Free NFL Week 4 Pick: Falcons vs. Jaguars Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars free NFL Week 4 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Jaguars on Sunday, October 1st at the Wembley Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta Jacksonville matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
NFL London, UK Matchup
(2-1) Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Date: Sunday, October 1st
Time: 9:30 ET
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London, England
NFL Week 4 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Atlanta +3 | Jacksonville -3
Week 4 NFL Moneyline Odds: Atlanta +130 | Jacksonville -159
NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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This week, we have an exciting matchup overseas featuring two teams that had tough losses in Week 3. The Atlanta Falcons (2-1, 1-2 ATS) will face off against the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2, 1-2 ATS) at Wembley Stadium in London at 9:30 AM EDT on Sunday, October 1st.
You can catch the game on ESPN Plus, and in the NFL Week 4 odds, the Jaguars are favored by 3 points. Jacksonville stands at -160 on the moneyline, while Atlanta is at +135. The over/under point total is set at 43.5 points.
This promises to be an exciting matchup across the pond, and make sure to set your alarms early on Sunday morning, as this game kicks off earlier than the rest of the NFL’s Week 4 schedule.
The Falcons and Jaguars did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Falcons have a record of 3-0. The Falcons also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 36 points per game leading to an over/under record of 0-3.
Huge game for both clubs this Sunday! Who do you have winning? Comments welcome below! Weigh in!
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Atlanta Falcons
This week will be the Falcons’ 2nd road game of the season and their first non-conference game of the year. Last year, they went 1-4 against non-conference opponents.
Their current record of 2-1 has them 1st in the NFC-South and 3rd in the NFC. The Falcons have put together a record of 1-2 against the spread. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +0.3.
The Falcons were unable to overcome a bad first half in which they trailed by 10 and ended up losing to the Lions. Overall, the Falcons put up 183 yards of offense while allowing 358.
The Lions finished the game going 4/14 on 3rd down. Atlanta’s 14 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 3 point underdogs.
Desmond Ridder did not throw or run for a touchdown, while completing 21 of 38 passes for 201 yards. Ridder ended the game with a passer rating of 70.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Offensively, Desmond Ridder ended with 201 passing yards with a completion rate of 55%. The Falcons ran the ball 20 times, gaining 44 yards. The team converted 4 of 14 third-down opportunities.
For this season, the Atlanta offense has an average of 18.3 points per game, placing them at 18th in the league.
With a matchup against the Jaguars’ offense, the Falcons defense has allowed an average of 18 points per game so far. They currently are 7th in quarterback hits and are allowing 287.7 yards per contest.
Jacksonville Jaguars
As we enter week 4, Jacksonville is in 3rd place in the AFC-South with an overall record of 1-2. In the AFC, they are currently in 11th place. Jacksonville’s scoring margin up to this point is currently at -6. The team comes in with an ATS mark of 1-2.
Even after possessing the football for 32:03 vs. the Texans, the Jaguars still fell to the Texans. On the ground, the Jaguars averaged 4.3 yards per attempt and went 5/13 on 3rd down.
The Texans ran for 86 yards and threw for 280. Jacksonville also lost the game vs. the spread as they were 7.5 point favorites.
Trevor Lawrence threw for 279 yards while completing 67% of his passes and throwing for 279. Lawrence threw for one touchdown.
Jacksonville Jaguars Stats
Offensively, Trevor Lawrence finished with 279 passing yards while completing 67% of his passes. On the ground, the Jaguars rushed the ball 27 times for 116 yards.
The team converted 5 of 13 third-down opportunities.
Coming into week 4, the Jaguars offense is 16th in the league at 19 points per contest.
Defensively, the Jaguars come into the game allowing an average of 264.3 passing yards per game and 84.0 rushing yards. When it comes to sacks, Jacksonville ranks 9th among other defenses.
Overall, they are giving up 25 points on 348.3 yards.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Falcons are 1-4 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Jaguars are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Falcons are 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Jaguars have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Falcons’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Jaguars’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Falcons vs. Jaguars Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | +161 | +130 | +4.5 | +3 |
| Jaguars | -190 | -159 | -4.5 | -3 |
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: Jacksonville -3
A matchup I’m keeping a close eye on is Jacksonville’s passing game versus the Atlanta secondary.
In their solitary London appearance last year, Jacksonville suffered an unexpected setback against the Broncos. This week, I think they right the ship. They are NOT the team we saw last week against Houston. We all know they’re better than that.
This week’s game features an intriguing matchup as Ridder’s performance diverges at home and away. On the road, his performance has been lackluster, in stark contrast to his home games. In their recent outing against Detroit’s defense, the Falcons managed to gain a mere 2.8 yards per play (YPP).
On the flip side, the Jaguars, boasting the ninth-ranked passing offense, are expected to generate explosive plays when they take the field this Sunday.
Considering Atlanta’s difficulties against Houston, I’m leaning towards Jacksonville to cover with a 3-point advantage.
The Falcons were held without a TD vs. the Lions, and yes they can run the ball, but they can’t pass. A 1-dimensional offense is one any team in the NFL would love to play. Throw in the added bonus that Atlanta is not accustomed to flying to London like the Jags are and I have my pick.
Our model sees the over/under line for this matchup being to low and like the outlook of this game surpassing 43.5 points. The betting model spit out this game finishing with a combined 44 points.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Betting Tweets Of The Day
“We care a lot about what we do… When you don’t play well and you put a lot of work in, it’s obviously frustrating. There’s no panic, there’s all the belief.”@Trevorlawrencee | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/S4kgdf279F
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 27, 2023
https://twitter.com/NFLUK/status/1706956593777012808
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