Free NFL Week 5 Pick: Cowboys vs. Steelers Odds
Looking for Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Cowboys taking on the Steelers on Sunday, October 6th at the Acrisure Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Dallas Pittsburgh Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(SNF) Sunday Night Football on NBC
(2-2) Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Date: Sunday, October 6th
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh PA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Dallas +2.5 | Pittsburgh -2.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Dallas +116 | Pittsburgh -139
NFL Betting Total: O/U 43
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Get ready for a thrilling Sunday Night Football showdown in Week 5 as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Pittsburgh Steelers! I’m pumped about this matchup, and if you’re looking for sharp NFL betting insight, you’ve come to the right place.
The Cowboys might lead the all-time series 17-16, but don’t let that fool you—these teams haven’t met since 2020, when the Steelers took care of business in Dallas.
Going back to 1985, Pittsburgh holds a solid 7-4 edge over the Cowboys, and this Sunday night, I’m expecting them to extend that dominance.
The Cowboys and Steelers did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Cowboys have a record of 2-1.
The Cowboys also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 53 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys picked up a 20-15 win over the Giants in their most recent game, bringing their record to 2-2 for the season. Dallas didn’t cover the spread in their 5-point win, as they were favored by -5.5 on the road. The combined 35 points was under the over/under line of 45 points. Dallas led 14-9 at halftime and added a field goal in the 3rd quarter to take a 17-12 lead heading into the 4th quarter.
The Giants added a field goal in the 4th quarter to pull within two, but the Cowboys responded with another field goal of their own to make it 20-15 in their favor. Dallas started the game with a 7-3 lead after Dak Prescott’s touchdown pass to Rico Dowdle in the 1st quarter. The Giants added a field goal, and Dallas responded with another touchdown in the 2nd quarter, this time a pass from Prescott to CeeDee Lamb.
Dallas Cowboys Stats
The Cowboys’ offense had 14 first downs and 213 yards passing in their 20-15 win over the Giants. Dallas struggled on third down, converting only 30% of their chances. They ran for just 80 yards on 23 attempts. Dak Prescott completed 22 of 27 passes (81.5%) for 221 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 125 and being sacked once.
CeeDee Lamb was a key target for Dallas, leading the team with 98 yards receiving and a touchdown. Rico Dowdle led the team in rushing with 46 yards on 11 carries and also had one receiving touchdown.
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In their 20-15 win over the Giants, the Cowboys’ defense was particularly strong against the run, allowing just 26 yards on 24 attempts, which is 1.1 yards per attempt. They also limited the Giants to a 31.2% third-down conversion rate. In the passing game, the Cowboys gave up 277 yards through the air on 29 completions, but they didn’t allow any passing touchdowns. Additionally, they came up with one interception.
Dallas’ defense recorded one sack and won the tackles for loss battle by +1. The Giants finished with 303 total yards, but the Cowboys’ ability to stop the run and prevent touchdowns kept them in control of the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite their 27-24 loss to the Colts, the Steelers are still 3-1 on the season. Pittsburgh fell behind early, trailing 14-0 after the 1st quarter and 17-3 at halftime. The Steelers battled back in the 2nd half, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the Colts’ lead. The over/under line was set at 41, and the teams combined for 51 points.
Heading into the 4th quarter, the Steelers were down 17-10, but they put together a strong 4th quarter, scoring 14 points to take a brief lead before the Colts rallied back. Pittsburgh was favored by -2.5 but lost straight-up and against the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers Stats
In the Steelers’ 27-24 loss to the Colts, Pittsburgh’s offense picked up 23 first downs and 358 total yards. They ran for 122 yards on 30 attempts and threw for 282 yards through the air. Justin Fields, playing at quarterback, led the team with 312 passing yards, completing 22 of 34 passes and finishing with a passer rating of 104. Fields also ran for 55 yards and scored two rushing touchdowns.
Fields was also the Steelers’ leading rusher in the game. George Pickens was the top receiver, with 113 yards on seven catches. Despite their offensive production, the Steelers’ O-line allowed Fields to be sacked four times.
In the Steelers’ 27-24 loss to the Colts, their defense allowed 358 total yards. The Steelers gave up 133 rushing yards on 32 attempts and allowed 225 passing yards on 19 completions. They also allowed two passing touchdowns and permitted the Colts to convert on 53.3% of their third down attempts.
Pittsburgh’s defense managed two sacks in the game but lost the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials by -1 each. The Colts averaged 7.5 yards per passing attempt against the Steelers.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Cowboys are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Steelers are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Cowboys are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Steelers have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Cowboys’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Steelers’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Cowboys vs. Steelers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -125 | +116 | -1.5 | +2.5 |
| Steelers | +105 | -138 | +1.5 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 5 NFL Betting Prediction: Dallas +2.5
Let’s break it down: Dallas comes in at 2-2, and frankly, they’ve been tough to trust. They’ve struggled to find any consistency, especially on offense. That running game? Non-existent. The defense? Parsons is banged up, and it’s showing. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s sitting pretty at 3-1 and 1-0 at home, and they’ve got all the momentum.
Fields is finding his rhythm, and I’m loving what he brings to this Steelers offense. Plus, let’s not forget the Pittsburgh home-field advantage—it’s a game-changer at Acrisure Stadium.
The betting lines are tight—Steelers are favored by just 2.5, but here’s why I’m hammering that Pittsburgh spread: they’re 6-3 against the spread in their last nine games against bottom-tier defenses like Dallas. And the Cowboys? They’ve covered just once in their last five games.
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Steelers to cover at home in this week five matchup. Despite the point spread being -2.5 in favor of the Steel Curtain, we have the Steelers coming out on top by a score of 26-20.
For an over/under pick, we really like taking the over with the line sitting at just 43 points. Our projections have these teams finishing with 46 combined points, making the over a decent value pick right now, if you want to add in a parlay on this matchup.
Expect the Steelers to go 4-1 with a big win here. Cowboys fans, this isn’t your week.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
In Boz we trust 🫡
Chris Boswell has been named AFC Special Teams Player of the Month for September 📝: https://t.co/n9AQy4Q4U3 pic.twitter.com/Ilgfw9dPkl
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 3, 2024
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