Free NFL Week 1 Pick: Cardinals vs. Bills Odds
Looking for Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Cardinals taking on the Bills on Sunday, September 8th at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Arizona Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Date: Sunday, September 8th
Time: 1:00 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Arizona +6 | Buffalo -6
NFL Moneyline Odds: Arizona +220 | Buffalo -271
NFL Betting Total: O/U 48
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Cardinals vs. Bills Gameday
Get ready for NFL Week 1 action with a juicy matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills! Kicking off Sunday, September 8th at Highmark Stadium, this game has all the makings of an early-season thriller. The Bills are currently favored by 6 points, but hold on – the Cardinals are primed to make some noise as road underdogs.
Last season, the Cardinals and Bills did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Bills have the leg up at 2-1. The Bills also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 49 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals’ 2023 season was a tough one, as they won only four games, finishing 4-13 overall. Within their division, they struggled even more, going winless at 0-6 in the NFC West. Arizona’s ATS record as the underdog was 9-8, and they were 5-3 ATS at home and 4-5 ATS on the road. They also went 5-3 ATS as home underdogs.
Against teams with winning records, the Cardinals went 6-7 ATS, while they went 3-1 ATS against teams with losing records. Last year’s games had an average over/under line of 43.9, with an average combined scoring of 46.2 points. Arizona’s over/under record for the season was 10-7.
Arizona Cardinals Stats
The Cardinals were 12th in the NFL last season in third down conversion percentage, moving the chains on 39.1% of their third downs. However, their passing game struggled, finishing 26th in passing yards at just 184.9 per game. This led to an overall offensive power ranking of 24th, with an average of 19.4 points per game. On the road, they scored just 15.8 points per game, ranking 26th, while at home, they were 15th, scoring 23.5 points per game.
Arizona’s rushing attack was a bright spot, ranking 3rd in the league with 139.1 yards per game and 2nd in yards per attempt, with 5.0. They also ranked 9th in the percentage of first downs coming from rushing plays. Despite this, their overall yardage numbers were below average, ranking 19th in both yards per game and yards per play.
Michael Wilson, who played in 13 games last year, is one of the returning wide receivers for the Cardinals. Wilson finished with 565 yards on 38 catches. Greg Dortch also returns after playing in 16 games and recording 280 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. joins the team as a rookie, looking to make an impact in the passing game.
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Arizona’s defense really struggled at home last season, giving up 29.8 points per game, which was 28th in the NFL. Overall, they allowed 26.8 points per game, ranking 31st and only ahead of the Jaguars. Their inability to pressure the quarterback was a big issue, as they were near the bottom in both sacks and quarterback hits.
Opposing offenses consistently attacked the Cardinals through the air, as they had the 3rd fewest rushing attempts against them. This led to the Cardinals giving up the 2nd most passing yards per game, with opposing quarterbacks finishing with a collective passer rating of 101, which was 31st in the league.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are coming off a season in which they went 11-6 and advanced to the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs before losing to the Chiefs (27-24). Buffalo’s playoff run followed a regular season in which they were 11-5 when favored and 1-2 as the underdog. They were tough at home, going 8-3, but just 3-5 on the road. Against teams with winning records, they were 6-4, and against teams with losing records, they were 6-3.
Buffalo’s over/under record was 8-11, with their games averaging a combined 45.3 points per game. Their games ranked 11th in the league in average combined scoring. Against the spread, the Bills were 8-11, going 5-5 vs. the spread against above .500 teams and 3-6 vs. the spread against below .500 teams.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Buffalo’s playoff run ended in the AFC Divisional round with a 27-24 loss to the Chiefs, but they had a successful regular season, going 11-6 and finishing 1st in the AFC East. The Bills were tough as home favorites last year, going 7-2 straight-up, but they were just 4-5 vs. the spread. Overall, they were 8-11 vs. the spread. On the road, they went 3-5 ATS, and at home, they went 5-6 ATS.
Buffalo’s games had an average combined scoring of 45.3 points last year, and their over/under record was 8-11. When favored, the Bills went 11-5 straight-up, and as underdogs, they went 1-2. Against above .500 teams, they went 6-4, and against below .500 teams, they went 6-3.
Buffalo’s receiving group is welcoming rookie Keon Coleman this season. Khalil Shakir, who is entering his 3rd season, played in 17 games last year and finished with 611 receiving yards on 39 catches. Joining the Bills from the Commanders, Curtis Samuel recorded 613 receiving yards and four touchdowns over 16 games last season.
Buffalo’s defense was one of the best in the league at getting to the quarterback last season, finishing 4th in both sacks and quarterback hits. They also excelled in taking the ball away, with 30 takeaways, the 2nd best figure in the NFL. The Bills were tough to score against, giving up just 18.7 points per game, the 3rd best mark in the league.
Overall, the Bills’ defense was the 9th best unit in the NFL. They held opposing quarterbacks to the 2nd fewest passing touchdowns and limited big plays in the passing game, giving up the 2nd fewest passing yards. Against the run, they gave up 4.6 yards per attempt, ranking 11th in the league.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Cardinals are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Cardinals are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Cardinals’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Cardinals vs. Bills Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | +262 | +220 | +7 | +6 |
| Bills | -335 | -271 | -7 | -6 |
4* Free Week 1 NFL Betting Prediction: Arizona +6
With the spread sitting at Arizona +6, there’s great value in taking the Cards to cover. Buffalo may have a powerhouse team, but Arizona’s dynamic offense could keep this one closer than expected.
Our sharp prediction: Arizona pulls off the upset, and we like them to cover with a projected score of 30-21. Get in early and lock in that value!
As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 48 points, we are leaning towards taking the over, as our projections have these teams finishing with 51 combined points.
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
"I don't take it lightly."
Josh Allen and Terrel Bernard react to being named captains: https://t.co/76lNmgpXk9 pic.twitter.com/iDKp1R3itX
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 5, 2024
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