Free NFL Week 16 Pick: Broncos vs. Chargers Odds
Looking for Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Broncos taking on the Chargers on Thursday, December 19th at the SoFi Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Denver Los Angeles Thursday Night Football matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
Thursday Night Football on Amazon Prime
(9-5) Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
Date: Thursday, December 19th
Time: 8:15 ET
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood CA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Denver +3 | Los Angeles -3
NFL Moneyline Odds: Denver +135 | Los Angeles -161
NFL Betting Total: O/U 42.5
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Get ready for an electric Week 16 Thursday Night Football clash as the Broncos and Chargers renew their storied rivalry under the bright lights of SoFi Stadium!
These AFC West foes have squared off 130 times, with Denver owning the upper hand at 73-56-1.
Their last meeting in October saw the Chargers take a gritty 23-16 win in Denver, but the Broncos have been red-hot, covering the spread in five straight games and winning four of their last five outright.
Over the last three times playing each other, the Broncos have a record of 2-1. The Broncos also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 31 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
In my opinion this matchup has all the makings of a defensive slugfest, with Denver’s revitalized unit and a Chargers team that’s struggled to find consistency in high-stakes games.
Denver Broncos
After a week 10 loss to the Chiefs, the Broncos have bounced back with four straight wins, including a 31-13 victory over the Colts in week 15. This streak has improved their record to 9-5, putting them 2nd in the AFC West and 6th in the conference.
Our projections give Denver a 93.1% chance of making the playoffs, but they have no shot at winning the division.
Heading into week 16, the Broncos rank 21st in our power rankings and have an average scoring margin of +6.4 points per game. They are 11-3 against the spread this season, covering in five straight games. Their O/U record is 9-5, with the over hitting in three consecutive games.
Denver Broncos Stats
Heading into week 16, the Broncos sit 24th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 9th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24, but are 21st in yards per game with 311.1. Denver is 23rd in passing yards per game (202.7) on 33.6 attempts per game, and they rank 19th in rushing yards per game (108.4) on 26.4 attempts per game.
The Broncos are 16th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 37.7%, and they rank 19th in red zone conversion percentage at 19.6%.
Bo Nix threw for 130 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 15, but he also had 3 interceptions. Denver’s offense struggled early, scoring just 10 points in the first 3 quarters before putting up 21 in the 4th.
Courtland Sutton led the team with 32 receiving yards on 3 catches, while Nix also led the team in rushing with 23 yards on 8 carries.
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Denver’s defense played a big role in their 31-13 win over the Colts, holding Indianapolis to just 26.7% on third down and coming up with two interceptions. The Broncos’ run defense gave up 149 yards on 32 attempts, but they limited the Colts to 4.7 yards per attempt.
In the passing game, the Broncos allowed just 161 yards through the air and kept the Colts out of the end zone.
They also pressured the quarterback effectively, with two sacks and leading in both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. The Broncos’ defense held the Colts to a 44.7% completion percentage.
Los Angeles Chargers
Heading into week 16, the Chargers are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 40-17 loss to the Buccaneers in week 15. This dropped their record to 8-6, putting them 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the conference.
Despite their recent struggles, they still have an 87.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections.
Los Angeles currently ranks 16th in our NFL power rankings and has an average scoring margin of +3.4 points per game. Against the spread, they are 9-4-1, including an 8-2 record as favorites.
Their O/U record stands at 5-9, with their games averaging 38.6 points compared to an average line of 42.6.
Los Angeles Chargers Stats
Heading into week 16, the Chargers rank 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 17th in the NFL in points per game (21) and 25th in passing yards per game (196.4), despite being 27th in passing attempts.
On the ground, they rank 20th in rushing attempts and 21st in rushing yards per game (105.8). Los Angeles is 20th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage but ranks 6th in red zone conversion percentage.
Justin Herbert threw for 195 yards (21/33) with 2 touchdowns and an interception in week 15.
The Chargers struggled in the 2nd half, failing to score after putting up 17 points in the first half. Gus Edwards led the team with 23 rushing yards, while Ladd McConkey had 5 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown.
In their 40-17 loss to the Buccaneers, the Chargers’ defense struggled to stop the big plays, as Tampa Bay averaged 10.5 yards per pass attempt. The Chargers allowed 283 yards through the air, with four passing touchdowns.
Their run defense was also gashed for 223 yards on 39 attempts, giving up 506 total yards in the game. The Chargers’ defense only managed one sack and allowed the Buccaneers to convert on 60% of their third downs.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Broncos are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chargers have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Broncos’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Chargers’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
Broncos vs. Chargers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | +150 | +135 | +3.5 | +3 |
| Chargers | -180 | -161 | -3.5 | -3 |
4* Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: Denver +3
Recent trends favor the Broncos, who’ve been road warriors, covering six of their last seven away games. The Chargers, on the other hand, are just 2-7 against AFC West opponents in their last nine matchups and a woeful 1-6 in December games.
For this week 16 matchup between the Broncos and Chargers, we have the Broncos coming out on top by a score of 24-17. With the Broncos being 3-point road underdogs, our pick vs. the spread is to take them to cover and win this game.
As for the over/under line, we have a pick to take the under, with a projected combined score of 41 points, just below the O/U line of 42.5.
With live betting odds showing the Chargers as slight three-point favorites and the total set at a modest 42.5, this game screams under.
Expect a hard-fought battle between division rivals as both teams jockey for playoff positioning.
Buckle up—this one’s going to be a grind-it-out, old-school AFC West showdown!
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Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
tnf fit pic.twitter.com/EGr373oZix
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 18, 2024
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