Free NFL Week 17 Pick: Falcons vs. Commanders Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Commanders on Sunday, December 29th at the Northwest Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 17 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta Washington matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 17
(8-7) Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders (10-5)
Date: Sunday, December 29th
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: Northwest Stadium, Landover MD
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Atlanta +4 | Washington -4
NFL Moneyline Odds: Atlanta +171 | Washington -204
NFL Betting Total: O/U 47
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When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Commanders have the leg up at 3-0.
The Commanders also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 44 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta’s 34-7 win over the Giants in week 16 gave them their second straight victory, improving their record to 8-7. The Falcons are now 4-1 in the NFC South, putting them in first place in the division. They also have a 7-3 record in conference play.
Despite their position in the standings, our power rankings have Atlanta 21st heading into week 17.
We give the Falcons a 48.3% chance of making the playoffs and the same odds of winning the NFC South. Against the spread, they are 6-8-1 this season, with a 5-4-1 record as favorites and a 1-4 mark as underdogs.
Their O/U record is 5-10, with the under hitting in two straight games.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Heading into week 17, the Falcons rank 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 19th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.8, but they are 9th in yards per game with 360.9. Atlanta ranks 6th in passing yards per game (236.5) and 12th in rushing yards per game (124.4). They are 15th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and 10th in red zone conversion percentage.
In week 16, the Falcons scored 34 points in their win over the Giants, with 17 points in the 2nd quarter and 14 in the 3rd. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 202 yards on 18/27 passing, while Bijan Robinson had 94 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries.
Darnell Mooney led the team with 82 receiving yards on 5 catches.
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Atlanta’s defense was dominant in their 34-7 win over the Giants, holding them to just 45 yards rushing on 13 attempts. The Falcons’ secondary allowed only 189 passing yards and held the Giants to 4.8 yards per attempt.
They also picked off two passes and limited the Giants to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.
Overall, the Falcons gave up just 234 total yards and allowed the Giants to complete only 56.4% of their passes. Atlanta also had three sacks and came away with a positive quarterback hit differential, despite losing the tackles for loss battle.
Washington Commanders
Washington heads into week 17 on a three-game winning streak, including a 36-33 victory over the Eagles in week 16. The Commanders were 4-point underdogs in this matchup but managed to cover the spread, bringing their record to 9-5-1 ATS this season.
They rank 11th in our NFL power rankings and have a +5.6 scoring margin.
With a 10-5 record, Washington has a 93.6% chance of making the playoffs. However, they have just a 1.6% chance of winning the NFC East, as they sit 2nd in the division with a 3-2 record. In conference play, the Commanders are 7-3.
Washington Commanders Stats
Jayden Daniels has been solid for the Commanders, throwing for 258 yards and 5 touchdowns in week 16 against the Eagles, despite 2 interceptions. He was sacked 8 times in week 15 but only once in week 16.
Terry McLaurin had 73 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 15, while Olamide Zaccheaus led the team in week 16 with 5 catches for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Washington is 7th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.8 points per game, which ranks 4th in the NFL. They are 5th in the league with 373.5 passing yards per game and 16th in passing yards, despite ranking 20th in passing attempts. The Commanders are 3rd in rushing, with 152.7 yards per game.
In their 36-33 win over the Eagles, Washington’s defense allowed just 127 passing yards on 15 completions. They also came up with four sacks and held Philadelphia to an 18.8% conversion rate on third down.
However, the Commanders struggled to stop the run, giving up 211 yards on 39 attempts.
The Eagles found success running the ball, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt.
Despite their strong play against the pass, Washington allowed one passing touchdown and forced just one interception.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Falcons are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Commanders are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Falcons are 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Commanders have gone 4-5-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Falcons’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Commanders’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Falcons vs. Commanders Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -130 | +171 | -2 | +4 |
| Commanders | +110 | -204 | +2 | -4 |
4* Free Week 17 NFL Betting Prediction: Atlanta +4
Our pick vs. the spread is to take the Falcons to cover as road underdogs vs. Washington. The point spread has the Falcons at +4, and we have them winning 31-23, making them a great pick to cover.
For an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 47 points, we are leaning towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 54 points.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Winning time moments pic.twitter.com/2dLgoiPre5
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 28, 2024
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