Free NFL Week 10 Pick: Lions vs. Chargers Odds
Looking for Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers free NFL Week 10 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Lions taking on the Chargers on Sunday, November 12th at the SoFi Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Detroit Los Angeles matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
(6-2) Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-4)
Date: Sunday, November 12th
Time: 4:05 ET
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood CA
NFL Week 10 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Detroit -1.5 | Los Angeles +1.5
Week 10 NFL Moneyline Odds: Detroit -124 | Los Angeles +103
NFL Betting Total: O/U 48.5
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Fast fact, the Lions have averaged 17.3PPG since Week 5, ranking 10th lowest in the NFL. Meanwhile, LAC have given up just 17.5PPG since Week 5, making them the ninth-best defense in the league.
This has me thinking the Lions overachieved their way thru the first part of their schedule, and the Chargers (if they want to make the playoffs) will have to continue to rely on their defense.
On Monday night, Coach Staley’s Chargers’ defense shined in a 27-6 win against the Jets, showcasing their best performance since he took over in 2021. The Jets struggled, managing only field goals.
The Chargers also caused three turnovers, sacked Zach Wilson eight times, and limited New York to just three successful third-down conversions out of 17 tries.
Mack and Bosa were nearly unblockable, if that continues Detroit better have a good game plan for Sunday.
The Lions and Chargers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Lions have a record of 2-1. The Lions also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 43 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
These two have met 12 times thru the years, the Lions winning 5, and Chargers 7.
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Detroit Lions
This season, the Lions are 1st in the NFC-North on an overall record of 6-2. In non-conference games, their record is 2-1 while going 4-1 in NFC action. This season, the Lions boast an above .500 record versus the spread, currently standing at 6-2.
Their average scoring margin for this season is +4.4.
In the Lions’ win over the Raiders, the Lions’ offense finished with 486 yards of offense compared to the Raiders’ 157. The Lions went 6/14 on 3rd down, while the Raiders converted on 42.9% of their 3rd down attempts.
Going into the game, Detroit was favored by 7 and went on to cover the spread. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs had a big game for the Lions, running for one touchdown and 152 yards.
Jared Goff completed 70% of his passes for 272 yards.
Detroit Lions Stats
The Lions’ offense produced a total of 486 yards against the Raiders. On third downs, the Lions achieved a conversion rate of 42.9%. Notably, Gibbs led the rushing attack with 152 yards, while Goff passed for 272 yards.
On offense, the Lions have been one of the better teams in the league in the first quarter, ranking 4th in the NFL.
Overall, they are averaging 25 points per game (9th).
The Lions currently rank 15th in tackles for loss and 10th in sacks on the defensive side.
Their opponents are averaging 20.6 points per game and 296.9 yards per contest against them.
Los Angeles Chargers
Leading up to their matchup with the Lions, the Chargers are 4-4. They currently sit 2nd in the AFC-West and are in 10th place in the AFC. The Chargers hold a 4-4 record against the spread.
As we approach week 10, their scoring margin stands at +3.4 per game.
On the offensive side, the Chargers had a strong start by putting up 14 points in the first quarter. Overall, they recorded 191 yards of total offense, compared to 270 yards for the Jets.
Going into the game, Los Angeles was favored by 3.5 and went on to cover the spread.
Justin Herbert did not throw or run for a touchdown, while completing 16 of 30 passes for 136 yards. Herbert ended the game with a passer rating of 65.
Los Angeles Chargers Stats
Los Angeles’ offense finished with 191 yards of total offense vs. the Jets. On third down, the Chargers converted at a rate of 43.8%. Austin Ekeler was the Chargers’ top rusher with 47 yards while Herbert threw for 136 yards.
Los Angeles’ offense comes in with an average of 25.1 points per game, which is currently 8th in the league.
The Chargers are 30th in the league in terms of yards allowed, giving up 375.8 yards per contest.
Los Angeles’ defense comes in with an average of 21.8 points per game allowed, which is 19th in the NFL.
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Lions are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Chargers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chargers have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Lions’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Chargers’ have an over/under record of 0-2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Lions vs. Chargers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | +100 | -135 | +1.5 | -1.5 |
| Chargers | -118 | +113 | -1.5 | +1.5 |
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: Los Angeles +1.5
Defensively, Los Angeles looked good in their most recent game vs. New York. For this week’s best bet, I like Los Angeles to cover with the line currently sitting at +1.5.
The wrong team is favored in this one. I don’t trust the Lions just yet to be able to win a game of this magnitude.
The Lions haven’t had much luck vs. the Chargers thru the years when you break down their NFL betting trends.
Detroit are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against LAC, are 2-7 SU in their last 9 against LAC, and finally, they’re 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LAC.
After crunching the numbers, our model is pointing to this game finishing with a combined 45 points. This projection has me feeling good about taking the over at 48.5.
Small lean to the UNDER here. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Chargers’ last 6, and 4 of their last 6 vs. the Lions.
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Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
What A Catch!
10k slay pic.twitter.com/yAJikbvPlc
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 8, 2023
That has to be in the catch of the year running #MNF
— "Razor" Ray Monohan (@Cappers_Picks) November 7, 2023
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