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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-03-18 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Jazz | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#721) It’s ‘stop the bleeding’ time for New Orleans after the Pelicans blew a fourth quarter lead at home against the Knicks in their last outing on the heels of a home loss to the Mavericks in their previous game. Head coach Alvin Gentry: “No one is really excited about being .500 right now. We feel like we should obviously be a lot better than that. We still have an opportunity to run off some wins and have a situation where we end up with a really good record, but we're going to have to finish games.” Utah is a team that opponents can ‘finish games’ against. The short-handed Jazz are still playing without injured defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert; a crucial absence in a matchup against the Pelicans seven footers Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Rookie Donovan Mitchell is leading the team in minutes and in scoring – never a good sign. Sharpshooter Rodney Hood is just jacking up three pointers in a disjointed offense – there’s a reason the Jazz are just 3-9 SU in their last dozen games, with seven of those losses coming by double digit margins. Coming off a huge win against the Cavs, look for Utah to be hard pressed to match that level of production against Rajon Rondo (45 assists in his last three games) and the Pelicans this evening. Wrong team favored here! Take the Pelicans. |
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01-03-18 | St Bonaventure -1.5 v. Dayton | 72-82 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Take St Bonaventure (#767) The Bonnies are 7-0 since leading scorer Jaylen Adams returned to the lineup after he missed the first six games of the season. That stretch includes a SU win at Syracuse and a 20 point blowout against UMass in their last game. UMass head coach Matt McCall, talking about the Bonnies after that game: “We played one of the best teams in the league and it was a challenge for us.” But the Bonnies still aren’t being priced like an elite A-10 squad; the residual effect of years of mediocrity from this program and a couple of bad early season losses (Niagara at home on opening night stands out). But this team was good enough to beat Maryland and Syracuse away from home. The Adams/Matt Mobley duo is as good a combo as any team in the conference has on their roster; the type of senior leaders we can trust in hostile environments. Dayton, too, still carries ATS baggage of a bygone era. First year head coach Anthony Grant has a completely rebuilt roster after graduating four senior starters, a group that won 26, 27, 25 and 24 games in their four years with the Flyers. There have been plenty of early season growing pains, particularly on the defensive end of the court – the Flyers are sub .500 heading into January for a reason, not by accident. Cheap price to lay to back the superior team in revenge after getting swept by Dayton last year. Take St Bonnie’s. |
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01-03-18 | Valparaiso v. Bradley -6.5 | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Bradley (#762) This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now. Valpo has flat out fallen apart since losing to Ball State on a buzzer beater more than three weeks ago. Since that time, the Crusaders are 1-4 SU and ATS, the lone win coming against an even more hapless foe (Santa Clara). Most notably, Valpo has been consistently losing contact, getting blown off the floor, losing those four games ATS by 23.5, 20, 9 and 18.5 points ATS. Defensive effort, offensive execution, free throw shooting – the Crusaders are falling apart in all aspects right now, a ‘bet-against’ team at every reasonable opportunity. Bradley is headed in the other direction. The Braves have been a bottom feeder program in the Missouri Valley Conference for years; a five win team as recently as 2015-16. But with every starter back from last year’s squad, the Braves have already won 11 games this season, and they’re beating teams by margin, including a 19 point wipeout over conference heavyweight Northern Iowa as underdogs in their last contest. Bradley has covered the spread in every previous home game this season, an emerging trend worth riding again tonight. Take Bradley. |
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01-02-18 | Spurs v. Knicks +5.5 | 100-91 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Take the New York Knicks (#504) When these two teams played last week in San Antonio, the Spurs played just about as well as they could play. All five starters scored in double digits and San Antonio finished the game with a 28-9 assist-to-turnover ratio while hitting better than 51% from the floor. Despite that level of excellence, the Spurs covered the spread by less than a bucket, a clear indicator of the value problems surrounding San Antonio these days. It’s surely worth noting that the Spurs did not have Kawhi Leonard for that game, but they will have him on the floor tonight. The markets like Leonard’s presence, driving the line up in early betting action. But the Spurs offense with Leonard on the floor this year is scoring 94.6 points per 100 possessions. To put that number in perspective, Sacramento ranks dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 99.8 points per possession. The Spurs are just 2-4 ATS with Leonard on the floor this year. Those numbers are likely to improve long term, but for right now, Leonard’s presence does not make them a ‘bet-on’ team. It’s also worth noting that San Antonio is just 5-6 ATS coming off a loss like the one they suffered at Detroit over the weekend. The Knicks are the ultimate home/road dichotomy team this season: 15-6 ATS playing at Madison Square Garden compared to 5-10 ATS on the highway. The Spurs, too, have been a home/road dichotomy team all season: 13-5-1 ATS in San Antonio, 6-12 ATS on the highway. Coming off a confidence inspiring road win at New Orleans, don’t be surprised if the Knicks pull off another upset victory tonight….or at least come pretty darn close. Take the Knicks. |
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01-02-18 | Blazers +9 v. Cavs | 110-127 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#501) Cleveland has been favored by -7 or higher on 16 occasions this season. The Cavs are 1-15 ATS in those ballgames, consistently unable to win by margin when stepping down in class. That’s a trend worth betting blindly at this stage of the campaign, but it’s not the only reason to get down a wager on the Blazers as road underdogs this evening. Cleveland is getting point guard Isiah Thomas onto the floor tonight for the first time since he was acquired by the Cavs in the offseason. When we’re talking about a team that is 19-5 SU in their last 24 games – even though they’re not winning by margin – a point guard transition at this stage of the campaign is a short term negative, not a positive. To make matters worse, Thomas will be matched up against Damian Lillard. The Blazers have only been without their starting point guard for the last five games – I expect no short term drop-off upon Lillard’s return, especially in a ‘statement’ game like this one for the road team. The Blazers are coming off a tough OT win in Chicago yesterday, and the markets knee-jerk against any team off an OT game that plays the following night. Just a little bit of digging shows clearly that the Blazers have been a bet-ON team in this role, cashing each of the last four times they played without rest. And it’s surely worth noting the Blazers 10-3 ATS mark as underdogs this year, another trend worth riding tonight! Take the Blazers. |
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01-02-18 | Alabama +3 v. Vanderbilt | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#527) Vandy has been a pointspread disaster area from Day 1 this season. They’re 0-fer the year ATS at home and have just one pointspread cover all year, losing by only seven as 9.5 point underdogs at Florida last Saturday. The Commodores are the only team in the SEC that enters conference play with a losing record. And yet Vandy is taking heavy $$ in early betting action on Tuesday. That offers savvy bettors a prime opportunity to cash in with this ‘Wrong Team Favored’ opportunity. Make no mistake about it – Avery Johnson has put together the best Alabama team of the 21st century. But the Crimson Tide didn’t take care of business as chalk throughout December, 0-5 ATS when laying -3 or higher. The markets have devalued Alabama as a result. Away from home, we’ve seen the Tide beat BYU and Memphis, while hanging tough against the likes of Arizona and Minnesota. Frosh point guard Collin Sexton has been nothing short of brilliant thusfar, and Johnson’s got a boatload of quality depth on a team that has lacked that in the past. Take the points! Take Alabama. |
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01-01-18 | Bucks +6 v. Raptors | 127-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#703) (Abbreviated write-ups on New Year’s Day) NOTE: I Initially entered this play wrong – we want our $$ on the BUCKS in this game! Most of the stuff you’re going to read about ‘playoff revenge’ in the NBA is nonsense, just hyping up a matchup. That’s not the case for the Bucks today, a team that gave Toronto a challenge in the first round last year before falling in six games. Giannis Antetokounmpo: "It definitely helps us. I was talking with (Bucks guard Sterling) Brown about it and he was like, 'You guys lost the series,' but I told him we won the first game (in Toronto), we lost the second one, but at the end of the day, we learned from it. I think we're more mature as a team, we're playing better and hopefully (Monday) we can get a win against these guys because we really want it." Matthew Dellavedova: "They ended our season early. Obviously, it was very disappointing so we're going to be very focused, locked in and ready to go." Dellavedova, talking about the Bucks last two games, hard fought wins and covers against the Thunder and T-wolves: "I think the two wins definitely helps. But, it's more the way we did it, the whole team being engaged and really having to fight for both those wins." DeMar DeRozan knows what’s coming: "They're a lot better (this year). Not just with (Eric) Bledsoe. You see how much Giannis improved. All those guys. They've got a great coach in Jason Kidd. They're well coached. ... Having a guy like Bledsoe definitely helps." Expect a tight game throughout and be sure to take at least a taste of the Bucks at+200 or higher on the moneyline. Take Milwaukee. |
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12-31-17 | Washington State +14 v. USC | 71-89 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Washington State (#859) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) USC isn’t short on talent. Right now, however, they are very short on team chemistry and defensive effort. From a local source: “They rely on one guy to go off,” said an assistant coach who scouted USC this year. “And the other guys just watch.” The Trojans have allowed opponents to shoot 49.5% from the floor against them in their last five games, 39% from three point range. They’re not forcing turnovers either; bad news against a Washington State squad that relies heavily on three point shooting. The Cougars have been excellent underdogs all year, cashing at an 80% clip when catching seven points or more, an emerging trend worth riding on New Year’s Eve. Take Washington St. |
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12-31-17 | Georgia +9 v. Kentucky | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#849) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including a SU win at Marquette and a neutral site victory over St Mary’s already this season. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Bulldogs at Marquette: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M.” Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide have the size to bang with Kentucky in the paint. And make no mistake about it – even after a blowout against Louisville, Kentucky’s offensive execution is still rather limited, bad news against Georgia’s feisty defense. On New Year’s Eve, I expect to be cashing another winning be on the underrated Bulldogs! Take Georgia. |
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12-31-17 | UL-Lafayette -4.5 v. Arkansas State | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana Lafayette (#843) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) There’s a class difference between these two squads that is not reflected in this short pointspread. Louisiana is a ‘class’ team in the Sun Belt. They enjoyed a trip to Cuba in August , a strong chemistry builder that has carried over to the regular season. Bob Marlin’s deep, veteran squad has proven their mettle in hostile road environments from Day 1 this season, including SU wins and covers on the highway against Little Rock, Louisiana Tech, and Nicholls State, along with neutral site wins and covers against Richmond and Iowa. I want my money ON the Rajun Cajuns as they step down in class away from hom. Arkansas State has attracted some betting market support in Mike Balado’s first year on the job with a handful of recent wins and covers against a handful of distracted foes during the holiday season. They are not, however, playing a lick of defense, a clear problem against a focused, superior foe on Sunday. Expect the Cajuns to dominate the low post, get easy looks and hit their free throws in a game that should NOT come down to the wire. Take Louisiana. |
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12-30-17 | Heat -1.5 v. Magic | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#503) The Heat didn’t lose at home to the Nets last night. They were thoroughly humiliated at home, trailing by as many as 38 points to a team that entered the game with a 12-22 record. Head coach Eric Spoelstra was not amused following the defeat: "I'm speechless about it. I don't know. We will keep on fighting and digging until we figure it out. I can guarantee you that. ... We have a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde quality to us that's extremely perplexing. Sometimes we compete at an extremely high level. You can see it, you can feel it. And then we have these games that are unexplainable." Spoelstra continued: "I wish we could get out there right now. I think the guys in the locker room feel that way. Our approach tomorrow has to feel different. It has to be different, starting with a film session and team meeting to prepare." If Miami was Dr Jekyll last night, we can expect Mr. Hyde this evening against a team that the Heat just beat by 18 points on the day after Christmas. Miami has been excellent at bouncing back off a shoddy showing, 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four tries off a loss, including outright upsets as underdogs at Charlotte and Boston. Orlando got key starters Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier back from injury in their last game, snapping a nine game skid with an upset win over the Detroit Pistons. Since winning five out of six over the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have been unable to string victories together at all: 0-4 SU and ATS following a win, with all four losses coming by double digit margins. ‘Fat & happy’ vs. ‘focused & hungry’ here! Take the Heat. |
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12-30-17 | Louisiana Tech +2 v. Marshall | 65-78 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana Tech (#595) For further reading, check out this link from a local source: https://www.wvgazettemail.com/sports/marshall_university/stakes-raised-as-louisiana-tech-visits-marshall/article_1c3dcfaf-8f9f-5eb3-b5b1-fc6389a2e227.html Expect Louisiana Tech to be as focused as it gets in Huntington this afternoon. The Bulldogs are in revenge mode against the Thundering Herd after Marshall ended their NCAA Tournament dreams last March with an upset win in the C-USA semifinals. La Tech was the #2 seed and had been 6-0 all time against Marshall, but the Bulldogs fell victim to a red hot night from three point range, as Marshall nailed 19 shots from beyond the arc in that ballgame. Don’t expect another 19 makes from three point land in the rematch – the veteran Bulldogs have held foes to just six makes per game from beyond the arc this year, stifling D on the perimeter. Meanwhile, Marshall is a good notch or two overvalued right now, feasting on the weak. And the Thundering Herd are really banged up – click the above link for details of how their limited depth is likely to be tested here. Wrong team favored! Take La Tech! |
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12-30-17 | New Mexico v. Nevada -13.5 | 74-77 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#588) For further reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.santafenewmexican.com/sports/now-it-gets-tough-lobos-set-sights-on-nevada/article_a7c6e399-ac3e-5fa4-bb90-b1f2521d28db.html https://www.abqjournal.com/1112776/mens-basketball-lobos-hope-for-strength-in-reserve.html http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2017/12/29/kendall-stephens-midst-one-nevadas-best-shooting-stretches-ever/991608001/ You wanna talk about an underrated home court? How about the Lawlor Center in Reno, where the Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS this year, 30-10 ATS in their last 40! New Mexico is playing uptempo, looking to push the pace and force turnovers. That strategy is going to lead to some big blowouts against inferior squads, like what the Lobos have done in their last three games, all at home against weaklings. But when the Lobos are stepping up in class, playing this style on the road against quality foes, they’re primed for a beatdown. We’ve seen it happen more than once already this year in ugly losses to Arizona, Colorado, Maryland – even UTEP and New Mexico State. And the Lobos are clearly going to have a problem in the paint against the Wolfpack. First year head coach Paul Weir: “One thing I know off the bat that we’re going to have to find a way to do better is rebound the basketball. They’re just physical. They’re athletic. They’re going to be a problem on the glass.” Nevada is really good, a bet-on team all the way right now, the class of the Mountain West Conference this year, and a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting marketplace. Expect their conference home opener to be a one-sided affair, a beatdown just waiting for the opening tip. Take Nevada. |
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12-30-17 | St. Mary's v. BYU UNDER 140.5 | 74-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Take BYU – St Mary’s UNDER (#619-620) For further reading, check out this links from a local source: http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/basketball/men/byu-men-s-hoops-cougars-and-gaels-will-have-similar/article_9ade56e0-56ea-538d-9371-e24b8eb009c3.html St Mary’s is anything BUT a ‘push the tempo’ type of squad in the Randy Bennett era, a team that relies on feisty defense and a slow paced, patient halfcourt offense for their success. That’s worked repeatedly against BYU, including a 3-0 SU and ATS sweep against the Cougars last year. The final two games were both totaled in a similar range to what we’ve got today: 141 and 140.5. Those games produced 131 and 127 points, both staying Under the total by double digit margins. BYU spent most of the first 12 years under Dave Rose doing the exact opposite, pushing the pace at every opportunity. This year is different, as clearly evidenced by these quotes (and their 6-2 mark to the Under in their last eight ballgames): Leading scorer Yoeli Childs: “They’re going to come out and see a totally different team. A team that shares the ball a little bit better and plays with a better pace. I think that we’ve worked really hard, especially on the defensive end, at being able to guard what they do.” Second leading scorer Elijah Bryant: “During the summer we’ve kind of taken a different approach and focused on defense to be able to win those low-scoring games. That’s what Saint Mary’s does. Their pace is one of the lowest in the country, and we’re ready for that.” This total is lined exactly where it was last year, but we can expect a much slower pace from BYU and much more defensive intensity. Take the Under |
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12-29-17 | Utah v. Oregon -10 | 66-56 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Oregon (#850) For additional reading check out these two local sources: http://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2017/12/28/utes-will-be-short-handed-as-they-open-pac-12-mens-basketball-play-in-the-northwest/ http://registerguard.com/rg/sports/basketball/36288224-61/oregon-ducks-basketball-not-improving-as-quickly-as-dana-altman-hoped-heading-into-pac-12-play.html.csp# To say that Dana Altman has owned Larry Krystkowiak is something of an understatement. Oregon swept two meetings against Utah last year, both SU and ATS. They won and covered all three games against the Utes in 2016 and won and covered both meetings in 2015; a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS vs. Utah over the past three seasons. And there’s little reason to expect a different result tonight! Utah is really banged up right now. Leading scorer, senior David Collette is hurt. Leading three point shooter, senior Gabe Bealer, is hurt as well. Neither guy will be at 100% if they suit up at all. Frosh forward Donnie Tillman has been their best scorer off the bench. He’s out for sure, along with Chris Seeley. Utah has lost both previous road games (BYU and Butler) by double digit margins. Coach Krystkowiak: “Sometimes I think if you have a group of guys that you’ve been fortunate enough to coach for two or three years, there can be a little bit more gray area and you rely on your players to make plays and not have turnovers and kind of understand each other. I still think there’s enough newness with the roster that we have right now [that] within that gray area we were finding some mistakes.” Oregon is young, the type of team we can expect to improve gradually as the season progresses. But they’re good enough to support right now; playing elite level defense, hitting their free throws and capable of winning their PAC-12 home opener by a double digit margin tonight. Quack Quack! Take the Ducks. |
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12-29-17 | Nets v. Heat -6.5 | 111-87 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#812) When Joel Embiid sits in Philly, the markets react accordingly – he’s an impact player on both ends of the court. But for whatever reason, the betting markets aren’t as excited by Hassan Whiteside’s ‘in or out’ status for Miami, despite the fact that Whiteside is every bit the impact player that Embiid is! Whiteside missed 12 games before returning to face Orlando earlier in the week. Lo and behold, the Heat won by 18, their biggest margin of victory at home all year. Yet the markets have yawned on his presence. Underrated point guard Goran Dragic is a similar story, now back in the lineup after missing three games last week. Rested and ready – only one game since the 23rd – I’m expecting Whiteside and Dragic to be impact players tonight for a Miami team showing signs of success in the favorite’s role. The Nets aren’t playing with a full roster either – their top two point guards are out long term, Jahlil Okafor won’t suit up until January and sharpshooter Caris LeVert is banged up, very questionable to play this evening. What’s left is a hodgepodge of mismatched role players who aren’t particularly involved on the defensive end of the court. That’s why the Nets are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight ballgames despite hot shooting from the perimeter. They’ve averaged 15 makes per game while shooting 40% from beyond the arc in their last five contests, yet they’ve still only won once and covered twice during that span. Playing their third game in four nights, look for the Nets to be hard pressed to match Miami’s energy level or execution here. Expect a comfortable win for the home favorite. Take the Heat. |
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12-27-17 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +4 | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#734) For additional reading, click here: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-sdsu-basketball-wyoming-laramie-20171226-story.html The quotes from the Aztecs tell the story here (click the above link for all of them), with three frosh and five other Aztecs that have never set foot on the court in Laramie. Head coach Brian Dutcher knows what’s coming, after his team pulled the upset over Gonzaga at home last weekend: “I tried to set them up going into Gonzaga that our next two games are going to be brutally tough. I tried to lump Gonzaga and Wyoming together. I didn’t want them solely focusing on Gonzaga in our practices for 12 days. I’ve tried to tell them how hard it’s going to be at Wyoming.” So what did Dutcher do? He went with his heart, not with his head, letting the Aztecs players go home for Christmas. They’re dealing with winter storm warnings on the flight to Laramie, and they’ll be facing an undervalued, veteran foe with three seniors and a junior starting. The Cowboys won the CBI title last March on the heels of a 23 win season, no pushovers. Off a no-show game over the holidays vs Northern Colorado, expect the Cowboys to bounce back strong tonight! Take Wyoming. |
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12-25-17 | Cavs +5 v. Warriors | 92-99 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#703). (Abbreviated write-up for Christmas Day) Taking the Cavs plus the points has been a remarkably consistent moneymaker so far this NBA season. The Cavs have been underdogs on five previous occasions this season. They are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in those games, the lone loss coming by only four points at Houston. Cleveland has been a terrible favorite and miserable ATS at home, but this is their role! The Warriors won’t be suiting up Steph Curry again this afternoon. They are 3-7 ATS without Curry in the lineup this season, including a SU home loss to Sacramento and a 15 point loss to the Nuggets in their last home game. They’ve also struggled ATS when stepping up in class. The Warriors haven’t been underdogs all year, but as shorter favorites (-7.5 or less), they’re a 33% ATS proposition — moneylosers! Playing their third game in four days against a rested Cavs squad, look for the Warriors to struggle to build any kind of margin today…if they win the game at all. Take the Cavs. |
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12-21-17 | Kansas v. Stanford +15.5 | 75-54 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#550) For more details on this matchup, read this preview from KC.com http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/campus-corner/article190994849.html Stanford is ‘head and shoulders’ better now compared to where they were at the start of the season, or frankly, at any point last year in Jared Haase’s first season on the job. Let’s be real – Stanford was a major disappointment last year, finishing 14-17 overall, 6-12 in the PAC-12 with a veteran squad. This year started out every bit as bad – a home loss to Eastern Washington; ugly blowouts away from home to Florida and North Carolina; bad losses to Portland State and Long Beach State as favorites. The Cardinal opened 2-8 ATS. But Stanford is coming off back-2-back wins, real momentum boosters for a squad that has been thoroughly devalued in the betting markets. Their defense has been dynamite of late, holding foes to 37% from the floor in their last five games. Stanford has depth and interior size, capable of banging in the paint with the Jayhawks; while Bill Self’s squad isn’t one of his deeper teams. On a one game West Coast trip right before Christmas, look for the Jayhawks to get tested in a relatively competitive game. Take Stanford. |
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12-21-17 | Celtics -3 v. Knicks | 93-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#505) There’s no need to overthink this one. Boston off a loss is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets in the NBA this season. Their only set of back-2-back losses came in the first two games of the season. Since that second loss, back on October 18th, the Celtics are 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS off a defeat, winning each and every one of those games by six points or more. Coming off a dismal second half in a home loss to Miami on Wednesday, it’s a step up spot for a team that’s been really, really good at stepping up. The Knicks are expected to get Kristaps Porzingas back in the lineup tonight, ensuring that this line isn’t going to skyrocket between now and the opening tip. They’ve played fine without Porzingas of late, notching four straight wins prior to an ugly loss at Charlotte on Wednesday. But the Knicks have been living on hot three point shooting, better than 40% over their last five games. Boston’s defense on the perimeter is as good as any in the NBA, as clearly evidenced by their first meeting with the Knicks this season. That game was a 110-89 blowout that saw New York make just one three pointer for the entire contest….. Take the Celtics. |
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12-20-17 | Pacers -4 v. Hawks | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#705) The Hawks are not a team with any significant home court edge these days, just 4-10 SU on this floor. They’ll occasionally have a strong game or a strong closeout, like they did against the injury riddled Heat on Monday Night. But in recent weeks, we’ve seen the Nets win o this floor by 20, the Raptors by 34 and the Clippers by 13. And coming off a win, the Hawks have been a clear ‘bet-against’, 0-6 SU in this role with only two of those defeats coming by single digit margins. Opposing teams are getting healthy offensively against Atlanta’s shoddy defense. They’ve allowed just shy of 50% shooting over their last eight games, with five opponents hanging at least 110 on Mike Budenholzer’s squad. Last time out, the Heat were without their starting point guard and two other starters, including their top creator from the wing, James Johnson. They still hung 104 on Atlanta and were in position to steal the game at the end. The Pacers have been an undervalued commodity from Day 1 this year, 19-12 ATS despite suffering three SU losses in their last four ballgames, including a one point heartbreaker on the second night of back-2-backs against the Celtics on Monday. Victor Oladipo is the type of emerging star that Mike Budenholzer can only dream of right now. The Myles Turner/Domantas Sabonis low post duo have been outstanding. Lance Stephenson’s energy off the bench has been a legitimate difference maker. Bojan Bogdanovic is raining three’s. Darren Collison has a 4.0 assist-to-turnover ratio at the point. In short, despite low expectations, there’s nothing fraudulent about the Pacers early season success. They’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven tries off a loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. I expect them to bounce back strong off Monday’s loss with a comfortable road win tonight. Take the Pacers. |
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12-20-17 | Raptors -2.5 v. Hornets | 129-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#701) Everything broke right for the Hornets on Monday Night as they snapped their losing streak with a win over the Knicks. New York was shorthanded and was flat from the opening tip. Charlotte got huge games from role players Frank Kaminsky, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams. Charlotte’s weak bench had a big night and New York’s weak guard play couldn’t stop Charlotte from penetrating the lane for easy buckets. That was Monday. Toronto presents a much tougher challenge for the Hornets, especially given Charlotte’s lack of home court edge these days. Let’s not forget that prior to the win over the Knicks, Charlotte had lost five straight on this floor, 0-5 ATS in defeat. We should note that the Hornets have been miserable off a win – their last two game winning streak (SU or ATS) came before Thanksgiving! Nor should we forget what happened when the Hornets matched up with Toronto last month; a game where the Raptors had 71 points at halftime, cruising to victory because the Hornets couldn’t stop Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan from penetrating and creating good looks in the paint. Toronto is clicking on all cylinders now, racking up nine wins in their last ten ballgames. Dwayne Casey has tweaked his offense, looking to push the pace and create more balanced scoring, not just their All Star guards. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan: "(The new offense is) coming along well. We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing”. I concur! Take the Raptors. |
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12-19-17 | Cavs v. Bucks OVER 216.5 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Cleveland OVER (#505-506) These two teams have played twice already this season, cashing Over bets both times. The Cavs have dissected the Bucks defense like so many others that they face – without trouble, hanging 124 and 116 on Milwaukee in those two meetings. And frankly, most teams are scoring on the Bucks without too much trouble these days – they’ve allowed 115+ in each of their last three contests, with opponents hitting better than 48% of their shots against Jason Kidd’s squad in their last five games. Milwaukee didn’t have point guard Eric Bledsoe on the roster in those first two meetings. With him in the lineup, their offensive production has been transformed without a dramatic increase in their pace of play. The result of that? Milwaukee has now scored 100+ in 12 straight games, 10-1-1 to the Over during that span. That’s an ongoing trend that has gotten zero publicity and is attracting no betting market attention because it’s not about the advanced metrics -- the Bucks pace of play isn’t going through a major transformation. Here’s the kicker, the quote from Coach Kidd AFTER this run of Overs for Milwaukee: “Right now for some reason we're just not making open shots, but we've got to keep getting those shots and hopefully they turn into makes.” Against the Cavs shoddy defense (#27 in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.9 points per 100 possessions), look for those shots to ‘turn into makes’ tonight! Take the OVER. |
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12-19-17 | Illinois-Chicago v. Illinois State OVER 144.5 | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Illinois State – Illinois-Chicago OVER (#521-522) My clients and I cashed a winner betting Illinois State Over the total at BYU less than two weeks ago. Here’s a brief excerpt from that write-up: “Illinois State wants to get out and run, pushing the tempo at every opportunity. Head coach Dan Muller wants to play his style tonight, coming off a game against Tulsa where the Redbirds were able to force their opponent into playing at their preferred uptempo pace: " We got them (Tulsa) sped up a little bit. The press is going to be good for us as we get healthier and I can rest guys some more. I hope we can press more." The Redbirds followed up their BYU Over with Overs against Murray State and Ole Miss in their last two games, pulling the outright upset in Oxford against the Rebels largely as a result of their switch to an uptempo pace. This is not a good defensive team; neither is their opponent, Illinois-Chicago, a Flames team that has allowed opponents to hit 50% of their shots against them over their last five games and 56% shooting in three previous road games (all of which FLEW Over the total). Expect fireworks. Take the OVER. |
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12-18-17 | Texas-Arlington +12.5 v. Creighton | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Texas- Arlington (#729) The Mavericks won 27 games last year but didn’t get a Big Dance bid, relegated to the NIT. With a team that’s every bit as talented this year, games like tonight at Creighton really matter for UTA, a HUGE game for the road underdog. Arlington returned loads of talent from that 27 win squad, starting with their senior point guard Erick Neal and senior big man Kevin Hervey. 7 foot graduate transfer Johnny Hamilton is a nasty low post defender and the team’s third leading scorer. Head coach Scott Cross has a rotation that goes nine players deep; only Neal and Hervey average more than 30 minutes per game - this a team we can support comfortably in this pointspread range. Arlington does one thing well, where most talented mid-majors come up short – this team is downright nasty at the defensive end of the court, holding foes to 41% shooting for the season, just 39% in their last five games. That matters, in particular, against the hot shooting Bluejays, who have averaged 90 points per game this season on 51% shooting. That shooting touch has helped them notch multiple blowouts over lesser foes – three of their last four victories have come by 40+ point margins. But when Creighton has stepped up in class against solid competition – like they’ll face tonight, even though UTA is not a ‘name’ program – the results have been very different. Against Nebraska, Gonzaga, Baylor, UCLA and Northwestern – the Bluejays had two losses and three relatively tight wins. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take UT-Arlington. |
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12-18-17 | Heat -3 v. Hawks | 104-110 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#705) The Hawks are not a team with any significant home court edge these days, just 3-10 SU on this floor. In recent weeks, we’ve seen the Nets win by 20, the Raptors by 34 and the Clippers by 13 here in Atlanta. My clients and I cashed a winning bet on the Pistons here in Atlanta last week, and Detroit snapped their seven game losing streak with an easy, double digit blowout victory. Opposing teams are getting healthy offensively against Atlanta’s shoddy defense. They’ve allowed just shy of 50% shooting over their last seven games, with five opponents hanging at least 110 on Mike Budenholzer’s squad. Coming off a feisty effort in Memphis on Friday, I’m expecting the Hawks to be hard pressed to match that energy level or offensive execution tonight, even with rookie John Collins back in the lineup off an extended injury absence. The Heat have been a relatively simple handicap in 2017. They’ve been an ATS disaster area at home, covering just two pointspreads in 13 games at American Airlines Arena. But when Miami hits the highway, they’ve been consistent moneymakers, with SU wins (by margin) at LA, Utah, Phoenix, Washington, Minnesota, Chicago, Brooklyn, Memphis and Charlotte. This pointspread is low because Miami is dealing with the injury bug, expected to be without center Hassan Whiteside and playmaker James Johnson. Both are impact injuries, true. But they’ve won four of their last five – including three road games – without Whiteside manning the low post. And Johnson’s absence is at least partially mitigated by the expected return of Justice Winslow this evening. Look for a comfortable win for the road favorite. Take the Heat. |
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12-17-17 | North Carolina v. Tennessee +2 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#812) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). For additional reading, click this link https://247sports.com/college/tennessee/Article/Roy-Williams-North-Carolina-Tar-Heels-have-no-idea-of-Tennessee-Vols-basketballs-toughness-112285695 Or this one: http://www.thedailytimes.com/sports/vols-set-for-rematch-with-defending-champion-tar-heels/article_cf403cfd-f3f5-5b62-bcf3-fc5a087fee73.html The Tar Heels escaped with a two point win over Tennessee at home in Chapel Hill last year. The rematch in Knoxville has all the makings of a Vols upset. Roy Williams knows what’s coming from Rick Barnes squad today; North Carolina’s first game following a twelve day layoff, and their first true road game since knocking off struggling Stanford nearly a month ago: “You’re gonna win some games, just like (Western Carolina), when we were just more gifted. I think you have to understand that, and you have to try to prepare for the really good teams. We’re gonna face a challenge on Sunday. It will hit ‘em right in the mouth, right from the start of the game. I’m really anxious, really interested and anxious to see how we’re gonna play, because they’re gonna hit us right between the eyes, and are we gonna lay down in the floor in a fetal position and start yelling for mama, or are we gonna play basketball? I told ‘em that I think some of ‘em are gonna probably lay down in the middle of the floor in a fetal position and start yelling for mama.” The Vols are as tough as nails, and they’ve proven their mettle with wins against Purdue and NC State and a down to the wire battle with Villanova. They’re plenty good enough to pull the upset today….. Take Tennessee. |
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12-16-17 | Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Iowa State | 65-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Northern Iowa (#605) (For additional reading, click here: http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/college/mens-basketball/unis-defense-hopes-to-cool-red-hot-isu-in-classic-20171215 ) The results don’t show it – yet – but Iowa State is waaaay down from where they’ve been in recent seasons` Steve Prohm’s squad has had a top 20 RPI and at least 23 wins in each of the last four seasons. But the core of that group graduated: 73% of the scoring, 56% of the rebounds and 78% of the assists from last year’s squad gone. The Cyclones are 7-0 since their 0-2 start, including a solid home win over Iowa and neutral site wins against Boise State and Tulsa. This team wants to push the pace at every opportunity. But they’ve been dealing with a barrage of injuries in their backcourt, severely affecting their practice regimen. Coach Prohm said that he hasn’t been able to run 5-on-5 drills in practice for the last week and a half because he hasn’t had enough bodies. Northern Iowa isn’t going to run with anybody. The Panthers are truly battle tested after facing SMU, NC State, Villanova and UNLV. It’s surely worth noting that Ben Jacobson’s Panthers forced all four of those quality foes to play at their preferred slowdown pace. It’s also worth noting that Northern Iowa was good enough to win three of those games in SU fashion as underdogs while finishing +12 on the boards – this team has the interior size to bang with the big boys. And the Panthers, unlike Iowa State, are finally fully healthy. Head coach Ben Jacobson: “It’s been great to have (a full roster) on game night knowing that Hunter (Rhodes) and Wyatt (Lohaus) are healthy. Even (Austin) Phyfe, after missing that week or so of games and practices. It’s been great on game day, but, more valuable — maybe six of one, half dozen of the other — on the practice floor. With Hunter being a senior, with Wyatt being a junior, we missed those guys on the practice floor. So our practices have gotten better and they’ll continue to get better as those guys get even healthier.” Wrong team favored here! Take Northern Iowa. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia -2.5 v. Massachusetts | 62-72 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#541) For additional reading, click these links: http://onlineathens.com/sports/dogbytes/2017-12-16/georgia-treks-umass-after-break-finals And http://www.recorder.com/UMass-Georgia-prev-14370920 UMass is a bet-against team today. They’re coming off their best game of the season, knocking off Providence, their second straight win following a four game skid. Head coach Matt McCall: “That’s the biggest concern. We confronted that when we got back in the gym …. For the past 48 hours everyone is telling us how great we are.” The Minutemen have been dealing with finals all week, as well. UMass is a one trick pony offensively – Luwane Pipkins is their only double digit scorer, hoisting more than twice as many shots as anyone else on the team. This is a 5-5 squad picked to finish near the bottom of the A-10, not a squad primed to pull back-2-back upsets. My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including their SU win at Marquette earlier in the month. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M.” UMass doesn’t have the interior size to bang with Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide in the paint. Expect Georgia’s defense and rebounding to be difference makers here, cashing another winning bet on the underrated Bulldogs! Take Georgia. |
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12-16-17 | Virginia Tech v. Kentucky -5.5 | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#530) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). For additional reading, click this link http://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sidelines-with-john-clay/article190040579.html Virginia Tech is getting waaaaaay too much respect from the betting markets for their hot start. I understand that Buzz Williams has a veteran squad with four returning starters from a 22 win NCAA Tourney team last year. I also know that they haven’t stepped up in class yet this season, favored in every previous lined game. And the Hokies 55% shooting for the season – best in college basketball – isn’t likely to hold up against this caliber of athlete on the highway. Kentucky has held foes to 38% shooting for the campaign. They’re undefeated at home, with six of their seven victories coming by margins of eight points or more – enough to cover this pointspread. They’re battle tested, showing well for themselves in a battle against Kansas. Plain and simple – there’s a class difference here that is not respected in this short pointspread. Expect Kentucky to pull away and win by margin. Take Kentucky. |
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12-15-17 | Clippers +10 v. Wizards | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take the LA Clippers (#805) I’ve got a clear ‘buy’ sign on the Clippers right now. They’ve won three in a row, including a one point victory over the same Wizards team they’ll face tonight. Head coach Doc Rivers, following LA’s win at Orlando on Wednesday: “We're just playing hard. We don't have the luxury of talent, where we can where we can out-talent the other teams. We're just going to go out and play harder than the other team." Even without the sometimes injured Austin Rivers, the usually injured Blake Griffin or the always injured Danilo Gallinari, the Clips are not a hopeless basket case. Milos Teodisic has given the team a real spark at the point since his return to the floor. DeAndre Jordan remains a dominant low post defender and rebounder. Lou Williams is giving LA a spark off the bench that Jamal Crawford (who had that role for years) would be proud of. And make no mistake about it – the markets have adjusted LA down, way down, since the beginning of the season – this is a team that actually offers legit value at this stage of the campaign. The Wizards got John Wall back following his 11 game injury absence in their last game, but Washington failed to cover as -7.5 point favorites. This isn’t new or different for Scott Brooks team. My numbers show the Wizards with a truly dismal 5-11 ATS mark when laying points this year; just 2-9 ATS when laying -9.5 or less. That, folks, is a track record worth betting against when facing a feisty foe that has been covering pointspread in bunches of late. Take the Clippers. |
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12-15-17 | Pistons +4.5 v. Pacers | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#801) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner backing the Pistons on the road in Atlanta last night. And, from all indications, the Pistons sure look like a ‘bet-on’ squad again tonight on the second night of back-2-backs against the Pacers. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting Detroit. “The national press seems to think the sky is falling in Detroit, losers of seven consecutive games since their 14-6 start. Yes, the Pistons have struggled of late. But make no mistake about it – those struggles can easily be explained without going into full-on panic mode. Each of the Pistons last seven opponents would be in the playoffs if the season ended today – there’s no shame in losing to the Celtics, Warriors, Spurs, Wizards, Bucks or 76ers. “Four of the first five losses all came by five points or less, just games where things didn’t break right at the end. The Pistons finally hit rock bottom in an ugly blowout home loss to the Nuggets before they started this road swing. Van Gundy: “That was an embarrassment.” Expect a different offensive approach tonight. Van Gundy: “We will shift our priorities in terms of play calling. Run some things more, run some things less, not run some things. I don’t think our offensive approach has been good enough to help these guys, so you’ll see a difference there.” The Pistons did exactly what I expected them to do last night, pounding the Hawks into submission. And there’s every reason to think that Detroit is going to carry that momentum forward into Indiana this evening. Stan Van Gundy isn’t fooling around – he sent his starters back into the game last night with a 21 point lead in the fourth quarter. His quote: “It's been two weeks of hell. I said, `We're going to make sure we get this one’.” It’s surely worth noting that 11 Pistons saw double digits in minutes last night, with nobody playing more than 31 minutes, leaving them relatively fresh on the second night of back-2-backs. And it’s also worth noting Detroit’s 9-1 ATS mark as underdogs of +4 or higher this season, an under-the-radar angle that’s been cashing tickets for the last two months! Facing a Pacers team that will be hard pressed to match their energy from the huge game against OKC on Wednesday, I expect the Pistons to win this game in SU fashion…..or at least come pretty darn close! Take the Pistons. |
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12-14-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Hawks | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#501) The national press seems to think the sky is falling in Detroit, losers of seven consecutive games since their 14-6 start. Yes, the Pistons have struggled of late. But make no mistake about it – those struggles can easily be explained without going into full-on panic mode. Each of the Pistons last seven opponents would be in the playoffs if the season ended today – there’s no shame in losing to the Celtics, Warriors, Spurs, Wizards, Bucks or 76ers. Four of the first five losses all came by five points or less, just games where things didn’t break right at the end. And most of their current struggles have everything to do with a shooting slump from their starters. The combination of Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond, Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris made only 11 shots against Boston on Sunday, then hit 7-31 from the field with 15 turnovers against Denver on Tuesday. The Pistons hit rock bottom in that ugly blowout home loss to the Nuggets. Van Gundy: “That was an embarrassment.” Expect a different offensive approach tonight. Van Gundy: “We will shift our priorities in terms of play calling. Run some things more, run some things less, not run some things. I don’t think our offensive approach has been good enough to help these guys, so you’ll see a difference there.” The Hawks are not a team with any significant home court edge these days, just 3-9 SU on this floor. In recent weeks, we’ve seen the Nets win by 20, the Raptors by 34 and the Clippers by 13 here in Atlanta. Opposing teams are getting healthy offensively against Atlanta’s shoddy defense. They’ve allowed 50% shooting over their last five games, with all five opponents hanging at least 110 on Mike Budenholzer’s squad. Coming off a feisty effort in Cleveland on Tuesday, I’m expecting the Hawks to be hard pressed to match that energy level or offensive execution tonight, even with rookie John Collins expected back in the lineup off an extended injury absence. This is a ‘get well’ spot for the road favorite! Take the Pistons. |
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12-13-17 | Portland State +15 v. Oregon | Top | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Portland State (#735) Portland State came into the season as a complete afterthought in the college basketball world. The highly influential Blue Ribbon guide ranked the Vikings as the #8 team in the Big Sky Conference; coming off a 15-16 season and starting a new rebuild with first year head coach Barret Peery, and the markets haven’t given them an inkling of respect from Day 1 That hasn’t changed, as clearly evidenced by tonight’s pointspread as Portland State travels to face Oregon in Eugene, a ‘one-way-rivalry’ game for the smaller conference, in-state Vikings. And from all indications, the preseason predictions about the Vikings were completely off-base; a team with a highly talented trio of guards that is giving opponents fits right now! Seniors Bryce Canda and Deonte North as well as junior Michael Mayhew ensure that Portland State gets good guard play every night; exactly what I’m looking for in this pointspread range. The results have been rather dramatic, despite the betting market insistence that Portland State is an afterthought. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their eight previous lined games, an under-the-radar angle that still holds ample value moving forward. They’ve won straight up as an underdog five times, including back-2-back SU road wins as dogs last week. But the most impressive showings have come when Portland State has stepped up in class. This team led Duke at halftime before wearing down late. Coach K, after the game: “We beat a heck of a team tonight. "I thought Portland State played amazingly hard and well. They knocked us back.” Butler is an elite team again this year. Portland State lost to the Bulldogs by a single bucket, a wire-2-wire cover. They forced a whopping 28 turnovers in an outright upset over Stanford. Portland State is a bet-on team and the markets have shown no inclination to make the appropriate – and dramatic – adjustment to price them correctly moving forward. Oregon is really young and waaaaaay down after Dana Altman lost four of his five starters from last year’s 33 win Final Four squad. Altman is giving three freshmen major minutes. They lost at home as favorites vs. Boise, lost on neutral floors against Oklahoma and as a favorite vs. Connecticut. DePaul took the Ducks to overtime. Last time out Texas Southern hung wire-2-wire at Knight Arena, losing by only six as 20 point dogs. No surprise here if tonight’s game is every bit as tight! Altman knows what’s coming: “It is going to be a very difficult game. I knew that after seeing them in PK80 and how hard they played." Big Ticket: Take Portland State. |
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12-13-17 | Thunder v. Pacers +1 | 100-95 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#706) The results do not lie. Indiana is a better basketball team than OKC right now, and it’s not even close. The betting markets have refused to accept that from Day 1 this season. And that, folks, is why the Pacers are 17-10 ATS this season while the Thunder are 8-18 against the spread, burning their backers $$, time after time. OKC has the star power with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony joining reigning NBA MVP Russell Westbrook. That star power has certainly affected the OKC power rating, despite their continued struggles. What the Thunder’s stars don’t have is any idea how to complement each other’s games on either end of the court. OKC has dropped in nearly every statistical category from last year. They were the NBA’s best rebounding team last year. Without Enes Kanter, they rank #11 this season. Their offensive numbers are even worse, currently ranked #23 in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and #25 in assists per game. No surprise, then, that despite the star power, OKC has ALREADY lost 14 times as a FAVORITE this season. They’ve been at their worst on the highway, 0-9 ATS in their last nine tries. This is a ‘bet-against’ team until proven otherwise, plain and simple. That’s most assuredly not the case for the Pacers, an undervalued commodity from Day 1 this year, entering tonight’s game on a four game winning streak, including an impressive upset over the Cavs, ending Cleveland’s 13 game winning streak. Victor Oladipo has put up better numbers than Paul George in his first season with Indiana. The Myles Turner/Domantas Sabonis duo at center have been outstanding. Lance Stephenson’s energy off the bench has been a legitimate difference maker. Bojan Bogdanovic is raining three’s. Darren Collison has a 4.2 assist-to-turnover ratio at the point. In short, despite low expectations, there’s nothing fraudulent about the Pacers early season success. OKC has no ‘switch’ that they are about to flip on. Right now, Indiana is CLEARLY the better of these two teams and I expect them to show it for the ESPN cameras tonight! Take the Pacers. |
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12-12-17 | Hawks +11.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#501) The results do not lie. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been lined as double digit favorites of -10 or higher on eight different occasions this year. The Cavs are 0-8 ATS in those ballgames. In 14 previous home games this year, the Cavs have covered the spread exactly twice. Yet the early money has shown for Cleveland, with Tristan Thompson expected to rejoin the lineup (although Kevin Love is very questionable). Thompson will certainly help the Cavs long term, but I’m not expecting him to be an ATS difference maker in his first game back on the floor following an extended absence. Heck, this team has only won four games out of 27 so far this season by 12 points or more, what they’ll need to cover the spread tonight. The Cavs are a clear ‘bet-against’ vs. lesser competition at home in this pointspread range. The Hawks have given the Cavs all kinds of trouble in the first two meetings this season. Atlanta won SU at Cleveland in the first meeting and covered the spread wire-2-wire in a seven point home loss in the rematch – the Cavs have already gotten their ‘revenge’. Atlanta has been excellent off a loss: 5-0 ATS in their last five tries. And they’ve been excellent catching points on the highway – only one of their last eleven road losses has come by more than eleven points. Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer benched his star point guard Dennis Schroeder down the stretch of the fourth quarter in the Hawks four point loss to the Knicks over the weekend. We’ve seen this happen a handful of times before, and Schroeder tends to bounce back STRONG in situations like this one. No surprise here if the Hawks are the ‘energy’ team this evening in a game where I expect them to battle down to the wire. Big Ticket: Take the Hawks. |
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12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati -11 | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#522) First and foremost count me as a Bearcats believer. Mick Cronin might well have his best team in his 11 years on the job, and that includes last year’s 30 win squad. This is a stable program – you’re not seeing kids transferring in and out of Cinci every year like you do at so many schools. Cronin preaches defense – last week, they spent every practice focused on that end of the floor. Cronin’s quote speaks volumes: "Our identity has got to be about playing extremely hard and being committed to getting defensive stops, and then your offense comes from your defense. Getting out-rebounded is a product of a terrible defense.” Bearcats senior forward Gary Clark: “We've got to get stops…we've been really trying to preach defense, really just getting back to getting a stop." Cinci is returning home off a defensive meltdown on the road at Xavier, followed by a late game fail on a neutral floor against Florida; a game where they committed a season high 21 turnovers and went scoreless in the last minute and a half with the score tied at 60. There’s no shame in either of those losses, two elite foes. Mississippi State might be 8-0 right now, but they’re certainly not elite as Ben Howland struggles to build a program, like so many other big name SEC basketball head coaches. The Bulldogs aren’t ready for this challenge. Mississippi State ranks #349 out of #351 D1 teams in strength of schedule so far. They legitimately haven’t played ANYBODY of consequence to get to 8-0, and they haven’t been able to put away bad teams – Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, Jacksonville State and Dayton all hung tough with the Bulldogs in Starkville. Now hitting the highway for the first time all season against a focused, hungry, defensive minded ballclub, Mississippi State is primed to get blown out. Take Cinci. |
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12-11-17 | Raptors -5 v. Clippers | 91-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#711) The Raptors are a relatively consistent team to handicap in early season NBA action. When the Raptors face a team that can stop their All Star guard duo from creating in the paint, they struggle. When they face a team that cannot stop dribble penetration from the guard positions, Toronto has had a fairly easy time winning games and covering pointspreads. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan: "(The new uptempo offense is) coming along well. We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing”. Since Blake Griffin got hurt, the Clippers have let go of the rope on the defensive end of the court. In five games without him, LA has allowed 114 points per game on 50.5% shooting allowed, giving up more than 29 assisted baskets per game. They’ve struggled to defend the paint or the three point line. And with defensive minded point guard Patrick Beverly out long term as well, we can expect those defensive woes to continue even if Milo Teodosic (questionable) gets back on the floor for the first time since October. On Saturday, the Clippers got 35 points off the bench from Lou Williams on an afternoon where Austin Rivers was hitting 3’s and both Danilo Gallinari and Montrezl Harrell had big offensive games, stealing a one point win against the Wizards. But it’s surely worth noting that the Clips haven’t won back-2-back home games since October; a team that is 5-15 in their last 20 games. LA has been a terrible underdog, just 2-7 ATS when catching four points or more. And the Raptors are 100% perfect SU and ATS on the second night of back-2-backs, including a 34 point win at Atlanta in their last try in this role. And the Raptors are relatively fresh off an easy blowout in Sacramento last night. Expect another comfortable win for the road favorite. Take the Raptors. |
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12-10-17 | NC-Wilmington v. LSU -12 | 84-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Take LSU (#524) Abbreviated write-up on a busy NFL Sunday. For additional reading click here http://www.nola.com/lsu/index.ssf/2017/12/lsu_hoping_work_on_defense_ove.html and here http://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20171209/richmonds-return-gives-uncw-boost LSU hasn’t played since November. Coach Will Wade has been running a defensive mini-camp during their downtime. Guard Tremont Waters: “I'm tired of practicing. I'm ready to get back on the court and show everybody that we've been being yelled at about defense all week and that we're going to come out and improve. We can't score on offense in practice. Everything is being scored on defense. You have to get a stop or a deflection or something like that. That's pretty much what he's incorporated into practice the last week……I feel like the team is coming together.” That’s a ‘bet-on’ quote in a ‘bet-on’ spot. Today’s opponent, NC Wilmington, is anything BUT ‘bet-on’ right now. The Seahawks won 25 and 29 games the last two years, then lost the four starters and the coach who carried them to all that success. First year, first time head coach CB McGrath hasn’t covered a pointspread yet – the Seahawks are 0-fer the season in lined games, and their only two SU wins came against legit bottom feeders. Throw in some depth issues (second article) and we can expect a blowout. Take LSU. |
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12-09-17 | Cincinnati -1.5 v. Florida | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#807) Florida has had a rough couple of weeks and it’s not likely to get any easier today! Since their 5-0 start, Florida has lost three in a row. The first was understandable – they took Duke to the wire. But that was followed by ugly SU losses as big chalk against Florida State (-9) and Loyola-Chicago (-16.5). The biggest culprit in those last two defeats was ice cold three point shooting, just 8-44 from beyond the arc. But that’s not the only issue for the Gators right now, a team that just allowed 52% shooting from Loyola in Gainesville while struggling mightily on the glass in every recent ‘step-up’ game. This article from local sources explains what the Bearcats have been doing all week since their 13 point loss at Xavier last weekend: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/university-of-cincinnati/2017/12/08/cincinnati-bearcats-must-fix-defense-against-no-5-florida-gators/934343001/ Bearcats senior forward Gary Clark: “We've got to get stops. We were scoring late (against XU) but we couldn't get a stop to keep them from going on their runs. This week we've been really trying to preach defense, really just getting back to getting a stop." UC junior wing Jacob Evans III: "We know they're a good team that shoots the ball extremely well. We know we have to step it up on defense, try not to let them run the things they want to run, and finish a defensive stop with a rebound." Head coach Mick Cronin: "Our identity has got to be about playing extremely hard and being committed to getting defensive stops, and then your offense comes from your defense. Getting out-rebounded is a product of a terrible defense…..When you play a really good team you might not be able to take away everything, but you've got to take away something. You can't give up nine lay-ups and seven threes in a half, which is what we accomplished in our last game. It wasn't mutually exclusive to one player and it wasn't exclusive to halfcourt. We also gave them up in transition." I’m a Bearcats believer, and I love the concept of getting Cinci in a near pick em price range after a full week off following a dismal defensive showing. This pointspread is certainly reasonable….. Take Cinci. |
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12-09-17 | UAB +9.5 v. Auburn | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Take UAB (#755) This is a ‘one way rivalry’ game, with the Blazers ALWAYS getting up to face their in-state major conference foe. Auburn? Bruce Pearl’s squad isn’t necessarily quite as focused on their C-USA foe. Evidence? The last two meetings have been decided by a grand total of five points; 74-70 last year and 75-74 the year prior. Auburn is an overvalued commodity right now. Here’s why; a ‘cut and paste’ from a local source: Auburn has played some well known mid-major schools during the early part of this season. Norfolk State, Temple, Hofstra, Winthrop, Dayton and George Mason have all made the NCAA Tournament in recent years. Indiana State opened its season with a rout of Indiana at Assembly Hall. But Norfolk State and Winthrop both played without their leading scorers. Dayton played without its top three scorers from last year, as well as with a first-year head coach. The best team Auburn has faced this season in terms of where it ranks in Ken Pomeroy’s basketball ratings, Temple, won that game by 14 points at the Charleston Classic. Auburn also has a key injury to their star sophomore guard Mustapha Heron – the team’s leading scorer -- is hurt, unlikely to have an impact today if he suits up at all. And the Blazers are no joke, coming off an impressive road win at Troy on the heels of a dominating showing against Memphis. Robert Ehsan’s squad has the depth to hang for the full 40 minutes, with at least some shot at the outright upset. Take UAB. |
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12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2.5 v. Ball State | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Valparaiso (#741) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). Read this article for full details: http://www.thestarpress.com/story/sports/college/ball-state/2017/12/08/can-ball-state-avoid-notre-dame-hangover-toughest-remaining-game-up-next/935113001/ Ball State is coming off a monumental upset over Notre Dame, the program’s first win over a ranked for since 2001. Their collective heads have been in the clouds all week; attracting the type of attention that Cardinals basketball doesn’t usually generate. Head coach James Whitford talked about all the calls and texts that he and his team were getting. Then he said this: “I told the team that we played the most difficult game of our schedule obviously Tuesday and then Saturday is probably the most difficult game we have remaining for the whole year. Valparaiso is a very, very good team. They didn't play well against Purdue, and I told my team that that loss no more defines them than our loss to Oklahoma or our loss to Oregon defines us.” Whitford is right about one thing – Valpo is no joke! He’s right about another thing too – the ugly loss at Purdue earlier in the week doesn’t define them, a team that was undefeated heading into that game against the Boilermakers and primed for a strong bounceback today. Take Valpo. |
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12-08-17 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 197.5 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Boston – San Antonio OVER (#515-516) There’s a fair bit of talk in the betting world about how good these two defenses are; hence the relatively low total tonight. But I haven’t seen or heard much about how well these two teams are playing offensively right now; two ‘bet-on’ squads on the offense end of the court. The Spurs got eight different players into double digits in their 117-105 win over the Heat on Wednesday, and dished 30 assists as a team. Manu Ginobili: “The ball really moved”. Gregg Popovich: “Getting 30 assists is always wonderful….it is great to see.” Boston had 25 assists on 36 made baskets against the Mavs in their last outing, also showing tremendous ball movement and getting a steady diet of good looks at the basket. Al Hoford: “This is good. We want to keep building on it." It’s surely worth noting that the shorthanded Celtics have scored 108+ six times in their last seven ballgames; part of an 8-2 run to the OVER in their last ten contests. When we think of Brad Stevens facing off against Gregg Popovich, we don’t tend to think of ‘shootouts’, yet that’s exactly what this series has produced. Each of the last four meetings between these two squads has flown Over the total. None of those games were lined higher than 199.5, yet the losing team broke 100 in three of those four meetings. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the Over. |
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12-07-17 | Rockets v. Jazz +6.5 | 112-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#708) When Utah faced Houston just over a month ago, it wasn’t pretty for the Jazz. The Rockets scored 39 points in the first quarter and followed that up with a 48 point third quarter. They finished the game hitting 59% from two point range and 59% from three point range, making a whopping 23 three pointers. Houston is certainly capable of performances like that; as dangerous an offensive team as there is in the NBA. But I’m not expecting Utah to get rolled quite the same way in the rematch. The Rockets haven’t faced a strong defensive team in weeks – they’ve played the Lakers, Pacers, Nets, Knicks and Nuggets in their last five games, nary a solid defensive ballclub in the bunch. The Rockets have had a very easy time of it, winning all five of those games by 14 points or more while hanging 117+ in every contest. Whatever ‘value’ there was with Houston upon Chris Paul’s return to the lineup has surely dissipated. Utah is a Top 5 defensive team, despite the fact that their elite low post defender, Rudy Gobert, missed eleven games due to injury. In Gobert’s first game back, right here in Salt Lake City, the Jazz defense was off-the-charts good, holding the Wizards to 69 points on 29% shooting. Utah couldn’t match that same intensity on the second night of back-2-backs at OKC, but they still covered the pointspread nearly wire-2-wire in defeat. That ATS win isn’t new or different for the Jazz – they’ve been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. In fact, if you take away their 1-4 SU and ATS stretch right after Gobert got hurt, we’re talking about a team that has cashed at a 70% clip in their other games, just behind the #1 pointspread team in the NBA so far, the Boston Celtics. For the season, they are 11-4 ATS on this floor, including five straight wins and covers. The Rockets hung 137 on the Jazz in the first meeting (at Houston), but only one other team all year has hung more than 109 on the Jazz. Expect a tight, competitive contest and a very different Houston scoring output compared to that first meeting. Take the Jazz. |
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12-07-17 | Drexel +10.5 v. La Salle | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Drexel (#713) When the Dragons played the Explorers in non-conference play last year, the Dragons were an ugly mess of a basketball team. LaSalle jumped out to a 34-16 lead and never looked back, winning by 11. The Explorers hit 50% of their two point shots and 61% of their three point tries; the Dragons couldn’t match their firepower on their way to a dismal 9-23 season. That was then, this is now. Since opening the season 2-0 SU and ATS, LaSalle has a grand total of one pointspread cover in their last seven ballgames. They’ve been favored four times during that span, losing twice in outright fashion while winning the other two games by four and eight points – both times as double digit favorites. John Giannini’s team hasn’t shot the ball well (41% for the season), defended well or rebounded well. BJ Johnson and Pookie Powell are a two man show for the Explorers; a team with precious little quality depth. While LaSalle hasn’t won a game by enough of a margin to cover this pointspread since opening night, Drexel has shown legit signs that they’re getting better in Zach Spiker’s second year on the job. This team has much more depth than last year and they’ve bought into Spiker’s defensive mentality. The result? A handful of upsets as they’ve won four of their last seven overall (one of the losses coming by two in OT), including SU wins over Houston (at +13.5) and Rider (+5, won by 12). Expect a battle between these two Philadelphia schools tonight, not a blowout! Take Drexel. |
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12-06-17 | Illinois State v. BYU OVER 145 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Take BYU – Illinois State OVER (#547-548) Illinois State wants to get out and run, pushing the tempo at every opportunity. BYU used to play the same style, but head coach Dave Rose has been doing his best to slow the Cougars pace this season. That being said, the last time BYU faced an uptempo foe on this court, they played a 95-88 shootout against Niagara, a game that flew Over the total by more than 35 points. No surprise here if we see a similar flow tonight. Coach Rose called this matchup “worrisome” for the Cougars because of the Redbirds’ proficiency in transition and also because it falls in the middle of three big in-state matchups – off Utah State, with Weber State and Utah on deck. Illinois State head coach Dan Muller wants to play his style tonight, coming off a game against Tulsa where the Redbirds were able to force their opponent into playing at their preferred uptempo pace: "It's not only a good, quality opponent, but the atmosphere is going to be terrific. That is something that's going to be really good for this team…. We got them (Tulsa) sped up a little bit. The press is going to be good for us as we get healthier and I can rest guys some more. I hope we can press more." Take the OVER. |
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12-06-17 | Pistons +4 v. Bucks | 100-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#515) The betting markets have been excited about the Milwaukee Bucks from Day 1 this season – when the Greek Freak went into Boston and beat the Celtics. The markets got even more excited about the Bucks when they acquired a legit point guard in Eric Bledsoe from Phoenix. But the market enthusiasm for Milwaukee has superseded their actual results, as clearly evidenced by their consistent struggles in this ‘home favorite’ role. The Bucks have covered a grand total of three pointspreads in ten tries at the Bradley Center this season, and they’re just 2-5 ATS as short favorites of less than five points. In their last try in as home chalk, Milwaukee hit 49% from the floor and 35-43 from the free throw line, yet they couldn’t pull away from lowly Sacramento. The problems have been fairly consistent – Milwaukee doesn’t defend well and they don’t rebound well, two clear issues when laying points against a hungry, focused Pistons team tonight. The Pistons have been moneymakers on the highway all season, 9-4 ATS in 13 previous road tilts. As underdogs of +3 or higher, the Pistons have been nothing short of outstanding: 8-1 ATS, including a cover right here in Milwaukee last month. But Detroit is coming off three straight losses to open this road trip. They’ve got Golden State and Boston coming to the Motor City on deck. Expect a real sense of urgency from the road dog tonight in a game I expect them to win. Take the Pistons. |
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12-06-17 | Wisconsin v. Temple -4 | 55-59 | Push | 0 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Temple (#526) I’m always interested in what a team is saying coming off a handful of bad performances. Is this team in the midst of a ‘crash and burn’ or are they primed to step up next time out? After all, Temple has suffered two bad losses in their last three games, losing SU as 11 point chalk on the road at George Washington and as 3.5 point favorites on the road at LaSalle. Sophomore wing Quinton Rose, the Owls leading scorer: “We were prepared [for La Salle and George Washington] and kind of sensed that we were better than them and didn’t have to play as hard as we should, but we learned our lesson from that.” Second leading scorer Shizz Alston had a similar take: “We looked at those guys and didn’t respect them as much as, say, Cincinnati or UConn, so we have to respect every team the same way.” In other words, Temple’s early season results aren’t indicative of who they actually are, offering us value to support the Owls in games like this one. And make no mistake about it – this is a HUGE game for Temple, their first home game of the season against an opponent that has been a fixture on the postseason stage in every recent season. Senior big man Obi Enechionyia “It’s been tough not being able to play on our home court for so long. I am excited to play in front of the fans.” Wisconsin isn’t just a young team this year – they’re really, really young, a complete rebuild for head coach Greg Gard. In their one point road win at Penn State on Monday (note the short turnaround time), four of the eight players who saw court time were true freshmen, and two others were sophomores. Wisconsin is not the most confident team these days – they had dropped four out of five prior to the win over the Nittany Lions – and they did their best to blow a 17 point second half lead in that contest, just one game after getting run off the court at home against Ohio State. Chalk worth laying! Take Temple. |
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12-05-17 | Texas A&M v. Arizona +2 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#728) My clients and I bet on Arizona last Saturday Night as short road favorites at UNLV. Arizona won the game, but did not cover the pointspread, a disappointing result. That being said, the fact that they won a tight, contested road game by making big plays on both ends of the court during crunch time of regulation and overtime is the spark this team needed! Let me start with an excerpt from Saturday’s write-up: “Thanksgiving Weekend tournaments are not the final arbiter to determine which teams are actually elite. ‘Zona had a miserable run last weekend in the Battle for Atlantis losing outright as favorites to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They lost ATS by 18.5, 13 and 26 points in those three games. Whatever betting bandwagon the Wildcats had – remember, they went into last weekend as the #2 team in the country – has now dissipated into dust. And that’s why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Wildcats.” Make no mistake about it – Arizona had a rough tourney, but they are a legit Top 5 caliber team with a defense first mindset, loaded with interior size, speedy playmakers and NBA caliber perimeter shooters. They hit 38% from three point range and 73% from the free throw line, rock solid shooting numbers. Arizona has senior Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Junior Allonzo Trier handling the basketball, a truly elite duo. And Sean Miller has a pair of seven footers starting in his frontcourt – the Wildcats are outrebounding their foes by more than seven boards per game Texas A&M has a handful of impressive looking victories on their resume, including a 23 point blowout over West Virginia and a 16 point win at USC. Not to take anything away from those wins, but USC was awful (28% shooting) and West Virginia simply struggled on a neutral floor on opening night. Not to take anything away from the Aggies hot start, but this pointspread is out of whack with the relative talent levels for these two squads for a game being played in Phoenix. The Wildcats won a tight one on Saturday and I expect them to win another tight one here. Take Arizona. |
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12-05-17 | Virginia v. West Virginia -4 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia (#718) This will be Virginia’s toughest test of the season – they’ve been -6 or higher in every previous game. I’m not expecting them to pass it! In 2015, West Virginia faced Virginia’s ‘pack line’ defense for the first time and they were hopelessly lost, losing 70-54. Last year, Bob Huggins spent extra time working on how to solve Tony Bennett’s squad and it paid off with a 66-57 road victory. The core of that squad is back, most notably all-everything senior point guard Jevon Carter; one of four double digit scorers for the Mountaineers. Bob Huggins knows that his team needs to push the pace against the single slowest team in the country: “Three yards and a cloud of dust is what they want. It’s like Woody (Hayes, former Ohio State football coach) is coaching over there….We were able to speed them up some last year…..What pack line does is it makes you make jump shots. There’s five guys inside the 3. It’s what Jamie (Dixon, former Pitt and now TCU coach) has done for years…. If you make jump shots, you generally are successful.” West Virginia can hit jump shots. Plus, they force more than 21 turnovers per game and they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. That’s how the Mountaineers have taken 556 shots compared to 431 shots from their opponents; a HUGE edge in a game like this with fewer possessions expected. Virginia isn’t loaded with interior size and their ball handling is questionable without a true point guard on the roster. The Mountaineers handled this squad last year in Charlottesville, and I expect them to handle them in Morgantown in the rematch. Take West Virginia. |
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12-05-17 | Winthrop +12.5 v. Georgia | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Winthrop (#765) This is a truly brutal spot for the Georgia Bulldogs as big home chalk against feisty Winthrop. Georgia is coming off a HUGE series of wins, first beating St Mary’s in the Wooden Legacy Classic and following that up with an impressive outright upset at Marquette on Saturday. ‘Final exams season’ begins immediately following tonight’s game. This is no ‘step-up spot for the home team, and we’ve seen what happens when Georgia isn’t motivated in a lethargic nine point win over South Carolina Upstate and an equally lethargic win over Texas A&M – Corpus Christi. Winthrop won 26 games last year and expects to contend for the Big South title again this year; a talented, veteran mid-major squad with an excellent track record in ‘step-up’ spots. But they got run out of the gym in their previous ‘step-up’ game at Auburn, allowing 119 points on 62% shooting. I’ll take the ‘Under 62% shooting’ for Georgia tonight in a game played at Winthrop’s pace – fast – as opposed to the pace the Bulldogs have been playing in their last few games. And this double digit pointspread makes the expected ‘foul and three pointer’ sequence at the end of the game much less stressful…. Take Winthrop. |
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12-04-17 | Nets v. Hawks -1 | 110-90 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#510) The betting markets almost always knee-jerk in these home & home sets, with $$ pouring in on the team that lost the first meeting in the short turnaround rematch. That’s certainly the case with the early $$ pouring in on the Nets, driving this line down to pick em at several influential sportsbooks as I do this write-up. I understand the concept from the betting markets here – two bad teams equates to virtually no edge for the home team in the rematch, especially with Atlanta sitting at 2-8 SU at home this year. But there was nothing fraudulent about the Hawks double digit win over the Nets on Saturday; a wire-2-wire victory. The Nets hit 17 three pointers in that game, with six different players hitting at least two shots from downtown. They were only -1 on the glass and missed only four free throws. And they still lost at home by margin. So here’s the rematch. The Nets aren’t poised to take advantage of Atlanta’s front court injuries – they’ve been outrebounded by nearly two boards per game, ranked #21 in the NBA. Hawks backup center Miles Plumlee is just fine when he’s only asked to play defense and rebound, and Ersan Ilysova is a tough rebounder in the low post. And the Nets still have the same defensive problems they had over the weekend – their inability to stay in front of Atlanta point guard Dennis Schroeder and their inability to get stops with their second unit on the floor. It’s surely worth noting that the Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six tries against foes with a losing record. After facing the likes of San Antonio, Cleveland, Toronto and Boston in the last two weeks, another ‘step down in class’ game for the home team is a likely victory. Take the Hawks. |
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12-04-17 | Michigan +2 v. Ohio State | 62-71 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#523) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Michigan on Saturday, as the Wolverines jumped out to an 18-4 lead over Indiana and never looked back, cruising to a double digit victory. And there’s ample reason to believe that Michigan will be the better team on the floor again tonight as they travel to Columbus to take on Ohio State. The Buckeyes haven’t come down yet from one of the more remarkable performances of the college basketball season thusfar, winning by 25 at Wisconsin on Saturday as ten point underdogs. That win was mostly about hot shooting – the Buckeyes shot 78% in the first half and led by 23 at the break, finishing the game with 66% shooting and a +14 rebounding edge. Note the quote from Badgers big man Ethan Happ, following the game: “The easiest thing to say is we didn't come with enough energy. We just need to be more prepared to play." I’m not expecting to see similar quotes from the Wolverines as they face their rival. This will be Ohio State’s sixth game in 12 days, all against quality competition. Chris Holtmann’s squad is likely to be anything BUT fresh here. We’ve already seen Ohio State come up on the wrong end of big in-game turnarounds – Ohio State was outscored 49-28 after halftime against Clemson last week, right here at Value City Arena. And they led Butler 56-41 with less than four minutes to play before a complete meltdown cost them the game in overtime. Coming off a near perfect game, with just a 48 hour turnaround off what has been a VERY intense stretch, I’m not expecting Ohio State to come out clicking on all cylinders here. Even if they do, this team is prone to in-game collapses, even on this floor. And the Wolverines are no joke; a veteran squad coming off a 26 win campaign with the interior size to bang and the perimeter shooting to win. Take Michigan. |
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12-03-17 | Seton Hall +3.5 v. Louisville | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#721) There are four key factors in play for me to support Seton Hall as they travel to Louisville; a game I expect the Pirates to win in outright fashion (sorry, abbreviated write-up on a busy NFL Sunday morning). First, the Pirates have the low post size to bang with the Louisville bigs. More than 40% of the Pirates shots are layups, dunks and other easy looks near the basket, with Angel Delgad, Ismael Sanago and feisty wing Desi Rodriguez all pounding the offensive glass. Second, the Pirates ball pressure – forcing turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents possessions -- is a problem for a Louisville team that has struggled with their ball handling at key junctures in early season play. Third, Louisville isn’t hitting perimeter shots, unable to put teams away. For the season, no one on David Padgett’s squad has hit more than seven three pointers. That’s bad news against a Seton Hall squad that has been draining their open perimeter looks, coming off a 50% shooting effort against what had been the nation’s best defensive team. Lastly, I want Seton Hall in their ‘step-up’ games on the highway. Throughout the Kevin Willard era, this team has been extraordinarily tough in hostile environments. Last year, the core of this team went 8-2 ATS as dogs away from home, and I’m expecting more of the same on Sunday. Take Seton Hall |
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12-02-17 | Arizona -4.5 v. UNLV | 91-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#605) Thanksgiving Weekend tournaments are not the final arbiter to determine which teams are actually elite. ‘Zona had a miserable run last weekend in the Battle for Atlantis losing outright as favorites to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They lost ATS by 18.5, 13 and 26 points in those three games. Whatever betting bandwagon the Wildcats had – remember, they went into last weekend as the #2 team in the country – has now dissipated into dust. That’s why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Wildcats as they travel to Las Vegas to take on the Runnin’ Rebels tonight. First, make no mistake about it – Arizona had a rough tourney, but they are a legit Top 5 caliber team with a defense first mindset, loaded with interior size, speedy playmakers and NBA caliber perimeter shooters. Secondly, UNLV is still an overrated commodity, even after taking their first loss of the season at Northern Iowa on Wednesday. The Rebels have been feasting on the weak. Their signature win in their 6-1 start came against a Utah team expected to finish near the bottom of the PAC-12 standings. All five of their other victories came in games where UNLV was favored by -13 or higher. Arizona is, by FAR, the best team UNLV has faced this season. It’s not the same case looking the other way….. The Rebels are +13 PER GAME on the boards for the season. That interior dominance isn’t going to happen against Sean Miller’s squad, who starts a pair of seven footers. Opponents have hit only 23% of their three point attempts vs. UNLV; a stat that’s primed for correction tonight against an Arizona team that’s hitting better than 38% from beyond the arc this season. UNLV’s defense had hel foes to an 0.71 turnover to assist ratio. Arizona has senior Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Junior Allonzo Trier handling the basketball, a truly elite duo. The Rebels might hang around for a while with the friendly crowd cheering, but we can expect Arizona to pull away at some point. And the Wildcats solid free throw shooting – 73% for the season – gives me confidence that they can hit the clutch foul shots down the stretch if the game is still tight. Take Arizona. |
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12-02-17 | Georgia +6 v. Marquette | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#525) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner taking Georgia plus the points in the Wooden Legacy Tourney last weekend. And Mark Fox’s Bulldogs are primed to make us some more money today in their first game since that OT win over previously undefeated St Mary’s. The Bulldogs are rested and ready as they travel to Marquette; a declining program that isn’t even in the top half of the Big East any more. Georgia was a feisty road underdog last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M. My numbers show the Bulldogs on an 11-3-1 ATS run when catching points, and even that’s somewhat misleading. Two of the three ATS losses should have asterisks attached, due to some unusual late game shenanigans. Unusual late game shenanigans are possible here – Marquette is an elite free throw shooting team -- but I certainly wouldn’t call them likely. And Marquette has to be in the lead late to get those FT attempts. That’s likely to be a problem, because Steve Wojociechowski’s squad isn’t playing much defense. Based on KenPom’s advanced metric numbers, Georgia ranks #44 in the country in defensive efficiency. Marquette is at #151. That’s a pretty big defensive edge for the underdog, especially when we consider that the Golden Eagles don’t have the interior size to bang with Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide in the paint. Expect Georgia’s defense and rebounding to be difference makers here, cashing another winning bet in the underdog role. Take Georgia. |
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12-02-17 | Indiana v. Michigan -7.5 | 55-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#522). Sorry, no detailed write-up for this early start game. Michigan is in a Grade 'A' spot back home off a dismal showing at North Carolina, and Indiana is 'fade' material in this pointspread range when stepping up in class on the highway. Take the Wolverines! |
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12-01-17 | Illinois +5.5 v. Northwestern | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#723) Northwestern isn’t playing well enough to lay this type of a price to an opponent that has OWNED them in recent seasons. And don’t underestimate how much the Wildcats temporary digs, miles from campus, affects the strength (or lack thereof) of their home court advantage. Put those two factors together and the Illini are a clear choice for this bettor in the Big 10 opener on Friday Night. The betting markets have been too high on Chris Collins team from Day 1 this season. The influential Blue Ribbon guide had the Wildcats ranked in their preseason Top 25; just about every preseason guide had the Wildcats building off their NCAA Tourney appearance last March. But the early results have proven otherwise. Northwestern has already lost SU twice as a favorite as part of their 1-4 ATS run to open the season, the lone cover coming by just a half a point. Their offensive numbers are weak, their defensive numbers are weak, and they’ve been outrebounded on a consistent basis. To make matters worse for the Wildcats, Welsh-Ryan Arena is getting renovated this year, forcing the Wildcats to play at the AllState Arena in Rosemont, a full half hour drive away from campus (with no traffic). They have yet to cover a pointspread at the new venue. Northwestern went to the Big Dance last year while Illinois went to the NIT despite the fact that the Illini won both meetings, SU and ATS. This isn’t new or different – the Illini have covered every meeting between these two in-state rivals dating back to 2015. You’d have to go back to 2013 before you find a NW win in this series by enough of a margin to cover tonight’s pointspread. Brad Underwood plus the points is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Illini. |
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11-30-17 | Bulls v. Nuggets -11 | 110-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#506) My handicap on Chicago is very simple right now. Motivated teams are going to beat the Bulls by margin. Chicago is going to win a handful of games on hot shooting nights. They’ll win another handful of games when their opponents look past them. But on most nights, the Bulls are going to lose by however much their opponent wants to beat them by; the single worst team in the NBA this season, a true bottom feeder. In their last six road games, the Bulls have lost by 30+ on three separate occasions while going 0-6 ATS. This is not a team capable of ‘digging down deep’ when facing adversity on the highway right now, which is particularly bad news for tonight’s game against the Nuggets. Denver is a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency but that certainly wasn’t the case on Tuesday, when the Nuggets turned a 49-48 halftime lead into a 106-77 defeat; by far their worst half of basketball all season. Even worse, it came in front of a rare ESPN national audience for a team that doesn’t get a ton of TV time. Head coach Mike Malone: “We were completely outplayed. Just an awful, embarrassing night for the Denver Nuggets." Denver is 7-1 SU in their last eight home games; a completely different team when playing at the Pepsi Center. The only loss during that span came against Golden State – no shame there – and four of the wins came by a dozen points or more – this team is more than capable of closing out a blowout victory with reasonable fourth quarter intensity. Chalk worth laying……Take the Nuggets. |
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11-29-17 | Grizzlies +8 v. Spurs | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#715) No need for a long write-up for this game, because the concept is simple. Memphis just fired wildly unpopular head coach David Fizdale, a coach with a track record of consistently pissing off just about every veteran on the team. The last straw came over the weekend against the Nets, when franchise centerpiece Marc Gasol was benched for the entire fourth quarter of a ten point home loss, their eighth consecutive defeat. Now JB Bickerstaff takes over, and the Spurs know exactly what’s coming. San Antonio wing Danny Green: “We know every time a team comes with a new coach (after a) firing, they always go on a winning streak.” We can expect the Grizzlies to play like their hair is on fire tonight; a clear step-up spot for a team that has been thoroughly devalued in the betting markets during this eight game skid (both SU and ATS). The Spurs are transitioning Tony Parker and Rudy Gay back into the rotation after both missed time. They have shown precious little urgency in early season play, as clearly evidenced by their margins of victory at home. The Spurs 9-2 record on this floor includes only four wins by more than eight points – the Suns, Clippers, Bulls and Hawks, arguably the four worst teams in the league over the past month. Be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline in a game where Memphis is primed to show up bigtime! Take the Grizzlies. |
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11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa +1 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 101 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa (#746) The Runnin’ Rebels have enjoyed a tremendous start to their season, going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. The only pointspread they didn’t cover came as 23 point favorites against Southern Utah, a game they won by 19. Most impressively, the Rebels destroyed Utah on a ‘neutral’ court here in Vegas as three point underdogs, winning by 27 while holding Utah to 2-20 shooting from three point range. No surprise, then, that the betting markets are sky high on the Rebels right now – heck, this team got votes for the AP Top 25 this week! And that’s why we’ve got tremendous value to support Northern Iowa tonight. The Panthers style is the Rebels kryptonite. UNLV wants to – needs to – push the pace. They’ve scored at least 85 points in every game, and, with the exception of Utah, they’ve all come against lesser competition, with UNLV laying at least -13.5 in their other five previous games. Northern Iowa isn’t going to run with anybody. The Panthers, unlike the Rebels, are truly battle tested after facing SMU, NC State and Villanova last week at the Battle for Atlantis. It’s surely worth noting that Ben Jacobson’s Panthers forced all three of those quality, major conference foes to play at their preferred slowdown pace. It’s also worth noting that Northern Iowa was good enough to win two of those games in SU fashion as underdogs while finishing +12 on the boards – this team has the interior size to bang with the big boys. And that’s so key! UNLV is loaded with bigs. Brandon McCoy and Shakur Juiston are both averaging 13 rebounds per game and the Rebels have a +15 rebounding margin per game. Don’t expect a margin like that against Northern Iowa, who is +8 (per game) on the boards themselves; a team that rebounds well from every position on the court. UNI got blown out at North Carolina in their season opener, allowing 86 points on 50% shooting. Since that time, they’ve held every foe – including Villanova – to 64 or less, playing one grinder after the next. No team has shot better than 43% against them in any of their last six games, a VERY sticky defensive ballclub. Northern Iowa has been home since last Saturday, confident and focused off the loss to the Wildcats. UNLV is in lookahead mode – they’ve got a bigtime showdown against Arizona at home on Friday Night. Facing a Rebels team not built for this style, leaving the friendly confines of Las Vegas for the first time all year, we can bet the Panthers with confidence. Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa. |
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11-28-17 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 208 | 77-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Denver OVER (#507-508) When Rudy Gobert got hurt, the Utah Jazz ranked #2 in the NBA in points per possession allowed on defense, an elite defensive ballclub. In eight games without their low post shotblocker, the Jazz rank #19 in points per possession allowed on defense and #24 in percentage of available rebounds that they’ve nabbed, leading to easy putbacks off the offensive glass. Six of Utah’s eight opponents since the Gobert injury have scored 106+ against them and the only two that didn’t – Orlando and Chicago – rank among the weakest offensive teams in basketball. Facing a Nuggets team that wants to push the pace at every reasonable opportunity, look for the Jazz defense to get exposed once again this evening. But Utah’s offense has improved by leaps and bounds of late, hanging 110+ three times in their last four ballgames. Head coach Quin Snyder, after the Jazz hung 121 on the Bucks over the weekend: “I thought we were unbelievably unselfish. Offensively we were really connected and trying to help each other.” It’s surely worth noting that Utah has set season highs for assists in a game twice in their last four contests. And it’s also worth noting that the Nuggets defense on the road has been hideous (125+ allowed twice on their recent three game trip), a big part of the reason they’ve been moneyburners (3-6 ATS) on the highway all year. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-28-17 | Baylor v. Xavier -4.5 | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Xavier (#512) Gotta like this spot here for the short home favorite! Xavier was embarrassed at Baylor last year when a three point halftime lead turned into a 15 point defeat. That came despite a +12 edge on the boards for the Musketeers in large part because Bears guard Manu Lecomte went nuts, nailing six three pointers, and because Xavier didn’t handle the basketball well, committing 17 turnovers. That was then, this is now. We’ve got a particularly motivated Xavier squad tonight, coming off their first loss of the season on Friday, blitzkrieged by Arizona State in a 102-86 defeat, by far their worst defensive showing of the season. Baylor was expected to be and is striving to a Top 20 team defensively, yet after the Arizona State debacle, they rank #55 in that category entering play today. Musketeers head coach Chris Mack is ‘bet-on’ all the way following an ugly loss, and Baylor can’t be trusted in their first true road game of the season. Mack made it clear that he expects Xavier’s defensive breakdowns from their last game to be fixed. Read between the lines of this quote and you can understand why my $$ is on the short home favorite tonight: Mack: “We have to be better defensively and there's no getting around that. We recognize how strong of a program Baylor is and what they did to us last year and the problems they present at both ends of the floor….. We wouldn't have scheduled the game if we didn't think that we could compete and compete to win. Baylor's had our number." The Musketeers are undervalued here and they’re primed to make a statement tonight! Take Xavier |
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11-27-17 | Lakers +4.5 v. Clippers | 115-120 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Take the LA Lakers (#715) This situation sets up very well for the LA Lakers as ‘road’ underdogs at the Staples Center tonight. LA will get Larry Nance back in the lineup tonight, an impact player on the defensive end of the court. They had a ‘physical and chippy’ practice yesterday, coming off a bad loss at Sacramento last Wednesday, with a rare opportunity to get extra practice time in during their extended break over the weekend. And they’re facing ‘big brother’ in a season where the Clippers might not be the big brother any more, looking to make a statement against a team that has dominated them, including a 16 point win in the first meeting of the season. Much has changed for the Clippers since that first meeting. LA opened the season 4-0 SU and ATS. They are 3-11 SU and ATS since. The three wins have come against Dallas, Atlanta and Sacramento, arguably the three worst teams in the NBA this side of Chicago this season. Two of those wins just came over the weekend, as the Clips closed out their grueling five game East Coast swing with back-2-back wins over bottom feeders. They didn’t even cover as -4 point road favorites at Sacramento on Saturday, lucky to escape with a two point victory. The Clippers are still dealing with significant injuries, with their top two projected point guards – expected to replace Chris Paul, mind you – both languishing on the sidelines in street clothes. Patrick Beverley is now out for the season; Milos Teodosic won’t suit up again until January. That duo gave Lonzo Ball and the Lakers backcourt all kinds of trouble when they met in October, but I’m expecting a very different story in the rematch. The Clippers have lost at home to the Pistons, Warriors, Grizzlies, Heat and 76ers in their last six tries here at the Staples Center, not exactly enjoying a dominant home court these days. They are, quite simply, not trustworthy as chalk tonight against an opponent with something to prove…..and the talent level to prove it! Take the Lakers. |
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11-27-17 | Cavs v. 76ers -2 | 113-91 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#704) When it comes to regular season games in November, when one team is primed to ‘bring it’ and the other team is not, there’s not a ton of additional handicapping required. And this is one game where the 76ers are primed to bring their ‘A’ game, looking to make a statement on their home floor. Sixers head coach Brett Brown, talking about the importance of tonight’s game for his emerging young team: “Cleveland is going to come in, and it's going to be amazing for the building. This building is wild. How about our fans? Are you kidding me? I can't even talk to my coaching staff sometimes and they're a foot from me. It's fantastic. What a great thing for our city…We're playing good basketball. We look forward to seeing them.” It’s surely worth noting that Philly sat point guard Ben Simmons on Saturday so he would be ready to go tonight. While this game means EVERYTHING to Philly, it’s just another regular season road game for the Cavs. Cleveland’s sense of urgency following their rough start has passed – they’ve won seven straight games. It’s worth noting that none of those seven victories came against a team as good as the one they’ll face tonight. AND it’s worth noting that despite seven straight wins off a rough start, the markets aren’t sleeping on the Cavs – they went just 3-4 ATS while notching those victories, a team still being priced a notch or two too high compared to their level of early season play. Take the 76ers. |
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11-26-17 | St. Mary's v. Georgia +7 | 81-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#564) St Mary’s has been an overvalued commodity from Day 1 this season. I understand the Gaels have Top 25 talent, and their ranking is no accident. But the markets understand that too, hence St Mary’s ATS struggles to open the campaign. The Gaels have shot 52% from the floor, 44% from three point range and 81% from the free throw line this season—they’re not going to shoot any better than that. Yet despite those elite numbers, St Mary’s has only covered one pointspread in four tries, and they’re coming off an outright loss as 18 point chalk in the semi-finals. This is a ‘disappointment’ game for a Gaels squad hoping for big, signature wins in this tourney, because they won’t get many of those one WCC Conference play begins. Georgia dealt with a bout of food poisoning on Friday, then proceeded to blow a double digit lead in a loss to San Diego State; a very misleading final score given the flow of that game and the circumstances surrounding it. Preseason SEC Player of the Year Yante Maten hit just 4-15 shots and lost his cool in a foul fest. The Aztecs closed out the game on a 12-4 run, turning a late Georgia lead into a seven point loss. Facing an overvalued commodity that has struggled defensively all year, look for Maten and the Bulldogs to bounce back strong and hang tough in the underdog role today; a game they’re quite capable of winning in outright fashion. Take Georgia. |
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11-25-17 | Bucks -1.5 v. Jazz | 108-121 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#717) Utah has won six straight meetings with Milwaukee, a streak that dates back to the start of the 2014-15 campaign. That streak ends tonight. At 8-11, the Jazz have played mediocre basketball to the casual observer. It’s far worse than ‘mediocre’ to this observer. Make no mistake about it – this Jazz team is WAY down from what we saw last year. Utah got nothing from losing their best offensive player from last year in free agency, Gordon Hayward. They lost their best defensive player to injury, low post stud Rudy Gobert, out till mid-December. Starting point guard Ricky Rubio is banged up, in and out of the lineup in recent weeks. Thabo Sefolosha is limited with a bum knee. Veteran sharpshooter Joe Johnson is sitting with a wrist injury. Right now, Quin Snyder’s rotation isn’t pretty – lots of young guys getting court time they probably don’t deserve, with a very ‘hit or miss’ bench when the starters are sitting. The Jazz beat Denver on the first night of the season. Since that victory, they’ve notched a grand total of one win against an opponent with a winning record, and even that game went to OT vs. the ‘not elite’ Blazers. The Jazz are coming off a very satisfying 30 point blowout win over the hapless Bulls. The last time Utah won back-2-back games was back in October. Utah’s one strong homecourt? They’ve lost SU and ATS in Salt Lake City to Toronto, Philly, Miami and Minnesota already this month. This is not a team to trust stepping up in class off a win against quality competition. The Bucks are expected to get emerging superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo back in the lineup today after he sat at Phoenix on Wednesday. Point guard Eric Bledsoe is developing rhythm with his new teammates by the day, coming off a Bucks high 30 point effort. Malcolm Brogdon, who’s playing time was the most affected by the Bledsoe trade, is coming off his best game since the deal, finally finding a rhythm off the bench. There’s no comparison between these two teams right now, making the Bucks are clear choice for this bettor in a game where the SU win should equate to the ATS victory. Take the Bucks. |
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11-25-17 | Blazers v. Wizards UNDER 203.5 | 108-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Portland – Washington UNDER (#705-706) If you’re a regular client of mine, you already know the drill. We’ve been riding the Wizards Under of late, an emerging trend that has been playing great dividends in recent weeks. Washington had cashed nine consecutive Unders (very quietly, waaaaaaay underneath the radar) prior to their last game against Charlotte. The defensive effort wasn’t there against the Hornets, resulting in a 129-124 overtime defeat that flew over the total in regulation. Now the Wizards have lost three of their last four. Sparkplug point guard John Wall has been shut down for a week or two, but Wall left his teammates with this quote, following the Wizards loss to Charlotte: “It’s terrible. The fault was defensively, giving up offensive rebounds and those 50-50 balls…..That’s where they won the game.” It’s surely worth noting that prior to allowing the 129 vs. Charlotte, Washington had allowed 100 points or less in each of their previous seven contests. Wall’s absence (with Tim Frazier taking over as the starting point guard), leaves Washington much weaker (and much slower) on offense. This has all the makings of a ‘step-up’ defensive spot. And their opponent, Portland, currently ranks #3 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, despite a wild 127-125 shootout in Brooklyn yesterday. Damian Lillard, following that victory: “I think we played a really good offensive game….. We just gotta figure out how to have those kind of offensive games and not lose the defense.” Prior to yesterday’s game, the Blazers, like the Wizards, had been bringing it every night on the defensive end, holding each of their previous nine foes to 101 points or less. With both teams likely to step up defensively here, let’s ride this Wizards Run of Unders one more time. Take the UNDER. |
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11-25-17 | Texas-Arlington -8 v. Niagara | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Texas Arlington (#757) I want my money ON Texas Arlington in a tournament setting. The Mavericks won 27 games last year but didn’t get a Big Dance bid, relegated to the NIT. They return loads of talent, starting with their senior point guard Erick Neal and senior big man Kevin Hervey. 7 foot graduate transfer Johnny Hamilton is a nasty low post defender and the team’s second leading scorer. Scott Cross has a rotation that goes nine players deep; only Neal averages 30 minutes per game - this a team we can support comfortably in a short turnaround, neutral court setting. It’s surely worth noting that UTA is a solid free throw shooting team, always key in this pointspread range. Niagara was a 10-23 team last year. Even with their starting cast returning, this squad can’t match the Mavs in terms of talent, size or depth, and their uptempo ways are bad news against a Mavs squad primed to take advantage of their transition opportunities. There’s a class difference between these two schools not reflected in this pointspread, and the Mavericks are a ‘bet-on’ team all the way in these tournament games, building a resume for March inclusion. Take UT-Arlington. |
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11-24-17 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -6 | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#516) My clients and I cashed a winner betting against the Memphis Grizzlies in their home loss to Portland earlier in the week. Let me start with an extended excerpt from that write-up, giving a clear explanation of why the Grizz are a ‘bet-against’ team right now moving forward. Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect current realities: Things have gone from bad to worse for David Fizdale’s squad in recent weeks, a ‘must fade’ team in this pointspread range against any decent foe. The Grizz went 5-1 to the open the season. They are 2-9 since. One of their two best players, point guard Mike Conley, is out indefinitely with an Achilles issue. Injuries have forced Fizdale to bring Mario Chalmers and Chandler Parsons into the starting lineup, which has left the Grizzlies second unit with a real lack of scoring punch. The quotes coming out of Memphis aren’t exactly loaded with confidence and positivity these days. Here are some excerpts from what Marc Gasol said to reporters over the weekend; ‘bet-against’ stuff! (Read the full interview here) http://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/nba/grizzlies/2017/11/19/grizzlies-center-marc-gasol-sounds-off-embarrassing-and-sad-team/878743001/) Asked why they are struggling: “I think selfishness, but I don’t want to think it’s in a bad way. I don’t think guys are being selfish intentionally. But they’re thinking too much, or they’re allowed to think too much on themselves than on the team. We’ve got to get stops as a team. We’ve got to get good shots as a team. If we don’t do that, it’s a ripple effect that’s just hard to stop. You allow some things to happen, and it’s just hard. Defense doesn’t work if it’s four out of five guys, or three, or most of the time it’s two… To me, it’s embarrassing and sad." Asked how difficult is it to remain positive? “I went to the back and I stood there for 20 minutes trying to think of what to say to you guys. The only thing I can say is I apologize because that’s not what our fans are used to seeing and we’ve got to figure it out…..you’ve got to at least have the mindset of trying to learn and being team first and executing single plays. We have three plays, maybe four. So there’s not that many to remember.” Asked what is the biggest obstacle to building the chemistry? “I can’t put my finger on one thing. It’s not one thing. It’s multiple things that are all tied to each other. What I’ll tell you is that everybody has to look in the mirror.” Denver returns home off a rough road trip, losing Paul Millsap to a long term injury while suffering ugly blowout losses at Houston and in LA against the Lakers. Millsap’s injury hurts, but it’s not a dealbreaker for this squad – head coach Mike Malone isn’t short on frontcourt depth. And there’s extra emphasis on tonight’s game for the home favorite, if you believe this quote from Coach Malone: "It (was) an emotional trip. You lose one of your best players for an extended period of time, and you're going home after a real tough loss. But we're going home together. We're going home united. And we're going home with a belief that we're heading in the right direction." The Nuggets have won each of their last four games at the Pepsi Center by eight points or more, including ‘quality’ wins over the Thunder and Pelicans. Expect that emerging trend to continue tonight in a step-up spot for the home team. Take the Nuggets. |
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11-24-17 | BYU v. Alabama -7.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#624) Sorry, ran out of time on one of the busiest betting days of the year, so I’ve posted a link to a key ‘anti-BYU’ piece of the equation from the Salt Lake City Tribune below. http://www.sltrib.com/sports/byu-cougars/2017/11/23/byu-less-than-thrilled-with-setup-for-game-in-brooklyn/ BYU isn’t ready to face quality competition, a team that has changed their style of play completely between recent years (uptempo) and 2017-18 (much slower pace). Dave Rose’s squad isn’t playing much defense either, allowing 50% from the floor in their last two ballgames. ‘Bama is going to make us money this year – Avery Johnson has pushed the right buttons for in terms of recruiting and on floor play, with the Crimson Tide excelling with super-frosh Collin Sexton at the point. Look for the Crimson Tide to run away with this one; a game that shouldn’t be close enough for a foul fest in the final minute. Take Alabama. |
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11-22-17 | Raptors v. Knicks +4 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Take the New York Knicks (#510) For many years, the homecourt at Madison Square Garden hasn’t provided much of an edge for the New York Knicks. That long term trend has been costing anti-Knicks bettors plenty so far this season. Since losing to Detroit by 4 in their first home game of the season, the Knicks are 8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS on this floor. That includes outright upsets over the Nuggets, Cavs, Pacers, Hornets and Clippers as well as a three point, spread-covering defeat to the Cavs. Betting ON the Knicks in New York is a moneymaking strategy for a young team that plays MUCH better at home (five road games, four 20+ point losses). One of those losses came to Toronto this past weekend, a non-competitive 23 point defeat. Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek, talking about the short turnaround rematch. "They took it to us pretty good. It's an opportunity to come back and do the right things. We're working our game, trying to be consistent with our effort every night, trying to make proper rotations, and if we can duplicate (Monday's win over the Los Angeles Clippers) in terms of that focus, we'll have a chance." The Raptors are living on hot shooting, just shy of 52% from the floor over their last five ballgames. That won’t be easy to duplicate here against a Knicks team holding foes to 42% shooting over their last five contests, even better than that at home. And Toronto is a ‘fat and happy’ squad off four straight wins, including a very satisfying victory over Eastern Conference rival Washington in their last game. Look for the Knicks to get their revenge here….or at least come pretty darn close. Take the Knicks. |
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11-20-17 | Wizards v. Bucks UNDER 207 | 99-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Milwaukee UNDER (#513-514) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winning bets riding the Wizards under-the-radar 78-0 Run to the Under. I have no hesitation coming right back with another Under wager on Monday, a game where Wizards sparkplug point guard John Wall is likely to be limited (knee) if he suits up at all. Let me start with an excerpt from my Wizards Under write-up from yesterday. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed eight straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight.” “John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following a win at Miami: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." Wall didn’t suit up yesterday, but the Wizards defense was still intense, holding Toronto to 40 second half points; another game that finished double digits Under the total. He might play tonight; I’m comfortable riding this Under trend whether Wall suits up or not. And the Bucks certainly play right into the ‘defensive mindset’ expectation this evening after a defensive no-show on Saturday at Dallas; the first time in five games that they had allowed more than 103 points. Bottom line – I’m going to ride this emerging Wizards Under trend, with the markets not seeming to show much interest in it…..yet! Take the Under. |
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11-20-17 | Blazers -2 v. Grizzlies | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#511) Things have gone from bad to worse for David Fizdale’s squad in recent weeks, a ‘must fade’ team in this pointspread range against any decent foe. The Grizz went 5-1 to the open the season. They are 2-7 since, including a one point win at Portland less than two weeks ago. One of their two best players, point guard Mike Conley, is out indefinitely with an Achilles issue. Injuries have forced Fizdale to bring Mario Chalmers and Chandler Parsons into the starting lineup, which has left the Grizzlies second unit with a real lack of scoring punch. The quotes coming out of Memphis aren’t exactly loaded with confidence and positivity these days. Here’s some excerpts from what Marc Gasol said to reporters over the weekend; ‘bet-against’ stuff! (Read the full interview here) http://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/nba/grizzlies/2017/11/19/grizzlies-center-marc-gasol-sounds-off-embarrassing-and-sad-team/878743001/) Asked why they are struggling: “I think selfishness, but I don’t want to think it’s in a bad way. I don’t think guys are being selfish intentionally. But they’re thinking too much, or they’re allowed to think too much on themselves than on the team. We’ve got to get stops as a team. We’ve got to get good shots as a team. If we don’t do that, it’s a ripple effect that’s just hard to stop. You allow some things to happen, and it’s just hard. Defense doesn’t work if it’s four out of five guys, or three, or most of the time it’s two… To me, it’s embarrassing and sad." Asked how difficult is it to remain positive? “I went to the back and I stood there for 20 minutes trying to think of what to say to you guys. The only thing I can say is I apologize because that’s not what our fans are used to seeing and we’ve got to figure it out…..you’ve got to at least have the mindset of trying to learn and being team first and executing single plays. We have three plays, maybe four. So there’s not that many to remember.” Asked what is the biggest obstacle to building the chemistry? “I can’t put my finger on one thing. It’s not one thing. It’s multiple things that are all tied to each other. What I’ll tell you is that everybody has to look in the mirror. That’s how things get solved. If you don’t do your part, I don’t care how many fingers we point at each other, that doesn’t help. You’ve got to do your part first. Be honest with yourself.” Portland’s one point loss at home to the Grizz came on a night where Mike Conley’s defense shut down Damian Lillard, to the tune of 12 points on 4-16 shooting. I’m expecting a much better showing from the Blazers point guard without his Grizzlies counterpart on the floor. Take the Blazers. |
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11-20-17 | Pacers v. Magic -3.5 | 105-97 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#508) There’s a real sense of urgency in Orlando tonight. The Magic have seen their hot start go south of late. After a win in Phoenix last weekend, Frank Vogel’s squad proceeded to close out their road trip with three consecutive losses. They returned home on Saturday and got absolutely blitzed, trailing by as many as 46 in an ugly loss to Utah. They’ve got another four game road trip looming on deck, starting in Minnesota on Wednesday. Clearly, this is a ‘step-up’ spot for the short home favorite. Head coach Frank Vogel: “We'll see how we respond to this game. I'm less concerned with what happened in this game and more concerned with how we respond from it." Point guard Elfrid Payton: “Monday is a must-win for this group. Obviously, it's still early. We still have time to get better. But internally I feel like we've got to show some fight." Center Nikola Vucevic: “It's critical that we get these……at home, we have to find a way." Make no mistake about it – this is a bigtime flat spot on Indiana’s schedule. On Friday Night, the Pacers played with maximum intensity, rallying from a 22 point second half deficit to beat the Pistons. That momentum carried forward to their game at Miami yesterday; a game where they shot 60% from the field while getting whistled for only 14 hours in four quarters of basketball. Now, playing on the second of back-2-backs and their third game in four nights, coming off a max intensity game and a ridiculously hot shooting game, look for the Pacers to fall back to earth against their ‘max motivation’ foe. Take the Magic. |
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11-19-17 | Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 212.5 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Toronto UNDER (#703-704) My clients and I have cashed several winning bets riding the Wizards under-the-radar 7-0 Run to the Under. I have no hesitation coming right back with another Under wager in early start action today, a game where Wizards sparkplug point guard John Wall will be limited (knee) if he suits up at all. Let me start with an excerpt from my Wizards Under write-up from Friday Night. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed seven straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight.” “John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following a win at Miami in the first half of this home & home set: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." But Brooks was not amused by the Wizards defensive effort against Miami in the rematch on Friday, despite the fact that the Heat were held to 91 points on 41% shooting. “We got down on ourselves. When we got down on ourselves, we put our heads down instead of running back and making up for it on the other end. The stats basically tell you that. They had 19 fast-break points in the first half." I’m expecting a step-up effort defensively from the Wizards today, and the Raptors just held the Knicks to 84 points on Friday Night in a strong defensive showing of their own. Bottom line – I’m going to ride this emerging Wizards Under trend, with the markets not seeming to show much interest in it…..yet! Take the Under. |
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11-18-17 | Jazz v. Magic -6.5 | 125-85 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#504) My clients and I have cashed a pair of winners betting against the Utah Jazz already this week. We cashed with a double digit home loss for Utah against Minnesota, then a late game meltdown loss against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. And quite frankly, Utah’s losing ways are primed to continue in Orlando this evening. Make no mistake about it – this Jazz team is WAY down from what we saw last year. Utah got nothing from losing their best offensive player from last year in free agency, Gordon Hayward. They just lost their best defensive player, low post stud Rudy Gobert, out till mid-December. Starting point guard Ricky Rubio is banged up, very questionable to play this evening. Thabo Sefolosha has a bum knee, unable to suit up last night. Veteran sharpshooter Joe Johnson is sitting with a wrist injury. Right now, Quin Snyder’s rotation isn’t pretty – lots of young guys getting court time they probably don’t deserve. It’s not like the Jazz were playing good ball when Gobert got hurt – they’d lost four straight before a win over Brooklyn, and they’ve dropped their last three SU and ATS. The Jazz have shown no ability to win (or even hang tough) on the highway this season: 0-6 SU and just 1-5 ATS, including an 8 point loss to the sub .500 Clippers, a 9 point loss to the bottom feeder Suns and an 11 point loss in the rematch at Brooklyn last night. It gets worse for the road dog. The short-handed Jazz have been through the ringer, schedule wise this month already. They are on their second set of back-to-back games in the last nine days; playing their sixth game in those nine days; anything but confident and fresh right now. Orlando hasn’t played since Wednesday and they’ve only had one set of back-2-backs all month. I expect them to be fresher here. And there’s a real sense of urgency in Orlando tonight after their hot start went south on a just concluded 1-3 road trip, with another road trip looming next week. Center Nikola Vucevic: “It's critical that we get these next two games at home. Right now, we're 8-7 and we need to stay above .500 before we go on this next trip. It's very important that we get these next two….. We have to find a way." I’m not seeing quotes like that from Utah right about now……Take the Magic. |
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11-17-17 | Pelicans v. Nuggets OVER 220.5 | 114-146 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans – Denver OVER (#719-720) Denver’s season long numbers show ‘middle of the pack’ pace ratings; not an uptempo, breakneck type of pace. New Orleans has played faster than Denver, but the Pelicans, too, haven’t played at a blistering pace on a consistent basis – yet! Both teams are playing faster now. New Orleans just got Rajon Rondo back from injury, giving them another strong passer in the backcourt. Big men Boogie and Brow are both enjoying CAREER high offensive efficiency numbers, finally fully acclimated to Alvin Gentry’s offense. And the results are very clear. The Pelicans have reached 111 four times in their last five games while shooting at a 52% clip, a stellar offensive ballclub right now. Denver’s early season numbers were weak on the offensive end of the court, and they cashed five consecutive unders to open the season, held to 105 or less in every game. That was then, this is now. On their last homestand, the Nuggets hung 129 on Toronto, 108 on Golden State!!, 112 on Brooklyn and 125 on Orlando, showing the type of ball movement that made head coach Mike Malone smile. But Denver is coming off a particularly flat effort at Portland on Wednesday, held to 82 points on 35.7% shooting; a wire-2-wire blowout loss. With starting guard Gary Harris back in the lineup this evening, sparkplug Will Barton heads back to his normal role as a primary scorer off the bench. Look for Denver offensive mojo to get back on track here in a highly entertaining uptempo Friday Night Shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-17-17 | Hornets -6 v. Bulls | 120-123 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Charlotte (#713) My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against the Bulls in their last home game, an 18 point loss to the Pacers. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up “Here’s the key quote from Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg, trying to make lemonade out of lemons after the Bulls second half comeback attempt fell short at Toronto on Tuesday: “The big thing with this team is when you have a learning opportunity, you grow. And I think our guys have responded well to that." For a young, rebuilding team like the Bulls, it’s all about ‘learning opportunities’ and ‘growing’. “Read between the lines of that quote and you’ll see the reality of the 2017-18 Bulls. Chicago might win a handful of games on hot shooting nights. They might win another handful of games when their opponents look past them. But the Bulls – even with Bobby Portis back in the lineup following his suspension – still rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring only 92.9 points per 100 possessions, a full dozen points lower than the NBA average”. My handicap on Chicago is very simple right now. Motivated teams going to beat the Bulls by margin. We’ve already seen three of the Bulls first five home games end with double digit defeats. And Charlotte is supremely motivated, coming off a dismal defensive showing in Nicolas Batum’s first game back from injury; their fifth consecutive defeat. This is a MAJOR step down in class for Steve Clifford’s squad, and there’s a real sense of urgency following their disappointing start. Clifford, talking about shortening his bench for their upcoming stretch of games: “In the next six (games), we'll play five of those against teams that were picked top 5 in either the East or the West. This isn't the time for guys to grow up; either they're ready to play or they're not." I expect them to be ready to beat the weak by margin in Chicago tonight. And it’s probably worth noting that the Hornets are a perfect 3-0 YTD when laying -4 or higher, showing early success in this pointspread role. Take the Hornets. |
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11-17-17 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 208 | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Miami UNDER (#703-704) Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed six straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight. John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following the win at Miami in the first half of this home & home set: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." Miami had no answers to the Wizards defensive pressure on Wednesday Night, taking one contested shot after the next, failing to reach 20 points in two of the four quarters. But the Heat are taking the challenge of slowing down Wall and Beal very seriously after that duo torched Miami for 53 points on Wednesday. Head coach Eric Spoelstra: “It seemed like they were living in the paint and at the free-throw line.” I’m not expecting that to happen two games in a row against a solid defensive squad. Take the Under. |
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers UNDER 221 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Take LA Lakers – Philadelphia UNDER (#721-722) The betting markets have been DEAD WRONG about the Lakers totals of late. And with Over money pouring in once again on the Lake-show, I have no hesitation getting involved with an Under bet this evening. Last year, the Lakers finished the season as the worst defensive team of the DECADE based on advanced metric stats. This year, so far, LA ranks #4 in defensive efficiency, holding foes under a point per possession. On their just concluded four game road trip, Over money showed for the Lakers in every single game. They stayed Under the total in Boston by 11.5 points, in Washington by 16.5 points, in Milwaukee by 29 points and in Phoenix by 37.5 points. LA is now 8-3 to the Under in their last eleven ballgames. They’ve just held back-2-back foes Under 100 points; both fast paced teams, holding foes to 43% shooting from the floor in their last five contests. The Lakers offensively are still very much a work in progress with rookie point guard Lonzo Ball still struggling with his shot – this team does not have a go-to scorer anywhere on the roster. This is a dead nuts Under team right now, with the markets continuing to point in the wrong direction. Both LA and Philly play relatively fast, amongst the league leaders in possessions per game – hence the total sitting above 220 as a write this. That’s simply too high for the Lake-show right now; a clear choice for this bettor. Take the UNDER. |
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11-15-17 | Jazz v. Knicks -3.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take the New York Knicks (#704) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner betting against the Utah Jazz on Monday; a game they trailed by double digits wire-2-wire at home against the T-wolves. And I have no hesitation continuing to fade Utah tonight as they open up an East Coast swing. Make no mistake about it. Utah got nothing from losing their best offensive player from last year in free agency, Gordon Hayward. They just lost their best defensive player, low post stud Rudy Gobert, out till mid-December. Like many teams do, the Jazz stepped up in their first game without their emerging young star, knocking off Brooklyn. What we saw from the Jazz last time out was much more indicative of what we can expect to see moving forward; a young team that lacks an identity right now; struggling on both ends of the court. It’s not like the Jazz were playing good ball when Gobert got hurt – they’d lost four straight before the win over Brooklyn. And it’s not like the Jazz have shown any ability to win on the highway this season: 0-4 SU including an 8 point loss to the sub .500 Clippers, a 9 point loss to the bottom feeder Suns and a 27 point loss at Houston in their last try as a road underdog. And, after closing out a stretch of eight home games in a nine game span with another defeat, it’s not like Quin Snyder’s squad is hitting the highway with a boatload of confidence right now. Despite the Jazz strong defensive reputation and even with Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz had allowed 48% shooting and 108 points per game against them in their previous five contests. That’s bad news against the suddenly competitive Knicks, a much better team (on and off the floor) since Carmelo Anthony got traded in the offseason. The Knicks big, bruising frontcourt – Kristaps Porzingas is playing like a superstar; Enes Kanter is grabbing 11 rebounds per game and Kyle O’Quinn has been impressive coming off the bench – is primed to take advantage of Utah without Gobert. The Knicks are 3-0 ATS in three tries as chalk this year, an emerging trend worth riding tonight. Take the Knicks. |
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11-15-17 | Wizards v. Heat -1 | 102-93 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#702) The Miami Heat swept all four games against the Washington Wizards last year, and it wasn’t an accident. Miami has quality depth; Washington doesn’t. Again and again, throughout the four meetings, when the Wizards starters left the floor, Miami made a run. That hasn’t changed in the offseason, two teams that look very similar today to how they looked six months ago. Washington’s bench continues to underachieve. They get a little bit of perimeter shooting from Mike Scott and Jodie Meeks. Kelly Oubre Jr has shown real signs of improvement in his third season. But make no mistake about it – when the Wizards face a team that has quality depth, they’re at a legitimate disadvantage. The Wizards have been feasting on a schedule loaded with weaklings. They’ve already faced the Lakers and Kings twice as well as Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix and Cleveland, when the Cavs were at their worst. Note the lousy defenses that they’ve been facing. Their just concluded homestand came against teams that are a combined 13-43 SU this season. I’m not expecting tonight’s step-up in class game to work out well for the road team in a game they must win to cover the spread. Meanwhile, Miami returns home off a confidence inspiring road trip. Sure, they went just 3-3, but all three losses all came in competitive fashion against teams that are a combined 29-12. Hassan Whiteside is now fully healthy off some early season injury woes. Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters make up the most underrated starting backcourt in the league; capable of hanging with Beal and Wall. And Eric Spoelstra’s deep bench is primed to be the superior unit again tonight in a game the Heat are primed to win. Take the Heat. |
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11-14-17 | Kansas v. Kentucky OVER 152 | 65-61 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Kansas – Kentucky OVER (#529-530) Kentucky is as young as it gets in college basketball, with John Calipari trotting out a starting lineup with five true freshmen. And Calipari is well aware that his young squad is struggling mightily on the defensive end of the court in early season play. His quote: “We’re just getting beat on the dribble by everybody. And defense starts on the ball. It always had. And if you can’t guard the ball it’s hard to win.” The Wildcats want to get out and run, but they haven’t been able to play at their preferred pace in either of their first two ballgames. They faced two slowdown, veteran squads in Utah Valley and Vermont at Rupp Arena to open the season, forcing the Wildcats to execute their halfcourt sets on both ends of the court. Clearly, Kentucky did not pass the ‘we’ve got our halfcourt execution down’ test. Of course, that sets up real value for Wildcats Over bettors tonight, facing a team that plays at a very different pace than the ones they’ve seen so far. Kansas isn’t built to play grinders any more than Kentucky is. With a savvy returning point guard in Devonte Graham, coming off a confidence and chemistry building summer trip to Italy, Bill Self’s squad is primed to run up and down the floor. They hung 56 on Tennessee State in the first HALF of their opener before slowing down the tempo in a blowout victory. Again, the ‘pace’ numbers won’t show Kansas as playing fast in that game because the second half was so slow, offering value for Over bettors here. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-13-17 | 76ers +2 v. Clippers | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#715) The Clippers current slide is nothing to sugarcoat. They’ve lost five straight games SU and ATS, including a pair of home losses as favorites against the Heat and Grizzlies. In fact, since a couple of early blowouts, the Clips are just 1-4 SU here at the Staples Center in their last five tries, the lone win coming against hapless Dallas. What’s wrong with LA? Lots of things that Doc Rivers isn’t likely to be able to fix anytime soon. The Clippers have injury woes, missing their top two point guards Patrick Beverly and Milos Teodosic. And the always injury prone Danilo Gallinari is sidelined again as well. They’re a sub .500 team now despite strong offensive stats, ranked #4 in the NBA in efficiency – stats that are primed to decline as they continue to play without their best point guards. Rookies Sindarius Thornwell and Juwan Evans are getting backcourt minutes they probably don’t deserve. Defensively, the Clippers have been a sieve, allowing more than 113 points per game on 50% shooting during their current skid. I want my money on Philly off back-2-back losses. The Sixers were flat and lethargic in a one point loss at Sacramento last Thursday, and followed it up with arguably their worst second half of the year after trailing by only one against Golden State at halftime. Think Philly is ready for a better effort tonight? These quotes might give you a glimpse…. Head coach Brett Brown: “The bar is set a little bit higher. The expectations are a little bit higher.I want to own it. With Joel healthy, I think we should. That’s what I’m trying to do. You can’t poke yourself in the eye. Those games haunt you. And, for all those reasons, I have the reaction that I had last night (off the bad loss) that, as you accurately say, has been different in previous years…. There are parts of (the Warriors game) that I think you will find positives in, but we feel like we're past that.” Robert Covington: “We will be better prepared. We have an idea how they are going to play. And we are (going to make) it be a different outcome." Joel Embiid: “We just have to do a better job. With the expectations out there, I don’t like using the excuse that we’re young, and I’m never going to use that. We’ve just got to do a better job of winning the games we are supposed to.” Ben Simmons: “I don’t think anyone expected us to come out like this, and have a strong start like this, but that’s what we expect. We come in every day trying to get better and win. That’s our goal. We should win games like that.” Take the 76ers. |
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11-13-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Jazz | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#709) The Utah Jazz had lost four straight before knocking off lowly Brooklyn on Saturday Night. They did it without elite defensive center Rudy Gobert in the lineup – he’s out till mid-December. Make no mistake about it – this is an impact injury for a guy who is averaging a double double while providing a serious shot blocking threat from the low post. Utah’s quotes following the game have a real ‘fat and happy’ feel to them following the end of their losing skid, despite the fact that the win came over the Nets. Derrick Favors: “We definitely needed this one. We came together as a team. We just went out there and played with a lot of energy. Rudy (Gobert) was out, so it was a team effort, defensively, offensively. We came in and brought a lot of energy, and won the game." Despite the Jazz strong defensive reputation and even with Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz had allowed 48% shooting and 108 points per game against them in their previous five contests, bad news with the high scoring Timberwolves coming to town; a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency. And the T-wolves enter this game in a nasty mood, with something to prove following ugly losses to the Warriors and Suns in their last two contests. Head coach Tom Thibodeau, following the ugly loss to the Suns in which Minnesota allowed a pair of 35 point scorers: "We've got to execute and we didn't execute. We got the lead and we gave it away. We took some tough shots and we just couldn't stop them." Expect a better defensive effort here, and better three point shooting as well, after the T-wolves managed to hit just 9-46 from beyond the arc in their last two ballgames. Look for a focused effort from the road favorite, start to finish. Take the T-wolves. |
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11-13-17 | Kings v. Wizards UNDER 208 | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Sacramento UNDER (#701-702) Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Three of their last four opponents have failed to reach the century mark and they’ve cashed four consecutive Under bets. That’s a streak primed to continue on Monday Night. John Wall, following the Wizards shutdown defensive effort last Thursday: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following their lone defensively weak game during this span, allowing 133 to the Mavericks: “It starts with me and John. We’ve got to come out better and be better leaders on the team. The rest will follow.” Sacramento ranks #29 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, a VERY limited team on that end of the court. They play at the #28 pace in the league – typical Dave Joeger basketball, not looking to push the pace against anybody. Sacto has been held under 100 points six times in their last seven games, and they managed just 83 points on 39% shooting against the Wizards less than three weeks ago, a game that stayed Under 208.5. Expect another Under cash tonight! Take the Under |
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11-11-17 | 76ers +14 v. Warriors | 114-135 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#713) These teams have played five times since the calendar turned to 2015. The 76ers have covered the spread all five times. Three of those five meetings were decided by five points or less; the other two by 11 and 12, both still competitive in the fourth quarter. Last year, the Sixers came to Golden State and battled the Warriors to the wire, losing by 2 as 17 point dogs. And while the pointspread is a notch or two lower than last year’s meeting on this floor, I have no hesitation betting on Philly as a double digit underdog in a ‘step-up’ game for the road team. The 76ers have only one loss by more than ten points all year. They’ve won outright as underdogs on the road against the likes of Houston, Detroit and Utah; 5-1 ATS when catching points. The Sixers are in max intensity mode here, coming off a blown fourth quarter lead at Sacramento when they lost by a single point. Head coach Brett Brown, following that defeat: "We didn't execute anything down the stretch. We didn't deserve to win." I do not expect this to be a long term problem for the Sixers… Golden State is fat and happy, off five consecutive wins and covers. They’ll get Kevin Durant back in the lineup this evening, a classic NBA spot where big favorites tend to let down a little bit, especially given Omri Casspi’s impressive production while Durant was out. With an awkward early start time, facing a highly motivated defensive minded opponent with something to prove, look for this game to be a battle, not a blowout! Take the 76ers. |
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11-10-17 | Pacers -3 v. Bulls | 105-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#505) There’s an extreme sense of urgency for the Indiana Pacers tonight as they travel to Chicago in the midst of a four game losing streak. Veteran forward Thaddeus Young: "It's still early in the season. But you lose four in a row, you have some things to talk about. You try to nip that in the bud before it gets out of hand." Emerging young center Myles Turner: "You can't have a negative mindset this early in the season, but we definitely have to get the ball rolling. Chicago is a must win for us." There’s no shame in the Pacers recent skid – they were underdogs or pick ‘em priced in every game, all while trying to get their star big man Myles Turner acclimated and back in the rotation following a seven game absence. And, following two sets of back-2-backs resulting in a stretch of six games in nine nights, the Pacers had a much needed off day yesterday, primed to bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Here’s the key quote from Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg, trying to make lemonade out of lemons after the Bulls second half comeback attempt fell short at Toronto on Tuesday: “The big thing with this team is when you have a learning opportunity, you grow. And I think our guys have responded well to that." For a young, rebuilding team like the Bulls, it’s all about ‘learning opportunities’ and ‘growing’. Read between the lines of that quote and you’ll see the reality of the 2017-18 Bulls. Chicago might win a handful of games on hot shooting nights. They might win another handful of games when their opponents look past them. But the Pacers won’t be looking past Chicago tonight and the Bulls – even with Bobby Portis back in the lineup following his suspension – still rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring only 94.2 points per 100 possessions. Expect a comfortable win for the road chalk. Take the Pacers. |
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11-09-17 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 228 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Houston OVER (#705-706) When it comes to pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, this game has all the makings of a true shootout, from start to finish. Despite their early season struggles, the Cavs currently rank #2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Houston ranks #3 in that same category at 108.4 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets offense has been clicking on all cylinders in each of their last three games, hanging 119, 119 and 137 on their last three foes. Head coach Mike D’Antoni, talking about their recent uptick even without Chris Paul on the floor: “The first eight games I don't think we played well. The last three we've played well and now we've just got to keep it going and keep improving.” Defensively, it’s another story entirely. The Cavs rank dead last in the NBA by a wide margin, allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets are better, but they’re certainly no elite defensive squad. Both of these teams spread out the floor and get the ball to open shooters with efficiency. That’s why last year’s two meetings produced 229 and 248 points. From a ‘pace’ standpoint, both of these two squads have been middle of the pack when we look at the full season numbers. But Houston has upped their pace of play in recent games and Cleveland tends to run with anyone who will run with them, as we saw very clearly when Washington went uptempo on them last week; a wild 130-122 shootout that flew Over the total by nearly 30 points. No surprise if we see a similar scoreboard explosion tonight between these two elite offensive squads. Take the Over. |
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11-08-17 | Heat -5.5 v. Suns | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#507) Here’s the key quote, from Suns veteran big man Jared Dudley, after Phoenix lost their third straight game on Monday: "We are going to have a problem with consistency throughout the year….Since Jay took over, we might have had one or one-and-a-half practices. We've had a lot of games, and there is only so much you can go over, so much film you can do. I think he's a done great job so far. I just think that we need to ride this stretch before next week beginning a couple practices and going over certain things that we need to go through on the defensive end." The Suns have gotten a little bit better since Jay Triano took over for Earl Watson following their dismal start, at least from an effort standpoint. But from a defensive standpoint, the Suns remain a bottom five team. It’s the same story on offense, no surprise for a team that suspended, then traded their starting point guard, leaving D-League veteran (but undrafted NBA rookie) Mike James at the point. This is not a strong homecourt either, as clearly evidenced by the Suns home losses to the Nets and Lakers already. Miami is hungry after losing two of three to open up their West Coast swing. Team captain Hassan Whiteside was benched in the second half of their loss at Golden State on Monday; from all indications a positive situation moving forward. Head coach Erik Spoelstra: “This is one game. He understands how important he is to our team to play at a high level, high energy level, so we'll move on to Phoenix and look to have a much better game." The Heat have won by six points or more four times on their last five visits to Phoenix. They beat the Suns by 15 in their last game against them, primed to take care of business with a relatively comfortable road victory tonight. Take the Heat. |
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11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah (#714) Joel Embiid is the moral equivalent of Lebron James when it comes to how his team plays when he’s not on the floor. The Cavs have been nothing short of awful in games that LeBron sits in recent seasons, a ‘bet-against’ team all the way without their superstar on the floor. It’s the exact same story in Philly, without the dramatic pointspread adjustment when Embiid doesn’t play. The results do not lie. Over the last two seasons, the 76ers have played like a 50-win team with Embiid on the floor. When Embiid is on the bench, the Sixers have played like a 12 win team. He sat out one previous game here in the new campaign, at Toronto. The 76ers were nine point underdogs in that game. They were down by 17 after the first quarter in a 32 point, non-competitive defeat, their single worst loss of the season. Embiid is sitting tonight, which speaks volumes about how the coaching staff is viewing this West Coast road trip – they’ve got a winnable game against the Kings up next, followed by a ‘statement’ game against Golden State, then the two LA teams at the Staples Center. This team has won four straight, in anything BUT a ‘max intensity’ spot tonight. Utah throttled Philly in both meetings last year, winning by 17 at home and by 25 on the road. Embiid sat for one of those meetings and was limited to 19 minutes due to foul trouble in the other as the likes of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors dominated the low post for the Jazz. Those matchup edges for Utah in the paint haven’t been altered in the offseason. And the Jazz are in a ‘circle the wagons’ spot off back-2-back losses, including a dismal 137-110 blowout loss at Houston over the weekend. We’ve seen the Jazz bounce back well before – their lone previous two game skid ended with back-2-back 15 point blowout wins. Quin Snyder’s squad is a perfect 4-0 ATS as home chalk this season, an emerging trend worth noting. And from all indications, the Jazz have this game circled after getting bombed by the Rockets. The Jazz hadn’t allowed an opponent to shoot better than 53.5% from the floor against them since last February, but they’ve allowed that in each of their last two games. Wing Joe Ingles: “It’s pretty hard to forget. That [expletive] was embarrassing, really.” Coach Snyder: “You just have to refocus and be solid. We weren’t disciplined. There’s always slippage throughout the season. We had some slippage last night and got our tails kicked by one of the best offensive teams in the league. You learn from it. We don’t ignore or forget about it.” The quote that stands out the most is this one, from center Ekpe Udoh following that loss to Houston: “It was a letdown. Next time we’ll be ready.” I concur! Big Ticket: Take the Jazz. |
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11-05-17 | Celtics -3.5 v. Magic | 104-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#707) The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward five minutes into the season. Boston lost on opening night, then lost the following night at home to Milwaukee. The betting markets immediately devalued Boston; a team with a whole host of new faces just learning to play with one another. That was a mistake! Head coach Brad Stevens has worked his magic. The Celtics haven’t lost since that defeat to the Bucks on the second night of the season. That includes road wins, by margin, at Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Miami and OKC; all of whom are as good or better than the Magic team they’ll face today. It’s surely worth noting that Stevens’ gameplan carved up Frank Vogel’s defense in all three meetings last year, with the Celtics sweeping the series, scoring 117+ in every game. The Celtics enter Sunday with the #1defense in the NBA, allowing fewer than 96 points per 100 possessions. That’s bad news for a Magic team with point guard issues right now. Shelvin Mack started at the point in Orlando’s 22 point home loss to Chicago on Friday. DJ Augustin is hurt. Elfrid Payton could return today off a seven game absence, but I’m not convinced he’ll be able to outplay Kyrie Irving in stellar current form in his first game back off a lingering hamstring injury. Cheap price to lay! Take the Celtics. |
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11-03-17 | Pacers v. 76ers -5.5 | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#708) The Sixers are ‘bet-on’ all the way right now, while the Pacers are in a prime bet-against spot this evening, setting the stage for what should be a relatively one-sided affair. Since their 0-3 start, the Sixers are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS, the lone loss coming by a single point on a buzzer beater against the mighty Rockets. The Joel Embiid/Ben Simmons combo has been even better than expected – Philly’s got a ‘Big 2’ right now capable of competing with any duo in the league. And the Sixers are loaded with perimeter shooters to take advantage of the Pacers relatively soft D; a better team (at least for now) without having to get injured rookie Markelle Fultz acclimated to the NBA game. Philly just covered as home chalk against Atlanta in their last contest, showing clear signs of being trustworthy in this role. The Pacers have won three straight and covered the spread in five of their last six. But Indiana is in that classic trap spot this evening. They just beat the Cavs in Cleveland as ten point dogs, a HUGE win for this team. They’re best player, Myles Turner, could be back in the lineup tonight following a two week absence. Put those two factors together and this game has all the makings of trouble for Indiana – fat and happy off some big wins & fat and happy that their low post stud has returned. The Pacers currently rank #3 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, shooting 48% from the floor, 39% from three point range while averaging 111.5 points per game. This team is not built to maintain those ridiculously hot early season shooting stats; a regression waiting for the opening tip tonight! This is a mismatch being priced as a competitive contest. Take the 76ers. |
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11-01-17 | Magic v. Grizzlies OVER 203.5 | 101-99 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Orlando – Memphis OVER (#713-714) Orlando head coach Frank Vogel worked some magic in the preseason, and his roster has surely benefitted from a relatively benign offseason, returning most of their talent from last year. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have the #2 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA, averaging 111 points per 100 possessions. Only the Warriors have been better. And Orlando is playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA – only the ultra uptempo Nets and Suns are playing faster, a huge uptick from last year. Memphis, too, has upped their offensive efficiency in early season play, up a notch or two from where they’ve been in each of the last two seasons. And like Orlando, the Grizzlies have upped their pace, playing more than three possessions per game faster than last year. Memphis is coming off their worst offensive game of the season, hitting just 34% from the floor in a loss to Charlotte. Leading scorers Mike Conley and Marc Gasol hit only 8-33 from the floor between them, scoring only 26 points. It’s surely worth noting that they still hung 99 on the Hornets, despite a miserable game from their top two offensive weapons. Head coach David Fisdale: “It just seemed like we couldn't make a layup when we had an open layup. When we had open threes, we couldn't make open threes." I’m expecting a strong offensive bounceback here, setting the stage for what should be a relatively high scoring affair. Take the Over. |
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10-31-17 | Thunder v. Bucks +2 | 110-91 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#506) Oklahoma City had two great strengths last year. First, Russell Westbrook had one of the most epic seasons in the history of the NBA, named MVP after averaging a triple double for the entirety of the campaign. And second – the hidden factor – was the strength of the Thunder frontcourt, as OKC finished with the single best rebounding differential in the league, giving them extra possession after extra possession. That was then, this is now. OKC still has the star power, with Westbrook joined by offseason acquisitions Carmelo Anthony and Paul George. But the moves that brought those two scorers into town have had residual effects, most notably on OKC’s ability to dominate the low post in the absence of a trio of departed big men: Enes Kanter, Domantas Sabonis and Taj Gibson. A Thunder team that ranked #1 in rebounding margin last year currently ranks #18, outboarded by nearly two rebounds per game. The Bucks were +12 on the boards in their double digit win at Atlanta on Sunday, despite the absence of role playing center Greg Monroe in the lineup. They’ve lost their two previous ‘statement’ games at home to the Cavs and Celtics; their only two losses of the season, and they appear to be taking tonight’s game particularly seriously, with a four game road trip starting tomorrow. Last year’s Rookie of the Year, Malcolm Brogden:"It shows us where we’re at. It’s a good test for us.” Quite frankly, the Bucks are ready to start passing these tests! Fear the Deer! Take the Bucks |
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10-30-17 | Magic +8 v. Pelicans | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#709) The betting markets are showing a notch or two too much love for the Pelicans tonight, while not showing much love for a Magic squad that is clicking on all cylinders in early season NBA play. The advanced metric stats show Orlando’s edge fairly dramatically. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have the #2 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA, averaging 111 points per 100 possessions, running Frank Vogel’s offense quite efficiently. Only the Warriors have been better; New Orleans trails in the stat rankings. It’s a similar story on defense, where the Magic rank #12, allowing 101.1 points per 100 possessions. The Pelicans have picked up right where they left off last year, ranked #19 on D while allowing more than 105 points per 100 possessions. The stats AND the standings both show Orlando as a team that isn’t getting the betting market respect that they deserve just yet. The markets have knee-jerked towards the Pelicans in early betting action on Monday, with Orlando playing on the second night of back-2-backs, while New Orleans is rested. But Orlando goes ten deep these days, not a team with a limited rotation. We saw them in a road back-2-back once already this season, losing at Brooklyn in the first game, but bouncing back with a 21 point win at Cleveland on the second night. Meanwhile, New Orleans has been a money burner as home chalk throughout the Alvin Gentry era; not a trustworthy team to lay an inflated price with tonight. Take the Magic. |
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10-29-17 | Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 | 124-111 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#510) I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. Brooklyn has won every previous home game this season in SU fashion, a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on this floor. They’re coming off a complete no-show at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks on Friday Night, a prime bounceback spot. Nets forward DeMarre Carroll, talking about the team’s lack of focus on Friday: “We came out the gate and they were the more aggressive team. Credit to them. They basically just kicked our butts. They threw it up at the goal and just knocked us out of the way and went and got it." Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson talking about his team letting down after a big upset win over Cleveland: “We have to play better and we have to handle success a little better. That is the next step for this team. We have good leaders. We will bounce back." Denver has a grand total of one pointspread cover in five games so far, an overvalued commodity in early season play. The Nuggets youthful point guards Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay are not a ‘let’s lay points with them on the highway’ duo. The Nuggets, too, cannot be trusted coming off a win, and let’s not forget that Denver lost SU right here at the Barclays Center as 4.5 point road favorites last year as well. Take the Nets. |
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10-28-17 | 76ers -1.5 v. Mavs | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#709) Abbreviated write-up on a very busy college football Saturday. The Sixers are ‘bet-on’ all the way right now, while Dallas is in a tough spot tonight, setting the stage for what should be a relatively easy victory for the road favorite. Since their 0-3 start, the Sixers won SU as road underdogs at Detroit and came within an Eric Gordon buzzer beater of knocking off mighty Houston. Joel Embiid is in tonight, and Ben Simmons is a triple double threat every time he takes the floor. The Sixers are loaded with perimeter shooters to take advantage of the Mavericks soft D , ranked #28 in defensive efficiency. The Sixers are catching Dallas in a tough situation, playing their third game in four nights after back-2-back grueling, physical contests against the Grizzlies. Dallas opened 2-13 SU last year and are showing every indication that they’ll be lottery bound again this season. And this is not a particularly strong homecourt, with the Mavs losing three times in their first four home games, twice as favorites against lowly Sacramento and Atlanta. Philly beat this team 116-74 in their most recent meeting, and we can expect another comfortable win for the Sixers tonight. Take the 76ers. |
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10-26-17 | Clippers v. Blazers -2.5 | 104-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#708) The Blazers are a ‘bet-on’ team right now, but the betting markets haven’t caught up with their hot start. Remember, the Blazers were as hot as any team in the NBA down the stretch last year, rallying to snatch the #8 seed in the West after acquiring Jusuf Nurkic from Denver at the trading deadline. They’ve picked up right where they left off as an undervalued commodity, with Nurkic and fellow defensive minded frontcourt mate Al Farouq Aminu controlling the paint. Make no mistake about it -- Portland dominating the rebounding battle on a nightly basis; the #1 team in the NBA in rebounding margin AND in percentage of available rebounds that they’ve been able to snare. The Clippers biggest strength is their ability to dominate the glass, winning the rebounding battle in each of their first three ballgames. That’s not likely to happen tonight, certainly not by any sort of a margin. And the injury bug has really sapped whatever limited depth the Clippers had coming into the campaign. Doc Rivers bench is paper thin right now, bad news against arguably the deepest Blazers team of my lifetime. Portland point guard Damian Lillard: "We have so many guys we can count on. Each game we've played, guys have come in and gotten the job done. They're helping us produce wins. When you're doing that over a period of time, you see you're a deeper team.” Look for the Clippers first game outside the Staples Center to be a SU and ATS defeat. Take the Blazers. |
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