Free NFL Week 11 Pick: Browns vs. Saints Odds
Looking for Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Browns taking on the Saints on Sunday, November 17th at the Caesars Superdome. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Cleveland New Orleans matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(2-7) Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints (3-7)
Date: Sunday, November 17th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans LA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Cleveland +1 | New Orleans -1
NFL Moneyline Odds: Cleveland -104 | New Orleans -116
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44
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Last season, the Browns and Saints did not face off head-to-head.
The Browns lead the overall series, 13-6, but the Saints have captured the last 2. The last matchup was on 12/24/22. A 17-10 Saints win.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Saints have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread the Browns went 2-1.
The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 38 points per game.
Cleveland Browns
Heading into week 11, the Browns are 19th in our power rankings and have a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs. They currently sit at 2-7, putting them 4th in the AFC North. Cleveland is 1-4 at home and 1-3 on the road, with their only road win coming against the Jaguars in week 2. They snapped a 5-game losing streak with a win over the Ravens in week 8 but couldn’t carry that momentum into week 9, losing 27-10 to the Chargers.
Against the spread, the Browns are 3-6, with all three of their ATS wins coming as underdogs. They are 0-3 as favorites this season. Their O/U record is also 3-6, with their games averaging 40.1 points compared to an average line of 41.3.
Cleveland Browns Stats
Heading into week 11, the Browns rank 31st in our offensive power rankings, averaging 16.4 points per game, which is 26th in the NFL. They are also 31st in the league in passing yards per game, with 274.4, despite ranking 3rd in pass attempts. Cleveland has struggled on 3rd down, converting just 28.7% of their attempts, which ranks 29th in the NFL. However, they have been excellent in the red zone, leading the league in conversion percentage.
Jameis Winston threw for 235 yards in week 9, with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Cedric Tillman led the team with 6 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown, while Nick Chubb had 39 rushing yards on 15 carries. Cleveland scored just 10 points in the loss, with 7 coming in the 4th quarter.
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The Browns’ defense gave up 246 passing yards on just 18 completions to the Chargers in their most recent game, which included a 72-yard touchdown by Mike Williams. Despite this, Cleveland’s defense actually played well on third downs, allowing the Chargers to convert just 35.7% of their third down attempts. They also managed to sack Justin Herbert six times and had a few more QB hits and tackles for loss than the Chargers.
Overall, the Browns’ defense held the Chargers to 27 points, and they were not helped by their offense, which turned the ball over four times in a 27-10 loss. The Browns’ defense also held the Chargers to 4.2 yards per attempt on the ground.
New Orleans Saints
With a 3-7 record, the Saints have just a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.6% chance of winning the NFC South. They rank 21st in our NFL power rankings. New Orleans is 4-6 against the spread this season, with a scoring margin of -1.9 points per game. Their O/U record is 6-4, with an average of 47.3 points scored in their games compared to a line of 43.4.
After losing five straight games, the Saints got back in the win column with a 20-17 victory over the Falcons in week 10. They were 3.5-point underdogs in that game, but they managed to cover the spread with the win. The combined scoring of 37 points was under the 47-point line.
New Orleans Saints Stats
Heading into week 11, the Saints are 19th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 22.7 points per game, which ranks 13th in the NFL. They are 16th in passing yards per game (212.4) and 15th in passing attempts. On the ground, New Orleans ranks 13th in rushing yards per game (122.4) on 28.4 attempts per contest. They are 16th in the league in 3rd-down conversions and 20th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 9th in red zone attempts.
Derek Carr posted a passer rating of 126 in week 10, throwing for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Falcons. Alvin Kamara rushed for 55 yards on 17 carries, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the team with 3 catches for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Saints scored all 17 of their points in the 2nd quarter.
The Saints’ defense was able to come up with a big interception in their 20-17 win over the Falcons, despite allowing 468 total yards. They struggled against the run, giving up 181 rushing yards on 32 attempts, but did a better job against the pass, allowing 287 yards through the air and holding Atlanta to a 60.5% completion percentage.
New Orleans’ defense recorded three sacks and eight more quarterback hits than the Falcons. They also held Atlanta to a 35.7% conversion rate on third down, helping to mitigate some of the yardage totals they allowed.
Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Browns are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Saints are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Browns are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Saints have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Browns’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Saints’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Browns vs. Saints Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | -130 | -104 | -2 | +1 |
| Saints | +110 | -116 | +2 | -1 |
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: New Orleans -1
For this week 11 matchup between the Browns and Saints, we have the Saints coming out on top by a score of 26-20. Even though the Browns are technically the favorite at +1, we like the Saints to not only win but cover the spread as home favorites.
As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 44 points, we are leaning towards taking the over, with our projections pointing to a combined score of 46 points.
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Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Your Gameday Guide to Sunday in the Dome
🔗: https://t.co/2s1mJhdQ6E#Saints | @onlocationexp pic.twitter.com/8ZR5vuxRWZ
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 14, 2024
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