Free NFL Week 3 Pick: Bears vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs free NFL Week 3 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bears taking on the Chiefs on Sunday, September 24th at the Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 3 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Chicago Kansas City matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 3
(0-2) Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)
Date: Sunday, September 24th
Time: 4:25 ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
NFL Week 3 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Chicago +13 | Kansas City -13
Week 3 NFL Moneyline Odds: Chicago +517 | Kansas City -758
NFL Betting Total: O/U 48
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The Chicago Bears (0-2) are prepping for an away showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday, facing the Kansas City Chiefs (1-1).
Our offshore sportsbook tips Chicago as 11.5-point underdogs, with a betting total set at 48.5. Chiefs stand strong at -750 ML favorites for straight-up bettors, while the Bears embrace their underdog status at +575.
The Bears sit at 0-2 ATS, and the Chiefs at 1-1 ATS.
Tune in to our NFL football handicapping blog for key insights on this thrilling matchup!
Last season, the Bears and Chiefs did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Chiefs have the leg up at 2-1. The Chiefs also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 25 points per game leading to an over/under record of 0-3.
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Chicago Bears
The Bears come into their matchup against the Chiefs with a 0-2 record. In the NFC-North, they are 4th and 16th in NFC overall standings. The Bears’ scoring margin for the season is currently -14. This has contributed to their ATS record of 0-2.
The Bears’ 27-17 loss to the Buccaneers is one of their worst margins of defeat in recent history. The Bears’ defense allowed 437 yards of total offense which included 120 yards on the ground and 317 through the air. Offensively, the Bears finished with 236 of total offense.
Chicago’s 10 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 2.5 point underdogs.
Quarterback Justin Fields threw for one touchdown and ran for 1 score. Fields completed 55% of his passes for 211 yards.
Chicago Bears Stats
Against the Buccaneers, the Bears ran the ball 16 times, with Khalil Herbert leading the team with 35 yards. Justin Fields threw the ball 29 times for 211 yards and a passer rating of 61.
Heading into this week’s matchup with the Chiefs, the Bears defense has given up an average of 32.5 points per game. They are currently 14th in quarterback hits and have allowed an average of 383.0 yards per contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
In their game against the Bears, the Chiefs will aim to improve their 1-1 record. This positions them 2nd in the AFC-West and 7th in the AFC. At present, the Chiefs have a 1-1 record against the spread. All of their games this season have seen them as the favored team.
In the Chiefs’ 17-9 win over the Jaguars, the Chiefs’ offense finished with 399 yards of offense compared to the Jaguars’ 271. The Chiefs went 4/13 on 3rd down, while the Jaguars converted on 30.8% of their 3rd down attempts.
Going into the game, Kansas City was favored by 3 and went on to cover the spread. RB Isiah Pacheco had a big game, throwing for 305 yards on a passer rating of 98.
Mahomes completed 70% of 41 attempts in the game.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
On offense, the Chiefs finished with 399 yards against the Jaguars. On third-down situations, the Chiefs had 30.8% conversion rate. Notably, Isiah Pacheco led the rushing attack with 70 yards, while Patrick Mahomes passed for 305 yards.
Looking at Kansas City’s defense, they currently stand 3rd in points allowed. Opponents have been averaging 15 points per game and 319.5 yards per contest against them.
Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Bears are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Chiefs are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chiefs have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Bears’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Chiefs’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Bears vs. Chiefs Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | +480 | +525 | +11.5 | +13 |
| Chiefs | -650 | -732 | -11.5 | -13 |
4* Free Week 3 NFL Betting Prediction: Chicago +13
My point spread pick for this game between the Bears and Chiefs is in favor of the Bears covering as road underdogs. They are currently getting 13 points, and I expect them to cover this spread.
Why? You ask…
While it’s clear that there’s a significant disparity in quality between the Bears and Chiefs, the Bears possess a formidable defense capable of containing the Chiefs’ offense. After ranking 31st in total defense last season, they’ve made significant improvements tailored to this style of matchup.
They’ve bolstered their presence in the middle, which could impede Pacheco’s effectiveness, thus curtailing the Chiefs’ play-action opportunities. Players like Billings, Edwards, Dexter, Pickens, and Edmunds will all play pivotal roles in determining the outcome of this game.
Lastly, it’s imperative for Fields to bounce back. Starting the year with 427 passing yards, only 2 TD’s, and 3 INT’s is far from the ideal beginning.
However, facing Mahomes on the opposite side of the field should motivate Fields to elevate his performance.
In all of Chicago’s previous games this season, the over/under lines have been set lower than this week’s line of 48. I’m leaning towards the under, as we believe this line is too high for these teams.
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Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Can't wait for Moore moments like this. pic.twitter.com/8X2iaFgMAe
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 19, 2023
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