Free NFL Week 11 Pick: Packers vs. Bears Odds
Looking for Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Packers taking on the Bears on Sunday, November 17th at the Soldier Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Green Bay Chicago matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(6-3) Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (4-5)
Date: Sunday, November 17th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago IL
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Green Bay -6.5 | Chicago +6.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Green Bay -269 | Chicago +219
NFL Betting Total: O/U 41.5
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The first matchup was in 1921 and 20-0 win for the Bears. Since then this matchup has a 107-95-6 record favoring the Packers.
But over the last three times playing each other, the Packers have a record of 3-0.
The Packers also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 43 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
Green Bay Packers
Heading into week 11, the Packers have a 77.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. Despite being 3rd in our power rankings, Green Bay is 5th in our power rankings. They are 6-3 overall, including a 3-1 record on the road, and they will look to bounce back from a week 9 loss to the Lions when they face the Bears in Chicago this week.
Against the spread, the Packers are 4-5 this season. They have failed to cover in three straight games, including their week 9 loss to the Lions. In week 8, they beat the Jaguars 30-27 but couldn’t cover the 3.5-point spread. Their O/U record is 4-4-1, with their games averaging 47.1 points this season.
Green Bay Packers Stats
Heading into week 11, the Packers rank 12th in our offensive power rankings. They are 7th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 25.6, and they rank 3rd in the league with 390 passing yards per game. Green Bay is 7th in passing yards, with 235.2 per game, despite ranking 17th in passing attempts. They are 5th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards, averaging 154.8 per game.
In week 9, Jordan Love threw for 273 yards on 23/39 passing but did not have a touchdown and had one interception. Josh Jacobs had 95 rushing yards on 13 carries, and Jayden Reed led the team with 5 catches for 113 yards. The Packers struggled on 3rd down, converting only 3 of 12 attempts, and scored on just 1 of 4 red zone trips.
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Despite their 24-14 loss to the Lions, the Packers’ defense allowed just 137 passing yards in their most recent game. The Lions found success on the ground, rushing for 124 yards on 32 attempts. Green Bay’s defense limited Detroit to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down and allowed just one touchdown through the air.
The Packers’ defense also forced the Lions to complete 18 passes at an 81.8% completion rate. They recorded one sack and had a positive differential in quarterback hits and tackles for loss compared to the Lions.
Chicago Bears
After three straight losses, the Bears are now 4-5 on the season, including a 19-3 home loss to the Patriots in week 10. Chicago was a 6-point favorite in that game but couldn’t get the win, dropping their home record to 4-1. They are 0-4 on the road this season, with their last win coming in week 6 against the Jaguars. The Bears are 4th in the NFC North and 9th in the conference standings.
Our projections give Chicago a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.1% chance of winning the division. They rank 23rd in our NFL power rankings heading into week 11. The Bears have a +0.9 scoring margin and are 5-4 against the spread, but they’ve failed to cover in three straight games. Their O/U record is 3-6, with the under hitting in their last three games.
Chicago Bears Stats
Heading into week 11, the Bears rank 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 21st in the NFL in points per game, averaging 19.4, and 30th in passing yards per game, with 169.6, despite ranking 13th in passing attempts. On the ground, they are 24th in rushing yards per game, averaging 108.1. Chicago has struggled on 3rd down, converting just 28.7% of their attempts, which ranks 29th in the league, but they are 3rd in red zone conversion percentage.
Caleb Williams has been sacked 9 times in each of his last two games, including in week 10, when he threw for 120 yards on 16/30 passing. The Bears have failed to score in the 1st quarter in each of their last three games, and in week 10, they managed just 3 points in a loss to the Patriots. D’Andre Swift had 59 rushing yards on 16 carries in week 10, and Keenan Allen led the team with 44 receiving yards on 5 catches.
In their 19-3 loss to the Patriots, the Bears’ defense allowed just 184 passing yards but struggled against the run, giving up 144 yards on 35 attempts (4.1 yards per attempt). Chicago’s run defense was a key weakness, and the unit managed only one sack while the Patriots had 13 tackles for loss compared to the Bears.
Despite holding the Patriots to a 35.7% conversion rate on third down, the Bears’ offense managed just three points. Chicago’s defense forced one interception and allowed one passing touchdown. The Patriots finished with 328 total yards against the Bears.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Packers are 2-3 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Bears are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Packers are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bears have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Packers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bears’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
Packers vs. Bears Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -112 | -272 | +1 | -6.5 |
| Bears | -108 | +218 | -1 | +6.5 |
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: Chicago +6.5
Our projected score for this week 11 matchup between the Bears and Packers is 26-20 in favor of the Bears. With the Bears currently sitting as 6.5-point favorites, we are looking to take them to cover the spread as our best bet for this game.
For this one, we also like the over as a good bet to make. The current O/U line is 41.5 points, and our projections have these teams finishing with 47 combined points, making the over a strong play.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
OC Thomas Brown is ready to go 😤
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 14, 2024
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