Super Bowl Props That Matter!
Trying to figure out what Super Bowl 52 Props to avoid? We’ve got your back! The big game is now just a week away. By now we are all a little sick and tired of the over-analysis and are just ready for the game to begin, right? If you are reading this article you are definitely going to make some form of a bet on the game, whether it be following some pros or going with your own insight.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots
Date: Sunday February 4
Time: 6:30 PM
Venue: US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Super Bowl 52 ATS Betting Lines: New England Patriots -4.5
Super Bowl 52 Moneyline Odds: Patriots -175, Eagles +155
Super Bowl 52 Betting Over / Under (Total): 48.5
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Since you are going to get down I am going to try and help by identifying some props you should definitely avoid.
Obviously all bets are about value so in looking at props it is not always about probability but whether you are getting your fair shake at making some money off the deal.
2018 Super Bowl 52 Props to avoid #1: Who will have the most receiving yards in the game?
You get a few different options here starting with Gronk at +300 up to +700 on a bunch of receivers from both sides. Now while a nice +300 or better payoff is nice both of these teams are sporadic in terms of who they feature in the passing game.
Case in point last year’s Super Bowl. There is not a single running back listed for this prop (I am assuming by design) and it is nearly impossible to predict game to game who the Pats are going to feature.
Yes the payoffs are good but you are going to be crossing your fingers for a blown coverage rather than feeling good about a handicap here.
2018 Super Bowl 52 Props to avoid #2: Nick Foles for MVP +320
Obviously being the quarterback puts you in a good position to win the award but I think you should get more value here. First off it would be an upset and even those pundits who like the Eagles a lot don’t pin that on an MVP performance by Foles.
Most just have him not screwing it up. If you do like Philly to win you could get Jay Ajayi at +1800.
Maybe he rips off one of his 200 + yard games against the Pats. Stranger things have happened.
2018 Super Bowl 52 Props to avoid #3: Who will have more passing yards Nick Foles +25.5 (+120)
This is another case where I feel there should be more of a premium in taking the dog. We know that even if the Patriots are leading they do not stop throwing the ball because they trust Brady that much.
Foles can win this one while the Eagles still lose but I don’t see it. Maybe he comes out guns blazing and it works but I think you should get more of a rewards. If he throws for 275, which would be good, Tommy Boy only has to barely break 300.
2018 Super Bowl 52 Props to avoid #4: Total rushing yards Nick Foles Under 1.5 (-105)
Win or lose Nick Foles will make a play or two with his feet. I know he is not Michael Vick back there but my handicap of the game has him picking up a couple first downs with his legs.
When the Pats load up against the run and try and force Foles to beat them it will open up a couple of runs. I see him netting about 15 yards on the ground so going under looks terrible to me.
2018 Super Bowl 52 Props to avoid #5: Total rushing yards Dion Lewis 55.5
For such a successful team the Patriots are still relatively unpredictable. I bring this one up because who knows how much they are going to run the ball and with who.
Maybe Lewis get a lot of carries but it also wouldn’t surprise me is Brandin Cooks take a jet sweep for 60 yards and leads off of that one carry.
When it comes to New England you are best to stick with the spread or the totals. How they get there is always an interesting process.
Props are fun but my general advice is not to go crazy on them, especially for those ones that are essentially off the field action. If you are heading to a party though then definitely participate in the “squares” sheet. Just in case the game fails to live up to expectations.
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