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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the TITANS The 2-2 Titans host the 3-1 Bills and the big story heading into this game is who will play quarterback for the road team. Josh Allen was knocked out of last week's 16-10 loss to the Patriots. For much of the week, there was speculation that Matt Barkley would have to start for Buffalo. But Allen has reportedly cleared concussion protocol and will be under center. We're still taking Tennessee. After back to back losses, the Titans looked good last week in a 24-10 upset of Atlanta. You wouldn't know it was an upset simply by watching as they controlled that game from start to finish. After playing three of their first four games on the road, it'll be nice playing at home this week. The Titans were 12-4 SU at home the last two years, but did lose here to the Colts in Week 2. But they were ahead in that game in the 4th quarter. Buffalo left a lot on the line last week in an unsuccessful bid to upset the Patriots at home. The Bills did win their first two road games, but those were against the Jets and Giants. Tennessee is better and should shut down the Bills offense. Turnovers could be a determining factor. Marcus Mariota is the only QB in the league to start every game and not have a turnover. Allen has six interceptions and two fumbles. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +20 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Right about now, you won't find many takers willing to step up and get in front of this Ohio State juggernaut as the Buckeyes have rolled through their first five opponents. Those five opponents have been outscored 262-43. Half of the points allowed came in the first game, a 45-21 over Florida Atlantic. Nebraska was no match last week, even with the game in Lincoln, as OSU won there 48-7. But one team we're banking on "stepping up to bat" is Michigan State. The Spartans will be Ohio State's toughest test yet in what promises to be the first game the Buckeyes don't score at least 40 points. Michigan State did give up 31 last week to Indiana, but continues to have one of the best defenses in the entire country as they allow just 15 points game. A straight up win is probably out of the realm of possibility Saturday night in Columbus, but the underdog should be able to keep this game relatively tight. How often do you see Michigan State getting this many points? Not often. In the past five seasons, the Spartans have been an underdog of 20 or more points only two times. Those games were against Michigan and Ohio State in the forgettable 2016 season and both times Sparty covered, losing by only a total of nine points. They were a double digit dog once last year (at Penn State) and took the game on the field. Dantonio has won twice in Columbus before. The last two meetings haven't gone well, but we expect a focused effort from the underdog Saturday night that will lead them to covering the spread. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-05-19 | Georgia v. Tennessee +25.5 | Top | 43-14 | Loss | -107 | 125 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TENNESSEE You probably won't be seeing anyone pick Tennessee on College GameDay Saturday morning on ESPN. The Vols come into this game with Georgia as massive underdogs at Neyland Stadium and that can't come as a shock given their early season losses to Georgia State and BYU. Georgia is a top three team in the country having been to the playoff each of the past two years. But with the pointspread, there's hope for UT as Georgia is just 3-9-1 ATS the L13 years in this rivalry game. This will be among the biggest pointspreads ever for Georgia-Tennessee. While there's no defending those first two games for Tennessee, or the last one against Florida, they are certainly capable of staying within the number. Before being blown out each of the last two years by UGA, the previous five meetings were decided by a total of 23 points. Both teams are off a bye, which makes this an interesting handicap. We played against Georgia two weeks ago when they hosted Notre Dame. That was a winner for us. This game now means more to Tennessee as their season could snowball rather quickly. It's hard to wrap your head around the fact the Vols are just 3-13 ATS their previous 16 home games. But rarely are they getting a number of this magnitude. They failed to cover a similar spread last year vs. Alabama, but they're a better team now (despite the record). Coach Jeremy Pruitt is being coy with his quarterback situation, which may provide an early advantage. Bottom line is that the number is just too large here to pass up. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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10-05-19 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEBRASKA Northwestern's reputation as a dog seems to precede itself here. While the Wildcats did cover last week as road dogs, they did so thanks to a huge number at Wisconsin. The Badgers couldn't possibly match the intensity from the previous week against Michigan and that showed right from the opening kickoff. But don't forget about what happened two weeks ago when Northwestern hosted Michigan State. They were the rare instance of the public being on the dog and got waxed by Sparty 31-10. We took MSU in that one, saying that Pat Fitzgerald's ATS record as an underdog didn't hold any water with us this year. Well, that still holds true. Northwestern was very lucky to win 10 games last year. Whatever their final record in 2019 ends up being will reflect that as luck won't be so good this season. In three losses so far, the Wildcats have scored 7, 10 and 15 points. Yes, Nebraska got manhandled last Saturday night at home by Ohio State. But the Buckeyes are manhandling everybody right now. The Cornhuskers can score (31+ points in each of the first four games) and will score enough here to cover this spread with room to spare. Lay it! Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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10-05-19 | Texas v. West Virginia +11.5 | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 121 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WEST VIRGINIA West Virginia is an ugly 3-1, but their record is nevertheless 3-1. The fact that they've won ugly doesn't make them any less dangerous this week in Morgantown. Yes, they only beat James Madison by 7 despite being +3 in the turnover margin. They also needed some good fortune to win at Kansas last week. But let's not forget the only other time they've been a home dog. A highly touted NC State team came to Morgantown and got beat 44-27. Texas best be on high alert here or the same fate could be awaiting them Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns do have a perceived advantage in that they are coming off a bye week. Before the bye, they picked up a big win over Oklahoma State, 36-30 in Austin. But this is a team that often struggles to cover when its favored. Last year, they were 1-4 ATS as an away favorite. Two of those games - at Maryland and Oklahoma State - resulted in outright defeats. West Virginia is not a home dog all that often that and this will be the first season it's happened twice since 2014. Maybe that's a sign of the times in Morgantown, but don't make the mistake of laying this number when history suggests the game will be close. The Mountaineers have beaten the Longhorns three of the last four seasons, including 42-41 last year in Austin. Play on WEST VIRGINIA AAA |
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10-04-19 | New Mexico +7 v. San Jose State | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW MEXICO Truthfully, neither of these teams should have covered last week. San Jose State, getting 19.5 against Air Force, was still down 41-10 with just under four minutes to go in the game. They scored a touchdown to make it 41-17. What happened next is the kind of gift/horror that only those fully entrenched in the betting community can lay claim to experiencing. Air Force decided to go for it on 4th & 1 from their own 22! They failed to pick up the yard and San Jose State quickly responded with another TD (just 52 seconds remaining) to steal the cover. New Mexico did something similar in its game vs. Liberty, scoring a TD with just 43 seconds remaining. While they still lost 17-10, the Lobos happened to be getting 7.5 points. Who will be lucky enough to cover this week? For us, this comes down to the simple fact that San Jose State should never be bet as a favorite. The last time the Spartans were favored by more than a field goal against a FBS team was 2015! New Mexico might be bad, but they're not THAT bad. San Jose State is only 8-12 straight up its last 20 conference home games and has lost 24 of its last 29 games overall. New Mexico has covered four of the last five times it's been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the Lobos and the points here. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES One bad loss to the Buccaneers and everyone seems to have 'jumped ship' when it comes to last year's Super Bowl runner-up. But the Rams still put up over 500 total yards of offense last week and were unbeaten entering the game. They had 36 first downs. Jared Goff hasn't looked great, but he'll be facing a Seattle defense that's largely gone untested in the first quarter of the season, thanks to facing a slew of subpar quarterbacks. The look ahead line for this game had the Rams favored, so there's definitely been a swing in perception. We will look to take advantage of that. The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS at home so far as they barely beat the Bengals and lost to the Brees-less Saints. Besides beating the winless Bengals, their other wins have been against the Steelers and Cardinals. Those three teams are a combined 1-10-1 with the only win occurring because the Steelers played the Bengals Monday night. Remember Seattle was the fortunate opponent of Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. This will be the first time the Rams have been an underdog in a regular season game since 2017. They've won 16 of the last 19 road games. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +12 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SOUTH ALABAMA South Alabama is just trying to stay competitive, let alone win a game at this point. The Jaguars are 1-4 with all four losses being by double digits. The only team they beat (Jackson State) is a FCS school. But you can say the same exact thing about Thursday's opponent, Georgia Southern. The Eagles only win was against Maine and that was by just eight points. Otherwise, they are 0-3 against FBS competition. One of those losses was close. Minnesota beat them 35-32 three weeks ago, but in that game GSU gained less than 200 total yards of offense. They gained less than 100 yds of total offense in a 55-3 loss to LSU. Now those are big time schools they were facing. But at home last week, the Eagles lost 37-24 to Louisiana and that was after a bye. With these kind of paltry offensive numbers, Georgia Southern should not be laying this many points in a road game, even if it is against a team perceived to be as bad as South Alabama is right now. Our call is that the Jaguars figure it out enough to at the very least keep this one competitive. Back in the season opener, they were able to stay within 14 points of Nebraska, in Lincoln. Certainly then, they should be able to stay within double digits of a conference opponent, at home? Play SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks -5 v. Cardinals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SEATTLE The Seahawks starting 2-0 was a little surprising, but probably less so compared to last week's home loss. Seattle had to like its chances going into last week as they were facing a Saints team without Drew Brees. Unfortunately, the joke was on them as they lost 33-27 despite almost a 2 to 1 edge in total yards (515 to 265). The problem was allowing the Saints to score two non-offensive touchdowns, one on a punt return and the other a fumble return. We like the Seahawks to bounce back from that defeat as they play Arizona this week. The Cardinals haven't won, but they did tie, with the primary problem being they always fall behind in games. Last week they lost 38-20 at home to a Carolina team that didn't have Cam Newton. Kyler Murray is running for his life as he's been sacked more times (16) than all but one other quarterback. He hasn't faced a ton of blitzes but is dropping back to pass at a very high rate with 137 attempts in three games. On defense, Arizona is missing both of its starting corners. Tough to really like anything about the Cardinals right now. Seattle is 5-0-1 in its past six trips to the desert. They should win this one handily after putting up so many yards last week. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants -3 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK With the New York media tripping all over itself in an effort to fawn over rookie Daniel Jones, one might think this could be an ideal spot to fade the public sentiment and go against the Giants. Especially now, since RB Saquon Barkley is going to miss several games. With Barkley relegated to a spectator on the bench, Jones (in his 1st career start) led the Giants to an improbable come from behind 32-31 victory over the Buccaneers last week. But if there's a team (besides Miami) that the Giants deserve to be favored over in this spot, it's Washington. The Redskins are on a short week after a diastrous effort Monday night left them at 0-3. At home, they trailed the Bears 28-3 at the half and eventually lost 31-15. Washington is a complete mess right now. QB Keenum sprained his foot in the loss Monday night. He's expected to play, but backup Colt McCoy is hurt too. That could leave the Redskins own rookie, Dwayne Haskins, as the only option. But according to most, he's not ready to be a NFL starter yet. The same could be said for most players on the Redskins defense right now. They've given up at least 31 points in every game. So Jones should have another big game. Washington has won just 3 of its last 14 NFC East games. They are just 3-8 their last 11 visits to the Giants, getting outscored by 65 points in those games. They are a mess while the G-Men finally have some momentum. Not only should the Giants be favored, they'll cover. Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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09-29-19 | Patriots -6.5 v. Bills | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW ENGLAND The Patriots and Bills are both 3-0, but don't expect this early season showdown to necessarily be a playoff preview. Buffalo has beaten the Jets, Giants and Bengals so far. You definitely won't be seeing any of those teams in the postseason. Then again, the same could be said for New England's first three opponents, which includes Miami. Last week saw the Patriots play the Jets and while the final score was 30-14, it easily could have been 30-0. The New England defense has still not allowed a touchdown this year as the Jets two scores came from special teams and defense. Through three games, the Patriots have outscored teams by 89 points. The Bills have outscored opponents by just 19 points. That's why New England remains such a sizable road favorite in this spot. That and the fact they have dominated this AFC East rivalry, winning 42 of the 58 meetings since Tom Brady came onto the scene in 2001. They've also taken the last five meetings, winning all of them by at least 12 points. Josh Allen is just starting his second year as the Bills QB. He makes a lot of errors. New England has won 17 straight times when facing a first or second year starting QB. Prior to last week's win over Cincinnati, the Bills had been 0-4 SU and ATS when off two straight wins. They didn't cover against the Bengals, a winless team mind you, and almost lost the game. Again, the Patriots have allowed 17 points in three games. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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09-28-19 | Washington State v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH Both Washington State and Utah suffered crushing defeats last week. Utah's came first and was not all that out of the ordinary. It's the kind of upset we see at least once a week. While having a 27-16 edge in first downs over your opponent and still losing is disappointing, there's no shame in losing to USC at the Coliseum. In fact, it's been over 100 years since Utah last won there. One thing is for certain and that's it won't be another 100 years until they finally win at the Coliseum. What happened to Washington State late Saturday though was something you'll rarely, if ever, see again. Despite 63 points, 750 yards of total offense and NINE touchdown passes from QB Gordon, the Cougars LOST to UCLA - at home. They blew a 32-point lead in the second half in what was the third largest comeback (in terms of point margin) in NCAA history. Washington State was the first team to allow 50 points in a second half in 15 seasons. Only one team can bounce back from these two horrible defeats. We think it will be Utah and that they'll cover the spread to boot. The Utes have lost four in a row to Wazzu - by an average of 6 points/game. But this year's team is better irregardless of what we saw last Friday night in LA. And they are still the better team here even if RB Moss can't suit up. Washington State was a pointspread juggernaut last season, but has now failed to cover three straight games. Playing on the road after allowing 50 points in 19 minutes is hardly ideal. Lay it! Play on UTAH AAA |
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09-28-19 | NC State v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE It took four tries, but Florida State finally looked impressive for an entire game in 2019. They jumped on Louisville last week, racing out to a 21-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. They held on to win 35-24 and cover as a 6.5-point favorites. Of course, starting well hasn't actually been an issue this year for the Seminoles. They led Boise State 31-13 (lost 36-31), UL Monroe 21-0 (won 45-44) and Virginia 24-17 (lost 31-24). They easily could be 4-0 and the narrative surrounding the program and coach Taggart would certainly be a whole lot different, wouldn't it? We're going to call for the turnaround to continue this week, facing North Carolina State, who is a suspect 3-1 team. They've beaten East Carolina, Western Carolina and Ball State. But the only time they've ventured off campus, they were beaten 44-27 by West Virginia, a game they were actually expected to win by seven. The Wolfpack are only 1-5 ATS their last six road games and 1-7 ATS following a straight up win. The home team has won this game 9 of the past 13 times. Florida State has big-time revenge after losing 47-28 in Raleigh. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State +5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on KANSAS STATE Under normal circumstances, this would set up as a very even affair between two teams looking to move up the Big 12 pecking order. But the circumstances are not normal this week in Stillwater as Oklahoma State is off a tough loss (to Texas) and visiting Kansas State is off a bye. The latter certainly seems to be underrated right now. Kansas State has already beaten Mississippi State on the road and is 3-0 ATS. Oklahoma State not only lost in Austin last week, they also struggled (for a half) in Tulsa the week before. The underdog brings the better defense, giving up 12.7 points/game to OSU's 26.8. Also, the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points while the Cowboys are 2-7 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 with five outright losses. Kansas State is also 11-4 ATS as a single digit road underdog since 2016. Though the home team has won 13 of the previous 16 meetings, Kansas State has won the last two - as a 20-point underdog and as an eight-point underdog. It may say something that the unranked team (Oklahoma State) is favored here, but they are at home. Or it may mean the oddsmakers simply haven't caught onto the fact that Kansas State is a lot better than expected for first year coach Chris Kleiman, who built an empire at the FCS level with North Dakota State and is translating well (so far) to the FBS level. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-28-19 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -1 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 90 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI (OH) Miami of Ohio did not fare well in the non-conference portion of the schedule, winning just one of four games and that one victory came against a FCS opponent. But the three losses were to: Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State, all games where they were an underdog of at least 17 points. So really, we can't say we're all that surprised to see the RedHawks coming into Saturday with a 1-3 record. But what we are surprised about is that Buffalo beat Temple last week, 38-22, as a two-touchdown underdog. Over was our call in that game, but we certainly didn't expect the Bulls to win it on field. Then again, the week before they lost at Liberty as a 5.5-point favorite. Because most of the country saw Miami lose 76-5 to Ohio State last week, there certainly won't be a rush to bet the RedHawks this week. But we love the spot. Over its last 22 MAC games, Miami is actually 16-6 straight up AND against the spread. Buffalo has not played nearly the kind of schedule that Miami has and averaged just 15 points in two road games. Miami has gotten to play just once at home and scored 48 on Tennessee Tech. Buffalo had only 279 total yards of offense last week, but Temple turned it over four times, so that's how the Bulls won that one. One touchdown came from the defense and two more came on drives that started in the red zone. Miami will take better care of the football and win this one. Play MIAMI OH AAA |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -118 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on VA TECH While you may not yet be sold on Virginia Tech this year, don't be surprised if Friday in Blacksburg proves to be the Hokies "coming out party." They turned it over five times in their only loss, which was on the road. But they have won 15 of the last 21 games at Lane Stadium. With 10 starters back from last year, the defense should be solid in Bud Foster's final season as coordinator. This team won 19 games in Justin Fuente's first two years. They dropped to six wins in 2018, but that included one over a Duke team that had a future NFL starting quarterback in Daniel Jones. The game was in Durham and not close as VT won 31-14 as a three-point dog. The Blue Devils aren't as good this year despite easily defeating their last two opponents. (They lost 42-3 to Alabama in the opener). Virginia Tech has won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall including three straight. The last two wins have been by a combined 38 points. The Hokies have covered their last five Friday night games. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA The Eagles are 1-2, not to mention a banged up football team right now. Down both starting receivers last week, they lost at home to the Lions 27-24. But as you can see from that score, offense wasn't really the problem. Even with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery out, the Eagles had more first downs than the Lions did and outgained them on the day. The problems were special teams and turnovers. Detroit returned a kickoff for a TD early in the game and would not have won without it. Philly also fumbled twice and both times it led to a Lions field goal. Then there was the Eagles failure to take advantage of a Lions special teams miscue. Late in the game, they blocked a Matt Prater field goal attempt. Despite starting at midfield, Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense could not move the ball into scoring position, instead turning it over on downs. Jeffery is expected back this week as is TE Dallas Goebert, who was limited to just nine snaps against the Lions. Green Bay is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread, but a little lucky to be in this position considering they have been outgained in every game. Key for them is being +6 in turnovers as the defense has been much better than expected. But we don't see the Pack covering for a third straight time as home favorites. As an underdog, the Eagles are 9-4 ATS the last two seasons with eight outright victories. We'll take the points. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS Memphis quickly established itself as the potential "Group of 5" team to get a New Year's Day Bowl slot when they beat Ole Miss in Week 1. The Tigers are now 3-0 and surprisingly it's been the defensive side of the ball that's been more impressive. Sure, the offense scored a combined 97 points against Southern and South Alabama the last two games. But the defense has given up only 40 points all year, thereby reducing the total PPG scored in Memphis' games to just under 51, which is down from 75 a year ago. This Thursday they welcome in Navy for a key AAC West showdown. Navy has played only two games, both against lesser competition (Holy Cross, East Carolina). As you would expect, the Midshipmen didn't struggle to win either game. They beat Holy Cross by 38 and ECU by 32. After a down year last season (finished 3-10 SU!), Navy is back to running the ball effectively as they're averaging 371 yards/game on the ground. But we look for them to get slowed down here by this vastly improved Memphis defense. This group held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to 10 points and 173 yards. The most yards gained by any Memphis opponent so far is 258 and that was, surprisingly, Southern. But even there, the Tigers defense performed better than you think. Southern gained 58 yards on its first two snaps, than only 200 the rest of the game on 3.6 yards per play. Southern also scored a defensive TD in that game. While conference play will ultimately determine if this Memphis' D is the "real deal" or not, we think it is and the Tigers closed last year by covering six of their last seven games against American opposition. They are simply the much better team here. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON The Redskins will look to reverse the franchise's "curse" on Monday Night Football. Of all the things that have plagued this franchise in recent years, an 0-6 SU/ATS mark in the NFL's marquee primetime game is definitely one of them. This year, the team comes into its MNF appearance at 0-2 with a couple of division losses to Philadelphia and Dallas and in desperate need of a spark. Getting points against a Chicago team that struggles to score may be just what they need. The Bears are lucky not to be 0-2 themselves as they got a last second 50+ yard field goal to beat Denver 16-14 last week. That was after losing the season opener 10-3 to the rival Packers. After going 12-5 ATS last season (including playoff loss), the Bears are 0-2 ATS to start 2019. They were favored in both games. A second straight game as a road favorite seems dicey for a team with a struggling quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky has been very bad so far this year, ranking 32nd in both yards per pass attempt and passer rating. He's completing only 58.3% of his passes. As we saw in multiple games yesterday, 0-2 teams often show up in these situations and are good bets when taking points. Not sure if it means anything, but the Redskins have beaten the Bears seven straight times dating back to the 2003 season. They are 13-2 SU head to head since 1989. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +4 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND Doesn't seem like there's many takers on the Browns this week, but they look like the right side to us Sunday night. Take away one bad quarter against the Titans and this defense has played really well so far. While it's certainly a big step up facing Jared Goff and the Rams, they'll have a fired up crowd rooting them on as this is the first Sunday night game in Cleveland in 11 years. The Rams had a close win (3 points) over Carolina in Week 1, then knocked Drew Brees out last week, turning a game with the Saints into an noncompetitive affair. Believe it or not, the Browns offense is actually averaging more yards per play (6.3) than the Rams are (5.7) through two games. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS as a home dog since last year began. After being such a popular team with the public to start the year, the Browns don't seem to have much support this week. But we think that's the perfect time to take them as we can smell a potential upset in this one. Grab the points. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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09-22-19 | Giants v. Bucs -6.5 | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -109 | 122 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY Obviously, the big story here is the Giants moving on from Eli Manning and going with rookie Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback. Does it even matter though? The Giants are a bad team that has beaten by double digits in both games. Also, have we forgotten just how divisive of a draft choice Jones was? Many respected minds thought he was a HUGE reach at #6 overall. Two good preseason performances aren't enough to sway us. Something else not helping the Giants case here is that Tampa Bay is on extra rest. The Buccaneers picked up their first win of the season last Thursday by going to Carolina and upsetting the Panthers. Unlike the Giants, the Bucs defense seems a lot better this year. Credit goes to new coordinator Todd Bowles. Tampa is allowing 1.5 yards less per play compared to last year. They've also given up only 31 points in two games. The Giants have scored just 31 points in two games. New York has also lost 13 of 17 road games and is just 1-8 SU in the month of September (2-7 ATS). This is the 6th time in 7 seasons they've started 0-2. Jones alone isn't enough to save this Giants team, if he is even capable of saving anything. One could argue that the Giants may not even be salvageable. Lay the points. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KANSAS CITY We used both of these teams in Week 1. The Ravens crushed the Dolphins 59-10. The Chiefs had no problem beating the Jaguars 40-26. Both are now 2-0. This will be hyped as an early season showdown in the AFC with the winner probably deemed as the conference's top challenger to the Patriots. But there is a reason to still be a little skeptical of Baltimore. They have played two poor teams to get to 2-0. Obviously, Miami is the worst team in the league. Arizona, who they barely beat last week, isn't far ahead and has a rookie QB. Had the Cardinals not settled for three field goals inside the Ravens' five-yard line last week, they easily could have pulled the upset. The Chiefs two victims, Jacksonville and Oakland, aren't exactly great either. But we know the Chiefs can beat the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. They did it last year. Now that took overtime, but they did win. We expect a larger margin of victory this year. Strangely, the Chiefs scored all four touchdowns last week in the second quarter. They scored 68 points in the first six quarters of the year before shockingly hanging a "goose egg" in the second half vs. the Raiders. But one positive was the defensive pitching a shutout in the final three quarters. They held the Raiders to 5.2 yards per pass attempt The Chiefs are on a 9-0 ATS run in September and 16-5-1 ATS in Week 3. This is their home opener. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame +15 v. Georgia | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is taking on a top five opponent (Georgia) here and we know what happens when that's the case. The Fighting Irish, more often than not, fold like a cheap tent in this situation as they are 4-13 ATS. The last 19 times the Irish faced a top five foe that is outscoring its opponents by at least 20.6 points/game, they've lost 18 of those games. All but four of those 18 losses have been by double digits. Ten of them have come by at least 20 points. Four of the losses have come during the Brian Kelly regime and three were by two touchdowns or more. We all remember that CFP semifinal game last January against Clemson right? The Irish lost that 30-3. So the Irish might as well not even leave South Bend right? Wrong! Because of that poor reputation in these kind of games, this number is inflated this week. Notre Dame catching two touchdowns, even on the road, is a bargain as this spread should be no higher than 10 points in our estimation. Georgia will likely come in overconfident and struggle early. The Dawgs have yet to be tested this year and say what you will about Notre Dame, they're a whole heck of a lot better than Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. The Irish have only played twice, so they're the fresher of the two teams. Two years ago, they lost by only a point in South Bend to UGA. It'll be another close one Saturday night. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-21-19 | Nebraska v. Illinois +13.5 | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ILLINOIS Saturday night finds Illinois looking to do what Big 10 rival Nebraska did only a week ago. That being bounce back from an outright loss as a favorite. Two weeks ago, Nebraska suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of Colorado, 34-31 as a four-point favorite. The Cornhuskers came into 2019 with a ton of hype and that loss shattered it a bit as they blew a 17-point lead and lost in overtime. They did bounce back last week by trouncing Northern Illinois 44-8. They'll stay in the Land of Lincoln this week, moving from DeKalb to Champaign and open up conference play. Illinois lost last week to Eastern Michigan, 34-31 (sound familiar?) as a seven-point favorite here at home. The good news here is they don't have to win like Nebraska did last week. The Illini only need to cover and the oddsmakers have obliged with a generous spread that we've seen the public already bet up. This number shows us that the hype train is still moving a bit too fast with Nebraska. Can't say we're huge fans of what Lovie Smith has done here at Illinois, who has not been to a bowl since 2014. Smith has had a young team each of his first three seasons here, but this is easily his most experienced - and best - group yet. They should be highly motivated following last week's loss while Nebraska could be prone for another letdown. By the way, Scott Frost is 0-6 in road games as the 'Huskers coach. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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09-21-19 | Oregon v. Stanford +10.5 | Top | 21-6 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on STANFORD Already with two losses, Stanford would seem to have its back against the wall here vs. Oregon, a game in which few, if any, will expect the Cardinal to win. The defenses in Palo Alto have usually been very solid under David Shaw, but the last two games have seen them shredded for 90 points as they've given up 45 to both USC and UCF. Now Oregon comes to town. Despite what many perceive as being a mismatch, Stanford has always given the Ducks fits and we expect that to be the case again this year. They are 5-2 the previous seven matchups and 0-3 the last three. While that run involves teams a lot more talented than this one, the same can be said for the Oregon side as well. Winning by double digits on the conference road is difficult. After two straight blowouts over Nevada and Montana, it's easy to see the Ducks coming into this one too overconfident. As for that Cardinals defense, they allowed just seven points in the lone home game, which was a win over Northwestern. After taking on two talented teams the past two weeks, the Cardinal will be more battle tested and prepared to give Oregon another fight to the end. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-21-19 | Michigan State -8.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MICHIGAN STATE This is a rare situation where everyone is piling on the underdog. That's because, admittedly, Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald has been excellent in the role. His Wildcats teams have gone 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 times they've gotten points and won 10 of the game straight up. Last year alone, they were an amazing 7-1-1 ATS getting points and won six of the games straight up. One of those upsets came against Michigan State, 29-19 (+11). Yet despite all of what you just read, a curious thing has happened here and that's the line has moved up (by several points) even though the majority of bets have come in on the Wildcats. We trust Mark Dantonio, off a loss last week to Arizona State, to get the job done here in this revenge spot. His Spartans actually have triple revenge here as they've been upset by Northwestern each of the last three seasons. Northwestern can't do it again, can they? This Wildcats team is nowhere near as strong as the one that pulled the upset last year in East Lansing. This Michigan State team is also much stronger than the one that lost its last trip into Evanston two years ago. Sparty's defense should rule the day in this one as they've given up just 34 points in three games. Northwestern was off a bye last week when it beat UNLV 30-14. In the first game, they could score only 7 points in a loss at Stanford, which now looks even worse. The road team is 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS the last 16 meetings. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -7.5 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOISE STATE Boise State is back in the top 20 of the polls, but doesn't feel like its getting the respect it deserves here vs. Air Force. This is a home game, remember. The Broncos are 59-7 SU their L66 games on the blue turf. Maybe the win over Florida State that opened the season isn't as impressive now, considering how bleak things look down in Tallahassee. But you can bet Boise won't be taking Air Force lightly. While they've beaten the Flyboys each of the last two seasons, before that they'd actually lost three straight times to them. One of those was among the seven home losses that have occurred on this field in the past decade. This is going to be a tough spot for Air Force as they played an overtime game last week in Colorado, which saw them upset the favored Buffaloes. Boise State, meanwhile, had a virtual layup against Portland State. Air Force is obviously going to look to run the ball in this game, but so far the Boise State run defense has been very good. We like what we've seen from true freshman QB Hank Bachmeier as well. He's thrown 13 touchdown passes in three games while averaging 343 yards per game through the air. Rough spot on a short week for the underdog here and they are just 7-18-1 ATS their last 26 Mountain West games. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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09-16-19 | Browns -6 v. Jets | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND After a disastrous Week 1 performance, Cleveland has caught a major break here with Jets quarterback Sam Darnold being out due to mono. In his place, the Jets turn to Trevor Siemian, who was last seen guiding an anemic offense in Denver last season. It's not that Darnold is any kind of All-Pro, it's just that we think Siemian is that bad. But perhaps more concerning are the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Jets as LB CJ Mosley and DL Quennin Williams are both going to miss tonight's game. While it's true the Jets blew a 16-0 lead to the Bills last week, they were actually quite fortunate to even be in that position as Bills quarterback Josh Allen accounted for four first half turnovers. The Browns got a ton of offseason hype and know that another loss could mean the wheels will start coming off for rookie coach Freddie Kitchens. While the Jets may not have been as "unlucky" as you think they were last week, the Browns weren't as outclassed by the Titans as you might think in a 43-13 loss. It was still a two-point game very late in the third quarter. If they are able to cut down on their own mistakes (namely penalties!), we've seen how little a Darnold-led Jets offense can do. Now just imagine how poor they'll be with Siemian taking snaps. The Browns beat the Jets last year, thanks to Baker Mayfield coming in and leading a comeback. With him now fully embedded as the starter, look for a fast start by the Browns Monday night. Play CLEVELAND AAA |
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09-15-19 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on JACKSONVILLE With a game that has such a low total, this sure is a lot of points for the Texans to be laying. Sure, disaster struck Jacksonville with quarterback Nick Foles going down with a collarbone injury in Week 1. Foles, the team's key free agent signing in the offseason, was supposed to help transform an offense that wasn't very good in 2018. Now it's rookie Gardner Minshew (Wash St) calling the shots. Still, it's a lot points. Houston is on working on a short week as they played Monday night in New Orleans. They lost that game in heartbreaking fashion after Saints QB Drew Brees drove his team down for the winning field goal. That came right after DeShaun Watson drove the Texans down the field for a temporary lead. Given the situation, this is too many points to lay with Houston. What if Minshew turns out not to be a liability? Against Kansas City, he actually completed 22 of his 25 pass attempts for 275 yards. That was in an emergency situation. The road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS run in this AFC rivalry, so we'll take the points. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +19.5 | Top | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI It's only Week 2, but Miami already finds itself in a position where they are taking 18.5 points at home. If that seems preposterous, then you obviously missed last week's performance where they were clobbered 59-10 by Baltimore - at home. Getting matched up here with the Patriots, who looked as good as ever in wiping the mat with Pittsburgh last week (33-3 win), and it's no wonder Miami is one of the biggest single game underdogs we've seen in recent years. But they still are a professional team and this is way too many points NOT to take in the NFL. It was a few years ago that Jacksonville was getting even more points on the road against Peyton Manning and Denver. They easily covered the spread. Then there's this tidbit. New England has actually LOST five of the last six games in Miami (straight up) including each of the last two years. This is the biggest home dog we've seen since 2007 ... when New England failed to cover at Baltimore. The only larger September spread - of any kind - in NFL history was 1968 and the Jets (-20) actually the lost the game on the field to the Bills. You have to take the points in this situation. It's very hard to win on the road in this league, let alone by 20 points. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma v. UCLA +24 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCLA The vultures are circling Chip Kelly right now as UCLA is 0-2 and the school is reportedly having to give tickets away for this home game, even though it's nationally televised and against Oklahoma. Now the matchup all but guarantees the Bruins will be 0-3. But while their fans may have given up on them, we will not. This is a lot of points, at home, for a team that many thought would be 2-0. Oklahoma might be a top five team, but they have a suspect defense that has really yet to be tested. In this situation, Kelly has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Expect him to go deep into his bag of tricks. The Sooners might have won the last seven games where they were road favorites. But they are also just 1-5-1 against the spread in those seven games. Before last week's loss to San Diego State, UCLA could usually be counted on for a solid performance in the Rose Bowl. This is an experienced team that Kelly brought back with more of his recruits. It's been incredible to see UCLA getting so many points when they were "only" getting 29 last year in Norman. They covered in that loss by a single point. Here they are at home, desperate, and should play better than we've seen the last two weeks, even though they are facing a superior side. Last year, the Bruins were getting 3 touchdowns at home against Top 10 Washington and only lost by seven points. Maybe its not that close here, but UCLA will stay within the number. Play on UCLA AAA |
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09-14-19 | San Diego State v. New Mexico State +16 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW MEXICO STATE A week after a completely unimpressive 6-0 win over Weber State, San Diego State went to the Rose Bowl and upset UCLA 23-14 as 7.5-point underdogs. Explain that. It's tough to, though UCLA repeatedly shot itself in the foot. This week, the Aztecs will be the favorite, on the road. That's tricky for a team that scores so few points. It's a big number too. In its last 15 games, San Diego State has scored more than 24 points just four times and never more than 31. A big home game vs. Utah State next week promises to divert the Aztecs attention from this week's opponent. New Mexico State may not bring in a stellar resume, but after playing Washington State and Alabama to start its season, they definitely won't be intimidated. This is the home opener as well. The Aggies are a respectable 5-5 SU in Las Cruces the last two years. Even after last week's win, San Diego State is still just 4-8 its last 12 non-conference road games and that's straight up! Being -6 in turnovers vs. Alabama and Washington State did New Mexico State no favors. Let's assume they clean that up a bit and it's easy to see them being more competitive this week. Play on NEW MEXICO STATE AAA |
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09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy -7 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 72 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NAVY Navy had an uncharacteristic season last year. They went 3-10, its worst record since 2002. You have to think the Midshipmen are shoo-ins to improve in 2019 and they've already gotten the season off to a positive start with a 45-7 win over Holy Cross. In that game, they ran for 428 yards. But perhaps more promising with them throwing for 103 yards. That's nothing for most teams. But Navy, who has run the triple option for years, was last in the country at 72.8 passs yards/game last year. They've promised to add elements of a run-and-shoot offense this year. Ken Niumatalolo totally retooled his coaching staff this year. Having a bye last week is another nice early season edge. East Carolina is a program in transition with a first year coach in Mike Houston. The Pirates also won three games last year, just like Navy, but there's no real history here of winning, at least recently. They've won just three games each of the last three years. They've gone 1-16 SU on the road, so this line being so short is a definite surprise. ECU has covered just 6 of the last 22 times it has been an underdog. They were beaten 34-6 at NC State in the opener. A 48-9 win last week over Gardner-Webb means little in the grand scheme. They've lost by an average of 24.5 points/game the last two times they played Navy. Play on NAVY AAA |
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09-14-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana +17 | Top | 51-10 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on INDIANA So much for Urban Meyer. Ryan Day has Ohio State rolling at 2-0 with wins over Florida Atlantic (45-21) and Cincinnati (42-0). The Buckeyes defense obviously played better than the second game and QB Justin Fields, a transfer from Georgia, has looked great. But consider the talent gap between the Buckeyes and those first two opponents. Now OSU opens Big 10 play. Sure, it's against Indiana, but it's also on the road. The Hoosiers were actually more competitive in last year's game at Ohio Stadium than the final score shows. They did cover as 26-point dogs (final score was 49-26), but it was only an eight-point game at half and IU led in the second quarter. The Hoosiers are also off a shutout, 52-0 over Eastern Illinois, and beat Ball State 34-24 in the opener. So their offense is humming too. Last week was Indiana's biggest margin of victory in 25 years. After missing out on a bowl the last two years, you know this team is going to be motivated. They've come close to pulling a major upset in Big 10 play the last few years, but never finished the job. They have lost 10 times by seven points or less the four years in Big 10 play. Every year, at least one of those losses was to a Top 20 team. We're taking the points, especially with new starting quarterback Michael Penix, a freshman, looking so good. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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09-13-19 | Kansas +21.5 v. Boston College | Top | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS Les Miles knew it would be a tall mountain to climb when he took on the job at Kansas. After all, this is a program that had suffered through a miserable 6-42 record the previous four years under David Beatty. Through two games, Miles is 1-1 in Lawrence. The Jayhawks first game saw them rally (after blowing a double-digit lead) to beat an FCS opponent, Indiana State. Last week, they were competitive, but ultimately lost 12-7 to Coastal Carolina. Interestingly, KU scored on its opening drive, but never again. While there's obviously still a ton of room for growth here, no longer look for the Jayhawks to be the pushover they once were. Miles will have them playing hard. That's what makes this week's line at BC so interesting. The Eagles have scored more than anticipated the first two games. They hung 35 on Va Tech in a bit of an upset, then 45 more on Richmond last week. But the defense hasn't been as sound as it usually is. They allowed 442 yards vs. Va Tech, but got the benefit of five Hokies turnovers. Last week, even Richmond was able to attain 364 total yards. Yes, BC will be able to run the ball with the best of 'em. But so can Kansas with Pooka Williams Jr (99 yards last week) now back from suspension. With that BC defense, it's worth mentioning they have only three returning starters from last year. The Eagles have not been favored by more than three touchdown over a FBS team in the last five years. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW ORLEANS The Saints laying less than a touchdown at home, in primetime? We'll take it! As you'll likely hear from many places, New Orleans has excelled in that very situation through the years. They almost never lose in primetime here at the Superdome and no matter what the line is they almost always cover. In fact, they are 24-11 in all primetime games since 2006, 22-8 when you exclude Thursday nights. Now you'll also hear about how the Saints are just 1-9 SU/ATS the first two weeks of the season the last five years, including 0-5 SU/ATS in season openers. They did lose outright as a big favorite last year to Tampa Bay, here at home. But look for that streak to get snapped in a major way Monday night. The Texans are just 4-10 ATS all-time on Monday Night Football. Having just traded Jadeveon Clowney, there are questions with this Houston defense. Drew Brees isn't about to let them figure it out either. Brees even got a new target this year in TE Jared Cook, who is coming off a career year in Oakland. Expect the Saints to be highly motivated for this game after the way last season ended. Houston isn't exactly known for starting the season well. They opened 0-3 last year. Winning in this building is hard and we just don't see the Texans being able to do it. They are just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 road games while the home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times these teams have met. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the Steelers (FIRST HALF) Think the Steelers miss Antonio Brown at this point? Ha! Lost in last year's disappointing season was the fact the Black and Gold earned a rare win over the Patriots. They beat them 17-10 at home in Week 15. The win snapped a five-game losing streak to the Patriots. Having rid themselves of Brown's antics, the Steelers should be a more focused and better team this year. We look for them to cover the first half line here. Pittsburgh is the last time to beat New England. More worrisome then Ben Roethlisberger losing Brown is Tom Brady losing Rob Gronkowski. New England's offense just wasn't as productive the last couple years when Gronk was out. On defense, the Steelers may finally have found a replacement for Ryan Shazier by drafting Devin Bush. By the way, they were a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs last season, winning four of the games straight up. Among the areas Pittsburgh will be improved in is turnover margin. They were -11 last year. Teams with a bad turnover margin usually see that number improve the following season. Expect the Steelers defense to be better this year and the Patriots defense to be worse. We expect the Steelers to be ahead at halftime, or at least covering. Play PITTSBURGH 1st Half AAA |
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09-08-19 | Ravens -6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 59-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BALTIMORE Probably the easiest call on the first Sunday of the NFL season would be taking the Ravens to beat the Dolphins. Now there's a pointspread in play here obviously and that number has come up (by several points) since it opener. But Miami is going to be so bad that this year that the line move hardly scares us. Remember what happened in Week 1 last year? Baltimore was facing a Buffalo team that - at the time - many thought could be the worst in the league. The Ravens won that game 47-3! Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for the Dolphins, which doesn't sound very promising. This team is clearly tanking this year, which is why it recently traded away Laremy Tunsil, Kiko Alonso and Kenny Stills despite not having adequate replacements. If all goes according to plan in Miami, they will end up with the first pick in the Draft next April. If all goes according to plan in Baltimore, they will be back in the playoffs. Lamar Jackson took over at QB in the middle of last season and that's when the Ravens went on their run. Jackson should have a big game here - both running and throwing - against a Miami defense that will struggle to stop anybody this year. Baltimore is on an 8-3 SU/ATS run in Week 1 games where it has allowed an average of just 14.9 points. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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09-07-19 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -6 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OLE MISS Ole Miss takes on Arkansas here in the SEC opener for the both teams. The way each team chose to open its season was very different. Ole Miss went on the road to play a Memphis team that may be as good as any in the Group of Five. They lost, 15-10, but looked a lot better in the second half. Arkansas, fresh off a 2-10 year, opened against Portland State and only won 20-13. So despite winning, the Razorbacks were probably the less impressive side in Week 1. That's certainly affected our read on this Week 2 matchup, which takes place in Oxford and that's not a good deal for the Hogs. They have lost their last eight SEC openers by an average of three touchdowns. They didn't win a single time on the road last year and lost to Ole Miss 37-33 at home. They've lost eight of their last nine road games as well. Despite only gaining 173 yards of offense last week, the Rebels need not hang their heads as the defense pitched a shutout in the second half. The offense got the ball back down 13-10, but got hit with a safety and never saw the ball again. Don't expect them to take Arkansas lightly here. Before last year, the Rebels had lost four straight times to the Hogs and they've lost the last three times to them at home. Not this year. We believe in the new coordinators in Oxford (Rich Rodriguez, Mike MacIntyre) and they'll get their first win this week. Play on OLE MISS AAA |
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09-07-19 | Southern Miss v. Mississippi State -16.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MISSISSIPPI STATE Mississippi State is expected to take a step back this season. They lost a lot of talent (to the NFL) from a defense that allowed just 13.2 points/game a year ago. It doesn't help that they have two holdovers currently suspended as well. Last week, they gave up 28 points to a Louisiana Lafayette team that quite frankly isn't very good. 28 points was the most allowed in any game by MSU last year. They allowed more than 20 just two times. But on the bright side, the defense forced five turnovers last week, the offense scored 38 points and the team won. We look for the defense to play a lot better this week against Southern Miss. Something to consider is that last week's game was played in New Orleans. Mississippi State is 11-3 ATS its last 14 games in Starkville. Southern Miss played a tune-up game against Alcorn State, but that will hardly have them ready for this step up in class. The Golden Eagles only could run for 96 yards on 31 carries and thus actually lost the time of possession battle. If they can't push around an FCS opponent, how are they going to get a surge against a SEC defense? The answer is "they won't." Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE AAA |
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09-07-19 | Ohio v. Pittsburgh -4 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITT Ohio might not be a program you pay much attention to, but the Bobcats have achieved plenty of success in the 15 years Frank Solich has been here in Athens. Solich is actually the third longest tenured head coach in College Football, trailing only Gary Patterson (19 years) at TCU and Kirk Ferentz (21 years). The Bobcats have actually gotten some run as the team to come out of the Group of Five this year, but this week's game is one of two where they'll definitely be the underdog (the other is next week's game at Marshall). The key to this team is QB Nathan Rourke. The offense averaged 40 points/game with him at the helm last year. But only three other starters from that offense are back. Despite losing 30-14 to Virginia last week, Pitt is going to be an improved team this year. The Panthers led that game at halftime, only to get shutout in the 2nd half. It was a sloppy effort, one that saw them turn the ball over twice, get a punt blocked and not protect the QB well. We look for Pat Narduzzi's team to clean things up a bit as they can't afford to start the year with consecutive losses at home as there's game at Penn State looming next weekend. Ohio won't be able to pressure Pitt QB Pickett as much as Virginia did and thus it'll be a lot better day for the Panthers offense. Play on PITT AAA |
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09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice +19.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on RICE Wake Forest came into the year with some hype and made good on it to some degree by winning its season opener 38-35 over Utah State. The spread closed at -4.5, so the Demon Deacons ended up not covering the number and now they find themselves in even rarer territory. It's three scores that they are laying to the Rice Owls Friday night, on the road. Wake Forest has only been a road favorite three times for current coach Dave Clawson, who is in his sixth-year at Winston-Salem. Their ATS record in those games is 0-3. This will be the first time they are laying double digits on the road since the 2008 season opener against Baylor, who went into that game with a first year starter named Robert Griffin III. So it's been awhile. Rice obviously isn't very good, but they held their own last week against Army, losing only 14-7 as a 23-point underdog. They did give up 231 yards rushing, but that came on 56 carries. Wake Forest ran for 178 yards last week, on 58 carries, or just 3.1 yards per attempt. That's not very good. If Rice was able to defend Army's triple option, then they should stymie Wake Forest's ground game too and stay well within the number. Play on RICE AAA |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville +18.5 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOUISVILLE Notre Dame is laying a lot of points in this season opener, but based on how they and Louisville performed in 2018, that's no surprise. The Fighting Irish finished 12-1, the only defeat coming at the hands of Clemson in the CFP. Louisville won just two games (lost 10!) with one of those coming against a FCS program. The other was by three over Western Kentucky, a game that they were favored to win by 17 points. Nine straight losses to end the season means there's a new coach on campus as Scott Satterfield comes over from Appalachian State. Perhaps the biggest indictment on Louisville's 2018 season is that they finished 1-11 ATS, the worst such mark in the country. They'll obviously be better in 2019 as Sattefield has a lot of returning talent to work with, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but also at quarterback. Meanwhile, you should look for Notre Dame to slip a bit this year. They had a really lucky record in close games last year, going 7-0 in those decided by eight points or less. While we would be shocked if Louisville won this game, it is a hefty number the Cardinals are getting due mainly to last year's poor effort. But it's a new coach, a new season and we expect them to perform a lot better at the betting window. The Irish were never asked to lay more than 11 points away from South Bend last year. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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08-31-19 | Oregon v. Auburn -3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on AUBURN The lone battle of ranked teams this weekend pits #11 Oregon against #16 Auburn in Arlington, Texas. Typically, these Pac 12 vs. SEC matchups have not gone well for the former conference and that's a trend we expect to continue Saturday night. Auburn seems like it's being slightly underrated coming into the year. It was just the opposite last year and they still opened by beating Washington in the first game. Washington was regarded as being the Pac 12's best last year and now that distinction probably falls on Oregon. But we're not convinced the Ducks are the 11th best team in the country, despite QB Justin Herbert and almost the rest of the offense returning. Consider this: Oregon has lost 13 of its last 18 games away from Autzen Stadium. Auburn is probably being underrated because of its five losses last year, but three of those were upsets and the other two against Georgia and Alabama. The season ended on a high note with a 63-14 demolition of Purdue in the bowl game. The Tigers have won six straight neutral site games vs. the Pac 12 including the 2010 National Championship vs. Oregon. Not as much on the line this time, but it'll be the same result with the SEC reigning surpreme. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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08-31-19 | Virginia Tech -4 v. Boston College | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA TECH The ACC didn't waste anytime getting the conference play going as this is one of three games on the slate this weekend. The conference is considered to be "Clemson and everyone else" this year and we saw that Thursday with the Tigers thumping Georgia Tech as expected. But Saturday's two games are expected to be a lot closer. This one, we think might not end up being so close. Virginia Tech is a team that should be better in 2019 after slipping to 6-7 last year. Boston College, not so much, even though they return both QB Brown and RB Dillon. The key to us in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. For his 23rd and final season as the defensive coordinator in Blacksburg, Bud Foster has 10 starters back from last year. After allowing 31 points/game last year, the Hokies defense should get back to business in 2019. On the flip side, Boston College has just three defensive starters back. This is a revenge game for VT as they lost 31-21 last year to the Eagles. Boston College scored 28 unanswered points to end the game. ACC road openers have gone well for the Hokies as they've won 13 of their past 15 as well as three consecutive season openers. The road team is actually on a 4-1 run in this rivalry. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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08-30-19 | Oklahoma State v. Oregon State +16 | Top | 52-36 | Push | 0 | 657 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OREGON STATE Oregon State isn't exactly well-regarded, so the fact they are taking more than two touchdowns from Oklahoma State can't be too surprising. But this could be the year the Beavers at least make some sort of "mini-leap" forward after winning a total of just three games the previous two seasons. This is the second season for coach Smith in Corvallis. The Beavers are one of the 10 most experienced teams in the country coming into 2019. Not that we think Oregon State wins here, but OK State probably isn't as good as they're being made out to be. The Cowboys slipped to seven wins in 2018 as they were upset five different times. Laying this many to a Power 5 opponent from a different conference seems tricky. In fact, the last time OK State traveled to face a Pac 12 team was 2012 and they lost 59-38 at Arizona. Again, there are probably going to be a lot of points scored in this game. OK State's defensive line is a concern, so that's something the Beaver offense should take full advantage of. The Cowboys offense has no experience at QB with a freshman (Spencer Sanders) likely starting, on the road no less. Jake Luton is back in his second year starting for Oregon State. This game will end up being close. Play on OREGON STATE AAA |
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08-29-19 | UCLA +3.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -115 | 629 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on UCLA You may be surprised by how short this line is, not to mention the way it has been bet, but don't be. Yes, UCLA won just three games in year one under Chip Kelly. But Kelly can take solace in the job his colleague Luke Fickell did last year with Cincinnati, taking them from 4 to 11 wins. No one saw that coming from the Bearcats and while they look good on paper entering 2019, UCLA has the most returning starters in the country (19) and should be a whole lot better in Kelly's 2nd year. The Bruins have had problems winning away from the Rose Bowl in recent season, but look for that to change this year. Something to keep in mind is that these teams opened last season against one another as well. Cincinnati won 26-17, as a 14-point underdog. A couple key differences here for UCLA is that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the starting QB (wasn't the case last year) and the emergence of RB Joshua Kelley. Look for the Bruins to put up a lot more points in this year's meeting. Similarly, their defense is better than it was a year ago now that 10 starters are back. Cincinnati's offensive line is down two starters from last season. The Bearcats have failed to cover six of the last seven times they've been a home favorite of three points or less. Play on UCLA AAA |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -115 | 285 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the RAMS I like the Rams in this year's Super Bowl. I understand that the Patriots bring both experience and "name value," but neither of those qualities necessarily ensure that they will be the better team come Sunday. Having won with each team in their respective Conference Championship Games, I'm obviously impressed with both sides. In fact, I also won with both in their Divisional Round contests. But you can only pick one and the fact the Rams overcame an early deficit in the Superdome to win impressed me more than what the Patriots did at Kansas City. Also, note that being an underdog is foreign to both teams. Neither had been one in any game this year before two weeks ago. Under Sean McVay, Los Angeles has been a dog just six times. Factoring out Week 17 of last season (rested starters), they are 4-1 ATS, winning outright four times. Experience certainly didn't matter in last year's Super Bowl when the Eagles downed the Patriots. All eight of the Super Bowls New England has been in with Brady and Belichick have ultimately been decided by one possession. Only two (the last two years) have been decided by a margin larger than four points and one of those two was the OT game vs. Atlanta. So taking points, no matter how few, seems like the right call. Play LA RAMS AAA |
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01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the PATRIOTS It's somewhat ironic that both underdogs this week (New England, Los Angeles) have not been an underdog in any other game this season. With the Patriots, they haven't been a dog since Week 1 of the 2016 season when they played at Arizona and Tom Brady was suspended. They still won that game, mind you. The last time Brady was an underdog was Week 14 of the 2014 season and the Patriots lost to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, 26-21. But that's the only time in the last five tries New England hasn't covered as an underdog. They haven't been an underdog in the playoffs since the 2014 AFC Championship at Denver. This week will be just the 7th time in 39 playoff games with Brady & Belichick that the Patriots are underdogs. They have a far better playoff resume that Andy Reid and Kansas City and I think that matters. The Patriots also already own a win over the Chiefs this year, 43-40 in Foxboro. While they did need a last second Stephen Gostkowski field goal to win, New England led for all but all seven minutes of actual game time. They also rolled up 500 yards on the Chiefs defense. Last week, you saw how dominant Brady can be when he's doubted. The Patriots scored 35 points in the first half. They'll be motivated again here. Play on NEW ENGLAND. AAA |
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01-20-19 | Rams +3.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on the RAMS. There's a lot of attention this week on the fact that the PATRIOTS are an underdog for the first time since the 1st week of the 2016 season. But the RAMS are the only other team besides the Patriots to have been favored in every game this year. That includes when they played here at the Superdome back in Week 9. Of course, they lost that game. It was their first loss all season (started 8-0) and while the final score ended up being 45-35 Saints, it was really never close as the Rams trailed virtually the whole game and were down 35-17 in the first half. Like New England, LA is now a dog for the 1st time all year when playing for its Conference Championship. I think the fact the line has moved so much for this rematch is significant when handicapping this game. The Rams actually closed at -2.5 for the regular season matchup. Are things really that different now? I understand that the Saints won easily the first time around and have never lost a home playoff game with Drew Brees as the starting QB. But, if anything is different this time around, it's that the Saints aren't looking as strong as they did just a few weeks ago. They trailed the Eagles last week, 14-0, before scoring 20 unanswered. But those 20 points did not come easy. Since they last faced the Rams, the vaunted New Orleans offense has been held to 20 points or less in four of seven games. I like the points here. Play on LA RAMS. AAA |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -8 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Saints. So I expected this line to come down a bit as the Eagles' playoff record with Nick Foles as the quarterback is well known. But it really hasn't and upon second thought, I have no hesitation in laying the points with the Saints at home. Foles' reputation may work against his team, which lost 48-7 on this field in the regular season. It's a different Eagles team now, but are they really four touchdowns better now than they were in November. I think not. New Orleans, off a bye, should be as strong as ever with Drew Brees leading the way. For a second year in a row, the Saints offense was top five in both rushing and passing. In the last five home games that Brees has played (remember, he sat the regular season finale), the Saints have averaged 40 PPG! The Saints aren't just all offense anymore though; they boasted the top run defense in the league this year, allowing only 80 YPG. The Saints have won their last five playoff home games, so homefield advantage is a very real thing in this Divisional Round matchup. As they showed in the regular season, the Saints are simply a much better team than the Eagles this year. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots -3.5 | Top | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 142 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Patriots The Chargers beat the Ravens in the Wild Card Round, but the win would certainly qualify as "ugly" with Baltimore's offense not doing much for the first three quarters save for gifting LA numerous opportunities to take advantage of. The Chargers scored just one offensive TD the entire game and got three fields on drives that went less than 20 yards, thanks to either Ravens turnovers or a key special teams plays. Tom Brady and the Patriots will not provide such opportunities. Off a bye and at home, this is an ideal price range to grab New England. Keep in mind that they are 24-4 SU the last 28 home games, also going 20-8 ATS. During that time, they are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This season saw them win all four games in that range. This is just the fifth time with Belichick & Brady that New England is laying less than six points in Foxboro. They are 3-1 SU and ATS the previous four. They are the only team that won all eight home games in the regular season. For what it's worth, the Patriots are also 4-0 SU and ATS the last four meetings with the Chargers. This is Los Angeles' second straight week playing an early start in the Eastern Time Zone. That does them no favors against a superior side. Play on NEW ENGLAND. AAA |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys v. Rams -7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA RAMS. Despite having Todd Gurley, don't expect the Rams to do what the Seahawks attempted (and failed) to do last week against the Cowboys. That would be run, run and run some more. Seattle OC Brian Schottenhiemer essentially taking the game out of Russell Wilson's hands was foolish to say the least and isn't something we're likely to see here from Rams coach Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. As they're coming off a bye, I like the Rams at home quite a bit this week. It's been almost 25 years since the Cowboys won multiple playoff games in the same year. They have not won a playoff road game since 1993. Los Angeles will be extra motivated after losing last year's playoff game at home (to the Falcons). As we saw last week, the Dallas defense is good against the run, but they can be beat through the air. Wilson averaged 8.6 yards per attempt against them. No NFC team averaged more yards per play than the Rams did in the regular season. After the back door cover that affected most last week (not me as I bet Dallas -1), the Cowboys are 6-13 ATS against teams with winning records. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 125 h 4 m | Show |
These are easily the two best teams in the country and I think the gap between the two isn't nearly as large as the oddsmakers seem to, if it even exists at all. 14-0 Clemson has been unstoppable since Trevor Lawrence took over as the quarterback. They have all nine games by at least three touchdowns, including a 30-3 beatdown of Notre Dame in the semifinal. Sound familiar? Alabama (14-0) hasn't lost a game since making its own famous QB change, to Tua Tagovailoa, in last year's National Championship Game. That was of course the game AFTER the Crimson Tide last faced Clemson, a 24-6 win. Expect this one to be along the lines of the two Championship Games these teams played in 2016 and 2017. This Clemson team is a lot better than last year, not only because of Lawrence, but the defense as well. The Tigers are only giving up 12.9 points per game, the fewest in the nation. They also allow just 274.7 yards per game. That's 93 on the ground and only 182 through the air. Not saying they'll hold Bama to those totals, but Clemson's defense isn't about to let this turn into a blowout. This game should be much closer to a pick 'em. Play on CLEMSON |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -5.5 | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 43 m | Show |
My *10* NFL Playoff Game of the YEAR is on the BEARS. Don't be fooled into thinking that the 12-4 Bears drew some sort of "unfavorable" matchup here with the 9-7 Eagles. Sure, it would have been nice to play the Vikings against based on how easily the Monsters of the Midway dispatched of them (in Minnesota) in Week 17. But the amount of respect Philadelphia is getting here is based on LAST season, not this one when they were a very mediocre team. Yes, Nick Foles is back at QB and he led Philly to a Super Bowl last year. But, statistically, this year's Eagles are not close to last year's. They're also having to go on the road here. (Last year, they only need to win two home games to get to the SB. This year, they'd have to win three on the road). The Eagles were outgained both on a per game and per play basis in the regular season. Chicago comes in with perhaps the best defense in the league. They are allowing just 17.7 points per game and should give Foles and what remains a limited offense plenty of trouble. As for the Bears offense, coach Matt Nagy has done a great job at managing QB Mitchell Trubisky and he'll have plenty of chances to make plays against an Eagles defense that is still beat up on the back end. Chicago has been the far better team this year and has covered 9 of its last 10 games. The only non-cover was a FG loss in overtime. They are 16-4-1 ATS their previous 21 home games. The BEARS are my *10* Playoff Game of the Year. AAA |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DALLAS The nightcap Saturday sees the 10-6 Cowboys hosting the 10-6 Seahawks. Dallas got the homefield advantage by winning the NFC East while Seattle had to settle for second in the NFC West. But the Seahawks did beat the Cowboys in the regular season, 24-13, all the way back in Week 3. But that game was in Seattle. Dallas played pretty poorly, turning it over three times and as a result trailed by double digits most of the way. But their defense did a good job, holding Russell Wilson and company to less than 300 total yards and just 113 rushing. The key to the Seattle offense is running the football as they led the league in that department. But the Cowboys defense was one of the best at stopping the run. They allow only 94.6 rush yards per game, which ranked 5th in the league. Really, the Dallas defense deserves more accolades as it was pretty great this year. A big reason America's Team was 7-1 in "Jerry World" this year was that the defense gave up only 18.5 PPG. Seattle's defense allowed at least 24 points in six of the last eight games. The Seahawks are only 1-5 ATS their last six playoff games. In both games Saturday, the better defensive team is playing at home. I expect both to win. Play on the COWBOYS. AAA |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -125 | 74 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the TEXANS It's two AFC South teams matching up in our first Wild Card Game of the weekend. The 11-5 Texans host the 10-6 Colts. Saturday marks the third time they will have met this season and the road team has had the edge so far, winning and covering both games. But I think I would be foolish to think there's any kind of "edge" being the road team in the NFL playoffs. Indianapolis was only 4-4 on the road in the regular season as opposed to 6-2 at home. On offense, they are likely going to be reduced to a one-dimension attack here. They could not run on this Houston defense in either regular season meeting, totaling just 91 yards. That's going to put a lot of pressure on Andrew Luck. The Texans allow only 17 points per game at home. The Colts scored 24 in their visit, but that was actually the second most points by any visitor this year at NRG Stadium. I do not see them scoring that many this time. Something I find interesting is that Houston was actually a 1-pt favorite for the game in Indianapolis, then a 4-pt favorite for the last game here. Good value this third time around. The Colts are just 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff road games. I look for Houston QB Watson to make more plays than Luck on Saturday, getting his team the win. Play on the TEXANS AAA |
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01-01-19 | Washington +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Washington in the Rose Bowl. I'll be taking the points with Washington in the Rose Bowl as they are the better defensive team and an all-around undervalued side. While Ohio State (12-1) has the better won-loss record (Washington 10-3), the Huskies' three losses were all close games and they could have won all of them. They were basically three plays away from being unbeaten. While a lot of focus here is on how the Buckeyes finished their regular season (destroyed rival Michigan), Washington was pretty impressive in its own right, holding Washington State and Utah to just 18 total points. The Huskies have one of the top defenses in the country (15.5 PPG allowed), so that will keep them in this game. With this being Urban Meyer's final game patrolling the sidelines, everyone is loading up pn the Buckeyes, but that's inflated the number. Washington was an underdog only twice this year, vs. Auburn and at Washington State. They won in Pullman and lost to Auburn by only five, a game they easily could have won. Play WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-01-19 | Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* WINNER on Iowa in the Outback Bowl. In my eyes, this Outback Bowl matchup of 8-4 Iowa and 8-4 Mississippi State pits two very underrated teams against one another. But in the end, I feel the favorite's inability to score consistently will cost them here, laying so many points. The Iowa defense gives up just 17.4 points per game. Mississippi State gives up the fewest in the country (12.0), so it should be a low-scoring game all around. With points likely at a premium in a matchup such as this, the underdog just seems like the right move. There were four times this year that Miss State was held under 10 points. Most of the Bulldogs dominant performances were against non-bowl teams. Of Iowa's four losses, three were by six points or fewer and the other (28-17 vs. Wisconsin) saw them give up two touchdowns in the final minute. Miss State was generally dominated in its losses. Oddsmakers agree that this is going to be a low-scoring game and taking points in the way to go. Play IOWA. AAA |
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12-30-18 | Colts -3.5 v. Titans | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indianapolis Colts. This is a big game, as the winner will advance with a wild card spot, while the loser will be going golfing. Andrew Luck and the Colts though annihilated the Titans 38-10 at home in the first matchup this year and we believe a similar result is in the cards here as well. Also note that Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota is questionable for this one and if he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% health. Finally note that the Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, while the Titans are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. teams with winning road records. Lay the points, play on the COLTS. AAA Sports |
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12-30-18 | Bengals v. Steelers -14.5 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -103 | 77 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a beatdown from start to finish here. The Bengals come in off a 26-18 road loss to Cleveland, while Pittsburgh fell 31-28 on the road in New Orleans last Sunday. The Steelers have won seven straight in the series though, including a 28-21 road win in the first one this year. Bengals’ starting QB Andy Dalton though isn’t playing anymore and the Bengals have nothing to play for. Pittsburgh has to win this game and have the Ravens lose to Cleveland to make the postseason. We’re expecting the under-achieving home side to lay the foot on the gas from start to finish. Note that the STEELERS are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS win, while Cincinnati is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a road loss vs. a division rival. Lay the points with confidence. AAA Sports |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse -1 v. West Virginia | Top | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Syracuse. We think WVU goes through the motions today. The Mountaineers ended their regular season on a two-game losing streak. Syracuse is 9-3 overall and it’s 5-1 in its last six. The Orange have scored at least 40 points in each of their last five victories with extra time off to prepare, we think Syracuse is the “hungrier” team here. WVU enters without starting QB Will Grier, who skips the bowl to enter the NFL draft. Backup Jack Allison has only attempted ten passes in 2018. Note that WVU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven neutral site games as well, while Syracuse is 4-1-1 ATS In its last six non-conference games. Play on SYRACUSE. AAA Sports |
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12-26-18 | TCU +1 v. California | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 37 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on TCU. These teams are evenly matched as far as the points per game (Cal averages 22.8 PPG, and TCU averages 24.4) and in points allowed (Cal concedes 21.2 and TCU allows 24.4). However, TCU comes in with considerable momentum and we think it’ll carry over here after a 31-24 home win over Oklahoma State pushed them to eligibility. Cal on the other hand hand won four of five before a date with Standford in its finale, a game which saw it fall 10-6. Note that TCU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games following a win in which it scored 30 or more points in and also earned the cover, while Cal is just 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. Play on TCU. AAA Sports |
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12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts -9 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF. SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Colts. We’re not expecting any upsets here as we look for Indianapolis to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Indianapolis is a team on a mission right now and it’ll be looking to build off its 23-0 home win over Dallas last week. The Giants tried their best to play spoiler last week, but they got destroyed by the Titans. With OBJ sidelined, we’re not giving the visitors much of a chance in this difficult road venue. With last week’s loss the Giants are now officially out of contention. The Colts though are firing on all cylinders and could be the team to beat in the AFC this year. Note that New York is just 4-10-2 ATS in is last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record, while Indianapolis is 32-14-1 ATS in its last 47 vs. teams with losing records. Lay the points; play on the COLTS. AAA Sports |
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12-21-18 | BYU -12 v. Western Michigan | Top | 49-18 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on BYU. Both teams were forced to change up their starting QB’s half way through the season. We think that BYU’s tough defensive play though will prove to be the difference today. Kaleb Eleby got the 28-21 win over NIU in the Broncos regular season finale, but he’ll have his handful today with a Cougars’ defense which allowed just 21.7 PPG, ranked in the top 20 in the country. BYU is still 3-0 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while WMU is just already 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Lay the point; play on BYU. AAA Sports |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois +3 v. UAB | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Northern Illinois. With two weeks off to prepare, we think the NIU Huskies will keep this one close. NIU averages only 20.7 PPG, but the Huskies make up for it on the other end of the field by allowing just 21.5. UAB averages 29.3 PPG and it allows 17.3. We’d argue though that the Huskies face tougher competition in the MAC. UAB QB AJ Erdely is questionable for this one as well and if he can’t go, then Tyler Johnston III will get the call. Regardless, it’s not an ideal situation for the Blazers. Note that the Huskies are 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year, while UAB is interestingly 0-3 ATS in its last three vs. the MAC. Grab the points, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Pittsburgh Steelers. If you’re wagering on this game, then a “break down” of individual player match-ups, a history of what the two teams have done against each other and their strengths and weaknesses are well known to even the most casual NFL fan. It wouldn’t be hard to make a convincing argument for either of these teams. Both have looked unbeatable at times this season and they’ve also each looked pretty terrible in others. This time around though, we really do think that home field will prove to be a big difference maker this week. Note as well that New England is already only 1-3 ATS this year as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog. Play on the STEELERS. AAA Sports |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +9 v. Utah State | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas. Outright upset? Probably not, but we think the Mean Green will keep this one interesting late. UNT was 9-3 overall and 5-3 in the C-USA, while Utah State went 10-2 overall and 7-1 in the Mountain West. UNT averages 36.4 PPG and it allows only 21.8. Utah State averages 47.2 PPG and it allows 23. On paper, this one favors Utah State, but with the extra time off to prepare and with nothing to lose, we expect the Mean Green to take this one down to the wire. Note as well that Utah State is just 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with winning records, while UNT is still 10-3 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games. Grab the points; play on NORTH TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Seattle Seahawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 14 points or less in its previous competition, while Seattle is already 3-1 ATS at home and when playing the role of favorite this year, but also 8-2 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest. The bottom line: This is an important game for both teams, but home field is a major advantage here. Expect Russell Wilson to deliver the goods; play on the SEAHAWKS. AAA Sports |
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12-09-18 | Falcons v. Packers -5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 53 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Green Bay Packers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog already this year and 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off an upset loss as a favorite, while Green Bay is still 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range and 4-1 ATS in its last five after having lost five or six out of its last seven games. The bottom line: The loser is officially eliminated. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t go down without a fight, especially at home. Lay the points; play on the PACKERS. AAA Sports |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 82 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Tennessee Titans. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Jacksonville is just 1-3 ATS on the road this season and just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog, while Tennessee is 12-8 ATS still in its last 20 at home and interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight in the final four weeks of the regular season. The bottom line: The Jags won’t be playing in the playoffs and they enter off a very satisfying 6-0 win over the Colts. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Titans still have hope to make an AFC Wild card game, but they have to start stringing some wins together. After last week’s late 26-22 win over the Jets, we think that TENNESSEE carries that momentum over at home on the short week; lay the points. AAA Sports |
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12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Washington Redskins. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six after having lost three of out if last four games SU and 11-5 ATS i its last six after one or more SU losses vs. the spread, while Philadelphia is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The bottom line: With both teams desperate for this divisional victory, we’re grabbing the points and expecting it come down to the wire. Play on the REDSKINS. AAA Sports |
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12-02-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the LA Chargers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that LA already 4-1 ATS on the road this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two-game home stand, while Pittsburgh is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite of seven points or less and just 2-3 ATS in its last five after playing its last game on the road. The bottom line: We’re grabbing the points, but not ruling out an outright upset; grab the points, play on the CHARGERS. AAA Sports |
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12-02-18 | Chiefs -14 v. Raiders | Top | 40-33 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Kansas City Chiefs. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that KC has is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a road favorite and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. the division, while Oakland is a miserable 9-16 ATS in its last 25 as an underdog and only 1-3 ATS in its last four at home. The bottom line: The Raiders are lining up nicely for a top spot in the draft, while we look for a rested KC side to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Lay the points, play on the CHIEFS. AAA Sports |
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12-01-18 | Texas +8 v. Oklahoma | Top | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on Texas. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 vs. teams with winning records, while Oklahoma is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. The bottom line: Texas already beat Oklahoma this year. The Longhorns have the better defense and while we’re not calling for the outright upset, all signs point to a tight battle. Grab the points, play on TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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11-25-18 | Packers +4 v. Vikings | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Green Bay Packers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Green Bay is still 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams with winning records, while Minnesota is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 vs. the division. The bottom line: Green Bay will be out of the playoff picture if it loses today and because of that, we’re expecting another full four quarter effort from the visiting side. Grab the points, play on the PACKERS. AAA Sports |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins v. Colts -10 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -100 | 147 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Indianapolis Colts. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Miami is already just 1-3 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The bottom line: The Dolphins come out of their bye week with Ryan Tannehill under censer, but we think they’re going to stumble here against this surging COLTS side. The line moved a couple points in favor of Miami with the news of Tannehill play, but we think he’s getting far too much respect here. Lay the points and expect a blowout. AAA Sports |
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11-24-18 | Wake Forest +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 59-7 | Win | 100 | 136 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Wake Forest is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a loss vs. a conference rival and still 10-5 ATS in its last 15 on eh road, while Duke is just 2-4 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records and just 1-5 ATS as a favorite this year. The bottom line: Duke’s already punched its ticket to a bowl sitting at 7-4, but at 5-6, the Demon Deacons have one last shot. Grab the points, play on WAKE FOREST. AAA Sports |
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11-24-18 | Michigan v. Ohio State +4 | Top | 39-62 | Win | 100 | 135 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Michigan is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 off a win vs. a conference rival and only 1-3 ATS on the road this season, while Ohio State is 3-1 ATS in its last four at home. The bottom line: Ohio State has been terrible overall against the spread this year, but it’s always had Michigan’s number, coming into this one having won 11 straight in the series. The Buckeyes’ offense is better and its defense is just as good. At home, we love OHIO STATE to pull off the slight upset. That said, grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-23-18 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -18 | Top | 6-56 | Win | 100 | 115 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Cincinnati. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that ECU is a terrible 3-11 ATS in its last 14 on the road, while Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records and 3-1 ATS as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The bottom line: After last week’s humbling loss to UCF, look for the BEARCATS to lay the hammer down from start to finish in their final regular season game at home; lay the points. AAA Sports |
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11-23-18 | Arkansas +21 v. Missouri | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -109 | 114 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arkansas. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Arkansas is 5-1 ATS this year already off a loss vs. a conference rival and 4-2 ATS this season as an underdog, while Missouri is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a win vs. a conference rival and only 2-4 ATS this season vs. conference opponents. The bottom line: We’re not calling for an outright upset, but we think the ARKANSAS offense can keep the visitors in this one late; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss +10 | Top | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* MASSACRE on Mississippi. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Mississippi State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 9.5 to 21 points range and only 3-6 ATS in its last nine off a win against a conference rival, while Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the 9.5 to 14 points range. The bottom line: OLE MISS won’t be going down without a fight today, as it still needs a victory to become eligible; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan. Both teams come in off losses, with the Huskies falling at home to NIU and WMU falling to Ball State 35-31. The Huskies six-game win streak was snapped and I think they’ll stumble here as well. WMU is without QB Jon Wassink the last three games and the result has been three straight losses. But the team has slowly been making adjustments and a date at home in its season finale is just what the doctor ordered for back Kaleb Eleby in our opinion. Note as well that NIU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while WMU is still 6-4 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-17-18 | Virginia +6.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 140 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Virginia. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Virginia is already 3-1 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 3-1 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records, while Georgia Tech is already just 2-3 ATS at home and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. We think the CAVALIERS’ defense keeps the visitors in this one late; grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-17-18 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +6 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -108 | 137 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after two or more SU wins and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite, while Wake Forest is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog and 5-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival. Look for desperate WAKE FOREST to take this one down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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11-16-18 | Boise State v. New Mexico +20 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on New Mexico. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Boise State is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after playing a conference game and just 6-11 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while New Mexico is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog. We think Boise gets caught looking past its lowly but hungry home opponent. Grab the points, play on NEW MEXICO. AAA Sports |
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11-15-18 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 99 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on North Texas. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that FAU is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while UNT is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home fav of three points or less. The bottom line: FAU comes in off a nice win and UNT enters off an upset loss. Look for the high-flying MEAN GREEN to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 86 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Seattle Seahawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year and only 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records, while Seattle is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 following a divisional contests and 2-0 ATS in its last two following two or more SU losses. The bottom line: The Pack come in off a win at home over the Fish, while the Hawks enter off a loss in LA. Seattle looked sharp last week though and we think it’ll find a way to get the job done here and defend home field. Lay the points, play on the SEAHAWKS. AAA Sports |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH +6.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 73 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Miami Ohio. After six straight wins, we think NIU comes up short here. Miami Ohio is the “hungrier” team here, as it still sits two games behind in the East race. The Redhawks though come in off a big win over Ohio last week and there’s no reason not to think that the team can’t carry that momentum over here as well. It sets up well from a situational stand point for an outright upset, but also note that MIAMI OHIO is a strong 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a win against a conference rival, while NIU is only 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +8 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Ball State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that WMU is a horrible 9-12 ATS in its last 21 following a conference game (including just 1-4 ATS this year), while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The bottom line: WMU is free falling after QB Jon Wassink went down. BALL STATE keeps this one competitive at home. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 37 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Giants. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that New York is already 3-1 ATS on the road this year, 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU losses and 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a loss against a division rival, while San Fran is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 8-10 ATS in its last 18 vs. teams with losing records. The bottom line: New York comes in rested out of its bye and desperate to avoid a 1-8 start. The 49ers enter off a satisfying 34-3 win over the Raiders, but we think it’ll take a step back here against this talented and rested GIANTS’ defense. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +4.5 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 149 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* UPSET SPECIAL on the Cleveland Browns. The Falcons have won three in a row and they come in off a big victory on the road last weekend, but we think they’ll finally stumble here against a Browns team hungry for a victory. Cleveland won’t be going to the playoffs, but it also won’t go down without a fight today. Cleveland rookie QB Baker Mayfield doesn’t have a lot to work with, but he’s kept his team competitive each week and he’ll be given the “green light” here today to open things up early and often. Atlanta’s defense has been horrible, so the home side is going to have its opportunities. Note that ATL is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests, while Cleveland is already 2-0 ATS in non-conference contests this season. Grab the points, play on the BROWNS. AAA Sports |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars v. Colts -3 | Top | 26-29 | Push | 0 | 149 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indianapolis Colts. Jacksonville opened the year with a big win over the Patriots, but since then it’s been mostly downhill. The offense has been terrible and overall the team has had to deal with injuries from Day 1. The Colts have had to deal with injuries as well, but veteran QB Andrew Luck has for the most part been excellent. The Colts remain competitive each week with Luck in the lineup and we expect him to push the tempo and open this one up whenever he can. The Jags’ lack of offensive fire-power in this difficult road venue turns out to be the difference ultimately in the end for us. Lay the points, play on the COLTS. AAA Sports |
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11-10-18 | Oregon State v. Stanford -22.5 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 144 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Stanford. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Oregon State is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 on the road and only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Stanford is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: Wrong time, wrong place for Oregon State. Stanford comes in on a losing streak and desperate for victory. The situation and the numbers both point to STANFORD as the correct call in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-10-18 | Virginia Tech +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 22-52 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Virginia Tech is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while Pittsburgh is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU wins and only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite. The bottom line: Virginia Tech is the more desperate team after its recent slide and we haven’t counted the Hokies out yet. Look for the visitors to go down fighting and grab the points; play on VIRGINIA TECH. AAA Sports |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest +15 v. NC State | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 95 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Wake Forest. Wake Forest lost its starting QB and it’s struggled against the better competition, but it desperately needs a victory and after NC State broke a two-game slide with a win last week at home, we think the Wolfpack come in a tiny bit complacent here. Note that Wake has been “money in the bank” for bettors in this spot as well by going 9-5 ATS in its last 14 on the road and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 when playing on six or less days rest. Grab the points, play on WAKE FOREST. AAA Sports |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 70 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio. Ohio’s won four straight and it comes in off a big blowout victory as an underdog over WMU, but Miami Ohio plays with revenge and it’s still trying desperately to become bowl eligible. After two straight big wins, we absolutely believe the Bobcats have a letdown mentally here. Note that MIAMI OHIO is already 4-1 ATS against the conference this season, while Ohio is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite. AAA Sports |
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11-06-18 | Kent State +22.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -109 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Kent State. We think the first place Bulls look past the lowly Kent State Golden Flashes tonight. Kent enters off a 35-28 road win over Bowling Green, while Buffalo pulled away for a 52-41 home win over Miami Ohio in its latest action. Note that this is a revenge game for Kent after the Bulls posted the 27-13 road win last year. The Golden Flashes are averaging 24.3 PPG and allowing 34.2, while the Bulls are averaging 34.9 and allowing 24.3. But the Golden Flashes looked solid last week and we think they carry that momentum over here (QB Woody Barrett had two TD passes and also rushed for 77 yards.) Note that KENT STATE is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog on the 21.5 to 31 points range, while Buffalo is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a fav in the same points range. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns +9.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense: As note that KC is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Cleveland is already 4-2 ATS this year as an underdog. The bottom line: We’re absolutely expecting the Chiefs to have a bit of mental letdown in Cleveland today. The BROWNS remain competitive and won’t go down without a fight. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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11-03-18 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -17 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Ohio State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats: As note that Nebraska is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range and only 9-16 ATS in is last 16 games played on turf, while Ohio State is 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks rest. The bottom line: The Buckeyes chances for a playoff spot are slim, but a top level bowl is still in their sites with a sweep of the season. Look for OHIO STATE to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with confidence. AAA Sports |
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