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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-04-15 | NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins +1 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 158 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Miami Dolphins. |
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10-03-15 | Purdue v. Michigan State -24 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State. |
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10-03-15 | Minnesota +7 v. Northwestern | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Minnesota. |
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10-01-15 | Baltimore Ravens -2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 97 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Baltimore Ravens. |
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09-27-15 | Chicago Bears v. Seattle Seahawks -14.5 | Top | 0-26 | Win | 100 | 114 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks. |
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09-27-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Philadelphia Eagles. |
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09-26-15 | Ball State +18 v. Northwestern | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 149 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Ball State. |
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09-26-15 | BYU v. Michigan -4 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 141 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan. |
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09-26-15 | Central Michigan v. Michigan State -28.5 | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State. |
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09-25-15 | Stanford v. Oregon State +16.5 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* SCORPION on Oregon State. |
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 | Top | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 123 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Pittsburgh Steelers. |
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09-17-15 | Clemson v. Louisville +5.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Louisville. |
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09-14-15 | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 3-20 | Loss | -105 | 221 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Minnesota Vikings. |
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09-13-15 | Miami Dolphins -3.5 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 196 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Dolphins. |
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09-13-15 | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 196 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks. |
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09-12-15 | Oregon +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon. |
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09-12-15 | South Florida v. Florida State -28.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida State. |
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09-10-15 | Louisiana Tech +1.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Louisiana Tech. |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +11 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 792 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Virginia Tech. |
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09-06-15 | Purdue v. Marshall -7 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 744 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Marshall. |
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09-05-15 | Arkansas State v. USC -28 | Top | 6-55 | Win | 100 | 733 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on USC. |
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09-05-15 | BYU v. Nebraska -4.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 725 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Nebraska. |
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09-03-15 | Michigan +6 v. Utah | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 683 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan. |
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09-03-15 | Western Kentucky +2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 14-12 | Win | 100 | 682 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Western Kentucky. |
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09-03-15 | South Carolina -3 v. North Carolina | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 724 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on South Carolina. |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks +1 v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -102 | 327 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BOWL SUPER SIDE on the Seattle Seahawks. For a number of different reasons I think that the Seattle Seahawks are going to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. What more can be said about these two teams’ strengths and weaknesses which hasn’t literally been said a million times by now by every talking head and analyst in North America. Both teams are extremely well coached. New England revolves around the play of veteran QB Tom Brady; simply put, if Brady has an “off” day, then the Patriots have no chance at winning this game, or any game for that matter. The Pats improved tremendously from last year though, they are a much more complete team overall, getting balanced running and a much more competent defense and secondary. The Seahawks also have one of the best QB’s in the league guiding them, as Russell Wilson is one of the NFL’s most dynamic overall pivots, able to make plays with both his arm and his feet. However, if Wilson has an “off day”, the Seahawks are still able to win games and it’s this factor which I believe will prove to be the difference here. Certainly Wilson was not at his best in the Conference Championship win over the Green Bay Packers, and while the Hawks may have been “lucky” to win that contest, a combination of the league’s best defense and a strong running game would support Wilson and give him a chance to redeem himself in the final moments. The Patriots simply don’t have the same ability whatsoever. To me, this game seems eerily familiar to last year’s Super Bowl when the Seahawks destoryed Peyton Manning and the Broncos and while the oddsmakers are giving the defending champs a lot more respect this time around, I definitely don’t think it’s enough. I won’t be throwing out any ATS stats or trends today, obviously in a game like this they are meaningless. I simply feel that SEATTLE is the better overall team and expect this incredible depth on both sides of the ball to prove to be the difference in the outcome. AAA Sports |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers +12.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -130 | 135 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Carolina Panthers. I bet against the Panthers last week, but that was then and this is now; while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Making the playoffs and then succeeding in the postseason has a lot to do with timing and team chemistry. Seattle definitely looks like it has the pieces in place to make another run at the Super Bowl title, it enters the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. After a slow start the Seahawks would finally find some chemistry at the midway point and have been virtually unstoppable since. Carolina on the other hand was in a dog fight all year in the lowly NFC South, but managed to finally put it all together in the last few weeks and also comes into this game with momentum and confidence. I simply don’t feel that the bookmakers are giving enough respect to Carolina’s defense or to QB Cam Newton who is reportedly near 100% health. Carolina has an effective run game, which will be useful in keeping the Seattle offense off the field. I think these teams are much more evently matched than what the spread is saying. Note that the Panthers are a perfect 4-0 ATS this year in revening a loss vs. an opponent (lost 13-9 at home to the Hawks back on November 26th); and note that Seattle is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite of 10 points or more. In my opinion, this number is just a little high, play on CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -102 | 132 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New England Patriots. I played the Ravens last week and they would go on to upset the Steelers 30-17 in Pittsburgh. Pulling off another epic upset on the road is not in the cards in my opinion, I believe that home field advantage is a big factor today and expect the determined Patriots to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. What more can be said about these teams that hasn’t literally been said millions of times by all the “talking heads” across the nation for the last 15 years? If you are wagering on this game, you are clearly a fan of the NFL and don’t need to be told by me about the obvious strengths and weaknesses of each side. I am not a coach, a scout or a player evaluator. I am a professional sports handicapper. Some handicappers look at individual player matchups, while others (like myself), are “situational” prognosticators, which means that for the most part, it doesn’t matter who is on the field of play. And that’s definitely the case for me, 95% of the time I base my picks on “situations”, which includes motivational factors and scheduling etc. It’s hard to win on the road in the NFL and it’s extremely difficult to win away from friendly confines in the Playoffs. Are the Ravens a team of destiny? In my opinion, the answer is clearly: no! New England struggled to start the year but a rejuvinated Tom Brady would turn his performance around and the Pats would win 10 of their last 12 SU. Note that Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU wins, while New England is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the PATRIOTS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 157 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* WILD CARD BLOCKBUSTER on the Detroit Lions. It’s been an unreal year for Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys, who would both ride RB DeMarco Murray into the Playoffs. But now Murray is about to run head first into the league’s best rush defense and I ultimatley feel that this factor will decide the outcome of this game. With Detroit effectively shutting down Murray today, the spot light will be on Romo to perform, this is the type of scenario that he’s failed in throughout his career and I expect that trend to continue today (note that Romo is just 1-3 in the postseason). The Lions would limit their opposition to 69.3 rushing yards per game with 133 tackles for a loss to lead the NFL in both categories this year. The Cowboys defense is hardly a “World Stopper”, certainly the talented Lions offensive unit has a big opportunity to put some points on the board; note that QB Matt Stafford threw for 488 yards (many to Calvin Johnson) in these teams last meeting together, a 31-30 Detroit win on October 27th, 2013. Johnson would finish with 14 receptions for 329 yards. Also note that Dallas’ defense suffered a blow in last week’s win over the Redskins when DT Henry Melton was lost for the remainder of the year with a knee injury. I think this is an offense that DETROIT is tailor made to stop, grab the points. AAA Sports |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals +5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* WILD CARD BLOCKBUSTER on the Arizona Cardinals. I jumped on this line right when it came out and got 4.5 and it’s since gone up to as high as 6.5 as of writing; regardless, I really like this play and think that the incredible depth of the Cardinals will prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. Obviously I think the outright win is a very real possibility and if so inclined, you may want to consider “sprinkling a little” on the money line as well. In my opinion, this one is going to come down to the wire and as such I will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Carolina; the Panthers battled in the worst division in the league and would gut out a victory over the hapless Atlanta Falcons for the right to represent the anemic NFC South in their final game of the year (I had Carolina in that one). I think Carolina is just happy to be here. Sure the Panthers have won three straight, but now they’re going to run smack dab into a hungry and determined Cardinals team which will be looking to take its frustrations out on someone after coming up just short down the stretch of the regular season. While the Cards are relegated to having to use their third string QB, which I will admit is a huge factor, I will just remind you that a “Football” team is more than just a single man, something that Arizona has proved throughout the year. Does Carolina even have a serious QB advantage here? In my opinion, no, Cam Newton has looked brilliant at times this year and extremely poor in others. He has supposedly been dealing with injuries and is healthier now than ever before, but if there’s one thing that Newton has proven throughout his career, it’s been that he’s extremely inconsistent from game to game. I think the QB “talent gap” is not as big as what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Ryan Lindley will have his hands full today with an improving Panthers secondary, but he has lots of talented weapons to lean on. And in my opinion, the Cardinals defense is superior overall. Arizona competed in the ultra competitive NFC West and despite its QB issues, I believe is still the better team today; play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State +10 v. Alabama | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 531 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Ohio State. I chose Ohio State to win the Big Ten and while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset here, I do think that the Buckeyes will come to play today and expect them to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I also picked the Tide to win the SEC as Alabama comes to New Orleans on an eight-game win streak. Alabama endured a grueling schedule and survived some close calls along the way. The Tide allowed just 16.6 PPG this year, which is fourth in the Nation. But Alabama is about to run smack dab into the middle of the Buckeyes high octane offense, a unit which used a 59-0 destruction of Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game to punch its ticket to the semi finals of the inaugural College Football playoff. I don’t care who is under center for Ohio State, this is an offense that is running like a well oiled-machine and I absolutely think that Alabama is in for a big surprise today. The Buckeyes have battled through so much adversity this year that it’s not even funny, I think OHIO STATE keeps this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. AAA Sports |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +10 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -120 | 527 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Florida State. I played this line pretty much right when it came out and got 9.5 and it’s since come down a bit from then, but regardless, with more than a month off to prepare for Oregon’s high-octane offense, I think the FSU defense will prove to be a difference maker today and expect the Seminoles to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This game features the countries top two QB’s, the Ducks Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy this season, while FSU’s Jameis Winston won it last year. Mariota was clearly the best QB in 2014, but the fact remains that Winston has not lost a single game in two years. Florida State though would finish with a 3-10 record ATS, which I think helped in inflating this line. The Ducks would lose early, but Oregon’s overall difficulty of schedule is the reason for its No. 1 ranking. Florida State was deceptively good this year though, it’s never easy to win at this level, but note that the Noles finished 29th in points per game and 30th in scoring defense. Florida State has won in shootouts and in defensive affairs, it’s ability to adapt to any situation is a big reason why the team is undefeated in two years. Oregon finished one spot ahead of FSU in scoring defense, but I think will be surprised today by the Seminoles versatility on the offensive side of the ball. While I won’t be so bold to predict an outright upset, I do think that FLORIDA STATE has the necessary weapons to hang with the Ducks and look for this one to come down to the wire. AAA Sports |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech +7.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 49-34 | Win | 100 | 505 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Georgia Tech. While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do believe that this is too many points to be giving up and expect Georgia Tech to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a matchup of strength vs. strength, as the Yellow Jackets high-octane triple-option offense takes on the hard-nosed defense of the Runnin Rebels. Mississippi State was dominant on the defensive side of the ball, but was not tested by anything like what Georgia Tech brings to the offensive table. The Yellow Jackets will be running today, and the team uses mismatches and clever offensive sets to get consistent production on almost every drive, ultimatley posting a ridiculous 333.6 yards of offense per game average on the ground this year. In all, fourteen players have recorded a carry for the team and twelve of those have at least 100 yards. However, if the defense cheats, then QB Justin Thomas can burn it through the air, the sophomore tallied 17 TD’s with just five INTs in 175 attempts. As good as the Bulldogs defense is, I have a hard time seeing their offense keeping pace. I like Georgia Tech to turn up the pressure early and while Mississippi State may in the end pull out the victory, I definitely expect this one to come down to the wire, indeed making the savvy move on the YELLOW JACKETS. AAA Sports |
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12-31-14 | Ole Miss v. TCU -3 | Top | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 497 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on TCU. I think TCU brings more to the table in this matchup and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. TCU is the No. 2 scoring offense in the country. Mississippi has the FBS No. 1 ranked defense. This is a classic matchup of strength vs. strength. However, I think the Horned Frogs’ defense has a big opportunity to make some noise today as well and ultimately think that Mississippi will finally stumble after having to play catch-up all day long. TCU is choked after getting passed over in the inaugural College Footbal Playoff and I think it takes its frustrations out on Mississippi, the Horned Frogs would rout Iowa State 55-3 on December 6th, an effort not good enough in the committee’s eyes to secure a position: “We feel like this is a playoff game," said coach Gary Patterson enthusiastically last week. "Ole Miss was as high as third in the nation, they play at a very high level." The Rebels were rolling, but a loss to LSU on October 25th, and a 35-31 setback to Auburn a week later, as well as losing star receiver Laquon Treadwell to injury, all culminated in Mississippi’s national title hopes going up in flames. The Rebels would then also go on to lose 30-0 at Arkansas in their next SEC game, but would in the end finally recover to beat Mississippi State 31-17 in the Egg Bowl in its finale. It’s very important to note that Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace struggled down the stretch without Treadwell, completing just 55 percent of his passes with five TDs and five INTs in the final five games, after throwing 17 TDs and averaging 9.1 YPA during his team’s 7-0 start. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, after taking all of the above situational and motivational factors into consideration, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to TCU as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +4 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 136 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Carolina Panthers. While I obviously think the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. It’s do or die, the winner of this game will go on to represent the surprisingly poor NFC South. These are a couple of bad teams. Atlanta remained alive in the race by beating the Saints 30-14 last Sunday, its first win in three games. Carolina needs to win or tie to clinch the division and will play with revenge here after falling 19-17 to the Falcons in Week 11: "We're in a great position," Panthers coach Ron Rivera assessed earlier in the week. "We have a chance to do something that's never happened in the NFC South and that's (win) back-to-back division titles." Carolina though is moving in the right direction to end the year, after giving up an average of 29 points during a six-game skid, the Panthers have won all three of their games this month, outscoring the opposition 77-40 in the process (it’s interesting to note that Carolina is 14-3 in the month of December since Rivera took over in 2011). Panthers QB Cam Newton has overcome season long injury issues to play a lot better of late, he threw for 201 yards with a TD, while also adding 12 carries for 63 yards and another score in last Sunday’s 17-13 win over the Browns. Also note that Carolina RB Jonathan Stewart has been a wrecking ball over the last month, he leads the league with 437 rushing yards in that span. A lone bright spot for Atlanta’s offense has been receiver Julio Jones, at least in the consistency department, but Jones can’t win the game by himself, I believe Carolina continues to make progressions on the defensive side of the ball today. I think this game should be a pick-em and as far as I’m concerned that means that the PANTHERS are indeed the sharp move in this pivotal contest. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers -6 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 136 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers. With likely many of their jobs on the line, the 49ers still have something to play for today. San Francisco will also be relishing the chance to play spoiler today and to take its frustrations out on division rival and playoff bound Arizona. The Cardinals of course come in with their third string QB and now have more questions than answers on both sides of the ball. The conditions are certainly right for a lop-sided blowout in my opinion. Arizona has zero TD’s in its last two games and will have to put Ryan Lindley back under center; Lindley fell to 1-4 in his career as a starter after completing 18 of 44 passes for 216 yards with one INT in last Sunday’s 35-6 loss at home to Seattle. This is likely Jim Harbaugh’s swan song for San Francisco, added incentive for the home side to come out with a big effort. This is also a revenge game for the 49ers after falling 23-14 in Arizona on September 21st. San Francisco’s four-game slide is the club’s longest under Harbaugh and suffice it to say, I think the motivational and situational edges working in its favor will ensure that that streak of futility ends today. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to SAN FRANCISCO as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | St. Louis Rams +14 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 6-20 | Push | 0 | 136 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the St. Louis Rams. As good as Seattle has played of late and despite having to also win this contest to clinch the division, I believe this does in fact set up as a bit of a letdown/lookahead spot for the home side and believe that the Rams will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Interestingly, this will be the fourth time in five seasons that Seattle hosts St. Louis in Week 17. The Rams would beat the ‘Hawks 28-26 on October 19th: "It's a great place to play, it's a hard place to play and they have a great home-field advantage as everybody knows," St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher said of his team’s matchup this weekend. "We're going to have to go up there and play good football and not turn it over. They have a lot to play for so it's going to be an exciting game." A big reason the Rams won that first game was their ability to slow down RB Marshawn Lynch, holding the wrecking ball to just 53 yards on 18 carries. St. Louis’ defensive unit will also be extra motivated after giving up 514 yards in last week’s 37-27 loss to the Giants: "I mean, 500 yards of offense, you can't do that," linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar said. "I don't care who you're playing, you can't do that. It's disappointing for us to play like this." As focused as Seattle claims to be in this game, it doesn’t take too much of an imagination to picture the team in some small way “looking ahead” to the playoffs as it tries to defend its title; while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that ST. LOUIS has enough situational and motivational factors working on its side to indeed pull the trigger on this 10* selection. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers -7 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 136 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Green Bay Packers. It all comes down to this. The winner of this game will clinch the NFC North with even more positive implications on the line as well. I simply can’t understate how important I think that the “home field advantage” will be today, and believe this factor will in the end prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. The Packers plus-15 turnover differential is the best in the league and their 11 turnovers committed could be the team’s best mark since 1941. And if history is any precedence, then Green Bay has to be loving its chances here, the Pack have won 22 consecutive regular-season home games vs. the Lions. Detroit will be playing in the postseason regardless of the outcome and with that satisfying fact at the back of its collective thoughts, I think the visitors come out a bit flat here. Note that this is also a revenge game for Green Bay after it fell 19-7 in Detroit on September 21st. And as good as the Lions defense has been to this point of the season, I think the unit runs into an absolute buzzsaw today as Green Bay is 7-0 at home so far, averaging a whopping 41.1 points and 425.6 yards per game in the process. QB Aaron Rodgers has been unstoppable in front of the home town crowd, but now the dynamic pivot also has a run game to lean on, the unit has rushed for 110 yards or more in nine of the Packers last ten games, including in seven straight. And those facts don’t bode well for a Detroit offense which ranks 20th overall in total offense on the road, QB Matt Stafford has posted a poor 72.8 rating away from friendly confines. Also note that Stafford will be without the services of center Dominic Raiola because of a one game suspension, meaning that rookie Travis Swanson will hand off to him, the first time in his career that he’ll be taking snaps from someone else in a regular-season contest. After taking all of the above situational factors into consideration, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to the PACKERS as the savvy move in this particular matchup. AAA Sports |
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12-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Giants -2.5 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -115 | 133 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on the New York Giants. For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon, pulling away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Philadelphia is out of the playoff picture after last week’s setback, making this a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Now also throw in the fact that the Giants play with revenge here and enter on a three-game win skein, there’s no question in my opinion that we’re getting fantastic line value today, the motivational and situational factors working in favor of the home side are as about as strong as you could possibly hope to ask for. Philadelphia has lost three straight and has nothing left to play for here. Many of the 6-9 Giants though are playing for their jobs next year, New York is looking for one last big effort, a top draft position is out of the question. Just listen to Eagles’ TE Zach Hertz: "It's very frustrating to us to control our destiny when we are 9-3 and to have this happen," Ertz lamented earlier in the week. "We're very disappointed. Ultimately, it falls on the players. We didn't execute the game, either of the three games. It's very disheartening." That sounds like a man who has given up on the season. QB Mark Sanchez looked decent at times this season, but a closer look reveals some more glaring weaknesses, the oft-maligned pivot has 14 turnovers in eight games. New York could care less about the Eagles’ issues though, this is a team clearly driven right now to finish the season strong, the late surge has likely saved coach Tom Coughlin’s job. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. were on the same page in last week’s 37-27 win at St. Louis, the young receiver would finish with 148 yards and two scores on eight catches. New York would lose 27-0 in the first game vs. Philadelphia: "Sure, we have something to prove," right tackle Justin Pugh said. "We didn't score at all the first time." Manning was particularly effective last week, he was 25 of 35 for 391 yards and three TD’s with no INT’s and his 148.8 rating was the highest of his career (also note that Manning needs just one more win for 100 victories for his career). In my opinion, Sanchez will have to have the game of his career for Philadelphia to score the upset and I simply don’t see that happening, play on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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12-22-14 | BYU +2 v. Memphis | Top | 48-55 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on BYU. As you can guess by the point-spread, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I ultimately think that the Cougars proficiency on the offensive end will prove to be too much for the Tigers and look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Both teams come in with plenty of momentum, Memphis has won six straight games and has to be enjoying the lime light right now, it’s the team’s first bowl game since 1998. BYU comes in having won four straight games and six of its last nine bowl appearances and will be eager to atone for last year’s 31-16 loss to Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl. This is a classic matchup of strength vs. strength, as BYU sports a high-scoring offense vs. Memphis’ stingy defensive unit. The Cougars average 36 points and 463 yards per game, while the Tigers are giving up just 17.1 points and 343 yards per game: “We don’t overlook a team," said BYU receiver Jordan Leslie earlier in the week. "When you look at their defense, it is a top-ranked defense. I mean, that’s a challenge for us. Our defense looking at their offense is just as much of a challenge. You can’t look at the name-brand of a team, because any team any year can be successful. They are 9-3 and their losses are against ranked teams and Houston. That’s a tough schedule. To have an opportunity to go 10-3 - that’s a great team." I think we’re getting great value here though, I am expecting BYU to set the tone early and it will be hard for Memphis to play catchup. In this case, great offense trumps great defense in my opinion, grab as many points as you can with BYU. AAA Sports |
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12-21-14 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets +11 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 157 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets. While I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the home side comes to play today as I’m expecting the Jets to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Pats would wrap up the AFC East last week and while they still need two wins to ensure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, I do believe this contest sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the visitors. New York plays with revenge as well after falling 27-25 in New England back on October 16th. In fact, four of New York’s last five in the series have been decided by three points or fewer and the Jets won last season’s meeting in the Big Apple 30-27 in overtime. When you take a closer look at the numbers, it’s almost impossible to believe that New York hasn’t actually taken one of these contests as the Jets have held the Patriots to an average of just 283.3 yards and 22.3 points per game over the last three. The Jets have the sixth-ranked defense and are especially strong against the run, limiting the opposition to just 87.5 yards for the fourth-lowest average in the NFL. New York’s biggest issue is with offensive consistency, but through all of the tumult this season, the Jets’ run game has remained a bright spot, the unit has gained 166.6 YPG since the setback to the Patriots. And note that the Jets come in with some momentum and confidence as well after betting Tennessee 16-11 last Sunday, QB Geno Smith has two TD’s and two INT’s over his last three games. Note that New England is already just 1-2 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records, while New York is 2-0 ATS in its last two as an underdog of 10 points or more. When taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the JETS as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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12-14-14 | Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -10 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 129 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Kansas City Chiefs. For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done here and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Despite losing three in a row, the Chiefs are still very much alive in the AFC playoff hunt. That said, the team can’t lose anymore and certainly will need to start building momentum if it has any chance of making a legitimate postseason run. Who better to face than the lowly Raiders then? This is also a revenge game after Oakland upset Kansas City for its first victory of the season a few weeks back. KC is one of five 7-6 teams still in the mix for the conference’s two wild-card spots which are currently occupied by the Steelers at 8-5 and the Chargers at 8-5 as well. Note that the Chiefs visit Pittsburgh next and then close the season vs. San Diego, which obviously puts added emphasis onto today’s contest. Oakland would promptly lose 52-0 at St. Louis after the victory over the Chiefs, but then rebounded for a 24-13 victory over the 49ers last week, but note that the Raiders are 2-20 away from home over the last three seasons and 0-6 so far this year. For me, this is simply a great situational play. After their win over KC, the Raiders immediately had a letdown in the loss to the Rams, I definitely am expecting the same thing here. KC is clearly motivated on a number of different levels, all signs do indeed point to the CHIEFS as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-14-14 | Miami Dolphins +9 v. New England Patriots | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -125 | 129 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Dolphins. For a number of different reasons I think the Fish can keep this one close enough to at the very least, sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch which what I believe to be a healthy amount of points afforded to them. I jumped on this line right when it came out and got 9, it’s since come down a bit from that, but I still really love this selection regardless. Both teams come into this game highly motivated, Miami needs an outright win to keep its playoff hopes alive, while a victory for the home side will wrap up the division title. New England would survive a 23-14 effort in San Diego last week, bouncing back from a 26-21 loss at Green Bay the week before. But with cream puffs at the Jets next week and then at home to the Bills to end the year, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side “looking ahead” to those games. And that’s just the situational factor that Miami (and us!) is looking to take advantage of here. This is the second game between the two divisional rivals, Miami actually won 33-20 back on September 7th, Pats’ QB Tom Brady was 29 of 56 for 249 yards, while also losing two fumbles. Miami comes in motivated after last Sunday’s 28-13 setback to Baltimore: "I have a lot of faith and confidence in these guys," Dolphins coach Joe Philbin said earlier in the week. "We've got a huge challenge this week going up to New England. I told them in the locker room, we're going to find out a lot this week." Miami’s defense has been suspect the last few weeks but gets a big boost today with the expected return of Cortland Finnegan. And from a trend based stand point, this is about as strong a play as you could possibly ask for, note that the Dolphins are 4-2 ATS their last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while the Patriots are just 1-2 ATS vs. division opponents this season and only 6-8 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to MIAMI as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams -3.5 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -108 | 65 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC WEST GAME OF MONTH on the St. Louis Rams. For a number of different reasons, I like the surging home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Arizona is still clinging atop the NFC standings, but has definitely shown some cracks in the armor of late, one of which is its play on the road, losing its last two straight away from friendly confines. The Cardinals have been getting the job done with tough defensive play, as the offense has sputtered in recent weeks and simply put, I believe this fact will be the difference in the outcome of tonight’s contest. St. Louis will be looking to become the first team in 38 years to shut out three straight opponents. Since beating the Rams 31-14 on November 9th, Arizona has just four offensive TD’s in four games; QB Drew Stanton has thrown five INT’s in that span. Also note that the Cards are down top rusher Andre Ellingon, who was placed on season-ending injured reserved earlier this week. It’s hard not to imagine the Cardinals looking ahead to their game vs. Seattle next week as well, as remember, Arizona fell 19-3 in Seattle on November 23rd. This is as strong a “situational” play as you could possibly ask for. St. Louis is streaking, it’s outscored Oakland and Washington 76-0 over the last two weeks. St. Louis has dominated two pathetic teams in a row, but note that it’s won three straight in front of the home town crowd, beating Seattle 28-26 and holding Denver to its lowest point total of the season in a 22-7 win in the process. QB Shaun Hill has been pivotal, he’s completed 62 percent of his passes with six TD’s and two INT’s while starting the last four games. Note that Arizona is already 0-2 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while St. Louis is 2-1 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, all signs do indeed point to ST. LOUIS as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Falcons +13 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 188 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on the Atlanta Falcons. For a number of different situational, motivational and trend based reasons, I think that the visitors can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. One of the biggest reasons is “motivation.” Atlanta will be in firm control of the NFC South with an outright victory today and because of that, I am expecting the Falcons to give it their absolute best shot across the board. Obviously it’s not going to be easy, but when also taking into account that the Falcons do in fact come in with considerable momentum in having won three of their last four, this selection becomes stronger. The visitors are also expected to welcome back star WR Roddy White, who sat out last week with a minor ankle injury. And finally, I think that when you take into account that the Falcons are 3-1 ATS in their last four Monday Night contests and that the Packers are just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year and 5-10 ATS in the same position over the last two, that there is no doubt that ATLANTA is the sharp move in this contest. AAA Sports |
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12-07-14 | New England Patriots v. San Diego Chargers +3.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 165 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Diego Chargers. Philip Rivers is 0-5 vs. Tom Brady and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question tonight, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the home side takes this one down to the wire. The Patriots had their seven-game win streak snapped in last week’s 26-21 loss at Green Bay and I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot: “We've never played this Patriot team," Rivers said earlier in the week. "We're 0-0 against this group. There's a lot of guys in that locker room that have never played the Patriots in their life. You can't really say this team is 1-5 against them." Rivers is on fire this year and I think will be the difference. Surely he’s going to be motivated to finally get off the schneid vs. Brady, but he comes into this contest with an AFC-best 69.1 completion percentage and enters after his sixth three-TD performance of the season in last week’s thrilling 34-33 win at Baltimore (I had the Bolts in that one!). Obviously it won’t be easy vs. a determined Brady, who is also enjoying a resurgent season, but note that New England is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this year and only 9-12 ATS in its last 21 away from friendly confines. And note that San Diego has excelled in this spot for bettors, it’s 4-2 ATS this year as the underdog and 3-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the CHARGERS as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +2.5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -100 | 157 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL ATS DESTRUCTION on the Washington Redskins. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I believe the home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. St. Louis is coming off a 52-0 win over Oakland last Sunday and suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot. Conversely, the Redskins have not given up on the season and will be hungry for a victory here. It’s a perfect “situation” for us to exploit. Even during a 4-3 stretch, the Rams have remained pretty medicore offensively, their 348 yards vs. the Raiders was a season high. St. Louis has been leaning heavily on the run game, but Washington actually ranks ninth against it, limiting its opposition to 102.8 YPG, while the defense ranks 11th overall. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into victories for the Redskins. Yet! Certainly the home side’s defensive unit will be extra motivated here after allowing Andrew luck to throw for a season-high 487 yards in Sunday’s 49-27 loss in Indianpolis: “They've got to go out and make some plays," Redskins coach Jay Gruden said earlier in the week. "We need leaders to stand up defensively and take them by the throat, make sure they are playing fast." A bright spot for Washington last week though was the play of QB Colt McCoy who was 31 of 47 for 392 yards and three TD’s; McCoy has thrown just one INT in three games and his 1.1 INT percentage is among the best in the league. To say McCoy is motivated would be an understatement I think: "The most important thing is to find a way to get a win," McCoy told reporters on Thursday. "We're going back home this week, so I'll put my best foot forward and keep going." Despite last week’s offensive outburst, the Rams for the most part have been a work in progress on that side of the ball, QB Shaun Hill has started the last three games, while he was 13 of 22 for 183 yards and two TD’s last week, he had gone 18 of 35 for 198 yards, a TD and two INT’s for a 54.2 rating the previous game in a loss at San Diego. Note that St. Louis is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine when playing the role of favorite, while Washignton is 5-4 ATS in its last nine as a home dog of 3 points or less. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to WASHINGTON as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Fresno State v. Boise State -20.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Boise State. For a number of different reasons I like the Broncos to put their foot on the gas and to pull away down the stretch for the convincing SU/ATS victory. A win today and Boise State will punch its ticket to a New Year’s Day bowl, definitely added incentive which we can take advantage of. The Broncos certainly come in with momentum, they’ve won seven straight, including a 37-27 home victory over Fresno State back on October 17th. Home field advantage can’t be overlooked here either in my opinion. Note that Boise State has averaged 53.2 points in five games since defeating the Bulldgos and is coming off an epic 50-19 beatdown of Utah State last week, RB Jay Ajayi ran for 229 yards and five TD’s. Fresno State would start the season 0-3 and got back to .500 before again losing three in a row, but would then win three straight to clinch the conference’s West Division with last week’s 28-21 win over Hawaii, finishing 6-6 overall. While the Bulldogs have looked much better of late, they certainly aren’t on the same level as the Broncos and I think the visitors will have a lot of trouble containing Ajayi, who ranks third in the country in yards from scrimmage per game at 179.6 (note that Freno State ranks 10th in the 12-team conference in giving up 468.9 yards from scrimmage). In every way this is a mismatch, in my opinion this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on BOISE STATE. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Florida State -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Florida State. For a number of different reasons I think that FSU will put it all together today and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It hasn’t been an easy year for the Seminoles and they’ve dropped a couple places in the College Football Playoff rankings after some lackluster efforts, but I think that FSU can knock off the No. 12 Yellow Jackets today and punch its ticket to the playoffs as it tries to defend its national championship. It’s not easy to win every single game, but guess what? Florida State just completed its first back-to-back undefeated regular seasons in school history after last week’s 24-19 victory over Florida last Saturday. Beating the Yellow Jackets won’t be easy, GT has won five in a row including a 30-24 victory over Georgia in its regular season finale. The Yellow Jackets will try to confuse the Seminoles with their triple-option offense, but FSU has done pretty well against run-heavy teams in Florida, Boston College and Miami already. The only question for me is whether or not QB Jameis Winston will be ready to go today or not, and after carefully analyzing the situation, I firmly believe he will. Despite a couple of shaky efforts, note that Florida State is 3-2 ATS in its last five neutral field games, while Georgia Tech is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU victories. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to FLORIDA STATE as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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12-06-14 | Missouri v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 86 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE DESTRUCTION on Alabama. I chose Alabama to win the SEC this year. For a number of different reasons, I think the Tide will roll today, pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. With a victory Alabama will punch its ticket to the inaugural NCAAF Playoff, added incentive for the Tide after last year’s disappointing end: “I think we have an outstanding league and we have a lot of good teams and the fact that we play each other and end up beating each other probably hurts a little bit," Alabama coach Nick Saban said earlier in the week. "I think some of the teams in our division are really, really good teams and I'm sure there are some other really good teams out there that I have not seen. Without looking at everyone, I would think that somebody in our league qualifies to be one of the better four teams in the country based on the quality of the league and the good teams that we all have to play." Alabama comes in with momentum as well after beating No. 15 Auburn 55-44 last Saturday. Missouri would secure its spot in the title game with a hard-fought 21-14 victory over Arkansas last Friday. Alabama is known for its tough defensive play, but after last weeks’ shootout, there’s no question that this is a Tide team which can move the ball quickly; expect Alabama to run the no-huddle: "I think it's scary for them," Tide safety Nick Perry said. "Usually `Bama beats you with defense and running the ball. Now, we can play a whole different type of game. We can put up points or we can shut them down with defense. I think that's scary for other teams." QB Blake Sims has 2,988 passing yards and not surprisingly, the Tide rank 21st nationally in passing offense with an average of 282.6 per game. Missouri didn’t look overly impressive in its victory last weekend as it fell behind 14-3 in the second quarter and then managed to claw back with 18 unanswered points. Also note that the Tigers were destroyed 59-42 in last year’s SEC championship game vs. Auburn, a team which the Tide just handled. To walk the heavenly streets of gold, you have to know the password: Roll Tide Roll! With a chance to cement its unquestionable dominance over the SEC once again, I like ALABAMA to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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12-05-14 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 51-17 | Win | 100 | 116 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER on Northern Illinois. For a number of different reasons I believe that Northern Illinois will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover and the MAC Championship title. This is a revenge game for NIU after Bowling Green took last season’s crown. Neither of these teams are the same ones from last year, but somehow each managed to navigate through the regular season to this point; note that BG finished 7-5 overall and 5-3 in conference, while NIU was 10-2 overall and 7-1 in league play. Bowling Green got the job done with tough defensive play in 2013, but the unit has slipped to below average in the MAC, which I believe will spell doom today vs. this explosive Huskies offense. Also note that Bowling Green QB Matt Johnson, who threw for five TD’s in last year’s Championship game, obviously won’t be participating today after he was lost in the first outing of the year vs. Western Kentucky. Northern Illinois couldn’t get the job done last year with QB Jordan Lynch, but the Huskies have gotten progressively better on both sides of the ball as the season has worn on and I believe will prove to be just too much for the Falcons to repeat this year. Note that NIU ranks fifth in the MAC in total scoring offense and fourth in total scoring defense. The Huskies have also allowed the least sacks in the conference and have produced the third most overall; NIU is also second in third-down conversion percentage and first in turnover differential. Northern Illinois QB Drew Hare had some pretty big shoes to fill, but he’s thrown for 15 TD’s vs. a single INT has posted seven rushing major scores as well. Bowling Green made it back to the championship game by posting a 5-0 record vs. MAC East opposition, which is considered much weaker than the West (note that the Falcons were 0-3 vs. MAC West competition this season). As mentioned off the top, I think the difference will be BG’s inefficiences on the defensive end, it finished the year at the bottom of the MAC in pass defense, 10th in run defense and 12th in total defense. The Falcons’ offense is third overall in the MAC, but there’s no question that NIU can match pace with this team. Note that Northern Illinois is 4-2 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Bowling Green is just 1-2 ATS this season off a loss vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AAA Sports |
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11-30-14 | San Diego Chargers +4.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 34-33 | Win | 100 | 130 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Diego Chargers. The visitors come into this game as a large underdog and I feel they are getting well undervalued despite a good chance to win this game outright. In a close game, I recommend taking as many points as you can. The Chargers come in hot off two straight home wins over Oakland and St. Louis. The offense has struggled for the Chargers over the past few games but is starting to show some signs of life after putting up 27 points against a good Jeff Fisher led defense in the Rams. Philip Rivers was 29 of 35 for 291 yards, but it was the rushing attack that experienced the greatest awakening. Ryan Matthews led the way with 105 yards rushing on just 12 carries in his second game back. The Chargers team is starting to resemble the team we saw last season make a run at the end to earn a wild card spot thanks to good efforts as underdogs. I expect them to continue their run of good play here. Meanwhile, the home side Baltimore is also coming off two wins in row. The most recent was an impressive road win under the lights of Monday Night Football in New Orleans. Suffice to say, I am anticipating a letdown after winning on the big national stage. The Ravens will also have the disadvantage of a short work week to prepare for the Chargers in this spot. Philip Rivers really is the key in this game and I anticipate a big game from him as he goes up against a Ravens defense that ranks just 29th (264.6) against the pass in the entire league. We can’t forget a 16-13 game between these two teams last season in southern California that the Ravens managed to pull out. The Chargers will go for revenge as the underdog. Keep in mind they have been a profitable 14-10 as the underdog the past three seasons. With a close heavily contested game very likely here, all signs point to the CHARGERS as the smart move here. AAA Sports |
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11-29-14 | San Jose State +13.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST SIDE DESTRUCTION on San Jose State. San Diego State is 6-5 and is bowl eligible. At 3-8, the Spartans will just be playing for pride today. The last time these teams met, SDSU would have to hold on for a 34-30 victory and I firmly believe that we’ll see a similar outcome in this one and will therefore recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Spartans have lost five straight, but with QB Mitch Ravizza set to make his first collegiate start, I think the visitors come to play today; this is Ravizza’s audition for him to earn a role next year. Ravizza’s playbook should be a bit bigger this week as well and I think can catch the Aztecs off guard (note that San Jose State is actually fifth in the conference in total offense). The chances of SDSU advancing to the Mountain West championship game are pretty slim, not only does it have to win today, but it also has to hope that Hawaii upsets Fresno State. From a situational stand point, this selection is as solid as it gets. And from a trend based angle, the play gets even stronger as note that San Jose State is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while SDSU is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the same points range. In my opinion, this is a few too many points to be giving up, play on SAN JOSE STATE. AAA Sports |
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11-27-14 | TCU -6.5 v. Texas | Top | 48-10 | Win | 100 | 64 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on TCU. No. 6 TCU is coming off a close victory against lowly Kansas before its bye week and must win and win big to impress for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The 9-1 Horned Frogs dropped from No. 4 to No. 5 in the CFP rankings after having to rally from a 10-point deficit vs. the Jayhawks for a 34-30 win on November 15th. So, barring a string of major upsets, TCU needs to close the regular season in dominant form to have a chance to get back into the top four (after today’s game it plays Iowa in its finale on December 6th): "Our job is to keep our nose down and to finish the journey. That's what we're trying to get accomplished," coach Gary Patterson assessed earlier in the week. TCU is also gunning for a Big 12 title, competing with Baylor and K-State and to keep its five game win skein in tact, it will have to end Texas’ three-game win streak. Texas comes in off a 28-7 win over Oklahoma State on November 15th, becoming bowl eligible under first year head coach Charlie Strong. The Longhorns have certainly looked pretty good over the last month, but I think will run into a buzzsaw here, the Horned Frogs have one of the Big 12’s most dynamic offensive units, led by Trevone Boykin. In fact, TCU’s 45.9 PPG trail only Baylor’s 50.0 in the FBS, and its whopping 541.6 YPG ranks it in the Top five. Note that this also sets up as a revenge game for TCU after it had to deal with poor weather conditions, which caused a delay of almost four-hours, in a 30-7 home loss to the Longhorns back on October 26th, 2013. As good as Texas has been in November, the situational factors are clearly working in TCU’s favor; note that the Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this year and 5-1 ATS in their last six following a bye week. And note that Texas is just 2-3 ATS at home this season and a poor 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off a win vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, all signs point to a blowout, play on TCU. AAA Sports |
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11-25-14 | Ohio -2 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ohio. The Battle of The Bricks gets ready to renew tonight, the Miami RedHawks are going to be honoring 13 seniors, but when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I look for the Bobcats to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. If history is any precedence, then Ohio has to be loving its chances today as it’s won seven of the last eight in the series. The ramifactions of these two teams meeting this year is not overly consequential, but at 5-6, the Bobcats still desperately need one more win to become bowl eligible for the sixth straight season. The RedHawks would love to play spoiler obviously, but I simply can’t see the team being able to handle OU’s running attack, AJ Ouellette leads Ohio with seven TD’s and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts. QB Derrius Vick is a dual threat and that spells bad news for Miami Ohio, which has struggled all season with mobile pivots. In fact, the RedHawks have gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on, allowing an average of 245 rushing yards in November. Miami is a tough team at home and has a dangerous passing attack, but the situational edge still definitely lies with the visitors. From a trend based stand point, the Bobcats also get the nod; note that Ohio is already 3-1 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite, while Miami Ohio is just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. I’m laying the short points, play on the BOBCATS. AAA Sports |
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11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Baltimore Ravens. I think the visitors are getting severely undervalued in this spot and while I do believe the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Home field advantage has been anything but for the Saints this year, they come into tonight’s game having lost two straight in New Orleans. Two weeks ago it was a 27-24 OT setback to San Fran, last week was a 27-10 loss to Cincinnati. Note that the home side will be down two starters today in receiver Brandin Crooks and safety Rafael Bush as well. Baltimore, like New Orleans, is in a divisional race of its own and ended a two-game slide with a 21-7 victory over Tennessee on November 9th, its bye-week coming at a fantastic time as the team has been able to heal up and focus for the final push: “Players took some time off and kind of emotionally and physically recharged a little bit," Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh said earlier in the week. "You don't realize how exhausted you are until you get a chance to take a deep breath and relax." RB Justin Forsett had a big game vs. the Titans, he rushed for 112 yards and two TD’s on 20 carries; and that doesn’t bode well for New Orleans as it is allowing 4.8 YPC and 146.3 RYP game over the last three weeks. Also note that the Saints have struggled against the pass virtually all year, ranking 24th at 255.2 YPG and they’re also tied for the fifth-fewest takeaways. The Ravens are equally as inept against the pass, but note that Baltimore is 3-0 ATS in non-conference games this year and 3-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records. And note that the Saints are already 0-2 ATS this year in non-conference games and just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. All signs point to the RAVENS as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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11-24-14 | NY Jets +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the New York Jets. A great situational play as the Jets are finally coming off a convincing win and don’t even have to play the Bills in Buffalo; this is also a “revenge spot” after Buffalo annihilated New York earlier in the season. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The storm in Buffalo forced the Bills to miss practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. Note that Buffalo had last weekend off following a listless 22-9 loss at Miami on November 13th, the second straight setback has all but eliminated the team from playoff contention. Buffalo QB Kyle Orton was shaky in the game, completing 22 of 39 passes for 193 yards, failing to get the Bills into the endzone and also suffering a toe injury in the process. The Jets have a “new” QB under center as well as Mike Vick will once again get the start here, New York posted 275 total yards of offense in beating Pittsburgh 20-13 in Week 10 before entering its bye. Note that the Jets are 6-5 ATS in their last 11 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Buffalo is already 1-4 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite. All signs do indeed point to NEW YORK as the savvy move here. AAA Sports |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks. Here’s a huge divisional battle, Arizona is the best team not only in the competitive NFC West, but also in the NFL. The defending champions have struggled for the most part this year, but when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for the home side to take care of business and send the Cardinals a resounding message. This is also a revenge game for Seattle after Arizona handed the Seahawks their only home loss in 2013. Arizona has won six straight since losing to Denver in Week 5 and has continued its success despite some offensive issues, most notably in losing QB Carson Palmer to season-ending knee injury in Week 10; so far Drew Stanton has been decent, he’s now 3-1 as a starter this year. The Cards are coming off a 14-6 win over Detroit last week. Note that star WR Larry Fitzgerald suffered a sprained MCL on Sunday. I think that Arizona is going to be overwhelmed today though, the one two running punch of Marshawn Lynch and QB Russell Wilson is a formidable one. From a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this is a sound play as well, note that Arizona is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9 points range, while Seattle is a perfect 7-0 ATS its last seven as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I think the Cardinals numerous injuries on the offensive side of the ball finally catch up to them here and the home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on SEATTLE. AAA Sports |
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11-22-14 | Colorado +32.5 v. Oregon | Top | 10-44 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Colorado. I think the Buffs can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with what I feel is a healthy amount of points they’ve been afforded here. Marcus Mariota and the Oregon Ducks are inching their way closer in reaching the College Football Playoffs, but I think come in a bit complacent as the team enjoys senior day and all the festivities and hype surrounding the event. Note that Oregon has already clinched a spot in the Pac-12 title game and is currently ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings. I’m not going to try and convince you that Colorado is a good team, obviously it’s horrible, but I do think this a prime situational play and this is way too many points to be giving up. Note that Mariota is likely going to be forced to work with a new center today as Hroniss Grasu suffered a leg injury in the Ducks’ 51-27 win at then No. 20 Utah on November 8th. Also note that Oregon will be without the services of TE Pharaoh Brown, who was injured in the Utah win as well. Colorado is unsure at this point who will get the start under center, but one man to keep your eyes on is Nelson Spruce, the WR is tied for fourth in the country with 11 TD receptions and is seventh overall with 1,091 yards. One thing we can count on today from the Buffs while they’re on offesnse is a steady dose of the run game, not only because they are averaging 172.9 yards per contest in Pac-12 contests (good enough for third in the conference), but also so as to limit Oregon’s time of possession. Note, already 4-3 ATS this year as an underdog, Colorado is also 4-3 ATS vs. conference opponents. And note that Oregon is already 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite of 31 points or more this season and just 5-6 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, all signs point to COLORADO as the sharp move here. AAA Sports |
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11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +9 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oakland Raiders. While I won’t go so far as to call for its first win of the season, I do think that Oakland will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and like the Raiders to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points afforded to them here. Talk about two teams moving in opposite directions. The Chiefs have postseason aspirations and can ill afford a letdown here as they look to notch their sixth straight win. The Raiders are looking to avoid a 17th straight loss. KC is coming off a 24-20 win over Seattle and I think is primed for a letdown here. A short week on national television after beating the defending champs, I think Oakland can take advantage. Also note, this is a “look ahead” spot as well as Kansas City will play the Broncos in a revenge scenario under the lights in front of the home town crowd next week. KC is not unaware of the fact that this is a “trap” game, but despite how much teams say they are prepared for these types of contests, invariably they’re not. Think about it. You just beat the defending champs, a few days later you have to play the absolute dregs of the league while looking ahead to a prime time matchup vs. an arch nemesis. From a situational standpoint, it doesn’t get much better than this. It hasn’t been all doom and gloom for Oakland either, it’s actually allowed just 12 sacks this year, which ranks second fewest in the league. And that’s good news for the continued development of rookie Derek Carr, who has shown flashes of his College brilliance at times this year. Last week Carr was 16 of 24 for 172 yards in a chess match loss with San Diego. And to say this is a “revenge” game for Oakland would obviously be a massive understatement. A fantastic situational dual spot wager, play on OAKLAND. AAA Sports |
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11-18-14 | UMass v. Akron -7 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Akron. This is a must-win game for Akron as it stil has bowl hopes, it’s coming off four straight SU losses and six straight ATS setbacks. Suffice it to say, I think the Zips take care of business at home tonight. Conversely, Massachusetts will not be going to a bowl game unless it sweeps out and gets some help, and while it’s won three of its last four SU, it’s been a covering machine all year, it comes into this contest having covered six-straight games. While Akron would secure the 14-13 win over UMass last season, it failed to cover the 7 point spread and this fact makes today’s play even stronger in my opinion. For the most part I am a situational handicapper, but one of the other main factors that I like to take advantage of are lop-sided trends and numbers and in this case, there’s no question that all signs point to Akron has the savvy move here. And from a trend based stand point, this play is super strong as well, not that Massachusetts is 12-14 ATS in its last 26 when playing with six or less days rest, while Akron is 8-7 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU losses. As I’ve mentioned many times already, I think this is a great situational play on AKRON. AAA Sports |
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11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 109 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC SUPER-BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech. Duke is 8-1 overall and 4-1 in league play, while Virginia Tech is 4-5 overall and 1-4 in conference action. While the Hokies will not be competing for the conference crown, they are still bowl hopeful, meaning that every game from this point on is almost a must win and it’s because of this fact that I think they’ll keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I think this will be a one possession game in the end, this sets up perfectly as a letdown spot for Duke I think. This is the opener of a three-game home stand for the Blue Devils vs. teams that are a combined 10-17 right now. "They're for real," Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer said yesterday. "Certainly for real." But as I like to say, desperation breeds motivation and this also sets up as a revenge game for the Hokies after Duke came into Lane Stadium to win 13-10 last year. I also think that Duke gets caught looking ahead to rival North Carolina on Thursday night, which will end the run of three games in a 13-day span for the home side. The visitors have something to build off, VT would outscore BC 21-10 in the final frame on November 1st, but it would not be enough in the 33-31 finale (you’ll remember that I had the OVER in that contest). Note that the Hokies have not dropped four straight in the ACC since joining the confernece in 2004 and have never lost five ACC games in a single season: “I hate losing," VT senior wide receiver Willie Byrn said earlier in the week. "The way it will be salvaged is if we learn something from it. I hate hearing people saying we're going to be great next year. The seniors put so much work into it." And note that Virginia Tech is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. I think the conditions are definitely right for the HOKIES to escape with at least an ATS cover today. AAA Sports |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina -1 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on East Carolina. I played this game the moment it came out and got a favorable -1 line, it’s climbed since then, however I still love it. East Carolina will look to move back atop the AAC on Friday after its five-game winning streak was snapped to Temple on November 1st, losing five fumbles and committing 12 penalties in a sloppy, windy and rainy 20-10 road setback. It was a freak loss, if we dig a little deeper we see that there is some definite room to read between the lines as the Pirates would outgain the Owls by 293 yards and collect 30 first downs compared to Temple’s 10. Cincinnati on the other hand would trash Tulane 38-14 on October 31st and has three straight wins of at least 17 points (note though that it’s come over teams in the bottom half of the conference). Ultimately though, I think after their last debacle that the Pirates come to play today, QB Shane Carden was held to a season-low 217 yards and was held without a TD throw for the first time since last year’s regular-season finale. For the home side, starting QB Gunner Kiel is still injured, meaning that Munchie Legaux will earn another start today. Legaux likes to get out of the pocket and run when he can, but note that East Carolina ranks eighth in the FBS in run defense and has held its last six opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing. Note that East Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two seasons off a loss vs. a conference foe, while Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing the role of underdog. I look for Carden and company to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover, play on EAST CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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11-11-14 | Toledo +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Toledo. These teams are pretty evenly matched, I think it’s going to come down to a one score outcome and therefore definitely feel that the value lies in grabbing the points. Toledo is bowl eligible at 6-3 but will look to keep the momentum rolling, seeking a third straight victory today. While the Rockets have been winning, note they haven’t been covering; suffice it to say, I think that changes this week. Toledo is coming off a 7 point win over Massachusetts and a 10 point victory over Kent State. NIU is 7-2 and has won three-straight. The Huskies employ a run-first offense, Cameron Stingily has 625 yards on the ground with eight TD’s. QB Drew Hare can also get out of the pocket. NIU is one dimensional on offense, while Toledo is much more balanced, the team averages 250 on the ground and another 250 through the air, averaging a whopping 34 PPG. The Rockets are led by QB Logan Woodside who has 1,700 yards and 14 major score. Toledo has faced some incredibily stiff competition out of conference, which makes them that much more dangerous in MAC play in my opinion. From a trend based stand point, this is definitely a solid play, note that Toledo is 6-4 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Northern Illinois is already 1-2 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival. Obviously I feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can with TOLEDO. AAA Sports |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -135 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Carolina Panthers. For a number of different reasons I believe the Panthers can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Philadelphia Eagles would beat Houston 31-21 last Sunday and that victory coupled with the Cowboys 28-17 home loss to Arizona catupulted them into first place in the NFC East. But note, the win came at a big price as starting QB Nick Foles was lost with a broken clavicle. That means that oft-maligned Mark Sanchez will be under center for the home side; he’d finish 15 of 22 for 202 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s in place of Foles. The Eagles will also have to play without MLB DeMeco Ryans for the rest of the year after he tore his achilles on Sunday. Also note that RG Todd Herremans is also gone for the year with injury. Carolina has an opportunity to regain the division lead with an outright upset win today after the Saints lost in OT to the San Francisco 49ers. The 3-5-1 Panthers are still very optimistic: "I've been in a race like this before, we all have," coach Ron Rivera said earlier in the week. "It ends up being the team that comes back, that gets up and keeps fighting. The next thing you know, you're right in the thick of things." Note that the Panthers benefit from the expected return of linemen Amini Silatholu, Trai Turner and Byron Bell after all three sat with injuries to the Saints; and that’s obviously great news for QB Cam Newton, who is coming off a career-worst effort in the setback to New Orleans. Note though that Newton threw for 306 yards and two TD’s and ran for 52 with a pair of scores in a 30-22 win at Philadelphia back in 2012. Also note that Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range and 5-3 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while the Eagles are just 7-8 ATS their last 15 vs. teams with losing records and only 2-4 ATS their last six as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range. You may want to also consider “sprinkling a little” on the money line as well, in my opinion all signs point to the PANTHERS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-09-14 | San Francisco 49ers +5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 132 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers. Desperation breeds motivation, San Francisco has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian at others, but I think has a real shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are at 4-4. New Orleans though comes in a bit complacent I think today, its back to back wins have propelled it into first in the week division. San Francisco on the other hand has dropped two straight and finds itself three games behind West-leading Arizona and a game back of Seattle. The visitors will be especially motivated here after last week’s ugly 13-10 home loss to division rival St. Louis. QB Colin Kaepernick was sacked eight times last week after being sacked just six times in the first seven games; Kaepernick definitely catches a break this week though vs. this suspect Saints unit. New Orleans comes in off a 28-10 win over Carolina but the victory came at a cost; already down RB’s Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson, FB Austin Johnson was lost due to an injury. San Francisco gets a bit healthier defensively this week though with the expected return of LB Patrick Willis. Note that San Francisco is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two seasons after two or more consecutive SU losses, while New Orleans is just 5-6 ATS the last two years after two or more consecutive SU victories. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to SAN FRANCISCO as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-08-14 | Michigan v. Northwestern -1 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -106 | 139 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on Northwestern. Both teams come in struggling, they have a combined seven total wins and four Big Ten victories. Each is still bowl eligible though and I think the home side comes to play today. While Michigan has won two if its last three, note that both of those victories came at home against weak opponents. The home side definitely comes in desperate, it’s off three straight losses, including a 41-point blowout defeat at Iowa last weekend. Michigan actually has a decent defense, but Northwestern’s offense will benefit greatly today in playing in front of the home town crowd, a place where it’s played well at times this year. Neither of these teams is very good, in fact, they are very evenly matched, but from a trend based angle, this is definitely a solid selection; note that Michigan is already 1-2 ATS on the road this year and 5-8 ATS in the same position over the last two; and note that Northwestern is 12-10 ATS in its last 22 vs. conference opponents. All signs point to a one possession game with NORTHWESTERN coming out on top. AAA Sports |
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11-08-14 | Texas-San Antonio +11 v. Rice | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 134 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS SUPER BLOWOUT on UTSA. While I won’t call for an outright win here, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up and look for the Roadrunners to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think the red hot Rice Owls have a letdown here, just enough of one for the hungry Roadrunners to take advantage of. UTSA is coming off an embarrassing 34-0 setback at home to UTEP. After three straight losses, Rice has now won five straight, most recently a 31-17 decision on the road against FIU. Desperation breeds motivation though and this also sets up as a revenge game after Rice beat UTSA 27-21 in San Antonio last year. I won’t try to convince you that the Roadrunners are a good team, obviously they aren’t, offensively they’ve been a train wreck of late, but I simply feel this is a great situational play. Defensively though UTSA has been stellar, it’s fourth in the conference in total yards and scoring offense (and that is despite losing 34-0 to UTEP last week, still managing to hold the Miners to 351 yards of total offense). And the Owls aren’t one of the best offensive teams in the conference, they average 31.4 PPG, ranking sixth. Defensively the Owls are sound, ranked fifth in the league, but as I said, I think the conditions are right for a mental lapse this weekend; note that UTSA is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 points range, while Rice is 0-1 ATS as a home fave in the same price range. Grab as many point as you can in this one. AAA Sports |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -115 | 143 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State. What’s happened to the Cowboys? Oklahoma State opened the year at No. 15 and has since fallen to an unranked position in the polls after back to back losses. K-State comes into this contest as No. 9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. So can OK State rally here, find a way to get the job done and pull off the upset?! I’m not going to go out on a limb and call for the outright upset here, but I do definitely feel that the Cowboys will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I jumped on the line when it first came out at +14, it’s since dropped, but I still do love this selection. The Cowboys have obviously been struggling, but I think there is room to read between the lines; note that OK State’s defense has in fact been better than anticipated. Creating turnovers, something the team excelled at last year in forcing 2.5 per contest, will be crucial for the visitors to keep this one close. If the Cowboys can force two or three, I feel they do in fact have a very legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Obviously it’s not going to be easy, K-State QB Jake Waters is on a big roll right now. But, the Cowboys have some weapons of their own, receiver James Washington is a game-changer. From a motivational standpoint, this is definitely a big game for OK State; obviously an outright victory would be a huge mental boost for the university, but it would also mean that the team would be come bowl eligible with games vs. Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma remaining. I also believe that this sets up as a bit of a “lookahead” spot for the home side, the team is already bowl eligible and still has to play three ranked teams, ALL of which are on the road. Note Okahoma State is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two years as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while K-State is just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points ranges. Grab as many points as you can, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the COWBOYS. AAA Sports |
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11-01-14 | Florida +13 v. Georgia | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida. I think the Gators keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a revenge scenario, the Bulldogs have won three straight in the series after last year’s 23-20 victory. The Bulldogs will be without the services of RB Todd Gurley of course, it hasn’t mattered of late though as Georgia has rallied for back-to-back victories behind an opportunistic defense. The Gators are reeling, but I think come to play here today, Florida coach Will Muschamp’s job is on the line and desperation often brings out the best in teams and that will be the case today I feel. “It’s a critical game,” Muschamp said earlier in the week. “It’s an East rival. It’s an SEC rival. It’s a rival of the University of Florida. And it’s very important to our university.” The Gators will have to deal with Bulldogs’ QB Hutson Mason, who has been effecient this year with 10 TD’s and three INT’s. RB Nick Chubb has filled in decently for Gurley, averaging 172.5 yards per game in two starts in replacement. The visitors of course will be going with QB Treon Harris, in three career games he’s 12 of 18 for 263 yards and three TD’s with one INT. Harris will be looking early and often to WR Demarcus Robinson who has a team-high 34 catches, 524 receiving yards and four TDs. One other Gators’ player to keep your eyes on today is DE Alex McCalister, who has five tackles for a loss and a team-high four sacks. Note that Florida is 3-2 the last two seasons following a bye week, while Georgia is 1-5 ATS in its last six after two weeks or more of rest. Grab as many points as you can, play on FLORIDA. AAA Sports |
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10-30-14 | Florida State -5.5 v. Louisville | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida State. I played the game early and got -5.5. It’s since come down to -3.5. Regardless, I still really love this play and look for FSU to punch one into the ATS win column tonight. It appears as if RB Karlos Williams will be available for this game, which is good news for the No. 2 Seminoles as they get ready to face the nation’s best defense. Williams leads the Seminoles with 82 carries, 378 rushing yards and seven TDs and he’s still 100% eligible to play in this one. So will this be a distraction for FSU? Hardly in my opinion. This program is used to this type of thing now after Jameis Winston’s issues last year, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has had multiple off-field issues, this team isn’t going to be phased whatsoever. In fact, I think it will be a rallying point this week and think Winston could have one of his most productive contests of the year so far. Louisville is a stout defense, it leads the nation in giving up just 245.8 YPG, but I think will have its hands full with Winston and company. FSU is playing for the first time since its thrilling 31-27 win over then No. 5 Notre Dame on October 18th. "We don't have anything to prove to anybody," said Winston, who is third in the country in completion percentage at 70.6. "We've just got to keep playing and hopefully things will go our way. But one thing we are consistently proving is that we are winners." Louisville has some talent on offense as well in WR DeVante Parker and RB Michael Dyer, but I think they’ll falter today against what I think is an underrated Seminoles defensive unit. I’m laying the points on FLORIDA STATE. AAA Sports |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 190 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Redskins. For a number of different reasons, I like the visitors to keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded. Dallas is 6-1 and is one of the best team’s in the league. Hmm? Even at 6-1, do you feel like the Cowboys are in fact one of the league’s elite? I certainly don’t. RB DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo have been excellent thus far, but I think will finally take a step back here against a determined and hungry Washington team. The league’s top run game has obviously helped the oft-maligned Romo who has an NFL-high 69.2 completion percentage to date. But as I said off the top, I think the Redskins can surprise the home side today, they broke a four-game slide last week with a 19-17 win over Tennesee, backup QB Colt McCoy was inserted in relief of an ineffective Kirk Cousins and was 11 for 13 for 128 yards and a TD. Note, RG III could make an appearance today as well: “I’ve already made the decision. I've said it's going to be Colt," coach Jay Gruden said earlier in the week. "I've said Robert will be the wild card, possibly, if he's ready to go, and that still hasn't been decided yet." This is also a double revenge game after the Cowboys took both divisional contests in 2013. Note that Washington is in fact 8-6 ATS in its last 14 vs. divisional opponents, while Dallas is 0-2 ATS the last two years on MNF and just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 in front of the home town crowd. It’s true that Washington has dropped eight straight to NFC East foes, but streaks (both good and bad), were made to be broken; while I won’t call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to the undervalued visiting side; play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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10-26-14 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -3 | Top | 43-23 | Loss | -100 | 157 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets. While they continue to lose, the Jets are looking much better on both sides of the ball and I think can put it all together today and take advantage of a Bills team which is now trending in the opposite direction; when the final whistle sounds, I like New York to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Buffalo comes in injured on the offensive side of the ball and I think that will be too much for it overcome. Buffalo actually ranked second with 144.2 rushing YPG last year, but the club has dropped to 19th in 2014 and the situation got a lot worst with co-starters Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both going down in last week’s 17-16 home win over the Vikings on Sunday. This is going to put an inordinate amount of pressure on QB Kyle Orton and I like New York to finally take advantage today. After losing 31-0 at San Diego on October 5th and 31-17 to Denver the following week, the Jets took New England down to the wire last week and racked up 423 yards in the process. RB Chris Ivory had 107 rushing yards and a TD and had 98 yards and a second in the most recent meeting with Buffalo, a 37-14 road loss back on November 17th. QB Geno Smith is coming off his best outing of the season, he was 20 of 34 for 225 yards and a TD with zero INT’s. And now Smith has a new target to throw to in Percy Harvin. Note that Buffalo is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons as a road dog of 3 points or less, while New York is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 vs. division opponents. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the JETS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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10-24-14 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -10.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Cincinnati. Neither of these teams are that good, but I think the home side’s passing offense will prove to be too much for the Bulls in the end and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. USF is 3-4, Cincinnati is 3-3. The Bulls are 2-1 in conference while the Bearcarts are 1-1 in league play. This is a “revenge” game as well for Cinncy though as USF pulled off the 26-20 upset last year. USF is coming off a 38-30 road win over Tulsa last week, it was a huge come from behind effort as it trailed 24-7 at halftime. The Bearcats are coming off a 41-3 road win over SMU last week, a victory which snapped a three-game slide. Offensively the Bulls are averageing just 311 yards per game, QB Mike White has completed only 47.6% of his passes for six TD’s and five INT’s. RB Marlon Mack is the focus of the offense, he has 727 yards and eight major scores so far. Note that four defensive players are questionable or out for the Bulls though. And that’s bad news for the visitors I think today; while Cincinnati’s defense is poor, it’s offense is ranked #38 in scoring. QB Gunner Kiel has completed almost 60% of his passes so far for 19 major scores and 6 INT’s. From a trend based angle, this is definitely a solid play as well, note that the Bearcats are 6-3 ATS in their last nine vs. teams with losing records. I think this one turns into a track meet and the pass-happy home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night; play on CINCINNATI. AAA Sports |
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10-19-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New Orleans Saints. The Lions own the league’s best defensive unit, but I think are going to come back down to Earth today vs. a determined Drew Brees and company; while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. And I think the Saints’ defense comes to play today, Detroit’s offense is stalled right now and I think will once again have its hands full this afternoon. Note that Brees is 4-0 as a starter vs. Detroit, completing 75.2 percent of his passes for an average of 379.3 yards with 14 TDs and one INT for a stellar 133.8 rating. While his 7.2 yards per attempt is his lowest mark in four years this season, note that Brees still ranks second in the NFL in averaging 314.8 YPG, not surprisingly then the Saints come in as the No. 2 offense at 442.8. Detroit amassed just 255 yards of offense last week but would still beat the hapless Vikings 17-3 last Sunday. Situationally, this is also a great play for us as New Orleans is coming off its bye following a momentum and confidence building 37-31 home win over the Bucs on October 5th. While New Orleans will likely be without the services of star TE Jimmy Graham again this week, note that they still put a season high for points and yards with 511 in the win over the Bucs without him as well. So while the Saints defense hasn’t been setting any records this year, there’s no question that it catches a break in facing the anemic Lions unit. Note that Detroit is likely to once again be without the services of star receiver Calvin Johnson because of an ankle injury; also note that RB Reggie Bush is still dealing with ankle injury as well. Note that New Orleans is 2-0 ATS the last two seasons following its bye week, while Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory over a division rival. I think Brees has one of his most productive games and his defense follows suit; play on the SAINTS. AAA Sports |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +8 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 156 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oakland Raiders. If you are a long time follower or client of mine, you know that I am primarily a situational handicapper which also likes to take advantage of lop-sided trends and numbers. Yesterday I had a play on North Carolina which was 0-5 ATS vs. Notre Dame which was 4-1 ATS; that was a great cover for me. Here is another such situation, this time on the pro gridiron: San Diego is 5-0 ATS while Oakland is 0-4 SU (just 2-2 ATS). With a week off to prepare for this game, I think the home side comes in focused and catches a complacent Chargers team off-guard, ultimately coming away with at least the ATS cover. San Diego comes in banged up, it’s going to have to start its fourth center after Doug Legursky went down with a knee injury in last Sunday’s 31-0 home win over the Jets. Note that the Bolts also lost backup RB Donald Brown to a concussion (starter Ryan Mathews has been out since Week 2). Slowing down red hot Philip Rivers will be top priority for Raiders’ interim head coach Tony Sporano, the Chargers pivot has thrown for an average of 345.8 yards in his last four road games vs. the Raiders. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game today for the home side to help in trying to limit the time that Rivers is on the field, Sporano has already said he’ll make it a point of emphasis for his team which ranks last in the league. Rookie QB Derek Carr will once again be under center, he was an effecient 16 for 25 for 146 yards, one TD and one INT in the London game. Note that San Diego is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven “October” games, while Oakland is 2-0 ATS the last two season following its bye week. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to OAKLAND as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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10-12-14 | Denver Broncos v. NY Jets +8.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -130 | 153 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets. The panic button has officially been “hit” in New York, I think the desperate Jets keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is a classic case of “David vs. Goliath” as Peyton Manning faces a New York defense which is tied with Jacksonville for the second-most TD’s through the air allowed. The Jets have also managed just one pick so far. Manning posted 479 yards in last week’s 41-20 win over Arizona. New York though does have some positives on the defensive side of the ball, as it’s tied with Buffalo for the league’s most sacks and has allowed just 320.8 YPG, including only 83 on the ground. Of course, that turns the one dimensional Bronco offense even more so; note that Denver ranks 29th in the league in rushing with an average of just 79.5. And note that starting RB Montee Ball has now been lost for a few weeks because of a groin injury. Jets’ coach Rex Ryan knows his job is on the line: "You're right, if that's the case and we don't get this thing on the right track, I don't think for a minute I'll be here," he said on a radio show this week. "I know I won't, but I believe this team will right itself and we'll find a way." Embattled QB Geno Smith will once again get the start despite his horrid first half vs. the Chargers (backup Mike Vick wasn’t much better). Note that Smith will definitely benefit from the expected return of receiver Eric Decker who missed last week with a hamstring issue. It’s important to note, already 0-1 ATS this year in games played on “turf”, Manning and company are just 2-7 ATS their last nine in the same position. And note that New York is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10.5 points range. I am not calling for an outright upset, but do expect the JETS to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on North Carolina. I think UNC can catch Notre Dame a bit complacent here and like it to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Irish come into this game at 5-0 SU. UNC is just 2-3 and will have to start winning some games in a hurry if it has any shot at becoming bowl eligible. Long time clients and followers know that I am primarily a situational handicapper, but that I also like to exploit lop-sided trends and numbers, expecting these anomolies to “naturally correct” themselves. Therefore, it’s important to note that UNC is 0-5 ATS to open the year, while Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS. UNC’s biggest issue has clearly been on the defensive side, but it catches a break here as the Fighting Irish are far from offensive juggernauts. UNC can put some points on the board, it will need to bring it’s “A” game today though vs. the stingy home side’s defensive unit. This also sets up as a classic “look ahead/letdown” spot for the Irish, who won’t be able to help themselves in thinking about next week’s matchup with top-ranked Florida State; this is definitely a crucial situational factor working on our side today as well. I think UNC does keep this one close, its dual-threat QB Marquise Williams will be a difference maker and while I won’t call for an outright upset, I do clearly believe this is way too many points to be giving up; play on NORTH CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 70 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Texans. While the outright win isn’t out of the question in this game, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on what I feel is an undervalued home side. This is a big game for both teams, but obviously Houston will be the hungrier; the Texans are coming off a dreadful 2013/14 season, but with a win tonight can take over sole possession of the AFC South and avoid a fourth consecutive loss in this series. The Texans will once again be leaning heavily on RB Arian Foster who had 157 yards and two TD’s in Sunday’s 20-17 OT loss at Dallas; Foster is second in the league in averaging 101.0 YPG thus far. Note that Foster has been money on the short week of work as well, he’s averaged 5.3 yards per carry while rushing for 343 yards and four TD’s in three “Thursday Night” contests: “It's a huge game for us," Texans’ offensive tackle Duane Brown said last night. "The good thing about the Colts is that we're very familiar with them. Of course you have a different game plan than we've had in years past, but as far as the personnel and things like that we kind of know what to expect. So that makes it a little bit easier, but it's never easy." Indianapolis has won seven straight “Thursday night” games, but I think runs into a buzzsaw today against this talented and revenge minded Texans’ defensive unit. If ever the Colts were going to have a letdown, I think this week qualifies, they’ve been playing at an extremely high level, they’ve outscored their last three opponents 105-47; a quick turn around on the road and a nationally televised divisional contest is asking a lot, even for QB Andrew Luck. Note, the Colts offense has taken a hit as well, as starting guards Hugh Thornton and Jack Mewhort will miss the game with injuries. One other player to keep your eyes on today is the home side’s Andre Johnson who has averaged 158.3 yards while totaling 27 receptions and five TD’s in his last three home games against the Colts. I think the situation favors the home side; play on the TEXANS. AAA Sports |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets +7.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -140 | 134 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on the New York Jets. I jumped on this line when it first hit the board and was able to get 7.5. Most everyone would be able to at least get 7 though. Regardless, I beileve the hungry Jets will keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the backdoor once the final whistle sounds. San Diego is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS so far and I think will come in a little complacent here. If QB Philip Rivers is going to lead his team to a fourth-straight victory, he’ll have to do it by sending the Jets to their longest losing streak in seven years. Note that New York is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS thus far. The Jets lone victory came in Week 1, a 19-14 effort over the Raiders. Obviously New York is going to be the “hungrier” team in this matchup, its season is on the line today, another loss and the Jets will be starting to plan for next year already. The Jets defense has actually been a bright spot and has kept the team in games so far, the unit will have its hands full today with Philip Rivers who owns a league-best 114.5 QB rating; Rivers is coming off his best start of the year in a 33-14 victory over Jacksonville last Sunday. Note though, Rivers got the job done against one of the worst units in the league and covered up for an anemic run game which will once again be without the services of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead; I simply can’t see the home side getting away with that this week vs. this capable Jets front line and secondary which allow a league-low 63.3 rushing yards per game and which rank third in total defense at 291.2. This is also a “do or die” game for New York QB Geno Smith as the fan base has grown restless and would welcome the shift to backup Michael Vick; Smith was 17 of 33 for 209 yards and one TD and one INT in last week’s 24-17 loss to Detroit. Coach Rex Ryan is sticking with his man: "Because I believe in him," Ryan said of his beleagured pivot. "I believe that we're going to get it done and I believe that he's going to be one of the main reasons we get it done and get it turned. I don't anticipate us as a team continuing to struggle. I think this team needs a win in the worst way, and I think that will help us more than anything. We have guys that believe in each other and I think, to a man, that our team believes in Geno." The schedule ahead is an absolute beast as well for the visitors, with games vs. Denver and New England on the horizon, a step in the “right” direction starting this week is a necessity. Is a date on the road against lowly Oakland a reason to “look ahead” this week for San Diego? Probably not, but with a couple of cream puffs back to back, I can’t see how it won’t be a bit complacent today, in my opinion the savvy move is in grabbing as many points as you can in this one; play on the JETS. AAA Sports |
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10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 134 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Broncos. Arizona is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, including having won the last two in a row (both SU and ATS). Denver is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS. The Broncos have had a week off after falling short in a 26-20 OT setback in Seattle two weeks ago. When taking everything into consideration, in my opinion, one of these clubs is over achieving and one is under performing. Suffice it to say, when the smoke finally clears at the end of this one, I look for the home side to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that Arizona is also coming off its bye week. Arizona has been getting the job done with a stout defense which has held the opposition to an average of just 15 PPG, but I think it will finally be exposed today vs. a confident, rested and hungry Peyton Manning. In fact, it’s hard to believe that the Cards are on the verge of a 4-0 start to the season as they’ve been playing with backup QB Drew Stanton who has completed only 51.6 percent of his passes. Denver doesn’t run the ball much, which is good as that’s a strength of the Cardinals. The home side finally gets a boost on the defensive side of the ball with the expected return of Danny Trevathan; Trevathan was the team’s leading tackler last season and has missed the first three games with injury. Manning has dominated at Mile High, he’s thrown 55 TD’s to just eight INT’s in 18 regular-season home games while going 16-2 in the procees. The thin air has been the Cardinals nemesis, they are 0-4 in Denver while getting outscored 106-32. Rejoice Bronco’s fans, this is the break out game you’ve been waiting for this year, look for the home side to lay the hammer down; play on DENVER. AAA Sports |
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10-04-14 | Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Virginia | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -103 | 135 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh. Virginia has covered the spread in every game so far this year but I think will finally come up short here vs. the hungry visiting side; while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one. The Cavaliers are in position to make an early claim as division front-runners after an earlier upset of Louisville and close setbacks to No. 1 UCLA and No. 18 BYU. Virginia is 3-2 SU, including 1-0 in the ACC. Pittsburgh is 3-2 and 1-0 as well. But this sets up as a natural letdown/look ahead spot for Virginia with its bye week on the horizon. Pittsburgh is surely the “hungrier” team as well, it’s coming off back to back loss to Iowa and Akron which dampened its 3-0 start. Note that Virginia is hosting its first “night game” since 2012 here; also note that Pittsburgh beat Virgina 14-3 last season. I simply feel that the opportunistic Cavs defense will finally have its hands full today with Pitt RB James Conner; Conner is second in the nation with 791 rushing yards and leads the country with 135 carries. Another big question mark for Virginia is at QB; note, as of writing the team still has Greyson Lambert listed as questionable because of an ankle injury he suffered vs. BYU two weeks ago. Lambert wasn’t used in last week’s victory against Kent State, as sophomore Matt Johns stepped in and did an adequate job (finished 17 of 28 for 227 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s); in my opinion though, “adequate” won’t cut it today vs. Pittsburgh and if Lambert is able to go, I believe his injury will render him far less than 100%. I’m playing PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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10-04-14 | Kent State +24.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Kent State. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Northern Illinois and like the winless Golden Flashes to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddmakers are leading us to believe. The Huskies return home after a long three game road trip and a bye week. Kent State is is 0-4 and will definitely be the “hungrier” team in this matchup. NIU was embarressed in its last game as well as Arkansas hammered it 52-14. Kent State’s run game is a weak point on offense, meaning it will have to throw the ball today to have any shot at the outright upset. That actually works in our favor, NIU is pretty good against the rush in allowing just 114 YPG. That means we can expect to see a lot of redshirt sophomore QB Colin Reardon who admittedly has been pretty mediocre to this point; Reardon will need some big plays from his receivers, namely James Brooks; Brooks and company have a big opportunity today though as NIU’s weakness on defense is definitely in the secondary, a unit which has already been beaten deep on several occasions this year. Kent State will have to run every now and then to keep the defense honest, look for Reardon to throw the ball to RB Nick Holley on some screens and dump offs. The Huskies definitely looked bad two weeks ago, QB Drew Hare was constantly under pressure and while he did finish with a decent QB rating, he failed to make any big or significant plays when they were needed. However, the entire team looked out of sorts. The Huskies will try to establish the run early and often, but the Golden Flashes are actually pretty good in stopping it. I’m not calling for the outright win today, but this is way too many points to be giving up in my opinion; all signs point to KENT STATE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots offense is stagnant and I expect this team to falter on the road in this hostile environment; while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the home side. The Pats defense has been uncharacteristically carrying the load so far this year, but it will now have to deal with the Chiefs starting RB Jamaal Charles. What’s up with Tom Brady and company? The Pats offense has failed to go over 300 yards in two of three games. Not surprisingly then, Brady ranks 30th in the league with a 5.54 yards per attempt and his poor 82.9 passer rating is 23rd. And get this…Brady is just 1 of 13 attempts of 21 yards or longer downfield thus far. How can the Pats be 3 to 3.5 point favorites in this spot?! It can’t be blamed entirely on the veteran though, his supporting cast is pretty weak, top receiver Julian Edelman leads the team in receptions, TE Rob Gronkowski has been a shell of his former self; also note that Brady’s patchwork offensive line has been a seive thus far in giving up seven sacks. The run game has also failed Brady, it’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL. As mentioned off the top, New England’s offense has definitely picked up the slack, but I think will have its hands full here with a suddently confident and under the radar Chiefs team. QB Alex Smith was 19 for 25 for 186 yards and three TD’s in a 34-15 win at Miami last week. Charles didn’t even play, Knile Davis would go for 132 yards on a career high 32 carries. This game means a lot more to Kansas City as it has to play at San Francisco and then San Diego after this home contest. Note that New England is 7-10 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while KC is already 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year. The situation, the trends and the numbers all point to KANSAS CITY as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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09-28-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +15 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -130 | 157 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Blake Bortles era has arrived in Jacksonville, I think the rookie can do enough to keep this one competitive and look for his team to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. While it won’t be an easy task, I think this does set up as a letdown/look ahead spot for the home side; after a tough 18-17 loss in Arizona to open the season, San Diego would beat Seattle 30-21 in Week 2 and then would hold on for another upset win in Buffalo last Sunday in a 22-10 victory. Dating back to last season the Chargers have now covered five straight. Jacksonville on the other hand has lost six straight, both SU and ATS since last year. Bortles was inserted into last week’s 44-17 loss at Indianapolis at halftime when his team trailed 30-0 and would finish 14 of 24 for 223 yards and two TD’s, as well as 30 yards on two carries. Let’s face it, Jacksonville is a poor team, it had scored one TD in its last 10 quarters before Bortles was forced into action: “It was definitely good to get some game action before you go into the week of practice," Bortles said afterwards. "So I mean kind of taking it one day at a time, try to learn from everything, every experience, situation you get put in and move on." Not surprisingly, this sets up as a revenge game for the visitors who would fall 24-6 at home to San Diego last year. I played the Chargers last week, so far veteran QB Philip Rivers has been pretty good this year, he has five TD’s, no INT’s and a 74.2 completion percentage over his last two games. The visitors catch a break though in facing a depleted Chargers backfield; already without the services of starting RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego lost Danny Woodhead for the year after he suffered a broken leg in the win over Buffalo. That means that Donald Brown, who had 31 carries for just 62 yards last week, and undrafted rookie Branden Oliver will shoulder the load. Also note that Bortles and the offense also catch a break in not having to face LB Manti Te’o, who leads the team in tackles but who fractured his foot last Sunday. Note that Jacksonville is 3-2 ATS in its last five after a loss vs. a division rival and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog of 10 points or more. And note that San Diego is 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite, 0-1 ATS the last two years as a favorite of 10 points or more, just 8-9 ATS its last 17 in front of the home town crowd and a sub-par 6-8 ATS its last 14 vs. teams with losing records. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to JACKSONVILLE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-28-14 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 154 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC SOUTH ART OF WAR on the Tennessee Titans. Indianapolis started the year 0-2, but QB Andrew Luck put together arguably the best outing of his career in a 44-17 win over Jacksonville last week, he matched a career-high with four TD’s to go along with 370 yards to help his team avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. Luck has been helped with a strong run game, the Colts have totaled 313 yards on the ground thus far. Conversely, Tennessee looked shell shocked in last week’s 33-7 loss in Cincinnati on Sunday, but note that the club had heard about former kicker Rob Bironas’ death just a few hours before hand. That said, after a nice 26-10 win over Kansas City to open the year, the Titans have been outscored 59-17 in back-to-back defeats. Last week though it was clear that the team was collectively thinking about other things, it committed 11 penalties for 99 yards (note that Tennessee has been flagged 28 times in total this year for 239 yards). QB Jake Locker will be a game time decision, he hurt his wrist last week: "It was encouraging that we got to see Jake to a little bit, but that's what we anticipated," coach Whisenhunt said mid week. "Hopefully, it will progress more, and we'll see what we can do tomorrow and that will determine a lot." If Locker can’t go, it’s next man up in Charlie Whitehurst or sixth round pick Zach Mettenberger. The Titans know they are in tough, but if history is any precedence, the defense has to be liking its chances for a bounceback performance here, Luck has topped 240 yards in just one of his four career starts against Tennessee and has four INT’s to two TD’s in those matchups. Note that the Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Indianapolis is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a win vs. a division rival. This is a pivotal division matchup, Tennessee’s season is basically on the line here, I think the visitors come to play and keep it close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on the TITANS. AAA Sports |
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09-27-14 | Kent State +21.5 v. Virginia | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -106 | 134 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on Kent State. Virginia may be off a loss to BYU, but the team has covered each week so far this season and suffice it to say, I believe that streak ends today. I think this sets up as a natural letdown sport for the home side as lowly Kent State comes to town for its final non-conference tilt. The ACC schedule is one littered with much stronger competition, I simply can’t see the Cavaliers not looking ahead this week. When this line opened, I jumped on it at 21.5. It’s since gone closer to 27. Regardless, I still really like this pick and think the Flashes can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded here. MAC teams have a history of giving Virginia difficulty, you only have to go back to last year when it lost 48-27 to Ball State in Charlottesville as an example. Kent State will be looking to bounce back after two home losses and then an embarrasing 66-0 loss at Ohio State. Offensively the Golden Flashes haven’t been spectacular, but certainly not horrible either, Colin Reardon has 553 yards and five TDs. Defensively the teams runs a 4-2-5, Cover 4 scheme which is led by athletic safety Nate Holley, who is top in the MAC with 13.7 tackles per game. Viriginia’s offense has been pretty good, the rotation of QB’s Greyson Lambert and Matt Johns has been pretty effective; defensively though the Cavs sure looked susceptible last week, they did not register a sack or create a turnover vs. BYU. I think this is a great spot for Kent State to come in under the radar, after the beat down by the Buckeyes, the team had last weekend off to focus and prepare: "Virginia is a very talented football team," said Coach Paul Haynes. "They’ve had a very tough schedule, playing 3 out of 4 ranked opponents and playing them well. So we’ll have a huge challenge this week, but our guys have a great attitude, we went back to a good worth ethic and our guys are looking forward to an ACC opponent." Note that Kent State is in fact 10-5 ATS its last 15 on the road, while Virginia is just 2-7 ATS its last nine as a favorite and a sub-par 7-11 ATS its last 18 in front of the home town crowd. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to KENT STATE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-27-14 | Northwestern +10.5 v. Penn State | Top | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 130 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Northwestern. I think 1-2 Northwestern keeps this one close enough to escape with a comfortable ATS cover. Penn State’s defense is its major strength, but other than that, this is a team with a lot of questions in all other facets and it’s these ineffeciencies which I feel the Wildcats can take advantage of this week. The Wildcats weakness is their run game. The Nittany Lions though will be susceptible to the pass I think, Northwestern senior QB Trevor Siemian will be given the green light today to air it out, so far he’s connected with 13 different receivers on the season, led by Cameraon Dickson, who has seven receptions for 129 yards. Defense is the one area where Penn State has a big advantage, and that’s why this spread is so large. However, that’s the only one; while the Nitanny Lions possess a strong run game, Northwestern is very solid against it in allowing just 139.7 yards per game on average thus far. The Wildcats front seven will be looking to take advantage of a very young Penn State offensive line, which will eleviate some of the pressure off the secondary. However, Northwestern catches a break here as Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg has been all over the map as far as his performance so far this year, he struggled against UMass last week and he’ll have to keep his eyes on DE Dean Lowry who has collected 2.5 sackes on the season; you’ll also want to track Wildcats DE Ifeadi Odengibo, who has two sacks and three forced fumbles. Penn State is vulnerable for a letdown here I think, it has a struggling offensive line and a weak run game and I believe will have its hands full vs. Pat Fitzgerald, who is known for getting his teams to overacheive in these spots. Note that Northwestern is 6-4 ATS its last ten on the road and 4-3 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 11 points range; and note that Penn State is already 0-1 ATS this year as a favorite of 3.5 to 11 points and just 2-6 ATS in the same position over the last two. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to NORTHWESTERN as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears v. NY Jets | Top | 27-19 | Loss | -120 | 168 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Jets. From a situational stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, for a number off different reasons/factors I feel that the home side offers tremendous value in this spot. Let’s start off with the Bears: Chicago lost a heart breaker at home to the Bills in its opener, only to rally in the second half last Sunday night to beat the 49ers 28-20 as a 7.5 point underdog (I had Chicago in that one). The Bears would avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole and have to be feeling pretty good about that obviously. It’s tough playing on the road in the NFL, and it’s tough playing back to back contests away from friendly confines, not to mention two Nationally televised games in a row; I simply feel that it’s asking too much for this team to once again gut out a victory in another hostile environment and it will be especially tough I think against what I feel is a vastly under-rated home side. The Jets come into this game at 1-1 as well, they’d hold on for a 19-14 win over Oakland in Week 1, before letting a lead slip away in a hard-fought 31-24 setback to the Packers last weekend. Taking a closer look at tonight’s starting QB’s, Jay Cutler of Chicago has a 61.6 completion percentage, 14 TDs and three INTs in a 6-1 run on Monday nights. Geno Smith of New York was great in his lone Monday Night start as well, passing for 199 yards and three TDs while also compiling a career best 147.7 passer rating in a 30-28 win over Atlanta on October 7th. There is a possibility that Smith will not have the services of WR Eric Decker who will be a game time decision. However, the injury bug is much worse on the other side of the field, the Bears were unsure if top receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery would even play last week (both did, both are still ailing this week). But defensively is where Chicago really got pummeled, it was already playing without center Roberto Garza and LG Matt Slauson before also losing CB Charles Tillman, safety Chris Conte and tackle Jeremiah Ratliff in last week’s win; if any play tonight, don’t expect to see much production. Another weak point for Chicago was the run game, Matt Forte finished with 21 yards on 12 attempts, which is bad news as New York is giving up a league-low 52.5 yards and 2.8 per attempt. When Cutler is forced to pass and unable to rely on a run game to keep defenses honest is when he’s at his worst, I’m predicting a long night for the oft-maligned pivot who has a reputation of looking brilliant one week and absurdly horrible the next. Chicago looked pretty good on defense last week and it will once again have its hands full with a Jets run unit which ranks first in the NFL in averaging 179 YPG; one player you’ll want to keep your eyes on is RB Chris Ivory who has rushed for 145 yards and two major scores on a 6.3 per attempt average (note that the Bears are giving up a poor 5.4 YPC). Note that Chicago is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog, while the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite of 3 points or less. There are a plethora of factors working against the visitors, all signs point to NEW YORK as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-21-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 37-19 | Win | 100 | 161 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* SLUG-FEST on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Carolina is 2-0, it would beat Tampa Bay 20-14 on the road, before then beatting Detroit 24-7 last week. After opening Week 1 with a win, the Steelers will be looking to rebound here after a listless 26-6 loss at Baltimore on Thursday; Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 37 for 217 yards. The Steelers defense will will be looking to take advantage of a Panthers team which is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which is down significantly from last season’s 4.2 mark. So why the drop off you ask? A big reason why is because DeAngelo Williams has been out due to a thigh injury, Jonathan Stewart carried the ball 15 times for just 37 yards last week; note that Williams is likely going to play today, but certainly he won’t be at 100%. It’s a daunting task for any team in facing the stout Panthers defense, but the Steelers will hammer and test that front seven, RB Le’Veon Bell has proved to be a bright spot for the team in averaging 5.3 yards per carry and his 304 yards from scrimmage ranks second in the NFL. From a statistical standpoint, it’s important to note that Pittsburgh is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Carolina is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests. There was a lot of hype surrounding the upgrades to the Steelers offense in the offseason and so far they haven’t performed, but I think this is the perfect stage. I’m expecting a battle down to the end, and as such, will grab as many points as I can get; play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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09-21-14 | Oakland Raiders +16 v. New England Patriots | Top | 9-16 | Win | 100 | 153 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on the Oakland Raiders. It’s do or die for the Raiders, an 0-3 start and they’ll be looking ahead to next season. And unfortunately for them, that’s going to be reality, while I don’t foresee the visitors being able to take this game outright, I do think they’ll make it a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for them to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded on Sunday. After losing their opener to Miami, the Patriots would bounce back with a 30-7 win over the Vikings last Sunday. There are things to be concerned about though if you’re a New England fan, the offense is stagnant, Tom Brady and company would finish with a total of 292 yards, the team was fortunate to get a blocked FG for a TD as well as four INT’s to avoid the 0-2 start to the season. Brady finished with a sub-par 149 yards and ranks 28th in the league in QB rating at 78.8, the lowest of his career. New England is in fact 25th or lower in a number of offensive categories, including yards per game. The Patriots have also been uncharacteristically sloppy, they have 24 infractions accepted against them for a league-high 263 yards so far. I’m not going to sit here and try to convince you that Oakland is a great team that just hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, that’s definitely not the case. But I do think that it’s better than what it’s shown so far. Certainly the Raiders will look to tighten up with their run defense, they gave up 188 yards to Houston last week and will be leaning heavily upon former Pro Bowlers LaMarr Woodley, Justin Tuck and Antonio Smith. The offense looked inept in its first game as rookie Derek Carr had just 158 yards in the Raiders opening loss to the Jets, but looked much better against Houston’s tough defensive unit, finishing with 364 last week. It’s significant to note that Oakland is a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two years as a road underdog of 10 points or more, while New England is 1-5 ATS in the same time frame as a favorite of 10 points or more. Simply too many points to be giving up to this desperate team in my opinion, play on OAKLAND. AAA Sports |
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09-21-14 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 106 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Redskins. The Washington Redskins (1-1) got back on track last week with the insertion of Kirk Cousins and I think they do enough to at least cover the spread in Philadelphia. The Redskins may have lost Robert Griffin in the 41-10 win over Jacksonville in Week 2 but the offense looked even better with backup Kirk Cousins under center. Cousins completed his first 12 passes and finished 22 of 33 for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the woeful Jaguars. Alfred Morris ran for 85 yards, including two scores while Niles Paul had 99 yards to lead the team in receiving. Washington struggled in Week 1 vs. Houston’s dominant defensive play, but had no problems with the inept Jaguars in piling up 485 yards of total offense. The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) are riding high after a come from behind 30-27 win on Monday night football over Indianapolis. Darren Sproles had seven receptions for 152 yards to go along with a touchdown run. The Eagles became the fourth team in 30 years to win consecutive games in which it trailed in the second half by 14 or more points. There is a lot of hype surrounding the Eagles right now, but I think this is a few too many points for them to lay in this situation; this definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot in my opinion. I am not the only one who thinks RG3’s injury is a blessing in disguise for Washington as Cousins is a far better fit for head coach Jay Gruden’s offense: "He's handled being a backup like a pro,” Gruden remarked of Cousins earlier in the week. "He's waited patiently, and now his time is going to come to really take this thing and run with it." The Redskins come into this contest with double revenge on their minds as well after losing both tilts to their division rivals last year (both SU and ATS). Keep in mind the Eagles are just 4-13 ATS in home games the last two seasons and only 1-3 ATS as home favorites of more than 3.5 points in the same span. Philadelphia will also be working on a short work week after the Monday Night game on the road. I think Washington has a lot to prove here and will play more desperately than a 2-0 Eagles team that has gotten away with some sloppy defensive play over the first two weeks. All signs point to a comfortable cover for WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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09-20-14 | North Carolina +3 v. East Carolina | Top | 41-70 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina. North Carolina is 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS this year. It’s had a week off after beating SDSU 31-27 as a 14.5 point favorite on September 6th. So with a week off to prepare and focus, I think the visitors will at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door. East Carolina is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS and I think is primed for a letdown here after last week’s emotional 28-21 outright win over Virginia Tech as a 10 point underdog. This is also a “revenge” scenario for the visitors who would fall 55-31 at home to ECU last year as 12.5 point favorites. So while the Pirates are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall, I definitely feel this sets up as a natural letdown spot, which is bad news vs. this confident Tar Heels team. UNC entered the season ranked No. 23 in the AP Top 25 and has won its two games by a combined 31 points, but has since dropped out of the national rankings. The offense looks great, the defense needs some work though after giving up 29 and 27 points respectively. But as mentioned, the NC’s offense looks fantastic, it’s posted 87 total points so far behind a very balanced pass/rush attack. Tar Heels QB Marquise Williams has already thrown for 424 yards and four TDs behind a 67.2 percent pass completion. Williams though has also been deadly with his feet, he’s rushed for 115 yards and two major scores on 18 attempts. Pirates’ QB Shane Carden has also been great so far, he has 1,031 yards passing in three games, as well as thrown for seven scoring TD’s while completing 63.3 percent of his throws; that said, I think he’ll be in tough today vs. this revenge minded UNC unit. So not only do I feel this sets up as a letdown spot for ECU after its big upset last week, but I also believe that it’s a “look ahead” spot for it, as well as it won’t be able to help itself in looking ahead to next week’s bye. Conversely, this is an ultra important game for the Tar Heels who are in No. 22 Clemson next week, then Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, Pittsburgh, Duke and NC State to finish the season; in my opinion, this is a must-win contest for the visitors. Play on NORTH CAROLINA. AAA Sports |
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09-20-14 | Virginia v. BYU -14.5 | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 107 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on BYU. Virginia beat the Cougars last year and comes into this contest filled with confidence after it took #7 ranked UCLA down to the wire and then upset #21 ranked Louisville at home last week. However, for a number of different reasons, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and will prove that when we dig a little deeper and look at some of Virginia’s numbers a little more closely, that the team is actually getting the job done with “smoke and mirrors.” The Cavaliers opportunistic defensive play has carried the load for an inconsistent offense; I’ll give credit where credit is due, Virginia actually leads the nation with 13 forced turnovers, but as I mentioned, when we dig a little deeper, we find that that number is inflated because of the seven turnover game against FCS Richmond. And it hasn’t been perfect either, LB Henry Coley nearly cost his team the game with two crucial penalties that led to Louisville TD’s last week. Virginia QB Greyson Lambert has thrown three INT’s in as many games, in all the Cavs have given up eight turnovers; note that in two games vs. FBS competition, Lambert has a pedestrian 274 passing yards, a horrible -13 rushing yards and an unremarkable two total TDs. I think Lambert is going to get rocked today, he’s not put any fear into any opposing defense that he’s faced, BYU’s unit is known for its hard hits and I think will rattle the Cavs’ pivot early and often. So not only do I think the Cavs passing game will suffer today, so to will its running game in my opinion; RB Kevin Parks leads Virginia with 173 yards on 52 attempts and one TD. Conversely, the home side’s run game is definitely something to be feared, Taysom Hill has 356 yards on 62 carries and six TD’s while Jamaal Williams (in just two games), has 228 yards and two TD’s. When the Cavs run game fails, we can expect Lambert to be forced into throwing when he doesn’t want to, which is bad news for him as BYU has given up an average of just 258.3 YPG through the air. I think I’ve proven so far that Virginia has been a little “lucky” this year, especially when its numbers are put under the microscope, so suffice it to say, I think that “luck” runs out today. BYU plays with revenge; the Cougars clearly have the better offensive and defensive units as well. BYU also definitely gets the nod in the Special Teams department; note that Cougar punter Scott Arellano is one of the best in the country, he’s averaging 43.3 yards per kick, and five of them have already landed inside the 20 yard line. This is a deadly weapon for BYU, combined with a superior defense and a talented offense, I think Virginia is going to be overwhelmed in this game. BYU is going to pound the ball on the ground, it has a stable of bruising backs which is going to wear down Virginia’s tough front seven; it’s on the backend however which the Cavs are weak, Hill is in line for a productive day. Rewind to last year’s game, a contest which was delayed because of a down pour, where Hill would throw below 35% in his first contest with a new offense. Fast forward to Saturday, Hill now has a ton of experience and his offense is running like a well-oiled machine. While I do in fact think Virginia is better than it was last year as well, I believe this is a bad spot for it, look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on BYU. AAA Sports |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Bears +7.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 161 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Chicago Bears. Chicago comes into this game down a few pieces, but I think in the end can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door once the final whistle sounds. Chicago suffered a bad beat at home in a 23-20 OT loss to the Bills last week and will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season; also note that there will be added incentive for a big effort here today as Chicago begins a stretch with six of its next eight away from friendly confines: “It's hard to win on the road in this league, so you want to start off the season with a win at home," said Bears’ RB Matt Forte afterwards. "It's just as simple as taking care of the ball a little better, and in the red zone scoring more points when we get down there." As mentioned off the top, Chicago may have to deal with the absence of receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. However, both are listed as game time decisions, each got in some minor work in Friday’s practice. Regardless, the Bears are still dangerous on the offensive side of the ball with the likes of receiver Santonio Holmes, TE Martellus Bennett and the ever dangerous Forte. And note, San Francisco comes into this contest with injuries on the defensive side of the ball as CB’s Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver are out indefinitely after ailments suffered in last week’s win. Cutler though will clearly need to be careful with the ball, all he has to do is look at Tony Romo’s three INT’s last week; Culter though looked pretty solid in last Sunday’s loss, while he had two INT’s, he’d finish with 349 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Bears know they have to be better: "You know San Fran is going to come out and run some of that zone-read," Chicago DE Willie Young said earlier in the week. "I wouldn't be surprised if we get that for the rest of the year. That's not just singling us out. It's across the league. Everybody's buying stock in that particular play so we're just going to have to be sound for stopping that zone read." From a situational stand point, could this be a “look ahead” spot for San Francisco? Perhaps, it’s definitely worth noting that the 49ers hit the road for their first divisional contest of the year in Arizona against a 1-0 Cardinals team which is favored in New York today. I won’t call for the outright upset, but do think that all of the strong situational and motivational factors I listed above are definitely working in favor of the visitors today, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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09-14-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Washington Redskins -5.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 133 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Redskins. It’s only Week 2, but this has to be considered an almost a do-or-die game for the Redskins. A loss to the lowly Jaguars and an 0-2 record would be devastating and as such, I think it will be all hands on deck in the Nation’s capital and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Jacksonville looked decent in jumping out to an early 17-0 lead in Philadelphia but would then characteristically fall apart and ultimately get crushed 34-17. Washington didn’t look much better, but drew a tough opening game on the road with an equally as determined Houston team which would win win 17-6 in front of the home town crowd. Jacksonville comes in with some injury issues as well as top WR’s Marquise Lee and Cecil Shorts III are limited or unable to go with hamstring problems. There were a lot of expectations for the Redskins last year, but QB Robert Griffin III would take a major step back and the team would finish 3-13 SU, including losing its final eight in a row. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Griffin and Co. last week though, the unit would generate 372 total yards; note that Griffin himself went 29 of 37 overall. The run unit looked great too and will look to take advantage of the Jaguars suspect line; note that Alfred Morris and Roy Helu would finish with a respectable 137 yards on 18 carries. I think Griffin can bounce back here, Houston’s front 7 is dangerous, while the Jags showed some life in the first half last week, the unit looked inept in the second. Conversely, I think Jags’ QB Chad Henne will have his hands full today with Washignton’s dynamic pass-rushing duo in Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo. Ultimately, I think WASHINGTON can come up with enough big plays like the Eagles did last week and look for the home side to take care of business. AAA Sports |
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09-13-14 | USC v. Boston College +20 | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 143 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* PLATINUM CLUB on Boston College. Many different factors collide for the home side here, I look for Boston College to keep this one close enough to come away with the comfortable ATS cover. USC has won two straight, both SU and ATS but I think will come in a bit complacent here, leaving the back door open for the home side to sneak through. The Trojans are coming off an emotional win at Stanford and I think the Eagles and coach Steve Addazio can take advantage of this letdown spot and keep it much more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Note that combined with this non-conference road game, that USC won’t be able to help itself in looking ahead to its bye next week, and then its important game at home vs. Oregon State on the 27th. I think the Trojans will be in for a bit of a surprise here, BC has a potent rush attack and will be able to control the ball for stretches while on offense; in fact, QB Tyler Murphy has been the team’s leading rusher with 210 yards and two TD’s in two games. Murphy will be a hand full today, he’s 27 of 52 for 307 yards so far and averages 7.2 yards per carry. USC looked great in its series opening win vs. a discombobulated Fresno State team, but I think will have difficulties in moving the ball so proficiently vs. this more sound Eagles defensive unit. Note that USC is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite, while BC is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 in front of the home town crowd. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to BOSTON COLLEGE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports |
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09-13-14 | UCLA -7 v. Texas | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BAIL-OUT on UCLA. This game is being played in Texas, but in a neutral location, I think the “vistors” have a big opportunity to shake off a somewhat lacklustre start and take advantage of this discombobulated Longhorns team. Texas is simply in free fall, coach Charlie Strong must wonder what the heck he got himself into after 34-point losses at home. A big reason why, starting QB David Ash is now out indefinitely with a concussion and so far backup Tyrone Swoops has been extremely inconsistent; it’s hardly been all Swoopes fault though as he is playing behind a severely depleted line. Those offensive line issues aren’t going to magically resolve themselves and its a point of weakness that the Bruins can attack. UCLA has been anything but impressive year as it has won two, one-possession games over Memphis and Virginia. The Bruins secondary has a big opportunity to redeem itself vs. the Longhorns backup this weekend. So while UCLA has looked pretty mediocre so far, there’s no question in my mind that Texas’ issues are much deeper. Note that UCLA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference games, while Texas is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as an underdog; play on UCLA. AAA Sports |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants v. Detroit Lions -4.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 203 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on the Detroit Lions. I think the home side and new coach Jim Caldwell find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Giants would open 2013/14 by going an NFL-worst 0-6 out of the gates, but then would go 7-3 the rest of the way. It’s a little surprising to me that New York recovered the way it did, especially when you dig a little deeper and take a look at some of the numbers, the Giants finished 28th in the league in scoring and had an NFL-high 44 turnovers. New York would bring in former Green Bay assistant Ben McAdoo at offensive coordinator, his job is to instal the up-tempo West Coast offense, something that veteran QB Eli Manning had difficulties with in the preseason: Don't get me wrong, we're ready for Week 1," Manning explained over the weekend. "But I think as a season goes on, you're always looking to improve, whether you've been in a system for 10 years or whether you have young guys and need guys to step up or you have new players, there's always room for improvement." That certainly doesn’t sound like a person that is 100% confident with what is going on. Detroit’s major issue the last few years has been consistency; both sides of the football are loaded with talent, but something has gone wrong as the group has severely under-performed. That said, Caldwell adopts a team which ranked third in the NFL in passing yards last season; Caldwell has been brought in to properly harness the talents of oft-maligned pivot Matt Stafford: “You can tell he has worked at it even during the summer," Caldwell said of his QB. "In every facet, I can see improvement. Footwork, accuracy, timing, command of the offense, all of those things. So now we get a chance to see if he can put it all together." To me, that sounds like a real assessment, Caldwell isn’t just blowing smoke up the media’s butts for a good soundbite in my opinion. Stafford’s favorite target will once again be star receiver Calvin Johnson, but will also welcome ex Seattle receiver Golden Tate. While New York did make some upgrades along its atrocious offensive line, I think the unit will have its hands full with Detroit’s opportunistic line and secondary; and that’s bad news for the declining Manning who again led the league in turnovers last year (and note that the Giants run game put up the worst numbers for the franchise in almost 70 years). Unfortunately for Manning and his patchwork run unit, they’ll once again be behind a poor offensive line; note that veteran Chris Snee retired in July, while guard Geoff Schwartz went down with a dislocated toe. New York also got hit on the defensive side of the ball when MLB Jon Beason was injured in OTAs. That’s bad news for the visitors, Stafford is coming off his third straight season of more than 4,500 yards passing and can turn to an electric run game which is led by Reggie Bush who had 1,006 yards on the ground in 2013. While the Giants have taken the last three meetings between the teams (2007, 2010 and last year), I think the conditions are finally right for Stafford and look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on DETROIT. AAA Sports |
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09-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 180 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning came up short against his old team last year but I think the prolific pivot will get his revenge tonight and guide the home side to a convincing victory once the final whistle sounds. Since being let go by the Colts, Manning has dominated in Denver, he’s led his team to back-to-back 13 win seasons and last year he’d set an NFL record with 55 TD passes and 5,477 yards. For the most part the Broncos rolled through the 2013 regular season, but their first loss came on Manning’s first visit to Indianapolis as an opponent, a 39-33 setback on October 20th. Both teams comes in with having to deal with some off-field non-sense, Denver will have to overcome the absence of Wes Welker for four games due to violating the league’s drug policy, while the Colts issues’ lie with owner Jim Irsay and his suspension due to a DWI; we’ll call this area a “wash” then. Manning still has plenty of weapons to utilize, including Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and TD Julius Thomas. The Colts are coming off back-to-back 11 win seasons under the guidance of Andrew Luck who is going to have his hands full I think in this nationally televised contest, the Broncos upgraded their defense significantly in the offseason by acquiring DB’s Aqib Talib and TJ Ward as well as lineman DeMarcus Ware. After the way the Broncos lost in the Super Bowl, do you think the home side has something to prove tonight? You’d better believe it:”"Season opener, it doesn't get much bigger than this except for the postseason," Manning said. "I've always said that opening day is a playoff-type atmosphere." I like Manning to outduel his counterpart tonight; play on DENVER. AAA Sports |
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