Free NFL Week 3 Pick: Bills vs. Commanders Odds
Looking for Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders free NFL Week 3 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bills taking on the Commanders on Sunday, September 24th at the FedEx Field. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 3 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Buffalo Washington matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 3
(1-1) Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders (2-0)
Date: Sunday, September 24th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: FedEx Field
NFL Week 3 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Buffalo -6.5 | Washington +6.5
Week 3 NFL Moneyline Odds: Buffalo -279 | Washington +222
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44.5
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After two weeks of NFL action, we’re getting a grasp of each team’s form. Sunday, the (1-1) Buffalo Bills clash with the (2-0) Washington Commanders on CBS at 1:00PM ET, from FedEx Field.
Check our offshore sportsbooks for the freshest odds: Bills -6.5 vs. Commanders +6.5 on the spread, Bills (-280) vs. Commanders (+230) on the money line, and a total of 44.5.
Both teams have 1-1 ATS records in 2023.
Stay tuned to our NFL football handicapping blog for insights on this thrilling matchup!
The Bills and Commanders did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Bills have a record of 2-1. The Bills also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 51 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
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Buffalo Bills
As they take on the Commanders, the Bills will be looking to build on their 1-1 record. This currently places them at 3rd in the AFC-East and 8th in the AFC. When it comes to the spread, the Bills have a 1-1 record. Heading into week 3, their scoring margin is at +11 (per game).
In the Bills’ 38-10 win over the Raiders, the Bills controlled the time of possession at 40:04 to 40:04 for the Raiders. The Bills’ offense averaged 5.2 yards per rushing attempt and finished with a total of 450 yards.
Defensively, they gave up 240 yards of offense to the Raiders. Going into the game, Buffalo was favored by 7.5 and went on to cover the spread.
Josh Allen threw for 274 yards while completing 83% of his passes and throwing for 274. Allen threw for three touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Offensively, Josh Allen ended with 274 passing yards with a completion rate of 83%. The Bills ran the ball 35 times, gaining 183 yards. The team converted 7 of 13 third-down opportunities.
Defensively, the Bills are currently ranked 9th in tackles for loss and 8th in sacks. Their opponents have been putting up an average of 16 points per game against them and accumulating 264.5 yards per contest.
Washington Commanders
As the Commanders travel to take on the Bills, they are a perfect 1-0 on the road and have an overall record of 2-0. In the NFC-East, the Commanders are in 3rd place and 8th in the NFC. The Commanders’ scoring margin for the season is currently +3.
This has contributed to their ATS record of 1-1.
In a game that featured plenty of scoring, the Commanders took down the Broncos by a score of 35-33. The Commanders went 3/10 on third down and racked up 388 yards of offense.
On the other side, the Broncos averaged 5.3 yards per attempt and finished with 122 rushing yards. The Broncos threw for 277 yards. Washington went into the game as the underdog (+3.5), giving them a straight-up and ATS win.
Sam Howell threw for 299 yards while completing 69% of his passes and throwing for 299. Howell threw for two touchdowns.
Washington Commanders Stats
Washington’s offense finished with 388 yards of total offense vs. the Broncos. On third down, the Commanders converted at a rate of 30%. Brian Robinson Jr. was the Commanders’ top rusher with 87 yards while Sam Howell threw for 299 yards.
On defense, the Commanders are giving up an average of 195.5 passing yards per game and 109.0.
In terms of sacks, Washington is 1st among other defenses and they are giving up 24.5 points per game and 304.5 yards.
Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Bills are 2-3 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Commanders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Bills are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Commanders have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Bills’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Commanders’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Bills vs. Commanders Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -230 | -291 | -5.5 | -6.5 |
| Commanders | +190 | +237 | +5.5 | +6.5 |
4* Free Week 3 NFL Betting Prediction: Washington +6.5
Something to consider here is the Bills host the Dolphins next week. Not to say Bills will mail it in, or pull starters or anything but there’s always a look ahead by teams when they take on their big rivals the next week.
Not often are 2-0 teams in the NFL +6.5 underdogs, but it does happen occasionally. Having said that though, I still think you should look for the Commanders to continue this momentum, making them a good pick at +6.5.
New ownership, new attitudes, and a phenomenal defense, it’s an NFL hat-trick!
For this Bills vs. Commanders matchup, we see there being good value on grabbing a Commanders team that is coming off both a straight-up and and ATS win.
Sure Buffalo will likely win straight up, but it will probably be due to some X-factor like weather or penalties or missed FG’s. This will be a tight matchup.
With the over/under line sitting at 44.5, my bet is to take the over. So far, Washington have combined with their opponents to average 52 points per game, look for this game to surpass 44.5.
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Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Commanders NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
On the rise ⬆️
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) September 19, 2023
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