Free NFL Week 15 Pick: Falcons vs. Raiders Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Raiders on Monday, December 16th at the Allegiant Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 15 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta Las Vegas Monday Night Football matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 15
Monday Night Football on ESPN
(6-7) Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
Date: Monday, December 16th
Time: 8:30 ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas NV
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Atlanta -4.5 | Las Vegas +4.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Atlanta -227 | Las Vegas +185
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44
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Week 15 NFL action brings us a fascinating Monday night showdown between the Atlanta Falcons (6-7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) at Allegiant Stadium.
While the Falcons lead the all-time series 8-7, their dominance feels like ancient history, with their most recent meeting in 2020 ending in a 43-6 Atlanta blowout. A lot has changed since Derek Carr and Matt Ryan last squared off, and now these two teams find themselves heading in very different directions.
Over the last three times playing each other, the Falcons have a record of 3-0. The Falcons also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1.
These games averaged a combined total of 51 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta’s losing streak now stands at four games following a 42-21 road loss to the Vikings in week 14. This dropped the Falcons to 6-7 on the season, leaving them 2nd in the NFC South. Despite their recent struggles, they still have a 4-1 division record and are 6-3 in conference play. Our power rankings have Atlanta 19th heading into week 15, and we give them a 30.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 26.0% chance of winning the division.
Against the spread, the Falcons are 5-8, with an average scoring margin of -4.2 points per game. They have also lost four straight ATS, including a 21-point loss to the Vikings in week 14, where they were 6-point underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-8, with their games averaging 47 points per game compared to an average line of 46.5.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Heading into week 15, the Falcons are 13th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 17th in the NFL with 21.4 points per game and are 8th in total yards, averaging 371 per game. Atlanta has been strong in the passing game, ranking 2nd in the league with 250.2 passing yards per game on 34 attempts per contest. They are 10th in rushing attempts and 12th in rushing yards, averaging 120.8 per game. On 3rd down, they are 18th in the NFL, converting 37.3% of their attempts, and they rank 11th in red zone conversion percentage at 36.6%.
Kirk Cousins threw for 344 yards in week 14, completing 23 of 37 passes, but he also had 2 interceptions and no touchdowns. Bijan Robinson rushed for 92 yards on 22 carries, while Darnell Mooney led the team with 6 catches for 142 yards. The Falcons scored 21 points against the Vikings, with 11 coming in the 3rd quarter, but they were shut out in the 4th quarter.
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In their 42-21 loss to the Vikings, the Falcons’ defense struggled to slow down the passing game, giving up 318 yards through the air, including five touchdowns. Minnesota’s passing attack was efficient, completing 78.6% of their passes and converting 66.7% of their third down attempts. Despite this, Atlanta did manage to get to the quarterback, finishing with four sacks.
On the ground, the Falcons allowed 115 yards on 24 attempts, with Minnesota averaging 4.8 yards per rush. The Atlanta defense will need to make significant improvements in coverage and run defense to bounce back from this performance.
Las Vegas Raiders
Heading into week 15, the Raiders sit at 2-11 and have dropped nine straight games. Their last win came in week 4, when they beat the Browns 20-16, but they haven’t been able to snap their losing streak since then. In week 14, Las Vegas fell to the Buccaneers 28-13, leaving them with a 0-5 record in the AFC West and 2-8 in the conference. The Raiders are 4th in the division and 16th in the AFC, and they have a 1-4 record at home and are 1-7 on the road.
Our power rankings have the Raiders 25th going into week 15, and they have a -9.6 scoring margin this season. Against the spread, Las Vegas is 5-8, with a 5-7 record as underdogs and 0-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 8-5, with the under hitting in their last two games.
Las Vegas Raiders Stats
Heading into week 15, the Raiders rank 32nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 25th in the NFL in both points per game (18.2) and yards per game (303). Despite ranking 4th in passing attempts, they are 16th in passing yards per game, with 223.9. On the ground, Las Vegas ranks 29th in rushing attempts and last in rushing yards per game, with 79.1. They are 26th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 34.3% success rate, but have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 4th in conversion percentage.
Aidan O’Connell struggled in week 14, throwing for just 104 yards and an interception on 11/19 passing. Before that, he had a 340-yard, 2-touchdown performance in week 13. Sincere McCormick led the team in rushing in week 14, with 78 yards on 15 carries, while Michael Mayer had 7 catches for 68 yards.
In their 28-13 loss to the Buccaneers, the Raiders’ defense gave up 152 rushing yards on just 26 attempts, allowing Tampa Bay to control the game on the ground. Despite allowing just 18 completions, Las Vegas gave up 268 yards through the air, including three passing touchdowns. The Raiders did come up with two interceptions and recorded four sacks in the game.
The Raiders struggled on third down, allowing the Buccaneers to convert 41.7% of their third down attempts. Las Vegas also allowed Tampa Bay to average 9.2 yards per pass attempt, making it difficult to keep up in the passing game.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Falcons are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Falcons are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Raiders have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Falcons’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Raiders’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Falcons vs. Raiders Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -118 | -227 | -1 | -4.5 |
| Raiders | -102 | +186 | +1 | +4.5 |
4* Free Week 15 NFL Betting Prediction: Las Vegas +4.5
Atlanta comes in as 4.5-point favorites, but the trends are not in their favor. They’ve struggled mightily of late, going just 1-4 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last five games.
Road woes have been a long-term issue for the Falcons, with a dismal 5-15 SU record in their last 20 away matchups. Meanwhile, the Raiders might be enduring a tough season, but they shine under the Monday night lights, winning seven of their last 10 Monday games.
For this week 15 matchup between the Falcons and Raiders, we are picking the Falcons to win 23-22. Even though the Raiders are the home team and are currently 4.5-point dogs, we like the Falcons to win straight up, but the Raiders will do enough to keep it within the number.
The point spread pick is to take the Raiders to cover the +4.5.
Looking to get down on the total? My model has this one coming in at 45 total points. I’d make a small wager on the OVER 44. Keep it light though. I don’t trust the kickers in this one! 🙂
Bettors should consider the dynamics of these two faltering squads. Can Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins step up under pressure, or will Vegas ride their prime-time mojo to an upset cover?
Either way, this matchup promises plenty of intrigue for bettors and fans alike.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Discussing Sincere McCormick’s game and the primetime matchup against Atlanta in this week’s episode of The Morning Grind ☕️
Tune-in now! #ATLvsLV
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) December 13, 2024
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