Free NFL Week 13 Pick: Browns vs. Broncos Odds
Looking for Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Browns taking on the Broncos on Monday, December 2nd at the Empower Field at Mile High. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Cleveland Denver Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
Monday Night Football on ESPN
(3-8) Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (7-5)
Date: Monday, December 2nd
Time: 8:15 ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver CO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Cleveland +5.5 | Denver -5.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Cleveland +207 | Denver -251
NFL Betting Total: O/U 41.5
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Monday night lights will shine bright at Mile High as the Denver Broncos (7-5) host the Cleveland Browns (3-8) in a matchup steeped in history and intrigue. Denver has dominated this all-time series, boasting a commanding 22-7 record against Cleveland, including a lopsided 12-4 mark at home.
The Browns’ last victory against the Broncos came back in 2021, a narrow 17-14 triumph, but the most recent showdown went Denver’s way with a convincing 29-12 win just last season.
Adding to the drama, both teams have checkered Monday Night Football histories, with the Broncos sitting at 33-44-1 and the Browns not far behind at 17-21.
But records only tell part of the story. The Browns, led by the erratic but occasionally brilliant Jameis Winston, are 2-2 in his starts this season and are determined to play spoiler in a season that’s otherwise gone off the rails.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Broncos have the leg up at 2-1. The Broncos also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 38 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
It’s Jerry Jeudy revenge week! LOL
Cleveland Browns
With a 3-8 record, the Browns have just a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. Cleveland currently ranks 21st in our NFL power rankings. They are 4-7 against the spread this season, including a 4-3 mark as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-6, with the over hitting in two straight games.
In week 12, the Browns defeated the Steelers 24-19, snapping a three-game losing streak. They were 3.5-point underdogs in that game. The O/U line was 36.5, and the teams combined for 43 points. Before that, Cleveland lost 35-14 to the Saints in week 11 and 27-10 to the Chargers in week 9.
Cleveland Browns Stats
Heading into week 13, the Browns rank 31st in our offensive power rankings. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.9, and 29th in yards per game with 292.5. Despite being 3rd in passing attempts, they are 21st in passing yards, averaging 204.3 per game. On the ground, Cleveland ranks 26th in rushing attempts and 29th in rushing yards, with 88.2 per game.
They have struggled on 3rd down, ranking last in the league with a 27% conversion rate, but lead the NFL in red zone conversion percentage at 66.7%.
In week 12, the Browns scored 14 points in the 4th quarter to beat the Steelers, 24-19. Jameis Winston threw for 219 yards on 18/27 passing, with 1 interception. Nick Chubb had 20 carries for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jerry Jeudy led the team with 6 catches for 85 yards. Cleveland converted just 1 of 10 3rd downs but scored on 3 of 4 red zone trips.
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In their 24-19 win over the Steelers, the Browns’ defense allowed 368 total yards but still came up with four sacks and held Pittsburgh to a 43.8% third-down conversion rate. The Browns gave up 120 rushing yards on 34 attempts and 248 yards through the air.
Pittsburgh finished with a yards per attempt of 8.6 in the passing game and a 72.4% completion percentage.
Cleveland’s defense also had 10 tackles for loss in the game, and they were able to hit the quarterback three more times than the Steelers.
Denver Broncos
Denver’s win over the Raiders in week 12 extended their record to 7-5 and gave them two straight victories. Before that, they bounced back from two consecutive losses by beating the Falcons 38-6 in week 11.
The Broncos currently sit 3rd in the AFC West with a 2-2 division record, and they are 4-3 on the road and 3-2 at home. Our projections give them a 63.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.5% chance of winning the division.
Heading into week 13, Denver ranks 23rd in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +5.2 points per game and are 9-3 against the spread. The Broncos have covered in three straight games, including a 32-point win over the Falcons as 2-point favorites in week 11. They also covered the 5.5-point spread in their win over the Raiders in week 12.
Denver’s O/U record is 7-5 this season, with their games averaging 38.8 points.
Denver Broncos Stats
Heading into week 13, the Broncos sit 22nd in our offensive power rankings.
They rank 18th in the NFL with 22 points per game and are 23rd in yards per game with 313.5. Denver is 13th in passing attempts, averaging 33.5 per game, but ranks 22nd in passing yards with 201.9 per game. On the ground, they average 111.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 23rd, on 26.4 attempts per game.
The Broncos are 21st in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage (37.3%) and 25th in 1st-quarter scoring. Despite ranking 7th in red zone attempts, they are 22nd in red zone conversion percentage.
Bo Nix has been solid for Denver, throwing for 273 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 12, following a 307-yard, 4-touchdown performance in week 11. He has not thrown an interception in his last 3 games. Courtland Sutton had 8 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 12. Before that, he had 7 catches for 78 yards in week 11 and 6 catches for 70 yards in week 10.
Denver scored 13 points in the 4th quarter against the Raiders in week 12.
In their 29-19 win over the Raiders, the Broncos’ defense allowed just 16 rushing attempts but gave up 300 passing yards on 31 completions. Las Vegas finished with 369 total yards, but Denver’s defense held them to 28.6% on third down and limited them to 69 rushing yards. They also came away with five sacks and one interception.
The Broncos’ defense was tough on the quarterback, finishing with a +8 advantage in QB hits. Although they allowed 300 passing yards, the Broncos’ defense made it difficult for the Raiders to sustain drives, holding them to just a 28.6% conversion rate on third down.
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Browns are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Broncos have gone 7-3 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Browns’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Broncos’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Browns vs. Broncos Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | -125 | +207 | -2 | +5.5 |
| Broncos | +105 | -251 | +2 | -5.5 |
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: Cleveland +5.5
While Denver’s offense has looked rejuvenated lately, skeptics might point out that their big numbers have come against the likes of the Falcons and Raiders—hardly the league’s defensive elite.
Cleveland’s gritty defense could present a tougher challenge, and the Browns aren’t a team that backs down easily, even as underdogs.
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Browns to cover as road underdogs in this week 13 matchup between the Browns and Broncos. The point spread lines have the Browns at +5.5, and with our projected score being 23-21 in favor of the Broncos, we are taking the Browns to cover.
The betting lines reflect the uphill battle for Cleveland, with Denver favored by 5.5 points and a total set at 41.5. Denver’s against-the-spread record has been shaky against AFC North opponents (2-6 in their last eight) and late in the season (2-4 ATS in December over their last six).
Combine that with Cleveland’s knack for grinding out close games, and this matchup feels like it could be tighter than the line suggests.
Cleveland is looking better of late and they’ll bring the momentum from last week into this one. Look for them to keep it close.
As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 41.5 points, we have this game finishing with 44 combined points. So, our pick is to take the over with some room between our projection and the current O/U line.
Expect plenty of energy and a potential slugfest in the high altitude of Mile High. Stay tuned—this one has the makings of a Monday night classic!
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Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
We’re thankful for YOU, #BroncosCountry 🧡 pic.twitter.com/cIZeQo6emV
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 28, 2024
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