Free Week 4 Prediction: Commodores vs Rebels Odds
Week 4 College football betting sees the Vanderbilt Commodores taking on the Ole Miss Rebels Saturday September 26th at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions.
Vanderbilt Commodores (1-2) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (3-0)
Date: Saturday, September 26th
Time: 7:00 PM
Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford
NCAA Football Spread: Ole Miss -24.5
NCAA Betting Total: 55.5
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After last week’s 43-37 win, Ole Miss has now beaten Alabama back-to-back seasons. I repeat, someone has beaten Nick Saban in back-to-back seasons.
The Rebels didn’t let down the week after their win against Alabama last year as they went on the road to beat a ranked Texas A&M team 35-20.
Ole Miss typically has a good defense but what makes this year’s team different is how well they can put points on the board. The Rebels are averaging 64 points per game this season.
The Commodores picked up their first win of the season last week and now they hit the brutal part of their schedule.
The Commodores will hope to improve on their SEC performance after going 0-8 in conference play in 2014 and having already picked up a loss against Georgia in Week 2.
The number three ranked Rebels are not the ideal team to try to get that started against.
The Commodores have a much improved defense from last season and they showed it right out of the gate.
They faced Western Kentucky in Week 1, who were the 6th best scoring offense in the FBS in 2014, and they held the Hilltoppers to just 14 points.
Unfortunately for Vandy, they only put 12 on the scoreboard and came away with a loss.
Week 2 at home against Georgia, the Commodores played a very strong defensive first half as they only trailed the Bulldogs 14-6 at the break. Vandy couldn’t overcome three Johnny McCrary interceptions though and lost 31-14.
This week’s game at Ole Miss will be Vanderbilt’s first road game of the season. Last season, Vandy played just four true road games and lost all four by an average margin of 24.5 points.
That, along with the matchup against the nation’s leading offense, are enough to scare Vanderbilt from even making the trip to Oxford.
Last week at Alabama, Ole Miss did struggle a bit defensively and gave up a few big plays. If Vandy wants a chance at keeping this one close, they are going to have to break off more than a few big plays.
The Vanderbilt defense is improved but the nation’s leading offense has improved quite a bit from 2014 when the Rebels came to Vandy’s house and beat them 41-3.
After beating Alabama in consecutive years, this Ole Miss football team is not afraid of anything. Relative to the typical SEC schedule, the Rebels don’t have a brutal stretch ahead of them.
They’ll have a tough road game at Florida after Vanderbilt but Florida isn’t the same team it used to be since Urban Meyer left. They then will have home games against New Mexico State and Texas A&M with a trip to Memphis in the middle.
Down the stretch, the Rebels will have Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi State. That’s obviously no cakewalk. But they’ll get LSU and Arkansas at home and Auburn really looks out of sorts right now.
This is the stretch in front of Ole Miss and they are well aware of what this football team is capable of.
The defense has forced 10 turnovers through three games – a bad sign for McCrary and Vandy’s offense. The offense looked great in their first two matchups against easy opponents but still looked impressive last week against a very tough Alabama defense.
Quarterback Chad Kelly has looked very good – a 64.4 completion percentage along with a 9 to 1 TD/INT ratio.
Their running game has multiple backs that can step in and pick up chunks of yardage.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
• Vanderbilt is 2-1 ATS this year but their 2 wins were by 0.5 each.
• Ole Miss is 6-3 ATS in conference games since the start of the 2014 season.
• Ole Miss is 7-3-1 ATS after a win since the start of the 2014 season.
• Ole Miss is 9-6-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.
Free Week 4 NCAA Football Prediction
The Vanderbilt defense did a good job containing WKU quarterback Brandon Doughty in their Week 1 matchup. But Kelly will find ways to make plays and the Vanderbilt offense has been much too inconsistent to count on them to put up a fight. Ole Miss might not reach their average of 64 points per game but the Commodores won’t put up nearly enough points to be a threat.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Ole Miss -24.5
Ole Miss defense has been very good at one thing – forcing turnovers. McCrary has thrown five picks already including three last week. Kelly will shine again in the spotlight. McCrary will show he isn’t ready for it. The Rebels will roll.
Week 4 Free Score Prediction: Ole Miss 42 – Vanderbilt 10
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