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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-08-17 | Penn State -1 v. Nebraska | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Penn State (#561) My clients and I have been betting against Nebraska consistently in recent weeks, a team that has been power rated in the wrong range for the better part of the last two months. The betting markets got the wrong idea about this team in January when they opened Big 10 play with road wins at Indiana and Maryland, followed by a home victory over Iowa. Since that time, the Huskers are 3-12 SU. They’ve lost four straight games by 15 points or more, non-competitive in defeat. Their only victory away from home since New Year’s Day was a minor miracle at Ohio State, stealing a one point win in a game they trailed by five with 30 seconds to play. Last time out, on senior night, at home against Michigan this past weekend, the Huskers were complete no-shows, falling behind by double digits early and never showing the pride, energy and determination to make a run at any point in that game. Tim Miles is clearly on the hot seat and his team has stopped buying into his message. Nebraska’s collapse has been most obvious on the defensive end of the court. In recent weeks, the Huskers have allowed 93 to Michigan, 88 to Minnesota, 88 to Michigan State, 81 to Iowa and 80 to Purdue, not exactly ‘shut down’ defense. Their last five opponents have combined to shoot 51% from the floor and 41% from three point range against them in one ‘no-show’ after the next. I’m not worried one iota about some positive Huskers quotes coming into the Big 10 Tourney. The same players have been delivering the same type of quotes throughout this dismal run. And the Huskers opponent, Penn State, has been feisty as hell in this tournament throughout the Patrick Chambers era, including a 4-0 ATS mark in this tourney over the past two seasons. That’s an ATS run worth riding again today in a game where Nebraska will be hard pressed to compete for 40 minutes. Big Ticket: Take Penn State. |
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03-08-17 | Stanford v. Arizona State +4.5 | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#554) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) Stanford can’t be laying points away from home. The Cardinal went 1-8 SU on the highway in PAC-12 action following an 0-2 road mark in non-conference play. Their only two pointspread covers came in defeat came as +13 and +21 underdogs. And their only road win came at hapless Oregon State (1-17 in conference) all the way back in mid-January. The Cardinal enter PAC-12 Tournament play in the midst of a three game skid; struggling on both ends of the court. They lost both regular season meetings against the Sun Devils, struggling with turnovers on offense and an inability to keep the Sun Devils contained on the perimeter without fouling on defense. The Cardinal got bounced in the opening round here in Vegas last year and went 0-2 ATS in the PAC-12 tourney the year before; their lone win coming by a single bucket; unable to build any margin. Look for Bobby Hurley’s ‘bombs away’ offense to give the Cardinal fits once again this afternoon in a game the Sun Devils are live to win. Take Arizona State. |
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03-08-17 | San Jose State +4.5 v. Utah State | 64-90 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take San Jose St (#547) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) This has been the worst season for Utah State in decades, a program in clear decline since legendary head coach Stew Morrill headed into retirement. They just lost on this floor to UNLV last week, a hard thing to do considering the Rebels comparable decline. San Jose, on the other hand, won here at the Thomas & Mack in Vegas against the Rebels, and won another road game away from home down the stretch at New Mexico. When these teams met in San Jose last month, Utah State shot 55% from the floor and hit 19 of their 20 free throw attempts. They won the game by six points. I do NOT expect the Aggies to approach those elite shooting percentages again here, in a game that has legitimate ‘upset alert’ potential. And it’s surely worth noting that Utah State has a grand total of three pointspread covers all year when laying -3 or higher, not exactly a track record of success in this role. Take San Jose St |
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03-07-17 | Lakers v. Mavs -9.5 | 111-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#704) The Lakers lost by 49 on their last visit to Dallas, and there’s little reason to think that the Lakers are going to give the Mavs a competitive game tonight. It’s not like the previous two meetings this year were competitive either—Dallas won both of those games, at the Staples Center in LA, by a dozen points each time. From all indications, LA is in full-on tank mode again. They’ve lost seven straight games; non-competitive in most of them, with losses by 20 to the Celtics, 17 to the Thunder, 36 to the Suns and 21 to the Spurs during that span. It’s surely worth noting what happened down the stretch of their last game, an eight point home loss to New Orleans. The game was tied at 97 with less than two minutes to play. The Lakers didn’t score again, losing by eight (despite several missed Pelicans free throws) and failing to cover the spread, showing plenty of ‘quit’ in that final sequence. Dirk Nowtizki is live to score his 30,000th NBA point tonight – it’s going to be a raucous crowd in Dallas this evening. And the Mavs have shown plenty of ‘blowout’ mentality at home in recent weeks, beating the Thunder by 15 last time out on the heels of a 13 point win over New Orleans, a 32 point win over Orlando and an 18 point win over Philly since the beginning of February. Dallas hasn’t been installed as the favorite on a regular basis this season – they’ve only gone off as the chalk 11 times in 62 games. The Mavs have dominated in this role from a SU and pointspread perspective, 10-1 ATS when laying points. That’s an under-the-radar angle worth riding again tonight. Take the Mavericks. |
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03-06-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee +1 v. Illinois-Chicago | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin – Milwaukee (#537) My clients and I have been riding Wisconsin – Milwaukee in this tournament, cashing an Under in the Panthers first Horizon Conference Tourney game, then cashing with the Panthers as 8.5 point underdogs in their outright upset victory over Valpo the following night. Fresh off a day off yesterday, the Panthers are primed to cash another outright underdog bet for us tonight. Let me start with an extended excerpt from my last pro- Wisconsin –Milwaukee write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: ‘Wisconsin – Milwaukee has ‘Cinderella’ written all over them, worthy of support in Horizon League Tourney action tonight. The Panthers were supposed to be bad, with preseason projections putting them at the very bottom of the Horizon League. Those projections lived up to reality – Milwaukee finished last, with a 4-14 conference mark. ‘But a funny thing happened down the stretch for LaVall Jordan’s squad. Instead of getting blown out, they hung tough, again and again, away from home against the best teams in the conference. They took Oakland to OT before falling short, hung within six at Valpo, Northern Kentucky and Green Bay, took Youngstown St to OT and, after their upset over the Crusaders, notched three SU victories here in Detroit. ‘Senior guard Cody Wichmann: “Coach put it up on the board (Sunday), we’ve played with every team in this conference. So that … gives us hope, too…Basically, anything can happen is what it comes down to. Freshman year we had the same thing. We were picked not to finish anywhere near the top and we ran the table.” ‘Sophomore guard Brock Stull: “It makes it so the young guys have some sort of faith, trust the process. We know we have played with every single team in this conference. Tournament time is a different ballgame. Anything can happen and I think teams are going to be afraid to play us.” ‘Oakland U head coach Greg Kampe: “They took us to overtime at our place and they’re a 10 seed and we’re a 1, think about that.” ‘ Illinois –Chicago played their most recent matchup with the Panthers back in February at their preferred pace, hanging 85 points in regulation and another 20 in overtime in a bitterly contested 105-100 Flames victory. But right now, the Panthers aren’t letting anybody run and gun against them, slowing down Detroit and Valpo to a crawl in their first two wins of this tourney That’s a problematic pace for a UIC team that has struggled down the stretch, notching only one win since the weekend after Valentine’s Day! Take Wisconsin – Milwaukee. |
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03-06-17 | Pacers +3.5 v. Hornets | 88-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#513) Charlotte isn’t very good, and they’re in a classic ‘letdown’ spot tonight, returning home off a successful end to their road trip – three wins in their final five games. Of course, the Hornets didn’t beat a team with a winning record on that road trip. Their last victory against an opponent with a winning record? How about back on January 20th. Before that, it was January 4th, then December 17th, then November 28th. In other words, the Hornets don’t beat teams with winning records very often; only beating bottom feeders these days. Charlotte isn’t beating anybody but the weakest of the weak at home. They are just 2-6 SU dating back to late January on this floor. Both of those wins came against the worst team in the NBA, Brooklyn. And even in those games, Charlotte didn’t win by enough of a margin to cover the pointspread. My numbers show Charlotte entering tonight’s game with a 1-8-1 ATS mark in their last ten tries as favorites, the lone cover coming against hapless Sacramento. The injury bug has been biting Charlotte all year and they suffered another key one this past week, with Frank Kaminsky hurting his shoulder. ‘Frank the Tank’ had been on a tear, playing the best ball of his NBA career before getting hurt. His absence will be felt here in a tough matchup for the Hornets against Indiana’s emerging young big Myles Turner. The Pacers are in excellent shape for a ‘second night of back-to-backs’ situation – Paul George was their only guy playing more than 32 minutes yesterday, and nine guys saw double digit minutes. This quote tells us all we need to know about the Pacers team chemistry right now; a team that has faced the abyss with a nasty pre-All Star Break slump, and come out of it unscathed, currently the #6 seed in the East. Glenn Robinson III: “We're just sticking together. We know we need these wins. We've got a tough schedule coming up, we're on the road a lot. We just want to play for each other, play hard, and leave it all on the court." That should be enough against a Charlotte team that has no business laying points to any decent foe. Take the Pacers. |
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03-06-17 | Bucks v. 76ers OVER 212 | 112-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Philadelphia OVER (#505-506) The 76ers defense has declined markedly since dealing Nerlens Noel at the trading deadline and benching Joel Embiid with his latest injury related setback. Without a low post defensive stopper, teams are driving into the paint without repercussion against Philly, getting off one good look after the next The results don’t lie. The 76ers have allowed 136, 102, 125, 119, 110 and 112 in six games since the All Star Break while allowing 49% shooting from the floor during that span. A team that ranked in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency for a good portion of the season is in the midst of a free fall now. The Bucks defense isn’t any better, ranked behind Philly for the full season while allowing 50% shooting from the floor in their last five ballgames. But their revamped offense is sizzling, averaging 108 points per game over the past month. And from all indications, we should expect this offense to continue pushing the pace and putting up points in bunches. Milwaukee center Spencer Hawes, coming off a 16 point effort off the bench against Toronto: “I think we were just playing the right way. Everybody was moving the ball. We were playing defense, first of all, and pushing the ball in transition. Everyone was touching it. ... It was just clicking." Bucks head coach Jason Kidd, talking about sitting his bigs and playing uptempo: “Today's game, it's not played like it was in the '80s. You don't have two bigs. Going forward, there's going to be a lot of small ball being played.You put your best five out there. Cleveland puts their best five out there and there's no one probably taller than 6-9." Small ball correlates with fast paced play and Over cashes, plain and simple. When Jason Kidd and Brett Brown have matched up, there’s been one consistent result: Overs! These two teams flew Over the total in the first two meetings this year by double digit margins, now 6-1 to the Over in the last seven matchups. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the OVER. |
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03-05-17 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 138 | 93-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska – Michigan OVER (#849-850) Michigan is most assuredly not playing elite level defense down the stretch of their Big 10 campaign. The stats show it very clearly. The Wolverines rank #12 out of 14 Big 10 teams in defensive efficiency. They rank #327 in the country defending the three point line. They don’t force many turnovers either, leading to consistently poor defensive showings. In their last two games, Northwestern and Purdue lit up the Wolverines defense, combining to shoot better than 50% from the floor against them. And without a bigtime low post shot blocker, Nebraska’s offensive gameplan is primed to generate high percentage looks in the paint, just like they did in the first meeting in Ann Arbor, when they shot 56% from the floor and hung 85 points on the scoreboard. Facing a Michigan defense that has allowed a whopping 50.5% shooting from the floor against them on the highway for the full season, we can expect the Huskers to do their fair share of damage on the scoreboard tonight. Of course Michigan didn’t lose that first meeting – they hung 92 on the Cornhuskers behind 54% shooting. That game was the rule, not the exception for Michigan’s offense, ranked #1 in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency by a wide margin; right between Duke and Kansas in the national rankings (#11). And there’s little reason to expect Michigan’s offense to get shut down here – Nebraska hasn’t been getting stops against anybody of late. In recent weeks, the Huskers have allowed 8 8 to Minnesota, 88 to Michigan State, 81 to Iowa and 80 to Purdue, not exactly ‘shut down’ defense. In a series where the first meeting went Over the total by 43.5 points in regulation, I have little hesitation expecting another relatively high scoring affair in the rematch. Take the Over. |
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03-05-17 | Celtics v. Suns +7 | 106-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Phoenix (#828) I’ve got a big buy’ sign on the Phoenix Suns right now, with the betting markets getting the wrong read on management’s decision to start playing the young guys. Veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight have essentially been benched, creating playing time for the Suns emerging talent. The markets knee jerk reaction: ‘Phoenix is tanking’! But the exact opposite has been true. The Suns have hung 118 and 120 on OKC and Charlotte in their last two games, pulling a pair of outright upsets at home. In fact, they are 4-1 SU & ATS in their last five at home, the lone loss coming by a single bucket against New Orleans. The biggest reason for the Suns recent, under-the-radar surge has been their bench play. Rookie Tyler Ulis is getting his first substantial playing time, and he’s been great: 22 points and 15 assists in 44 minutes over the last two games. Head coach Earl Watson, following the win over Charlotte last week: “Tyler Ulis changed the game.’ Second year forward Alan Williams had 41 combined points in the Suns first 44 games this year. Williams has three double doubles in his last five games, scoring at least 11 points in every one of those contests. Rookie reserve Derrick Jones Jr is heating up as well. No surprise, then, that the Suns bench has outscored the Hornets and Thunder benches 108-45 in the last two games; an emerging trend worth paying very close attention to, from a team that is waaaaaaay off the radar for the vast majority of bettors. This is the epitome of a ‘fat and happy’ spot for the Celtics. Boston is coming off a huge national TV win against the defending champion Cavaliers and a blowout victory at the Staples Center against their historical rival, the Lakers. Up next? Back-to-back showdowns with Western Conference elites – the Clippers and Warriors. Can you say ‘flat spot’? Take the Suns. |
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03-04-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee +9 v. Valparaiso | 43-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin – Milwaukee (#671) Wisconsin – Milwaukee has ‘Cinderella’ written all over them, worthy of support in Horizon League Tourney action tonight. The Panthers were supposed to be bad, with preseason projections putting them at the very bottom of the Horizon League. Those projections lived up to reality – Milwaukee finished last, with a 4-14 conference mark. But a funny thing happened down the stretch for LaVall Jordan’s squad. Instead of getting blown out, they hung tough, again and again, away from home against the best teams in the conference. They took Oakland to OT before falling short, hung within six at Valpo, Northern Kentucky and Green Bay, took Youngstown St to OT and, after yesterday’s win over the Titans, notched two SU victories here in Detroit. Senior guard Cody Wichmann: “Coach put it up on the board (Sunday), we’ve played with every team in this conference. So that … gives us hope, too…Basically, anything can happen is what it comes down to. Freshman year we had the same thing. We were picked not to finish anywhere near the top and we ran the table.” Sophomore guard Brock Stull: “It makes it so the young guys have some sort of faith, trust the process. We know we have played with every single team in this conference. Tournament time is a different ballgame. Anything can happen and I think teams are going to be afraid to play us.” Oakland U head coach Greg Kampe: “They took us to overtime at our place and they’re a 10 seed and we’re a 1, think about that.” Valpo got bounced out of the tourney in their opening game last year, losing SU as nine point favorites to a Green Bay team that already had a pair of wins under their belts on the Joe Louis Arena floor. That isn’t new or different – the last double digit win that the Crusaders have notched on a neutral floor in conference tourney action came back when Butler was still in this league back in 2012. Expect a tight game throughout, and be sure to take at least a taste of the big plus price on the moneyline here.. Take Wisconsin Milwaukee |
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03-04-17 | UNLV v. Fresno State -12 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Fresno State (#616) My clients and I cashed a pair of ‘right side’ winners supporting Fresno State in their last two games, outright upset wins at Boise and San Diego State. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Bulldogs write-up. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “Fresno won nine straight games down the stretch last year (8-1 ATS) capturing the Mountain West Tournament title at the end of that streak; a streak that began in mid-February, as Rodney Terry’s team played their best basketball at this stage of the campaign. And, fresh off four consecutive and covers, the Bulldogs appear to be peaking at the right time again this year. “Coach Terry, talking about their success running their halfcourt offense in a win over New Mexico last week: “It definitely gives you some confidence to be able to do that… we’re just getting to a point right now where we’re able to play through some guys, and when you’re able to get older and get some experience, you’re able to do that and control that a lot more, say, ‘Hey, this is what we want on this possession and let’s execute right now.’ ” “Senior forward Paul Watson: “Each possession, you have to value the ball. That’s something we haven’t done as well as we did last year, but it’s definitely something we’re working on. You have to get a shot up every possession. You can’t afford to turn it over. You have to get a good look and give yourself a chance.” Fresno has shown the ability to win by margin consistently at home, beating Wyoming, Boise, Colorado State, San Jose, Air Force and New Mexico all by nine points or more. On Senior Day, we can expect another inspired performance, especially against a Rebels team that has ‘no-show’ written all over them! This has been a disastrous season for UNLV; arguably the worst season in the history of this once proud program. But the Rebels snapped a nine game losing streak with a win over Utah State at home on Senior Night earlier in the week; taking the pressure off in one of the only 40 minute games they’ve played all year. Forward Christian Jones: “(The victory) means a lot, especially for the seniors. This whole team was stressing we need to get this win for the seniors, and that’s what we did. We played for that whole 40 minutes instead of just one half.” But UNLV hasn’t even managed to play one half of good basketball in any recent road game, losing by 23, 27 and 13 in their three February road tilts, losing ATS by a combined 34.5 points. Their last game against a ‘good’ team – Nevada – was a 94-58 blowout loss. The Bulldogs beat a much better UNLV team than this one three times last year. I’m not expecting this game to be competitive in any way by the time the second half rolls around. Take Fresno St |
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03-04-17 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +2 | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State (#610) This is the ultimate ‘no-show’ game for Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming off an exhilarating, come from behind win against Oklahoma on Senior Night. They have already clinched their 13th consecutive Big 12 regular season title and the #1 seed in next week’s Big 12 Tournament. And Bill Self’s key cogs are all worn down. Over the last five games, out of a possible 205 court minutes (counting OT against West Virginia), Frank Mason has played 199, DeVonte Graham has played 193 and Josh Jackson has played 171 minutes. For a team with legitimate Big 12 tourney and national title aspirations, this game is as meaningless as it gets. I’m not expecting Bill Self to chase hard if (when!) the Jayhawks fall behind – he’s got to manage his stars minutes today! Oklahoma State has been a truly remarkable story this college basketball season. First year head coach Brad Underwood watched his team go 0-6 to open Big 12 play, suffering one excruciating loss after the next. That included a tight loss to full strength Kansas, a two point game with 4:00 to play before Kansas pulled away late. Instead of wilting, Oklahoma State has put together a remarkable turnaround: 10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS since, as hot as any team in the conference heading into their own Senior Night. Coach Underwood: “We’re a good basketball team and have we peaked? Not yet. We have a chance to be an exceptional basketball team and we’re showing that.” It’s not just Underwood talking about his team as a squad with elite potential at this stage of the campaign. Here’s a quote from Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard following the Cowboys 17 point win against the Red Raiders in their last home game: “Brad has really good players. He has an NBA point guard (Juwan Evans), one of the all-time great Big 12 players in (Phil) Forte, and in my opinion he has the most improved player, not only in Big 12, but in college basketball with (Jeffrey) Carroll. He has young players who really play their roles and play productive minutes.” From an offensive standpoint, Oklahoma State is no ‘unranked’ team. In fact, the Cowboys rank #1 in the country, ahead of even mighty UCLA, with a 125.1 adjusted offensive efficiency; the second best college basketball offense of the last TEN YEARS! In a pointspread range where the SU win equates to an ATS cover, the undervalued Cowboys are worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager today. Big Ticket: Take Oklahoma State. |
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03-03-17 | Knicks v. 76ers +1.5 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#824) My clients and I have truly enjoyed the Philadelphia 76ers in recent months, particularly right here at home. All the Sixers do is cover pointspreads, the single best ATS team in the NBA this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS as favorites. In their other 57 games, they’re 37-20 ATS, cashing at a 65% clip for the entire season; a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting markets. At home, Philly has been even better. Waaaaaaay under the radar, the 76ers are now 9-3 SU, 12-0 ATS in their home games since the calendar turned to 2017; the only losses coming in spread covering fashion by five against Houston and by eight against San Antonio. The Knicks are not the Rockets or the Spurs. Both meetings between these two teams this year have been decided in the final seconds by a single point. New York is coming off a rare win. The last time they won back-2-back games? How about before Christmas; 0-9 SU and just 2-7 ATS following a single victory. This is most assuredly not a team to trust as road chalk, a ‘false favorite’ tonight. While New York has proven repeatedly that they are not worthy of support following a win, the 76ers have shown that they are an excellent bet off a bad loss, like their ‘no-show’ in Miami on Wednesday, a 27 point defeat. Head coach Brett Brown: “That's not who we are. I give Miami credit. They exposed us individually, our ability to guard them. That type of result has not been us." Philly off a double digit loss this season? How about 13-7 ATS; moneymakers in this role. Take the 76ers. |
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03-03-17 | Raptors v. Wizards -5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#822) In all four games that Raptors starting point guard Kyle Lowry has missed since his injury, Toronto has trailed by double digit margins. They were able to rally back in the fourth quarter to notch tight wins against the likes of the Knicks and Blazers, going 3-1 SU without Lowry in the lineup. But Washington isn’t the Knicks or the Blazers when it comes to defensive acumen, to put it mildly. And Washington has something to prove against a team that swept the season series last year and won by ten on their first visit to the Verizon Center this season! When Washington beat Toronto on the front end of this home & home series, they led by as many as 24 points, cruising to victory. Don’t be fooled by the nine point final margin – the Wiz were up 17 with less than two minutes to play before a late Raptors flurry. Most importantly, Wizards point guard John Wall had more assists (13) than the entire Raptors team (11). Ball movement has been a real problem for the Raptors since Lowry got hurt – nothing but one-on-one basketball offensively. For a team integrating new parts, like Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker, the lack of continuity at point guard is clearly problematic. The Cory Joseph/Delon Wright combo couldn’t handle John Wall at home on Wednesday, and I don’t expect them to handle Wall in DC tonight either, where the Wizards have been extreme moneymakers. The results don’t lie. Washington at home has been one of the best bets in basketball for months. They’re 19-2 SU in their last 21 at home since early December, while going 16-5 ATS on this floor during that span, a streak worth riding again tonight. Take the Wizards |
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03-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit UNDER 147 | 85-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Wisconsin Milwaukee UNDER (#871-872) Detroit wants to run and gun, exactly what they were able to do on the road at Wisconsin-Milwaukee last week. The Titans played the game at their pace, and won outright as 3 point underdogs, 81-74. The first meeting between these two teams was played at Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s pace, right here in Detroit. The game was tied at 61-61 at the end of regulation, staying Under the closing total of 150 even after overtime. So what should we expect from the third meeting? Wisc- Milwaukee head coach LaVall Jordan tell you himself: “They didn’t see the best version of us this past Friday, and so we get a chance to redeem ourselves from that…. Guarding them without fouling is a big deal, and us trying to control the pace. I thought we did a better job in Game 1 than we did in Game 2. They play up and down, they score a lot of points and then they try to make you play faster than you normally play. In Game 2, they did that. We have to respond better.” Neither team shoots particularly well, from the floor or from the free throw line. For this game to get Over the total, it’s going to take a fast pace, something the Panthers are clearly focused on preventing. That makes this game worthy of an Under wager in afternoon action on Friday. Take the Under. |
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03-02-17 | Manhattan v. Rider -5.5 | Top | 68-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Rider (#770) The Broncs struggled against the Jaspers in the first meeting between these two teams back in January. Rider shot poorly and clanked a bunch of free throws, just 17-29 from the charity stripe, while Manhattan hit 28-35 (80%) from the free throw line in a three point home victory. The rematch less than two weeks ago was a tale of two halves. Manhattan scored 53 points before halftime, taking a nine point lead into the break. Finally, in the second half, Rider figured out how to solve Steve Masiello’s pressing defense and they blew the Jaspers off the court in a 49-29 second half rout. I have full confidence that Rider’s second half success from the last meeting will carry over tonight – they know how to beat this team now! And let’s be honest – this season has been a disaster for Manhattan. A loss here and this 10-21 team can call it a season. It’s surely worth noting that the Jaspers have lost each of their last five away from home by double digit margins, including a 23 point loss right here in Albany against Siena in February. Masiello: “We’re not built to, and nor will I ever build to say ‘let’s get 92 and let them get 90’. It’s just not who I am philosophically. There’s nothing wrong with that, I just don’t know how to play that way. When you don’t get stops, I don’t care how many scoring options you have; in our system, it’s not going to equate to success. It’s about getting stops.” The problem, of course, is that they haven’t gotten stops, ranked #9 in the MACC in defensive efficiency during league play. They’ve allowed 78+ in eight of their nine road losses in conference, and have allowed 51% shooting over their last five games. Rider averaged 98 points per game while going 3-0 SU and ATS down the stretch. This is a senior laden squad -- four senior starters, all of whom average in double digits in the scoring column -- with a legit shot to make a run in this tourney, and they know it. Head coach Kevin Baggett: “Our guys are excited. We have some momentum, but we’ve had momentum going into the tournament before and lost. We’ll focus on the one game, Manhattan, and making sure that we’re ready to go and knowing exactly what we need to do to win the game.” Senior Jimmy Taylor, the team’s leading scorer, on how they beat up on Manhattan in the second half of the last meeting: “Tell everyone to stay aggressive, stay confident in their shots, we are capable of scoring and if the shots aren’t falling, keep shooting. Go inside to our big men, if their shots are falling, then it opens up guys on the perimeter from 3 and, if those fall, it opens up more, we just feed off of each other.” Expect more of the same tonight in a game with legit ‘blowout’ potential. Big Ticket: Take Rider. |
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03-02-17 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -7.5 | 73-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#740) Big man Reggie Lynch is a real problem for Nebraska’s struggling offense. Lynch averages 3.4 blocks per game, but he’s been even better than that lately, coming off an 11 block, 0 foul effort against Penn State last weekend. Nebraska isn’t loaded with strong perimeter shooters – their offensive gameplan relies on the ability to drive the ball to the basket. An interior force like Lynch is a huge obstacle to the Cornhuskers offensive success. Nebraska head coach Tim Miles: “We have to understand what it’s like to go against a shot-blocker. Certain guys do that better than others, but they’re clear on what’s expected.” It’s certainly not like Nebraska has been playing good basketball of late. Miles is clearly on the hot seat for a team that is 3-10 SU in their last 13 games. They’ve been bombed repeatedly on the highway, losing by 16 at Michigan State, by 11 at Iowa and by 12 at Northwestern in recent road tilts; 0-3 ATS. They’re coming off a confidence sapping blowout loss at home to Illinois this past weekend; a team with a ‘glass chin’ right now, unable to respond well to adversity. Minnesota spent a good portion of the season struggling to cover numbers as a favorite. That has changed in recent weeks, a team that is most assuredly gelling at the right time. They’ve won seven straight heading into tonight, with five of those victories coming by nine points or more, in large part due to their dominance on the glass and their strong interior defense. And with Minnesota closing out games well at the free throw line (75% over the last five games), this price range is very reasonable to support the better team at home against a reeling foe. Take Minnesota. |
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03-01-17 | Rockets +2 v. Clippers | 122-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#519) Count me in as a Houston Rockets believer! The addition of Louis Williams at the trading deadline has legitimately moved the needle for a squad that wasn’t short of bench depth and scoring to begin with. In three games since joining the team, Williams has been a sparkplug off the bench, and the Rockets reserves have combined to score only three fewer points than the Rockets starters. That’s a clear indicator of quality depth. But Houston is coming off a particularly cold shooting effort against the Pacers. They were up 18-2 right out of the gate, then went completely flat. Lou Williams: "It was pretty ugly. I think early on we made some shots, got a big lead and probably felt like the game was coming to us too easy and we kind of got lax. They picked up their intensity and I don't think we matched it after that." Houston finished the game shooting just 36% from the floor, and the starters went 3-27 from three point range, a rare off night for an historically elite perimeter shooting squad. Despite those offensive woes, the Rockets STILL ended up with 108 points on the scoreboard, a clear indicator of their offensive prowess. And this is a ‘bet-on’ team off a loss –period; 16-2 SU following their 18 previous defeats this season. The Clippers are 0-2 ATS since Chris Paul returned to the lineup, no surprise for this bettor. Doc Rivers is already making excuses for what might not be a seamless transition back to full health for LA. “Now we've got to get our timing and our rhythm back, because haven't played with this group and that may take a little bit…. To me, once we had all the injuries and dropped games, to me it’s all about just being right for the playoffs and being healthy and having good rhythm….. March is brutal when you look at our schedule. It is brutal. But it is what it is.” Take the Rockets. |
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03-01-17 | Michigan State v. Illinois -2 | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#560) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner supporting the Illini in their blowout win at Nebraska on Sunday. Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up for that game, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “Illini head coach Jim Groce has been pounding a ‘Climb the Ladder’ mantra as Illinois has bounced back from a terrible start to the Big 10 campaign, a ‘one game at a time’ mentality to get back into ‘Bubble’ consideration. “We can’t control a month from now. We can’t rewind and change the result of a game. We can’t do that. What we can do is learn from every circumstance and work to get better every day. That’s really all we’re talking about right now.” And the team has bought into that mentality, winning three straight – all as underdogs -- and four of their last five. Point guard Te’Jon Lucas: “If we hear somebody talking about, we tell them we’ve got to focus on the next game. That’s what dictates the future. Of course you’ve got the future and know about the tournament and stuff, but you’ve got to win the next game to get there. You’ve got to focus on winning games and playing to the best of our ability.” More Groce: “We've continued to find a formula that would give us a chance to win basketball games and compete, and it has here for a couple weeks. It's not automatic. You have to choose mentally and physically to continue to play the way we've played. Hopefully the success here recently will convince them more mentally and physically to continue to play the way we have." Make no mistake about it. While the Spartans full season defensive numbers are superior to Illinois, the Illini defense is playing at a VERY high level right now. Over the last six games, the Illini have held opponents under 40% shooting. Michigan State, on the road, for the season? How about 47% shooting allowed! The Spartans have only two road wins all season, one of which came by a single point in overtime, the other at struggling Nebraska; not a team that has put it together away from home at any point this year. They’ve lost by 17 and 29 in their last two road games, both non-competitive losses, and I’m not expecting a major turnaround tonight against the streaking, undervalued Illini. Take Illinois. |
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03-01-17 | Mavs +6.5 v. Hawks | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#507) Mike Budenholzer’s track record in games like this one is not very good, nor have the Hawks been covering spreads as short favorites. In fact, Atlanta is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 tries as single digit home chalk, repeatedly failing in this role. My clients and I cashed an easy winner against the Hawks as home favorites against Miami last week in an 18 point loss. And there’s ample reason to think that this chemistry challenged squad is poised to struggle as home chalk again tonight! Since their last winning streak ended in the second week of January, the Hawks have been downright awful off a single victory, unable to carry any momentum forward. They’re just 3-8 SU in their last eleven tries, including four SU losses as home favorites. And the quotes coming out of Atlanta’s locker room are dicey at best. There’s an awkward disconnect between management and point guard Dennis Schroeder, who was suspended for a game last week. Dwight Howard, too, seems to be having issues with staff and teammates Meanwhile, Dallas is most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ team right now, surging towards the #8 seed in the West. The addition of talented big man Nerlens Noel from Philly truly energized this squad following the All Star Break; with Dallas beating up on Orlando and Miami in their two games since the break; both wire-2-wire winners. Yogi Ferrell has provided a major spark as the point guard position as well -- I don’t expect this team to miss Deron Williams one iota. Live dog here! Take the Mavericks. |
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02-28-17 | Fresno State +5 v. Boise State | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Fresno St (#753) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Fresno State last week in their outright upset win as eight point underdogs at San Diego State. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up. The numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities “Fresno won nine straight games down the stretch last year (8-1 ATS) capturing the Mountain West Tournament title at the end of that streak; a streak that began in mid-February, as Rodney Terry’s team played their best basketball at this stage of the campaign. And, fresh off back-2-back-2-back wins and covers, the Bulldogs appear to be peaking at the right time again this year. “Coach Terry, talking about their success running their halfcourt offense in a win over New Mexico last week: “It definitely gives you some confidence to be able to do that… we’re just getting to a point right now where we’re able to play through some guys, and when you’re able to get older and get some experience, you’re able to do that and control that a lot more, say, ‘Hey, this is what we want on this possession and let’s execute right now.’ ” “Senior forward Paul Watson: “Each possession, you have to value the ball. That’s something we haven’t done as well as we did last year, but it’s definitely something we’re working on. You have to get a shot up every possession. You can’t afford to turn it over. You have to get a good look and give yourself a chance.” While Fresno offers real ‘bet-on’ potential right now, Boise has most assuredly been an overvalued commodity in recent weeks. The Broncos are on an 0-6 ATS slide, burning their backers repeatedly. In recent tries as home chalk, Boise couldn’t pull away from Utah State or Air Force or Wyoming or San Jose St. And ‘Senior Night’ in Boise isn’t a difference maker for a team with only three seniors, none of whom average more than nine points per game. Ride the hot, fade the cold. Take Fresno St |
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02-28-17 | Warriors v. Wizards +6.5 | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#702) My clients and I cashed a winning wager against Golden State last night. The Warriors never led by the 14 point margin they were being asked by the betting markets to win by; unable to pull away from feisty Philadelphia. That matters tonight, especially when we consider this Steve Kerr quote about Golden State’s frenzied East Coast road swing: “Here you go, Golden State, here’s your marquee game against the Spurs on a Saturday night on ABC and it’ll be your eighth game in 12 days with 10,000 miles. Like, it’s insane. So I’ve gotta be very, very careful about our players’ welfare and make sure they’re fresh and not too fatigued. Because we know that can lead to injury.” Instead of emptying his bench last night, keeping the Warriors veteran legs fresh, Coach Kerr was forced to play his starters for extended minutes. Draymond Green, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson all played 35+ minutes, with Kevin Durant just short of that number. Given the mediocrity of the Warriors bench play of late, and their 1-5 ATS mark on the second night of road back-2-backs this year, I can understand Kerr’s concerns. And with two more sets of back-2-backs in a ten game stretch with court changes for each contest, keeping his team fresh is FAR more important than earning a victory this evening – they’re going to be the #1 overall seed in the playoffs, win or lose this evening. Washington went into the All Star Break on a 15-2 SU roll, and both losses came in games where the Wizards had the lead with one second left. They came out of the break sluggish, with a loss at Philly. Then they got out-physical-ed in a bad home loss to Utah on Sunday. This is a ‘circle the wagons’ spot for a team that has done little but win games and cover pointspreads for the better part of the last two months. It’s surely worth noting that prior to the loss to the Jazz, Washington hadn’t lost by more than six points at home since December 6th against Orlando, a lifetime ago for this team. I’ not expecting Washington to suddenly start getting crushed repeatedly in what has been a VERY strong home court for months! Take the Wizards. |
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02-27-17 | Oklahoma +14.5 v. Kansas | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma (#529) It’s senior night in Lawrence, which means one thing: the betting markets are going to inflate the home court edge for Kansas this evening. That leaves a Kansas team that has truly been a miserable favorite all year in a pointspread range they are not likely to cover; an over-valued commodity this evening. The results don’t lie. Kansas is a 25% ATS proposition at home this year, cashing only three winning bets on this floor all season! They’re 3-8 ATS when laying -12 or higher, not a team that builds and maintains big margins very easily. It’s not like the Jayhawks have dominated this series either. Their last win against Oklahoma by enough of a margin to cover tonight’s pointspread came back in 2012; Lon Kruger’s first season on the job And while the market’s are knee-jerking towards the Jayhawks with ‘senior night for Frank Mason and company on their minds, it’s worth noting several key factors here. First, Kansas is adjusting their starting lineup to reflect senior night. Tyler Self, the coach’s son with 19 minutes of playing time all year, will get the start tonight. Secondly, and just as importantly, Bill Self has one goal tonight – win the game, and let Frank Mason and Landon Lucas get the standing ovations coming off the court that they deserve. The end game here in the final few minutes is far more about standing ovations than maintaining big margins. There’s ample respect between Lon Kruger and Bill Self, and this is no ‘run up the score’ spot. Frankly, Oklahoma might well be able to give them a competitive game throughout, playing their best basketball of the year right now. The Sooners have been great in this role all year, a perfect 5-0 ATS as double digit underdogs. They’ve covered the spread in four straight games, including tight, competitive contests on the road at Baylor (six point loss) and at Oklahoma State (four point loss). A similar margin tonight would be no surprise for this bettor! Take Oklahoma. |
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02-27-17 | Heat -1 v. Mavs | 89-96 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#511) My clients and I have cashed a handful of bets supporting the Miami Heat of late. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Miami write-up: “The betting markets have had a legitimately tough time pricing the Miami Heat correctly since the calendar turned to 2017. The Heat spent the first two months of the season as injury riddled bottom feeders, ranked among the bottom five teams in the NBA in my power ratings (and most others). “But instead of tanking, Miami got hot and stayed hot, putting together a 14-2 SU and ATS run in the month before the All Star Break. These type of results give oddsmakers fits. Should Miami be priced as a lottery team? A heavyweight? A fringe playoff contender? The markets don’t seem to know how high they should adjust their power rating for Miami.” The Heat have looked even better now than they did before heading into the break, notching back-2-back blowouts over the Pacers and Hawks, both playoff caliber teams. Miami just got back both Josh Richardson and Okaro White, giving Erik Spoelstra (my CLEAR choice for NBA Coach of the Year) a deeper rotation to work with. Led by Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic, this team should be priced like an elite squad, not a mediocre one. To put this pointspread in perspective, the Mavs were TWO point home dogs against struggling New Orleans on Saturday. My power ratings have the Heat priced five points higher than New Orleans as of today, yet the Heat are only one point chalk in Dallas as I write this on Monday morning. Dallas will be better with Nerlens Noel patrolling the low post, but they’re still a very mediocre team dealing with a change at point guard (former starter Deron Williams has been cut). It’s not like the Mavs have a dominant home court edge: they’re 15-14 SU on this floor this year. Expect that record to drop to .500 at the conclusion of tonight’s game! Take the Heat. |
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02-27-17 | Warriors v. 76ers +14 | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#506) All the Sixers do is cover pointspreads, the single best ATS team in the NBA this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS as favorites. In their other 55 games, they’re 36-19 ATS, cashing at a 65% clip for the entire season; a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting markets. That hasn’t changed in recent weeks, despite Philly attracting some media attention because they’ve finally stopped losing every game in SU fashion, like they did in each of the last three seasons. And when you talk about undervalued home courts, Philly stands out like a sore thumb. A home court that was essentially worthless for the past three years is producing dividends now. The results don’t lie. Waaaaaaay under the radar, the 76ers are now 9-2 SU, 11-0 ATS in their home games since the calendar turned to 2017; the only losses coming in spread covering fashion by five against Houston and by eight against San Antonio. Philly has only lost four home games by double digit margins all year, three of which came in the first month of the season, when they were still awful. This is a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word. The Warriors don’t take Philadelphia very seriously – they’ve got bigger fish to fry. The Warriors won by 12 at home as 21.5 point favorites in the most recent meeting between the two teams. The Warriors last two trips to Philly have been tight, competitive games, with Golden State winning by three and five points as 16.5 and 15.5 point favorites. I’m not expecting the Warriors ‘A’ game tonight, especially with a much tougher test at Washington on tap for the second night of back-2-backs tomorrow. And this Steve Kerr quote is worth noting as the Warriors head east for this road trip: “Here you go, Golden State, here’s your marquee game against the Spurs on a Saturday night on ABC and it’ll be your eighth game in 12 days with 10,000 miles. Like, it’s insane. So I’ve gotta be very, very careful about our players’ welfare and make sure they’re fresh and not too fatigued. Because we know that can lead to injury.” Expect his concerns about freshness to be a different maker ATS tonight. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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02-26-17 | Illinois +4 v. Nebraska | 73-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#845) Nebraska can’t be laying points to anyone expect true bottom feeders right now, while the Illini are on an upward surge, finally breaking through on the road. Put those two factors together and the Huskers are an easy fade as favorites tonight in a game they’ll be hard pressed to win, let alone winning by any sort of margin! Illini head coach Jim Groce has been pounding a ‘Climb the Ladder’ mantra as Illinois has bounced back from a terrible start to the Big 10 campaign, a ‘one game at a time’ mentality to get back into ‘Bubble’ consideration. “We can’t control a month from now. We can’t rewind and change the result of a game. We can’t do that. What we can do is learn from every circumstance and work to get better every day. That’s really all we’re talking about right now.” And the team has bought into that mentality, winning three of their last four including their first two quality road wins of the season, at Northwestern and Iowa – two teams that are much better than Nebraska right now. Point guard Te’Jon Lucas: “If we hear somebody talking about, we tell them we’ve got to focus on the next game. That’s what dictates the future. Of course you’ve got the future and know about the tournament and stuff, but you’ve got to win the next game to get there. You’ve got to focus on winning games and playing to the best of our ability.” While the young Illini have finally learned how to win in SU fashion on the highway, the Huskers are falling apart. Head coach Tim Miles is clearly on the hot seat for a team that is 3-9 SU in their last dozen games. It’s surely worth noting that two of the three wins came by 3 points and 1 point, not enough to cover the -4 they’re being asked to lay today. And this is not a particularly strong homecourt these days either – they’ve lost in Lincoln to Ohio State, Michigan State, Northwestern and Wisconsin in Big 10 play. ‘Live dog’ here! Take Illinois. |
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02-26-17 | Pelicans v. Thunder -6.5 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma City (#814) New Orleans may end up being a force to be reckoned with in a month or two. But tonight’s game against Oklahoma City is fraught with problems, leaving Alvin Gentry’s squad as a ‘bet-against’ squad as they try to work DeMarcus Cousins into the flow. Cousins quote speaks volumes. “I think it's a great opportunity. I think we both can learn from one another. Our games compliment one another. Being together, I think, is going to make our jobs a lot easier. I'm excited for the opportunity. I think we can wreak havoc on this league. Will it happen overnight? Probably not. But the potential is scary.” Note his words: ‘Will it happen overnight? Probably not!” Alvin Gentry concurs: "It's just a matter of putting it all together and, obviously, there's a chemistry thing. But I don't see that as a problem at all I think their (Davis' and Cousins') games are very complementary and it gives us an opportunity. Also, one of the areas we've struggled in is the rebounding part of it, especially giving up offensive rebounds. I think….we can put a really big team out there on the floor.” In the two games with Boogie and Brow on the court, New Orleans has been outrebounded ( a net -1), by two teams that are ranked #12 and #30 in rebounding differential this year – the ‘dominating the glass’ portion of the equation isn’t working yet. Neither is the ‘ball handling’ piece of the equation – the Pelicans have 20+ turnovers in their last two games, exactly what we would expect from a team that just went through a complete makeover in the past week. Alvin Gentry: “ We are not going to be able to go anywhere until we solve the turnover thing. The turnovers were bad decisions. It doesn't have anything to do with us not coming together. A lot of them were unforced." OKC ranks #3 in the NBA in turnover differential, and they rank #2 in the NBA in rebounding differential – strong in the areas where New Orleans is weak right now. The return of Enes Kanter following an extended injury absence was a huge boost for their frontcourt in their win over the Lakers in the first game back from the All Star Break. Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson just got their first practice in with the team, a notch or two more acclimated then they were. Facing a struggling New Orleans team on the second night of back-2-backs, expect OKC to run this team out of the gym! Take the Thunder. |
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02-25-17 | 76ers +5.5 v. Knicks | 109-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#505) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: The Knicks have no business as -5.5 point favorites. The Knicks have a grand total of ONE pointspread cover all year when laying more than 4.5 points, and that came back on November 9th against the worst team in the league (Brooklyn). The last time the Knicks won a game by more than five points at home came back on January 12th against the Bulls; when Chicago was in complete disarray. They are 2-7 SU at home since that win, losing SU to the likes of Phoenix, Denver and the LA Lakers during that span. The Knicks lost to Philly in SU fashion as favorites in the first meeting between these two teams this year. They went into the All Star Break with a double digit loss and came out with another double digit loss. And there’s certainly not much positive chemistry floating around this locker room right now. Derrick Rose, following their loss to open the second half: "It's a different offense. As a point guard, you're always in the corner and just got to play off reads and play that way. It's new for everybody here. I get all my points off random baskets. Unless you see it go to the post, all the other stuff is just random basketball." Carmelo Anthony: “I think they were kind of planning on the trade deadline whether they were trying to make moves. I think that was one plan. Now they've got to get back to the drawing board and come up with another plan about the future of this team." Plain and simple – these are not the kinds of quotes I’m looking for out of my veteran leaders on a struggling team. All the Sixers do is cover pointspreads, the single best ATS team in the NBA this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS as favorites and just 1-3 ATS as huge underdogs of +14 or higher. In every other game, they’re 34-16 ATS, cashing at a 68% clip for the entire season in pointspread ranges like this one. Throw in a 4-0 ATS mark in their last four tries on the second night of back-2-backs and the case for the Sixers is perfectly clear. Take the 76ers. |
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02-25-17 | Purdue v. Michigan OVER 140 | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Michigan – Purdue OVER (#629-630) The Wolverines are a dead nuts Over team when stepping up in class, against strong offensive foes. Why? Because Michigan’s offense is pretty darn efficient, but their defense is spotty at best! When the Wolverines faced the Boilermakers earlier this season, Purdue’s inside/outside balance gave the Wolverines fits as Purdue shot 53% from the floor in a 17 point win. The UCLA game stands out as well; another game against a strong offensive foe in which the Wolverines defense was hopeless, right from the opening tip; a game where the Bruins scored 102 points, flying Over the total by 40. The stats show it very clearly. The Wolverines rank #12 out of 14 Big 10 teams in defensive efficiency. They rank #327 in the country defending the three point line. They don’t force many turnovers either, leading to consistently poor defensive showings against the elite offensive teams. Purdue ranks among the Top 20 teams in the country in offensive efficiency, and I expect Purdue to approach or exceed their point total from the first meeting. Michigan struggled offensively at Purdue: only seven made free throws, less than 38% shooting overall and just 24% shooting from three point range. But the Wolverines still had a strong assist-to-turnover ratio in that game, and the Wolverines offense is a completely different animal in Ann Arbor, where they have scored 76 points per game on 49% shooting for the full season. They’ve hung 90 on Indiana and 86 on Michigan State in recent games at Crisler Arena; primed for another offensive outburst here. Take the OVER. |
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02-25-17 | Baylor v. Iowa State -2 | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#582) My clients and I have cashed three winning bets supporting Iowa State here in February, and there’s little reason to think that the betting markets have caught up with the streaking Cyclones! Here are some recent quotes, telling the story of Iowa State’s recent surge: 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six ballgames, the lone loss coming on the road in Austin by a single bucket. Head coach Steve Prohm: “I think we have tough kids, that helps. You stay focused on the present, then you have a chance to continue to get better.” Senior guard Naz Mitrou-Long: “It definitely feels awesome to be playing our best basketball of the season (down the stretch)….We just want to go 1-0. That’s been our motto the whole year. Win the day. It’s an awesome position to be in, but we’re not done.” Point guard Monte Morris: “We’re still waiting for that night when everybody is on fire. I feel like it’s coming soon. It’s the best time to play basketball, going into March. I’m glad we’re peaking right now as opposed to early December.” And the Cyclones will have particular focus for this game, facing a Baylor team that has beaten them five straight times since the start of the 2014-2015 season. All five of those Bears victories came by nine points or less – competitive games – including a one point loss, a two point loss and an OT loss for the Cyclones. At home, this veteran, senior laden squad is primed for some payback! Baylor has been a consistent moneyloser, just 5-10 ATS since their 13-0 start earned them a #1 overall ranking and left them completely overvalued to the talent level on hand. Baylor’s only SU wins in February have come against Big 12 bottom feeders: Oklahoma & TCU, with the lone exception of a 54% shooting effort in a three point win at Oklahoma State. I’m not expecting the Bears to approach 54% shooting this afternoon…. Take Iowa State. |
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02-24-17 | Heat +4 v. Hawks | 108-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#847) The betting markets have had a legitimately tough time pricing the Miami Heat correctly since the calendar turned to 2017. The Heat spent the first two months of the season as injury riddled bottom feeders, ranked among the bottom five teams in the NBA in my power ratings (and most others). But instead of tanking, Miami got hot and stayed hot, putting together a 14-2 SU and ATS run in the month before the All Star Break. These type of results give oddsmakers fits. Should Miami be priced as a lottery team? A heavyweight? A fringe playoff contender? The markets don’t seem to know how high they should adjust their power rating for Miami. The Heat have legit potential to be better today than they were before heading into the break. Miami is expected to get back both Josh Richardson and Okaro White, giving Erik Spoelstra (my CLEAR choice for NBA Coach of the Year) a deeper rotation to work with. Led by Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic, the Heat blew out the Hawks 116-93 when they met earlier this month. And I’m not convinced that the Hawks are going to perform 27 points better this time around! Atlanta came out of the All Star Break flat last year, losing SU as -10 home favorites. The year before, Atlanta came out of the break and lost by 25 at home, as favorites. Mike Budenholzer’s track record in games like this one is not very good, nor have the Hawks been covering spreads as short favorites, just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 tries as single digit home chalk. Live dog here – be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline for this one! Take the Heat. |
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02-24-17 | Lakers +10.5 v. Thunder | 93-110 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take the LA Lakers (#851) Expect the Lakers to show up in a big way tonight! LA was playing pretty good basketball for a few weeks prior to the All Star Break, riding an 8-2 ATS run, including outright upset wins against the Pacers, Knicks, Nuggets and Bucks. But LA lost a one point heartbreaker to Sacramento, then were complete no-shows on the second night of back-2-backs in Phoenix just prior to the break. First, the Phoenix game was an aberration. LA had one other clear ‘no-show’ game in 2017, losing at Dallas 122-73 in late January. They really stepped it up in their next game, nearly pulling the outright upset in Portland, the start of a 5-0 run. Luke Walton was not amused following that no-show in Dallas and coaxed a strong effort out of his squad next time out. Here’s Walton’s quote following the loss at Phoenix prior to the break: “We're going to lose games and I'm OK with that and I know that. But when we give in like that and don't play with a certain competitive level, that's not right for anybody that's involved.” Then there’s the Magic Johnson factor. Owner Jeanie Buss cleaned house in the front office over the break, bringing in Magic Johnson as team president and former player agent Rob Pelinka as GM. I expect this to have at least a short term impact as he looks to reshape the roster. Magic was at practice yesterday- guys know he’s around. LA’s not going to ‘lay down’ here – they’re coming to play. And when the Lakers come to play, they can hang with OKC. In fact, the Lakers beat the Thunder in SU fashion the last time these two teams met, back in November. OKC as a double digit favorite this year? How about zero pointspread covers in that role! The Thunder just remade their roster following a big trade deadline deal in Chicago – we can expect some on court chemistry issues if Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott suit up. If they don’t, they’ll be playing short-handed; not what I’m looking for out of my double digit favorite. Expect a competitive contest. Take the Lakers. |
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02-23-17 | Hornets +4.5 v. Pistons | 108-114 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Charlotte (#503) Charlotte endured a truly brutal stretch of games prior to the All Star Break, suffering through a nasty 1-11 skid. Six of those losses came by five points or less, competitive contests where the Hornets just couldn’t hit a key shot or get a key stop during crunch time of the fourth quarter. Head coach Steve Clifford hasn’t thrown in the towel following that skid. Charlotte trails Detroit by only 2.5 games for the #8 seed in the East. Clifford: “We have a good group. The work (ethic) has not been a problem. We've just been inconsistent. Frankly, we just haven't made the progress that I thought we would by now. But we have time. Twenty-six games, that's a third of the season. Our guys, I don't think they'll go away. They want to win." Let’s not forget that a .500 level Hornets team last year went 21-8 following the break. The Pistons put all of their key players on the trading block prior to the deadline, including Andre Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson, three key starters. That’s never a good thing for locker room chemistry. And Stan Van Gundy has not been a maestro at guiding Detroit to ATS success with extra time to prepare. Detroit lost by double digits as two point dogs against the Wizards in their first game after the break last year. This isn’t new or different for Detroit under Van Gundy. With three days or more of rest between games, the Pistons are 0-fer the 2016-17 season SU and ATS, a role they struggled repeatedly in last year as well. In the two meetings between these two teams since the beginning of December, Charlotte won by 10 and lost by 1, covering the spread both times. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the Hornets. |
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02-22-17 | Fresno State +8.5 v. San Diego State | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Fresno State (#755) All four meetings between these two schools over the past two years have been EXTREMELY tight. San Diego State won by 3 and by 6 in overtime. Fresno State won by 5 and by 1. And there’s little reason to think that tonight’s game will be dramatically different from those recent meetings. It’s late February. San Diego State has a grand total of THREE pointspread covers at home for the entire season! Attendance is down at Viejas Arena – after 80 consecutive regular season sellouts, the Aztecs haven’t filled the building in their last four tries; not even against rival UNLV this past weekend. Even the students didn’t collect their full allotment of tickets for the game against the Rebels. One of the toughest homecourts in college basketball in recent seasons just isn’t so tough in 2017. San Diego State also has a real problem with blowing leads. They’ve done it in each of their last two games, letting double digit leads in the second half shrink into ‘stress level’ territory; not atypical for a team that just doesn’t have a go-to’ scorer to stem opposing runs. No surprise, then, that the Aztecs are just 2-7 ATS when laying -7.5 or higher this year, a bad pointspread role for Steve Fisher’s squad. Fresno won nine straight games down the stretch last year (8-1 ATS) capturing the Mountain West Tournament title at the end of that streak; a streak that began in mid-February, as Rodney Terry’s team played their best basketball at this stage of the campaign. And, fresh off back-2-back wins, the Bulldogs appear to be peaking at the right time again this year. Coach Terry, talking about their success running their halfcourt offense in a win over New Mexico this past weekend: “It definitely gives you some confidence to be able to do that… we’re just getting to a point right now where we’re able to play through some guys, and when you’re able to get older and get some experience, you’re able to do that and control that a lot more, say, ‘Hey, this is what we want on this possession and let’s execute right now.’ ” Senior forward Paul Watson: “Each possession, you have to value the ball. That’s something we haven’t done as well as we did last year, but it’s definitely something we’re working on. You have to get a shot up every possession. You can’t afford to turn it over. You have to get a good look and give yourself a chance.” Expect the Bulldogs to ‘give themselves a chance’ to win this one in SU fashion! Take Fresno. |
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02-22-17 | Oklahoma State +4 v. Kansas State | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma State (#735) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Kansas State as favorites in their last home game, a straight up loss to Iowa State. And there’s ample reason to think that Bruce Weber’s squad will be hard pressed to notch the SU win tonight, let alone pulling away to win this game by margin. The Wildcats are in a world of hurt right now, losers of five of their last seven. The two victories came by a combined five points, neither by enough of a margin to cover this pointspread. As a ‘bubble’ team, the betting markets are factoring ‘must win’ into this equation, even though the Wildcats have lost four of their last five at home while failing repeatedly in other recent ‘must win’ spots. Let’s not forget about the struggles for Bruce Weber’s squad laying points, just 2-6 ATS as single digit favorites this season. Bruce Weber’s players have a ‘we’re not playing well at home’ mentality right now, never a good thing for any home favorite. Guard Wesley Iwundu: “I think we carry a different mentality when we play on the road than we do at home. I think we’re too comfortable at home and it shows in the beginning of games.” Guard Barry Brown: “Maybe it’s just the fact that we don’t feel like people expect us to win on the road so we have a little more fire under us. We shouldn’t have as many losses as we do at home, especially in a row. It’s really bad right now.” Oklahoma State’s loss to Kansas State at home was their low point of the season, as they fell to 0-6 in Big 12 play. It marked a turning point for first year head coach Brad Underwood. Since that defeat, the Cowboys are 8-1 SU, the lone loss coming by only three points to Baylor. That includes SU and ATS road wins at Texas Tech, Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU during that span! Underwood, talking about the turnaround: “It’s a multitude of things. Implementing a new style or a new system was part of it. It’s a culture change. It was up to me as we got into league play, I had to figure a few things out in terms of what was working and what was not working and what we could do. We made some subtle changes defensively and those have helped. We’ve been a good offensive team throughout so we’ve been able to tweak some things there and continue to be efficient on that end of the court…. The one thing I’m really proud of is it speaks volumes to the character in our locker room. The changes helped, but it’s really a tribute to the players and the locker room and their accountability to each other has been instrumental.” Ride the hot, fade the cold! Take Oklahoma State. |
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02-22-17 | Duke -3 v. Syracuse | 75-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#723) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Syracuse at home last week against Louisville. We cashed another winning bet against the Orange when they faced Georgia Tech on the road this past Saturday. And there’s no reason to think that Jim Boeheim’s squad is suddenly about to turn things around as they face off against mighty Duke at home tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last anti-Orange write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “Syracuse has no depth whatsoever. Tyler Lydon has played every minute of Syracuse's last ninegames, including all 45 minutes of both overtime games the Orange have played during this span. Andrew White has also played every minute of every one of those games. John Gillon has averaged 40 minutes per game over the last six games for the Orange. I'm not convinced this team will have much spring in their step come crunch time here.” Syracuse has another problem besides depth for this matchup. Boeheim’s zone isn’t working against opposing three point shooters, in part because of those tired legs from key starters. In ACC play, the Orange have allowed opponents to hit better than 40% from beyond the arc. That’s an emerging defensive weakness that the sharp shooting Blue Devils, best in the ACC at draining three pointers (better than 40% in conference play) are primed to exploit. The Blue Devils won by eight points on their last visit to the Carrier Dome. They’ve been winning tough games in hostile environments all season, including SU road wins at Virginia, Notre Dame and Wake Forest, in their last three tries. And Duke’s ability to convert at the free throw line (83% in their last five games!) gives them a legitimate opportunity to extend this lead late, should we need it. Take Duke. |
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02-21-17 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Georgia Tech (#540) Georgia Tech has been mispriced since Day 1 this year, and they’re still mispriced here in late February, with the betting markets simply unwilling to regard the Yellow Jackets as a quality squad. It’s easy to understand why – Josh Pastner’s squad wasn’t supposed to be any good this year, ranked ahead of only 9-19 Boston College in the preseason projections. This team was a 3.5 point home underdog to Ohio U from the MAC back in November, a clear illustrator of how far off the markets have been. The Ramblin’ Wreck are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 lined games. They’ve’ pulled off outright upsets at home against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame already in ACC play. They haven’t lost a home game since January 7th against mighty Louisville. The Yellow Jackets defensive numbers on this floor have truly been impressive, holding foes to 36% shooting for the SEASON. And let’s not forget how easily they beat the Wolfpack in the first meeting, back when NC State still cared; covering the spread wire-to-wire in a double digit road victory. Yellow Jackets guard Justin Moore: “Coach (Josh Pastner) always tells us each game is big, but I think these next couple games, the home stretch, is very key for us.” Guard Corey Heyward: “I think it’ll be intense….. we get our energy from our fans, so it’ll be fun.” A month ago, NC State appeared to be in pretty good shape. They were at 14-7 overall following an impressive 84-82 road win at Duke behind a 32 point outburst from Dennis Smith. Then the bottom dropped out. It’s been seven consecutive losses for the Wolfpack. Head coach Mark Gottfried has already been fired, but he’s in the awkward position of being a lame duck for the final few weeks of the season. We saw how NC State responded to the news of Gottfried’s impending departure – a no show, at home against Notre Dame. Don’t be fooled by the final score of that game – the Wolfpack were down by 13 at halftime and by 23 midway through the second half before Notre Dame backed off and started burning clock, leading to ‘only’ a nine point home loss. It’s surely worth noting that NC State shot 50% from the floor in that game yet they still lost and failed to cover. It’s hard to project the Wolfpack approaching or exceeding that type of shooting percentage tonight. The betting markets are fixating on the bad ‘spot’ for Georgia Tech, in a short turnaround situation off the big Sunday Night win over Syracuse. They’re not fixating on the bad spot for NC State, a dead team, playing out the string, who has been blitzed by 30, 24 and 25 points in their last three road tilts, all non-competitive efforts. Even Gottfried has given up on the regular season: “I told them in the locker room. I saw a team in there that can do some damage in Brooklyn, in the tournament, if we just keep our spirit alive. So that’s where I am.” A team with a lame duck coach who is 0-7 SU and ATS in their last seven games and already thinking about the ACC Tournament is NOT a bet-on squad, yet that’s exactly what the markets did this morning. Georgia Tech opened at -5.5, was bet down to -4.5 overnight and then to -3 this morning. That added value turns a good play into a Big Ticket worthy wager; a game I expect the home favorite to win rather comfortably. Big Ticket: Take Georgia Tech. |
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02-20-17 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Texas Tech | 82-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#715) Already here in February, my clients and I have cashed winning bets supporting Iowa State as a road dog at Kansas (rewarded with the Cyclones outright upset victory as 10.5 point underdogs) and at Kansas State (rewarded with another outright upset victory just last week). This isn’t new or different for Steve Prohm’s squad. They’ve pulled outright road upsets at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and lost by only two points in tight defeats at Baylor and Texas; consistent moneymakers on the highway. It’s surely worth noting that Iowa State gave the #1 team in the country, undefeated Gonzaga, their toughest test of the season in neutral site non-conference tournament action, losing by a single bucket to the Zags at the Advocare Invitational over Thanksgiving. Catching +2.5 or higher this season, Iowa State is 6-1 ATS, the lone loss coming by less than a bucket at home against the mighty Jayhawks. Plain and simple – this is Iowa State’s best role, catching points away from home. Head coach Steve Prohm: “I think we have tough kids, that helps playing well on the road. We’re defending better on the road, that helps, too, and we’ve shot it well…. We’re trying to beat Texas Tech on Monday night, that’d be one win for us and that’s it. You do that and stay focused on the present, then you have a chance to continue to get better.” Senior guard Naz Mitrou-Long, following their home win over TCU on Saturday: “It definitely feels awesome to be playing our best basketball of the season (down the stretch). It was a collective group effort. Now we have to go to Lubbock and get a huge road win….We just want to go 1-0. That’s been our motto the whole year. Win the day. It’s an awesome position to be in, but we’re not done.” Point guard Monte Morris: “We’re still waiting for that night when everybody is on fire. I feel like it’s coming soon. It’s the best time to play basketball, going into March. I’m glad we’re peaking right now as opposed to early December.” Texas Tech is coming off a brutal scheduling cycle that leaves them short on both energy and confidence in this quick turnaround spot. The Red Raiders are coming off a crushing double OT loss at West Virginia on the heels of one point losses to Kansas and TCU the previous week; the type of late season defeats that can really deflate a team’s psyche in the dog days before conference tournaments start in March. And the short turnaround certainly won’t help Chris Beard’s squad tonight. Key rotation cogs Keenan Evans, Zack Smith and Niem Stevenson all were on the floor for more than 40 minutes in that double OT defeat on Saturday. Expect tired legs and a bruised psyche to be highly problematic for the Red Raiders down the stretch here! Take Iowa State |
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02-19-17 | Syracuse v. Georgia Tech +2.5 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Georgia Tech (#870) The latest Joe Lunardi projections have Syracuse among the last four teams in and Georgia Tech among the last four teams out. The Orange have an RPI just two spots lower than the Yellow Jackets. While there’s no such thing as a ‘Big Dance Elimination Game’ prior to the start of the tournament, the loser of this game will likely be sweating out Selection Sunday far more than the winner. The atmosphere at McCarnish Pavilion will be special on Sunday. The Yellow Jackets haven’t been to the Big Dance since 2010. There’s a rare sellout this evening; only the third sellout of the season, with fans planning a ‘whiteout’. Guard Justin Moore: “Coach (Josh Pastner) always tells us each game is big, but I think these next couple games, the home stretch, is very key for us.” Guard Corey Heyward: “I think it’ll be intense…..sellout (crowd) — we get our energy from our fans, so it’ll be fun.” It’s not like Syracuse has been going on the road and hammering teams all year. The Orange have a grand total of two road victories in eight tries. One came by a single point, the other came in overtime. Defensively, this team has consistently struggled executing Jim Boeheim’s matchup zone defense; allowing 51% shooting for the season on the highway. Syracuse has no depth whatsoever. Tyler Lydon has played every minute of Syracuse’s last seven games, including all 45 minutes of both overtime games the Orange have played during this span. Andrew White has also played every minute of every one of those games. John Gillon has averaged more than 40 minutes per game over the last six games for the Orange. I’m not convinced this team will have much spring in their step come crunch time here. Georgia Tech gave Syracuse fits last year (a three point spread covering loss at Syracuse), and the year before (a one point, spread covering home loss); a perfect 3-0 ATS against the Orange since they became conference rivals. The Yellow Jackets defensive numbers on this floor have truly been impressive, holding foes to 36% shooting for the SEASON. Josh Pastner’s squad has pulled off outright upsets at home against North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame already in ACC play. Another outright upset here would be no surprise to this bettor! Take Georgia Tech. |
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02-18-17 | USC +10 v. UCLA | 70-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Take USC (#657) USC beat UCLA in all three meetings last year, and none of them were particularly close. The Trojans beat the Bruins by 19 here at the Galen Center, by 14 at Pauley Pavilion and by 24 in the PAC-12 Tournament at the MGM Grand in Vegas. The first meeting between these two teams this year wasn’t much closer. USC led by double digits at halftime and rolled to victory as seven point underdogs. That’s four meetings over the last two years, all four of which were covered by USC by more than ten points. But the betting markets do what betting markets do; using long term power rating numbers to set pointspreads; hence the Trojans being installed as double digit underdogs again tonight. And, quite frankly, other than your standard ‘revenge’ motif, there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Bruins match up any better with the Trojans this time around compared to any recent meeting. Let’s not forget that UCLA shot 48% in the first meeting compared to 40% shooting from USC, yet the Bruins still lost by margin. It’s also worth noting that the Trojans didn’t have big man Bennie Boatwright for that game; averaging more than 15 points per game since his return from injury and coming off a three block effort against Oregon. UCLA has one fatal flaw when it comes to pointspreads in this range – the Bruins don’t play shutdown defense; unable to consistently get stops against solid offensive foes like the Trojans. Steve Alford’s squad has failed to cover 19 of their last 26 against PAC-12 competition, including non-covers as double digit favorites against Oregon State, Washington State, Stanford and Cal in recent weeks. Take USC. |
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02-18-17 | SMU -3 v. Houston | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Take SMU (#611) SMU is ranked #23 in the coaches poll, and they are only short road favorites at Houston today. Both the pointspread and the ranking show a clear disrespect for a team that is arguably the most undervalued commodity in the country right now! Sure, SMU was not clicking on all cylinders in November, with Tim Jankovich taking over for Hall of Fame head coach Larry Brown. They lost early season games to Boise, USC and Michigan; none of which were pretty. The markets knee-jerked (as they do), thinking ‘SMU is down this year’. The markets were wrong and ten weeks later, they STILL haven’t adjusted enough! SMU is 19-1 SU in their last 20 ballgames, the lone loss coming by a single bucket at 22-3 Cincinnati, another under-rated team. They’ve been a pointspread machine, cashing 13 winning bets in their last 16 lined contests, and they were -16 or higher in all three games that they didn’t cover. SMU annihilated Houston in the first meeting, an 85-64 blowout that was ugly for the Cougars from the opening tip. And yet they’re still only short road chalk here! Houston is hot: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last five games. But all five of those games came against the weak sisters of the AAC; all sub .500 squads in conference play. The Cougars have tried to step up in class three times in conference, against SMU, Cinci and Memphis. They lost all three of those games SU and ATS. If you’re looking for a ‘signature’ win from Kelvin Sampson’s team this year, you won’t find one. Houston can beat the weak, but they cannot hang tough with the strong. SMU isn’t just strong; they’re VERY strong and remain undervalued. And after getting upset on this floor last year, the Mustangs won’t take their in-state rivals lightly here! Take SMU. |
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02-18-17 | Michigan State v. Purdue -9.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Purdue (#572) There’s a class difference between these two squads that is not fully reflected in this pointspread, offering legitimate value on the Boilermakers side in this relatively cheap price range. But more than any other factor, this bet is about Purdue NOT being ranked among the Top 16 teams by the NCAA Selection Committee earlier in the week, a real motivator for a team with something to prove on Saturday in front of a national TV audience! There was nothing fraudulent about Purdue’s eleven point win in East Lansing last month. The Boilermakers were bigger and more physical in the paint, dominating the glass behind a huge effort from Caleb Swanigan ; an elite big man that Sparty just can’t match up with. Young Michigan State got rattled and fell apart – and that was at home, with ample crowd support – despite a huge 33 point effort from Miles Bridges. And it’s certainly not going to get any easier for Tom Izzo’s squad today! Michigan State has been burning money on the highway all year. They lost by 29 at Michigan in their last road tilt, on the heels of losses & non-covers at Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State (in Philly) in Big 10 action. Meanwhile, Purdue has been a serious moneymaker as home favorites (9-3 ATS), while going 11-2 ATS as bigger favorites of -7.5 or higher, simply dominating lesser competition. This year, right now, Michigan State can only be described as ‘lesser competition’. Take Purdue. |
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02-17-17 | Fairfield -1 v. Quinnipiac | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Fairfield (#871) The road team has won every meeting between these two schools dating back to 2014, including a two point Quinnipiac victory in the first meeting this year, less than two weeks ago. That’s the only loss the Stags have suffered in their last six contests overall; a stretch that included a 20 point blowout win in their lone road tilt. Fairfield has won away from home at Manhattan, Boston College, Rider, Wagner and Dartmouth; a veteran squad worthy of support when playing in hostile environments. The Bobcats win at Fairfield was as frustrating as it gets for the Stags. Fairfield led by 11 with seven minutes left before a 19-6 game ending run by Quinnipiac. Bobcats head coach Tom Moore, after the game: “I thought Fairfield was on fumes (exhausted) and..… I just think we were really locked in defensively down the stretch. They scored a few times, but our poise and our composure on offense. … (freshman guard) Peter Kiss took over the last four minutes of the game.” Fairfield head coach Sydney Johnson, following the loss: “I thought we had very poor shot selection, very poor. And then, instead of relying on our defense to close out the game, we were hoping to get it back offensively. I was very disappointed in our shot selection, but we have to learn from it….This is the same team that’s been brilliant defensively these last three games. We had some good moments tonight. This has always been an intense, rivalry game. There was great emotion, but we have to know that we didn’t do our best those last six, seven minutes ….They gutted out the win. We could have done better, to be honest. Credit to Quinnipiac but we have to play better defense and take better shots.” Quinnipiac had a listed attendance of 575 fans in their last home game, a 76-45 loss to St Peter’s; not exactly a particularly hostile home court. Siena beat them here by margin, as did Drexel, Monmouth, Columbia and Vermont. The Bobcats have notched only two wins in their last seven games, a team just biding their time until the MAAC tourney rolls around in two weeks. Facing a particularly focused Stags squad, I’m not expecting the Bobcats to notch the season sweep against a superior team. Take Fairfield. |
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02-16-17 | Arizona State +2 v. Washington | 83-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Arizona State (#753) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winning bets playing AGAINST the Washington Huskies in PAC-12 action. Tonight’s game against Arizona State provides another prime opportunity to fade Lorenzo Romar’s struggling squad. The Huskies are what they are: a one-and-done NBA training ground. They lost DeJounte Murray and Marquese Chriss to the NBA after their freshmen seasons last year, both unexpected departures. And this year’s phenom, Markelle Fultz is certainly worth the hype, with legit #1 overall pick potential. But Fultz is hurt; a huge absence – he’s the only player in the country averaging at least 20 points, six rebounds and six assists per game. Fultz has been back at practice this week, but it doesn’t look as if he’s going to suit up tonight. Head coach Lorenzo Romar: “Each day is different with it. If he continues to make progress we’re probably more optimistic than pessimistic. He’s been running around, shooting, ball-handling a little bit.” Fultz is officially a ‘gametime decision’ here, but the betting markets don’t expect him to play and even if he does, I’m not convinced he’ll be anywhere near 100%. The Huskies – losers of seven straight, and just 7-7 SU at home this year including losses as favorites against Yale, Nevada and Washington State, among others – are worth fading whether Fultz suits up here or not. Arizona State has been an undervalued commodity of late, 5-2 ATS in their last seven ballgames. They’ve been excellent road dogs in PAC-12 play, winning SU and ATS at Stanford and Oregon State while hanging tough in some very hostile environments – losing by only 1 at Oregon and by only 3 at USC, covering the spread by a combined 22 points in those games. Bobby Hurley’s squad is a deadly perimeter shooting team, bad news against the Huskies porous three point defense; allowing 40% from beyond the arc for the SEASON! The Sun Devils hit their free throws (something the Huskies consistently struggle with). Arizona State won on this floor two years ago, took the Huskies to OT here last year and beat Washington by 11 as -4 favorites in the first meeting this year. Wrong team favored…..Take Arizona State. |
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02-16-17 | Celtics v. Bulls OVER 213 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Chicago OVER (#703-704) The Bulls snapped a three game skid with an impressive win over Toronto on Tuesday. Head Coach Fred Hoiberg made it very clear after the game why they won – pushing the pace, turning turnovers into fast break buckets. Ask coach Fred Hoiberg for the key to the Bulls’ victory Tuesday against the Raptors, and he’ll quickly point to their pace of play. Hoiberg highlighted the 20 fast-break points that Chicago got against Toronto. “I think our team is at our best when we can go down and get a quick strike before the defense gets set. You look at the really good elite shooters, and they get a lot of shots in transition. Transition basketball simply provides a greater variety of scoring options.” Center Robin Lopez, talking about pushing the pace: “I think we’re worlds different. That makes everybody a threat on the floor to score.” Several of Chicago’s slower moving players are hurt, most notably Dwayne Wade, not expected to suit up this evening. The absence of backup forward Paul Zipser has led to some tweaking of the reserve units. Doug McDermott, Cristiano Felicio and Denzel Valentine were particularly effective pushing the pace against the Raptors, likely to see floor time together here, too. The Celtics aren’t shy about running up and down the floor, even on the second night of back-2-backs. And when Boston plays a decent or good team on the road, watch out for fireworks. The Celtics are 10-1-1 to the Over in their last dozen road games when facing an opponent with a winning home record. A Celtics team with 21 Over cashes in their last 29 games is worth riding Over here on the night before the All Star Break…. a night where defensive energy and execution are often optional. Take the Over. |
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02-15-17 | Mavs +5 v. Pistons | 91-98 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#505) The Pistons have been feasting on the weak. They rallied from 16 down in the fourth quarter to beat the slumping Raptors (4-11 SU L15) in their last victory. Prior to that, Detroit’s recent wins have come against the Lakers, 76ers, T-Wolves and Pelicans. Since Christmas, they’ve lost at home to the likes of Sacramento and Milwaukee, and failed to cover as favorites in one point wins against the Wizards and Hornets. Detroit slumped into the All Star Break last year, worn down by Stan Van Gundy’s relentless preaching. They lost their last three heading into the break, including the finale as five point home favorites against Denver; a double digit defeat. It was a similar story in 2015 – a blowout loss at home just prior to the break on the heels of a bad loss as a favorite in their home game prior. This is NOT a team to trust with vacation starting right after the final buzzer. This has not been a good series for the home team, with the road squad winning outright in each of the last six meetings between these squads. The Mavericks have won SU on every visit to the Palace of Auburn Hills dating back to 2012. Unlike Detroit, Dallas has a rock solid pre- All Star Break history under Rick Carlisle, and they’ve played their best basketball of the season in recent weeks. The results don’t lie. Dallas has won outright at Portland, San Antonio, Chicago and Phoenix in recent weeks; part of an under-the-radar 13-4 ATS run. They’ve coming off a loss to Boston; a game where point guard Deron Williams got ejected and was missed, while the Celtics played great. Dallas is 6-0 ATS off their last six losses, an emerging trend worth riding again here. Take the Mavericks. |
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02-15-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Philadelphia (#509) My clients and I have been making money with the 76ers for the better part of the last two months. Tonight’s game in Boston stands out as a prime opportunity to catch this undervalued squad in a particularly strong situational spot, worthy of Big Ticket status. Philly has given Boston trouble in both previous meetings this season. In December, the Celtics were -10, but never enjoyed any separation, beating the Sixers by just a single point. It was a similar story in January. Boston was laying -11 in a game they struggled to win by four, needing a big second half rally to do it. The 76ers covered the spread wire-2-wire in both contests. So what’s different about tonight’s game, Boston is in a worse spot! The Celtics are coming home off a successful road trip, winning at Portland, Utah and Dallas to close it out. They’ve got a TV game in Chicago against the Bulls tomorrow, before everybody bolts for the All Star Break. In between, in this major flat spot, they’ll face a team they’ve beaten in every single meeting since 2012. I am NOT expecting the Celtics ‘A’ game here, particularly bad news for a team that has gone 0-8 ATS when laying -8 or higher this year. Big home chalk off a great road trip is NOT the Celtics role! On the other hand, this IS Philly’s role. The Sixers are 0-3 ATS as favorites this year. They are 1-3 ATS as big underdogs of +14 or more, tough road games against elite teams. In Philly’s other 49 games, where they are not favored and not huge underdogs, the 76ers are 32-17 ATS. Yes, they’ve covered the spread nearly two thirds of the time in those games; a consistently undervalued commodity. The betting markets continue to obsess about Joel Embiid’s status (he’s out again tonight). Earlier in the season, the Sixers couldn’t win without Embiid. That was then, this is now. The Sixers just beat the Heat, Hornets and Magic without their center, winning each of those games as an underdog. Philly should have both Jahlil Okafor (probable) and Nerlens Noel to man the low post tonight. 2014 lottery pick Darko Saric is on fire right now, while point guard TJ McConnell is arguably the single most undervalued player in the league. Just like the first two meetings, we can expect another tight contest tonight. Big Ticket: Take the 76ers. |
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02-15-17 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Kansas State | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#549) My clients and I bet on Iowa State as a road dog at Kansas less than two weeks ago, rewarded with the Cyclones outright upset victory as 10.5 point underdogs. This isn’t new or different for Steve Prohm’s squad. They’ve pulled outright road upsets at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and lost by only two points in tight defeats at Baylor and Texas; consistent moneymakers on the highway. It’s surely worth noting that Iowa State gave the #1 team in the country, undefeated Gonzaga, their toughest test of the season in neutral site non-conference tournament action, losing by a single bucket to the Zags at the Advocare Invitational over Thanksgiving. Catching +3 or higher this season, Iowa State is 100% ATS, a perfect 5-0 in this role. Kansas State’s lone win in their last six tries against the Cyclones came by a single point; consistently struggling against their high octane foe. And the Wildcats are in a world of hurt right now, losers of five of their last six, the lone victory coming by a single bucket. As a ‘bubble’ team, the betting markets are factoring ‘must win’ into this equation, even though the Wildcats have lost three of their last four at home while failing repeatedly in other recent ‘must win’ spots. Let’s not forget about the struggles for Bruce Weber’s squad laying points, just 1-5 ATS as single digit favorites this season. Even if the Wildcats win this one – and that’s a big ‘if’ – I’m not expecting any sort of margin whatsoever. Take Iowa State. |
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02-14-17 | Boise State +2.5 v. New Mexico | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Boise State (#753) Boise is the best team in the Mountain West right now, standing alone in first place. And the Broncos have got a real chip on their collective shoulders as they travel to the Pit in Albuquerque tonight. Boise led by 15 on this floor late in the second half on their visit to the Pit last year before New Mexico closed out the game on a 19-2 run to win by a bucket. And the Lobos pulled off the upset at Taco Bell Arena in Boise last month behind a red hot shooting effort: 50% from the floor and from three point range; 21-22 from the line. But without the injured Tim Williams, who led the Lobos in scoring that night (he’s their second leading scorer overall), the Lobos offensive production has taken a real hit and their defense has declined as well. Attendance is down at the Pit again this year, and New Mexico has shown real vulnerability at home. They’ve lost to sub .500 squads like San Jose and UNLV on this floor in recent weeks; notching just two pointspread covers in ten tries on this floor this year. Meanwhile, the veteran Broncos have been taking care of business on the highway, winning SU and ATS at Utah State, UNLV, San Jose, Wyoming and Colorado State already in conference play. This is a team we can trust to hang tough in hostile environments. Boise State senior Nick Duncan: “It’s one of my favorite places to play. I believe my first start was there and I was pretty nervous, but it’s a great place to play and a great environment. There’s nothing better than going down there and getting a road win at The Pit. We’re just going to have to play team basketball and hopefully get that ‘W’…..We just have to take the same mentality we have the last six road games. … We have our goal of winning the Mountain West and we know we can do it.” I concur. Take Boise State. |
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02-13-17 | Warriors v. Nuggets +12 | 110-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#518) Even the mighty Warriors aren’t impervious to truly bad spots, like the one they’re in tonight. The Warriors are coming off a huge statement game national TV win in Kevin Durant’s return to Oklahoma City. That came on the heels of their statement game ‘double revenge’ win at Memphis. This is the final game of their road trip, and they’ve got another revenge spot on tap for their finale before the All Star Break, after losing at Sacramento earlier this month. Playing in altitude, against a team they beat by 24 on their last visit to the Pepsi Center, this is not a spot where we can expect maximum intensity for the double digit road favorite. Golden State doesn’t have many matchup problems, but their bevy of low post injuries leave them in a tough spot, matchup-wise, tonight. They won’t have center Zaza Pachulia or big man David West, both out with injuries. Expect veteran backup JaVale McGee to have his hands full defending emerging Denver big man Nikola Jokic, averaging 23 points 10 rebounds and 5 assists per game since the calendar turned to 2017, with the five highest scoring games of his career all coming in the last month. Power forward Darrel Arthur: "He's a tough guard. I don't know how anybody can guard him. He makes the offense 10 times better when he's out on the court. He makes everyone better -- and he's still getting better.” The Warriors have been burning money as double digit road chalk, just 2-7 ATS in their last nine tries in this role. The two ‘W’s came against the two worst teams in the league, Brooklyn and Orlando. Meanwhile the Nuggets have been consistent moneymakers on this floor of late; 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven tries at the Pepsi Center. Golden State shot 53% from the floor the last time these two teams met, back in January. Despite those impressive shooting numbers, the Nuggets covered the spread wire-2-wire in an eight point loss. A similar result tonight would be no surprise for this bettor…but its surely worth noting that the Warriors last two SU losses both came against sub .500 opposition. Take the Nuggets.
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02-13-17 | Louisville -3 v. Syracuse | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Louisville (#527) Fatigue matters at this stage of the college basketball season. Teams power ratings aren’t variating wildly by mid-February – the advanced metric numbers are what they are. Bettors aren’t going to find many games where the pointspread is far off from where the season long power ratings say they should be. The edges bettors can find at this time of the year in college hoops have a lot to do with the ‘freshness’ factor. And there’s a huge mismatch in that regard for tonight’s short turnaround game between Syracuse and Louisville, with both teams having played on Saturday. Syracuse has no depth whatsoever. Tyler Lydon has played every minute of Syracuse’s last six games, including all 45 minutes in the overtime win at NC State., Andrew White has also played every minute of every one of those games. John Gillon has averaged more than 39 minutes per game over the last five games for the Orange. Jim Boeheim’s squad looked totally gassed in the second half of their loss at Pitt on Saturday. A short turnaround against a team that will press for 40 minutes is a nightmare matchup for the Orange here. Louisville is in a MUCH better situation when it comes to fatigue for this short turnaround game. Point guard Quentin Snyder got back on the floor on Saturday against Miami following a four week absence, working the rust out. Mangok Mathiang and Deng Adel were both suspended vs. Virginia last Monday and came off the bench against Miami; both relatively fresh here. So, while the power rating number says this line is where it should be, from a situational standpoint the road favorite Cardinals have the clear edge. Take Louisville. |
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