Free Week 13 Prediction: Ravens vs. Broncos NFL Odds
Looking for Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Free NFL Week 13 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Ravens taking on the Broncos on Sunday, December 4th, 2022 at M&T Bank Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 13 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Baltimore Denver Matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 13
Baltimore Ravens (7-4) vs. Denver Broncos (3-8)
Date: Sunday, December 4th, 2022
Time: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
NFL Week 13 ATS Betting Lines: Ravens -8 (-110) | Broncos +8 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 13 Moneyline Odds: Ravens -380 | Broncos +285
NFL Week 13 NFL Betting Total: O/U 38.5
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Baltimore currently shares the AFC North lead with Cincinnati and must keep pace. Denver would take a win in any way, shape or form at this point.
Lamar Jackson continues to fight his case for a mega-extension, although rumblings have gotten louder about his merit. The Ravens have blown 4 leads in the 4th quarter this season, which is the most ever by any team in a single season.
Denver is an absolute, can’t-look-away car wreck. The overpaid franchise QB is drawing the ire of his teammates, the head coach does….well, we’re not sure at this point and the offense couldn’t score against LSU. Hackett will serve as a meat shield for national criticism as the Broncos look to insulate Russ’s stock.
Baltimore Ravens
Jackson and the Ravens offense have posted 25 ppg on their way to a 7-4 record. Pythagorean expectation has them as a 6.5 win team, so even with blowing 4th quarter leads, they’ve still overperformed.
As for Jackson himself, he ranks 11th among all QB’s in adjusted EPA/play in case you’re in the, “don’t pay Lamar” camp. Ravens pass catchers leave more to be desired outside of Mark Andrews. Josh Oliver was a surprise leader in their 28-27 loss to Jacksonville.
DVOA is quite bullish on the Ravens offense as well, ranking them 5th overall. Remember, DVOA is opponent-adjusted, so performances against better defenses are seen as sustainable and thus, predictive.
If anything, the defense deserves most of the blame for Baltimore’s meltdowns. The Dolphins, Giants, Jaguars and Bills were all able to lead game-winning drives. Though, the defense deserves plenty of credit for their hand in the Ravens’ +8 TO differential (2nd). It doesn’t take advanced analytics to tell you the Broncos offense has been worthless, so the Ravens get a break this week.
Denver Broncos
“Oof” is an apt descriptor for the Broncos 2022 campaign. About nothing has gone right this year, sans a defense that gets overlooked. Bradley Chubb was the sacrifice not just for money, but for draft pick recuperation that was used in acquiring Russell Wilson.
The offense is the definition of hapless. They’ve sustained key injuries to that side of the ball all year, but there is seemingly no effective plan in place either. The best coaching makes an offense out of what they have, but Hackett seems in over his head.
And DVOA agrees with that analysis (a layup, really) putting the Broncos at 29th in offense, right around the Carolina Panthers and Colts. They’ve posted a meager 14.3 ppg and draw the Ravens, whom DVOA places 9th in total defense.
While they’ve struggled against the run, DVOA places the Bronco defense 4th against the pass, which isn’t entirely unsurprising. Patrick Surtain leads a stifling defense that has only surrendered 17.6 ppg. Even an average offense would place Denver in the thick of the AFC.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver’s last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver’s last 6 games on the road
- Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
- Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
4* Free Week 13 NFL Betting Prediction: u38.5
Denver has been the most profitable under team in the NFL this season, going 1-10 against the over, failing to cover by an average of 10.1 points. Vegas rarely struggles to this level adjusting to a team, but they likely won’t put a total under 35, probably ever.
Baltimore’s offense has yet to repeat their breakout scoring success since week 2 against Miami, and have been favorable to the under as well. The Ravens have hit the under at a 63% clip.
I correctly predicted the under last week with Denver and I won’t change up now.
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