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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 197 | 94-103 | Push | 0 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Memphis – Dallas OVER (#513-514) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner with the Mavs Over the total in their home debut against Atlanta last week. The game flew Over the total by 30 points, and it wasn’t just about good shooting – the tempo was there throughout. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “Expect a very different pace of play from the previously stodgy Dallas Mavericks this year. From Day 1, Dallas is looking to take advantage of the quickness and speed of rookie point guard Dennis Smith. “Owner Marc Cuban, talking about his newest potential star: “Dennis is fast. I mean he’s easily the fastest guy on the team and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the fastest end line to end line in the NBA…..watching him get a rebound and go coast-to-coast, fans are going to be fired up.” “Smith: "In this league, I've got to attack first and then make my reads from there. It's tough for defenders to stay in front of me. If I can beat my man and make the defense collapse, I'm smart enough to make the right read out of that." “Head coach Rick Carlisle: “We want to push it every single time, even if there's a score. The quicker you get it over half-court, the greater chance you have to make an early vertical attack on the basket.” In their last two games, the Mavs faced the Rockets and Warriors, two teams that no sane head coach would try to go uptempo against. Rick Carlisle didn’t, which leaves us with a total that’s too low here as the Mavs face off against a team they’ll have no hesitation speeding up against. Memphis, like Dallas, has been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA for years; not a team that’s likely to garner wiseguy support for Overs based on their pace ratings. But the Grizzlies haven’t been shy about filling up the hoop in early season play, hanging 98+ in all three contests. The injury to JaMychal Green is a difference maker for this squad when it comes to totals; a defensive stopper without an offensive game not on the floor. Green’s absence doesn’t affect the market, but without him, the ‘good offense, bad defense’ duo of Jarell Martin and Chandler Parsons get extra playing time. And it’s surely worth noting how hard the Grizz have been working to get easy buckets, really pushing the pace with their opportunities in transition. Memphis, too, is coming off games against the Rockets and Warriors in their last two outings, both of which stayed Under the total. Against Dallas, I’m not expecting that same level of defensive intensity, and the total is more than 15 points lower……Take the OVER. |
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10-24-17 | Jazz +4.5 v. Clippers | 84-102 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Take the Utah Jazz (#711) The concept here is simple. The Clippers didn’t face anybody playing ‘A’ level defense in the preseason, because nobody plays ‘A’ level defense in the preseason. In their first two regular season games, the Clippers faced the Suns and Lakers, arguably the two worst defensive teams in the NBA. Tonight, LA is laying points to a team that, without a shadow of a doubt, plays elite level defense on a nightly basis. I expect that to be a real problem for LA…… To make matters worse for the Clippers, they’re playing without their expected starting point guard, European sensation Milos Teodosic. And they’ve struggled to match up with the Jazz repeatedly, as clearly evidenced by their first round playoff loss to them last spring; a series where Utah won three times on LA’s home floor including Games 5 and 7. Look for the Jazz interior duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to have their hands full against Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors this evening, leaving the Clips without a legitimate matchup edge anywhere on the floor. That’s bad news for any favorite…..Take the Jazz |
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10-23-17 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Washington UNDER (#513-514) The Nuggets rank #29 in the NBA in possessions per game on offense, playing at a snail’s pace through their first two games, just 0.1 possessions/game higher than the #30 ranked pace squad, Sacramento. Washington has played faster, but they’re not a true uptempo team either, ranked outside the Top 10 in pace ratings. And yet this total is sitting above 222 as I write this on Monday morning, a good notch or two too high! The Nuggets haven’t reached 100 points yet, in large part, because their VERY young point guards are struggling. The Jamal Murray/Emmauel Mudiay combo – a combined 41 years of age – hasn’t been pretty to watch, averaging just 14 points and five assists per game. That duo isn’t likely to have an easy time against All Star John Wall tonight. But Denver ranks #7 in defensive efficiency, with the likes of Paul Millsap, Kenneth Faried and Mason Plumlee all bringing it on the defensive end of the court. Head coach Mike Malone is not a guy who will tolerate consistent defensive breakdowns. The Wizards cashed Over tickets in their first two games, hence this high total. But as we saw repeatedly last year, the Wiz are far more efficient offensively at home than they are on the highway. Head coach Scott Brooks called out his squad for some poor defensive habits after the game; always a good thing for Under bettors next time out. And new starter Kelly Oubre is having an immediate impact on the defensive end of the floor, a strong wing defender. We saw a 92-85 game between these two teams last year, and both teams shot over 41% from the floor – it wasn’t a brickfest. Tonight’s game might be! Take the Under. |
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10-20-17 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | 132-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Take the Phoenix Suns (#720) Pardon my language, but if you missed the Lakers play last night, you missed a real shit-show. Luke Walton didn’t have his team ready coming out of training camp, and it’s a very flawed team to begin with. Last year’s Lakers squad was the single worst defensive team of the DECADE on a points per 100 possessions basis, yet somehow they managed to get worse defensively in the offseason. Lonzo Ball has no chance of staying in front of the Suns; one of three defensively soft, very young ‘one and dones’ from college in the Lakers starting lineup. Let new starting center Brook Lopez tell you about how young LA really is right now: “It’s weird being one of the older guys on the team. That turnaround happened so quickly. A year or two ago I was playing with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce and all of a sudden the next few years I’m playing with 19-, 20-year-old kids. It just flopped so fast.” It wasn’t just bad defense that plagued the Lakers in their opener last night – their bad offense was on full display as well, most notably the 19 turnovers. With a rebuilt roster and a rookie point guard, playing on the second night of back-2-backs, on the road, I’m not expecting any sort of immediate turnaround from LA. The Suns were thoroughly humiliated on opening night, trailing by 25 at halftime on their way to a 48 point home loss to the Blazers. Head coach Earl Watson was “embarrassed”. His quote: “Portland came in here and basically kicked our butts as bad as they could.” Wing Devin Booker following the game: “It's going to be hard for me to sleep tonight.” The Lakers provide Phoenix with the ideal opponent to bounce back STRONG! Take Phoenix. |
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10-18-17 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 197.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Dallas – Atlanta OVER (#713-714) Expect a very different pace of play from the previously stodgy Dallas Mavericks this year. From Day 1, Dallas is looking to take advantage of the quickness and speed of rookie point guard Dennis Smith. Owner Marc Cuban, talking about his newest potential star: “Dennis is fast. I mean he’s easily the fastest guy on the team and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the fastest end line to end line in the NBA…..watching him get a rebound and go coast-to-coast, fans are going to be fired up.” Smith: "In this league, I've got to attack first and then make my reads from there. It's tough for defenders to stay in front of me. If I can beat my man and make the defense collapse, I'm smart enough to make the right read out of that." Head coach Rick Carlisle: “We want to push it every single time, even if there's a score. The quicker you get it over half-court, the greater chance you have to make an early vertical attack on the basket.” It takes time for the markets to adjust to teams that radically change their pace of play in the offseason. And with the Hawks defensive rotations in disarray throughout the preseason, we can expect an uptempo affair that flies Over the total with room to spare. Take the OVER. |
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10-18-17 | Hornets v. Pistons -3 | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#708) The Pistons open their new home court tonight with a roster that looks very similar to last year’s. Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris, Jon Leuer, Stanley Johnson and Ish Smith all return with a comfort level in Stan Van Gundy’s systems. The Pistons new pieces, most notably the ultra-intense Avery Bradley and his backup Langston Galloway, appear to fit right in to what Van Gundy is preaching. And it’s certainly worth noting that despite last year’s disappointing campaign, Van Gundy had them ready out of training camp – the Pistons won each of their first five home games by double digit margins. Charlotte, too, was a disappointment last year. Unlike Detroit, head coach Steve Clifford is dealing with a lot of moving parts right now. The Hornets remade their frontcourt in the offseason with the addition of Dwight Howard, a disappointment everywhere he’s been in recent seasons. Their top two wings are both out, with Nicholas Batum injured and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist away from the team dealing with a personal matter. Clifford’s quote is ‘bet-against’ all the way: "We're playing without two starters for this first stretch. We don't have the depth, nor are we as strong to start the games as we will be a month from now. That's always a factor. But it also gives us a chance for these other guys to grow here early in the year." I don’t want ‘growing’ teams at +3 on opening night against a home favorite primed to make a statement at Little Caesars Arena tonight. Take the Pistons. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -8.5 | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 58 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Golden State (#710) The Cavs and the Warriors have now played eleven games in the NBA Finals over the past two seasons. The straight up winner has gone 11-0 ATS in those games. Nine of the eleven games have been decided by 11 points or more. The optimal betting strategy, therefore, has been relatively simple: pick the SU winner and expect the ATS results to follow accordingly. I do not expect that to change in Game 5. Everything broke right for the Cavs in Game 4. They came out of the gate clicking on all cylinders, hanging 49 points on the Warriors in the first quarter. Kyrie Irving hit seven three pointers. Kevin Love hit six. JR Smith hit five. LeBron hit three trifectas as part of his triple double. Deron Williams, Iman Shumpert and Kyle Korver all hit three’s coming off the bench. If the Cavs shoot like that in Game 5, we’re not going to win this bet. But one game after connecting on 24 three pointers in an NBA Finals game, I expect the Cavs to be hard pressed to find a similar shooting touch, especially with an extra day between Games 4 & 5, allowing Steve Kerr to make the appropriate defensive adjustments. The Warriors still haven’t played a true ‘A’ level game here in the Finals. They missed layups in bunches in Game 1, committed 20 turnovers in Game 2 and trailed for most of the second half in Game 3. They were never even in Game 4. This is one of the elite teams in NBA history, in serious playoff revenge, with the memory of last year’s collapse still in the background. They’re coming off their single worst game of the playoffs, returning to their dominant homecourt; a floor where they have won six of seven playoff games by double digit margins. Steph Curry was a non-factor in Game 4, scoring only 13 points on four made shots. “Just one of those games. Not going to overreact to one. Obviously I can play better and want to play better and will play better." I concur. Expect the confetti to fall from the rafters as the Warriors win their second title – by margin – on Monday Night. Take the Warriors. |
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06-09-17 | Warriors -6 v. Cavs | 116-137 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Golden State (#707) The Cavs fought the good fight in Game 3, and led by six with three minutes remaining before Golden State closed out the game on an 11-0 run to get the win and cover. Kevin Durant’s pull up three pointer with 45 seconds left was a real ‘groin kick’ for a Cavs team that thought they had played well enough to win and get back into the series. Now it’s a 3-0 deficit, a deficit that no team in NBA history has ever overcome. And the Cavs know it. These are not ‘bet-on’ quotes from the Cavs by any stretch of the imagination. LeBron, following the Game 3 loss: ““Obviously, it’s physically and emotionally draining because I give everything to the game and want to put myself and my teammates in a position to be successful. I lay it all on the floor, and I did that tonight, gave everything that I had, both mentally and physically.” Here’s one from Kyrie Irving: “It hurts. Came came down to the stretch, and they made some big time plays. KD comes down, hits a big three, puts them up one. … I’m human, as well as my teammates, and to lay it all on the line like that, you want to come out on the winning side.” And one more from LeBron, talking about facing the NBA’s best team: “I think it's just part of my calling to just go against teams in the midst of a dynasty. This has been the best team in our league the last three years. They won a championship, and last year it was the greatest regular-season team we had played, probably one of the best postseason teams that everybody's ever seen as well, but we were just able to overcome that. And they're playing like one of the best teams once again." I think the Cavs are going to have a hard time mustering the same level of energy tonight that they’ve had in each of the last two games, given Wednesday’s gut punch and the short turnaround time between Games 3 & 4. I’m confident that at some point in this game, the Warriors are going to go on one of their patented big runs, and I’m not convinced in the slightest that the Cavs will find the mettle to dig deep and fight back in a hopeless situation. The Warriors still haven’t played a true ‘A’ level game here in the Finals. They missed layups in bunches in Game 1, committed 20 turnovers in Game 2 and trailed for most of the second half in Game 3. Steve Kerr: “(Game 3) wasn’t our smartest game that we have played all year…” But make no mistake about it, we’re witnessing history, one of the truly elite NBA teams of all time, in a closeout spot after blowing a 3-1 Finals lead to this same team last year. I’m not expecting the Warriors to step off the gas, even for a moment, just as they did in Game 4 blowout wins at Portland (128-103), at Utah (121-95) and at San Antonio (129-115) in the first three rounds of the postseason. A historical 16-0 playoff run means something to this team, and I expect them to close the series out with room to spare tonight. Take the Warriors. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 226.5 | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Golden State OVER (#705-706) I’m going to start this write-up with an extended excerpt from my Game 2 write-up supporting the Over, a ‘rocking chair’ winner on Sunday Night: “The pace was there for a high scoring affair in Game 1 of this series, but the offensive execution was not. Cavs not named ‘LeBron’ or ‘Kyrie’ combined to make a grand total of 11 shots in 48 minutes, as Cleveland shot under 35% from the floor for the game. Golden State took 106 shot attempts, but didn’t get to the free throw line or connect on a high percentage of three pointers while shooting only 42.5% for the game. The entire fourth quarter was, it the immortal words of legendary broadcaster Marv Albert, ‘garbage time’ where the pace slowed to a crawl as the Warriors lead ballooned, the end result being a game that stayed more than 20 points under the total. “Don’t expect ‘more of the same’ in Game 2. The Cavs certainly aren’t looking to slow things down, despite the Game 1 blowout loss. Kevin Love: “We naturally felt like we could have played better, taken the game to them a little bit more and also played with better pace. There were also times where we could have been smarter and made better decisions as far as fouling in the open court when they had an advantage.” “This isn’t two years ago, when Cleveland had no weapons following the Kyrie Irving injury, forcing a ‘slow it down’ pace in the Finals. It’s not last year either, when the Warriors superstars were all banged up and the Cavs were more comfortable playing grinders. This year’s Cleveland squad is predicated on offense, with LeBron and Kyrie penetrating to score or dish to open three point shooters over and over again.” Now, here’s the ‘pace’ quote from LeBron following their Game 2 loss at Golden State, a game in which the Warriors scored the most points in an NBA Finals Game since the showtime Lakers hung 141 o the Celtics in 1987. “That’s not our game. We don’t play slow-down basketball. We play at our pace, and we play our game. We’ve got to this point playing our way. We’ve won a lot of games playing the way we play. So, we’re not going to change.” Here’s the ‘pace’ quote from Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue, heading into Game 3. “I think taking good shots when we're playing with pace and not turning the basketball over, letting them get out in transition. So, that's our game. We're not going to change our game because of who we're playing. And I'm confident that we can play that way, and we did it last year. A lot of people said we couldn't. But that's our game. That's who we are. And we're not going to change just pause we're playing Golden State." Cleveland’s defense has been problematic all year, and that hasn’t changed against the offensively elite Warriors. They’ve allowed 118.98 points per 100 possessions in the first two games of this series. And the matchups that the Warriors have been able to exploit aren’t going to change. Lue has talked about going even smaller and quicker against the Warriors, talking about sitting center Tristan Thompson for extended stretches tonight: “It's not anything Tristan isn't doing. I just think that against this team you have to score the basketball." With JR Smith coming off two ‘no-show’ games, Deron Williams failing to make a shot in nine attempts in the finals thusfar and Channing Frye poised to get additional minutes, the Cavs role players are primed for a step up effort offensively here. And with the pace of this series averaging 11 more possessions than last year’s Finals matchup, tonight’s game has all the makings of another high scoring affair. Take the OVER. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Golden State OVER (#703-704) The pace was there for a high scoring affair in Game 1 of this series, but the offensive execution was not. Cavs not named ‘LeBron’ or ‘Kyrie’ combined to make a grand total of 11 shots in 48 minutes, as Cleveland shot under 35% from the floor for the game. Golden State took 106 shot attempts, but didn’t get to the free throw line or connect on a high percentage of three pointers while shooting only 42.5% for the game. The entire fourth quarter was, it the immortal words of legendary broadcaster Marv Albert, ‘garbage time’ where the pace slowed to a crawl as the Warriors lead ballooned, the end result being a game that stayed more than 20 points under the total. Don’t expect ‘more of the same’ in Game 2. We can expect this game to be more physical. 47 fouls got called in Game 1, leading to a combined 31 made free throws. This game should have ample point scoring opportunities with the shot clock off, as the refs try to keep things from getting too contentious! Klay Thompson: “I think the Cavs on Sunday will make a plan to not let [Durant] get so many easy buckets around the rim. I expect the Cavs to play a more physical game on Sunday to combat that.” Free throw attempts correlate STRONGLY with NBA totals – more attempts = higher scoring games. The Cavs certainly aren’t looking to slow things down, despite the Game 1 blowout loss. Kevin Love: “We naturally felt like we could have played better, taken the game to them a little bit more and also played with better pace. There were also times where we could have been smarter and made better decisions as far as fouling in the open court when they had an advantage.” This isn’t two years ago, when Cleveland had no weapons following the Kyrie Irving injury, forcing a ‘slow it down’ pace in the Finals. It’s not last year either, when the Warriors superstars were all banged up and the Cavs were more comfortable playing grinders. This year’s Cleveland squad is predicated on offense, with LeBron and Kyrie penetrating to score or dish to open three point shooters over and over again. The Cavs have averaged 118.3 points per 100 possessions here in the playoffs, #1 in the NBA. Golden State ranks #2 at 115.4 pp/100. This should be no surprise – both teams ranked in the Top 3 in offensive efficiency during the regular season as well. With the refs primed to blow some whistles, both teams looking to push the tempo and both squads extremely capable of lighting up the scoreboard, look for a Game 2 shootout that flies OVER the total. Take the Over. |
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06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#701) Here’s what Cleveland has done with extra time to prepare this year, off three or more days of rest: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS. That includes double digit wins over Toronto and at Boston earlier in the playoffs. This is NOT a team that I worry about ‘rhythm’ in this type of situation, because their track record clearly shows a layoff is not an issue for the Cavs offensively – they’ve scored 116+ in their last three tries in this role. Here’s what Cleveland has done on the road in the postseason. They closed out last year with SU and ATS wins as an underdog in Games 5 and 7 at Golden State. This year, they are 7-0 SU, 7-0 ATS on the highway in the postseason, not a team that we worry about, ‘execution-wise’ in hostile environments. Golden State didn’t sniff a cover in Game 1 at home against Portland. They didn’t cover in Game 1 at home against Utah. They nearly lost SU at home in Game 1 to San Antonio, despite the Kawhi Leonard injury, lucky to win the game and never in position to cover the pointspread. It’s surely worth noting that a team who is 12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS in the postseason has seen all four of those ATS losses come in the ‘home favorite’ role. Yes ,the Warriors had the better stats in the regular season, particularly on the defensive end of the court. But the regular season ended six weeks ago. Here in the postseason, the Cavs rank #3 among the 16 playoff teams in field goal percentage allowed and #2 in points per shot attempt allowed, just slightly behind the Warriors. And considering how easy Golden State has had it this postseason – they faced the Spurs without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard, faced the Jazz without starting point guard George Hill and the Blazers without their lone big man Jusef Nurkic (until it was too late) – I’m taking their defensive numbers with a grain of salt against an offense of this caliber. Yes, the Warriors are elite. So are the defending champs! And this is a series in which I’m looking to take points, not lay them. Following a legitimately boring first three rounds of the postseason, look for Game 1 of the Finals to be an instant classic that comes right down to the final minute from a SU perspective. That makes taking the points with the Cavs a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Cavs. |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 218 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Boston UNDER (#505-506) The NBA Playoffs have been a boon for Over bettors. The Spurs closed out the playoffs on a 12-3 run to the Over. Golden State is on a 9-3 Over run, Cleveland on a 8-3 Over Run and Boston on a 7-3 Over Run. Each of the first three games of this series has landed right around the total, with two Overs cashing by a combined 4.5 points and the lone Under cashing by 2.5. Given these type of results – Overs cashing in bunches, all three games of this series finishing right around the total – there’s no surprise that the betting markets have NOT made any significant adjustments for Game 4 tonight. And yet tonight’s game has a VERY different feel about it than the first three. The Celtics are not the same team without Isaiah Thomas on the floor. Their offense is slower and less efficient – no surprise there, minus an elite offensive point guard. And their defense is noticeably better minus the single worst defensive point guard in the NBA this season, based on the advanced metric stats. That’s a good part of the reason how the Celtics rallied back from a 21 point second half deficit to win Game 3 -- vastly improved defense, keeping the Cavs from driving into the paint. Boston’s improved defense and weaker offense were NOT truly on full display in Game 3 because BOTH teams were raining three’s throughout; combining for a whopping 34 made three pointers. Had they only made 33 of those, Game 3 would have stayed Under the total. Games 1 and 2 had 23 and 27 three point makes; right in the range of what we should expect again tonight. Without BOTH teams draining three pointers in bunches, this game has all the makings of an Under. No surprise here if we see what we saw from Boston in their Game 6 battle at Washington, a game that stayed 35 points Under…. Take the Under. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6.5 | 130-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#502) Let me start with three quotes; Jae Crowder, Celtics: “A lot of underdogs in this locker room. A lot of guys who had to prove themselves in this league ... who’ve been through the ropes, who’ve had to prove themselves. It’s in our DNA.” Isaiah Thomas, Celtics: “With a team like that, the defending champs, you can't let them hit first. We'll definitely make sure it's different for Game 2. They were the more energized team. There's a reason for that." Tristan Thompson, Cavs: “You can't stop everything. If it's (Jae) Crowder or (Marcus) Smart with the open 3s, we're going to take our chances with the percentages. The guys we can't leave open are (Avery) Bradley and (Isaiah)Thomas." In 90 games this year, Isaiah Thomas had more shot attempts than points only four times; one of which was Game 1. I’m not expecting a repeat showing. Nor do I expect the Celtics to come out lacking energy, like they did in Game 1 following their exhausting seven game series against the Wizards. I’ll take Brad Stevens ability to make adjustments over Tyronn Lue’s, and I’ll take Boston in a ‘bring everything we’ve got’ spot, with their season on the line tonight. Cleveland dominated Game 1, but we’ve seen this Boston team respond well to adversity before; more than once in these playoffs. Expect a competitive game. Take the Celtics. |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Golden State – San Antonio UNDER (#719-720) There is one factor that is putting me squarely on the Under for this ballgame, a factor that trumps any other when it comes to the pace of this ballgame. That factor, of course, is Gregg Popovich; the Bill Belichick of the NBA; a coach who creates gameplans that consistently flummox their opponents. So, pretend you’re Gregg Popovich for a moment. You’ve already lost your starting point guard for the rest of the playoffs, with Tony Parker’s injury. And then you lose your best player on BOTH ends of the court, with Kawhi Leonard expected to miss Game 2 tonight. So what do you do against an elite defense like Golden State’s; a defense that held San Antonio to 33 points over the game’s final 21 minutes after Kawhi Leonard got hurt? If I’m Popovich, I’m looking to SLOW the pace as much as possible, shortening the game and eliminating the ridiculous 25 fast break points that San Antonio allowed after halftime of Game 1. The Spurs are as deep as any team in the league – the back end of their bench can contribute on both ends of the floor, unlike so many other teams. Of course, facing the Warriors, it’s not about contributions from the back end of the rotation – it’s about defense and pace. I’m expecting the Spurs to slow this game to a crawl as best they can. I’m not expecting a late game flurry, with 19 points scored in the final 2:25 of Game 1, because tonight’s game has plenty of ‘dribble out’ potential for the final possessions. Twice in three regular season meetings, San Antonio held Golden State to 100 points or less. No surprise here if they do it again tonight in a game that has all the makings of a relatively low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston – Washington UNDER (#715-716) Let me start with an excerpt from my Under write-up for Game 6, an easy ‘right side’ winner that cashed by more than 30 points: “Two things happened that were ‘different’ in Game 5 between the Wizards and Celtics. First, the Celtics finally figured out their low post defense, repeatedly stuffing John Wall at the rim. Boston blocked a series high eight shots, showing significant improvement in the paint following a series of Brad Stevens adjustments. “Second, the Celtics ran the Wizards out of the gym, after Washington had gotten the job done with their transition in each of their previous two contests; games where the Celtics were held to 89 and 102 points, in sharp contrast to the 123 they hung in Game 5. Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not amused by his team’s defensive showing, as evidenced by this ‘actionable’ quote. “Brooks: “When you give a very good team transition points and breakaway points with nobody guarding you ... it's going to be hard to keep up with them. We had no answers for those guys. We've done a pretty good job on their best player, but not a good enough job on the other guys." So what happened in Game 6? Yes, the shooting percentages were down in a tight defensive struggle. But more than that, the transition buckets simply weren’t there, the pace wasn’t there, and the bevy of ‘free and easy’ buckets weren’t there. I do NOT expect any of that to chance for Game 7, yet the total remains in ‘inflated’ territory based on the full series results thusfar. This is not unusual in the slightest. As a series progresses, teams offer precious few surprises and adjustments to what they’ve already done. That’s at least part of the reason why series tend to get lower scoring, bogging down once we get to Games 6 and 7. In a Game 7 ‘win or go home’ situation where BOTH teams can be expected to get after it defensively, particularly in transition, expect the second consecutive game to stay Under the total by margin; a play worthy of Big Ticket status with this total still sitting above 210 as I write this. Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 217 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Washington UNDER (#711-712) Two things happened that were ‘different’ in Game 5 between the Wizards and Celtics. First, the Celtics finally figured out their low post defense, repeatedly stuffing John Wall at the rim. Boston blocked a series high eight shots, showing significant improvement in the paint following a series of Brad Stevens adjustments. Second, the Celtics ran the Wizards out of the gym, after Washington had gotten the job done with their transition in each of their previous two contests; games where the Celtics were held to 89 and 102 points, in sharp contrast to the 123 they hung in Game 5. Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not amused by his team’s defensive showing, as evidenced by this ‘actionable’ quote. Brooks: “When you give a very good team transition points and breakaway points with nobody guarding you ... it's going to be hard to keep up with them. We had no answers for those guys. We've done a pretty good job on their best player, but not a good enough job on the other guys." Boston has played at a noticeably slower pace on the highway throughout this postseason, cashing four Unders in five road playoff games. That stands in sharp contrast to their 6-0 mark to the Over when playing at home, pushing the pace far more effectively in front of a friendly crowd. As a series progresses, teams offer precious few surprises and adjustments to what they’ve already done. That’s at least part of the reason why series tend to get lower scoring, bogging down once we get to Games 5, 6 and 7. On a night where BOTH teams can be expected to get after it defensively, particularly in transition, expect the lowest scoring game of the series! Take the Under |
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05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | 101-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#519) For a team like the Wizards with a very limited bench, extra rest matters – A LOT. No other team in the NBA had four starters rank among the Top 30 in the league in minutes played during the regular season. No other team has gotten more minutes out of their starters, per game, here in the playoffs. These two teams have played only once since last Thursday, in sharp contrast to the Spurs – Rockets who played three games in that same span. And when those starters are rested and ready like they are tonight, the Wizards have a legitimate edge Make no mistake about it – Washington’s starters have badly outplayed the Celtics starters in this series, as a quick look at the +/- numbers from the first four games will show. Boston has the depth edge, for sure, which mattered a lot in the ‘short turnaround’ Game 1 (Washington played less than 48 hours after beating Atlanta in Game 6) as well as the Game 2 OT thriller on this floor, also played on short rest, when Washington simply ran out of gas down the stretch. But that bench edge doesn’t matter as much when the Wizards are rested – Scott Brooks can keep his key cogs on the court for 40+ minutes tonight if needed. The return of Ian Mahinmi to the Wizards rotation following an extended injury absence didn’t move the needle one iota for the betting markets. But make no mistake about it – Mahinmi is an impact player for the Wizards in this series now that he’s healthy, allowing Marcin Gortat to get his normal rest throughout the game. And with Jason Smith showing no ill effects from his own recent injury concerns, all of a sudden, the Wizards have their full complement of seven footers, primed to dominate the glass like they’ve done in each of the last two games (+14 and +12). Obviously, those extra possessions for Washington mattered in a pair of double digit victories. The homecourt edge in any competitive series declines at this stage – road teams are acclimated to the opposing venue and locked in mentally for a tough series. In a series tied at 2-2, Game 5 is ‘road underdog’ time, as we saw in San Antonio last night. And with John Wall coming off a pair of games in which he was not at his best, hitting just 15-44 from the floor in the Wizards two blowout wins at home, we can expect the Wizards superstar to bring his ‘A’ game here, putting Washington in position to notch the outright upset….or at least come close! Take the Wizards. |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Golden State – Utah OVER (#701-702) Golden State was held to a playoff low 102 points in Game 3. Their backcourt duo of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson finished with a combined 7-29 shooting effort, missing the shots they normally make. Golden State wasn’t hitting from three point range, hitting just 30% from beyond the arc. This team has averaged more than 114 points per game here in the postseason after leading the NBA with a 116 points per game average during the regular season. Even with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint effectively, the Jazz haven’t shown the ability to shut the Warriors offense down for extended stretches at any point during their regular season meetings or here in the playoffs. Most home teams that are down 3-0 in a series are primed to deliver a flat effort in Game 4. There’s not much motivation to get on a plane and fly back to their opponents home court for what is likely to be a rough and ugly Game 5. That does NOT appear to be the case for Utah. Head coach Quin Snyder: “We can’t get to Game #5 until you play Game #4. It's a chance to break through or the season's over. If we're able to do that, we'll turn our attention to the next game. Until we can do that, there's no sense looking forward. Just stay completely present." But it’s not just the coach who is talking the talk. Jazz All Star Gordon Hayward, following their Game 3 loss: “It's definitely encouraging. From where we were Game 1 to where we are tonight, you can see signs of improvement.” Utah’s best player in this series, Rudy Gobert: “I think we've been getting better every game. It's just those last seven minutes when we let them take over the game. I think we've gotten better and we've got to build around what we've done and keep the same attitude, and keep competing, and just believe in ourselves. I think we'll be fine.” How about Kevin Durant’s quote, from the other sideline: “They don't quit. That's what I love about this team. They have a great coach. They play physical. They don't give up. They've got a great crowd as well so they're going to try to feed off of that. The series is far from over.” From a totals perspective, those quotes tell me to expect Utah to fight tonight, not lay down. And if the Jazz fight, the Over here makes perfect sense. Yes, we’ve got a legitimate opportunity for late game scramble points should we need them. But we’ve also got a pair of teams primed to shoot much better in Game 4 than they did in Game 3 – not just Curry and Thompson either> Let’s not forget that other than Gobert hitting seven of his eight shot attempts from short range on Saturday Night, the entire Jazz team went 23-69 from the floor, hitting only 33%. Slightly better shooting from both teams can be expected here, sending this game up and Over the total. Take the OVER. |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 212.5 | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Houston – San Antonio OVER (#515-516) Here’s the key quote from Rockets win Trevor Ariza: “They played harder than we did in the second half. We can't allow that, especially at home. We've got to do a better job of matching their physicality and playing harder.” Here’s the key stat for San Antonio. The Spurs pushed the tempo after halftime of Game 3, hanging 60 points on Houston after the break after scoring only 43 first half points. They finished the second half with an effective FG percentage of 64%. I’m not convinced that Houston has the defensive answers right now, with only 48 hours between games for Mike D’Antoni to make his limited adjustments. Here’s the key quote from Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich; a coach who knows full well that in both Game 1 and Game 2, the winner hung more than 120 on the loser. “It's a challenge. They've got great shooters, good athletes, good scheme, and just as anyone else would do we're just trying to do our best to get out to those shooters. James does a great job making you think about what you have to do to him, how much you can help off other people. It's enough to drive you crazy but you just do your best. That's why people score." The Spurs are 7-2 to the Over here in the postseason, an under-the-radar angle that has not attracted significant betting attention. The Rockets have just been held under 100 points in two consecutive games, getting little from James Harden in one (3-17 shooting, only 13 points) and little from the supporting cast in the second (the rest of the team shot 18-60 30% from the floor). It’s surely worth noting that Houston hasn’t been held under 107 in any three game stretch all season. With the Rockets in desperation mode, expect a ‘push the pace’ offense for 48 minutes from the home favorite tonight, sending this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +4.5 | 115-94 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#736) Here are the two key quotes coming from the Raptors locker room following their Game 2 blowout loss at Cleveland, their fifth consecutive playoff blowout loss to the Cavs at ‘The Q’ over the past two postseasons: Raptors head coach Dwane Casey: "The thing about it is we are in the same place we were last year. Until a team wins on another team's court, it's a series. We go back to Toronto. They have played well, we shake their hand. They shot great and LeBron shot 21 free throws... we shot 19 as a team. They played well but we haven't scratched the surface of where we can go.” Raptors All Star guard DeMar DeRozan, coming off a game in which he finished 2-11 from the floor with only one made free throw, three assists and three rebounds: "It sucks. To lose like we did. To play like I did. It sucks. It's frustrating. Now I just have the added time having to wait till Friday night to redeem myself.” From all indications, the Raptors have not given up. They were in this exact same spot last year and won Games 3 and 4 here in Toronto. Kyle Lowry’s ankle doesn’t appear to be too serious, and the Raptors supporting cast is primed for a step-up game. We saw how this team performed with their backs against the wall vs. Milwaukee in Round 1, notching three straight wins to close out the series. I’m expecting that level of effort and execution again tonight. And with the Cavs taking heavy $$ in early betting action, a competitive loss serves our purposes just fine. The Cavs have played out of their minds on the offensive end of the court in this series. They’re coming off a game in which they shot 55% from two point range and made 18-33 three pointers as well, while LeBron singlehandedly took more free throws than the entire Raptors team. That came on the heels of a 14 three pointer performance in Game 1. Don’t expect ridiculous shooting numbers from the Cavs for the third straight game this evening. And, for all of the Cavs offensive success, this team still isn’t playing championship caliber defense. Their two wins at Indiana in Round 1 were both tight, down-to-the-wire games decided by five points or less. After nine straight double digit blowouts to open up the Round 2 of the Playoffs, this game finally has the feel of a game that’ll come down to the final possession, making the contrarian play of Toronto plus the points a positive expectation wager. Take the Raptors. |
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05-03-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | 96-121 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#733) Note the fact that the betting markets are not pricing in any ‘zig-zag’ here, with the Spurs -5.5 for Game 2 sitting in the exact same place as the Game 1 line. And note the HUGE move on the adjusted series price, with San Antonio -310 prior to Game 1 turning into Houston -125 as I write this on Wednesday morning. What are the markets telling us? Why did we see so little of an adjustment on the Game 2 line and so big of an adjustment for the series price? That markets are telling us what we already know – the Rockets are very live to win again tonight against a Spurs team that just doesn’t match up well against them. Houston beat OKC in five games, despite the fact that their three point shooting was abysmal, ranked 15 out of 16 playoff teams in three point shooting percentage. But San Antonio – a team that almost always plays with two big men on the floor – couldn’t match up against the Rockets shooters in Game 1, and Houston drained 22 three pointers in a game that was over by halftime. So how does Gregg Popovich counter tonight? Good question! LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Dwayne Dedmon and Pau Gasol are not capable of chasing down deadeye dicks on the perimeter. So when the likes of Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza are matched up against those big bodies, or when the Rockets play pick and roll with impunity, Houston has a big edge. That Ariza/Anderson duo combined for nine three pointers on Monday, more than capable of doing it again tonight. And when Coach Pop tried to play smallball, Clint Capela and Nene ate up the Spurs in the low post. These are systemic problems for Coach Popovich, not something 24 hours of film study is going to solve. We can expect San Antonio to play better tonight – they can hardly play worse. But the Spurs haven’t beaten the Rockets by any more than six points in any of the five previous games between these two teams this season. James Harden didn’t explode in Game 1 either (only 20 points on 13 shot attempts), something he’s more than capable of doing. The line was 33 points off the final score in the opener, and I’m not convinced that Houston is being priced correctly this time around either. Take the Rockets. |
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05-01-17 | Raptors +7 v. Cavs | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#723) The Cavaliers played Toronto four times in the regular season. They didn’t win any of those games by more than four points. Three of the games came down to the final possession, the fourth was a Raptors blowout in a game where the Cavs were sitting starters. Cleveland played four games in the first round of the playoffs against a Pacers team with some serious fundamental flaws. The Cavs shot well in the series, particularly in the two home games, when they shot 54% and 55% from the floor while making 24 combined three pointers. Despite that hot shooting, the Cavs didn’t win a game by more than six points in the series, while going 0-2 ATS as home favorites. Their combined margin of victory in an NBA Playoff four game series sweep (just 16 points) was the SMALLEST margin in the history of four game NBA Playoff sweeps. Here’s another one. The Cavs have played nine games against opposing playoff teams at home since the All Star Break. They went 0-8-1 ATS in those ballgames, consistently unable to beat the better teams they face by margin. The Raptors are no upstarts. They faced the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals last year, a series that was tied 2-2 before Toronto finally ran out of gas. And the Raptors reacted strongly and positively to adversity in the first round, rallying back from a 2-1 series deficit with three consecutive wins and covers against the Bucks. The key to that series turnaround was a truly elite defensive effort, something the Raptors are more than capable of doing in this series as well. After picking up Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker at the trading deadline, the Raptors had the fourth ranked defense in the NBA since the All Star Break; a defense worth betting on here. The Cavs ranked #29 in the NBA defensively after the All Star Break. They ranked #13 out of 16 NBA Playoff teams in points allowed per 100 possessions in the first round against Indiana. Kyrie Irving has little chance to stay in front of Kyle Lowry, while DeMar DeRozan has legitimate matchup edges against both JR Smith and Kyle Korver, leaving Cavs coach Tyronn Lue precious few options defensively. The Cavs just aren’t winning by margin right now…… Take the Raptors. |
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04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | 111-123 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Washington (#735) The Wizards played a legitimate playoff caliber opponent in the first round. Washington was tested by Atlanta, forced to make adjustments. Their three point shots didn’t fall at all for the first five games of the series. But the Wizards come out of that series with a boatload of confidence, having overcome adversity in a very real way. Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Otto Porter and Bojan Bodganovic all hit multiple three pointers in their Game 6 rout at Atlanta, the type of confidence boosting road win that this team desperately needed. Boston went 0-2 against the Bulls when the Bulls were a playoff team. Then Rajon Rondo got hurt, leaving Chicago without anything resembling a legitimate NBA point guard. Boston won and covered the next four games against a team that wasn’t elite to begin with; a squad that morphed into a much weaker squad once they had to go with the likes of Isaiah Canaan and Jerian Grant at the point. In other words, Washington is here because they earned it; Boston is here because their opponent suffered a key injury and wasn’t the same team thereafter. Boston isn’t going to have anything resembling a point guard edge facing John Wall in this series. Given Isaiah Thomas’s defensive weaknesses, you can make a strong case for Wall as the best point guard in the Eastern Conference this year. And the Celtics aren’t going to have anything resembling a front court edge either. At times, the Wizards struggled against Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap in the Hawks series. I’m not expecting similar problems against the Celtics small ball lineup. Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller and (potentially) Amir Johnson do not present that same challenge. Look for the Wizards to give the Celtics everything they can handle in Game 1, with a solid shot at the outright upset. We’ve already seen sharp $$ show for the Wizards, and I agree 100% with that assessment. Take the Wizards. |
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04-28-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -2.5 | 115-99 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#512) The Raptors closed out the Bucks and the Spurs closed out the Grizzlies last night, each team winning Game 6 on the road. That does NOT mean we’re not going to see any Game 7’s in the first round this year! And this series has been ‘Ground Zero’ for home court edge here in the playoffs, with the home team winning each of the first five games in this series while going 4-1 ATS. We saw a complete reversal in Game 5 from what we saw in Games 3 and 4 at Atlanta in numerous categories. The Hawks bench was the superior unit in both previous home games in this series. In Game 5, Atlanta’s bench was a collective no-show; outscored 26-19. The Hawks nailed 21 three pointers in their two home wins in the series. In Game 5, everyone NOT named Dennis Schroeder combined to make only 4-25 from beyond the arc. The Hawks didn’t pound the ball into the paint in Game 5, taking only 21 free throws after combining for 55 attempts in the two home games. Perhaps the most important point of all is that the Hawks did NOT have their ‘A’ game in Game 5, yet they still covered the spread nearly wire-2-wire, just as they did in Games 3 and 4. For the first time all series, Mike Budenholzer made defensive adjustments that worked to slow down John Wall, held to his lowest point total of the series. And Bradley Beal’s shooting struggles have continued, an ice cold 24% from three point range in this series after hitting 40% of those shots during the regular season. Atlanta has had the dominant frontcourt in this series, with Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard eating up Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat for extended stretches. That becomes even more of a problem tonight, because the Wizards top two big men off the bench are both hurt. Ian Mahinmi has been unable to play yet in this series and Jason Smith is dealing with a calf injury he suffered on Wednesday. That takes a pair of veteran seven footers out of the equation, leaving the door wide open for a Hawks win and cover. Take the Hawks. |
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04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 190 | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Memphis – San Antonio UNDER (#505-506) Game 6 tonight is a potential closeout game between two defensive minded ballclubs; squads that create their identity on the defensive end of the court. We’ve seen plenty of sluggish, low scoring affairs between these two squads this season. When they played in February, these two squads combined for 163 total points. When they played in April, the game stayed Under by 11.5 points…even AFTER five extra minutes for overtime. And Game 2 of this series was another true grinder; another game that stayed Under the total by a double digit margin, with plenty of room to spare. It’s not like we haven’t seen plenty of low scoring games between the Spurs and the Grizzlies…. But we’ve seen three consecutive ‘shootouts’ in this series, with Games 3, 4 and 5 all flying Over the total. Game 5 earlier in the week was the highest scoring game of the bunch; a 116-103 shootout. Neither coach was particularly amused with their team defense. These two quotes are my primary rationale for this Under bet tonight: Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale, following Game 5: “We did not play defense at all. The Spurs did what the Spurs do. Every mistake, they capitalized on, and it ended in a 3 every time." Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, following Game 5: “I wouldn't say we stopped anybody. But you know we made shots, and that's what we didn't do last game." Both teams shot over 50% from the floor on Tuesday Night. There were more made shots in the game than rebounds, by a double digit margin! That’s not what we can expect in a potential series clincher tonight – expect a VERY different offensive flow in Game 6. Take the Under. |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 212.5 | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Atlanta OVER (#709-710) Each of the last three games in this series has been a legitimate sweat for total bettors. All three games were lined in this same range, right around 211.5 or 212. The three games finished with 210, 212 and 214 points scored – nary a ‘right side’ to be had with the totals. So what makes tonight’s game different? Two things! But first, let me state that the pace in this series has been frenetic throughout, something I don’t expect to change as the Wizards return home where they have pushed tempo effectively all year. What’s different? The Wizards ranked among the top quartile of NBA teams in terms of three point shooting percentage during the regular season. Here in the playoffs, they rank #15 of the 16 postseason teams in three point shooting percentage, hitting under 30% from downtown. On a team where John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morriss, Otto Porter Jr and Bojan Boddanovic all shot well from three point range during the regular season, there’s ample reason to expect some of those shots to fall here in Game 5. The second factor is how chippy this series has gotten, with a fair bit of bad blood between these two teams already. That sets the stage for a foul fest, especially in the aftermath of a very physical Game 4 after the two teams combined to hit only 37 and 36 free throws in the two games in Atlanta (compared to 57 made free throws in Game 2 and 48 in Game 1). Neither team has shut down their opponent in any game of this series yet, with the loser cracking 100 in three of the four games (and 98 in the fourth) while the winner has been at 109 or higher every time. We saw 212 points in Game 4, despite re the fact that neither squad hit 45% from the floor, the lack of free throw attempts and Washington’s poor three point shooting. All three of those stats (shooting percentage, three point shooting percentage and free throws) are primed for an uptick tonight! Take the Over. |
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04-25-17 | Grizzlies +10 v. Spurs | 103-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#703) Kawhi Leonard has legitimately been unstoppable in this series. Without injured defensive stopper Tony Allen available for Memphis, Leonard has torched the Grizzlies to the tune of 130 points in 147 floor minutes, hitting 58% from the field while going a ridiculous 40-40 from the free throw line. The Spurs finished the season with the second best record in the NBA, while Memphis slumped badly down the stretch: 9-15 SU after the All Star Break. And yet here the series is, tied at 2-2. What gives? Simple – the Spurs have a pair of real matchup problems in this series, matchup problems that aren’t going to disappear overnight. It starts at point guard where Mike Conley is running circles around Tony Parker and Patty Mills. In Game 3, the Spurs won the battle of the boards by nine, hit 47% of their shots including 10-24 from three point range, and they still lost by double digits. In Game 4, Tony Parker somehow finished with a +5 in his 37 floor minutes, with his 22 points matching his season high. Again, the Spurs still didn’t win the game, despite one of their weakest links bringing his ‘A’ game. Meanwhile, Conley has been the second best player in this series, behind Kawhi, and he’s absolutely controlled the flow in the last two games, with the Grizzlies finding (and knocking down) some open looks. Point guard is not the only matchup problem here for the Spurs – they also have no answer for Grizzlies All Star center Marc Gasol, who hit the game winner in Game 4 and has been a dominant low post force throughout this series. Facing a Spurs team that is not built for covering big pointspreads – San Antonio went 2-9 ATS after March 1st laying -8 or higher -- expect the Conley-Gasol combo to keep the Grizzlies competitive throughout. Game 4 went to OT, their final regular season meeting went to OT, and tonight’s game has all the makings of another relatively tight affair. Take the Grizzlies. |
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04-25-17 | Thunder v. Rockets -7.5 | 99-105 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#706) My clients and I cashed a lucky winner with the Rockets in Game 3. We cashed another winner with Houston’s outright upset at OKC in Game 4. And there’s absolutely no reason to jump off the Rockets profit train tonight as they look to close out the Thunder right here in Game 5. As we saw in Game 1, when things go south for the Thunder, this team tends to get annihilated. That’s how 20 of their 35 regular season losses came by double digit margins. That’s how they lost Game 1 by 31 points. Yet the markets see a series that has been extremely competitive. Each of the last three games has been decided by four points or less AND three of the four regular season meetings were decided by three points or less. ‘Competitive series’, say the markets: ‘It’s gonna be tight.’ I couldn’t disagree more. OKC has had the halftime lead in all four games of this series, yet they are one game from elimination. They had Game 2 won and let it get away. They could have won Game 4, but let that one get away too. In the two games at OKC, the Thunder were outscored by a net margin of two points despite outshooting the Rockets 52.4% to 44.6%, including a 45.7% to 30% edge from the three point line. Frankly, how much better can OKC be asked to shoot! James Harden knows what is at stake for the home favorite looking to close out the series and embark on a deep playoff run: “We got to get off to a good start. The whole series, our second halves have been pretty good, especially defensively. We got to get off to a really good start, offensively, get a good rhythm and carry that for four quarters. Just come out with some urgency. We're at home and it's a close-out game. If that's not enough, I don't know what to tell." Expect the appropriate level of focus from Houston tonight, and don’t be shocked if they land a knockout blow relatively early against an OKC squad that might have a bit of a glass chin tonight if they fall behind. Take the Rockets. |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Washington (#519) I want the Wizards off a bad loss, like the one they suffered in Game 3 on Saturday. The Wiz weren’t ready from the get-go, trailing by 18 points after the first quarter and never cutting the lead to single digits thereafter. Let’s not forget that Washington is 5-1 ATS in their last six tries off a double digit defeat. Nor should we forget that the Wizards are 5-1 SU against the Hawks since last November, consistently taking care of business against Mike Budenholzer’s squad. The Wizards haven’t even played a good game yet in this series. John Wall has been the best player on the floor for either squad. But the Wizards supporting cast – most notably Otto Porter, Bradley Beal and Markieff Morris – are a combined 48-124 shooting in the series, under 39%. Their bench has been every bit as cold, a combined 27-70 (38%) from the floor. And the three point shooting has been even worse, with Porter, Beal, Morris and the bench combining to hit only 17-72 (23%) from downtown. Washington is a very good offensive team, and they’ve hung 109+ in two of the first three games despite that woeful shooting. Markieff Morris, following the Game 3 loss: “We’re missing wide open shots. We must have had, like, 30 of them in the first half alone. It seemed like our legs were heavy or something. It was one of those days. We’ll bounce back. I’m not taking nothing away from them, but we’re better than that.” John Wall agreed: “We had a lot of great looks, a lot of missed shot. We have to be better.” Here’s Wizards head coach Scott Brooks, talking about Bradley Beal: “You know what? I like his looks. I’ve been saying it for the last couple of games. I like his shots. He’s just going to have to keep shooting them. We’re going to have to keep getting him open looks like we have. Every player will go through a stretch of games, a few games, where you’re not going to shoot the ball well. He’ll bounce back.” The Wizards were -13 in Porter’s 24 minutes on Saturday, -17 in Morris’s 29 minutes and -22 in Gortat’s 29 minutes while all there members of the Hawks starting frontcourt were at +22 or higher; basically the exact opposite of what we saw in the first two games of this series. Conceptually, the Wiz are primed to shoot better tonight and the Hawks frontcourt is not primed to dominate at the same level. My pre-series opinion that the Wizards were the better of these two teams hasn’t changed one bit, and this is a ‘Grade A’ spot for the road underdog. Big Ticket: Take the Wizards. |
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04-23-17 | Rockets +1 v. Thunder | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#511) My clients and I cashed a winning bet with the Rockets plus the points on Friday Night. OKC hit 55% from the field in that game and 47% from three point range. Russell Westbrook had another triple double and FOUR of his teammates reached double digits in the scoring column including a ‘where the heck did that come from’ game from Taj Gibson, with his single highest scoring output since joining the team at the trading deadline. OKC avoided turnovers, too, with only 11 for the entire game. All five of their bench players scored at least five points, getting solid production from a very suspect unit. In essence, the Thunder played about as well as they could play, and they still barely won the game, escaping with a two point victory. Houston did not play anything resembling their ‘A’ game, finishing with a woeful 10 assists on 38 made buckets while shooting only 28% from three point range. They still lost by only two, covering the spread in the process. And now we’ve got the Rockets focused and hungry coming off a defeat; a mature enough team to recognize the ‘must win’ nature of this contest to keep them fresh for a deep postseason run. No brainer here – better team, off a loss, catching points. Take the Rockets. |
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04-22-17 | Wizards v. Hawks OVER 210 | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Washington OVER (#503-504) Here’s the key quote, from Hawks All Star forward Paul Millsap: “It’s simple. Our small ball is better than theirs. We think we play small ball better than anybody in the league. That is one of our better lineups. We can push the tempo. Get up and down the court.” And Millsap is right. The Hawks ARE at their best when pushing the pace with their ‘small-ball’ lineup. And Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer made a key rotation adjustment in Game 2, sitting Dwight Howard throughout the fourth quarter. Budenholzer: “It spreads the court more. It gets more ball-handlers, more guys who can get to the paint.” When your paint protecting, shot blocking big man is sitting on the sidelines, it’s generally good news for Over bettors. So, we’ve got a Wizards team that plays their best basketball when pushing the pace – John Wall is as quick as any point guard in the NBA right now. Washington has hung 112, 104, 114 and 109 on Atlanta in the four meetings played in 2017. We’ve got a Hawks team that is looking to do the exact same thing. We’re coming off a game in which both teams were ice cold from three point range, a combined 11-42. And yet the markets have adjusted this total downwards from Game 2’s number. Put it all together and the Over in Game 3 is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Over. |
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04-21-17 | Rockets +2.5 v. Thunder | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#717) Let me start by drawing an analogy to the Pacers – Cavs series. Indiana was in position to win Game 1, but they didn’t hit the potential game winner. They roared back from an 18 point deficit in Game 2, but again, couldn’t make the key plays down the stretch to emerge victorious. After the game, Paul George called out his teammates. So when push came to shove in Game 3 and Cleveland went on their big run, the Pacers had neither the confidence nor the level of execution to stem the tide. What does this have to do with OKC? Simple – Russell Westbrook’s ‘ugliest fourth quarter of all time’ in which he ball hogged to a truly ridiculous extent while costing his team the game has the potential to have some real lingering effects. That’s particularly bad news considering that Houston is the better of these two teams, and they’re coming off a game in which they didn’t hit shots….. Here’s the quote from OKC center Steven Adams, who took a grand total of three shots in the Game 2 loss: “We just weren't taking the greatest of shots, and they really capitalized on that. It was a combination of things and our mental stamina needs to be a little better.'' The Rockets were -15 with Westbrook off the court in the six and half minutes that he sat in Game 2. With him on the court, they blew a double digit lead and stunk down the stretch. That’s not an easy dilemma for Billy Donovan to solve. The Rockets were able to win Game 2 despite a mediocre shooting night. James Harden: “It wasn't pretty. We didn't make a lot of shots. We gave them the early lead and we had to fight our way back and we did. We didn't give up. We continued to fight and grind and figure out a way to win." Houston has the better team, the significantly better bench and a legit chemistry edge. If the Thunder find a way to steal this one, I’m not expecting it to come by any sort of margin. Take the Rockets. |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196.5 | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Toronto – Milwaukee UNDER (#711-712) The Bucks and Raptors have played four times since the calendar turned to 2017. Three of the four games stayed Under the total, producing 195 points or less. The only Over cash – in Game 2 of this series – came, in large part, due to uncharacteristically good three point shooting. Milwaukee and Toronto combined to hit 25-52 from three point range in that contest, both squads exceeding their season long three point shooting percentage by double digit margins. That allowed an Over cash despite a relatively slow pace, just like Game 1. Toronto’s gameplan on the highway has been very consistent down the stretch. Dwane Casey wants to avoid turnovers like the plague, and play a half-court game on both ends of the floor. The Raptors were a Top 5 defensive team in the NBA after the All Star Break, and they are a team that doesn’t look to push the pace on offense, very comfortable in their halfcourt sets. No surprise, then, that the Raptors are 16-5 to the Under in their last 21 on the highway. The Raptors hung 106 on Milwaukee when these teams met on Tuesday, and Jason Kidd was not amused, stressing defense to his team in practice and in his media sessions. It’s surely worth noting that the Bucks are 16-4-1 to the Under in their last 21 tries after their opponent hung 100+ against them. And with Toronto finding an effective way to defense Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 2, don’t expect the Bucks offense to be particularly ‘free flowing’ tonight, helping this Game 3 stay Under the total with room to spare. Take the Under. |
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04-19-17 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 212 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Washington - Atlanta UNDER (#701-702) The betting markets have adjusted the Game 2 total higher after Game 1 was played at a torrid pace, leading to a combined 221 points and an Over cash for bettors. I’m not convinced that the adjustment upwards is the appropriate move here! Atlanta has spent the last two days in practice working on transition defense, looking to take the Wizards away from their fast break points. Guard Tim Hardaway Jr: “Transition. Same since Day 1. If we do not get back, it is going to be hard for us to win games.” Head coach Mike Budenholzer: “The thing that stood out the most was was we thought was most important coming into the series which is transition defense. We’ve got to to be better. It’s got to be the priority and the emphasis.” With the Hawks making a concerted effort to slow Game 2 down, it’s worth looking back at the regular season meetings. These two teams played opening night — way too long ago to worry about. But the other three regular season meetings all stayed Under the total by double digit margins, a clear indicator that the Hawks ‘slow it down’ strategy is not some pipe dream. Game 1 was a foul fest as well, with the two teams combining to hit 48 of 56 free throw attempts. Paul Millsap: “We were playing basketball, they were playing MMA’. Considering that the Hawks ranked #28 in free throw shooting this year and that the Wizards ranked #23 in free throws attempted, I’m not expecting another 48 points to be scored with the shot clock off tonight. Take the UNDER. |
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04-18-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -7 | 111-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#528) I’m not a huge proponent of the ‘zig-zag’ theory for NBA Playoff betting; a theory that has been widely proven to be no better than a 50:50 proposition over the past decade. That being said, this is a ‘worthy’ zig-zag spot for a Celtics team that has responded well to adversity all season long AND a Bulls team that has not responded well to favorable situations like this one. The results don’t lie. Brad Stevens squad has been nothing short of awful in the ‘big favorite’ role; a woeful 1-13 ATS when laying -8 or higher. But the Celtics have been just fine in this mid-range favorite’s role, 29-20 ATS when laying -7.5 or less. They’re 21-9 SU off a loss, 18-12 ATS, money winners in that role as well. And let’s be real about what happened in Game 1 of this series. Boston didn’t play well; Chicago played great, especially their superstar Jimmy Butler who was virtually unstoppable down the stretch. The Celtics didn’t earn the #1 seed in the East by accident. They won their two regular season home games against the Bulls by a combined 29 point margin, 2-0 ATS. Chicago’s +17 rebounding edge in Game 1 isn’t likely to be repeated either – Boston won the battle of the boards by +11 in their final regular season meeting. The Bulls have responded well to adversity and poorly to success all season long. Let’s not forget how the Bulls lost to the Knicks and the Nets over the final ten days of the regular season while they were scrapping for this playoff spot, losing each of those games immediately following an impressive victory. And the Bulls spotty bench play - a consistent problem this year – isn’t likely to get the same level of production out of the likes of Bobby Portis, Paul Zipser, Jerian Grant and Cristiano Felicio that they did in Game 1. Celtics bounce back strong here! Take the Celtics. |
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04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 209.5 | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Indiana OVER (#517-518) The Cavaliers defensive deficiencies have been a major story throughout the second half of the regular season, when Cleveland ranked #29 in points allowed per 100 possessions after the All Star Break, one tenth of one percent better than the #30 ranked, lottery bound LA Lakers. Indiana almost stole Game 1, in large part, due to those Cavs defensive weaknesses. Indiana had open looks throughout, consistently breaking down that suspect Cleveland defense. But the Cavs scored at a 119 points per 100 possessions rate, a rate that could have been a good notch or two higher had Cleveland not missed 13 of their 27 free throw attempts. Noe of this is likely to change in any significant way for Game 2. Cleveland has no switch they can flip to turn a bad defensive team in recent months into an elite, championship caliber defense in the 48 hours since Saturday’s opener. The Pacers really don’t have many answers for the Cavaliers offensive versatility – other than Myles Turner, the Indiana roster combined for two steals and no blocks in Game 1. And Cleveland wasn’t even hot from three point range on Saturday; a team with eight legitimate threats to get hot from downtown and light up the scoreboard in a hurry. Here’s the kicker, turning an initial ‘lean’ towards the Over into an actual wager for Game 2. Tyrone Lue, following the Game 1 victory: “We didn’t push the ball in the fourth quarter. We got stops and we just walked the ball up the floor and that put us in one-on-one situations. We took some bad shots. We didn’t keep playing with the same intensity, the same pace offensively once we did get stops.” Expect the Cavs to push the pace throughout tonight, sending Game 2 Over the total, just like Game 1. Take the Over. |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -103 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Toronto (#504) I don’t put too much emphasis on regular season games, but this season series is worth noting. The Raptors played the Bucks three times with a healthy Kyle Lowry. They went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in those games, including a pair of comfortable wins in Toronto by 22 and 16 points. I don’t put too much emphasis on what happened last year, but the Raptors playoff run is worth noting. Toronto lost Game 1 at home in the first round as seven point favorites against Indiana. Then lost Game 1 at home in the second round as four point favorites against Miami. Toronto went on to win both of those series in seven games, but they had little left in the tank for their Eastern Conference Finals matchup against the Cavs. I’m expecting a particularly focused effort from the home favorite in Game 1 this time around. And when Toronto comes with a focused effort, this team is borderline elite. Make no mistake about it — this year’s Raptors team is a good notch or two better than last year’s squad. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both enter the playoffs with far less wear and tear on their bodies than they had a season ago; a notable difference from last year. The toughness and veteran playoff savvy of Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker cannot be overestimated in comparison to last year’s squad, a team that came up just two wins short of their first-ever trip to the NBA Finals. Let’s be real about this - Toronto is consistently overlooked by the mainstream US audience. They’re not on TV —ever. The Bucks have the young superstar with the cool nickname — Greek Freak — while the Raptors continue to suffer from at least a modest branding problem. That creates a notch or two’s worth of extra value when this team is good, like they’ve been in recent seasons — it really does. The results don’t lie. The Raptors were a Top 5 ATS team this year and they were a Top 5 ATS team last year.Milwaukee has one unsolvable matchup problem against Toronto; a problem that isn’t going to go away. The Bucks are not bulky and physical in the paint. They are a miserable rebounding team — only the Mavericks had a lower rebound rate on misses than Milwaukee this year. Since picking up Tucker and Ibaka at the trading deadline, the Raptors have been a Top 5 team in rebounding margin. That means extra possessions for a focused home favorite. Big Ticket: Take the Raptors. |
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04-10-17 | Spurs -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NBA Game of the Month: Take San Antonio (#713) Gregg Popovich, following the Spurs home loss to the Clippers on Saturday: “Our execution at both games, defensively and offensively, was very poor. Nobody's going to rest. Everybody's going to play….There's no back-to-backs. There's no bad travel or anything like that, so it's time for rhythm and that sort of thing. Hopefully we'll play better next week. They were more aggressive than we were. They wanted the game more. We were aggressive, got into them and showed the physicality and communication necessary to win against a good team for about six minutes of the third quarter, and that was that. We didn't have enough physical toughness to compete with them." That, folks, is a Hall of Fame head coach calling out his team two games before the playoffs start, on the heels of a home loss to the Lakers earlier in the week. And when Pops calls his team out in a spot like this, I’m all ears, a coach with a proven track record of getting his players to respond appropriately to his message. Expect a focused, concerted effort from the road favorite this evening. The Blazers just concluded a frenetic, furious run to the postseason, clinching the #8 seed with Denver’s loss last night. The Blazers are 16-5 SU since March 1st and 9-1 ATS in their last ten games overall, including a 7-0 SU and ATS run here in Portland. But after clinching last night, expect head coach Terry Stotts to manage his minutes very carefully tonight, most notably in regards to backcourt mates Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, both of whom rank in the Top 16 in minutes played per game this season. And make no mistake about it – the Blazers are NOT the same team without injured center Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup. Nurkic had an instant impact when he arrived from Denver at the trading deadline – just when Portland started to make their run. Since he got hurt, the Blazers have lost the rebounding battle in five straight games. They were bailed out by a 59 point effort by Lillard against Utah over the weekend, on a night where his teammates combined to produce only 42 points between them. Don’t expect another Lillard bailout tonight in a game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Spurs. |
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04-09-17 | Cavs -2 v. Hawks | 125-126 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#503) The Cavs weren’t just beaten by the Hawks in the first half of this ‘home and home’ on Friday Night – they were flat out embarrassed at home. Atlanta sat many of their key guys, including Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap, Dennis Schroeder and Kent Bazemore. They still won by 14 as 15.5 point underdogs, controlling the flow throughout. Lebron following the loss: "The energy level was just real bad… You expect for us to want to get better and we were doing that and we took a couple steps back tonight.” Cavs head coach Tyrone Lue: “Obviously a bad performance. To beat Boston and have the game that we had and to come back and not validate it against a team that didn't even play their guys. I didn't think we respected them tonight. I thought we thought we'd just mess around with the game until it was time to knuckle down…..Trying to hold onto that No. 1 seed and getting rest and you come out and have a performance like this, it's not good." Expect a different energy level from the Cavs today – period. And in those few regular season games where we can expect Cleveland to show up with max intensity, the Cavs are as ‘bet-on’ as it gets….as we saw in Boston last week. The Hawks are 2-10 ATS at home since the All Star Break including five outright losses as chalk. Even the two SU and ATS wins during this entire span come with asterisks. They beat the Raptors by six as three point chalk on a night where Toronto had just lost point guard Kyle Lowry and shot an ugly 4-25 from three point range. Had the Raptors hit 20% from beyond the arc in that game, the Hawks would be 0-fer ATS at home for the last eight weeks. And they beat the Celtics despite allowing 116 points, one of only two games all season they’ve allowed more than 110 in regulation in a winning effort. Coming off back-2-back statement game wins, Atlanta is NOT a team I trust to hang tough with a focused Cavs squad today! Take the Cavs. |
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04-08-17 | Heat +5.5 v. Wizards | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#707) The Heat have fought tooth and nail in nearly every game for the better part of the last three months, while going 27-11 SU following their 11-30 start. Yet Eric Spoelstra’s squad is still on the outside, looking in, at the #8 seed in the East. Miami covered the spread in a two point loss at Toronto last night, despite Hassan Whiteside dealing with foul trouble. Miami point guard Goran Dragic, following the defeat: “You can see that this team has a lot of grit. Even when we are own big we still fight to the end. We came back, we tied the game and they got that big 3 by Ibaka. Unfortunately, we couldn't defend well, especially in the end, but I am proud of my guys' heart, that they didn't give up.” The Heat have been nothing short of outstanding in this role. They’re 12-2 ATS on the second night of back-2-backs. And, incredibly, the Heat are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 tries as underdogs since their last ATS loss in this role – an eight point loss at Milwaukee as 7.5 point underdogs back on January 13th. Both of those are ongoing, under-the-radar angles that are NOT appropriately reflected in the betting markets. To call the Washington Wizards a tired team right now would not be an overstatement. In 25 games since the All Star Break, the Wizards have changed courts 21 times. Their longest homestand has been two games long, and they made two extended West Coast trips in March while playing 13 of their last 18 on the highway. Head coach Scott Brooks has a problem moving forward and he knows it – his veterans have played too many minutes. John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter all rank among the Top 17 players in the NBA in minutes played this year, with Marcin Gortat checking in at #30 on that chart. To put those numbers in perspective, no other team has three players in the Top 20 or four players in the Top 30 of minutes played. Right now, rest is more important than wins for this squad, plain and simple. The Wizards and their backers enjoyed one of the best pointspread hot streaks in the NBA this season, going 22-6 ATS from the second week of December through early February, an extended run of excellence. But the markets caught up and the Wizards level of play has decline – they’re 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games, with two of those covers coming against bottom feeders (Nets -11, Lakers -9). In other words, the Wiz have NOT been covering pointspreads against competitive opponents in recent weeks, bad news for Wizards backers laying the chalk tonight. Take the Heat. |
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04-07-17 | Kings +2 v. Lakers | 94-98 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento (#517) Let’s make this very clear: the Lakers have no interest in winning this game, yet they are the favorite tonight against Sacramento. Don’t be fooled for a minute by LA’s current two game winning streak. LA took advantage of a slumping, tired Grizzlies squad, despite allowing poor shooting Memphis to hit 50% from the floor against them. And LA’s win on Wednesday over the Spurs should come with about eight asterisks! Let’s make this very clear: Greg Popovich isn’t allowed to say that he ‘threw’ an NBA game, but that’s exactly what he did against the Lakers on Wednesday. Pops emptied his bench, and kept it that way – Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge all played 16 minutes or less, and the Spurs didn’t put up anything resembling a fight. Was Luke Walton trying to win the game? Read between the lines of this quote, talking about how he blew off practice the day before the game, giving his team a break: “ It was good to break things up and get out of the routine a little bit. You always take that into consideration. But there’s (a few) games left and player development is the most important thing for us. Doing things like that is great for the guys. We’re going to have plenty of practice time this summer together.” LA hasn’t won three straight games since the first week of November. They’re 3-7 ATS as favorites this year, including a loss to the Kings on this floor the last time these two teams met. LA will lose their #1 draft pick to Philly unless it’s a top three pick. Losing legitimately matters here! Walton knows it. He tried to lose to San Antonio, benching his starters throughout the fourth quarter, with little used Metta World Peace, Tyler Ennis, Tarik Black and Thomas Robinson getting the crunch time minutes. That’s not a rotation worth laying points with! Sacramento is playing out the string as well, but the Kings haven’t quit. They’re not benching all their key players in the fourth quarter to try and lose; coming off back-2-back solid victories against Minnesota and Dallas. The likes of Buddy Hield, Ben McLemore, Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein are all building blocks for the future, taking advantage of their extra playing time in recent weeks. Wrong team favored her! Take the Kings. |
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04-06-17 | Celtics -1.5 v. Hawks | 116-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#709) Not many playoff teams have played worse basketball than the Atlanta Hawks in recent weeks, and no playoff team has played worse basketball at home than the Hawks since the All Star Break. The results do not lie. Atlanta has lost nine of their last eleven overall, including an ugly loss at lowly Brooklyn in their last outing; their second loss to the Nets in a ten day span. And the Hawks are a truly woeful 1-10 ATS at home since the All Star Break including five outright losses as chalk. Even the one SU and ATS win during this entire span comes with an asterisk – they beat the Raptors by six as three point chalk on a night where Toronto had just lost point guard Kyle Lowry and shot an ugly 4-25 from three point range. Had the Raptors hit 20% from beyond the arc in that game, the Hawks would be 0-fer ATS at home for the last eight weeks. This is NOT a team I trust to hang tough with quality competition right now. The Celtics have been outstanding ATS all year in three roles. They’ve been an excellent pointspread team on the highway (23-15-1 ATS). They’ve been an solid, winning team on the second night of back-2-backs (10-6 SU). And they’ve been an excellent pointspread team off a loss (20-8 SU, 17-11 ATS). They’re in all three of those roles tonight. And I want Boston off a ‘statement’ game loss like the one they suffered against Cleveland last night; a no-show form the get-go in arguably their biggest game of the season. Character teams like the Celtics tend to be fairly strong ‘bet-on’ squads following a dismal effort like the one we saw last night. Brad Stevens, following that loss: “You name it, they were better in every category and made it really tough on us. They played with more purpose, more pace. Again, you name it, they won it. I thought we were missing, too. We got some reasonable looks when we were playing inside-out." Expect a strong bounceback here! Take the Celtics. |
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04-05-17 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Rockets | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#507) The Nuggets and Rockets have played twice since the All Star Break. Houston won both games, but both outcomes were in doubt right through the final minute of play, with the Rockets winning by a combined total of five points. They’re laying in the -8.5/-9 range as I do this write-up on Wednesday morning, the wrong ‘price range’ for this matchup. Houston is the ultimate ‘nothing to play for down the stretch’ playoff squad, locked into the #3 seed in the West. Head coach Mike D’Antoni sat James Harden and Trevor Ariza on Sunday despite the Rockets having lost three straight at the time. Sam Dekker and Ryan Anderson are both out this evening. Houston is talking the talk about playing hard and winning games down the stretch, but they just had two days completely off, without practice or film study, and I’m not expecting their ‘A’ game tonight. Eric Gordon’s quote stands out too: “We've got to focus in on having everyone healthy before the postseason starts.” Denver’s got seven players into the double digit scoring column with a momentum boosting win at New Orleans last night, now only half a game behind the Blazers for the final playoff spot in the West. They’ve gotten Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler back in the lineup while winning tough games against fellow playoff contenders Miami and New Orleans already on this road trip. Head Coach Mike Malone: “A lot of people keep counting us out. We lose three in a row and a lot of people kind of give up. Everyone in that locker room is remaining positive and optimistic, and we’re going to play this thing out.” Take the Nuggets |
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04-04-17 | Hornets +4 v. Wizards | 111-118 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Charlotte (#707) To call the Washington Wizards an exhausted team right now would not be an overstatement. In 23 games since the All Star Break, the Wizards have changed courts 19 times. Their longest homestand has been two games long, and they made two extended West Coast trips in March while playing 12 of their last 16 on the highway. They closed out their latest West Coast trip with their third consecutive loss, blasted at Golden State on Sunday. Washington has absolutely nothing to play for down the stretch. The Wizards are locked into a Top 4 seed in the East – they’ll have homecourt edge in the first round even if they lose their last five games Head coach Scott Brooks has a problem moving forward and he knows it – his veterans have played too many minutes. John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter all rank among the Top 17 players in the NBA in minutes played this year, with Marcin Gortat checking in at #30 on that chart. To put those numbers in perspective, no other team has three players in the Top 20 or four players in the Top 30 of minutes played. Right now, rest is more important than wins for this squad, plain and simple. The Wizards and their backers enjoyed one of the best pointspread hot streaks in the NBA this season, going 22-6 ATS from the second week of December through early February, an extended run of excellence. But the markets caught up and the Wizards level of play has decline – they’re 3-9 ATS in their last dozen games, with two of those covers coming against bottom feeders (Nets -11, Lakers -9). In other words, the Wiz have NOT been covering pointspreads against competitive opponents. Charlotte is on the other end of the ‘momentum’ spectrum; 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine ballgames including SU road wins at Oklahoma City, Toronto and Orlando. Unlike the Wizards with nothing meaningful to play for, the Hornets are fighting tooth and nail for one of the last playoff spots in the East, and they’ve still got work to do. With their bench playing at the highest level they’ve played at all year and Kemba Walker demonstrating plenty of ‘refuse to lose’ mentality, the Hornets are live to win this game in SU fashion, with the points providing us a nice, generous little cushion if they fall just short Take the Hornets. |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina -1 v. Gonzaga | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina (#601) The game comes down to two key concepts for me. First, no mid-major team has won a national title in the modern era of college basketball. Here in the 21st century, we’ve seen Butler reach this game twice. Memphis got here as well. But the mid-majors haven’t been able to seal the deal and come home with the trophy. I do not view Gonzaga as the exception to that rule. Secondly, North Carolina really didn’t play a good game on Saturday Night. Other than Kennedy Meeks, the Tar Heels combined to shoot 14-55 from the floor, just 25% shooting. Point guard Joel Berry hit his first shot of the game, then missed 13 of 14 the rest of the way while finishing with only two assists. Isaiah Hicks hit only one of his 12 shot attempts. For a team that shot 45% for the season, I’m not expecting another game where very few of their open looks fall. Contrast that with the Zags who still didn’t cover the pointspread in their win over South Carolina despite huge offensive games from just about every key player. Jordan Matthews was raining three’s; Przemek Karnowski and Zack Collins combined for a dozen makes in the low post and Nigel Williams Goss played his best game of the tournament. The Zags just played their best game, and they’ve not been on this stage before. The Tar Heels are coming off a ‘very lucky to survive’ game, primed to make a statement after getting all the way back to the national title game that they lost last year. In this pointspread range, where a SU win should equate to the pointspread cover, the Tar Heels are the only way I can look. Take North Carolina |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 23 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Gonzaga (#812) Looking back at my Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook from back in October (a ‘must read’ for serious college hoops bettors), most of the Final Four is no surprise. North Carolina, Oregon and Gonzaga all ranked among the Top 14 teams in the country heading into the campaign, and they’ve all (obviously) lived up to their potential. South Carolina, on the other hand, was picked as the #9 team in the SEC; a conference with only one team in their Preseason Top 25. Yes, the Gamecocks played better than expected during the regular season, but they still lost ten games and were a long, long way from being anywhere near ‘elite’; particularly on the offensive end of the floor. So how have the Gamecocks managed to win four tough games over the past two weekend, including impressive upsets over Duke, Baylor and Florida? Simple – hot shooting! A team that barely averaged 70 points per game in their first 32 contests has averaged 82 ppg in the Big Dance while shooting 48% from the floor. Sindarius Thornwell has been on fire, scoring 24+ in all four tourney games, but it’s been the inconsistent supporting cast that has been the difference maker, with at least four players reaching the double digit scoring column in every tourney game. I don’t believe that the Gamecocks balanced scoring and hot shooting continues here. This matchup does not favor their offensive chances of success. Gonzaga is still standing only because of their defensive acumen -- West Virginia would have beaten them without some terrific Zags defense. Mark Few’s squad is the #1 ‘adjusted defensive efficiency’ team in the country. They’ve held opponents to under 35% shooting in this tournament, not atypical of what they’ve done all year. Few: “This is the best defensive team I’ve coached in my 18 years at Gonzaga.” When an elite defense meets up with a suspect offense, we can expect problems for that suspect offense. As a team, the Gamecocks have precious little experience in big games and big venues like this one. Sophomore guard PJ Dozier, talking about playing in front of 75,000 fans in Glendale: “I can't even imagine it. I have no idea what to expect.” Gonzaga, on the other hand, has all kinds of big game experience, both this year and in recent seasons. They beat Florida and Iowa State in the HP Fieldhouse in Kissimmee, Florida. They beat Arizona at the Staples Center in LA and knocked off Tennessee in Knoxville. I trust this squad to execute their gameplan in this type of environment far more than I trust the Gamecocks to do likewise. Gonzaga has faced several really tough defenses in this tourney – they’re battle tested now, not going to be overwhelmed by the Gamecocks defensive pressure. The Zags are far more efficient in their half court sets offensively than their opponent – when South Carolina isn’t generating turnovers in bunches, they’re not scoring points in bunches. And, crucial in this pointspread range, the Zags hit their free throws (despite some struggles last weekend) at a 72% clip, capable of extending this lead in the final minute should we need it. Big Ticket: Take Gonzaga. |
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03-31-17 | Nuggets +2 v. Hornets | 114-122 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#501) Let me start with an excerpt from my last write-up betting against the Hornets; a winning bet from earlier in the week when they lost at home to Milwaukee by double digits, a game they were down 20 at home before halftime. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “Charlotte was a playoff team last year, finishing with 48 wins and the #6 seed. The markets still remember and respect that team, in some ways overshadowing the 34-41 squad from this year in the betting world. The Hornets did their best to blow a 25 point second half lead against a Suns team playing on the second night of back-2-backs in their last game, on the heels of a defensive no-show against the Cavs in their previous contest. Charlotte is not primed to make a ‘statement’ type late season run.” But the Hornets are coming off a hot shooting road victory as underdogs in Toronto on Wednesday. Worrisome? Not really, if we believe this quote from Raptors head coach Dwane Casey: “We had a couple of breakdowns in coverage, mistakes we usually don't make. (The Hornets) made every shot and you have to shake their hands in that situation.” I’m not expecting Charlotte to ‘make every shot’ down the stretch again tonight. The Nuggets have lost back-2-back games, dropping them to the #9 seed in an 8 berth playoff race. But all the quotes coming out of this locker room scream ‘bet-on’, especially when we consider that Denver hasn’t lost three straight games since the first week of January; 12-4 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 tries off a defeat. Nuggets guard Gary Harris: "(The playoffs are) definitely still attainable… who says (the Trail Blazers) can't drop a few games? They've got a tough schedule just like us. Anything can happen. We just have to keep fighting to the end." Nuggets head coach Mike Malone: “I've been in the league a long time, and you expect the unexpected. If we stop believing and letting go of the rope, it could get ugly. I didn't get that sense (Thursday). Our guys are disappointed that we had a bad home loss against New Orleans and a tough loss against a Portland team that is playing very well. We have an opportunity to get back on track." Expect them to ‘get back on track’ tonight in Charlotte! Take the Nuggets. |
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03-30-17 | Nets +6.5 v. Pistons | 89-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#701) I can do this write-up in a single sentence: ‘The Detroit Pistons cannot be laying points.’ Period. Three weeks ago, the Pistons were primed to make their second straight playoff appearance, ending a long string of lottery appearances. Since then, the bottom has dropped out, with eight losses in their last nine games. That stretch includes SU losses as favorites against the Knicks, Magic, Bulls, Raptors and these same Nets that they’ll face tonight. The Pistons last second loss to Miami on Tuesday was the final nail in their coffin, a truly demoralizing defeat for a squad that isn’t handling adversity well these days. So, while the mainstream power rating numbers say that the Pistons MUST be favored this evening, Detroit is a clear fade as a team being asked to win by margin this evening. The Nets have beaten the Pistons in both previous meetings this year and there’s no reason to think they can’t pull off the season sweep tonight! Brooklyn has played their best ball of the year in recent weeks: 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 ballgames. With Jeremy Lin healthy and starting at the point guard position again, the Nets are competitive, not hopeless. And this is a clear ‘step up’ spot for the road underdog, coming off a bad loss at home to Philly earlier in the week. Lin’s quote, following the defeat: “I just felt like we relaxed a little bit after we won three of four, and it's a valuable lesson for us to be able to learn that this league is tough on any given night. I'll be the first person to say that I didn't play nearly close to what I'm capable of, so I have to live with that and just get better for the next one." Expect them to actually be ‘better for the next one’ tonight! Take the Nets. |
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03-29-17 | Heat -3 v. Knicks | Top | 105-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#507) It’s not hard to make a case for betting ON the Miami Heat. After all, Miami is 25-8 SU in their last 33 games, the single best ‘turnaround’ story in the NBA this season, fighting hard for the final playoff spot in the East. Head coach Eric Spoelstra: "Our guys want this so bad. They really care about each other. They've developed such a strong bond. Guys really love each other. They want to play well for each other. It's bigger than just themselves….We feel like there's something special with this group, but nothing's guaranteed. We believe in that energy and that karma. We believe that because we went through so many frustrating games at the end that it developed some toughness.” The Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last eleven tries on the second night of back-2-backs, a testament to this team’s intestinal fortitude. They’re 5-0 ATS on their last five visits to Madison Square Garden, owning this sorry Knicks squad. And the Heat are 5-0 ATS following at pointspread loss, like the one they suffered in Detroit last night; most assuredly a team worth betting ON in a spot like they’re in tonight. It’s not hard to make a case for betting AGAINST the New York Knicks, especially in a game where they’ll need to win – or come pretty darn close – in order to cash the bet. New York beat Detroit on Monday on a rare hot shooting night, hitting 54% from the floor. ‘Melo, following the win: “It was kind of a ‘must win’ for team morale.” Their last set of back-2-back wins came before Christmas, just 12-33 overall and 6-14 at home since that time. Following their last victory, New York lost by double digits as home favorites against Brooklyn. And coming off a ‘must win for team morale’ I have a hard time believing they can match that intensity tonight. The kicker here – what makes this play worthy of Big Ticket status – is the betting market reaction to the announcement that the Knicks would play both Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony tonight, signifying that they supposedly aren’t tanking. But they are tanking! Head coach Jeff Hornacek: “When you're not in the playoffs, everyone looks at the best draft pick you can get. It's hard.” Expect it to be VERY hard for the Knicks to remain competitive in this one for four full quarters. Big Ticket: Take the Heat. |
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03-28-17 | Bucks +4 v. Hornets | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#763) Since Jabari Parker got hurt and Kris Middleton got healthy, the Bucks have turned their season around in a big way, going 11-3 SU in their last 14 ballgames. Parker’s defense was problematic; while Middleton’s offensive playmaking is a difference maker. That’s how the Bucks have notched SU wins on the highway at Sacramento, Portland, the Clippers and the Lakers on their last road trip. Even before this last road trip, the Bucks were consistently winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway, including SU victories at Phoenix, Indiana, Brooklyn and Philly, as well as a tight, spread covering defeat at Cleveland since the beginning of February. Add it all up and we’re talking about one of the better under-the-radar NBA trends: 8-2-1 ATS in their eleven road games during that span. But the Bucks are coming off an ugly home loss to the Bulls, torched by Chicago’s 51% shooting in a 15 point defeat. Rookie of the Year candidate Malcolm Brogdon knows what’s at stake here: “We put ourselves in a great spot the last couple weeks. We want to stay in this spot and possibly put ourselves in a better position, so we've got to finish out strong." With a 5-1 SU mark in their last six tries off a loss, the Bucks are ‘live dogs’ here! Charlotte was a playoff team last year, finishing with 48 wins and the #6 seed. The markets still remember and respect that team, in some ways overshadowing the 33-40 squad from this year in the betting world. The Hornets did their best to blow a 25 point second half lead against a Suns team playing on the second night of back-2-backs in their last game, on the heels of a defensive no-show against the Cavs in their previous contest. My power rating number has this game priced right around pick ‘em, offering us legitimate value with wiseguy steam showing for Charlotte in early betting action today. Take the Bucks. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Georgia Tech -2 | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Georgia Tech (#778) To put this pointspread in it’s proper perspective, note the relative strengths of schedule for these two teams this year. If you average every opponent that Cal State Bakersfield played and compared them with every opponent that Georgia Tech played, the Yellow Jackets average opponent was more than 9 points per game better than the average Roadrunners opponent. Georgia Tech played 15 games against opponents who reached the NCAA Tournament. Cal State Bakersfield? They lost to SMU and Arizona in non-conference play, and lost two out of three meetings with WAC auto-bid winner New Mexico State. Georgia Tech is more battle tested, plain and simple. Cal State Bakersfield put on an impressive run to get here, winning SU as underdogs at Cal, Colorado State and UT Arlington, all pretty good teams playing at home. How did the Roadrunners do it? Simple – they got hot shooting the three ball, hitting 50% of their three point attempts; making ten per game. For a team that averaged six made three pointers on 33% three point shooting through their first 31 games, savvy bettors should NOT expect this hot shooting streak to continue indefinitely. And, after jumping out to big halftime leads in all three NIT games to get here, the Roadrunners are not a team I trust to hang tough in a tight, competitive contest throughout. Georgia Tech’s defense is no joke. The only teams in the country to rank higher than Josh Pastner’s squad in defensive efficiency were all elite NCAA Tourney teams: Gonzaga, Virginia, West Virginia, Florida and South Carolina. That’s bad news for a Bakersfield team that still only ranks #244 in the country in offensive efficiency even after their three hot shooting wins to get here. Take Georgia Tech. |
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03-27-17 | Grizzlies -6 v. Kings | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#741) Sacramento did something pretty unusual on Sunday, to put it mildly. Trailing by 18 points at home against the Clippers with just five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, the Kings put together a 22-3 run to close out the game, stealing a one point victory. To put that comeback in perspective, NBA teams up by 18+ with 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter were 6746-1 SU over the last 20 years, prior to yesterday’s game. Now the Kings have to do it again. This team is 3-12 SU in their last 15 ballgames since dealing away the face of the franchise, DeMarcus Cousins. Guard Darren Collison: “People don't understand how hard it is to be in our shoes and come to work every day with the circumstances we have dealt with.” And it’s surely worth noting that Sacramento hasn’t covered a pointspread on the second night of back-2-backs since before the Cousins deal, 0-4 ATS in their last four tries. This is a bottom feeder team coming off a miracle win playing on the second of back-2-backs, an easy fade in this situation. Memphis has lost all three games on their current road trip – it’s ‘circle the wagons’ time for David Fizdale’s squad. Of course, there’s no shame in losing at San Antonio or at Golden State; both competitive games in their last two contests. And those losses should have the desired effect here – big time intensity against a team that can’t handle it. Each of the Grizzlies last 13 wins – dating back to January -- has come by seven points or more. When this team wins, they win by margin, and this is a game they should win with relative ease. Take the Grizzlies. |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina OVER 159 | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 25 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina – Kentucky OVER (#723-724) Here’s the quote from Wildcats head coach John Calipari, prior to the UCLA game: “We’ve got really fast players, and so you try to play to your strengths. But a lot of people have slowed us down. They’ve not let us play fast. Early in the year, we were playing way faster than we are now. Some of that is because of how people are playing us. I’m not sure UCLA will try to slow you down. Let’s go. Let’s play to 120. I don’t think either one of us are going to change how we play. It’s too late in the season.” The game against the Bruins was the single highest totaled game of the entire NCAA Tournament, and despite reaching 161 points, it stayed Under the closing total. Now, in another rematch from a VERY high scoring game earlier in the season is totaled low enough to expect Calipari’s ‘look for a very fast pace’ quote to cash an Over bet for us on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams really was a track meet; a 103-100 Kentucky victory in regulation! Neither team generated turnovers with their defensive pressure; both squads had open looks throughout and they knocked them down. Still, the game wasn’t a foul fest ( a combined 34 made free throws) and it still flew Over the total by 32 points; a game that closed with a total of 171. This total is a dozen points lower, with a different level of pressure compared to that early December matchup. Frankly, the 12 point differential between the total in the first meeting and this one is waaaay to much of an adjustment to make. North Carolina point guard Joel Berry looked back at 100% after an injury last weekend, hanging 26 of the Tar Heels 92 points on Butler Friday Night; by far the most points Butler had allowed all year – including overtime games! Roy Williams squad has been trending Over of late, cashing three Overs in their last four postseason games; all totaled in the 150’s. The Tar Heels are the best team in the country on the offensive glass, leading to easy putbacks without burning much clock. And defensive rebounding is not a major area of strength for Calipari’s squad. Expect a frenetic pace, excellent offensive efficiency and enough easy looks to send this game Over the total with room to spare. Take the Over. |
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03-26-17 | Thunder +7 v. Rockets | 125-137 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma City (#707) This is not a ‘lay the points’ series, to put it mildly. The three previous meetings this year have been decided by 2, 3 and 2 points. All four meetings last year were decided by eight points or less. Either team favored by -2 or higher in this series hasn’t cashed a winning bet since the 2013-14 campaign. Then we have the MVP award situation, with James Harden and Russell Westbrook as the top two candidates. It’s not hard to picture these two superstars trading buckets back and forth in the fourth quarter; a classic late season duel in which laying points with the favorite is NOT the way to go. Oklahoma City is as fresh as they’ve been since the All Star Break. They’ve been off since Wednesday, playing only their seventh game in 15 days. The Rockets had to rally from behind to knock off New Orleans on Friday night, and they lost key contributor Ryan Anderson to an ankle injury in the process, out for the indefinite future. The loss of Anderson is a HUGE deal in this ballgame, because the Thunder are the best rebounding team in the NBA when it comes to snaring the highest percentage of available missed shots. With Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Domantas Sabonis all manning the low post, along with the best rebounding guard in the NBA (Westbrook), this is one game where the absence of Anderson really matters! Houston has been struggling in this pointspread range since the All Star Break. The Rockets failed to cover -8 against the Nuggets, -7 against the Cavs, -8.5 against the Jazz and -9.5 against the Pacers on this floor in recent weeks. They’re 0-4 ATS following their last four victories, coming off that win over the Pelicans. Facing an OKC team that has been consistently undervalued in recent weeks (6-1 SU & ATS L7 games), I have no hesitation taking the points with the Thunder this afternoon. Take the Thunder |
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03-25-17 | Raptors +2 v. Mavs | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#507) The Mavericks have alternated wins and losses over their past six games, with all three defeats during that span coming in blowout fashion, including a 22 point loss against these same Raptors in Toronto. Even after the hard fought two point win over the Clippers on Thursday, the Mavs are still 3.5 games behind Denver and two games behind Portland for the #8 seed in the West; facing an uphill battle to reach the postseason. Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle knows that even an #8 seed isn’t going to accomplish anything other than getting his team the opportunity to get swept by the Warriors in the first round. That’s why he’s adjusted his rotations in recent games, looking to get his youngsters some playing time. Seth Curry is being given an opportunity to succeed at the point guard position instead of Yogi Ferrell, who has been in that role for the last few months. Nerlens Noel moved into the starting lineup on Thursday as well. Carlisle’s quote doesn’t sound like the quote from a coach who’s team is favored against a playoff bound foe tonight: "We're going to give this (new lineup) a look. I don't know how many games it's going to be. It may be the rest of the year, it may not. It may be a couple -- we'll see. There's a certain aptitude and understanding of the game that goes with being a point guard. He's (Curry) demonstrated those abilities on a lot of occasions, but until we put the ball in his hands and really take a look at it, we're not going to know for sure. Now is the time to do it." Toronto rallied from 15 points down to beat the Heat on Thursday; their fourth straight victory. Head coach Dwane Casey liked his team’s mentality in that come-from-behind win: “It talks about toughness, heart. Our give-a-crap level is pretty high, and it's one of those things where when you count us out, we find a way. My thing is just find five men who are going to play hard.” Wrong team favored here! Take the Raptors. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 146 | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Xavier – Gonzaga UNDER (#513-514) Gonzaga’s offense hasn’t worked in the Big Dance. Point guard Nigel Williams-Goss – the WCC Player of the Year during the regular season -- is mired in a nasty slump. He’s shot a woeful 12-42 in the tournament so far, with nearly as many turnovers (nine) as assists (ten). When your point guard is struggling at this time of the season, it’s a real bugaboo to overcome. No surprise, then, that the Zags have been held in the 60’s twice in three tournament games, staying Under the total with plenty of room to spare both times. In fact, Gonzaga has been trending Under all month, 6-2 to the Under in their last eight games overall. It’s surely worth noting that both Over cashes came in games totaled below 140. Xavier can be expected to play zone defense for extended stretches this evening, forcing the Zags to hit perimeter jumpers from the soft spots in the zone. But with a struggling point guard, facing much tougher defensive competition than they saw in the WCC this year, the Zags shots just aren’t falling right now; averaging less than five made three pointers per game over their last five contests. But the Zags have been able to win their first three games of this tournament to survive to the Elite Eight because their defense is truly elite, ranked #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency and #1 in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Musketeers have shot ‘lights out’ in this tourney; hitting 50% or better in all three games, despite the season ending injury to their own point guard, Edmond Summer, in the heart of Big East Conference play. I do NOT expect Xavier to approach or exceed 50% shooting again on Saturday facing this defense. Xavier has cashed only one Over ticket in seven games since March 1st. These two teams have met twice this decade, with the two games finishing with 137 and 118 points, despite late scramble points in both contests, cashing Under tickets each time. This ain’t no shootout…… Take the Under. |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida -2 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Florida (#872) Wisconsin can’t play any better than they did last weekend in Buffalo. They averaged a ridiculous 1.31 points per possession while knocking off Virginia Tech, then followed that up with a 53% shooting effort to beat the defending champs, Villanova. Given the success of the Badgers in recent tournaments (their four seniors – Bronson Koenig, Nigel Hayes, Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown – are a combined 13-3 in NCAA Tournament games), it’s easy to understand why the markets are affording this team so much respect. But the Badgers do not match up well against Florida, and they’ll be hard pressed to come close to matching last weekend’s stellar efforts. Wisconsin doesn’t hit free throws (64% for the season, just 26-41 in the first two games of the Big Dance). They’ve been outrebounded consistently down the stretch, losing the battle of the boards in five of their last nine games. And the Badgers lack the athletic playmakers that Florida has an ample supply of; the type of playmakers that have given Wisconsin trouble in the majority of their eight previous losses this season. Florida hits their free throws at a 71% clip for the season. They’re a dominant rebounding team as well, winning the battle of the boards in each of their last five contests. Every Gators loss this season came against a quality foe – three times to Vanderbilt, then Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida State, Duke and Gonzaga, arguably all better teams than the one they’ll face on Friday. It’s surely worth noting that Florida didn’t lose contact in any of those defeats, each and every one of them coming by ten points or less. Wisconsin lives and dies by the three point shot and Ethan Happ’s ability to create good looks in the low post. But the Gators are elite defenders on the perimeter, ranked among the Top 10 teams in the country, allowing only 30% shooting from beyond the arc for the season. And Happ won’t have an easy time of it against shot blocker extraordinaire Kevarrius Hayes. In fact, Florida ranks among the nation’s leaders on defense in shooting percentage allowed, blocked shots and turnovers forced; arguably the best defensive team still standing in the tourney. Gators junior wing Devin Robinson is skyrocketing up NBA draft boards. Shooting guard KeVuaghn Allen is primed for a much better weekend this week after a woeful 3-21 shooting effort last weekend. Senior point guard Kasey Hill can hang tough with Koenig. The Gators have more depth than the Badgers – no Florida starter averages more than 28 minutes per game, with a rotation that still goes nine deep even after the injury loss of big man John Egbunu. This is a VERY cheap price to lay with the superior team, making this game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take Florida. |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Baylor | 70-50 | Win | 100 | 55 h 12 m | Show | |
Take South Carolina (#873) My clients and I cashed a (lucky) winning bet against Baylor over the weekend. This time around, the anti-Baylor fade shouldn’t need a last second putback to cover the number! Let me start with my anti-Baylor analysis from the USC game. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities. “Baylor is a classic case of a team that peaked in January. Remember, this team was #1 in the country for a few days after starting 15-0. Obviously, they are not the #1 team in the country, or anything close. And from a value standpoint, the Bears have been a nightmare for their supporters since that hot start, below 40% ATS since the calendar turned to 2017.” Baylor is coming off a weekend of near peak offensive performance. They shot 54% from the floor, hit 30 of 34 attempts from the free throw line and finished +28 on the glass. Yet despite those dominant stats, the Bears could have easily gone 0-2 ATS were it not for a late 11-4 run in the final 2 ½ minutes against New Mexico State. I expect the Bears to be hard pressed to match those offensive accomplishments here; bad news for a program with a consistent track record of postseason failure under head coach Scott Drew. You could make a legitimate argument that South Carolina was the single best team in the NCAA Tournament last weekend. The Gamecocks have played elite level defense all year under Frank Martin, but other than Sindarius Thornwell, their offense spent the season stuck in the mud. But there was nothing fraudulent about their impressive victories over Marquette and Duke last weekend, getting four players into the double digit scoring column in the opener, then five players to double digits in the upset over Duke. This Gamecocks team is an undervalued commodity right now following a late season slump in SEC play, but they’re every bit as good as the favorite in this game. Take South Carolina. |
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03-24-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Magic | 87-115 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#857) This bet comes down to a single question: Have the Pistons thrown in the towel? Based on everything I’ve read, the answer is ‘No’. Yes, Stan Van Gundy’s squad has suffered through a really rough stretch of games over the past couple of weeks. Two weeks ago, after rallying from 15 points down to beat the defending champion Cavaliers and knocking off the Knicks in their next game, Detroit was in position to sneak into the playoffs. But they’ve lost five of six since that time, including a 32 point loss in the rematch against Cleveland and a particularly ugly 22 point loss at Chicago on Wednesday. Van Gundy: “I think it’s pretty clear from these six games, I’m not finding the answers and not doing a very good job. It starts with me. I’m the person in charge. I selected everybody in that locker room. I’m the one that wanted them in there. I decide who plays. I put lineups out there. I decide on defensive coverages. I call plays. It’s all on me. I’m not running from that. Right now, we’ve gotta find a way to get it back……It’s like we took that one hit (against the Cavs) and have not recovered at all. We haven’t played a good game since then. This is six bad games in a row. It’s mind-boggling to me that six games ago we were playing OK and at .500, and now not even competitive.” The Pistons still have plenty to play for, sitting only one game out of the #8 seed in the East with ten games remaining. Van Gundy moved Ish Smith back into the starting point guard role last time out; not a bad decision in this bettor’s opinion. And Detroit is facing a team tonight that they have dominated, winning every matchup with the Magic in Orlando both SU and ATS over the past two years, part of a 7-1 SU & ATS run against them. The Magic blew yet another game in the fourth quarter, losing to Charlotte on Wednesday. The loss was very typical of their season; a squad that just can’t get a key stop or a key bucket on anything resembling a consistent basis during crunch time of tight games. That’s a big part of the reason why the Magic have the single weakest homecourt edge in the NBA, with just 10 pointspread covers in 36 previous home games. Head coach Frank Vogel said his team was ‘hurting’ following that fourth quarter collapse against the Pelicans, not a likely candidate to bounce back strong against a Pistons squad primed to play with focus tonight. Take the Pistons. |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Gonzaga | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia (#815) Gonzaga hasn’t seen much ball pressure from opposing defenses this season. They played in the West Coast Conference, not exactly a hotbed of defensive excellence. The vast majority of their non-conference slate came against teams that don’t force turnovers in bunches. So when we look at the Zags struggles against ball pressure teams in recent weeks, it does not bode well for their chances to beat West Virginia by margin on Thursday. Twice in the last month, Gonzaga has faced an opponent that has put pressure on the ball, looking to generate turnovers. The first time it happened, BYU rallied from 14 points down to win by 8 at Gonzaga, covering the spread by 29 points in the process. The second time it happened, against Northwestern last weekend, the Zags nearly blew a 21 point second half lead, completely falling apart on the offensive end of the court. The numbers do not lie. West Virginia ranks #1 in the country in the percentage of opponents’ possessions that end in a turnover and #3 in the county in the percentage of opponents possessions which end with a steal. They aren’t BYU or Northwestern on defense, yet the Cougars and Wildcats lesser defenses gave the Zags fits while forcing turnovers in bunches. If the Zags had 28 turnovers compared to only 19 assists vs. BYU and Northwestern, we can imagine what this offense will look like against the best pressure defense in the country! West Virginia spent a good portion of the season struggling to hit shots on the offensive end of the court. That changed last weekend, giving this team a strong jolt of confidence heading into their matchup with the Zags. Junior point guard Jevon Carter: “All year we've been telling ourselves that we got the best group of guards in the country and we truly believe that. Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey, following the Mountaineers win over the Irish last weekend: “I didn't expect them to shoot it from outside as well. I thought we could play a little more zone and make them make more threes, and they made every big 3-point shot. And Carter is a big-time winner. What a stud guard he is. He's fabulous. He's just a veteran winner in college basketball." Surging with offensive confidence, if the Mountaineers hit shots again this weekend, they’ll be Final Four bound. Meanwhile, Gonzaga continues to be saddled with a ‘pointspread tax’ from the betting marketplace. The Zags spent months as the #1 team in the country AND the #1 pointspread team in the country, a most rare occurrence – the best spread teams don’t tend to be higher profile squads. Now that the markets have finally caught up and made a big enough adjustment, the Zags are facing the other side of that equation. The time to make money betting on Gonzaga was November, December and January. It’s surely worth noting that the Zags five ATS losses in their last eight games were more losses than they had ATS in their first 27 lined contests. Take West Virginia. |
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03-22-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Thunder | 97-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#759) Let me start with an excerpt from my pro-Philly write-up from earlier in the week, when the Sixers covered wire-2-wire in an OT loss at Orlando. Numbers have been slightly adjusted to reflect current realities. “The 76ers continue to be the gift that keeps on giving, the single best pointspread team in the NBA this year. They’ve covered seven in a row overall, including strong road efforts like a SU win at LA against the Lakers, an OT loss at Portland and a two point loss at Golden State against the mighty Warriors. This Rick Carlisle quote is worth noting after the Sixers destroyed Dallas last weekend: “Philadelphia has been one of the most fun teams to watch this year for me. I love the way they move the ball. I love how hard they play." While Philly continues to play hard every night and cover pointspreads better than any other team in the league, OKC is in a major flat spot tonight, primed for a lethargic effort. OKC is coming off an ugly beatdown at home in a statement game against Golden State. After tonight’s game, they get a three day break – their first since the All Star Game – followed by another statement game at Houston in national TV action on Sunday. It would be very hard for this team NOT to look past Philly this evening, bad news for any double digit favorite. Take the 76ers. |
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03-21-17 | Clippers -9 v. Lakers | 133-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Take the LA Clippers (#665) Any team that is interested in playing 48 minutes of solid basketball can beat the Lakers by whatever margin they want to! And make no mistake about it – the Clippers are interested tonight! This has been a remarkably one sided series in recent seasons. The Clips won the first two meetings this year by 16 and 9 points. They swept the season series last year, with winning margins of 10, 22, 12 and 10, on the heels of a 4-0 season sweep in 2014-15 that included a pair of 25+ point blowouts. In the battle for LA, after decades of futility, the Clippers are the dominant team, and they aim to keep it that way! The Clips have played extended stretches of mediocre basketball this season, dealing with extended injury losses to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, their two best players. They went 3-9 ATS through a dozen games after the All Star Break, getting Paul back in the lineup and acclimated with his teammates. That was then. This is now. The Clippers have absolutely dominated their last two opponents, beating the Cavs by 30 and following that up with a win over the Knicks in a game that they led by 25 going into the fourth quarter before Doc Rivers emptied his bench, keeping everybody’s legs fresh for the second of back-2-backs tonight. This is an emerging, value laden team right now, playing with intensity down the stretch. The Lakers are anything but an emerging, value laden team right now; in full-on tank mode. They have one win in their last 14 games dating back to before the All Star Break while losing seven times by a dozen points or more; a team that has all but given up on the defensive end of the court. The numbers don’t lie. Since the All Star Break, LA has allowed a truly woeful 113.8 points per 100 possessions. The worst defensive team of the last decade –the 2009 Sacramento Kings—allowed 111.9. That’s how bad the Lakers are right now. Coming off a pair of relatively competitive losses, look for the Lakers to sink down to their normal level of play against a motivated foe tonight. Take the Clippers. |
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03-21-17 | Bucks +4.5 v. Blazers | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#663) The Bucks have shown real ‘bet-on’ potential in recent weeks; playing their best ball of the season right now! Since a 1-3 stretch immediately following the All Star Break, Milwaukee is 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, including a pair of SU wins as underdogs against the Clippers. They are 2-2 on this current West Coast trip, but they’re coming off an ugly 25 point loss at Golden State over the weekend. Rookie guard Malcolm Brogdon, following that loss to the Warriors: “There are no excuses, but we were fatigued. If your second game of a back-to-back is against one of the very best teams, it's tough. Fatigue plays a factor, but it's not the reason we lost. Guys were just a little bit drained, especially playing a team that moves as much and passes as much (as the Warriors). It was a test.” The Bucks fatigue factor on Saturday was very real, playing their sixth game in nine days and 10th game in 15 days. But now they’ve had two full days to rest up for Portland, and they’re locked in a tight playoff race for the final spots in the Eastern Conference. I love this ‘bet-on’ quote from guard Matthew Dellavedova with two games remaining on this West Coast swing: “We're not aiming for .500 (on the trip). We want to keep getting better." Milwaukee’s superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, is coming off a dismal game against the Warriors, held to only nine points. Meanwhile, Portland’s superstar, Damian Lillard, scored a league high 35 points per game on 55% shooting (59% from three point range) while hitting all 36 of his free throw attempts last week. I’d give Giannis the ‘upside’ edge tonight! Portland is in a ‘fat and happy’ spot, returning home off a 4-1 mark on their five game road trip, including three straight wins to close out the roadie, all as underdogs. But we’re talking about a team who’s defensive deficiencies have been extremely problematic for them in the home favorite’s role; cashing just once in six tries. Even that one cover came with an asterisk – it was against the league worst Nets, and Brooklyn hung 116 on the Blazers, overcome only because Portland hit 16-25 from three point range. I’m not expecting a three point shooting night like that here! Take the Bucks. |
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03-21-17 | Bulls v. Raptors -6.5 | 120-122 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#652) This is very much a statement game for Toronto. The Raptors have lost 11 straight meetings against the Bulls, despite the fact that the Raptors have been the better of these two teams for the vast majority of this losing streak. Toronto head coach Dwane Casey following the Raptors dominating win over the Pacers on Sunday: “From start to finish, I thought it was a solid contribution offensively and defensively. Set the tone defensively from start to finish from the jump ball. That's the way we have to play and continue. Whatever we have to do to get this (monkey) off our back against Chicago, they beat us 11 in a row and that has to stop. Collectively, whatever we have to do defensively and offensively to set the tone, we have to do that." The Raptors have been languishing in the doldrums since winning their first three after the All Star Break, just 5-5 SU with a sub .500 ATS mark. But they’ve played much better on both ends of the court since DeMarre Carroll returned to the lineup last weekend, connecting on a dozen three pointers against Indiana – their first double digit three pointer game in the last seven contests. This team is an undervalued commodity right now, and they’re coming in to this game with a real chip on their collective shoulders. The Bulls are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture right now, and with Dwayne Wade’s season ending injury, Chicago does not have the feel of a team primed for a strong late season run. The Bulls are coming off a solid win against Utah, but this team has consistently been unable to string good performances together, without a single win or even a pointspread cover coming off a victory since February. Take the Raptors. |
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03-20-17 | 76ers +5 v. Magic | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#601) I can do this write-up in a single sentence: The Orlando Magic cannot be favored, especially coming off a rare SU win! The results don’t lie. Orlando had a couple of short winning streaks (two and three games) in November and December. The last time the Magic won back-2-back games came right after Christmas, nearly three full months ago. Orlando off a single win since December 27th? 0-9 SU, with recent losses coming by 40, 28, 27 and 11 points (to the Knicks!) – non-competitive efforts. Coming off a rare win in Phoenix, the Magic are ‘bet-against’ here! Orlando as a favorite has been every bit as bad as Orlando off a win. My numbers show the Magic with the single weakest homecourt edge in the NBA, with just 10 pointspread covers in 34 previous home games. No surprise, then, that Orlando is 3-12 ATS in their 15 tries as chalk this season – they’ve covered only one pointspread ALL YEAR when laying -5 or more like they are tonight. They’ve lost straight up in each of their last four tries when laying -2 or higher and haven’t covered a single pointspread at -2 or higher since that two game winning streak over Christmas. The 76ers continue to be the gift that keeps on giving, the single best pointspread team in the NBA this year. They’ve covered six in a row overall, including strong road efforts like a SU win at LA against the Lakers, an OT loss at Portland and a two point loss at Golden State against the mighty Warriors. This Rick Carlisle quote is worth noting after the Sixers destroyed Dallas over the weekend: “Philadelphia has been one of the most fun teams to watch this year for me. I love the way they move the ball. I love how hard they play." Those are NOT the type of quotes I’ve been reading about the Magic from opposing head coaches……Take the 76ers. |
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03-20-17 | UCF v. Illinois State UNDER 128 | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Illinois State – UCF UNDER (#615-616) If you’ve never heard or seen UCF 7-6, 300 pound low post stud Tacko Fall, tune in to ESPN tonight and Watch this shotblocking behemoth disrupt the Illinois State offense. UCF is the #1 team in the country in defensive field goal percentage allowed and #6 nationally in scoring defense. Fall was the AAC Defensive Player of the Year while setting a school record for blocked shots in a season. Illinois State knows what they’re up against. Head coach Dan Muller: “It's impressive how much he's improved in the last two years. It's not like he's this big guy who can't move. He's a good player. It's hard to simulate in practice.” Redbirds junior forward MiKyle McIntosh: “I've never played against anyone that tall. It's kind of cool. But at the same time you have to come out and play basketball. You can't worry about it. It will affect your shot if you keep worrying he's going to block it or alter it." The only problem with that theory is that Fall is worth worrying about! Illinois State faced an uptempo foe in the first round of the NIT, draining 13 three pointers while hitting 53% overall from the field in a rout over UC Irvine. Expect a very different pace tonight between these two plodding, methodical halfcourt teams. And it’s certainly not like the Redbirds are defensive slouches! Illinois State, like UCF, is a Top 10 team nationally in both field goal percentage defense and scoring defense. Muller’s squad is 9-3 to the Under in their last dozen games. Every one of those contests was totaled in a similar range as tonight’s contest; all between 119.5 and 137.5. First one to 60 wins here, in a game that has ‘defensive struggle’ written all over it! Take the Under. |
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03-19-17 | USC +7.5 v. Baylor | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take USC (#725) In just about every recent season we’ve seen one team ride the wave from a ‘play in’ game victory all the way to the Sweet 16. And USC certainly has that potential here, with the current seven point spread offering us a legitimate bargain to support the Trojans on Sunday in a play worthy of Big Ticket status! Baylor is a classic case of a team that peaked in January. Remember, this team was #1 in the country for a few days after starting 15-0. Obviously, they are not the #1 team in the country, or anything close. And from a value standpoint, the Bears have been a nightmare for their supporters since that hot start, a 40% ATS squad since the calendar turned to 2017. Coming off a game in which they shot 57% from the floor and 90% from the free throw line while finishing +17 on the glass – yet the game was still tied after halftime – I’m expecting the Bears to have a much tougher time here as they step up in class. And for a program with a consistent track record of failure in March under Scott Drew, expect the Bears to have their fair share of struggles in Tulsa on Sunday USC has stepped up in class plenty of late, facing UCLA, Arizona and Oregon twice each down the stretch of their PAC-12 campaign. And this game sets up well for the Trojans. They didn’t burn all their energy in Vegas last weekend, losing to UCLA by a bucket in their second game. They had time to physically recover before their flight to Dayton for the Play in Game. Their win over SMU was another confidence boost for a team with great potential, and now, after the whirlwind of the past week, they get normal prep time without travel to face the Bears. Here’s what SMU’s Tim Jankovich said following the Mustangs loss to the Trojans on Friday, unable to penetrate the USC zone defense: “They've got great size. That's one of the real factors in how good your zone is, and they are very big, very, very big, and they're very athletic. I thought it was the most active they've played it in any of the games that we watched. So give them credit for that." Size is Baylor’s biggest edge, with 6-10 Johnathan Motley and seven footer Jo Lual-Acuil manning the low post and leading to a +8 rebounding margin average for the full season. But with Bennie Boatwright, Chimizie Metu, and Nick Rakocevic all standing at 6-10 or taller, the Trojans can bang with the Bears in the paint; start to finish. USC head coach Andy Enfield is the antithesis of Scott Drew when it come to tournament settings; a coach with a great track record of success, particularly as an underdog. Enfield took Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 – that’s how he got the USC job – with a 6-0 ATS run from the start of the Atlantic Sun tournament until their Big Dance exit, cashing four times as underdogs. Enfield has gone 7-3 ATS in postseason play with USC, including a 5-2 ATS mark as an underdog. In USC’s last two tries as a dog, they covered wire-2-wire, losing by only 2 to UCLA and beating SMU straight up. Both of those teams are better than Baylor…… Big Ticket: Take USC. |
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03-19-17 | Michigan +3 v. Louisville | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#721) To call John Beilein an elite level tournament coach is something of an understatement. Prior to the Wolverines ‘bad beat’ spread loss to Oklahoma State on a buzzer beater three pointer on Friday, Beilein was 19-7 ATS in the Big Dance, including an 11-5 ATS mark at Michigan. And that’s not even counting Michigan’s success in the Big 10 tourney (4-0 SU and ATS this year, 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS since 2013). I want our money ON John Beilein in short turnaround tournament settings, plain and simple. Rick Pitino has ‘elite level coach’ plastered all over him by the national media. Pitino in the postseason? He’s 0-2 ATS this year and just 3-5 ATS in the Big Dance since Louisville cut down the nets against Michigan in the 2013 national title game. That Louisville team was loaded with NBA talent. This year’s team is not – Michigan arguably has the more talented roster here. Louisville does two things very well. They dominate the glass, winning the rebounding battle by margin on a consistent basis. And their pressure defense forces turnovers in bunches, leading to easy fast break buckets. Louisville is likely to win the battle of the boards here – rebounding is not an area of strength for this Michigan squad. But the Wolverines just beat Oklahoma State despite a -18 mark on the boards. They beat Wisconsin despite a -6 and beat Minnesota despite a -16. And that’s just in their last three games! Michigan has been overcoming negative rebounding differentials all year; not a deal breaker when they face a strong rebounding opponent. The Wolverines certainly have the type of guard play I’m looking for when it comes to overcoming the Louisville defensive pressure. Michigan turns the ball over less than nine times per game, with Derrick Walton Jr and Zak Irvin both making excellent decisions with the basketball; an elite guard duo. I’ve yet to see a team all year rattle those veteran guards. When Louisville gets forced into a halfcourt game -- without generating easy transition buckets – they have struggled repeatedly this season. The Cardinals are not a great offensive team, by any stretch of the imagination. They don’t hit free throws – another Michigan area of strength – and their own ball handling is a long way from being elite. Look for Michigan’s remarkable run to last for at least one more game…at least from a pointspread perspective! Take Michigan. |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10 | 73-79 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Gonzaga (#530) We’ve got a clear ‘Bet-on’ vs. a clear ‘bet against’ here, making this double digit pointspread look rather cheap to this bettor. Let’s start with the ‘bet-against’ element of the equation. Northwestern, obviously, has no history of making deep tournament runs – in any tournament. These same kids got bounced out of the Big 10 tourney in their first game in 2015 and 2016, winning only one tourney game in each of the two years before that. Their last trip to the NIT, in 2012, ended following a single, two point win. And yet, here they are this year, coming off a gift victory over Vanderbilt, now playing their fifth game in the last ten days – their most grueling stretch of the season – and stepping way up in class against a team with something to prove. We saw Northwestern in a similar spot last weekend after knocking off Maryland in the Big 10 tourney. Against Wisconsin in their next game, the Wildcats lost contact; a 28 point defeat that was essentially over by halftime. And I sure as hell don’t want the Wildcats 48 hours after their gift win against Vandy, with ‘we’ve accomplished something’ quotes coming from head coach Chris Collins. While Northwestern is fat and happy, Gonzaga is hungry and primed to make a serious statement following their lethargic opening round win over a bottom tier foe. The Zags hit less than 40% from the floor, had more turnovers than assists and made only 8 of 18 free throw attempts vs. South Dakota State. Point guard Nigel Williams Goss: “We were able to grind out a tough game, not a pretty game. It feels good when you win a game when you know you didn't play your best." This is a motivated favorite with an elite level ‘A’ game primed to dismantle the outmanned Wildcats. Take Gonzaga. |
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03-17-17 | Wichita State v. Dayton +6 | 64-58 | Push | 0 | 51 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Dayton (#832) KISS write-up here – I’m keeping this one simple. While the talking heads on TV were ranting and raving about how Wichita State was criminally underseeded (which they are), nobody was saying a word about the Dayton Flyers. First, let me talk about the Shockers for a moment. Yes, Wichita State is a very good team. But this was no banner year for the Missouri Valley Conference, to put it mildly. There’s a reason that Illinois State, who went 17-1 in conference play, didn’t get an at-large bid. Against other Big Dance teams in non-conference play, the Shockers went 0-3 SU and ATS. And it’s surely worth noting the pointspreads in those games – Wichita was FAVORED over Louisville, Michigan State and Oklahoma State, just like they are favored here. There are no pointspread bargains when it comes to Wichita State this year, plain and simple. That’s not the case for Dayton! The Flyers have stepped up in class remarkably well this year, suffering only one pointspread loss as an underdog ALL YEAR. Even that loss comes with an asterisk – it was back before Thanksgiving when they were 2.5 point underdogs against St Mary’s and lost by four. Of the Flyers seven losses this year, six of them came by six points or less; a team that executes their offense extremely well down the stretch of tight games . Against this pointspread, the Flyers would be 29-1-1 ATS this year. Dayton is deep. They’re athletic. They’re well coached. They’re veteran. They value possessions. They play sticky defense. Sounds a lot like Wichita, right? Flyers head coach Archie Miller is a ‘bet-on’ guy in the Big Dance, especially off a bad loss to Syracuse in the first round last year. After back-2-back Sweet 16 runs over the past two years, Gregg Marshall’s squad will be hard pressed to survive and advance at all, let alone winning this one by margin. Take Dayton. |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton | 84-72 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Rhode Island (#843) The Bluejays were a legitimately elite team for the first two months of the season, going 18-1 out of the gate. That stretch included wins over Wisconsin, Ole Miss, NC State (before their collapse), Nebraska (before their collapse), Arizona State, Seton Hall, Providence and Butler among others. At the time, after all of those impressive victories, Creighton was power rated like a juggernaut. Then point guard Mo Watson got hurt (8.5 assists per game, by far the #1 assist man in the nation!) and the Bluejays season went south in a hurry. Creighton went 7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games. And it’s surely worth noting who those five of those six pointspread covers came against: DePaul (twice), St John’s, Georgetown and Xavier right after the Musketeers suffered a massive injury loss themselves – all bad teams. The Blue Jays last win against a top tier foe came back in January, but all of those impressive early season victories are still on their resume and still inflating both their seeding and their power rating for pointspreads. Rhode Island is on the other end of the equation. The Rams did not play their best basketball, struggling SU and ATS early and often in November, December and into January. Key contributors like senior low post stud Hassan Martin, junior point guard Jarvis Garrett missed time, and the team didn’t immediately jell upon either guys’ return to the lineup. That was then. This is now. Unburdened by any inflated pointspreads due to their mediocrity for months, Danny Hurley’s squad finally put it together down the stretch: 8-0 SU 6-2 ATS in their last eight games; 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14. This was a fringe Top 25 squad coming into the season, playing at that level here in March. Creighton is not. In a near pick ‘em priced game, that matters! Take Rhode Island. |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon OVER 151.5 | Top | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 46 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oregon – Iona OVER (#841-842) If you watched the NIT openers on Tuesday, you saw Ole Miss racing up and down the floor against Monmouth, hanging 91 points on the Hawks, shooting 52% from the field in the process; a game that flew Over the total by margin. What does that have to do with Oregon – Iona? Plenty! Iona and Monmouth were among the top few teams in the MAAC again this year. Iona’s defense is very comparable to Monmouth’s – weak. Their only shot blocker, Taylor Bessick, gets off the bench for only 14 minutes per game. They don’t force turnovers with ball pressure, they give up more than their fair share of transition buckets. Head coach Tim Cluess is clue-less in the Big Dance, a the Gaels have yet to cover a pointspread during his tenure thanks to those consistent defensive woes. In their opener last year the Gaels hung 81 on Iowa State…and lost by double digits, failing to cover the spread, in a game that flew over the total by double digits. In their NIT opener in 2015, they allowed 88 to Rhode Island, a game that flew Over the total by double digits. It was the same story in the NIT in 2014 (Louisiana Tech scored 89, the game flew Over by double digits) and the NCAA Tournament in 2013 (95 allowed to Ohio State, game flew Over by double digits). Look for Oregon’s remarkably efficient offense to run circles around the Gaels – the Ducks are a legit threat to hit 90 or higher in this ballgame. Iona has made the postseason every year despite these defensive deficiencies because Cluess sure knows how to coach offense – his teams put the biscuit in the basket, with four double digit scorers again this year (and two more who average just under ten points per game). And when we talk about impact injuries on the defensive end of the court, the Ducks loss of shot blocking center Chris Boucher really stands out. Boucher was not a great offensive player, but he was a low post difference maker on defense. In their first game without him in the lineup, the Ducks flew Over the total by more than 20 points in the PAC-12 championship game. Late season impact injuries on defense create confusion in the betting markets; markets that react more to full season stats than to any guesswork when it comes to how an injury will affect a total. That gives us a strong ‘positive expectation’ opportunity here, worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Over. |
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03-17-17 | Seton Hall +1 v. Arkansas | 71-77 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#823) Last year in March, Seton Hall went on a remarkable run through the Big East tournament, knocking off eventual national champ Villanova in the title game to earn an automatic bid to the Big Dance. After the adrenaline and excitement from that conference tourney run came to an end, the Pirates looked flat and disjointed in their Big Dance opener in a non-competitive loss to Gonzaga. That was then. This is now. The Pirates didn’t use up all their energy in the Big East tourney this year, losing a tight, two point game to ‘Nova in the second round. And this year, instead of ‘happy to be here’, Kevin Willard’s squad is poised to make a little bit of noise this time around; in sharp contrast to an Arkansas team that missed the Big Dance last year and hasn’t covered a spread in a postseason tourney since 2014! Seton Hall plays sticky defense (top 40 nationally), as we saw in the Big East semi’s, holding mighty ‘Nova to 55 points. They’ve got great veteran leadership at the guard spots with Khadeen Carrington and Madison Jones, to go along with veterans Desi Rodriguez on the wing and Angel Delgado – the nation’s leading rebounder -- in the low post. And this Pirates team is peaking at the right time once again, playing their best basketball of the season here in March; a squad who’s full season stats and power rating number doesn’t tell the true story of where they’re at right now. Take Seton Hall. |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Michigan | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Oklahoma State (#827) John Beilein is one heck of a tournament coach, as we saw once again in the Big 10 Tourney this year. From a pointspread perspective, Beilein ranks as ‘elite’ here in March. The betting markets certainly recognize that fact, hence the love for the Wolverines in the betting markets this week – the same betting markets that loss their collective asses betting against Michigan in their remarkable run to the Big 10 Tournament title. Well guess what. Brad Underwood is one heck of a tourney coach too! He got this job because of his success in the postseason at Stephen F Austin; dominating West Virginia as a first round underdog last year. And his Cowboys are primed to make some noise with a small upset here in the first round again this year. Michigan rode the magic wave of adrenaline, guile and key miscues (and missed free throws) from their opponents to win that Big 10 Tourney Title; four games in four days following their near-death experience at the Willow Run Airport near Ann Arbor. I expect them to be hard pressed to find that same energy and magic here; a clear ‘bet-against’ team in their opening round game. And Michigan is such a weak defensive team (50% shooting allowed away from home, no shot blocker, no great on-ball defender, no defensive stopper), that a great offensive team like Oklahoma State is primed to exploit them! The Cowboys went 8-3 ATS as an underdog this year, consistently stepping up well against quality foes. It’s their offense that’s the difference maker, bad news for Michigan on the defensive end of the court. The Cowboys rank #1 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency; the second best college basketball offense of the last TEN YEARS, with point guard Jawun Evans flashing NBA upside. Here’s the quote from Texas Tech head coach Chris Beard: “Brad has really good players. He has an NBA point guard (Juwan Evans), one of the all-time great Big 12 players in (Phil) Forte, and in my opinion he has the most improved player, not only in Big 12, but in college basketball with (Jeffrey) Carroll. He has young players who really play their roles and play productive minutes.” Following a pair of losses to elite teams to close out the regular season, this is a step DOWN In class for the Cowboys; a game I expect them to win in straight up fashion. The 2.5 points give us a nice little ‘buzzer beater’ cushion should we need it. Take Oklahoma State. |
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03-16-17 | Nevada v. Iowa State OVER 156 | 73-84 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State – Nevada OVER (#729-730) It’s not hard to make a case betting Iowa State Over the total for their Big Dance opener against Nevada. After all, the betting markets haven’t been pricing Cyclones totals correctly for months! Iowa State has cashed nine straight Overs, including a 3-0 mark to the Over in the normally bogged down Big 12 Tournament; pushing the pace at every opportunity. A team that started the season 2-8 to the Under is 16-4 to the Over since. And it’s surely worth noting that all four Unders during that span came against teams looking to slow the Cyclones down into a half court game (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas St and Kansas). Nevada has a couple of things in common with Iowa State. First and foremost, like the Cyclones with four strong scorers averaging at least 12 points a game, four Wolfpack starters average at least 14 points per game. Defenses can’t concentrate on stopping one or two guys for either of these two squads; and both teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard even in a game where a handful of shooters are having an off night. No surprise, then, that Nevada, too, is trending strongly to the Over of late: 3-0 to Over in the Mountain West Tournament in Vegas; 6-1 to the Over in their last seven. The Wolfpack scored at least 79 points in each and every one of those seven contests despite a modest 46% shooting mark during that span – it’s been pace and offensive execution, not just hot shooting. So when Nevada and Iowa State match up in Milwaukee on Friday Night, we can expect a high scoring affair. These are two strong offensive teams playing at the top of their game right now, and the Bradley Center in Milwaukee is an excellent venue for shooters. Throw in a decent chance of late game ‘scramble’ points in this spread range and there’s ample reason to expect a wild, highly entertaining shootout in late action on Thursday. Take the Over. |
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03-16-17 | Nets +4 v. Knicks | 121-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#707) I can do this write-up in a single sentence: The Knicks can’t be favored, especially coming off a rare win. New York knocked off Indiana on Tuesday; only the third time all year that they’ve won a game without scoring 100 points. The Knicks haven’t won back-2-back games since before Christmas: 0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS following a single victory. Their best young player, Kristaps Porzingas, is downgraded to doubtful tonight. And this quote from Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the concept of ‘Let’s lay points with the Knicks’: “The playoffs may not be in reach, but this especially could be for other young guys to get some time to show what they really can do. Until you're mathematically done, you're always going for it, but sometimes it's realistic." The Knicks are 3-7 in their last ten tries as favorites….and that’s SU, not ATS! Two of the three SU wins as chalk came in games that they won by five points or less; both one possession games in the final minute. Brooklyn beat their in-city rivals at home last week, and I expect them to do the same at Madison Square Garden tonight. Take the Nets. |
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03-16-17 | Vermont v. Purdue -9 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Purdue (#732) The betting markets are not impressed with the Big 10 in general, and there’s certainly no groundswell of support to back a Purdue team that stumbled down the stretch with a pair of losses to Michigan. That leaves the Boilermakers as a seriously undervalued commodity heading into the Big Dance; a team with a ‘Final Four’ type statistical profile. And make no mistake about it – Purdue has something to prove here, right from the opening round. The Boilermakers got knocked off in the first round last year by Arkansas Little Rock in double overtime; a game where Purdue blew a 13 point lead in the final four minutes of regulation, a complete meltdown. The Big 10 regular season champ played at an elite level for extended stretches this season, and they’re coming into the Big Dance with a bit of a chip on their shoulders, primed for an opening round smackdown. It’s surely worth noting how good Purdue has been in this role this year, 12-2 ATS when laying -7.5 or higher. Vermont’s ‘big man’ is 6-8, 215 pounder Payton Hanson. Hanson has absolutely no chance to control the paint against 6-9, 250 Caleb Swanigan, an elite scorer with NBA potential. 7-2, 290 pounder Isaac Haas is an ever tougher matchup for the Catamounts, not to mention 6-8 Vince Edwards. Expect Purdue to control the paint on both ends of the floor, and win the battle of the boards by margin. If the Catamounts choose to sag into the paint to defend the Boilermakers low post studs, it’ll get even worse for the underdog. Purdue connected on more than 40% of their three point tries this year, ranked #4 in the country in three point shooting. Matt Painter’s inside-out offensive gameplan is nightmarish for Vermont to defend These two teams met last year. Vermont hit 48% from the floor and nailed 20 of their 24 free throw attempts, an excellent shooting game against a Big 10 foe. They still lost by 28, completely overwhelmed by the Boilermakers size and athleticism. It’s hard to picture the Catamounts shooting much better than 48% from the floor and 83% from the line in this one. Vermont faced three tourney teams during non-conference play this season. The lost to South Carolina, Providence and Butler by a combined 52 points, losing by at least a dozen in every one of those games. Purdue is better than all three of those squads, primed to win this one by a comfortable, double digit margin. Big Ticket: Take Purdue. |
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03-16-17 | Vanderbilt -1.5 v. Northwestern | 66-68 | Loss | -101 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#739) At this time of the year, I’m always interested in supporting teams who’s full season numbers don’t accurately reflect their current realities. These are teams that I consider to be value laden squads. And Vanderbilt is certainly at or near the top of my list of ‘late season morphers’ – teams that are playing at a very different level right now than their full season power rating would indicate. Make no mistake about it – Vanderbilt is one of those teams. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Vandy write-up from the SEC tournament last weekend. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “Flying waaaaaay underneath the radar, Vandy is as hot as any team in college basketball right now: 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine ballgames. The Commodores are playing stifling defense – four of their last six opponents have made 20 shots or less against them in the 40 minutes of regulation basketball. Vandy hits their free throws, better than 77% for the full season, Top 10 in the country. Bryce Drew’s teams have enjoyed tournament success before at Valpo, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Vandy knocks off Florida in SU fashion for the third time this season.” The Commodores did not respond well after their OT win over the Gators, coming up flat the next day against Arkansas. But with 7-1 Luke Kornet eating up rebounds and blocking shots in the low post, Riley LeChance avoiding turnovers like the plague at the point, and Matthew Fisher Davis and Jeff Roberson filling up the bucket, this team has plenty of scoring options. They also have continuity, even in Drew’s first season on the job. Drew’s nine man rotation has COMBINED to miss just two games all year – their lack of injuries has led to a vastly improved oncourt chemistry compared to where they were four months ago! Northwestern finally ended their tournament drought because the Big 10 lacked elite teams this year. But unlike Vandy, the Wildcats are in the ‘happy to be here’ category. And Northwestern’s issues against strong defensive teams and strong rebounding teams are primed to rear their head’s again here. Short chalk worth laying! Take Vanderbilt. |
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03-15-17 | Kings v. Suns -5.5 | 107-101 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Phoenix (#618) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winners here in March supporting the Phoenix Suns. Tonight provides another rock solid opportunity to cash in supporting this under-the-radar late season moneymaker. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Suns write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: ‘I’ve got a big buy’ sign on the Phoenix Suns right now, with the betting markets getting the wrong read on management’s decision to start playing the young guys. Veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight have essentially been benched, creating playing time for the Suns emerging talent. The markets knee jerk reaction: ‘Phoenix is tanking’! ‘But the exact opposite has been true. The Suns have averaged 117 points per game over their last five contests since Earl Watson’s rotation change, hanging at least 100 points in every game while going 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS. ‘The biggest reason for the Suns recent, under-the-radar surge has been their bench play. Rookie Tyler Ulis is getting his first substantial playing time, and he’s been great. Head coach Earl Watson, following the win over Charlotte last week: “Tyler Ulis changed the game.’ And that came BEFORE Ulis hit the game winner against Boston. ‘Second year forward Alan Williams had 41 combined points in the Suns first 44 games this year. Williams now has seven double doubles in his last nine games. This squad is worth paying very close attention to; a team that is waaaaaaay off the radar for the vast majority of bettors.’ We’re catching the Suns off a bad home loss to the Blazers last time out; a ‘bet-on’ spot. Sacramento is in the exact opposite situation. The Kings are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS since dealing away DeMarcus Cousins at the trading deadline. One of those wins came on Monday against Orlando; a contest where the Kings disjointed offense was saved by a bevy of made three pointers. Six different Kings hit at least two three pointers as Sacramento shot 53% from downtown. Despite the fact that it was a night where everything was falling for the Kings shooters, they were still ‘life and death’ to win the game. On a night where those shots aren’t falling, the Kings have routinely been getting crushed. And Sacramento off a win is about as ‘bet-against’ as it gets at the NBA level. Take the Suns. |
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03-15-17 | Akron v. Houston -8 | 78-75 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#630) Akron was the class of the MAC with a 14-4 mark during the regular season, 26-8 overall. But it’s going to be very hard for the Zips to play at their regular season capabilities tonight following a crushing loss to Kent in the MAC Championship Game last weekend, relegating the Zips to the NIT for the second consecutive year. Make no mistake about it – that loss to the Golden Flashes was absolutely devastating for this team, as their head coach will tell you Zips head coach Keith Dambrot: “It’s more emotional preparation than physical preparation at this point. Do we have enough in our tank emotionally coming off two disappointments two years in a row to play a good game in the NIT? That’s probably the toughest challenge I’m going to face as a coach, trying to motivate my guys…… I think we’ll play but it’s not easy, emotionally, on them.” Junior guard Antino Jackson: “You know, it’s kind of emotional. This is the second year in the row this has happened to me, so I’m taking it pretty rough.” To make matters even worse, Coach Dambrot is giving his team excuse after excuse for a no-show tonight. “For the life of me, I don’t think we’ve been treated fairly by the NIT yet. Last year we should have had a home game.” When a coach complains about seeding from last year, it’s NEVER a positive sign for his team’s performance moving forward. Even with three key contributors from the Houston area as a motivator, this is not a spot for Akron to bring anything resembling their ‘A’ game. This is not a true home game for Houston, playing on the Texas Southern University campus due to renovations to Hofheinz Pavilion. But the Cougs are relishing this opportunity, with one positive quote after the next from a squad that got bounced out of the NIT in an opening round road loss last year - -Kelvin Sampson’s squad is coming to play tonight, something I can’t say with confidence about their opponent. Expect a comfortable win for the favorite….Take Houston. |
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03-14-17 | Blazers +4 v. Pelicans | 77-100 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#537) My clients and I have cashed a couple of winners betting against New Orleans since their blockbuster deal at the trading deadline to pick up DeMarcus Cousins. The Pelicans are just 3-6 SU since that trade. One win came against the tanking Lakers, the single worst team in the league right now. A second win came against the Pistons on the second night of back-2-backs off a wild, come-from-behind OT win the previous night. The third win came in OT against a Charlotte team that is a woeful 6-17 SU in their last 23. That win came with Cousins sitting on the bench throughout the Pelicans run in the fourth quarter and overtime, not exactly acclimating well to his new surroundings. The Pelicans have been an easy, consistent fade off a single victory. Since the calendar turned to 2017, New Orleans has won consecutive games only twice, both on road trips and one of which came against the hapless Knicks and Nets. There’s not much of a homecourt edge for New Orleans these days, just 1-4 SU in their last five at home, 5-8 SU in their last 13. And when we’re talking about a team that has a grand total of eight wins and covers as a favorite all year, fading them as chalk following a big steam move driving the line up in early betting action is a no-brainer for this bettor! The Blazers are 5-1 SU in their last six, the lone loss coming on a controversial buzzer beater against the Wizards. They’ve dominated this series to the tune of 7 -2 SU & ATS in the last nine meetings, including a comfortable 15 point victory the last time they met. Big man Josef Nurkic has been an immediate impact player for Portland since they picked him up at the trading deadline, giving the Blazers some much needed low post muscle to bang in the paint with the Pelicans bigs. But more than anything else, it’s quotes like this one from All Star point guard Damian Lillard that stand out in favor of the Blazers tonight. "We're fighting. I think that's what it comes down to. It's not always a perfect game. It's not always a pretty game. But down the stretch, we have a chance in every game. I just like that we're competing, we're playing with a lot of pride, we're playing like we care about where our season goes." Take the Blazers. |
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03-14-17 | Valparaiso v. Illinois -8.5 | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#552) Illinois fired head coach John Groce over the weekend, after the Illini were bounced from the Big 10 Tournament. But the rest of the Illini coaching staff was retained for the NIT Tournament, and interim head coach Jamall Walker appears to be pushing all the right buttons for a team that played pretty good basketball down the stretch. Walker said not much will change in terms of offense, defense or personnel, coming out of practice that he ‘liked’. Walker: “You only have 48 hours so my job is to basically get them mentally ready to go. This isn’t my team and to be honest it wasn’t John Groce’s team. It’s Tracy Abrams’ team. It’s Malcolm Hill’s team. It’s Maverick Morgan’s team. They will determine what they want to show. I told them that. What do you want to show? We talk about legacy around here. They still have an opportunity to show what they’re about. We use basketball as a platform for that. They have a great opportunity to show what kind of character they have.” Senior Malcolm Hill talked about the Illini loss at Alabama in the first round of the NIT two years ago, when Alabama had just fired head coach Anthony Grant. “The one thing I do remember is that Alabama had just fired their head coach and they were really inspired to play for him. If we take that same mindset, that would be good for us. Alabama played inspired… that’s how we should be.” Valpo’s season essentially ended when their best player – the Horizon League Player of the Year, Alec Peters and his 23 points/10 rebounds per game – suffered a season ending injury in late February. Since the injury, the Crusaders have only one win – all the way back on February 24th. In their only game in the past 17 days, Valpo scored 41 points and lost outright as nine point chalk; not exactly a squad in mid-season form right now. This quote from first year, first time head coach Matt Lottich after their Horizon League tourney early exit is ‘coach-speak’ at it’s finest. Read between the lines here and you can sense Lottich is not the most confident guy heading into this matchup: “We’re going to continue to fight and we’re going to continue to practice…. love this group, I love coaching them. They never make excuses, they continue to push forward. They give me everything they’ve got. That’s all I can ask.” Even if the Crusaders bring it, ‘everything they’ve got’ won’t be enough here. Take Illinois. |
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03-13-17 | Magic +2 v. Kings | 115-120 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#515) Orlando’s full season record is 24-43. Sacramento’s is 25-41. But that’s about where the comparison’s end for these two squads right now. The Kings are what are; a sorry squad loaded with second tier players on their way to another lottery finish. Since dealing DeMarcus Cousins away, Sacramento has one win, beating Denver in the Nuggets first game out of the All Star Break. Since that time, they are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS, playing exactly as you’d expect this team to play – disjointed basketball on both ends of the court. During this entire span, the Kings have only gotten a 20 point game out of a player three times; a squad without a ‘go-to’ scorer during crunch time. Winning games is not exactly a priority in Sacramento these days, bad news for the Kings in a game they’ll need to win in order to cover. Head coach Dave Joerger: ‘These (young) guys are playing.” The Magic got starting center Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup in a loss to the Cavs in their last contest. Prior to Vucevic’s injury, the Magic starting five of Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Terrance Ross, Even Fournier and Elfrid Payton were outscoring opponents by 22 points per 100 possessions since the All Star Break, the best mark in the NBA during that span. No surprise, then, that Orlando has started winning some games, beating Atlanta, Miami and Chicago in SU fashion since the break. They beat Sacramento by eight in the previous meeting this season, and won SU on this floor on each of their last two visits. Wrong team favored here! Take the Magic. |
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03-13-17 | Bucks +4 v. Grizzlies | 93-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#507) Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale made a chance to the Grizzlies rotations last week, taking Tony Allen and JaMychal Green out of the starting lineup, while putting Andrew Harrison and Brandon Wright in. His rationale behind the move? “We’re stale. Right now we’re 14-14 since January 1. It’s my job to shake it up.” Since that switch, the Grizzlies have been home favorites in three straight games. They’ve lost all three of those games in non-competitive fashion, losing by double digit margins each time, a whopping 65.5 points ATS. Fizdale benched Harrison and Wright prior to their last game, inserting Allen and James Ennis into the starting lineup against Atlanta. Again, it failed miserably. Point guard Mike Conley: “We're in our own heads right now. Individually, we are hesitant and we are doubting ourselves.” Memphis has been known for their defensive acumen for the better part of the last decade, a ‘grind it out’ squad if there ever was one. But since the All Star Break, the Grizzlies adjusted defensive efficiency ranks DEAD LAST in the NBA. Their rebounding has fallen to #24. This team has no business as chalk right now, especially to a surging Bucks team. Very quietly, waaaay under the radar, the Bucks are riding a 6-0 SU and ATS run. Milwaukee’s defense has gotten notably better in recent weeks, ranked #7 in the NBA since the break, a hidden benefit of the Jabari Parker injury. And with Kris Middleton rounding into mid-season form after missing the first four months of the season, this is a confident, ‘bet-on’ squad moving forward, in sharp contrast to their opponent tonight. Take the Bucks. |
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03-13-17 | Wizards v. Wolves -1 | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#510) This is the mother of all bad spots for the Washington Wizards; a clear ‘bet-against’ in this pointspread range. This is Washington’s fifth game in seven nights, all on the highway. They’ve won each of the first four games, a highly successful road trip regardless of how this finale plays out. And make no mistake about it – this team is gassed right here. At Sacramento on Friday and then again at Portland on Saturday, the Wizards rallied from 15+ points down to win the games in overtime. Washington gets no extra rest after this game, returning home for a game on Wednesday. They’ve got another long West Coast swing coming up later in the month. And head coach Scott Brooks has to be worried about managing his stars minutes, with both John Wall and Bradley Beal ranked among the top 20 in minutes per game. Minnesota has beaten the Jazz, Warriors and Clippers already here in March, while taking the Spurs to OT in San Antonio; a team that is stepping up in class very well these days. But Minnesota is coming off a disappointing loss at Milwaukee on the second night of back-2-backs on Saturday, negating the momentum from that Warriors upset victory. Karl Anthony Towns, following that defeat: “We got some good looks. I think we did a good job but it comes down to that they made shots. They made more shots than us in the fourth quarter. That's the game of basketball. We have to move on and get ready for Monday." It’s surely worth noting that the T-wolves are 5-0 SU & ATS following a loss over the past five weeks, an emerging trend worth riding here. Take the T-Wolves. |
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03-12-17 | Cavs v. Rockets -6 | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#878) This is not rocket science or brain surgery – it’s simple. The Cavaliers have 21 losses this season. They are 0-21 ATS in defeat – not once all year have they covered a pointspread in a game they didn’t win in SU fashion. As underdogs in any game on any floor, the Cavs are just 2-7 for the season ATS. This is not a game I expect Cleveland to win. Playing on the second night of back-2-backs, the Cavs are just 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS, consistently failing in this role. Tyrone Lue didn’t give his starters much of a break in their win at Orlando last night – Kyrie Irving played 36 minutes, LeBron James was on the floor for 38. The Cavs have four additional games on tap between now and next Sunday. LeBron ranks behind only Toronto’s Kyle Lowry in terms of minutes played per game this season. No surprise here if Coach Lue makes sure his superstars get ample rest here, if they suit up at all. Houston is a legitimate championship contender and this is very much a statement game for the rested, ready home favorite. Expect Houston to push the pace against the tired Cavs, forcing Lue to use his bench early and often. The Rockets have lost SU on this floor as -10 favorites against the Heat, -9 favorites against the Pacers and -8.5 point favorites against the Jazz in recent weeks. But when Houston is facing an opponent that catches their interest – a revenge meeting or a statement game – and they are ‘bet-on’ in every sense of the word. No surprise here if this one turns into a rout! Take the Rockets. |
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03-12-17 | Cincinnati +2 v. SMU | 56-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#891) Mick Cronin has been setting up his rotation for Sunday since the Bearcats blowout win over Tulsa on Friday. Cronin emptied his bench in the second half of that game – nobody on the roster reached 30 minutes of court time. In yesterday’s semi-final matchup, Cronin did it again, with only two starters reaching the 30 minute mark against UConn. It’s surely worth noting that the Bearcats shot only 38% from the floor against the Huskies, yet still won the game by a double digit margin. That stands in sharp contrast with the SMU portion of this equation. Tim Jankovich has a roster built for a deep NCAA tournament run – the Mustangs top six players are extremely talented and remarkably versatile. But in a short turnaround setting like this one, SMU’s complete and utter lack of depth is a real problem. Only those top six players saw the court yesterday and they combined for the 188 of SMU’s 200 minutes in Friday’s huge blown lead game against East Carolina. Adrenaline tends to run out by the finale in these ‘three games in three days’ settings. SMU has shot 55% from the floor and 47% from three point range in their last five games, including 53% shooting overall in this tournament. Now they’re facing a defensive juggernaut. Cinci has allowed only 38% shooting for the season, ranked #6 in the country in defensive efficiency. Don’t expect those SMU shots to fall at anywhere near the same rate today….. Take Cinci. |
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03-11-17 | Suns +6 v. Mavs | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Phoenix (#717) I’ve got a big buy’ sign on the Phoenix Suns right now, with the betting markets getting the wrong read on management’s decision to start playing the young guys. Veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight have essentially been benched, creating playing time for the Suns emerging talent. The markets knee jerk reaction: ‘Phoenix is tanking’! But the exact opposite has been true. The Suns have averaged 117 points per game over their last five contests since Earl Watson’s rotation change, hanging at least 109 points in every game while going 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS; the lone pointspread defeat coming in a game where Phoenix was favored. . The biggest reason for the Suns recent, under-the-radar surge has been their bench play. Rookie Tyler Ulis is getting his first substantial playing time, and he’s been great: averaging 10.8 points and 5.8 assists during this five game run. Head coach Earl Watson, following the win over Charlotte last week: “Tyler Ulis changed the game.’ And that came BEFORE Ulis hit the game winner against Boston. Second year forward Alan Williams had 41 combined points in the Suns first 44 games this year. Williams now has six double doubles in his last seven games. Rookie reserve Derrick Jones Jr is heating up as well. This squad is worth paying very close attention to; a team that is waaaaaaay off the radar for the vast majority of bettors. We’re catching the Suns off a dismal showing at home against the Lakers to close out their homestand; a legit motivator here. Devin Booker: “I think the Lakers felt like they had something to prove after the last time we played. They came out and showed that. We didn't have any fight tonight. It's really disappointing. We've beaten top teams, competed with thee top teams in the league. Every team's talented, but they (the Lakers) are one of the losing teams like us and we should have just come out here and competed hard." Watson: “(The Lakers) did a good job of just being the toughest team on the court from beginning to end.” I’m not expecting back-2-back no-shows for this team! The Suns gave the Mavs fits in both previous meetings, winning straight up in Dallas and hanging tough for the full 48 minutes in a five point loss down in Mexico City. They’re catching the Mavs ‘fat and happy’ off a 4-0 start to this homestand, with an East Coast swing that starts with tough games at Toronto and Washington as a lookahead distraction tonight. Live dog here! Take the Suns. |
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03-11-17 | Colorado State v. Nevada -5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#748) I’m keeping this one short & sweet. Nevada has been the class of this conference from Day 1 this year. They just beat the Rams by 13 on their home floor last weekend despite Colorado State hitting ten three pointers and 82% from the free throw line. The Wolfpack controlled the paint in that contest. And their quartet of double digit scorers – Marcus Marshall, Cam Oliver, Jordan Caroline and DJ Fenner – combined to get one good look after the next, with three of the four producing 18 points or more. Colorado State can’t match Nevada’s firepower. Four of their five starters played at least 34 minutes yesterday. Their best player, Gian Clavell, played all 40 minutes. Big man Emmanuel Omogbo was in for 36. This is not a team loaded with quality depth behind their top two players, and in a third game in three days situation, I don’t trust the Rams stars to bring their A’ game here. Bet the class…..Take Nevada. |
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03-11-17 | Vanderbilt -3.5 v. Arkansas | 62-76 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#739) My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner supporting the Commodores yesterday in their OT victory against Florida. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “ “Flying waaaaaay underneath the radar, Vandy is as hot as any team in college basketball right now: 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last eight ballgames. The Commodores are playing stifling defense – four of their last five opponents have made 20 shots or less against them in the 40 minutes of regulation basketball. Vandy hits their free throws, better than 77% for the full season, Top 10 in the country. Bryce Drew’s teams have enjoyed tournament success before at Valpo, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Vandy knocks off Florida in SU fashion for the third time this season.” Vandy also beat Arkansas pretty soundly, at Arkansas, less than a month ago. The Razorbacks had no answers for the Commodores size in the paint (Vandy won the rebounding battle by 13) and couldn’t hit a deep shot against Vandy’s defensive pressure on the perimeter. Arkansas won yesterday by a point against Ole Miss thanks to 87% free throw shooting and only ten turnovers. I’m not expecting a repeat in either category today! Take Vandy. |
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03-10-17 | Raptors +2.5 v. Hawks | 99-105 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#507) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Raptors on Wednesday in their outright upset victory at New Orleans. And I firmly expect Toronto to be in position to pull off another outright upset at Atlanta tonight. Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro-Raptors write-up: “After getting beaten by the Bucks in their last game on Saturday, the Raptors flew to Miami, as a team, for a break from their normal routines. Head coach Dwane Casey gave his team a break for R&R, then got them back on the practice floor to work on fundamentals. Casey: “A lot of training and practice. I think you have a captive audience. For me, that is not a vacation, and I let the players know that. We probably got a longer practice than they would have let us have in Toronto. We got a lot of stuff done." A March refresher isn’t a bad thing for any team during the long slog of the season’s stretch run, and the Raptors were clearly the fresher team down the stretch of the fourth quarter against the Pelicans. And considering the success the Raptors have already had against the Hawks this season – hanging 121 and 128 on Atlanta in the first two meetings – we can expect another strong showing down the stretch tonight. Atlanta is in pointspread free-fall, just 1-7 ATS since the All Star Break. Home court edge? Not so much, just 2-10 ATS in their last dozen here in Atlanta. The Hawks snapped a three game skid with a win over the lowly Nets in their last outing, taking the pressure off, but their defensive weaknesses were on full display once again, a team allowing 110 points per game on 48% shooting over their last five contests. Wrong team favored here! Take the Raptors. |
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03-10-17 | Vanderbilt +7 v. Florida | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Vanderbilt (#557) Florida has one fatal flaw that has hurt them repeatedly this season – their lack of a ‘go-to’ guy for crunch time scoring. When the Gators were winning national championships, they had NBA talent all over this roster: like Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer. Billy Donovan recruited well throughout his tenure here: Bradley Beal, David Lee, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Chandler Parsons, Matt Bonner, Marrese Speights, Jason Williams and Nick Calathes, just to name some. This Florida team doesn’t have anybody who will be playing in the NBA next year. Devin Robinson might make it to the D-League; KeVaughn Allen isn’t even being talked about any more, and that’s about it for top line talent. The Gators don’t beat themselves, but despite their lofty record, Florida is a long way from ‘elite status, as clearly shown by their 0-fer the season ATS mark as an underdog. Vanderbilt didn’t beat Florida twice during the regular season by accident, winning outright as 3.5 and 11.5 point underdogs in the two meetings. That’s been the case repeatedly of late – Vandy is 6-1 ATS against Florida in the last seven meetings – underdogs in every one of those pointspread covers -- and haven’t lost by more than three points to the Gators since 2013. Flying waaaaaay underneath the radar, Vandy is as hot as any team in college basketball right now: 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in their last seven ballgames. The Commodores are playing stifling defense – three of their last five opponents have made 18 shots or less against them in 40 minutes of basketball. They hit their free throws, better than 77% for the full season, Top 10 in the country. Bryce Drew’s teams have enjoyed tournament success before at Valpo, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Vandy knocks off Florida in SU fashion for the third time this season. Take Vandy. |
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03-10-17 | TCU v. Iowa State -4.5 | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#574) Make no mistake about it – TCU got the win of their season yesterday; not a team primed for back-2-back upsets in Big 12 tourney action. The Horned Frogs knocked off the #1 team in the country yesterday, beating Kansas, on the heels of a big win over Oklahoma in their opener. Their point guard, Alex Robinson, and wing/top rebounder Kenrich Williams have combined to play 144 out of a possible 160 minutes over the past two days; not a ‘fresh’ team today And this quote from senior guard Brandon Parrish tells us all we need to know about the impact of yesterday’s victory: “This is the win of my career, right here, to be completely honest. A lot of times people would tell us that we were never good enough, we would never be able to get it done.” It’s going to be extremely difficult for this squad to come back to earth after yesterday’s emotional high. Iowa State seniors Monte Morris, Matt Thomas and Naz Mitrou-Long hare a truly remarkable track record in this Big 12 tourney. They won it as freshmen. They won it as sophomores. They covered the spread in defeat as underdogs in their lone tourney game last year and they beat Oklahoma State yesterday in their tourney opener. Add it up and we’re talking about a group of seniors who are 7-1 SU, 7-0-1 ATS in this tournament, a streak worth riding again tonight. The Cyclones beat the Horned Frogs by 13 when they met last month, despite a 52% shooting effort from TCU. Don’t expect Jamie Dixon’s squad to approach those lofty shooting numbers here on their third game in three days. Take Iowa State. |
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03-09-17 | San Diego State v. Boise State +1.5 | 87-68 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Boise (#790) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) San Diego State carries a huge reputation here in Las Vegas; the class of the Mountain West Conference for the better part of the last decade. Even in a down season for the program, the betting markets don’t take the Aztecs lightly. That’s why they were double digit favorites yesterday against UNLV, a game where San Diego State needed a furious second half rally to send the game into overtime before a 12-0 run to open the extra session. And that’s why Steve Fisher’s squad is chalk again here, despite the fact that they are the weaker of these two teams right now. San Diego State has a grand total of eight pointspread covers in their 27 lined games this year. Their last pointspread cover came at home, more than a month ago. Prior to yesterday’s win over the Rebels, the Aztecs hadn’t won a game on the highway in more than a month. A San Diego State fan base that normally travels well to Vegas is a good notch or two light this year. The Aztecs shot 33% from the floor and committed 16 turnovers yesterday, surviving and advancing thanks to UNLV’s own ineptitude plus a strong 21-26 effort from the charity stripe. That strong free throw shooting is an outlier for a team that has shot less than 70% from the line this year. And Boise isn’t a team loaded with bricklayers like UNLV – they hung 78 on the Aztecs on 45% shooting in their lone regular season matchup, a double digit Broncos win. The Aztecs are going to need to hit shots tonight, a consistent problem for them all year. Boise hung tough at Oregon on November 28th, losing by only five points as a 17.5 point underdog. That set the tone for the season for a squad that was a consistent money winner away from home, including SU road wins at Loyola Marymount, Utah State, right here at the Thomas & Mack against UNLV, Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force. And, quite frankly, Boise is the better of these two teams; a veteran squad worthy of support in their Mountain West Tourney opener. Take Boise. |
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03-09-17 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -2.5 | 114-98 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#706) When a coach starts complaining about his team’s schedule, it’s ‘fade’ time. We’ve seen it on several occasions already this season, including Billy Donovan in Oklahoma City and Mike D’Antoni in Houston before the All Star Break as well as Steve Kerr’s Golden State team over the past few weeks. And now Doc Rivers has fallen into that same trap. LA is 3-5 SU since the All Star Break, showing no dramatic improvement even with their two superstars (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) back on the floor together. This is their third set of back-2-backs since the All Star break. They played at Chicago and Milwaukee last weekend, flew home to LA for one game against Boston, then flew back East for this set of back-2-backs. Rivers: “I would have loved to have just gone straight to Minnesota from Chicago. That would have made a lot of sense." LA had zero energy on either end of the court in Minnesota last night, and I’m not convinced tonight is going to be much better. It’s a very different story for Memphis; losers of three straight and five of their last seven. They bottomed out on Monday with a home loss as double digit chalk against the worst team in the league, Brooklyn, a game that Coach Fizdale called their ‘lowest point of the season’. “We're stale. Right now we're 14-14 since January 1. It's my job to shake it up.” They’ve had two days off since that loss to Brooklyn, rested and ready to bring their ‘A’ game in a clear bounceback spot tonight. Star point guard Mike Conley: “We're frustrated. We understand what we're trying to build towards and that's what's frustrating. If we didn't care about what was going on, if we didn't care about winning a championship, if we didn't think we're capable, then morale would be fine. We've got a lot of competitors in here.” Bet on spot vs. bet-against spot, plain and simple. Take the Grizzlies. |
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03-09-17 | Texas +11.5 v. West Virginia | 53-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#755) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) Four key factors in play for me on this one. First, I want my money on Shaka Smart in tournament settings. He got this job because of his remarkable tournament success at VCU, both in the A-10 tourney’s and, of course in the Big Dance. We saw Texas rally back from a double digit deficit in conference tourney action last night, exerting their will as underdogs against Texas Tech. That’s on Smart, a ‘bet-on’ coach as a double digit underdog in this setting. Secondly, there aren’t many coaches I’d prefer to have my money on against a pressing defense than Shaka Smart. Smart has utilized many of the same defensive mechanisms as his counterpart on the West Virginia sidelines, Bob Huggins. His team faces those presses in practice every day. Even without an ‘A’ level point guard on the roster, the Longhorns has the passing acumen to survive the Mountaineers defensive onslaught. Third, West Virginia isn’t built to win by big margins in halfcourt games. The Mountaineers are at their best when they are pressing, forcing turnovers in bunches, and getting easy fast break buckets. Put this team in a ‘grind it out’ setting where they have to execute their halfcourt offense and all of a sudden, this double digit pointspread looks rather large. Lastly, for much of their Big 12 campaign, Texas lacked quality depth, a staple of what Shaka Smart needs to run his gameplan effectively. But even without Tevin Mack available, Smart has gotten quality minutes out of his developing bench of late – only two starters reached the 30 minute mark yesterday. The Longhorns improved depth gives me the confidence that they can hang tough here for the full 40 minutes. Take Texas. |
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03-09-17 | Indiana v. Iowa +2 | 95-73 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#724) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) No Big 10 team was hotter down the stretch than underrated and underappreciated Iowa. The Hawkeyes came on like a freight train in recent weeks, riding a 4-0 SU and ATS run into the tourney. That included outright upset wins at Wisconsin and at Maryland, as well as an OT win over the same Indiana team they’ll face today. In that meeting against the Hoosiers, Iowa was able to penetrate the paint again and again, resulting in a whopping 47-19 edge at the free throw line. And there’s little reason to think that Tom Crean’s underachieving squad will be able to shut down senior leader Peter Jok and his young but talented teammates. Indiana has won a grand total of three games away from home all year. One of them came back on opening night in November against Kansas, a win that essentially left them overrated since. The other two wins away from home? By 3 at Penn State and by 4 at Ohio State, two teams that have had a REALLY hard time closing teams out all year. This is NOT a team to be trusted laying points; 0-fer the season as short favorites (-4.5 or less) and 33% ATS when laying 15 or less. Take Iowa. |
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03-09-17 | Duke v. Louisville -1.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Louisville (#714) (Abbreviated write-ups during this very busy conference tourney week) I’ll keep this short and sweet. Duke has no depth, especially with Grayson Allen a complete non-factor since his injury in late February (a total of five made shots in the Blue Devils last five games; more fouls than points, rebounds and assists combined in 12 minutes yesterday). Clemson gave them a battle to the final minute yesterday; a game in which Duke’s starters combined for 178 of the 200 minutes of court time, while the bench produced a grand total of two points, three rebounds and an assist. Coach K has bigger fish to fry than the ACC Tournament. A weekend practicing back home, trying to get Allen healthy again is not a bad thing for this team, as opposed to going all out in what will be a BRUTAL run to the finals in this loaded tourney. I do not expect a ‘balls to the wall’ effort from the Blue Devils today. Louisville comes into the game with an inherent advantage, just like they had in the first meeting (a comfortable nine point win). Louisville’s constant pressure on defense wears opponents down, even if they don’t force turnovers in bunches. Duke has no depth and played a tight game yesterday. Expect Louisville’s presses to have the desired effect here – Duke will not be ‘fresh’ for the second half of this one! And make no mistake about it – this game, and this tournament, means more to Louisville than perhaps any other team in the conference. Rick Pitino is a conference tourney guy: 12-2 SU & ATS since 2012. He owns 11 conference tournament championships in four different leagues over the past 2 ½ decades. Louisville was ineligible last year and they got bounced from their opener in their first ever ACC tourney in 2015. This team has a statement to make this weekend, and I expect it to start right here! Big Ticket: Take Louisville. |
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03-08-17 | Celtics +8.5 v. Warriors | 99-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#521) I understand that Boston has had a rough week. They were flat for extended stretches at Phoenix over the weekend, only to rally back and blow the ‘W’ in the final minute. They followed that up with an ugly second half against the Clippers the following night. All Star point guard Isaiah Thomas was not pleased with Brad Stevens rotations during the Clippers loss, with Thomas on the bench as LA went on a huge 21-6 run that turned the game in the third quarter. Al Horford missed both of those losses with an elbow injury. Horford is expected back on the floor tonight, upgraded to ‘probable’. Boston has shown repeatedly that they are not a ‘losing streak’ type of team, suffering only three three game skids all year, one of which came back in early November. And it’s surely worth noting that they lost by only seven at San Antonio in the third game of the second of those skids, close enough to cover the spread in defeat. And the Celtics take these matchup with Golden State very seriously. Boston gave the Warriors everything Golden State could handle in both meetings last year, losing at home in double OT in the first meeting, then handing the Warriors one of only two home losses they suffered all year in the rematch. Golden State got their ‘revenge’ with a 16 point win at Boston earlier this season, thanks to a 31-9 run-out in the third quarter, a game where Boston was dealing with multiple key injuries. That’s certainly not the case tonight! The Warriors have been an overvalued commodity in a big way in recent weeks, just 1-6 ATS since the All Star Break. They weren’t able to extend margins in relatively tight wins over the Knicks (by 7) and Hawks (by 8) to close out their extended East Coast road trip. And this single home game before another set of back-2-backs on the road against the T-Wolves and Spurs this weekend is a ‘major distraction’ spot; a game that Steve Kerr was worried about even before that last road trip began. ‘Live dog’ here! Take the Celtics. |
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03-08-17 | Raptors +3.5 v. Pelicans | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#511) This is a classic ‘Bet-on’ vs. ‘Bet-against’ here, with the ‘Bet-Against’ team laying points and taking early money on Wednesday. New Orleans has no business laying points to any playoff contender. The Pelicans are just 2-5 since picking up DeMarcus Cousins at the trading deadline. Neither win was particularly impressive. They beat the tanking Lakers and knocked off the Pistons on the second night of back-2-backs off a wild, come-from-behind OT win the previous night. Things aren’t working for New Orleans offensively right now, held under 90 points in regulation three times in their last six games. Point guard Jrue Holiday looks completely lost, benched for the entirety of the fourth quarter in a loss at Utah in their last game. And he’s not the only one struggling to acclimate to the presence of two elite big men on the floor at the same time – the Pelicans lack quality, shot making wings after dealing away their top perimeter threats in the Cousins deal. After getting beaten by the Bucks in their last game on Saturday, the Raptors flew to Miami, as a team, for a break from their normal routines. Head coach Dwane Casey gave his team a break for R&R, then got them back on the practice floor to work on fundamentals. Casey: “A lot of training and practice. I think you have a captive audience. For me, that is not a vacation, and I let the players know that. We probably got a longer practice than they would have let us have in Toronto. We got a lot of stuff done." Toronto beat New Orleans when these two teams met earlier in the season, and they’ve dominated on this floor: 12-2 SU on their last 14 trips to the Big Easy, including four of their last five. Look for the rested, ready Raptors to bring their ‘A’ game here against an opponent that doesn’t have a strong ‘A’ game right now. Take the Raptors. |
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