Free NFL Week 10 Pick: Bills vs. Colts Odds
Looking for Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bills taking on the Colts on Sunday, November 10th at the Lucas Oil Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Buffalo Indianapolis matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
(7-2) Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Date: Sunday, November 10th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis IN
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Buffalo -4 | Indianapolis +4
NFL Moneyline Odds: Buffalo -203 | Indianapolis +170
NFL Betting Total: O/U 48
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Get ready for a clash that’s always packed with grit, history, and plenty of betting angles! The Buffalo Bills (7-2) are heading to Indianapolis to face the Colts (4-5) in a classic Week 10 showdown. With Buffalo laying 4 points on the road, there’s a lot to unpack for NFL betting enthusiasts.
This rivalry has spanned 72 games, with the Bills holding a slight edge, and the last time these teams met, the Colts routed Buffalo 41-15 back in 2021.
Revenge angle? 🙂
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Colts have the leg up at 2-1.
The Colts also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 49 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-1-1.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s 30-27 win over the Dolphins in week 9 pushed their record to 7-2, extending their winning streak to four games. The Bills currently sit 1st in the AFC East, with a 3-0 division record, and rank 2nd in the conference.
Our projections give them a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 98.5% chance of winning the division. Heading into week 10, they are 4th in our NFL power rankings.
Buffalo has an average scoring margin of +9.7 points per game and is 5-4 against the spread. They are 4-2 ATS as favorites and 1-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-4, with their games averaging 48.1 points compared to an average line of 45.8.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Josh Allen has been consistent for the Bills, throwing for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 9 against the Dolphins, following a 283-yard performance in week 8 and a 323-yard outing in week 7.
Buffalo’s offense has been strong in the second half, scoring 14 points in the 3rd quarter and 10 in the 4th against Miami. They also put up 10 points in the 3rd quarter and 7 in the 4th in week 8, and 17 points in the 4th quarter in week 7.
Heading into week 10, the Bills rank 4th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.9 points per game. They are 15th in the NFL in passing yards, with 216.1 per game, and 17th in rushing, averaging 119.1 yards per game.
Despite being 2nd in red zone attempts, they rank 28th in red zone conversion percentage.
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In their 30-27 win over the Dolphins, the Bills’ defense allowed 373 total yards. Miami found success in the running game, rushing for 149 yards on 31 attempts. Buffalo’s run defense allowed 4.8 yards per attempt.
Through the air, the Dolphins had 224 yards on 25 completions, with two touchdowns and an 89.3% completion percentage. On third down, Miami converted 50% of their chances. Buffalo’s defense managed just one sack in the game.
Indianapolis Colts
After a week 7 win over the Dolphins, the Colts have now dropped two straight, including a 21-13 loss to the Vikings in week 9. This puts their record at 4-5, which has them 2nd in the AFC South. They are 1-3 in division games and 3-3 in conference play. Our projections give them a 37.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 9.7% chance of winning the division.
Despite their losing record, the Colts are 7-2 against the spread, including a 5-1 mark as underdogs. Their O/U record is 3-6, with the under hitting in four straight games. Their games have averaged 42.3 points, compared to an average line of 44.1.
Indianapolis Colts Stats
Heading into week 10, the Colts rank 23rd in our offensive power rankings, scoring 20.9 points per game (21st in the NFL) and averaging 315 yards per game (22nd).
They are 20th in both passing attempts (29.9) and rushing attempts (26.1) per game, with 193.7 passing yards per game (22nd) and 121.3 rushing yards per game (16th). On 3rd down, Indianapolis ranks 19th with a 36.6% conversion rate, and they are 12th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 11th in red zone attempts.
In week 9, Joe Flacco took over at QB, throwing for 179 yards on 16/27 passing, with 1 interception. Jonathan Taylor led the Colts’ rushing attack with 48 yards on 13 carries, while Josh Downs had 6 receptions for 60 yards.
Indianapolis struggled on 3rd down, converting just 3 of 11 attempts, and did not have any red zone opportunities in their loss to the Vikings.
In their 21-13 loss to the Vikings, the Colts’ defense gave up 415 yards and struggled to get off the field on third down, allowing Minnesota to convert 50% of their third down attempts. The Colts’ secondary allowed 29 completions for 282 yards and three touchdowns. Despite this, they did manage to come away with two interceptions.
Indianapolis’ defense also recorded four sacks and won the tackles for loss battle by a margin of +4. The Vikings found success on the ground, rushing for 133 yards on 32 attempts (4.2 yards per attempt).
The Colts’ defense will be looking to bounce back and tighten up in coverage in their upcoming games.
Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Bills are 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Bills are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Colts have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Bills’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Colts’ have an over/under record of 0-3 in their last 3 games at home.
Bills vs. Colts Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -125 | -203 | -2 | -4 |
| Colts | +105 | +170 | +2 | +4 |
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: Bills ATS
With the point spread sitting at 4 in favor of the Bills, we have a good opportunity to take them to cover as road favorites in this week 10 matchup against the Colts.
The Bills are on fire, winning 13 of their last 16 games, and their defense has been shutting down opponents left and right. Meanwhile, the Colts are calling on veteran Joe Flacco at QB—a tall task against a Buffalo defense known for delivering pressure.
And here’s a nugget to chew on: Buffalo crushed the Jaguars 47-10, a team that handed Indy a loss. This matchup screams action for those of us looking for value, especially with Buffalo’s strong record against the spread as a favorite.
Our predicted score is 20-13 in favor of Buffalo, making them our pick vs. the spread.
For the over/under, with the line at 48 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with our projections pointing towards a combined score of 33.
With a betting total of 48, and odds at -203 for Buffalo on the moneyline, there’s plenty to consider.
Are you backing the surging Bills or banking on an underdog Colts miracle?
Let the Week 10 action begin!
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Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
In our house. pic.twitter.com/OIMzHx6yl3
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 7, 2024
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