Free NFL Week 14 Pick: Falcons vs. Vikings Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Vikings on Sunday, December 8th at the U.S. Bank Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 14 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta Minnesota matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 14
(6-6) Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Date: Sunday, December 8th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis MN
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Atlanta +5 | Minnesota -5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Atlanta +190 | Minnesota -228
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46
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The stage is set for a Week 14 NFC clash as the Minnesota Vikings host the Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium.
This matchup is rich with history, with Minnesota holding a 21-12 edge in their 33 meetings, including a thrilling 31-28 Vikings win just last month in Atlanta.
That game showcased Joshua Dobbs facing off against Taylor Heinicke in a high-scoring duel, and now, the stakes are even higher as both teams fight for playoff positioning.
When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Vikings have the leg up at 2-1. The Vikings also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 53 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
Minnesota comes in with a shiny 10-2 record, but questions linger about their level of competition.
Atlanta Falcons
After three straight losses, the Falcons now sit at 6-6, but they still hold the top spot in the NFC South thanks to a 4-1 division record.
The Falcons bring their grind-it-out style to Minneapolis, where they’ll look to spoil the Vikings’ December woes.
Atlanta is 6-2 in conference play, and they are 3-2 on the road and 3-4 at home. Our projections give the Falcons a 52.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 49.2% chance of winning the division. Heading into week 14, they rank 18th in our NFL power rankings.
Atlanta has a -2.8 scoring margin this season and is 5-7 against the spread. They have failed to cover in three straight games, including a 17-13 loss to the Chargers in week 13. The O/U record for the Falcons is 4-8, with the under hitting in four consecutive games.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Heading into week 14, the Falcons rank 13th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.4, and are 8th in yards per game with 360.6. Atlanta ranks 4th in passing yards per game (242.8) on 33.8 attempts per game, which ranks 12th. On the ground, they are 14th in both rushing attempts and yards per game, averaging 117.8 yards. The Falcons have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 35.9% of their attempts, which ranks 23rd in the league, but they are 9th in red zone conversion percentage.
Kirk Cousins threw 4 interceptions in week 13, finishing with a passer rating of 39 after going 24/39 for 245 yards in a loss to the Chargers. Bijan Robinson rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries, while Ray-Ray McCloud III led the team with 95 receiving yards on 4 catches. Atlanta scored just 6 points in the 2nd half, all coming in the 3rd quarter.
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In their 17-13 loss to the Chargers, the Falcons’ defense allowed just 131 passing yards on 17 completions. Despite their strong performance, Atlanta still came up short. The Falcons’ run defense was also solid, allowing just 56 yards on 17 attempts. They pressured the quarterback effectively, finishing with five sacks and winning the QB hit battle by four.
The Falcons held the Chargers to a 27.3% conversion rate on third down and limited them to 187 total yards. Even though they played well in this game, Atlanta’s defense didn’t get enough support from their offense.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings extended their winning streak to five games with a narrow 23-22 victory over the Cardinals in week 13, bringing their record to 10-2. This run includes a 30-27 win over the Bears in week 12 and a 23-13 win over the Titans in week 11. Minnesota ranks 7th in our power rankings and has a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, but they have just a 10% chance of winning the NFC North, where they are 2-1 and sit in 2nd place.
Heading into week 14, the Vikings are 7-4-1 against the spread, with a +6.5 scoring margin. They are 4-4-1 ATS as favorites and 3-0 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-8, with their games averaging 43 points compared to an average line of 44.4.
Minnesota Vikings Stats
Sam Darnold has posted three consecutive games with a passer rating over 100, including a 111 rating in week 13 against the Cardinals, where he threw for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. However, he was sacked 5 times in that game. Justin Jefferson led the receiving corps with 7 catches for 99 yards, while Darnold also led the team in rushing with 22 yards on 4 carries.
Heading into week 14, the Vikings rank 8th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.8, and they are 13th in total yards per game with 344.6. They average 231.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 10th, and they are 17th in rushing, with 113 yards per game. On 3rd down, they are 14th in the league, converting 38.7% of their attempts.
In their 23-22 win over the Cardinals, the Vikings’ defense gave up 406 yards, with Arizona running for 154 yards on 31 attempts. Despite allowing a lot of yards on the ground, Minnesota’s defense made some key plays, intercepting two passes and holding Arizona to a 38.5% conversion rate on third down. The Vikings’ defense also limited the Cardinals to 5.6 yards per pass attempt.
Arizona completed 31 passes for 252 yards against Minnesota, and the Vikings’ defense allowed one passing touchdown. They managed just one sack in the game and lost the tackles for loss battle by -1.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Falcons are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Vikings are 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Falcons are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Vikings have gone 4-3-3 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Falcons’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Vikings’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Falcons vs. Vikings Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -118 | +192 | -1 | +5 |
| Vikings | -102 | -230 | +1 | -5 |
4* Free Week 14 NFL Betting Prediction: Atlanta +5
The Vikings December struggles are hard to ignore—0-6-2 ATS in their last eight games during the month—and they’ll need to buck that trend to cover as 5-point favorites.
Meanwhile, Atlanta, sitting at 6-6, has been sneaky good against NFC opponents, covering the spread in four of their last six.
Our pick vs. the spread in this week 14 matchup between the Falcons and Vikings is to take the Falcons to cover as road underdogs. Even though the Vikings are favored by 5 points, we have the Falcons losing 27-26 but covering the spread.
With the total set at 46, this game promises plenty of action.
For an over/under pick, we really like the over, with a projected combined score of 53 points. With the line sitting at 46 points, there is a lot of value in taking the over in this one.
Whether you’re eyeing Minnesota’s offensive firepower or Atlanta’s ATS edge, there’s no shortage of angles for savvy bettors to dissect in this NFC showdown!
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Fought until the finish and came out ahead.
📺: https://t.co/c3XSkQEwPu pic.twitter.com/K6wwduTTBi
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 4, 2024
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