Free NFL Week 10 Pick: Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Broncos taking on the Chiefs on Sunday, November 10th at the Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Denver Kansas City matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
(5-4) Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
Date: Sunday, November 10th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Denver +8 | Kansas City -8
NFL Moneyline Odds: Denver +316 | Kansas City -418
NFL Betting Total: O/U 41.5
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Get ready for a classic AFC West showdown in Week 10 as the Denver Broncos take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead! With these two teams facing off for the 129th time, you know there’s no shortage of history or intensity.
The Chiefs lead this storied rivalry with 72 wins to Denver’s 56, and they’re currently 4-1 in their last five clashes.
But with the Broncos catching eight points and an impressive 6-4 record against the spread in their last ten road games, there’s a lot for underdog enthusiasts to like about Denver’s chances here.
Last season, the Broncos and Chiefs did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Chiefs have the leg up at 2-1.
However, against the spread the Broncos went 2-1.
The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 36 points per game.
Denver Broncos
After three straight wins, the Broncos couldn’t keep their streak alive in week 9, falling to the Ravens 41-10. The loss dropped Denver to 5-4 on the season, leaving them 3rd in the AFC West. They currently have a +2.4 scoring margin and are 6-3 against the spread. They are 3-0 ATS as favorites and 3-3 as underdogs.
Our projections give the Broncos a 35.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.7% chance of winning the division. Heading into week 10, they rank 27th in our NFL power rankings. Denver’s O/U record is 6-3, with the over hitting in five straight games.
Denver Broncos Stats
Heading into week 10, Denver ranks 29th in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game (20.3) and 24th in yards per game (308.6). Despite being 12th in passing attempts, they are 27th in passing yards per game, averaging 187.1. On the ground, they are 15th in both rushing attempts and yards per game, with 121.4. Denver ranks 24th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 33.6% success rate, and they are 17th in red zone conversion percentage.
In week 9, the Broncos struggled offensively, scoring just 10 points in a loss to the Ravens. After scoring 21 points in the 2nd quarter of week 8, they were shut out in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters against Baltimore. Bo Nix threw for 223 yards, going 19/33 with one interception. Javonte Williams had 42 rushing yards on 12 carries, and Courtland Sutton led the team with 7 catches for 122 yards.
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In their 41-10 loss to the Ravens, the Broncos’ defense gave up 269 yards through the air on just 16 completions. The Ravens were efficient, completing 84.2% of their passes, with three of them going for touchdowns. Denver struggled to pressure the quarterback, managing only one sack and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.
On the ground, the Broncos allowed 127 rushing yards on 34 attempts. Opposing offenses have been able to move the ball effectively against Denver, as they gave up 396 total yards in the most recent game. The Broncos’ defense also allowed the Ravens to convert on 37.5% of their third down attempts.
Kansas City Chiefs
With an 8-0 record, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC and have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. They are also 95.6% likely to win the AFC West. Kansas City ranks 3rd in our NFL power rankings heading into week 10, when they will host the Broncos.
Against the spread, the Chiefs are 4-3-1, including a 2-game ATS losing streak. In week 9, they beat the Buccaneers 30-24 but didn’t cover the 8.5-point spread. The over hit in that game, as the teams combined for 54 points. Kansas City’s O/U record is 4-4 this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Patrick Mahomes heads into week 10 after throwing for 291 yards (34/44) and 3 touchdowns in week 9 against the Buccaneers, posting a passer rating of 116. Kareem Hunt rushed for 106 yards on 27 carries, while Travis Kelce led the receiving corps with 14 catches for 100 yards. Kansas City’s offense scored 14 points in the 4th quarter and added 6 more in overtime.
The Chiefs have been strong on 3rd down, leading the NFL with a 53.2% conversion rate. They are 10th in passing yards per game (230.1) and 14th in rushing, averaging 122.4 yards per game. Kansas City ranks 9th in our offensive power rankings.
In their 30-24 overtime win over the Buccaneers, the Chiefs’ defense gave up 189 passing yards on 23 completions. They allowed two passing touchdowns and 284 total yards. The Chiefs’ run defense was solid, allowing just 95 yards on 19 attempts, but they gave up 5.0 yards per attempt on the ground.
Despite giving up 74.2% completions to the Buccaneers, the Chiefs allowed just 24 points and forced Tampa Bay to convert on only 45.5% of their third down attempts. They also recorded two sacks, although they lost the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials in the game.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Broncos are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Chiefs are 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Broncos are 6-4 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chiefs have gone 6-2-2 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Broncos’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Chiefs’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | +320 | +316 | +9 | +8 |
| Chiefs | -410 | -418 | -9 | -8 |
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: Denver +8
Kansas City comes into this game undefeated, but they’re also coming off a short week following a close Monday night battle.
The Broncos’ defense, which has been solid, will be looking to keep this high-powered Chiefs offense in check and bring the heat to keep it tight.
And let’s not forget Denver’s success against the spread (ATS) recently – they’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 4-1 ATS in their last five against Kansas City.
Our pick against the spread is to take the Broncos to cover as road underdogs in this week 10 matchup. The point spread line is currently at Broncos+8, and we have them keeping this one close but going down 31-27.
With Denver’s recent trend of keeping games close and Kansas City’s minor wear from the short week, this game has all the makings of a thrilling ATS opportunity.
For this week’s over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 58 points and the O/U line sitting at 41.5 points.
Grab your seat and your ticket – this Week 10 battle is sure to keep bettors on their toes!
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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Our first AFC West home game of the szn! pic.twitter.com/NRBZbu9nD1
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 7, 2024
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