Free NFL Week 11 Pick: Falcons vs. Broncos Odds
Looking for Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Falcons taking on the Broncos on Sunday, November 17th at the Empower Field at Mile High. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 11 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Atlanta Denver matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 11
(6-4) Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos (5-5)
Date: Sunday, November 17th
Time: 4:05 ET
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver CO
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Atlanta +2.5 | Denver -2.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Atlanta +112 | Denver -134
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44
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The rivalry has been played 16 times, with the Falcons winning 7 and the Broncos winning 9.
The last matchup was on 11/8/2020. That day the Falcons had the better game, winning 34-27 over the Broncos.
But over the last three times playing each other, the Falcons have a record of 3-0. The Falcons also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 49 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-1-1.
Atlanta Falcons
Heading into week 11, the Falcons hold a 6-4 record, which puts them at the top of the NFC South. They are 4-1 in division play and 6-2 against NFC opponents. Our projections give Atlanta an 86.9% chance of making the playoffs and an 85.5% chance of winning the division. In our power rankings, they are 14th going into this week.
Atlanta has a +0.2 scoring margin this season and is 5-5 against the spread. Their O/U record is 4-6, with the under hitting in their last two games. In week 10, they lost 20-17 to the Saints, failing to cover as 3.5-point favorites. The combined score of 37 points was below the 47-point line.
Atlanta Falcons Stats
Heading into week 11, the Falcons sit 11th in our offensive power rankings, scoring 23.8 points per game. They rank 5th in passing yards per game (250.4) on 33.5 attempts per game, which is 11th in the NFL. Kirk Cousins threw for 306 yards in week 10, with a passer rating of 75, after posting ratings of 144 and 145 in weeks 9 and 8, respectively.
Atlanta’s rushing attack ranks 12th in the NFL, with 124.7 yards per game on 26.9 attempts (16th). Bijan Robinson rushed for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 carries in week 10. The Falcons are 17th in 3rd-down conversions and converted 5 of 14 attempts in their last game.
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In their 20-17 loss to the Saints, the Falcons’ defense gave up 269 passing yards on just 16 completions. The Falcons allowed two passing touchdowns and struggled to generate pressure, finishing with no sacks and losing the quarterback hit differential by -8. The Falcons’ defense also allowed the Saints to convert on 38.5% of their third downs.
On the ground, the Falcons gave up 96 rushing yards on 27 attempts, and they allowed the Saints to gain 365 total yards. Despite their struggles, the Falcons’ defense kept the Saints to just 20 points, giving the offense a chance to win the game.
Denver Broncos
After ending a two-game losing streak in week 8 with a win over the Panthers, the Broncos have dropped two straight, including a 16-14 loss to the Chiefs in week 10. Despite the loss, Denver was able to cover the spread, entering the game as 7-point underdogs. The O/U line was set at 42.5, with the teams combining for 30 points.
Heading into week 11, our projections give the Broncos a 34.5% chance of making the playoffs. They are currently 25th in our NFL power rankings and have a +2 scoring margin this season. Denver is 7-3 against the spread, including a 3-0 record as the favorite.
Denver Broncos Stats
Heading into week 11, the Broncos rank 27th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 19.7 points per game, which places them 19th in the league. They are 24th in total yards per game, with 303.7, and rank 27th in passing yards, averaging 186.6 per game on 32.7 attempts (12th). On the ground, they sit 20th in rushing yards per game, with 117.1, on 26.9 attempts per game. Denver ranks 22nd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate (35.6%) and is 18th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 8th in red zone attempts. Slow starts have been an issue, as they rank 27th in 1st-quarter scoring.
Bo Nix threw for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 10, completing 22 of 30 passes against the Chiefs. Courtland Sutton led the team with 6 receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown. Denver scored all 14 of their points in the 2nd quarter, failing to score in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters. They converted 7 of 13 3rd-down attempts and went 1/2 in the red zone.
In the Broncos’ 16-14 loss to the Chiefs, their defense allowed 243 passing yards on 28 completions. The Broncos’ defense played well on third downs, allowing just a 43.8% conversion rate. They also came away with four sacks and limited the Chiefs to 57 rushing yards on 19 attempts.
Despite their strong effort, the Broncos gave up the game-winning field goal to the Chiefs in the final moments of the game. They also allowed Kansas City to convert on 66.7% of their third downs and score one passing touchdown.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Falcons are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Falcons are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Broncos have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Falcons’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Broncos’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Falcons vs. Broncos Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -170 | +113 | -3 | +2.5 |
| Broncos | +142 | -135 | +3 | -2.5 |
4* Free Week 11 NFL Betting Prediction: Atlanta +2.5
With the point spread sitting at 44 points and our projected score being 42 points, we have a strong lean towards taking the under in this Falcons vs. Broncos matchup. As for the point spread, the Falcons are our pick to cover as road underdogs. Even though the Broncos are favored by 2.5 points, we have them winning 22-20, making the Falcons our pick vs. the spread.
For this week 11 matchup, we recommend locking in the Falcons at +2.5 to cover the spread. Our projections have the Broncos pulling out a close 22-20 victory. And with the line currently sitting at 44 points, our lean is to take the under.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
For the first time since they played …
The legendary #NoFlyZone reunites in Denver this weekend! 🚫✈️ pic.twitter.com/T0Iwi9gszl
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 15, 2024
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