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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-23 | Oregon v. Stanford +27.5 | Top | 42-6 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
10* Stanford (PAC 12 GOM) Oregon is 4-0 SU/ATS, but with a week off next weekend, followed by a game at Washington, not only do we feel this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot, but it's also a "look-ahead" position. When you add those two factors together you get "trap game!" That's what we're basing this pick on, a great situational play as we do indeed feel this is a "trap." No such luxury obviously for 1-3 Stanford, who nealry pulled off the epic upset last week in a 21-20 home loss to Arizona as a 13-point underdog; no outright win, but closer than expected, so grab the points with the Cardinal! AAA Sports |
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09-30-23 | Georgia v. Auburn +15 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show |
10* Auburn (SEC GOM) Georgia is 4-0, but 0-3-1 ATS. With nearly 90% of the money on the Bulldogs here though, we're going full on contrarian and going theother way with Auburn. The Tigers are 3-1 SU, and 1-3 ATS. The Bulldogs are B2B National Champs, but getting a little TOO much respect here in our opinion; grab the points, because this is a great situational play on Auburn! AAA Sports |
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09-30-23 | Indiana +14.5 v. Maryland | Top | 17-44 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 30 m | Show |
10* Indiana (BIG TEN GOM) Maryland is 4-0 SU, and they've outscored their opponents 149-49 so far. We're not predicting an outrigh upet here or anything, but we do think there are plenty of reasons to believe that the home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half and allow the hungry visiting side enough room to sneak in through down the stretch. Indiana is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. Not only is this a natural "letdown" spot after four straight wins and playing at home here as a huge favorite, but it's also a "look ahead" position for the Terps, who are on the road at Ohio State next week. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Indiana! AAA Sports |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
10* NC State (ACC GOW) Louisville is 4-1, and NC State is 3-1. In a battle that we see being decided by whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. Louisville may be 4-0 SU, but it's just 2-2 ATS, and 0-2 ATS on the road. NC State is 0-4 ATS right now, but here's a great opportunity for the Wolfpack, with the Cardinals getting caught "looking ahead" to their game at home vs. Notre Dame next weekend; the outright is possible, but grab the points with NC State on Friday night! AAA Sports |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
10* Packers (NFC NORTH GOM) They say that divisional games are the most important, and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Yes, Detroit may on paper have played the harder schedule to this point, but the bottom line here is that these teams are both 2-1. The winner of this game will have a clear leg up in the division. They'll play the reverse fixture in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. We expect Jordan Love to continue his progression here though and to get the better of his counterpart Jared Goff on the road, who has been consistently inconsistent away from friendly confines. A great "situational" play on the Packers! AAA Sports |
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09-28-23 | Middle Tennessee State +6.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
10* MTSU (CONF USA GOY) We like MTSU to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door with what we feel is a generous amount of points afforded to it. The Blue Raiders are 1-3 SU, while Western Kentucky is 2-2. MTSU has played a tough schedule though, losing 56-7 to Alabama, 23-19 to Missouri and 31-23 to Colorado State. The lone victory was a commanding 35-14 victory over Murray State. The Blue Raiders are led by Nicholas Vattiato who has an impressive 916 yards and 7:2 TD:INT. WKU opened 2-0, but the Hilltoppers enter with zero momentum after two straight losses. Most recently they lost 63-10 to Ohio State and 27-24 to Troy. QB Austin Reed has 1,071 passing yards and 9:1 TD:INT. MTSU is the better overall team here, and much more battle-tested. Everything does point to an upset, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can; the play is MTSU! AAA Sports |
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09-25-23 | Eagles -4.5 v. Bucs | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* EAGLES FIRST HALF (ASSASSIN) (NOTE: We also like the Eagles for the ENTIRE game, so if you don't have access to a FIRST HALF line, we also like Philly for the overall ATS victory in this contest as well.) Both teams enter 2-0, but we're expecting the Eagles to really hammer Baker Mayfield and the home side from start to finish in this one. Philly has had a few extra days off after beating Minnesota 34-28 lats Thursday. Tampa is off a 27-17 win over the lowly Bears. Philadelphia has been involved in two one-score games, and because of that, we're expecting the visitors to take nothing for granted and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. With a road game at division rival New Orleans next weekend, the home side will also get caught "looking ahead;" the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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09-24-23 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +13 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
10* Cardinals (U OF THE U) The Cowboys are riding high at 2-0 after blowing out the Jets by a score of 30-10 last weekend, and we believe they'll get caught "looking ahead" here to their home game vs. the Patriots next weekend. Joshua Dobbs wasn't terrible in last week's 32-18 home defeat to the Giants. While 0-2 SU, the Cards have been great for bettors in the early going by going 2-0 ATS. Teams that start 0-3 in the NFL to open the season have virtually zero chance of making the playoffs. Expectations were extremely low for the Cards going into the season, but we're expecting Josh Dobbs best game so far; grab the points, the play is Arizona! AAA Sports |
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09-24-23 | Panthers +5.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 0 m | Show |
10* Panthers (BEST OF BEST) We base our picks on many different things. In our opinion, this is a great "situational" play. Carolina comes in desperate to snap its 0-2 slide to the season. Teams that start 0-3 have virtually no chance of even making the playoffs. It's hard to get a read on Seattle. It lost here terribly to the Rams in Week 1, before bouncing back with a 37-31 OT win at Detroit last week. With back-to-back high-profile road games at the Giants and Bengals, will Seattle get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent this weekend? The possibility is definitely there! It happened to the Hawks in Week 1. Whoever gets the start under center for Carolina, we expect this game to be decided in the final moments; grab the points, the play is the Panthers! AAA Sports |
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09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
10* Falcons (ASSASSIN) Here's the bottom line with this play. We feel that Atlanta is getting little respect from the oddsmakers are 2-0, and we also believe there's been WAY too much hype surrounding the Lions before the season even started, and certainly still right now at 1-1. The Lions squeaked by the Chiefs on opening night 21-20. It was a really good win, but then the defense fell flat in 37-31 OT loss at home to Seattle. With a short week and a road game at Green Bay on Thursday night, the 2-0 Falcons are going to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports |
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09-23-23 | UNLV v. UTEP +2.5 | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 18 m | Show |
10* UTEP (MONEY-BOMB) UNLV is 2-1 and UTEP is 1-3, but in a contest that we see being decided by whichever of these evenly matched teams has its hands on the ball last, we'll recommend to grab the points. UNLV is off a satisfying 40-37 home win as a dog and we believe it's primed for a letdown here. Starting QB Doug Brumfield was injured in the first quater, and while redshirt freshman Jayden Maiava was decent, the QB position is a concern here for the visiting side no matter who gets the start. UTEP is off a 31-10 loss at Arizona, following a 38-7 setback to Northwestern. The level of competition clearly needs to be taken into account here; senior QB Cavin Hardison had 228 yards and so far has 722 yards, four TD's and four INT's. But again, the Miners have faced some stiff competition early and while we do believe the home side can win this one outright, in the end the official play is to grab as many points as you can with UTEP! AAA Sports |
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09-23-23 | Florida State v. Clemson +2.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
10* Clemson (BLOCKBUSTER) Florida State is ranked No. 4 in the country and it comes into this game at 3-0. Clemson is 2-1, after a "brain fart" performance in Week 1 vs. Duke. The Tigers though have history on their side in this matchup, as they've won four straight at Memorial Stadium, while owning seven straight victories in the series overall. Here's a HUGE opportunity for Dabo Swinney to get right back into the ACC mix with an upset win here at home vs. surging Florida State. Grab the points, the play is Clemson! AAA Sports |
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09-22-23 | Air Force v. San Jose State +6 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10* San Jose State (SHOCKER) We think that 3-0 Air Force leaves the back door open just enough for the desperate 1-3 San Jose State Spartans to sneak in through down the sretch. Air Force is off a win over Utah State, rushing for 344 yards and five TD's on the ground. RB Emmanual Michel had 105 yards and three TD's. QB Zac Larrier rushed ten times for 58 yards and a score. San Jose State is 2-1 after falling 21-17 at Toledo last weekend. The Spartans actually held a 17-14 third quarter lead. Chevan Cordeiro has 228 yards and a TD, but also had a costly turnover. Note though that despite being 3-0 SU this year, AF is just 1-2 ATS. San Jose State's defensive numbers have improved dramtically over the last two games and while we're stopping short in calling for an outright upset, all signs point to a tight battle until the end; grab the points, the play is San Jose State! AAA Sports |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue +5.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
10* Purdue (BLOCKBUSTER) Home field advantage will come into play here for two teams playing their first Big Ten contest of the season. The Badgers are 2-1 and off a 35-14 win over Georgia Southern, while the Boilermakers are just 1-2, most recently off a 35-20 home loss to Syracuse. The Badgers' run game looks decent, but it's a little difficult to properly judge based upon the level of competition thus far. So far Purdue has allowed 132.7 RYP. Wisconsin is allowing 20.7 PPG, but again, the level of competition to this point has to be called into question. Hudson Card though will be looking to push the pace here for the Boilermakers, who are averaging 275 yards per game passing. Card has 825 yards passing and just one INT with 110 attempts. As stated off the top and mentioned throughout, we think Wisconsin is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here, as we feel its numbers are skewed due to the level of competition; grab the points, the play is Purude! AAA Sports |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State +6.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 51 m | Show |
10* Georgia State (SUNBELT GOW) The Georgia State Panthers are 3-0 and we feel they have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. They're off a 41-25 win over Charlotte, with Darren Graingers going 27 of 33 for 466 yards and three passing TD's, as well as rushing for 23 yards and a rushing score. Coastal Carolina is 2-1, it's coming off a 66-7 home win over Duquesne, with QG Grayson McCall going for 169 yards and a TD. The Panthers are averaging 39.3 PPG, while the Chanticleers are averaging 36.3. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Georgia State! AAA Sports |
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09-18-23 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10* Panthers (ASSASSIN) We're going contrarian with this one. Carolina fell 24-10 at Atlanta in Week 1, while New Orleans held on for a 16-15 win over Tennessee at home, unable to cover the three-point spread. Honestly, both teams looked bad. Division rivals are always the most important though, and they almost always mean more to the home side. And that's the case here in our opinion. Derek Carr had 305 yards passing and a TD for the Saints, while Bryce Young was 20 of 38 for 146 yards, one TD and two INT's. With that awkward game out of the way though, we're expecting Young to settle down here at home. Carolina's defense held Atlanta to just 221 offensive yards. The Saints are still without Alvin Kamara as well. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Carolina! AAA Sports |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +3 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -123 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
10* Patriots (AFC EAST GOY) Divisional matchups are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. And that's definitely the case here in our opinion, as we expect New England to win this game outright. That said, our official call is to grab as many points as you can. Miami fought tooth and nail with the Chargers on the road in Week 1 and it escaped with a thrilling 36-34 victory as a 3-point underdog. Now they face a New England team that comes off a tough 25-20 home loss to the high-powered Eagles. Lots of good things for Mac Jones and company though. The defense looked great and Jones finished with 315 passing yards. While the outright win is possible, the play is to grab the points with NEW ENGLAND. AAA Sports |
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09-17-23 | Seahawks v. Lions -4.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
10* Lions (SUPER BLOWOUT) The Seahawks surprised everyone last year, but in Week 1, they fell at home to division rival LA as a favorite. Now they're facing a confident and well-rested Lions team at home and all signs point to a big time blowout in our opinion. Hawks' QB Geno Smith was just 16 of 26 for 112 passing yads and a TD. The defense looked terrible, and we have a hard time seeing it slowing down Jared Goff and company in what will be a sold out Ford Field. Goff had 225 yards and a TD in their upset win on Opening night over the Chiefs. We're expecting a completely lop-sided blowout, so lay the points, the play is Detroit! AAA Sports |
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09-17-23 | Colts +1.5 v. Texans | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
10* Colts (ASSASSIN) What do you base your picks on? We use many different methodologies and approaches. Sometimes we break a game wide open, looking at every player matchup and every statistic we can get. Other times though we like to "keep it simple." This week and for this game we're "keeping it simple" and giving this particular matchup the "eye test." We really liked what we saw out of the Colts in Week 1, as their young QB looks legit. The Texans looked inept in their 25-9 loss at Baltimore. Look for the Colts' progression to continue here and grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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09-16-23 | Kansas v. Nevada +28.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
10* Nevada (NON-CONF GOW) Kansas is 2-0, and Nevada is 0-2. In no way shape or form are we suggesting that the Wolfpack are going to steal an outright win here or anything, but we do think that there's every reason to believe that the Jayhawks'll take the foot off the gas as they get caught looking ahead to a bye week next week, followed by games at Texas and Oklahoma State. No such luck obviously for Nevada, who despite being a massive underdog here, won't simply be rolling over. This is too many points to be giving up considering all of these strong situational circumstances listed above; grab the points, the play is Nevada! AAA Sports |
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09-16-23 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Rutgers | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
10* Virginia Tech (ASSASSIN) This game means more to UVA after suffering a 24-17 defeat to Purdue last weekend as a 1-point favorite. With a tough game at Marshall after this, the Hokies will be risking life and limb here to avoid another loss. The Scarlet Knights are 2-0 SU/ATS, but their early numbers are skewed do the level of the competition. WIth a game at Michigan on deck next, not only does this set up as a possible "letdown," but it also sets up as a possible "look-ahead" spot. When you add those two things together you get "trap game." No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is on the Hokies! AAA Sports |
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09-16-23 | Florida State v. Boston College +24.5 | Top | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
10* Boston College (ACC GOY) Do we think that Boston College will win this game outright?! We do not. Do we think the Seminoles will take the foot off the proverbial gas pedal in the second half of this game as they caught looking ahead to their game at Clemson next Saturday? Absolutely. This is a great situational play, one so strong that this pick will qualify as our 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR. BC lost this game 44-14 last year, but all signs point to a much more competitive game this time around; grab the points, the play is BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports |
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09-15-23 | Virginia +14.5 v. Maryland | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
10* Virginia (BLOOD-BATH) UVA is 0-2, while Maryland is 2-0. UVA though is coming off a 36-35 loss to James Madison as a 6-point dog and we believe it'll be able to carry that positive progression over here in Week 3 here as well. Maryland beat Charlotte 38-20, but was unable to cover the 24.5-point spread. We feel this Friday night spread is too large as well for the home side to cover, especially with a big televised game at Michigan State the following weekend, setting this up as a classic "letdown + look-ahead" spot! Virginia's backup QB was great, as Athony Colandrea had 377 passing yards and two TD's. Maryland's game was 17-14 going into the fourth quarter, as the Terps struggled in many facets. This is too many points, so grab them; the play is indeed on Virginia! AAA Sports |
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09-14-23 | Navy +14 v. Memphis | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
10* Navy (AAC GOM) Navy is 1-1, while Memphis is 2-0. The Midshipmen beat Wagner 24-0 last week, unable to cover the 43.5-point spread. Memphis crushed Arkansas 37-3. Memphis won this game at Navy last year by a score of 37-13, but all signs point to a much tighter battle this time around in our opinion. With a game vs. Missouri on a neutral field next week, will Memphis get caught "looking ahead?!" The possibility is there of course. Navy on the other hand has a bye next week, which works in our favor here this week as the team puts its entire focus onto this game. Navy runs the option attack, but QB Tai Lavatai had 161 yards passing, including a 45 yard pass to RB Anton Hall Jr. Let's not read too much into the Tigers' early numbers, also facing off against FCS Bethune-Cookman. We see the home side leaving the back door open just enough for the visiting side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch; grab the points, the play is Navy! AAA Sports |
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09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 40-0 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 36 m | Show |
10* Giants (SUPER BLOWOUT) Both teams advanced to the second round of the playoffs last year before then falling. Dallas has some talent to replace on offense this season though, and we've never been a big fan of Dak Prescott's. Dallas looks poised for a big step back this year after flailing once again last season. The Giants exceeded expectations by finishing 9-8 and in a contest that we see being decided late, or by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points (but note, we wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset or anything either); the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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09-10-23 | Eagles -3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 145 h 55 m | Show |
10* Eagles FIRST HALF (NON-CONF FH GOW) NOTE: If you don't have access to FIRST HALF lines, then we still like this game as well for the entire game. Philadelphia was 14-3 last year and it then lost in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs by the slimmest of margins. The Pats were 8-9. Mac Jones and the Pats should do a lot better in his third year and with a new OC, but the Eagles are primed to hit the ground running in our estimation. What's the best way to take the crowd out of this game, which will be hyped becuase of a Tom Brady ceremony? Burying them in the first half. And that's exactly what we're expecting the dynamic Jalen Hurts and company to do; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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09-10-23 | Texans v. Ravens -10 | Top | 9-25 | Win | 100 | 142 h 29 m | Show |
10* RAVENS FIRST HALF (ASSASSIN) NOTE: We also like Baltimore for the entire game, so if you don't have half time lines available, we're also suggesting a play on Baltimore for the ENTIRE game. The Ravens have had a busy off-season, including locking up Lamar Jackson, signing Odell Beckham Jr. among other moves. Houston has CJ Stroud, who could go on to become the next John Elway, but he's going to be in over his head here on the road in this difficult road venue; the play is BALTIMORE. AAA Sports |
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09-10-23 | Bucs v. Vikings -5.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -113 | 142 h 11 m | Show |
10* Vikings (NON-DIV. NFC GOY) Baker Mayfield's career is on the line here. It's now or never for Mayfield, and he'll likely be without his top receiver in Mike Evans. There's plenty of off-field drama going on in Tampa and we expect Minnesota to take advantage of that fact here in Week 1, coming in as the more prepared team will result in a decisive and lop-sided decision. The Vikes won the NFC North last year and while they have a few question marks here and there, everything points to a comfortable win and cover here at home in our opinion; lay the points, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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09-09-23 | SMU +16 v. Oklahoma | Top | 11-28 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
10* SMU (UNDERDOG BOB) This is a non-conference matchup and we feel that SMU will be able to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread that it's been afforded in this one. SMU is off a 38-14 win over Louisiana Tech, while Oklahoma annihilated Arkansas State by a score of 73-0. SMU though was up 31-0 at halftime in its game before taking the foot off the gas in the second half as it was caught looking ahead to this much more difficult game. Oklahoma though is the one going to be get caught "looking ahead" to its game at Cincinnati next week. A great situational play, grab as many points as you can with SMU! AAA Sports |
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09-09-23 | Notre Dame v. NC State +7.5 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
10* NC State (ANNIHILATION) The Irish are 2-0, but now they finally get tested this weekend. We're not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what this line is suggesting in our opinion. The Wolfpack won't be rolling over here at home after their 24-14 win over UConn last Thursday and with the advantage of a couple of extra days rest. Notre Dame had no problem with Tennessee State last week, and with a week off before a game at home vs. Ohio State on September 23rd, this for sure sets up as not only a "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead." This is a great "situational" play on NC State! AAA Sports |
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09-08-23 | Illinois +3.5 v. Kansas | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Illinois (ASSASSIN) Both teams enter at 1-0. Illinois is coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo, while Kansas beat Missouri State 48-17. Last year the Fighting Illini had the best defense in the country, but after the team lost its entire secondary to the NFL in the offseason, there's going to be a transition period obviously. QB Luke Altmyer had 211 yards passing and two TDs. Jalon Daniels could very well make his debut for the Jayhawks today, but if he does, we're expecting some "growing pains" for himself here as well as he gets "up to speed." Daniels had an 18:4 TD:INT last year before getting injured. Jason Bean looked good last week vs. Missouri State, but clearly this Illinois defense, despite being a shadow of its former self, is a huge step up in difficulty. An outright is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with Illinois! AAA Sports |
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09-07-23 | Lions +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 104 h 47 m | Show |
10* Lions (BLOCKBUSTER) The Lions finished 9-8 last year, while the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl, their second in the last four years. The Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is always an X-Factor despite who is on his line-up, but with six key starters from last year's record-breaking offense gone, there's going to be a small amount of transition time here for the KC offense to find the same chemistry as it clearly had last season. The Lions' defense was their weak-point all year, but the unit made big strides in the second half of the season, allowing just 20.2 PPG. Detroit is ready to hit the ground running and won't at all be intimidated here. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Detroit! AAA Sports |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13.5 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 178 h 8 m | Show |
10* Duke (MONEY) Clemson comes to Duke here to open the season on Monday night off an 11 win campaign. Duke though really turned things around in 2022 under Mike Elko’s first season, finishing with nine wins. Clemson will feel that the 11 win season was a step back, while Duke's nine win campaign was one of its best of all time. The bottom line here is, Clemson is not the National power that it once was. The public is always quick to back the Tigers, but this matchup is more evenly matched than it appears in our opinion. Four of the Blue Devils losses last year were of the one-score variety. WB Riley Leonard is back, and we think he'll keep his team competitive late; no outright, but closer than expected so grab the points with Duke! AAA Sports |
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09-03-23 | Northwestern +7 v. Rutgers | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -111 | 146 h 15 m | Show |
10* Northwestern (ROUT) Outright upset? Maybe, but after going 1-11 last year, Northwestern won't be lacking motivation today. Ben Bryant came over from Cincinnati to be the man under center and to refresh this offense. What better opponent to go up against to open the season than Rutgers, which went 4-8 last year? The Scarlet Knights once again have more questions than answers coming into this season. The Rutgers defense is its strength, but we're expecting this to be a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is Northwestern! AAA Sports |
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09-02-23 | South Alabama +7 v. Tulane | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 51 m | Show |
10* South Alabama (ASSASSIN) South Alabama was an amazing 12-1 ATS last year, and we're expecting it to get out to a quick start in 2023/24 as well. Tulane finished 13th in rushing a year ago, but the Jaguars finished 8th in rushing defense. South Alabama was 10-3 overall, but it fell to WKU in the New Orleans Bowl. Overall the Jaguars allowed just 21.3 PPG. The Green Wave conceded 22.2. In a contest that we believe will "come down to the wire," we're grabbing the points; the play is South Alabama! AAA Sports |
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09-02-23 | Toledo +9.5 v. Illinois | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 148 h 46 m | Show |
10* Toledo (SITUATIONAL BLOODBATH) Toledo has a stout offensive line and we think it'll be a difference-maker in being able to push around Illinois and hang and be competitive late. This was the MAC's best defense last year and that's going to be enough against this Illinois team on Saturday in our estimation. Toledo has the talen to run as well. Illinois is a great defense as well, so points will be at a premium. No matter which way you look at it though, this is a few too many points; grab the points, the play is Toledo! AAA Sports |
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09-02-23 | Bowling Green +10 v. Liberty | Top | 24-34 | Push | 0 | 141 h 59 m | Show |
10* Bowling Green (UNDERDOG SHOCKER) Liberty is a huge favorite here, but note that it was just 6-7 ATS. When favored by ten or more points, the Flames did not cover the spread once out of six times last season. Bowling Green was just 4-8-1 ATS, but with a low turnover in personel, the Falcons are expected to take a small step forward this year. Bowling Green was an underdog of 10 or more points in four different games last year and the Falcons went 2-2 ATS. We're not predicting an outright, but we definitely feel this is a few too many points for Liberty to cover here in Week 1; grab the points, the play is Bowling Green! AAA Sports |
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09-01-23 | Stanford v. Hawaii +7 | Top | 37-24 | Loss | -120 | 130 h 22 m | Show |
10* Hawaii (NON-CONF GOW) Stanford has a ton of potential with new head coach Troy Taylor, whose Sacramento State team averaged around 500 yards per game. However, it's going to take time to build that chemistry, and that's where we ultimately see the door being open for the Warriors to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. The Warriors lost at Vanderbilt last weekend, but covered the spread. Stanford is a total rebuild and there are so many question marks, that we expect the home side to be able to move the ball and be competitive. We'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but all signs point to a much more competitive battle than what this spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is Hawaii! AAA Sports |
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09-01-23 | Louisville -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 39-34 | Loss | -108 | 127 h 12 m | Show |
10* Louisville (ACC GOM) It would be difficult for Georgia Tech to be any worse than it was last year, so it will for sure be improved this season. However, that improvement is relative of course. Louisville does have plenty of new faces, including at head coach (Jeff Brohm) and defensive coordinator (Ron English), but the defense finished No. 1 in the nation in sacks last year, and this unit will have its way with the ACC's worst offensive line in tackles allowed for a loss. QB Jack Plummer has plenty of talent around him as well. These are the types of games that Louisville needs to run up the score on early, to allow its backups and wannabe's quality playing time in the fourth quarter; lay the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -7.5 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -108 | 106 h 2 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (BIG TEN GOM) Minnesota was 9-4 last season, and it won the Pinstripe Bowl. The Gophers averaged 28.2 points per game, while allowing 13.8. Nebraska went 4-8 and failed to make a bowl appearance. It gave up 27.6 points per game, while averaging only 22.6 per contest. The Gophers are interestingly 5-3 ATS in their last eight as a 7.5-point favorite. Nebraska will be a lot better under Matt Rhule, and tranfer Jeff Simms is a dangerous play-maker. Defense is an issue again this year though. This game will once again be decided in the trenches (Minnesota won this game 20-13 last year, unable to cover the large 14.5-point spread.) Nebraska's lines on both sides of the ball will need some work to get up to speed. Look for Minnesota's tough defense to be the difference-maker; lay the points on the Gophers! AAA Sports |
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08-26-23 | San Jose State v. USC -30 | Top | 28-56 | Loss | -108 | 558 h 23 m | Show |
10* USC (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) If USC is going to take the next step as a program, it has to take advantage of these early season games, and hammer their lesser competition over the first three quarters, to give the backups and younger kids some real game time in the fourth, including Malachi Nelson and Miller Moss, among various other high-profile back-ups. It would be a massive wasted opportunity if the Trojans don't approach this game seriously and absolutely lay the hammer down over the first three quarters. SJSU finished 7-4 overall and 4-7 ATS last year. With plenty of new faces, we expect the Spartans to struggle in this difficult road venue; lay the points, the play is the Trojans! AAA Sports |
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08-26-23 | Ohio +3.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 558 h 48 m | Show |
10* Ohio (NON-CONF GOM) SDSU finished 7-6 overall last year and 5-3 vs. the Mountain West. In the end the Aztecs fell 25-23 to MTSU in the Hawaii Bowl last year. Ohio finished 2022 with a 10-4 record, and was 7-1 vs. the MAC. The Bobcats then went on to win the Barstool Arizona Bowl by a score of 30-27 in OT over Wyoming. Tim Albin won the MAC Coach of the year and quarterback Kurtis Rourke earned MAC Offensive Play of the year as well. With another tough game at home vs. LIU next week, we're expecting the Bobcats to be on top of their Game in Week 0. With a "cream puff" vs. Idaho State next, we're expecting the home side to get caught "looking ahead." While we feel the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Ohio! AAA Sports |
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01-22-23 | Bengals v. Bills -4.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 2 m | Show |
10* Bills (DIVISIONAL GOY) The Bills are the correct call this weekend in my opinion. Say what you want, these teams are almost mirror images of each other. Let's be honest, it would not be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these team's to come out on top and deliver the goods this weekend. If you're betting on this game, then you know the cast of characters on each side. You know how each of these team's got to this point and you know what their strengths and weaknesses are. I think the Bills benefit greatly from playing at home in this divisional matchup, and ultimatley I expect this big factor to be the difference-maker in the outcome of this contest. Lay the points, the play is Buffalo! AAA Sports |
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01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs +3 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -115 | 172 h 50 m | Show |
10* Bucs (WILDCARD GOY) I think the correct call on Monday night is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa actually closed out the regular season in better form that Dallas. The Cowboys lost their final two games. Tampa clinched vs. Carolina in Week 17 in Brady's best game of the season, and then they went into half of their Week 18 matchup vs. the Falcons with a 17-10 lead, before then sitting all their starters in the second half. Brady's been waiting all year for the playoffs and his team is healthier now that it's been all season. These teams played in Arlington in Week 1 and the Bucs won by a score of 19-3. Dallas is just 1-5 ATS the last six in this series. The Bucs have a good run defense, so it turns Prescott's offense really one-dimensional. Clearly, the outright win isn't out of the question, but let's grab the points; the play is Tampa Bay! AAA Sports |
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01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars +2.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Jaguars (ASSASSIN) I like the Jags to win this game outright, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. They won six of their last seven games overall, and four straight at home. They have a really potent and balanced offensive attack, which I think Justin Herbert and company will have difficulties keeping up to down the stretch. Jacksonville hammered the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3 as 6.5-point underdogs. The Chargers have won four of their last five, but they're just 2-2 in their last four road games. I say that home field is a big advantage today for Jacksonville! AAA Sports |
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01-08-23 | Lions +5 v. Packers | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 31 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUNDAY NIGHT SPECIAL on the Lions. The winner will move onto the playoffs, and the loser will go home. Detroit smashed the Bears 41-10 last week and now the Lions need to beat Green Bay and have the Hawks lose to the Rams to qualify, while the Packers only need to win this game to earn a spot. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. Detroit will actually know its fate, as Seattle plays earlier in the day, but regardless, I expect the Lions to come out play until the final whistle in this one no matter the scenario. Look for the prideful Lions to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover! AAA Sports |
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01-08-23 | Giants v. Eagles -14 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
10* EAGLES (NFC EAST GOM) The Giants are locked into their spot whether they win or lose. Despite that though, a majority of the wagers are on the Giants to play "spoiler" here. New York will almost assuredly rest most or all of its starters. The Eagles have everything to play for here, as they need to win, or have both the Cowboys and 49ers lose to clinch top spot in the NFC overall. Whoever gets the call under center for the Eagles (Minshew or Hurts), I love the home side to dominate through all three phases of this game. The Giants are just thrilled their in the playoffs, it's been a massive turnaround for the G-Men. Look for the Eagles to go up early and to keep the pedal to the metal until the final whistle; lay the points, the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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01-08-23 | Bucs v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 35 m | Show |
10* Falcons (NFC SOUTH GOM) Atlanta actually opened up as a 7.5-point favorite, and this one has since dropped to right around 4.5. I see a lot of public money on the Bucs here despite the fact that they'll almost assuredly rest most or all of their starters after clinching the NFC South last weekend. I'd say, let's give this one the good ole eye test this weekend. I'm going to go contrarian here. I think the public is wrong on this one. Tom Brady and Mike Evans got their act together last week to clinch, but overall this has been a really difficult year for the Bucs. And that's for many different reasons obviously, but injury was the biggest reason for the slight step back this year for Tampa Bay. The Falcons are 6-10 after beating the Cardinals 20-19 last weekend. Atlanta could have easily thrown in the towel, but its still playing hard here at the end of the year. It also plays with revenge here after a 21-15 loss to Tampa in Week 5. I think Desmond Ridder and the Falcons are the correct call. This is their SUPER BOWL, final home game of the season, there's no way they lose this one to the Buccaneers backups; lay the points, the play is the Falcons! AAA Sports |
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01-07-23 | Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
10* Titans (WINNER) The AFC South all comes down to this. The winner moves on and the loser goes home. The Jaguars have won five of their last six, including four straight. Trevor Lawrence has been nearly unstoppable. Tennessee has lost six straight, but the one thing the Titans have going for them I guess is that they last played the following Thursday in a 27-13 loss at home to Dallas, so they'e had a couple extra days off. And that should help running back Derrick Henry, but it's not going to bring back quarterback Ryan Tannehill. That means that Josh Dobbs will make his second straight start for the Titans. The Titans to their credit rested a lot of their starters in last week's loss, knowing that it was do or die here in Week 18. One other thing the Titans have going for them is that they also do play with revenge here as they lost 36-22 at home as three-point favorites back in Week 14 to the Jaguars. The bottom line here though is that in my opinion Henry is such a great player for Tennessee that I think he can single-handidly keep his team in this one (he rushed for 121 yards on 7.1 yards per carry in the last loss.) Dobbs should be able to improve on his effort in last week's loss, he was 20 of 39 for 232 passing yards, a touchdown and an interception. The Titans are quite good against the run as well, which should limit Travis Etinne this week. Lawrence and the Jaguars are in uncharted territory and I've been on Jacksonville a few times during this recent run, but I think Tennessee offers great value here in an upset role. While I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Titans in what I believe will be war until the final whistle! AAA Sports |
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01-02-23 | Tulane +2.5 v. USC | Top | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 646 h 18 m | Show |
10* Tulane (BOWL GOY) USC comes in off a tragic 47-24 loss to Utah in the PAC 12 Championship Game and I think it'll just go through the motions here after that disapointment. A trip to the College Football Playoff was on the line, but the Utes managed an impressive second victory of the season over the over-rated Trojans. Listen, I get it, USC can score. The Trojans average 41.1 PPG, which ranks third in the country. The issue is clearly on the defensive end. Overall I think the PAC 12 is a week Conference. Tulane comes in off an impressive 45-28 destruction of UCF to earn the AAC title and finish 11-2. The Green Wave are more motivated and hungry here. They average 35.2 PPG, but they have a superior defense. USC QB Caleb Williams was injured in the loss to Utah, and if he does play in this one, clearly he won't be at 100%; while I do think the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Green Wave! AAA Sports |
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01-01-23 | Jets -1.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
10* Jets (CONTRARIAN CRUSHER) This is a HUGE game for both sides. Both need a victory here to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Jets Lost 19-3 to the Jaguars last week and they've lost four in a row. Seattle is off a 24-10 loss at Kansas City, and it's lost three straight. In Mike White's three starts for New York though, the Jets are averaging 21.7 PPG and 420.3 yards. The Jets are great defensively as well, allowing just 18.8 points and 309.3 YPG. I think Geno Smith, who started out the season brilliantly but who has predictably faded over the last few weeks with his performance, will once again have a difficult time moving the ball as well. Seattle concedes a terrible 25.3 PPG. Look for the Jets to take full advantage; lay the short points! AAA Sports |
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12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 602 h 60 m | Show |
10* Michigan (DEC BOWL 'GOM') TCU messed up in its 31-28 loss at home to TCU. Or did it? It's still in the College Football Playoff, but I think the loss is a precursor to more of a decline here at the end of the month. The Horned Frogs average 40.3 PPG, but they were handled well by the Wildcats' defense, which doesn't bode well facing this aggressive Wolverines unit. Michigan comes in fired up after its 43-22 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game, going on to easily cover the 16 point spread. Michigan averages 40.1 PPG, but as I mentioned above, it's defense is superior in my opinion, and much more battle tested when you look at the level of competition. The win at Ohio State was epic. The Wolverines are well-coached and I expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover and win; lay the points, the play is the Wolverines! AAA Sports |
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12-30-22 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
10* South Carolina (ASSASSIN) If you want a full review of how each team did throughout the year, there's literally tens of millions of "review" articles out there. ESPN etc. If you simply want to know why I think South Carolina will win this game, then you've come to the right place. I like being succinct with my analysis, as I truly believe the clients who purchase this information, would rather just "get to the point," than read an entire "novel" of why I believe one side or another should win. Both teams finished up strong, but without Notre Dame's best player in this one, Mayer, and its starting QB Pyne, the value here swings to the Gamecocks. South Carolina's offense started to hit its stride at the end of the season, scoring more than 30 points in its final two games. While the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Gamecocks! AAA Sports |
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12-29-22 | Washington v. Texas -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Texas (ATS BLOOD-BATH) The Longhorns finished 8-4 after beating Kansas and Baylor to end the regular season. Their two best RB's will be out for this one, and that's why this spread is so low. Despite that though, I like the rest of this team to step up and deliver the goods. Quinn Ewers has a big opportunity now to showcase his talents for Texas under center, and I think he'll be a big difference-maker in this Bowl game. The Longhorns defense was great as well, limiting teams to just 21.2 PPG. Washington is 10-2. It closed out the season with a 51-33 win over WSU in the Apple Cup. QB Michael Penix Jr. was decent, but he struggles against aggressive pass-rushing defenses like the Longhorns. The Huskies defense concedes 26.3 PPG as well. Look for TEXAS to do just enough to secure the win and cover! AAA Sports |
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12-29-22 | Cowboys v. Titans +13 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Titans. Dallas came from behind to knock off PHiladelphia at home by a score of 40-34 last weekend, but I think it'll struggle to cover this large spread on the road and on the short week, despite the personel issues that Tennessee has right now. The Cowboys looked terrible defensively last week. The Titans are still in the mix for a playoff spot, sitting at 7-8 and in second place in the AFC SOuth. They've lost five straight games, but note that they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU losses. The Titans lost 19-14 to an improved Texans team last week with Malik Willis under center. I think the rookie benefits from that experience and will be much more efficient this evening though; look for the hungry Titans to play with pride, and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grabe the points! AAA Sports |
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12-26-22 | New Mexico State +3.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
10* New Mexico State (BOWL WINNER) While I do think the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. New Mexico State finished 6-6, crushing Valparaiso 65-3 in its season finale. Bowling Green also finished 6-6. They lost 38-14 to Ohio in their final regular season contest. The Aggies are averaging 25.6 PPG. QB Diego Pavia had 17 total TD's this year. New Mexico State has a decent defense as well that concedes 24.3 PPG. Bowling Green averages 23.8 PPG, while allowing 33.3. The line has moved a lot in this one because of transfers etc, but in a contest that I still see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is New Mexico State! AAA Sports |
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12-25-22 | Bucs -7.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
10* Bucs (ASSASSIN) It's hard to imagine the Cardinals putting up much of a fight. On the flip-side though, Tom Brady and the Bucs have a golden opportunity here to start to turn things around, as they still have the division lead in the weak NFC South. If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I base my picks on many different things. Sometimes I break it down, looking at individual player matchups, take into account every detail I can get my hands on, and other times I think the "eye test," of the "KISS" method (Keep It Simple Stupid!), is the best approach. And that's the case here. Arizona has nothing to play for here except the role of spoiler, and I just can't see its patchwork line-up being able to do anything though. Give me Brady and the hungry Bucs in their most important game of the season! AAA Sports |
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12-24-22 | Bengals v. Patriots +3 | Top | 22-18 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
10* Patriots (BLOCKBUSTER) Who does this game mean more to? As far as the playoff picture is concerned, there's no question that it means more to the home side. I think that motivation will be enough to, at the very least, secure the comfortable ATS cover. Cincinnati is off the 34-23 beatdown win over the Bucs, while New England fell to 7-7 after a 30-24 loss to the Raiders. The Bengals return home after this to finish of their season, with games against Buffalo and Baltimore. I say the visiting side gets classically caught "looking ahead," while I do expect Mac Jones and company to risk life and limb to keep their team's hopes alive; grab the points, the play is New England! AAA Sports |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars +2 v. Jets | Top | 19-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Jaguars (ASSASSIN) Both teams are fighting for the playoff lives, but Jacksonville is the one that enters with a ton of momentum and I expect that to be the difference. The Jets lost at home to Detroit by a score of 29-17 in their most recent action, while the Jags rallied for a huge 40-24 OT win at home over Dallas. The Jags have gone 4-2 ATS in their last six. QB Trevor Lawrence is now unstoppable. At least he's sure been playing like that over the last month and a half. New York is just 3-3 at home. It only averages 20.1 PPG. The early magic it had at the start of the season is gone. The constant change at QB is helping things either in my opinion. Look for the Jags to continue their improbable run to the playoffs with another "shocker" on Thursday night; grab the points, the play is Jacksonville! AAA Sports |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Air Force (BLOCKBUSTER) The Baylor Bears finished 6-6, while the Air Force Falcons finished 9-3. Air Force runs the triple-option on offense, with 90% of its plays coming via the run. The Falcons won their last four games and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. Baylor started the season 6-3, but then it dropped its final three games of the season. I have a hard time seeing the Bears slowing down Brad Roberts, who was the No. 3 ranked rusher in the FBS this year with 1,612 yards for the Falcons. Baylor QB Blake Sharpen and its RB Richard Reese faded down the stretch with poor showings against K-State, TCU and Texas. The Falcons have lost three of their games by a total of 15 points. Too many changes for the Bears line-up as well right now. Look for Air Force to control the tempo of this one; the play is the Falcons! AAA Sports |
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12-20-22 | Toledo -3.5 v. Liberty | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Toledo (BLOCKBUSTER) The Flames are 8-4, while the Rockets are 8-5. Liberty lost its last regular season game to New Mexico State by a score of 49-14. Former head coach Hugh Freeze is gone to take over at Auburn, and a few players left via the transfer portal. The Flames have a tough defense that holds its opposition to just 4.9 yards per play, but a few of their top defenders are gone. Toledo has had less issues to deal with off the field, but on the field there's still a concern for starting QB Dequan Finn. The Rockets last played in the MAC Championship and won 17-7 over Ohio. They racked up 11 penalties for 79 yards in the victory. Finn will not be at 100% health for this contest, but I still think he's the safe bet here against this Liberty team that's missing its head coach, and several key players on both sides of the ball; lay the points, the play is Toledo! AAA Sports |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Bills | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* Dolphins (ASSASSIN) The first game between these division rivals was a tightly contested affair, and I expect today's contest to be the same. The Dolphins beat the Bills 21-19 as four-point dogs at home at the start of the season, but off B2B SU/ATS losses, I look for the Fish to bounce back here in this important game. The Bill are 4-0 SU their last four, but just 1-3 ATS. They continue to get overvalued by the bookmakers in my opinion, as they've not been able to create much late seperation from their opposition late in games. I expect this trend to continue here vs. this talented divisional opponent. It's the whole "snow" thing going on here today, but I'm not buying into it. The outright is a possiblity as well, but I'm grabbing the points with the Dolphins in the end! AAA Sports |
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12-17-22 | Rice +6.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* Rice (BLOCKBUSTER) Rice lost its last three games of the year, but I expect it to dig deep and to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AJ Padjett has only started one game under center for the Owls this year, but he'll be complimented by leading runner Cameron Montgomery, and leading receiver Bradley Rozier. SMU started the season 5-3, but it closed out by going just 1-3. Southern Miss started three different QB's, and that was difficult. Trey Lowe had six TD's and seven INT's. Frank Gore Jr. had 1,053 rushing yards. Padgett is the correct call here, who will have an extra two weeks or reps before this bowl game; no outright, but a nailbiter, so grab the points! AAA Sports |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 21-13 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
10* Hawks (ASSASSIN) I love Seattle in this spot. Yes, the Hawks have stumbled the last couple of weeks, but I expect them to stop the bleeding here and to avenge an earlier loss to San Francisco. It's a "must win" game for the Hawks if they have any hopes of locking a division title. Brock Purdy was amazing in his first start last week for San Francisco, dismantling the Bucs, but now on his first true road game here in frigid Seattle, I'm expecting a big time letdown here. I say Geno Smith is the correct call here on the short week and on his own field. I truly believe the outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points with Seattle! AAA Sports |
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12-12-22 | Patriots -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
10* Patriots (ASSASSIN) I just think that Kyler Murray and the Cards have thrown in the towel on the season and I expect them to simply "go through the motions" today. Arizona lost 25-24 to the Chargers in its most recent matchup, and off that terrible letdown, I expect a half-hearted effort here today. The Patriots are well-coached and the better overall team in my opinion. I expect a clinical performance from Bellichick's team today. Look for New England to grind out the win and cover on the National stage! AAA Sports |
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12-11-22 | Dolphins v. Chargers +3.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* Chargers (AFC SIDE OF MONTH) It's a "must win" game for the Chargers, and I think they'll, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Dolphins are off the 33-17 loss at San Francisco, snapping a five-game win streak. They're still 8-4. They have a tough game at Buffalo next week, so they'll have to be cautious here to not get caught "looking ahead" to that difficult divisional matchup. The Chargers are now 6-6 after last week's 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as 2.5-point underdogs. They're still well behind the 9-3 Chiefs, but note that they're 7-3 ATS in their last ten as a home underdog in the +3 to +4.5 points range. While the outright win is possible, I'm grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Saints (ASSASSIN) This division is weak. Any team that goes on a run right now still has an opportunity to take it. That includes 4-8 New Orleans. But it lost the first game to the Bucs at home by a score of 20-10, so that actually makes this a "must win" game for New Orleans to keep its playoff hopes alive. Both teams are struggling in many regards, but the Saints actually are averaging more points than the Bucks (20.8 compared to 18.2.) Their defenses are similar. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever of these desperate teams has it hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is New Orleans! AAA Sports |
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12-04-22 | Chiefs -1.5 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 31 m | Show |
10* Chiefs (NON-DIV GOM) It's a big matchup here, but one that I believe favors Patrick Mahomes and the visiting Chiefs. KC is now 9-2 after pulling way for a 26-10 win over the Rams last week. They average 29.6 PPG, which is ranked No. 1 in the league. The Bengals aren't too far behind in averaging 25.9. Cincinnati is now 7-4 after last week's 20-16 road win at Tennessee as a 1-point favorite. This is a revenge game for the Chiefs, who fell 27-24 in OT as 7-point favorites in last year's AFC Championship Game. They say that revenge is a dish "best served cold," and I couldn't agree more. KC has once again moved to the top of the food chain in the AFC and I look for the Chiefs to go up early, and to keep the foot on the gas until the final whistle; the play is KC! AAA Sports |
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12-03-22 | LSU v. Georgia -17 | Top | 30-50 | Win | 100 | 72 h 39 m | Show |
10* Georgia (SEC GOM) I like No. 1 Georgia to lay the hammer down on No. 11 LSU today and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish with no mercy. Georgia is of course the defending champ and it's trying to win back-to-back SEC Championships for the first time since all the way back in 1980. Experience does count in these games, and this is the Bulldogs fifth trip to this game in the last six years. First-year head coach Brian Kelly led LSU to an unexpected SEC West division championship and I believe he and his team are in over their heads here this weekend. Georgia may only be 6-6 ATS this year, but it's 3-0 ATS when favored by 20 or less points this season. Georgia has a great run game and LSU struggles against good run teams; lay the points, the play is the Bulldogs! AAA Sports |
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12-02-22 | North Texas +9 v. UTSA | Top | 27-48 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
10* UNT (CONF-USA GOM) UNT is 7-5. It averages 34.5 PPG, which ranks 25th in the country. It beat Rice 21-17 in its finale. It faced UTSA in Week 8 and lost 31-27 on the road as a ten-point underdog. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting another really tight and close battle here today as well. UTSA is 10-2. It averages 37.9 PPG. It held on for the 34-31 win over UTEP at home as a 16.5-point favorite in its final game. UNT's aggressive defense and strong run will once again keep it competitive late. I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, but all signs point to this one being MUCH closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is UNT! AAA Sports |
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11-27-22 | Chargers v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
10* Cardinals (ASSASSIN) Both teams NEED a win here. This is a crucial week for both the Chargers and the Cardinals, but I can't overstate how important I believe that the home field factor will be for Arizona this week. That hasn't been the case so far to this point, as the Chargers are 5-0 ATS on the road, and the Cards are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS at home. Look for these lop-sided numbers to normalize over the second half of the season though. LA enters having lost three of its last four and despite probably having the better QB in Justin Herbert on the field, I just don't trust this LA team on the road. Cards' coach Kliff Kingsbury is on the hot seat, likely needing a win here to keep his job. Kyler Murray has missed the last two weeks, but he returns now this weekend. I think the pivot will be a difference-maker this weekend. The majority of the money is on LA here, but I look for this underachieving Cardinals team to dip deep and deliver at home; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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11-26-22 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +14 | Top | 56-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Vanderbilt (SEC GOW) Tennessee can ill afford to take the foot off the gas at 9-2 on the final game of the year, but I do expect the Vols to do just that in the second half. Will 5-6 Vanderbilt pull off the epic upset and win this game outright? Highly unlikely, but I do absolutely believe that the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. The Vols come in off a crippling 63-38 loss at South Carolina. The Commodores actually pulled off a similar upset last week, beating Florida 31-24 at home as a 13.5-point underdog. Now here on Senior Night and the final game of the season, I'm expecting Vanderbilt to put up another fight until the end here as well; grab the points, the play is the Commodores! AAA Sports |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
10* MISSOURI (SEC GOM) At this time of year, we have to be cerebral with our wagers. This is a great "situational" wager, and that, along with a couple of strong trends that support my position, is what I'm basing this selection on. Arkansas just became bowl eligible in last week's 42-27 win over Ole Miss as a one-point underdog. After that emotional win on "Seniors Night," I'm expecting a predictable letdown here. The Razorbacks average 31 PPG, while the 5-6 Missouri Tigers average 25.2 Missouri kept its bowl hopes alive in last week's 45-14 destruction of New Mexico State. The Tigers have an opportunity to become bowl eligibleon Senior Night themselves, while at the same time avenging a 34-17 loss to Arkansas last season; the outright is clearly possible, but grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
10* Mississippi State (ASSASSIN) The big news surrounding this game is that Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has been rumoured about taking the job at Auburn as early as this Friday. He's denied those rumors, but this is just a big circus now for Mississippi, a distraction that I think Mississippi State can take advantage of. Ole Miss is 8-3, but it's not playing its best football of the season right now either having lost three of its last four. That includes a 42-27 loss at Arkansas as a 1-point favorite last week. I think Mike Leach and the Bulldogs can take advantage. Mississippi State is 7-4. It's off a 56-7 win over East Tennessee State as a 39-point favorite. It averages 33.5 points per game. Will Rogers is having another solid year, and that doesn't bode well for a Rebels secondary that allows a lot underneath stuff and which is actually ranked 111th in the country in opponent completion percentage and 95th in opponent QB passer rating. The Bulldogs on the other hand have steadily improved defensively throughout the season, as they now rank 14th in the country in takeaways. I think the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points; the play is MISSISSIPPI STATE! AAA Sports |
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11-22-22 | Bowling Green +6.5 v. Ohio | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* Bowling Green (MAC GOW) Ohio has its sights set on the Conference title game, and I think could stumble here with the finish line in sight. Bowling Green became eligible last week at 6-5 after beating Toledo 42-35 as a 15-point underdog. The Green Falcons did it on the road as well. Ohio is off the 32-18 win at Ball State. Ohio is the better team, but Bowling Green comes in with a lot of momentum. I think this is a factor that the oddsmakers often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line, and that's the case here in this one tonight. While the outright is possible, I'm going to suggest to grab as many points as you can; the play is Bowling Green! AAA Sports |
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11-19-22 | San Jose State v. Utah State +2.5 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
10* Utah State (MW GOY) San Jose State is 6-3. It's eligible. It's coming off a 43-27 lss at SDSU. The Spartans average 27.1 PPG. They have a much "easier" game at home to end the season against Hawaii next weekend. Utah State is 5-5. It averages 22.1 PPG. It's coming off a much-needed 41-34 win at Hawaii last weekend. With a game at conference leading Boise State to end the season, this becomes a "must win" for Utah State if it hopes to go "Bowling." It's a great situational play here. Utah State will carry over its offensive momentum from last week and while I clearly believe the outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
10* PACKERS (GOW) I think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers turned a corner in last week's 31-28 OT win at home over Dallas. Now 4-6 and in second in the NFC North, I believe Rodgers is the correct call here on the short wek at home. The Titans are off the 17-10 home win over Denver, but after eight straight ATS covers, I say Tennessee is getting too much respect here now on the road vs. the desperate home side. Green Bay's defense is underrated as well, allwoing 21.6 points and 320.3 YPG. I think Green Bay is the correct call here; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3.5 | Top | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
10* Tulane (ASSASSIN) SMU is 6-4 and Tulane is now 8-2 after falling 38-31 to UCF last week. Tulane does still have a shot at a New Year's Six bowl, so there's still lots on the line for Tulane this weekend as well. SMU has reeled off three straight wins. Its offense has looked great in the victories, scoring 163 points, which included a 77-63 win over Houston two weeks ago. And then last week's 41-23 victory at home over USF as well. But this would appear to be a classic trap or letdown spot after becoming bowl eligible last weekend. The SMU offense has been great, but the defense has been terrible. Tulane is tied with Cincinnati for second in the AAC ahead of their meeting next weekend. The Wave simply can't afford to look past their opponent today. The big question here is if this normally stout Tulane defense can bounce back after last weekend's atypical performance. This hasn't been a great spot for SMU bettors, as the Mustangs are just 1-3 against the spread as an underdog this season (in fact SMU has lost all four games outright as an underdog as well this year.) UCF's defense is a lot better than SMU's. The Green Wave have a balanced offense, which includes a top 40 red zone touchdown percentage. This is a much better matchup for Tulane's defense this week. It's also a better matchup for its offense. SMU's defense is just downright terrible, it simply can't stop anyone. And yes, SMU's offense has looked great over the last three games, but the three defenses it's faced in those victories are all outside the top 100 on the defensive side of the ball; I expect the Green Wave to get back on track in this favorable matchup, so lay the points! AAA Sports |
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11-15-22 | Ohio v. Ball State +4 | Top | 32-18 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Ball State (MAC GOW) This is a big game for both teams. Ohio is 8-3, while Ball State needs one more win to become bowl eligible at 5-5. The Bobcats are 2-3 on the road and the Cardinals are 3-2 at home. Ball State fell 28-21 at Toledo last weekend, going on to cover with the large 13.5-point spread. Ohio earned the 27-21 win at Miami Ohio as a 2-point favorite. The Bobcats are tied with Toledo now for the conference lead, so they have their "eyes on the prize" as far as the conference championship is concerned. That said, this is Ball State's final home game of the year, before a tough final game at Miami Ohio next week to finish things off. This one sets up great for Ball State from a situtional stand-point. I do think the outright win is possible, but let's grab the points; the play is indeed on Ball State! AAA Sports |
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11-13-22 | Chargers +7 v. 49ers | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 104 h 57 m | Show |
10* Chargers (UNDERDOG GOY) Everyone and their dog will be on San Francisco this weekend. The Chargers are 5-3 this year, including 3-1 on the road. The 49ers are 4-4, including 2-1 at home. LA is injured, but it managed to rally and hold on for a big win over an improved Falcons team. Winning in the NFL is hard. No matter who you play against. ATL has come a long way this season and so the fact that Justin Herbert was able to rally his team for the victory, with a depleted receiving corps is impressive to me. The Chargers are right behind KC at 6-2 for the division lead. Yes, San Francisco comes out of its bye week healthier now than it's been in a long time, but chemistry is still an issue on offense, despite the talent it has. The Chargers have a tough game at home against Kansas City next week. Theyll be an underdog at home in that one. This is a game that the Chargers can't look past. San Fran though? It has a divisional game as well next weekend, but it's across the pond in England against the Cardinals. I say this one comes down to whichever team has it hands on the ball last; grab the points, the play is the Chargers! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | North Texas v. UAB -5.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UNT is now bowl eligible after crushing FIU by a score of 52-14 at home last weekend. While 4-1 at home though, the Mean Green are just 2-3 on the road. UAB is 4-5 and it needs two more wins to become eligible, with three games remaining. Last weekend it lost 44-38 at home to UTSA in OT. The Blazers though are 4-1 at home and I'm expecting them to bounce back here. Note that UNT is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a SU/ATS home win of 30 or more points. Look for UNT to suffer a classic mental "letdown" here after last week's bowl-eligibility clinching victory, and expect UAB to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Panthers (ASSASSIN) In a contest that I see being decided by whichever side has it hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Carolina is just 2-7, while Atlanta is slightly better at 4-5. ATL is just 1-3 on the road, most recently falling 20-17 to the Chargers on Sunday. The Panthers are off a 42-21 loss to a now red hot Bengals team. Atlanta comes in disappointed, as it had the lead going into the fourth-quarter in its last game, and now it has a quick turnaround here. ATL narrowly edged the Panthers in the first matchup less than two weeks ago, so the immediate revenge factor comes into play here for Carolina. The Falcons are 32nd against the pass, so that'll give PJ Walker some opportunties on his home field today. These teams are indeed evenly matched, but with the majority of the money on ATL, I'm going contrarian here today as well; grab the points, the play is Carolina! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | Tulsa +6.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (GOW) The Tigers are 4-5, and the Golden Hurricanes are 3-6. Tulsa will have to run the table to become eligible, while Memphis is now running out of time. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Tulsa has lost two in a row, most recently fall 27-13 to Tulane. Braylon Braxton had 146 passing yards and a TD. Last year Tulsa was in the same position, needing three wins to become eligible, and it did just that. Memphis comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. Most recently it was a heart-breaking 35-28 loss to UCF. Seth Henigan had 284 passing yards and a TD. But with a defense that is allowing 412 yards per game, I just don't trust the home side to cover this spread; grab thep points, the play is Tulsa! AAA Sports |
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11-09-22 | Kent State -2.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
10* KENT STATE (MAC GOY) Kent State is 3-6. It's 0-5 on the road. It's favored here, but will need to "run the table" to become eligible. One game at a time. Bowling Green is off a tight 13-9 win over Western Michigan last week, unable to cover the 5-point spread. The Falcons are now 5-4 with three games remaining. Bowling Green averages 24.9 PPG, while Kent State averages 27.4. The Golden Flashes are off a 27-20 home loss to Ball State. Marquez Coper has 1,013 rushing yards and and nine rushing TD's. Bowling Green was "lucky" to win last time out after turning the ball over three times. Kent State's offense will prove to be the difference-maker here; lay the points, the play is the Golden Flashes! AAA Sports |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Saints (BLOOD-BATH) Two teams in need of a win collide here on Monday night. A non-conference matchup, but it's one that I think favors the hungrier home side. Clearly, the outright win isn't out of the question, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The Ravens are 5-3, and the Saints are 3-5. New Orleans can move into a three-way tie with Atlanta and Tampa Bay with a win today. Baltimore if off a 27-22 win over Tampa Bay as an underdog, but with its bye week after this, followed by several favorable games to end the season, including at home against Carolina, at Jacksonvillle and at home to Denver on the immediate horizon, I say this sets up as a natural "look ahead" spot. As I said earlier, clearly the outright is in the cards, but let's grab the points; the play is New Orleans! AAA Sports |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 57 h 39 m | Show |
10* Bucs (NFC GOY) Clearly, neither team can be happy with where it's at at the moment. The Rams are 3-4 and the Bucs are 3-5. LA lost a crucial game last week in a 31-14 setback to the Rams and I believe it'll have its hands full here now on the road against this desperate Bucs team. The Rams are in a competitive division, with Seattle leading the way at 5-3. Despite Tampa's recent struggles, it's fortunate to be in second place right now, behind 4-4 Atlanta for the NFC South lead. Injuries since training camp have been the main reason behind Tom Brady and the Bucs' issues this year. Both teams have struggled offensively, and been decent on the defensive end. Tampa's offensive line issues are for sure a problem, but the unit catches a break here facing this inconsistent rams defense. I say this one means so much more to Brady and the home side on so many different levels; it may not be pretty, but I look for Tampa to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -119 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
10* Cardinals (ASSASSIN) We've reached the point of the season where we can look at what teams have done over recent weeks, to help predict what we think will happen in the future. I base my picks on many different things. One factor that I always take into consideration is the "revenge" factor, especially when it comes to divisional matchups. Divisional matchups are always the most important, and they almost always mean more to the home side. And that's the case here in both cases for the Cardinals. Arizona is now 3-5 after its 34-26 loss at Minnesota last weekend. Seattle is 5-3 after its 27-13 win over the Giants at home last weekend. Arizona does indeed play with revenge here after a 19-9 Week 6 loss in Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. Seattle's been great, but it's overachieving. With a game against Tampa Bay in London next week, this sets up as an unfortunate look ahead spot for the Hawks' organization. I like Murray to settle down here at home and find a way to deliver; the play is Arizona! AAA Sports |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington -4.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
10* WASHINGTON (PAC 12 GOM) Both teams are 6-2. Oregon State is 2-1 on the road, while Washington is 5-0 at home. I don't think you can underestimate how important home-field advantage is going to be in this contest though. This is an important game, as each team is 3-2 in conference play, so the loser almost assuredly will be out of the running for a PAC 12 title spot. The Beavers come in with momentum after three straight victories, but note that Oregon State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after three or more straight victories ina row. Oregon State is led by Damien Martinez and a ground attack that averages 195 YPG. The defense is decent as well, conceding 22.8 PPG. Washington is off its bye as well. It beat Cal 28-21 last time out. Michael Penix Jr. had 374 yards passing and two TD's. Oregon State stumbled against USC and Utah and I expect the same thing to happen here on the road; lay the points, the play is the Huskies! AAA Sports |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans +14 | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 9 m | Show |
10* Texans (ASSASSIN) We've had some pretty terrible Thursday night matchups so far this season, so I'm a little unsure what to think about this one. On one hand the Eagles have been phenomenal, as they come in at 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. And then we have the Houston Texans, who no one predicted would do anything this year, and everyone was right, as they're just 1-5-1 straight up and 3-3-1 against the spread. The Texans though have been competitive most weeks at least for bettors, and I think that'll be the case again this week. Now of course Philadelphia can't afford to take the foot off the gas, but off the 35-13 home win over Pittsburgh on the short week, I think a small mental letdown isn't out of the realm of possibility for Philly here; especialy with a bye week next week, followed by a game at home against Washignton. I think Davis Mills will have some opportunities in the second half, as I just cant see Philadelphia running the score up in this one. The Eagles will be happy running the ball throughout here, as the Texans are 31st against the run on the defensive side. This is too many points to be giving up on the road on the national stage; no outright, but closer than expected, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals are coming off a 35-17 win over the Falcons last week, posting 537 yards of offense, while limiting ATL to just 214. Cleveland though comes in desperate to snap a four-game slide, most recently falling 23-20 to the Ravens last weekend. The Browns are 2-5 and are in desperate need of a victory. Ja'Marr Chase won't be playing for the Bengals today, so that's a huge blow to the offense. It'll make Cinncy much more one-dimensional. The Browns have been allowing 26.6 PPG, but they catch a break this week. What happens if Cleveland is 2-8 by the time that DeShaun Watson is available to play? They'll already be eliminated from playoff contention, so will they want to put their prize QB in harms way for no reason? Cleveland's offense is ranked sixth overall and I think Nick Chubb and company will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover down the stretch; while the outright is possible, let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 22 m | Show |
10* Rams (NFC WEST GOM) The 3-4 San Francisco 49ers are off a 44-23 home loss to Kansas City. LA is off a 24-10 win over Carolina here at home two weeks ago. Now rested and ready to attack, I think the defending champs are the correct call here in this one. The 49ers got Christian McCaffrey just before last week's game, but he was pretty ineffective. LA will look to take advantage of a defense that conceded 529 yards and an offense that committed three turnovers. The 49ers have had the Rams' number in the past, winning seven of the last eight SU, but now the tables have turned in my opinion. This is an immediate revenge scenario as well, as San Francisco won earlier in the year at home by a score of 24-9. The Rams have made adjustments since then though and the 49ers now have more questions than answers, especially with Jimmy G under center. This Rams' defense is under-rated, and last week the 49ers' defense was exposed; while the outright win isn't out of the question, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with the Rams! AAA Sports |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
10* Patriots (AFC EAST GOY) The Patriots come to town as the more desperate side in this divisional showdown. I think that Bill Bellichick will bring out his best playbook calling today and I expect that to be enough to get the better of the overachieving Jets this weekend. After destroying the Browns 38-15 in Cleveland, New England fell flat in last week's 33-14 home loss to the desperate Bears. The Jets on the other hand won and covered as the favorite on the road in a 16-9 victory at Denver to move to 5-2 and in second in the AFC East, still looking up at the mighty Buffalo Bills. Mac Jones is back under center for New England and I expect him to have his best game of the season so far. New England is only allowing 345.3 yards and 20.9 PPG this season. Jones has uncharacteristically struggled this year. The Jets' offense hasn't been great, as they average only 331.3 YPG, which is ranked 21st. Zach Wilson is not better than Jones in my opinion. The Jets' defense has been good though, allowing 19.6 PPG. This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to win this one, and in scenarios like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog in my opinion; clearly the outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points with the Patriots! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Michigan State +23 v. Michigan | Top | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 125 h 21 m | Show |
10* MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10 GOY) The Spartans'll be out to pull off an outright upset here after dropping four of their last five. MSU is 3-4 overall and just 1-3 in league play. Will 7-0 Michigan then come in complacent and "look past" its lowly opponent? Hammering the Spartans never gets old, but I do think this sets up as a natural "letdown" spot. Next week the Wolverines take on Rutgers. But the Spartans are running out of time and chances here. Michigan's chemistry takes a hit here in my opinion as it comes out of its bye week. Last year MSU pulled off an upset over Michigan in a similar sort of situation. Amd I calling for an outright upset again this season? Of course not. That said, this great situational play has all the makings of an against-the-spread cover of the "rocking chair" variety; grab the points, the play is Michigan State! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Kentucky +12 v. Tennessee | Top | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (BLOCKBUSTER) Kentucky is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility after its 27-17 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago as a 3.5 point underdog. Tennessee is already 7-0 and it has its sights set on bigger things. Tennessee annihilated Tennessee Martin 65 to 24 last weekend as a 38.5-point favorite. Will Levis has been pretty good for the Wildcats though, he actually had his best game of the season in the win over Mississippi State (finishing with a 91.1 QBR.) Running back Chris Rodriguez Junior had his best game also finishing with 197 yards on 31 carries against Mississippi State. Overall the Wildcats average 26.4 points per game, but they've been even better on the defensive side ranked in the top 15 nationally in points allowed. With Georgia on deck next week, obiously Hendon Hooker and the Volunteers have to be careful of not looking past the Wildcats. Tennessee's defensive stats are a bit of a mixed bag, but the Vols don't usually have to be too sharp defensively as they're averaging 50.1 points per game, which is No. 1 in the nation. Kentucky faced a high-powered offense like this already in Ole Miss, and while the Wildcats didn't win that one, they kept the Rebels out of the end zone over the final three quarters. Levis will have some opportunities here against a sub-par Volunteer secondary; I'm not calling for an outright guys, but I think that Kentucky can keep it close! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* BYU (ASSASSIN) We're at Lavell Edwards Stadium for this one. Both teams are on the cusp of eligibility. The East Carolina Pirates are 5-3, and BYU is 4-4. But while East Carolina has won five of its last seven, the Cougars enter on a three-game losing streak. This is a pivotal game for BYU this weekend. Here is a great opponent to go against, because despite the superior record, the Pirates are still just 3-3 in their last six on the road. ECU has a great quarterback in Holton Ahlers, who has 2,435 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Pirates have been pretty good in the run game as well, averaging 165.7 yards per game. Defensively they are giving up 390.7 yards and 24.6 points per game. But as I pointed out, the Pirates definitely play better at home than on the road. And that's the case for BYU as well. The Cougars will hope a little home cooking can turn things around for them. BYU has won five of its last six at home and I'd argue that Jaren Hall has been even better than Ahlers (he has 2,101 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and three interceptions). The ground game has been pretty good as well, averaging 148.4 yards per game. The weakness so far has been on the defensive end for sure obviously, as they allow 30.3 points and 404.9 yards per game. But if you look at East Carolina's schedule to this point, it definitely has not been the toughest. I think the Cougars are the correct call here. I think they're going to play with a major sense of desperation after three straight losses. East Carolina has its bye week after this, and that's followed by three straight really tough games to end the year (at Cincinnati, against Houston and at Temple.) Give me the hungrier and more motivated home side to finally put it all together and post a solid win and cover in this one; the play is BYU! AAA Sports |
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10-27-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 55 h 2 m | Show |
10* RAVENS (NON-CONF GOM) The Bucs are 3-4 and the Ravens are 4-3. I think it's safe to say that neither is thrilled where they are at at this point of the season. Clearly that's the case for Tom Brady and the Bucs, who have had so many different issues to deal with since training camp. And it really doesnt appear as if things are going to get any easier for the the Bucs' super star, ESPECIALLY on the short week right? How can this short week be benefitting Brady at all right now? It's gotta just put added stress onto an already super stressful situation. This has to be is rock bottom for Brady? Losing 21-3 to the Carolina Panthers? There's no question that PJ Walker was the better quarterback on the field of play that day last weekend. I think that LaMar Jackson and the Ravens can smell the blood in the water this week. Jackson actually had his worst game of the season last week, as he completed just nine passes, and they were outgained by Cleveland 336 yards to 254. But a couple of timely scores and a Browns false start on the game tying field goal lifted them to the miraculous 23-20 victory. The Bucs are ripe for the picking here in my opinion ultimately. The offense is broken, the running game is non existent because the offensive line is in shambles. Brady was 32 of 49 for 290 yards last weekend and his average depth of target is just 7.8 this season, by far the lowest of his career.Clearly Baltimore is far from perfect, but I'm going with Jackson here to find a way to get the job done, as I definitely don't trust Brady right now; the play is the RAVENS. AAA Sports |
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10-24-22 | Bears +9 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* BEARS (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams could really use a victory here. Will the Patriots go up early, and then keep the foot on the gas from start to finish? I say no way. I think this game will be decided in the trenches, and by field position. Running and protecting the ball. The Bears are 2-4 and the Patriots are 3-3. It's all hands on deck for Chicago after three straight losses. New England has looked great over the last two weeks, but I think it'll come out flat here after last week's 38-15 victory at Cleveland. So far the Bears are only averaging 15.5 PPG, but they'll have to open up the playbook here and be the aggressors. Justin Fields has 869 passing yards, four TD's and five INT's. The defense for the Bears is ranked 11th, allowing 19.7. New England allows 18.8, while averaging 23.5 of its own. Bailey Zappe has filled in for Mac Jones admirably, but the starter will likely be back under center tonight. Whoever is under center, I expect conservative game calling from Bellichick this evening. I say Chicago throws its best shot and while that may not be good enough to win this game outright, it'll be more than enough to comfortably cover with the large spread that it's been afforded in this one; grab the points, the play is Da Bears! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos +2 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
10* BRONCOS (BLOCKBUSTER) The Jets are not only 4-2 ATS, but they're also 4-2 SU. New York is off an epic 27-10 road win at Green Bay, but I believe it'll have a predictable step back this weekend in Denver. Russell Wilson is out for the Broncos, which is a GREAT thing in my estimation. The pivot has struggled with his new team, and now enters Brett Rypien, who will be given the green light here. The Broncos are still excelling on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 16.5 PPG. I say that Zach Wilson and the Jets finally stumble here; grab the points, the play is Denver! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Packers v. Washington Commanders +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
10* COMMANDERS (ASSASSIN) I think the Packers on the road is the incorrect call here. The Jets demolished Green Bay by a score of 27-10 last weekend, and I think that Taylor Heinickie and the home side can take advantage as well. Green Bay is just 3-3 now. Washington is 2-4 after its 12-7 win at Chicago last weekend. The offense has been inconsistent for Washington, but the defense has been its strength. Aaron Rodgers has struggled against defenses like this already and I think he'll be on the run once again this Sunday afternoon. I don't think the Giants or Jets are even that good. Certainly their defenses aren't. Green Bay is averaging only 17.3 PPG. Here's Heinickie about stepping in for Carson Wentz: "Starting 15 games last year, I feel a lot more comfortable, a lot more confident in what I need to do to win and what not to do to lose.” The majority of bets are on Green Bay, but the majority of the money is on Washington; lets follow the sharp money in this one! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* COLTS (ASSASSIN) Divisional contests are always the most important, and they almost always "mean more" to the home side. Every now and then there's an exception to that "rule" though and that's the case here today in my opinion. Both teams have battled back from shaky starts and enter at 3-2. Indianapolis enters off a 34-27 win over Jacksonville. The Titans barely held on for a tight 21-17 victory over Washington. So far the Colts are averaging 17.2 PPG, while allowing 20.2, while Tennessee is averaging 19.2 PPG, and allowing 23.6. These teams are almost identical in every way, but I'd argue that the Colts have looked a lot better over the last two outings. Especially their offense. Indianapolis lost to Tennessee 24-17 in Week 4 and I expect the revenge factor to play a crucial part here as well; while I clearly believe the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Colts! AAA Sports |
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