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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Sunday afternoon but now I think we're seeing a major overreaction from the books as the total has dropped considerably in advance of Game 2 on Tuesday. The Celtics put up 112 points on Sunday despite getting to the free throw line only eight times, grabbing only three offensive rebounds and knocking down just 13 three-pointers. While they did shoot better than 54% from the field, I actually think there's still some room for improvement. As for the Bucks, they're the one-seed in the East for a reason. Their 35-9 home record is no fluke. They'll make the necessary adjustments and Giannis won't get locked down the way he did in the series opener. Keep in mind, this is a team that scored 119+ in all four games during their opening round sweep of the Pistons. They hung 120 points on the C's in a previous meeting this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 215.5 | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 10:35 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' as the Blazers and Nuggets open their series on Monday night in the Mile High City. Both of these teams opened last round with far lower-scoring games than expected but I look for a different story to unfold here. Keep in mind, the last meeting between these teams reached 223 points and saw a closing total of 219.5 back on April 7th. The Nuggets ended up finishing second-last in the league in pace rating in the opening round of the playoffs, but I fully expect to see that pace pick up against the Blazers. Note that Denver ranks third in the league in offensive rating during the postseason. While the Nuggets overall defensive numbers were fine against the Spurs, they rank just 11th in terms of defensive rating in the playoffs, two spots behind the Blazers first round opponent, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Take the over (10*). |
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04-28-19 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 223.5 | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. While this certainly has the potential to turn into a track meet given all the offensive talent on the floor, I don't see it playing out that way in Sunday's series-opener. Both teams certainly held decisive edges in their first round series' and took full advantage of that winning in the minimum number of games, it is still worth pointing out that the Celtics and Bucks check in first and third respectively in the playoffs in defensive rating. While the Bucks are tops in terms of offensive rating, the Celtics actually sit just 12th (entering last night's action). I do feel that Boston's experience can pay off in this series and remember, the C's did an excellent job defensively against the Bucks in last year's thrilling seven-game series win, barely allowing them to get into the 100's on most nights. Needless to say, this series isn't going to be the cakewalk the Bucks experienced in the opening round. In the series-clincher, they got to the free throw line 41 times and shot better than 54% from the field. Different story here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 208 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Unlike the Jazz-Rockets series which hasn't really come all that close to approaching the total in most games, this series has been different. The two games played in San Antonio actually reached 226 and 220 points, well north of the number we're dealing with tonight. Game 5 totaled only 198 points, but that was with the two teams making good on just 25 free throw attempts and the Spurs shooting 7-of-24 from beyond the arc, a number they should be able to improve on back at home with their season on the line. We've seen the total drop a couple of points from the closing number in Game 5 but I don't believe the move is warranted. In previous years I would look to play the 'under' with inflated totals later in series' but that is no longer the case. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-19 | Pistons v. Heat UNDER 206 | 119-96 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Miami at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in South Beach on Saturday night. The Pistons continue to show out well across the board. Entering last night's action they ranked sixth in the NBA in defensive rating over their last 10 games. The Heat have actually been even better over that same stretch, ranking sixth in the league. Also playing in our favor is the fact that both of these teams rank in the bottom third in the league in terms of pace rating over their last 10 contests. This is a low total by today's NBA standards, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-19 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 233 | 106-111 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Oddly enough, the Rockets haven't been among the league leaders in pace over the last five games, ranking tied for 24th in the league in that department over that stretch. I'm not sure it matters here - I still like the 'over'. That's because the Rockets will be facing a disjointed Lakers defense that ranks 29th in the league in defensive rating over that same five-game stretch. Meanwhile, the Rockets rank third in the league in offensive rating over the last five contests. Given the short pointspread, the oddsmakers do think the Lakers can stay competitive in this game and I tend to agree. With that in mind, I'm anticipating a track meet at Staples Center on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-19 | Team LeBron v. Team Giannis OVER 311 | 178-164 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Team Lebron and Team Giannis at 8 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Rising Stars Game on Friday night and I see no reason not to go right back to the well with the same play in Sunday's All-Star Game. The premise is the same. The two teams are loaded with offensive talent, and in this age of the NBA, we can only anticipate a track meet. There's really no incentive to play much defense in this game. The NBA has become a true offensive showcase and this is the 'grand daddy of them all' so to speak. Expect the losing squad to find its way well into the 150's in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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02-15-19 | World v. USA OVER 290 | 144-161 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Team USA and The World in the NBA Rising Stars Game at 9 pm et on Friday. I believe this total should be set north of 300 points to be completely honest. Track meets have become the norm in this game over the years and the 2019 edition should be no different. Both squads are loaded with talent and perhaps more importantly, athleticism. Last year's game was actually relatively low-scoring, reaching just 279 points as Team USA turned in a disappointing effort. Guys like Kuzma, Mitchell and Tatum are back and should be highly motivated to make amends. Expect a competitive affair all the way, which lends itself to a high-scoring affair in this setting. Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-19 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 216 | 89-127 | Push | 0 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic are red hot right now, having won six of their last seven games overall. However, off a perfect three-game homestand I can't help but think a letdown could be in order. Note that the Hornets actually rank 30th in the league in terms of pace over their last five games. The Magic on the other hand are in a tie for 10th in that department over the same time frame but again a letdown could be on the way here. What has been most impressive about the Magic's recent surge has been their defensive play. They rank third in the league in defensive rating over the last five games, sitting behind only the Pacers and Bucks. Both the Hornets and Magic do rank top 12 in terms of offensive rating over the last five games but both drop off considerably when you stretch that range out to the last 10 games. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-19 | Nets v. Cavs UNDER 221 | 148-139 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Nets last game in Toronto on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears here as Brooklyn makes the short trip to Cleveland to face the Cavs. While it's true the Nets rank number one in the league in pace rating over the last five games, the Cavs rank 27th and should be able to set the tempo to some extent here at home. While Brooklyn has been playing at a fast pace, its offensive efficiency has lagged as it ranks 26th in the league in that category over that same five-game stretch. The Cavs have been even worse in that regard, ranking 28th over that time frame. Both previous meetings between these two teams this season have easily stayed under the number we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-19 | Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 219.5 | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. While the Bucks are known for their efficient, up-tempo offense, which has certainly busted out with some consistency recently, I believe the oddsmakers have this one priced right with the Pacers checking in as a small home underdog and anticipate a competitive affair all the way. I've been more impressed by both teams' defensive efficiency lately. In fact, over the last 10 games the Bucks rank first in the league in defensive rating while the Pacers check in ranked fourth. As I mentioned, the Bucks have been pushing the pace, ranked third in the league in pace over that same 10-game stretch but the Pacers are at home here, and should be able to impose their will to some extent and it's worth noting that they rank 25th in the league in pace over that same time frame. Indiana also ranks a less than impressive 21st in the league in offensive rating over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-19 | Lakers v. Hawks OVER 236 | 113-117 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. This may look like a high total at first glance, but I actually believe it could be even higher. The Lakers last two games have produced 257 and 263 total points. Meanwhile, the Hawks have given up 129 and 124 points over their last two games and have seen two of their last four contests total at least 249 total points. I just don't believe either of these teams will enter this game thinking they can do anything to slow the opposition. The Hawks are allowing opponents to shoot better than 48% from the field here at home this season. The Lakers have given up an average of over 128 points per game on 51% shooting over their last five contests. This shapes up as a track meet. Take the over (10*). |
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02-11-19 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 226.5 | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Nets have really picked up the pace lately, playing among the quickest tempos in the NBA in recent weeks. The Raptors on the other hand are coming off a relatively low-scoring affair against the Knicks at MSG on Saturday night - Marc Gasol's first game with his new team (he came off the bench playing only 18 minutes). I don't believe the Raps will shy away from pushing the pace here and they should get plenty of open looks against a sagging Nets defense. Until Gasol gets fully acclimated I do think the Raps will be somewhat vulnerable defensively. The last meeting between these two teams produced 227 total points back on January 11th. My simple angle here is that pace and offensive efficiency alone should get this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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02-10-19 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 222 | 118-120 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' as the Warriors return home to host the Heat on Sunday night. Miami certainly isn't one of the league's elite offense teams, averaging right around 105 points per game this season. This isn't an ideal spot for the Heat as they play their third straight road game and face what will be a highly-motivated Warriors squad coming off a poor showing in Phoenix, albeit in a winning effort on Friday night. Keep in mind, none of the last four meetings in this series have eclipsed the total we're dealing with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-19 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 228.5 | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The last two meetings between these two teams in Atlanta have gotten well into the 240's and I'm anticipating another 'defense-optional' affair on Saturday night. The Hornets are allowing just shy of 115 points per game on the road this season, yielding just under 48% shooting to the opposition. Meanwhile, the Hawks have been torched for around 118 points per contest at home, allowing opponents to shoot better than 48% from the field. Both teams are coming off poor showings, but both were also in tough situations with the Hornets playing the second of back-to-back nights and the Hawks returning home following a seven-game road trip. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-19 | Magic v. Thunder UNDER 223 | 122-132 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Okahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score a whopping 243 total points in a Thunder victory in Orlando. Perhaps the Magic were in an up-tempo mood after facing the likes of the Hawks, Wizards and Rockets in three of their four previous games heading into that one. Since then, we've seen back-to-back 'under' results from Orlando, moving their o/u mark to 23-30 on the season. The Thunder are back home following a three-game road trip out east that saw all three contests go 'over' the total (including that aforementioned win over the Magic). Orlando shoots below 44% as a team on the road this season and doesn't shoot particularly well from beyond the arc. The Thunder have held the opposition to 33.8% shooting from three-point range at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-03-19 | Clippers v. Raptors OVER 229.5 | 103-121 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. The Raptors have had plenty of time to stew over Thursday's double-digit home loss to the Bucks and I expect to see them come out guns' blazing on Sunday afternoon as they aim to jump all over a Clippers squad playing its second the second game of back-to-backs out east. With that being said, the Clips have generally been fast starters this season, averaging nearly 30 points in the first quarter (and the second as well). They rallied back from a big halftime deficit to defeat the Pistons in Auburn Hills yesterday afternoon and I don't expect them to back down as a double-digit underdog in Toronto on Sunday. The last time these two teams met back in December the Clippers didn't bring their 'A' game and ultimately fell by 24 points. Expect a more competitive affair this time around and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring game. Take the over (10*). |
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02-01-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 227 | 122-136 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Denver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Rockets don't play a great deal of defense at the best of times and now they head out on the road to play at altitude on Friday night in Denver and I'm anticipating a track meet. There hasn't been much of a difference between the way the Rockets have played defensively on the road or at home this season, allowing opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field. Likewise, the Nuggets shoot 47% as a team here at home, where they average over 111 points per game. These two teams just met back on January 7th and the result was a 125-113 Rockets victory in Houston. I do expect the Nuggets to return the favor here but rather than lay the points, I'll play the 'over' as the Rockets should play with plenty of fire following an ugly home loss to the undermanned Pelicans on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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01-03-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | 135-134 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. None of the last six meetings in this series have even come close to sniffing the posted total we're working with on Thursday night, but I'm not one bit surprised we're dealing with such a high number. It's the nature of today's NBA, with totals regularly reaching into the 220's and 230's. The Rockets continue to roll along without Chris Paul among others, but look at who they've faced lately. Houston's current five-game winning streak has come at the expense of the Spurs, Thunder, Celtics, Pelicans and Grizzlies, with four of those games coming at home. Elite defensive squads are few and far between in that mix. Meanwhile, the Warriors exploded for 132 points last time out, but that was against the lowly Suns. The 'under' has actually cashed in three of their last four contests. Take the under (10*). |
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12-25-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 44 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 5:35 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup was a bit of a dud on the opening night of the regular season as Boston cruised to a 105-87 victory, not coming anywhere close to eclipsing the posted total. Now we're dealing with a considerably higher total but is it warranted? I believe it is. Both teams bring excellent form to the table, at least from an offensive standpoint. The 76ers took full advantage of a Raptors squad that was missing Kawhi Leonard on Saturday night, scoring 126 points in an eventual blowout victory. Meanwhile, the Celtics 'got right' with a 119-103 win over the Hornets on Sunday. The 76ers didn't have Jimmy Butler the last time these two teams met. Look for a track meet on Christmas Day in Beantown. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-18 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 218 | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Minnesota on Wednesday night. The Spurs needed everything they had to get past the lowly Bulls by a single point in Chicago on Monday night. It did mark their seventh straight game scoring over 100 points and I don't think they'll have much trouble eclipsing that number again on Wednesday. Note that San Antonio has scored 117 and 112 points in two meetings with the T'Wolves since the start of 2018. Minnesota has seen the 'under' cash in seven straight games. While they have allowed just 96 and 95 points over their last two games, those contests came against the Cavs and Bulls - two of the league's weakest teams. They'll face a much tougher challenge here, although based on the pointspread being in their favor, I'm certainly anticipating a competitive game from start to finish, and that should lend itself to a high-scoring affair in this case. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled 220 points. I'll call for more of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 208.5 | 87-105 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair between the 76ers and Celtics as the NBA regular season tips off on Tuesday night at TD Garden. We saw a relatively high-scoring playoff series between these two teams last spring and there's little reason to expect any sort of shift here. The 76ers appeared to be in midseason form offensively during the preseason while the Celtics were able to get Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving loose as they work their way back from long-term injuries. The C's are thought of as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference and I'm confident we'll see them come out and push the envelope against one of their biggest threats in the 76ers. I don't believe that slowing things down and drawing out possessions is in either team's DNA. I feel this total could have been set higher, and would likely still consider the 'over'. Look for higher numbers in games involving these two teams in the coming weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Golden State and Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors have had four previous series-clinching opportunities in these playoffs, going 3-1 straight-up in those games. For our purposes with this play, it’s worth noting that those games have averaged just 198.3 total points, with only one of those games surpassing the total we’re working with on Friday night. The Cavs played about as well as we could have expected in Game 3 of this series but could still only muster 102 points in a losing effort. They know they’re not coming back to win this series at this point, and I certainly don’t think they’re interested in getting involved in a track meet with the Warriors on Friday night. Meanwhile, after three games, and with Andre Iguodala back in the rotation, the Warriors should have a pretty good handle on how to contain the Cavs less-than-complex offense at this point. It’s really up to Golden State how it wants this game to play out and based on its track record in these playoffs, I look for it to lock down the Cleveland offense as it stares down an opportunity to wrap up this series rather than drag it out another few days. Steph Curry isn’t going to go 0-for-9 from three-point range again but I’m also not sure we’ll see Kevin Durant go off the way he did in Game 3. Cleveland made every effort to push the pace early in Game 3 and got off to a fantastic start in the first two minutes, but it wasn’t able to keep up that frantic tempo and certainly wasn’t effective getting back on defense while doing so. As I mentioned, the Cavs know they aren’t going to beat the Warriors at their own game. The last time the Warriors wrapped up an NBA title here on this floor in Cleveland back in 2016, they did so with a 105-97 victory in Game 6. I expect to see a similar story unfold on Friday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 217 | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series have gone 'over' the total (we won with the over in Game 1 but missed with the under in Game 2) but I expect a different story to play out on Wednesday night at the Q. First of all, we have a catalyst for change in place here as the series shifts to Cleveland. It's also worth noting that the two teams are relatively well rested having had two off days following each of the first two games of the series. While the Warriors carry a reputation as being an offensive juggernaut and an 'over' machine for betting purposes, the fact is they've actually trended toward the 'under' with a 46-54-1 o/u mark this season and have only posted three or more consecutive 'over' results on two different occasions - with both of those streaks coming during the regular season. Last year's NBA Finals were high-scoring throughout, although the first game of that series did stay 'under' the total. In the last three Finals series' between these two teams we have yet to see the first three games all go 'over' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215 | 103-122 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday night. Both teams got off to blazing starts in the opener, and the result was a high-scoring opening quarter. But from there things did settle down and we saw some stretches of sloppy basketball - the type of basketball that has been fairly common in both teams' current playoff runs. I'm not sure we're going to see another peak Lebron effort in Game 2. But on the flip side, I also haven't loved what I've seen from the Warriors, who have looked far more disjointed than in previous playoff campaigns. Keep in mind, these two teams were involved in a game that reached only 191 total points in the regular season so the potential is there for a relatively low-scoring, physical affair. I expect to see that physicality ramp up in the second game of the series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. In last year's Finals opener we saw the lowest scoring game of the series, reaching just 204 total points. In fact, that was the only 'under' result in the series as the next four games flew 'over' the number. I expect a different story to unfold here in the 2018 Finals. The Warriors won't be afforded the luxury of having the Cavs missing over and over again from three-point range the way the Rockets did last round. While the Cavs are likely going to be missing Kevin Love once again, they won't be missing arguably their most important player the way the Rockets were at the end of the Western Finals either. With all of that said, I don't think we'll see the Cavs offer much resistance defensively. The Celtics seemed to bail the Cavs out last round, particularly in Game 7 of that series as they displayed some poor shot selection and couldn't really get into any sort of offensive groove. Here, I'm confident the Warriors will be on the attack for 48 minutes and find plenty of success against a vulnerable Cavs defense. The last time these two teams met in January we saw a closing total of 233.5. We're obviously working with a much different number here and that has everything to do with the Warriors 1-9 o/u record over their last 10 games. That has little bearing in the opener of this series though. Take the over (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 208.5 | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We saw a very low-scoring game between the Cavs and Celtics last night (we won with the 'under') and while I don't expect that type of slugfest here in Game 7 of the Western Finals, I am confident this contest will stay 'under' the posted total. We've seen the totals drop drastically over the course of this series, but it's been warranted in my opinion. Even in Game 6, when the two teams took turns going on monster runs, the game still stayed comfortably 'under' the number. I certainly expect some pushback from the Rockets here after they were run out of the gym on Saturday night. But I'm not convinced Houston's offense can figure things out, clearly mired in a major shooting slump, particularly from beyond the arc, in this series. Whether Chris Paul is able to play or not, I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams who are obviously extremely familiar with one another at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Game 7 between the Cavs and Celtics on Sunday night. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has gone 3-0 in three games in Boston in this series while the 'over' has cashed in two of three games in Cleveland. The Cavs actually took a step back in Game 6, putting up 109 points after scoring 116 and 111 points in Games 3 and 4 in Cleveland. Lebron James turned in one of the biggest performances of his career in Game 6 but he'll have a tough time replicating that feat in Boston, where the Celtics have done a good job defending him in this series. While the Celtics have enjoyed plenty of success in this series, particularly at home, this is still a young team hosting a squad of seasoned veterans with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line - I do think we'll see them display some nerves, at least early in this contest. This is the lowest total we've seen in this series so far, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 207 | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' on Monday as we're starting to see a real 'under' trend build for both teams. Obviously the first three games of this series have now gone 'under' and so have five of the Celtics last six games overall and four of the Cavs last five. Five of six meetings between these two games have stayed 'under' the total this season. All three games in this series have been decided by double-digit margins. Game 2 was the most competitive but even that contest couldn't get 'over' the total thanks to fourth quarter scoring lapses from both teams. This is clearly a pivotal game in this series as we'll see what kind of fight the Celtics show after getting their first taste of adversity. I'm expecting gritty performances from both teams. Take the under (10*). |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. I certainly don't see the Rockets backing down as this series shifts to Oakland for Game 3 on Sunday night. With that being said, I also look for the Warriors to force the issue here, and perform much better than they did in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday night. Note that the lone regular season meeting here at Oracle Arena resulted in a 122-121 Rockets victory on the opening night of the regular season. We're dealing with the highest total in this playoff series so far, but I believe the number can and will go even higher as the series progresses. There will be spots to play the 'under' but this isn't one of them in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 205 | 86-116 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday night as neither team could find any offensive consistency in the fourth quarter, ultimately ruining what looked like an easy, rocking chair winner after three quarters. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the series shifts to Cleveland, however. I fully expect to see the Celtics to continue to attack, albeit with some wiser shot selection than we saw in the fourth quarter in Game 2. The Cavs could have easily gotten back into that game were it not for some dreadful fourth quarter shooting and shot selection of their own on that night. Look for them to do a much better job of getting to the basket and forcing the issue rather than hoisting up desperation three-pointers the way they did late in Game 2. The Cavs will also need to stop standing around and watching Lebron James. I don't see that being as much of an issue here at home in Game 3. Regardless whether this is a tight game or a lopsided affair, I believe we'll see plenty of scoring all the way through. Take the over (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | 105-127 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Houston at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Houston on Wednesday night as the Rockets try to even things up with the Warriors in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. The Rockets can play a lot better defensively than they did in Game 1 on Monday night. Houston simply had no answers for the Warriors offense, particularly in the second half as Kevin Durant paced the charge with 37 points. Meanwhile, the Warriors did just about as good as you could expect as far as containing the Rockets goes, giving up 41 points to James Harden but holding the team to just under 46% shooting and 13 made threes. I'm really not sure how many adjustments Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni can make heading into this one. The Warriors are a better defensive team than most give them credit for, noting that they've held the opposition to 44.5% shooting this season. While Golden State is more than capable of prevailing in a track meet with Houston, I'm not sure it is all that eager to get involved in such a contest with a 1-0 series lead in its back pocket. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavs were essentially run out of the building in Game 1 of this series in Boston on Sunday afternoon (we won with the Celtics), scoring only 35 first half points en route to a 108-83 beatdown at the hands of the Celtics. While I’m not sure the Cavs make the complete turnaround and win Game 2, I am confident we’ll see them put forth a much stronger offensive showing. Lebron James certainly said all of the right things after that Game 1 blowout and I believed much of what he said in that he’s not one bit concerned by one loss. Look for a big game out of Lebron on Tuesday night as he takes advantage of what I consider an average Celtics defense. On the flip side, Boston continues to impress, getting offensive contributions from everywhere on the floor. Despite getting only 17 points combined from Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart, the C’s still managed to easily eclipse the 100-point mark on Sunday. There’s little reason to expect much of a letdown here. Brad Stevens continues to prove himself as one of the league’s best coaches and I’m confident he’ll make a few adjustments to keep the offense flowing on Tuesday night. We’re dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in the series opener, but I believe it’s the wrong move. Expect a competitive, relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Pelicans quite simply couldn't knock down their shots in Game 4 of this series and the Warriors rolled to an easy victory as a result (we won with Golden State and the 'under'). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in this elimination game on Tuesday night. There's reason for the Pelicans to be confident heading into this one as they've scored at least 115 points in five of eight meetings between these two teams this season. The Warriors came out with the right level of intensity in Game 4 on Sunday, but that was coming off a 19-point drubbing just two nights earlier. Here, I'm not sure they manhandle the Pelicans right out of the gate in quite the same way. On the flip side, there's little reason to think that New Orleans can slow an offensive juggernaut like the Warriors on the road. Golden State has scored 120, 123 and 121 points in its last three home games against the Pelicans. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 214 | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Monday. The Raptors gave the Cavs their best shot on Saturday, or at least they didn't quit, battling back in the fourth quarter before falling on another Lebron James buzzer-beater. For much of Saturday's game the Raptors couldn't get anything going offensively. DeMar DeRozan was a non-factor and while he should play better on Monday night, I'm still not sure it's enough for the Raptors to hang around and inflict a great deal of damage offensively. The Cavs were on top of their game offensively in Game 3 and pretty much have been since the opening tip of this series. But again, I'm not sure they need to turn in an explosive offensively performance in this one. It's a win and move on situation and I look for the Cavs to put forth a clean effort. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 231 | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and New Orleans at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in four of the Pelicans last five games overall but only two of those contests went 'over' the number we're working with this afternoon. I expect to see the Warriors do a much better job defending the perimeter after allowing the Pelicans to knock down 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc on Friday. On the flip side, it's essentially another must-win situation for New Orleans and I'm confident we will see them keep the Warriors offense in check for stretches in this one, even if they're not able to stay within arm's length for 48 minutes. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Toronto and Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We didn’t see a great deal of defense from either team in the first two games of this series, although Game 1 was poised to go ‘under’ the total before chances of that were ruined by overtime (we had the ‘under’ in that game). This is it for the Raptors. They desperately need a win on Saturday night as they’re not going to dig themselves out of an 0-3 hole against Lebron and co. With that being said, I do expect to see more pushback from the Raps defensively here. A lot of the shots the Cavs knocked down as they pulled away from the Raps on Thursday came with a high degree of difficulty. Don’t count on them making all of those shots again on Saturday. Cleveland will undoubtedly get a boost from playing back at home, but that should help them defensively as well. Nothing will come easy for the Raps as they try to claw their way back into the series and that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 206.5 | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Boston and Philadelphia at 5 pm et on Saturday. The first two games of this series have gone ‘over’ the total and that’s been the norm in all four second round playoff series’ so far. I expect to see a bit of a shift on Saturday, however, as this series moves to Philadelphia for Game 3. The 76ers are down 2-0 in the series but they’re not about to throw in the towel. A wise man once said a series doesn’t truly begin until the home team loses (or something to that effect). Here, I look for a determined effort from the 76ers as they do a much better job of defending the perimeter and preventing all of those easy Celtics looks that we saw in the first two games of the series. On the flip side, I think what you see is what you get from the 76ers offense. Ben Simmons is likely to play better, but I do still believe they’re in tough against a scrappy Celtics defense. Boston will continue to pester Philadelphia’s go-to guys and keep the score within reason in this matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 215 | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Despite Indiana pushing the pace for much of the series, we still saw the 'under' cash in five of the Cavs seven games in the opening round. The 'over' came through in the final two games of that series, only after the oddsmakers made considerable adjustments to the total. Here in Game 1 of this much anticipated showdown between the Cavs and Raptors I don't expect Lebron James to find the going nearly as easy as it was in Game 7 against the Pacers. Despite dealing with muscle cramps, Lebron still managed to have his way with Indiana but will face a significant challenge against the Raptors on Tuesday. On the flip side, the Raptors are likely to face more resistance than they saw against the Wizards. Save for Games 3 and 4 in Washington, when Toronto simply didn't bring its 'A' game, the Raptors were able to cruise past the Wizards, scoring at will at times. We've seen some high-scoring affairs between the Raps and Cavs this season but I expect to see a different type of contest play out in the series opener. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 215 | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 2:35 pm et on Saturday. We've seen three consecutive high-scoring affairs to open this series but I'm looking for the defenses to settle in a little bit on Saturday afternoon in Miami. The 76ers welcomed Joel Embiid back to the lineup in Game 3 and didn't miss a beat, putting up 128 points in a victory. I do believe we may see a misstep from the 76ers in this matchup on Saturday, however, as the Heat will certainly bring more intensity than we saw on Thursday. Note that the two regular season meetings here in Miami totaled only 203 and 207 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 218 | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Washington at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Washington on Friday night. The Raptors have controlled this series from the opening tipoff, taking both games in Toronto before the scene shifts to Washington. We've missed the mark with the 'under' so far in this series but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as I expect to see both teams step up their defensive game in what becomes the pivotal game of the series to date. The Wizards need to pick up the intensity at the defensive end of the floor first and foremost after offering no resistance at all in the first two games. I'm confident they'll do just that back at home, and Toronto will follow suit. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-18 | Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 215 | 119-130 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Saturday as the Raptors rode a barrage of three-pointers to a 114-106 victory. It was an admittedly sloppy performance from the Wizards defensively, one that I expect them to clean up a bit on Game 2 on Tuesday night. On the flip side, the Raptors didn't do a great job of containing the Wizards dynamic duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal - Wall in particular, as he scored 23 points and added 15 assists. Look for the Raps to do a better job of matching the Wizards speed on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-18 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 215 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this total sets up on Monday night. We saw 233 total points in the series opener on Saturday with the 76ers facing little resistance en route to a 130-point performance. For their part, the Heat looked various shades of awful, struggling to knock down shots for much of the game. Yet, they still managed to score 103 points. I certainly expect to see the Heat improve offensively on Monday night but I'm not convinced they can do anything to slow down Ben Simmons and the 76ers offense. Philadelphia won't get center Joel Embiid back for this game and that actually works well for our purposes with the 'over'. The scoring will die down a bit as this series progresses, especially if the 76ers have to adjust to bringing Embiid back in the lineup but that won't happen on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-14-18 | Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 106-114 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Toronto at 5:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Air Canada Centre on Saturday evening. The Wizards easily disposed of the Raptors in four games three years ago, the last time these two teams met up in the playoffs. Obviously both teams are in much different places now with the Raptors heavily favored to return the favor. I'm not sure that we're going to see a track meet right out of the gates. The Wizards didn't exactly finish the regular season with a full head of steam, while the Raptors playoff history, particularly early in the postseason leaves a lot to be desired. Look for the Raptors to do a fine job of locking down on the Wizards this time around. If this were the regular season this total might look a little low, but in a playoff game between two familiar foes, I expect to see some defense. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | 126-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet in Oakland on Saturday night. The Pelicans are battling for their playoff lives and fresh off a 122-point performance in Phoenix I'm confident they'll be able to get out and run again in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Warriors are coming off a loss in Indiana and should have little trouble bouncing back against a porous Pelicans defense on Saturday night. We're dealing with a high total in this matchup, but it's certainly warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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04-05-18 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 224.5 | 96-100 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Thursday night. I'm not sure where the defense is going to come from in this matchup. Keep in mind, the most recent meeting between these two teams finished up 128-125 in favor of Minnesota back in late December. The T'Wolves have been struggling a bit offensively of late but should bounce back against a porous Nuggets defense on Thursday. Denver, meanwhile, continues to roll along having put up 100 points or more in every game going back to March 19th. The Nuggets have scored over 120 points on four different occasions over that stretch. Expect a track meet in the late game on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-18 | Blazers v. Pelicans OVER 221.5 | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Blazers last game, a narrow victory over the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Sunday night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday, however, as the Blazers continue their trip in New Orleans. Portland may be a little road weary but it catches a break facing a weak defensive squad in the Pelicans here. On the flip side, New Orleans will want to use this as a measuring stick game and I certainly don't expect it to hold anything back. Both of these teams are accustomed to getting involved in track meets and I expect nothing different in this spot. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-18 | Nuggets v. 76ers OVER 223 | 104-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Philadelphia on Monday night. The last meeting between these two teams came in late December and feels like an eternity ago now. That contest totaled just 209 points, which helps keep this total in check. A lot has changed for both squads and both come in playing with confidence and ready to get out and run. Simply put, don't count on a lot of hard-nosed defensive play in this contest. The 76ers have scored at least 118 points in five of six games during their current winning streak. Look for them to set the pace again in this one, and for the Nuggets to follow suit. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-18 | Blazers v. Thunder OVER 216 | Top | 108-105 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Oklahoma City at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Oklahoma City on Sunday night. Neither team is coming off a tremendous offensive effort, but I expect both to respond positively in this key late season Western Conference showdown. Both teams have certainly been putting up big points in recent weeks, and throughout the season. Yet, the last time they met back on March 3rd we saw only 208 total points in an eight-point Blazers victory. That's a big reason why this total hasn't gotten to an unreasonable level. Prior to being held to just 100 points last time out, the Blazers had scored at least 111 points in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Thunder have scored just 100 and 105 points in their last two contests, but had put up 119, 121 and 132 points in their previous three. Take the over (10*). |
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03-21-18 | Wizards v. Spurs OVER 203.5 | 90-98 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and San Antonio at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in San Antonio on Wednesday night. The Wizards have scored north of 100 points in six straight games and I believe they'll be able to bait the Spurs into a high-scoring affair on Wednesday as well. San Antonio is coming off a sloppy game against the undermanned Warriors on Monday night, scoring just 89 points in an eventual victory. The Spurs did hold the Warriors to only 75 points but Golden State was missing Curry, Durant and Thompson among others. Here, the Spurs won't be so fortunate. I'm expecting both offenses to show up in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-18 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 206 | 75-89 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and San Antonio at 9:35 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in San Antonio on Monday night. The Warriors are of course without a number of key cogs, including Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. They still managed to put up 120+ points last time out, however, cruising past the Suns in Phoenix on Saturday. While I'm not sure they'll be able to keep up with the Spurs for four quarters on Monday night, I'm also not sure that San Antonio warrants being in such a steep pointspread range. With that being said, I am confident we'll see a high-scoring affair between these two Western Conference rivals. The Spurs have reeled off three straight wins, scoring 117 points against a quality T'Wolves squad last time out. They're not likely to ease up on the Warriors as I expect to see them push the pace at every opportunity. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-18 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 207 | 102-129 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. I don't think anything will come easy for the Wizards on Saturday night in Miami. The Heat have played their best basketball of the season since re-acquiring Dwyane Wade and are fresh off a big home win over the 76ers on Thursday night (we won with Miami in that contest). I certainly don't expect the Heat to back down from Saturday's challenge against an uneven Wizards squad. On the flip side, I'm not sure that the Heat are quite as efficient offensively as they looked in the second half against the 76ers. Look for them to suffer some offensive regression in this matchup. In what should be a tightly-contested affair, I'll back the 'under' on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-18 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 220 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Rockets are coming off a relatively low-scoring game, by their own standards, in Milwaukee on Wednesday night but I expect a return to form on Friday as they square off against the East-leading Raptors in Toronto. The Raptors aren't going to back down from the challenge at hand, as they come in playing some of their best basketball of the season. The last time they faced a real step-up game on their home floor they fell against the Warriors so you can be sure they'll be up for this one. I don't think we'll see the Raps shy away from a potential track meet here either. Unlike previous years, Toronto has the scoring depth to keep up with a team like the Rockets. This has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games of the season and we'll grab a piece of the 'over' at what I would consider a reasonable number. Take the over (10*). |
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03-06-18 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 222.5 | 122-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. As long as the oddsmakers continue to dangle relatively low totals in games involving the Rockets we'll continue to play the 'over'. We won with that play in Saturday's wild back-and-forth affair between Houston and Boston and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as the Rockets hit the road to challenge the Thunder on Tuesday. The Rockets play at such a ridiculous pace and hoist up so many three-point attempts, it takes an awfully sloppy performance to keep a game 'under' the total, regardless how high the number is. I certainly don't expect to see the Thunder back down in this one. Look for another wild, high-scoring affair between two of the Western Conference's best teams. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-18 | Celtics v. Rockets OVER 216.5 | Top | 120-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Houston at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' in Houston on Saturday night. The Rockets are somewhat surprisingly coming off back-to-back relatively low-scoring affairs. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. The Celtics put up north of 130 points in their last game - a rout of the Hornets at home. Having won four games in a row, I don't believe they'll miss a beat here. Keep in mind, the Rockets have won a whopping 14 games in a row so they're obviously the 'hunted' at this point. They're also brimming with confidence and certainly won't back down from the Celtics. Look for this to be a highly-competitive matchup, with the final score soaring 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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03-01-18 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 223 | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll keep my analysis short and sweet for this play on Thursday night. The Cavs are coming off a predictably high-scoring game against the Nets on Tuesday - a game that was closer than most expected. Here, I look for Cleveland to set the tone with a stronger defensive effort, catching the 76ers in a tough spot, a little road weary off a gut-wrenching loss in Miami on Tuesday night. I don't anticipate seeing peak efforts offensively in this particular spot, yet we're dealing with a very high posted total. Take the under (10*). |
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02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans have been absolutely rolling offensively over the course of their six-game winning streak but I do expect them to face some resistance against the Spurs on Wednesday night. That's not to say they can't hang tough in this game, or even keep their winning streak going, but I think we're going to see a different pace of play than the breakneck one they've settled into lately. The Spurs are coming off a big blowout win in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon, snapping a four-game losing streak in the process. Note that they had been struggling mightily defensively, but that performance against the Cavs, allowing only 94 points, should give them a bit of a shot in the arm. Look for a tightly-contested affair all the way on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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02-25-18 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 228 | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Denver at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Rockets last game, a win over the T'Wolves on Friday night at home. That game wasn't ultimately as competitive as I thought it would be, and as a result wasn't able to get up and over the lofty total. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday night in Denver, however. The Rockets are certainly coming off a strong offensive showing and I don't expect them to miss a beat here but they'll without question face a challenge from a strong Nuggets offense that won't back down on its home floor. We're dealing with an even higher total than we saw on Friday, but it's warranted in this case. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-18 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 225.5 | 102-120 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Friday. No need to get too carried away with my analysis of this play. The fact is, both of these teams want to push the pace at every opportunity and it's unlikely we see much in the way of defense on Friday night. The last time they met on February 13th, the Rockets rolled to an 18-point victory. I expect a more competitive affair on Friday night and that lends itself to an even higher-scoring contest as far as I'm concerned. Yes, we're dealing with a high posted total but it's warranted in this case. Take the over (10*). |
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02-22-18 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 110-103 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Thursday night. Both of these teams went into the All-Star break firing on all cylinders offensively. It remains to be seen whether the break costs them their positive momentum but I'm willing to bet both pick up right where they left off and we see a track meet on Thursday night. The Wizards have actually been pushing the pace even more since losing John Wall to injury with Bradley Beal really stepping up in his absence. On the flip side, the Cavs have looked like a completely different team since their flurry of trade deadline deals. Count on an entertaining affair on Thursday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-18 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 225.5 | 117-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Portland at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I really feel that this play comes down to whether you think the Blazers show up or not. IÂ believe they will coming off an ugly home loss to the Jazz on Sunday. Portland certainly won't be short on motivation having dropped the last seven meetings in this series. And the pointspread really says it all as the Warriors are only laying a few buckets in this matchup. Golden State ran up the score against the lowly Suns on Monday night, scoring 129 points in a 46-point rout. I don't think they'll face a great deal of resistance against the Blazers defense on this night. We're dealing with a high posted total, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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02-13-18 | Heat v. Raptors OVER 207 | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in Toronto on Tuesday night. The Heat are coming off a low-scoring affair at home against the Bucks on Friday, with Goran Dragic hitting just 1-of-11 shots in that contest. Expect a bounce-back offensively here, but I'm not sure Miami will have any answers for a rolling Raptors offense. Toronto absolutely blew the doors off of Charlotte on Sunday afternoon and should have little trouble keeping it rolling back at home, where it averages nearly 113 points per game this season. The Heat are averaging over 100 points per contest on the road themselves and they won't back down in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-18 | Rockets v. Nets OVER 218 | 123-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockets are in a clear letdown spot after cruising to a 32-point rout of the Cavaliers on Saturday night. While they may let down their guard defensively and allow the Nets to hang around in this contest, I don't believe we'll see Houston let up one bit offensively, where they've obviously been extremely consistent this season. The Nets have lost back-to-back games after opening their current homestand with an impressive 116-108 win over the 76ers. This is precisely the type of spot where Brooklyn tends to show up and surprise the opposition. I'm not all that interested in grabbing the points but will call for a high-scoring track meet at Barclay's Center. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-18 | Thunder v. Pistons UNDER 207.5 | 121-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Detroit at 5:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at the Palace of Auburn Hills on Saturday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in the Thunder's most recent contest - a 121-112 win over the Wizards on Thursday night. I won't hesitate to switch gears here, however. Oklahoma City is scoring at will right now. But it will run into a highly-motivated and well-rested Pistons squad on Saturday. Detroit has lost six straight games and unlike the Thunder, the Pistons aren't scoring with a great deal of consistency. Note that Detroit is allowing just a shade over 100 points per game at home this season so it is capable of keeping opposing offenses in check. In fact, these two teams have combined to post a 39-54-1 o/u record this season. The 'under' has cashed in seven straight meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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01-26-18 | Lakers v. Bulls OVER 220 | 108-103 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' in Chicago on Friday night. The Bulls have quietly been involved in a number of high-scoring games lately, with their last five averaging just shy of 230 total points. While we're dealing with a relatively high total here, I believe it could be even higher. Note that the Lakers are playing with some confidence, having won three games in a row, scoring 127 and 108 points in their last two contests. The problem is, L.A. has also allowed at least 107 points in four of its last five games. The Bulls will be looking to get loose following a three-game road trip that saw them drop a couple of games, but still manage to go 2-1 ATS. Chicago is 6-1 ATS over its last seven contests. Expect a competitive, high-scoring affair on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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01-25-18 | Wizards v. Thunder OVER 213 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Oklahoma City at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a high total in this matchup but it's warranted in my opinion. The Wizards were a complete no-show in Dallas last time out, scoring 75 points in a blowout loss. I do expect them to bounce back in a big way offensively against a Thunder squad that has offered little defensive resistance of late. Oklahoma City has scored 114, 148 and 109 points in its last three games, all victories, but has also allowed 124 and 108 points over its last two contests. Note that the Wizards have scored over 100 points in five of the last six meetings in this series. In fact, the 'over' is 5-1 in the last six matchups between these two teams as well. Expect a track meet on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-18 | Raptors v. Hawks OVER 215.5 | 108-93 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a couple of fairly low-scoring games between these two teams this season and as a result we're dealing with a lower total than we saw in their last meeting back in late December. The Raptors aren't a good defensive road team by any means. They've allowed at least 110 points in each of their last six road contests. On the flip side, we know the Raptors can score. They're averaging just shy of 110 points per game away from home this season. Atlanta is playing with some confidence right now, having posted victories in three of its last four games overall. The 'under' has cashed in the Hawks last four contests, but again, that only serves to give us a more reasonably priced total in this spot. Take the over (10*). |
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01-19-18 | Spurs v. Raptors OVER 208 | 83-86 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This has been a high-scoring series at times in recent years and I'm anticipating a similar result on Friday night in Toronto. The Spurs are of course without Kawhi Leonard so they're going to need to learn how to run their offense efficiently once again. They've sputtered offensively of late, but I'm confident they can get loose against a vulnerable Raptors defense on Friday night. Toronto scored only 96 points in perhaps a less than impressive win over the Pistons on Wednesday. Prior to that they had scored 133, 125 and 111 points in their last three games, however. Note that they're averaging just shy of 115 points per contest at home this season. The Spurs are a good defensive team but I'm not sure they'll be able to resist getting involved a high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-12-18 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 226.5 | 112-95 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Friday. I fully expect a track meet between the Rockets and Suns in Phoenix on Friday night. Of course, the Rockets have been scoring at will all season long. There's little reason to expect the Suns will offer much resistance on Friday. Note that Houston has scored at least 123 points in winning each of the last five meetings in this series. The Suns aren't likely to back down, however, as they boast an explosive fast-paced offense of their own. Phoenix is coming off a big home win over the Thunder, scoring 114 points in that contest. The Rockets are allowing right around 110 points per game over their last five contests so the door is open for the Suns to turn in another strong offensive showing. Take the over (10*). |
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01-10-18 | Thunder v. Wolves UNDER 211.5 | Top | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the T'Wolves last game - a rout of the Cavaliers on Monday night. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, as they welcome the Thunder to town. Lost in that blowout win by Minnesota was its exceptional defensive effort against not just Lebron James (he was held to 10 points) but the entire Cavs offense. Yes, Cleveland did end up reaching 99 points but that was thanks only to a big fourth quarter after the T'Wolves had already solidified a positive result. Here, I'm anticipating a more tightly-contested affair, and that should lend itself to tougher defense throughout. The Thunder are known for their offense, but here they're going to need to tighten things up defensively in order to bring an end to a two-game slide. After giving up 114 and 117 points in back-to-back flat performances against Phoenix and Portland I expect them to do just that on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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01-10-18 | Mavs v. Hornets UNDER 209.5 | 115-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Neither of these teams should be considered defensive stalwarts by any means, but that doesn't mean that a track meet is a sure thing on Wednesday night in Charlotte. The Hornets are playing their first game back home following a long road trip, and I expect them to suffer some ill effects as a result. As for the Mavs, they're in a back-to-back spot following a 114-point outburst in a win over the Magic at home last night. This is one of those tough to get up for one game trips, against a non-conference opponent no less. It's not that I'm anticipating a defensive slugfest here, I simply feel that both offenses will have a tough time sustaining high productivity levels for four quarters. We're dealing with a lofty total here as well. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-18 | Cavs v. Wolves OVER 220 | 99-127 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I'm not anticipating much defense in this showdown between the Cavs and T'Wolves on Monday night. The Cavs will be a popular play in this one, but there's no question Minnesota is capable of giving them a run. The T'Wolves score here at home, averaging north of 109 points per game. Likewise, the Cavs are putting up just shy of 110 ppg on the road. Also note that the most recent meeting between these two teams, last February, totaled 224 points. The Cavs are easing Isaiah Thomas into the fold, and he scored 19 points in only 22 minutes last time out. Expect a track meet here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-13-17 | Blazers v. Heat OVER 202 | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Miami at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Miami's most recent game in Memphis on Monday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Heat scored 107 points in that eventual rout of the Grizzlies, despite the fact that the game was played at a very slow pace. That marked the third straight game in which Miami scored at least 101 points. Portland is coming off five straight losses but has scored 117 and 104 points over its last two contests. Desperate for a win here, I believe we'll see the Blazers push the pace at every opportunity. Note that the last meeting between these two teams, right here in Miami last March, totaled 219 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-17 | Heat v. Grizzlies OVER 194 | 107-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Memphis on Monday night. The Heat allowed just 89 points in a double-digit win over Brooklyn last time out, but don't count on similar defensive commitment and success from Miami in this spot. Generally speaking, the Heat defense has been non-existent in recent weeks. The Grizzlies will certainly be looking to 'get right' in this spot and I see it as an excellent matchup for them to take advantage of. Memphis has lost three games in a row but on a positive note, has scored over 100 points in back-to-back games, albeit needing overtime to do so in its last contest against Oklahoma City. Take the over (10*). |
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11-29-17 | Pacers v. Rockets OVER 222 | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Houston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I'm confident we're going to see a track meet between the Pacers and Rockets in Houston on Wednesday. Indiana is coming off a 121-109 home win over the Magic on Monday night. That marked the third straight game in which Indiana allowed at least 104 points. Things obviously won't get any easier here as they hit the road to face the high-octane Rockets. Houston has scored at least 117 points in four of its last five games - all victories. We've seen the Rockets lag a little bit defensively over their last couple, however, giving up 102 and 103 points against the Knicks and Nets. They'll face a tougher challenge here as the Pacers are averaging over 110 points per game on the road this season. We're dealing with a high posted total here, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-17 | Nuggets v. Rockets OVER 228.5 | 95-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Not sure how this one stays 'under' as both the Nuggets and Rockets will be happy to get involved in a track meet on Wednesday night. The Nuggets are fresh off a rout of the Kings on Monday night, despite being undermanned. Paul Millsap remains sidelined but I'm still confident Denver can keep churning along offensively, just as it did last time out. Houston has scored over 100 points in 10 straight games but is coming off a stellar defensive performance as well against Memphis last weekend. Here, they shouldn't need to play elite defense as they should have little trouble scoring at will against the Nuggets. We're dealing with a very high total, but that's the norm in games involving these two teams. Take the over (10*). |
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10-24-17 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 208.5 | Top | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Not a hard decision here. The Bulls got stuck in a slugfest against the Spurs last time out after allowing 117 points, while scoring 100 points themselves, in their season opener in Toronto. Expect a return to 'normal' here as Chicago won't be able to resist a track meet in Cleveland. The Cavs got lit up for 114 points at home against the Magic on Saturday so they'll undoubtedly be fired up for this bounce-back game. Keep in mind, in Cleveland's first two games this season it put up 102 and 116 points. It should have no trouble breaking through against a porous Bulls defense on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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06-12-17 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 231 | 120-129 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll keep things simple here and back the 'under' in what could be the championship clincher for the Warriors. Golden State was flat out embarrassed in Game 4 of this series on Friday night. Expect a much sharper effort from the Warriors back home, where they'll look to make amends for a dreadful defensive performance. On the flip side, the Cavs aren't going to go away quietly. That was certainly evident on Friday night. If Cleveland is going to get this series back home for a sixth game, it will need to bring its 'A' game defensively, and can ill afford to get involved in another track meet. Even if this one does turn out to be a track meet there's no assurance it gets 'over' this monster total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 9 pm et on Friday. The total continues to rise as this series progresses, and potentially wraps up on Friday night. I believe the oddsmakers have set the number too high on Friday night. This could very well be the Cavaliers last stand, and I don't expect them to go down without a fight. In order to hang around for four quarters, they're going to need to turn up their defensive game, however. After completely collapsing defensively in the closing minutes of Game 3, I look for them to come out with plenty of fire on Friday night. On the flip side, the Warriors have been able to manhandle the Cavs offense at times during this series. With a championship within their grasp I look for their best defensive effort of the series on Friday. The 'over' has cashed in the last two games, but I see this one playing out a lot more like the series opener. Take the under (10*). |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. Perhaps the long layoff between games will lead to a little rust and this one will cruise 'under' the total, but I don't see it playing out that way on the floor. Don't think for a second that either of these star-studded teams will back down one bit, or hold anything back in the Finals opener on Thursday night. I'm anticipating a hard-fought game, but also plenty of offense. Of course, the oddsmakers and the betting marketplace in general feels that way as well as totals in this range in the Finals are extremely rare. That doesn't mean it's not warranted, however. Note that the Warriors average just under 119 points per game on their home floor this season. For their part, the Cavs have put up north of 109 points per contest on the road. Both regular season meetings stayed 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 218 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Boston and Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the ‘over’ in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, thanks in large part to a few scoring outbursts in the first half. Things settled down as the game progressed and after the Celtics pulled off a shocking upset, I expect to see the Cavs come out fired up on Tuesday night. That lends itself to a lower-scoring affair as far as I’m concerned as I believe we’ll see Cleveland really step up its defensive game. On the flip side, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens was less than pleased with his team’s defensive efforts in the first two games of this series and they answered the bell in the second half on Sunday. Expect some carry-over, although likely with a different end result on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 213 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Sunday night. The Celtics were flat out embarrassed on Friday night in Boston and now with Isaiah Thomas sidelined, few are giving them any shot at keeping things competitive in Game 3 on Sunday. I do think we'll see the C's come out with plenty of energy, however, and I'm confident they'll do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. On the flip side, Boston has yet to show that it is capable of providing any sort of resistance defensively. The Cavs will once again run wild and hang another crooked number on the scoreboard. Simply put, I believe this total has been set too low. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 219.5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I simply believe this total has been set far too high. Cleveland played two regular season games here in Boston, and those contests totaled 202 and 205 points. The Cavs have by no means been a defensive powerhouse this season, but after facing the Wizards for seven games, - one of the league's worst defensive teams - the Celtics will certainly be stepping up in class here. Of course, one of the big reasons we're dealing with such a high total here is the fact that Boston's aforementioned series with Washington went 'over' the total in five of seven games. Meanwhile, the 'over' went 3-1 in the Cavs series sweep of the Raptors last round. Cleveland has yet to face any resistance in these playoffs but will face a tougher test than some are expecting here against a scrappy Celtics squad. Boston may not win this game, but I do expect it to give Cleveland a run in a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are anticipating. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 208.5 | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Golden State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Sunday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go back to the well again on Tuesday. The Spurs will likely be without Kawhi Leonard for this one, which you would assume would strike a real blow to their defensive game. However, I feel Leonard's potential absence hurts them just as much offensively, particularly in this matchup. The Warriors are certainly a better defensive squad than they showed in the first half of Game 1 on Sunday. They righted the ship as the game progressed and I expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The 'over' has cashed in the Warriors last two games. The last time that happened in these playoffs their next contest totaled only 200 points and cruised 'under'. Expect more of the same. Take the under (10*). |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 212 | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Golden State at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs didn't seem to miss Tony Parker after he went down to a season-ending injury early in their second round series against the Rockets. I do think they'll miss him as they open the West Finals against the Warriors on Sunday, however. Of course, that's particularly true at the offensive end of the floor. I do believe we'll see the Spurs hold their own defensively, even in the face of a world class Warriors offense. Getting Kawhi Leonard back after a one game absence obviously helps in that department. On the flip side, I'm confident the Warriors can and will do a better job of containing the Spurs offense than the defenseless Rockets did last round. The 'over' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings between these two teams but I look for a different story to unfold here in the postseason. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Washington at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Wednesday night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Friday. The Wizards simply didn't show up defensively in Beantown on Wednesday. With their backs against the wall I do expect them to make amends for that awful performance here. After all, it is a win or go (stay) home scenario. Meanwhile, we've yet to really see the Celtics ratchet up the defensive pressure in this series like they did in the opening round against Chicago. But with a ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals in their grasp, I do look for them to tighten things up on Friday. Game 5 was played extremely loose at both ends of the floor. In this, the first elimination game of this series, I'm looking for a different story to unfold. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 215 | 101-123 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Beantown on Wednesday night. The winner in each game of this series has put up at least 111 points but that's a trend I see ending on Wednesday night. I'm just not sure the two offenses can keep it up. These two teams are very familiar with one another and at some point, I believe we're going to see things tighten up considerably. We didn't see it in Washington, even though one of the two games did stay 'under' the total. I look for some major push back from the Celtics after back-to-back losses in which they simply didn't show up defensively. Meanwhile, the Wizards can't play much worse defensively than they did in the first two games in Boston. Keep in mind, two of four regular season matchups in this series did stay 'under' the total we're dealing with on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards OVER 218.5 | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Boston and Washington at 8 pm et on Thursday. There will come a time to jump ship from playing the ‘over’ in this series, but I’m not sure we’ve reached that point yet. Game 2 was another thriller with Boston ultimately winning by 10 points in overtime, the score once again eclipsing the total with relative ease in regulation time. I’m not sure we’ll see things slow down at all as the scene shifts to Washington for Game 3 on Thursday night. The Wizards have come out on fire in the first two games of this series and will certainly have motivation on their side on Thursday as they aim to avoid an 0-3 hole. But don’t count on the Celtics backing down from the challenge. Note that Boston has now won six games in a row since falling behind 2-0 at home against the Bulls in round one. Both teams will come out and look to push the pace and force their opponents’ hand once again. Count on another barnburner. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-17 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 213.5 | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The oddsmakers have made an adjustment to this total heading into Game 2 but I'm not sure it will be enough. We won with the 'over' in the series opener on Monday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Raptors can certainly play better offensively. Yes, the Cavs were able to manhandle the Raps at times in Game 1 but they're by no means the elite shutdown defensive squad they once were. The Raps knew winning in Cleveland was going to be a tall task in this series so there's no reason to get overly discouraged after falling by a 116-105 score in the opener. On the flip side, I don't believe Toronto will have any defensive answers for Cleveland - no different than we saw in Game 1. The Cavs got all the looks they wanted and will continue to push the pace on Wednesday night. Save for that meaningless game on the final night of the regular season, this has been a very high-scoring series of late. Expect more of the same in Game 2. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 218 | 119-129 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the ‘over’ in the opener of this series on Sunday afternoon and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Tuesday night. The Wizards came out loose and scored 64 points in the first half of Sunday’s series opener but were ultimately undone by a 16-point third quarter. I did like the way the Wiz responded following that quarter. Rather than folding the tent they came out and put 31 points on the board in the final frame, still falling well short in a 123-111 setback. I’m not convinced the Celtics will be able to slow down the Wizards for prolonged stretches in this series but it may not matter as Boston is rolling offensively. Despite being afforded the opportunity to take its foot off the gas in several games against the Bulls last round, Boston still routinely put up over 100 points. It’s in the Celtics nature to push the tempo and after that formula worked in Game 1, I don’t expect to see much change on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 208.5 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I believe this total will prove too low on Monday night. The Raptors have obviously been in this position before after facing the Cavs in last year's East Finals. I expect to see them play loose in Monday's series opener, keeping in mind, the Cavs haven't been the same dominant defensive team we've seen in years' past. The Cavs are giving up just shy of 105 points per game at home this season. On the flip side, they're averaging around 113 points per game themselves, so track meets have been the norm on this floor. Meanwhile, the Raptors score over 101 while also giving up that same number on the road. The most recent meeting between these two teams reached only 181 points but that came on the final night of the regular season when most regular starters sat out. Their previous meeting totaled 228 points back in December. Take the over (10*). |
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04-30-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 215 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics offense is rolling along right now, and I don't expect them to face a great deal of resistance against the Wizards, who have allowed over 109 points per game on the road this season. For their part, the C's have averaged 109 points per game at home this season. Boston scored 104 points or more in each game while reeling off four straight wins to close out the Bulls last round. The Wizards won't go away quietly in this series opener, however. They've scored north of 100 points in all four regular season meetings with the Celtics. Washington put up its highest scoring output of its first round series against Atlanta in the series clincher, scoring 115 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-17 | Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 202 | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The oddsmakers continue to shift the total downward in this series but I'm still not sure it will prove to be enough. The tide has turned in the series, with the last two matchups in Chicago reaching 191 and 199 points. The Bulls offense hasn't been able to get back in gear since losing Rajon Rondo to injury. Now that they've given the Celtics life, I believe they'll have a tough time getting back on track with the scene shifting back to Boston. Chicago may no longer be an elite defensive team, but it has been one of the best 'under' bets in the NBA this season, posting a 34-51-1 o/u record. Look for the Celtics to build off of the strong defensive efforts they displayed in Chicago and make amends for giving up 106 and 111 points in Game 1 and 2 losses, respectively. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-17 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 223 | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Houston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in Houston on Tuesday night. The last game narrowly stayed 'under' the total, thanks in large part to a 38-point third quarter. With their backs against the wall, I'm confident we'll see the Thunder push the tempo for four quarters on Tuesday night. The Rockets certainly won't shy away from a track meet here, noting that they average over 117 points per game at home this season. Houston wasn't even all that sharp in Sunday's Game 4 matchup, yet still managed to score 113 points. James Harden didn't connect on a single three-point attempt in that game. We've seen a split in terms of the o/u in this matchup this season. The oddsmakers have held the total steady over the last several games, but I believe the number will prove to be too low on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 192 | 93-118 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series before laying off on Saturday's Game 4 matchup - a contest that easily stayed below the total. We're dealing with the lowest posted total of the series on Monday night as the scene shifts back to Toronto. I believe it will prove too low. Keep in mind, the Raptors are giving up 103 points per game at home this season. They're by no means an elite defensive squad. Meanwhile, Milwaukee allows just shy of 104 points per game on the road, while averaging north of 101 points itself. We saw one regular season matchup between these two teams on this floor total 222 points. While I'm not calling for that sort of track meet here, I do believe the two teams will do their part to get the final 'over' the low total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-22-17 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 217 | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Portland at 10:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the opener of this series before laying off Game 2. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 3, however. The Warriors offense has certainly found its groove through the first two games of this series and should face little resistance in Game 3, even with the scene shifting to Portland, where the Blazers give up nearly 107 points per game. The good news for the Blazers is, they have been a better offensive squad here at home, averaging just shy of 110 points per contest. They gave the Warriors all they could handle the last time these two teams squared off on this floor, ultimately falling by a 113-111 score. The 'over' is 6-3 in the last nine meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 207.5 | 104-87 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Chicago at 7 pm et on Friday. I believe the total will prove too high in Chicago on Friday night. We've seen back-to-back 'over' results to open this series but I don't think that's a sustainable trend, noting that the Bulls have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league this season, posting a 34-49-1 o/u mark. Chicago knows that if it is going to grab a 3-0 stranglehold in this series, it can't get involved in a track meet. The Celtics haven't found their offensive groove yet in this series, and the Bulls certainly don't want to crack open the door. Keep in mind, the 'under' went 4-0 in four regular season meetings between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196.5 | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Thursday. On most nights, both of these teams struggle to break the 100-point plateau. With that being said, I believe this total will prove too high on Thursday night. While the Raptors haven't exactly hung their hat on their defense this season, they have been fairly consistent both at home and on the road - in other words, they haven't suffered much of a dropoff at all in their defensive play on the highway. The same can be said for the Bucks - they're not an elite defensive squad by any means, but they have held steady both at home and on the road, and I continue to see this as a matchup they can handle. Keep in mind, the 'under' has gone 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this series. After a relatively high-scoring Game 2 (206 points scored), I'm expecting a return to "normal" on Thursday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-17 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 223 | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Houston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. The first game in this series was lower scoring than anticipated thanks to a no-show by the Thunder. I expect some push-back from Oklahoma City in this one, and I believe the total will prove to be too low. I certainly don't expect to see the Thunder held to 37% shooting again on Wednesday. Nor do I anticipate the Rockets being held to 30% from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, the last game between these two teams prior to this series came just three weeks ago, and the result was a 137-125 Rockets victory on this floor. Take the over (10*). |
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04-16-17 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 220 | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Golden State at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I don't expect the Blazers to offer much resistance against the Warriors on Sunday afternoon in Oakland. With that being said, I do believe Portland will be able to stick around, and it does that by scoring points by the bucket load. The Blazers have allowed 110 points per game on the road this season. As a 10-point or more underdog they give up 118 points per game. Fortunately they do average 106 ppg on the highway themselves. Meanwhile, the Warriors have put up just shy of 119 points per contest at Oracle Arena. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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