Free NFL Week 7 Pick: Bills vs. Patriots Odds
Looking for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots free NFL Week 7 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bills taking on the Patriots on Sunday, October 22nd at the Gillette Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 7 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Buffalo New England matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 7
(4-2) Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots (1-5)
Date: Sunday, October 22nd
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA
NFL Week 7 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Buffalo -8 | New England +8
Week 7 NFL Moneyline Odds: Buffalo -396 | New England +309
NFL Betting Total: O/U 41.5
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This week in NFL betting, we’re looking at the matchup between the Buffalo Bills (4-2, 3-3 ATS) and the New England Patriots (1-5, 1-5 ATS). The game is set for Sunday, October 22nd, at 1:00 ET in Gillette Stadium, Foxborough MA.
The betting odds for NFL Week 7 are as follows: Buffalo -8 for the spread, Buffalo -396 for the Moneyline, and New England +309. The over/under is set at 41.5 points.
The Patriots are back home after a 21-17 loss in Las Vegas, while the Bills secured a narrow 17-9 win against the Giants on Sunday night. Keep an eye on the NFL injury reports, as Josh Allen is dealing with some health issues.
In terms of historical stats, the Patriots and Bills have faced off 127 times, with New England winning 77, Buffalo winning 49, and one tie. Currently, the Patriots are on a three-game losing streak at home.
Last season saw the Bills put together a 2-0 record in the two head to head matchups between the teams. Against the spread, the Bills went 2-0 while the over/under record in these games was 1-1 on an average of 46 points per game.
The Bills’ offense finished their head-to-head matchups with 341 yards per game of offense.
As for the Patriots, they averaged 291.5 yards offensively.
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Buffalo Bills
In the AFC-East standings, the Bills are placed 2nd with a record of 4-2. Within the AFC, Buffalo holds the 5th spot as they approach week 7. Buffalo’s scoring margin up to this point is currently at +14. The team comes in with an ATS mark of 3-3.
Even though the Bills did not score in the first-quarter, they still recovered to pick up the win. Offensively, they finished with 297 yards while giving up 317 yards to the Giants. Even though Buffalo won straight-up, they did not cover the spread as 15.5 point favorites.
Josh Allen threw for 169 yards while completing 63% of his passes and throwing for 169. Allen threw for two touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Offensively, Josh Allen ended with 169 passing yards with a completion rate of 63%. The Bills ran the ball 29 times, gaining 128 yards. The team converted 6 of 12 third-down opportunities.
Offensively, the Bills have an average of 28.8 points per game, which is 3rd in the NFL.
Going up against the Patriots’ offense, the Bills defense has allowed an average of 14.8 points per game. So far this season, they are 3rd in quarterback hits and have yielded an average of 323.8 yards per contest.
New England Patriots
Through six games, the Patriots have a record of 1-5. This mark has them 4th in the AFC-East and 15th in the AFC. In terms of the spread, the Patriots hold a record of 1-5. This has come on an average scoring margin of -13.3.
New England struggled with a slow start in their defeat against the Raiders, failing to register any points in the first quarter. In total, the Patriots managed 259 yards on offense while allowing 348 yards on defense.
New England’s 4 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 3 point underdogs. Mac Jones did not throw or run for a touchdown, while completing 24 of 33 passes for 200 yards. Jones ended the game with a passer rating of 75.
New England Patriots Stats
Facing the Raiders defense, New England’s offense amassed 259 yards in total. On third downs, the Patriots converted at a rate of 50%. Rhamondre Stevenson led the rushing game with 46 yards, while Mac Jones threw for 200 yards.
In terms of offense, the Patriots are at 12 points per game, ranking them 28th in the NFL.
Defensively, the Patriots come into the game allowing an average of 202.7 passing yards per game and 104.0 rushing yards. When it comes to sacks, New England ranks 11th among other defenses. Overall, they are giving up 25.3 points on 306.7 yards.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Bills are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Bills are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Patriots have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Bills’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Patriots’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
Bills vs. Patriots Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Bills | -295 | -396 | -7 | -8 |
Patriots | +240 | +309 | +7 | +8 |
4* Free Week 7 NFL Betting Prediction: New England +8
This is a “gut call”. My gut says because it’s an AFC east game that it will be closer than people think. The Bills continue to lose pieces of their roster thru injury each week, so keep an eye on the injury reports.
Even though the Bills picked up a win in their previous game, they got off to a slow start on offense. Despite being favored vs. the Patriots, I like the Patriots to cover the spread at home (+8).
My favorite play for this week is on the UNDER in this matchup.
So far, all of Buffalo’s games have had over/under lines higher than this week’s line of 41.5. For this matchup, I’m taking the over as we have this game projected to finish with 46 points.
My model has this at 31 points. 35 MAX. Hammer the UNDER. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 7. For New England the total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England’s last 5.
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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
The Patriots search for solutions ahead of the AFC East matchup with the Bills.
Unfiltered Mailbag: https://t.co/7TzPxpmKAl pic.twitter.com/aiDTvBxDjf
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 17, 2023
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