Free NFL Week 1 Pick: Ravens vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Ravens taking on the Chiefs on Thursday, September 5th at the Arrowhead Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Baltimore Kansas City matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Date: Thursday, September 5th
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City MO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Baltimore +3 | Kansas City -3
NFL Moneyline Odds: Baltimore +127 | Kansas City -152
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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Ravens vs. Chiefs Gameday
Get ready for the kickoff of NFL Week 1, where the action starts with a bang as the Ravens and Chiefs clash in Kansas City! This Thursday night matchup at Arrowhead promises fireworks, and savvy bettors know there’s value to be found. Kansas City opens as a 3-point favorite, but don’t sleep on Baltimore—getting points with the Ravens could be a sneaky play.
Even though the Chiefs were on the road, they picked up a 17-10 win over the Ravens in their only meeting last year. The Ravens were favored by -4.5 points heading into the game, making the Chiefs’ win as underdogs even more impressive. The game finished with just 27 total points, which was well below the over/under line of 44 points.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ 13-4 record was the best in the AFC last season, and they advanced to the AFC Conference Championship before falling to the Chiefs (17-10). Baltimore was dominant in non-conference games, going 5-0, and they were tough against good teams, going 11-5 vs. above .500 opponents. They also went 3-0 vs. below .500 teams. The Ravens finished the season with a 12-7 record against the spread.
In the 2023 regular season, the Ravens went 7-1 on the road and 7-4 at home. They were the top team in the AFC North, finishing with a 3-3 division record. The Ravens were favorites in most of their games, going 12-4 straight-up. Their over/under record was 8-10-1, and the average over/under line in their games was 42.9, with an average of 43.9 combined points per game.
Baltimore Ravens Stats
The Ravens’ offense was 8th in the league last season, averaging 27.7 points per game, which was 4th best in the NFL. They were also 4th in both home and road scoring, with averages of 30.1 points at home and 24.5 on the road. Baltimore was one of the top rushing teams in the league, leading in both attempts and yards, averaging 156.4 yards per game on the ground.
Despite being 29th in passing attempts per game, the Ravens were 3rd in passing yards per attempt. They finished the season with 367.6 yards per game, ranking 6th in the league, and were 8th in third down conversion percentage.
Zay Flowers, who is heading into his 2nd season in the league, played in 16 games for the Ravens last year and finished with 858 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns. Nelson Agholor, now in his 10th season, had 381 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns. Rashod Bateman, who played in 16 games, had 367 receiving yards and one touchdown. Flowers averaged 8.1 fantasy points per game, while Agholor averaged 3.7 and Bateman 2.8.
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Opposing quarterbacks had a tough time against the Ravens last season, as their defense allowed a passer rating of just 71.64, the best in the league. Overall, Baltimore’s defense was the top-ranked unit, giving up only 16.2 points per game. They also excelled in the turnover game, leading the NFL with 31 takeaways and a turnover differential of +18.
The Ravens’ secondary was particularly strong, giving up only 193.1 passing yards per game and allowing the fewest passing yards per attempt in the league. In the run game, they gave up the fewest rushing touchdowns and ranked 10th in rushing yards per attempt. Additionally, they were tough to score on in the red zone, allowing a red zone scoring percentage of just 40.8%.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs finished last season with an 11-6 record, putting them 3rd in the AFC and 1st in the AFC West. Their season included a Super Bowl win over the 49ers, with a final score of 25-22. Last year’s team was better on the road, going 8-2 compared to 7-4 at home. Against the spread, they had a 13-7-1 record, and they were 7-4 ATS against above .500 teams.
The Chiefs were favorites in 16 games and went 10-6 in those matchups. As underdogs, they were 5-0. Their over/under record was 6-14-1, with their games averaging 39.2 points per game. Their games ranked 27th in the league in average combined scoring.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
The Chiefs’ offense was one of the best in the league last season, averaging 39.2 combined points per game, the 2nd highest figure in the NFL. They were also 3rd in the league in scoring, averaging 27.2 points per game. Overall, the Chiefs were 11-6, finishing 3rd in the AFC and 1st in the AFC West with a 4-2 division record. They were tough as underdogs, going 5-0 straight-up, and they were 10-6 as favorites. Against the spread, the Chiefs were 13-7-1.
Their games had the 27th highest average over/under line at 45.7, with an over/under record of 6-14-1. Last year’s Chiefs were tough on the road, going 8-2, and they were 7-4 at home. Against above .500 teams, they were 7-4, and against below .500 teams, they were 8-2.
Marquise Brown, who played for the Cardinals last season, is one of the new additions to the Chiefs’ receiving room. Brown had 574 receiving yards on 51 catches last year. The Chiefs are also welcoming back Rashee Rice, who had 938 receiving yards and seven touchdowns across 16 games. Brown joins the team after playing in 14 games last year. Brown is heading into his 6th season in the league.
Despite finishing 13th in takeaways, the Chiefs’ defense was one of the best in the league last season, giving up just 17 points per game, the 2nd best figure in the NFL. They were also 2nd in both sacks and quarterback hits. Overall, they allowed just 298.9 yards per game, ranking 5th in the league.
Against the pass, the Chiefs were tough, giving up only 185.8 yards per game and allowing the 3rd fewest passing touchdowns. They also excelled in run defense, giving up the 4th fewest rushing touchdowns and ranking 10th in rushing yards per attempt.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Ravens are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Chiefs are 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Ravens are 8-2 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chiefs have gone 6-3-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Ravens’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Chiefs’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | +124 | +127 | +3 | +3 |
| Chiefs | -151 | -152 | -3 | -3 |
4* Free Week 1 NFL Betting Prediction: Baltimore +3
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Ravens to cover as road underdogs in this week one matchup between the Ravens and Chiefs. Right now, the point spread lines have the Ravens at +3, and with our projected final score being 28-24 in favor of the Ravens, we like them to cover at +3.
For an over/under pick, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 52 points and the O/U line sitting at 46.5 points.
The moneyline has the Chiefs at -152, but Baltimore at +127 offers intriguing upside for those looking to back an upset. With a total set at 46.5, expect a high-scoring affair between two dynamic offenses. Whether you’re looking to cash in on the spread or eyeing live betting opportunities, this is a can’t-miss Week 1 showdown!
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
We out here! Come get your flags, #ChiefsKingdom
🚩: https://t.co/GpPrg9tgam pic.twitter.com/XLqG3akNdl
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 4, 2024
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