Free NFL Week 10 Pick: Falcons vs. Saints Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Saints on Sunday, November 10th at the Caesars Superdome. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta New Orleans matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
(6-3) Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (2-7)
Date: Sunday, November 10th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans LA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Atlanta -4 | New Orleans +4
NFL Moneyline Odds: Atlanta -195 | New Orleans +164
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46
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It’s time for one of the NFL’s fiercest divisional rivalries as the Falcons and Saints face off in Week 10! With the series tied at 55-55, this matchup promises another chapter of intense, hard-fought football.
The Falcons hold a slim edge in recent history, but the Saints, who have won 25 of 37 matchups since 2006, aren’t about to back down.
Over the last three times playing each other, the Falcons have a record of 2-1.
However, against the spread the Saints went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 51 points per game.
This game has everything: the Saints bringing in new energy with Darren Rizzi as interim head coach, Derek Carr back under center, and a Falcons team that’s eager to maintain momentum.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta heads into week 10 with a 6-3 record, putting them in first place in the NFC South. The Falcons are 4-0 in division play and 6-1 in conference games. They’ve won two straight, including a 27-21 victory over the Cowboys in week 9. Before that, they picked up a road win over the Buccaneers in week 8. Atlanta is 3-0 on the road this season but just 3-3 at home.
Our projections give the Falcons an 86% chance of making the playoffs and an 80% chance of winning the NFC South. They rank 14th in our NFL power rankings. Atlanta has a +0.6 scoring margin and is 5-4 against the spread. Their O/U record is 4-5, with their games averaging 48.6 points per game.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Heading into week 10, the Falcons sit 8th in our offensive power rankings. They are 12th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.6, and rank 8th in yards per game with 364.8. Atlanta is 6th in passing yards per game (246.3) on 33 attempts per game, which is 12th in the league. On the ground, they rank 18th in rushing yards per game (118.4) and 19th in attempts.
Kirk Cousins has been on fire, posting a passer rating of 144 in week 9 against the Cowboys, throwing for 222 yards and 3 touchdowns on 19/24 passing. He had a 4-touchdown game in week 8 and threw for 232 yards in week 7. Bijan Robinson rushed for 86 yards on 19 carries in week 9, while Darnell Mooney led the team with 5 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown.
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Despite giving up 137 rushing yards on just 21 attempts, the Falcons’ defense held the Cowboys to a 23.1% third-down conversion rate in their most recent game, which Atlanta won 27-21. The defense also recorded three sacks and limited Dallas to 62% completion percentage. The Falcons allowed 241 passing yards, with two passing touchdowns, and 378 total yards.
Even though the Falcons allowed 378 yards, they did enough to help secure the win. They also won the quarterback hit battle by a margin of +4, while losing the tackles for loss battle by -2.
New Orleans Saints
After starting the season 2-0, the Saints have now lost seven straight games, including a 23-22 loss to the Panthers in week 9. New Orleans was a 7-point favorite in this matchup, but they couldn’t hold on for the win, dropping their record to 2-7. The Saints now rank 24th in our power rankings and have just a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs.
New Orleans is 3-6 against the spread this season and has failed to cover in five straight games. Their O/U record is 6-3, with their games averaging 48.4 points per game.
New Orleans Saints Stats
After struggling to score in the second half of weeks 7 and 8, the Saints put up 6 points in the 4th quarter of their week 9 loss to the Panthers. Derek Carr threw for 236 yards and a touchdown, completing 18 of 31 passes without an interception. Alvin Kamara had a big game, rushing for 155 yards on 29 carries and leading the team in receiving with 6 catches for 60 yards.
New Orleans ranks 15th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23, and sits 16th in yards per game with 331.4. They have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 38.1% of their attempts, which ranks 16th in the league. In our offensive power rankings, the Saints are currently 20th.
In their 23-22 loss to the Panthers, the Saints’ defense gave up just 246 total yards. They defended the run well, allowing only 80 yards on 23 attempts. Against the pass, they gave up 166 yards and one touchdown. New Orleans also came away with one interception and held Carolina to a 40% conversion rate on third downs. The Saints’ offense missed a game-winning extra point with no time left on the clock.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Falcons are 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Falcons are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Saints have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Falcons’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Saints’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Falcons vs. Saints Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -125 | -195 | -1.5 | -4 |
| Saints | +105 | +164 | +1.5 | +4 |
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: New Orleans +4
The recent trend? Tight, nail-biting finishes—three of the last five games have been decided by a field goal or less, and we’re likely in for another close one.
Both squads are expected to focus on the run game, grinding down the clock and leaning on their defenses. Atlanta’s recent road performance (5-5 ATS) leaves room for doubt, and with New Orleans rallying behind Carr and Rizzi, we could see the Saints covering that +4 spread.
Our pick vs. the spread in this Falcons vs. Saints matchup is to take the Saints to cover as home underdogs. The point spread lines have the Falcons as 4-point favorites, and we have the Saints keeping this one close but losing by 1.
For the over/under, with the line sitting at 46 points, we are leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 43.
This game should be physical, tense, and could keep bettors on the edge of their seats until the very end!
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Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Saints vs Falcons in the DOME.
Enough said 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/gYxfvPXfRg
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) November 7, 2024
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