the Steelers, the Texans turned to the run 38 times, and it was Dameon Pierce who led the way with 81 yards. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud finished with 30 pass attempts, resulting in 306 yards and a passer rating of 111.
Offensively, the Texans have an average of 24 points per game, which is 14th in the NFL.
The Texans’ defense has, on average, allowed 311.8 yards and 19.8 points per contest (9th). Leading up to this game, they’ve permitted a 71.2% completion rate and yielded two passing touchdowns.
In terms of run defense, they rank 18th in the NFL.
Atlanta Falcons
This week will be the Falcons’ 3rd home game of the season. So far, they have put together a record of 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. Their overall mark of 2-2 has them sitting 2nd in the NFC-South.
Against the spread, the Falcons have a record of 1-3. Their average scoring margin for the season is currently -3.8.
In their defeat against the Jaguars, Atlanta had a slow start and failed to score in the first quarter. The Falcons concluded the game with 287 yards on offense, while allowing 300 on defense.
Atlanta’s 16 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 3.5 point underdogs. Desmond Ridder threw for 191 yards while completing 61% of his passes and throwing for 191. Ridder threw for one touchdown.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Against the Jaguars, the Falcons ran the ball 22 times, with Bijan Robinson as the top rusher, gaining 105 yards. Desmond Ridder attempted 31 passes, amassing 191 yards and a passer rating of 62.
Offensively, the Falcons have an average of 15.5 points per game, which is 24th in the NFL.
The Falcons defense comes into the game with rankings of 14th in tackles for loss and 11th in sacks. Their opponents have been scoring 19.2 points per game and gaining 290.8 yards (per game).
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Texans are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Texans are 5-4-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Texans’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
Texans vs. Falcons Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Texans | +172 | -106 | +4.5 | +1 |
Falcons | -205 | -115 | -4.5 | -1 |
4* Free Week 5 NFL Betting Prediction: Atlanta -1
In this matchup, I like see the Falcons’ defense doing a good job slowing down the Texans’ offense. They’re 5-1 in the L6 at home, and in their most recent game, they gave up just 300 and should build on that performance.
We all know Atlanta can’t throw the ball, but they can run it. Bijan Robinson is going to be a star (if he isn’t one already) and he’s going to be a huge source of production for the Falcons this week.
Houston are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games, plus they’re 0-10 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the NFC.
The public is looking like they’re betting heavy on the Texans, so look for a nice line if you’re a Falcons bettor. Ridder vs. Stroud looks good on paper, and I think we’ll see a good game here.
I suggest locking in the Falcons at -1.
The analysis we’ve been running for this game has Houston and Atlanta finishing with a combined 37 points. With the over/under line sitting at 41.5, I’m getting a bet down on the under.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 10 games.
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Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
In this together pic.twitter.com/H9iIY81u4V
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 3, 2023
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