Free NFL Week 9 Pick: Cowboys vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Cowboys taking on the Falcons on Sunday, November 3rd at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 9 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Dallas Atlanta matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 9
(3-4) Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
Date: Sunday, November 3rd
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta GA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Dallas +2.5 | Atlanta -2.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Dallas +122 | Atlanta -145
NFL Betting Total: O/U 52
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It’s Week 9, and we’ve got an exciting clash on tap between the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons! Historically, this rivalry leans Dallas, with the Cowboys holding a 19-11 series advantage, and their last meetup saw Dallas dismantle Atlanta 43-3 in 2021.
Both teams have been scrapping this season, with the Falcons at 5-3 and Dallas slightly trailing at 3-4. But there’s more to this matchup than meets the eye.
The Cowboys and Falcons did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Cowboys have a record of 3-0. The Cowboys also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 55 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Dallas Cowboys
With a 3-4 record, the Cowboys rank 23rd in our power rankings, giving them a 12.2% chance of making the playoffs. Dallas has lost two straight, including a 30-24 road loss to the 49ers in week 8. The O/U line for this game was 47.5 points, and the teams combined for 54. The over has hit in two straight Cowboys games.
Dallas is 2-5 against the spread this season, including 0-2 as the favorite and 2-3 as the underdog. They failed to cover the 5.5-point spread against the 49ers, and they were also unable to cover in their 38-point loss to the Lions in week 6.
Dallas Cowboys Stats
Heading into week 9, the Cowboys rank 22nd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 21.4 points per game, which is also 22nd in the NFL. They lead the league in passing attempts per game (39.4) and are 3rd in passing yards per game, with 256. Dak Prescott threw for 243 yards (25/38) and 2 touchdowns in week 8, but also had 2 interceptions. CeeDee Lamb had a big game, catching 13 passes for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns.
On the ground, Dallas ranks last in the NFL, with just 74.1 rushing yards per game. They are 25th in rushing attempts per game. Ezekiel Elliott led the team with 34 rushing yards on 10 carries in week 8. Dallas ranks 10th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 40% success rate, and they are 4th in red zone conversion percentage at 73.7%.
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In their 30-24 loss to the 49ers, the Cowboys’ defense gave up 223 rushing yards on 36 attempts, including a 75-yard touchdown run by Elijah Mitchell. Overall, the Cowboys allowed 469 yards and 9.5 yards per attempt in the passing game. Despite this, they only allowed 18 completions and 246 passing yards.
The Cowboys’ defense struggled to get off the field, as the 49ers converted on 50% of their third down attempts. Dallas managed just two sacks and lost the battle in both QB hits and tackles for loss.
Atlanta Falcons
With a 5-3 record, the Falcons sit atop the NFC South, including a 4-0 mark in division play. They bounced back from a week 7 loss to the Seahawks by beating the Bucs 31-26 in week 8. Atlanta was a 1.5-point favorite in that game and covered the spread, with the teams combining for 57 points to hit the over.
Our projections give the Falcons a 77.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 70.1% chance of winning the division. They rank 15th in our power rankings heading into week 9. Atlanta has an average scoring margin of -0.1 points per game and is 4-4 against the spread this season.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Heading into week 9, the Falcons sit 10th in our offensive power rankings. They are 12th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.2 points per game, and 7th in total yards with 371.6 per game. Atlanta ranks 6th in passing yards (250.9) and 9th in passing attempts. On the ground, they are 15th in rushing yards, with 120.8 per game, on 25.9 attempts per game, which ranks 18th in the league. The Falcons are 12th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 39.6% success rate, and they rank 14th in red zone conversions.
Kirk Cousins is coming off a strong performance in week 8, throwing for 276 yards and 4 touchdowns on 23/29 passing, with a passer rating of 145. Kyle Pitts led the team with 91 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bijan Robinson had 63 rushing yards on 13 carries. The Falcons scored 31 points against the Buccaneers, with 24 of those coming in the first half.
In their 31-26 win over the Buccaneers, the Falcons’ defense gave up 330 passing yards on 37 completions, with Tampa Bay finishing with 432 total yards. Atlanta allowed three passing touchdowns but did come up with two interceptions. The Falcons struggled to generate pressure, as they didn’t record any sacks and had a -4 differential in tackles for loss. Tampa Bay also had success on 64.3% of their third down attempts.
Despite their struggles, the Falcons’ defense did a good job against the run, as the Buccaneers managed just 102 yards on 22 attempts.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Cowboys are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Falcons are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Cowboys are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Falcons have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Cowboys’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Falcons’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Cowboys vs. Falcons Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -115 | +122 | -1 | +2.5 |
| Falcons | -105 | -145 | +1 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 9 NFL Betting Prediction: Dallas +2.5
This game kicks off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the Falcons are modest -2.5 favorites. Betting lines show Atlanta at -145 on the moneyline, with Dallas fetching +122 for the upset. The O/U sits at 52, and the odds reflect what could be a high-octane game packed with offensive fireworks.
Home-field advantage doesn’t offer the Falcons much comfort—Atlanta has gone 5-5 over their last 10 home games, covering only three of their last twelve.
Plus, Cowboys fans travel in droves, meaning a true home advantage might be up for grabs.
And for Dallas, this game holds added weight: after a rocky season start, coach Mike McCarthy is on the hot seat if Dallas can’t pull off a win here and handle Phili next week.
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Cowboys to cover as road underdogs in this week nine matchup between the Cowboys and Falcons. The point spread lines have the Cowboys at +2.5, and we have them winning 33-26, making them a great pick vs. the spread.
As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 52 points, we have these teams combining for 59 points, making the over our top pick for this matchup.
One thing’s certain—this is a can’t-miss matchup with serious stakes for both sides, and it’s poised to deliver all the drama you’d want in a late-season showdown.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
The @NFL leader in passing yards during the month of October 😤 pic.twitter.com/WpLWyf8s3c
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) October 31, 2024
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