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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Phoenix is coming off a low-scoring victory over the Raptors in Tampa on Friday, prevailing by a 104-100 score. The 'under' is now 4-1 in the Suns last five games overall. Meanwhile, the Hornets posted an 'over' result in Friday's win over the Heat. Still, the 'under' has gone 4-1 in their last five contests. Here, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts as far as the recent 'under' trend goes for both teams. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 when the Suns have won four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 228.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 8-1 when the Hornets come off three ATS wins in their last four games this season, with those games totaling 228.4 points on average. The first meeting between these two teams took place back on February 24th in Phoenix and totaled a whopping 245 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. There's still some uncertainty as to whether Luka Doncic will play on Saturday night after missing last night's home game against the Pacers due to tightness in his back. That was more of a maintenance-related absence than anything else as far as I'm concerned and I expect to see Luka back on the floor in this second of back-to-backs for the Mavs. New Orleans played last night as well, suffering a home loss against the Nuggets. With both teams coming off subpar offensive showings last night I expect to see both bounce back with big performances on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-2 when the Pelicans revenge a road loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling 237.1 points on average. They've also posted a 16-6 o/u record after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239.7 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled a whopping 273 points. When they met last March they combined to score 250 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been generally trending to the 'under' lately even though the Pistons are coming off consecutive 'over' results (the 'under' is 5-3 in their last eight games). I'm not anticipating a track meet as the Pistons and Wizards match up for the first time this season on Saturday. Note that Detroit averages a miserable 95.1 points per game when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last three seasons, with those games totaling just 206.2 points on average. They also average just 104.4 points per game - below their current season scoring average of 107.3 ppg - after scoring 110 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 217.6 points. Washington isn't in top form offensively, having scored 113 points or less in three straight games. I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Wizards to get up for this matchup with the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 228 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. As the total suggests, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Grizzlies and Jazz in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Grizzlies have been a different team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season scoring average in a visitors' role. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has cashed at a 9-7-1 clip when they play on the road compared to a 9-15 o/u mark at home. They enter this game off three consecutive ATS victories which sets up well for the 'over', noting that it has gone 12-3 when Memphis plays after consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 234.7 points. Of course, Utah boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Even during a recent hiccup, the Jazz still continued to rack up the points and check into this one having scored 114 points or more in 13 straight games. That's even more impressive considering eight of those 13 games were played on the road. Here at home, Utah averages 117.8 points per game. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies have allowed 119.8 ppg as an underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons. The last two meetings between these two teams have produced 238 and 239 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have gone ice cold offensively over the course of a four-game losing streak which seemingly came out of nowhere. If Miami is going to snap its skid on Thursday night, I believe it will have to lean on its defense, which has the potential to be one of the best units in the league. Note that Miami checks in having allowed just 106.8 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 217.5 points. The Heat have been a positive momentum play from a defensive standpoint, having allowed just 104.3 points per game after consecutive 'under' results, with those contests totaling an average of just 213.6 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers have given up 109.9 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. That's not an impressive number on the face of it, but when you consider they give up an average of 115.5 points per game overall this season, it's worth noting. The 'under' has gone 19-7 in that situation over the last three seasons. It seems that outside of a 50-point outburst against New Orleans last week, Damian Lillard has been a little off his game since C.J. McCollum returned to the Blazers lineup. Expect some carry-over in the face of a tough defensive challenge against what should be a desperate Heat squad tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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03-24-21 | Suns v. Magic OVER 213 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Magic's double-digit loss to the Nuggets last night. Despite Orlando's awful night offensively the game still ended up approaching the posted total. Tonight, I look for the Suns and Magic to eclipse what is a relatively-low total by today's NBA standards. Note that the Suns were also involved in a relatively low-scoring affair last night, posting a 110-100 win in Miami. Phoenix falls into an interesting situation here, as it has posted a 17-7 o/u record after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228.4 points. Meanwhile, the Magic are a solid negative momentum play defensively, supporting our cause with the 'over', as they give up 115.3 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 222.8 points. I can certainly understand the logic behind the low posted total here as the first meeting between these two teams produced just 199 points in a Suns rout back on February 14th. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met in Orlando they combined to produce a whopping 242 total points in a Magic upset victory last season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Nuggets and Magic square off in Orlando. Denver still managed to shoot 50% from the field in Sunday's home loss to the Pelicans - its third straight game shooting 50% or better. Of course, that's nothing out of the ordinary as the Nuggets have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of their last 10 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Nuggets come off a home loss this season, with those games averaging 226.6 total points. We've also seen an average total of 223.6 points scored when the Nuggets come off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. Orlando got bogged down in a matinee affair in Boston on Sunday, scoring just 96 points in a blowout loss. Keep in mind, in their most recent home game, the Magic scored 121 points in an upset win over the Nets (we won with Orlando in that contest). The Magic have been getting healthier and generally playing better basketball lately and should be able to take advantage of a Denver squad that ranks bottom-five in the league in both opponents' floor percentage and opponents effective field goal percentage over its last three games. Take the over (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be forced to miss Monday's game due to a nagging injury but that has only resulted in a slight shift in the total. After the first meeting between these teams sailed 'over' the total earlier this season, I believe the number will prove too high on Monday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-15 when the Pacers come off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.6 points on average. The Pacers average just 107.8 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, as is the case here. That scoring average is well below their season average of 113.1 points per game. Likewise, with Indiana coming off of three straight games that reached 215 or more points this season, its next game has averaged just 220.7 total points, well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. The Bucks check in allowing just 103 points per game against division opponents over the last two seasons. After allowing 113 points in a win over a road-weary Spurs team that was playing the second of back-to-back nights on Saturday, and likely without Giannis in the lineup, I look for the Bucks to clamp down defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 239.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in an absolute thriller two nights ago with Damian Lillard bringing the Blazers all the way back in a 125-124 come-from-behind victory. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Thursday, as the seemingly lofty total would suggest. I actually feel the total could be even higher than it is. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 when the total is set at 230+ points in games involving the Pelicans this season. That situation has produced an average total of 247.9 points. Interestingly, the Blazers have posted an 11-0 o/u record when playing at home off a game they won but failed to cover the spread, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 244.4 points. This series couldn't be much more higher-scoring with the last four meetings producing 249, 250, 243 and 255 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-21 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 213 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Cavs will be playing just their third game since the All-Star break with neither of the previous two going well at all - blown out by 34 and 18 points at the hands of the Pelicans and Hawks. With that in mind, I do expect to see them play some defense here tonight and they draw perhaps a more favorable matchup with the Heat unlikely to really push the pace. Note that Miami's offense is below-average - the Heat haven't shot better than 50% from the field in a game just once since February 20th. On the flip side, Miami has been an excellent defensive team on its home floor, giving up just north of 107 points per game on below 44% shooting. This isn't a likely breakout spot for the Cavs offense, noting that they average just 98.7 points per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Brooklyn at 8:05 pm et on Monday. New York turned in a peak offensive performance in Saturday's 119-97 rout of the Thunder in Oklahoma City with R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle going off for a combined 58 points on 20-of-36 shooting. Here, they'll obviously be facing a much tougher test against a Nets squad that while known for their offense, can play some defense as well. Brooklyn held Detroit to an almost unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 95 points on Saturday - the third time it has held an opponent to fewer than 100 points in its last nine games. Here, the Nets catch the Knicks in a favorable spot, with New York having averaged just 103.1 points per game after being involved in three straight games where at least 215 points were scored over the last three seasons. For whatever reason, the Knicks seem to get stronger defensively the longer they stay on the road. Off two consecutive road games this season, New York is allowing just 100.1 points per game. All Knicks road games have totaled an average of only 206.2 points, with the 'under' cashing at a 14-7 clip. The only previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled 225 points and that's likely why we're seeing a considerable bump in the total here (that first matchup saw a closing total of just 216.5 points). Take the under (10*). |
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03-04-21 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Memphis is coming off consecutive offensive explosions away from home, scoring 133 and 125 points in victories over the Rockets and Wizards, respectively. Of course, it will be taking a major step up in class here against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Bucks. Note that Milwaukee will certainly be in a foul mood after suffering a 128-97 loss at home against the Nuggets on Tuesday. That flat spot probably should have been expected given it was coming off consecutive close wins in nationally-televised games against the Pelicans and Clippers. That blowout result sets us up well with the 'under' in this matchup, noting that the Bucks have allowed just 106.6 points per game following an outright loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. Those 50 games totaled an average of just 223.6 points. To take it a step further, Milwaukee has allowed just north of 100 ppg when coming off a double-digit upset loss as a favorite over that same period, with those contests reaching just 216.5 total points on average. With the Grizzlies coming off consecutive road games, their next contest has averaged just north of 215 total points over the last three seasons. Keep in mind, Memphis actually owns a losing record at home compared to a winning mark on the road this season, scoring around three points per game below its season average in the host role. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 215.5 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's quite surprising that the books haven't sent out a higher total for this one, knowing full well bettors will be itching for action and quick to pull the trigger on the 'over' in this high-profile late night matchup on Tuesday. With all of that being said, I can't help but feel this total has been set too low, and believe both offenses are in line for strong performances in this intriguing Western Conference showdown. Note that the Suns will be playing their third road game in the last five days, a situation that has produced an average total of 234 points over the last two seasons. There have been 11 occasions where the Suns have played on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, and those contests have reached an average total of over 231 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen their games average just shy of 223 total points when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here. The 'under' has cashed in the Suns last two games and the Lakers last three and both teams rank well in most defensive categories. That's why we're seeing such a low total (by today's NBA standards) but I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 222 | Top | 118-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the most recent meeting between these two teams in Detroit less than two weeks ago reaching 235 points (we won with the Pistons in that game) we aren't seeing much of an adjustment to the total here. The Pelicans were flat in Detroit in that recent Sunday night contest yet still managed to score 112 points. Here, I'm expecting a much better offensive performance, but the Pistons should be dragged along for the ride as well. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 the last nine times the Pelicans have followed up an outright underdog win over the last two seasons with those games averaging a whopping 242.8 total points. The 'over' is also an incredible 15-3 when New Orleans plays at home off a win of any sort over the last two seasons with those games reaching an average of 241.8 total points. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last four games, however we saw a similar situation earlier this month where the 'under' had gone 3-1 in their last four games as they went to L.A. to wrap up a road trip and that game totals 264 points. Here, the Pistons will be finishing up a five-game road trip before heading home to host the Kings on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-22-21 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 226 | 127-124 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Monday. We're not surprisingly working with a high total in this one as the Wizards play at a faster pace than any team in the NBA while the Lakers are in bounce-back mode following Saturday night's loss to the Heat - their second loss in a row. I'm not sure we'll see a track meet, however, for a number of reasons. Note that the 'under' has gone 34-15 when the Lakers come off an upset home loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just north of 119 points. Keep in mind, the Lakers rank tops in the league in defensive efficiency this season. With Anthony Davis sidelined, they're going to need to lean on their defense to snap out of their mini-skid. While the Wizards won't be thought of as a defensive juggernaut anytime soon, they do rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency away from home this season. They're catching the Lakers at the right time as only five teams have been worse than Los Angeles in terms of offensive efficiency over their last three games. I'm not sure that the Wiz want to awake a sleeping giant in this one by baiting them into a high-scoring affair. Note that Washington's recent 6-4 SU/ATS run has coincided with a 3-7 o/u stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 213 | Top | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Los Angeles at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game in last Saturday night's ABC showcase game but I'm confident we'll see a much different type of game unfold this week as the Heat travel to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. We won with Miami in Thursday's win in Sacramento. This is obviously a tougher matchup, even with the Lakers missing some key cogs. Jimmy Butler admitted yesterday that his team just 'isn't very good' right now. I believe the Heat will have some trouble stringing together quality possessions in this game. Meanwhile, the Lakers are playing without Anthony Davis, obviously striking a major hit at both ends of the floor, but particularly on offense. While we can expect a better performance than we saw on Thursday, it's worth noting that game saw 117 first half points but still didn't come close to toppling the total. I'm anticipating some old school basketball on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-21 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 125-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Pacers are coming off four consecutive 'under' results and I look for more of the same on Saturday as they head to Atlanta to face the reeling Hawks. Note that the 'under' has cashed at a 25-12 clip when Indiana comes off three or more straight 'unders' over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just over 210 points - a very low total by today's NBA standards. Also note that the 'under' is 55-37 when the Pacers follow up an ATS win over the last three seasons, with those games reaching an average of 214 points - well south of tonight's posted total. The Hawks haven't been a terrible defensive team this season. Quite the opposite, in fact. Atlanta is allowing 111.4 points per game against opponents that average 112.7 ppg. Here at home, it is giving up 110 ppg on the season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-21 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 111-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Phoenix at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the 76ers loss against the Blazers on Thursday but did cash with Portland. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again as Philadelphia continues its road trip with an early start matchup in Phoenix. The Suns, of course, have been one of the league's better 'under' bets this season but come into this game off of consecutive 'over' results. Keep in mind, games involving the Suns have totaled an average of just over 218 points this season. This play is supported by a trend that has seen the 'under' cash at a 41-14 clip over the last five seasons when the Suns have won four or more games in a row and face a quality opponent. Also note that the 76ers are allowing just over 109 points per game when coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
NBA on TNT TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This is being billed as a showdown between two of the league's top scorers in Joel Embiid and Damian Lillard. I believe the game may come down to defense, however. Keep in mind, these two teams just met earlier this month with the Blazers stunning the 76ers by a 121-105 score in Philadelphia. That was an uncharacteristically sloppy performance from Philadelphia as it committed 18 turnovers and gave up 19 offensive rebounds, directly contributing to the Blazers getting off 98 field goal attempts. Note that only the Lakers have been better than the 76ers in terms of defensive efficiency away from home this season. While the Blazers rank near the bottom of the Association in that category overall they actually sit sixth over their last three games. On the flip side, the Blazers somewhat surprisingly rank in the bottom-third of the NBA in floor percentage at home. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | 95-133 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams desperate to get back in the win column and both ranking in the bottom-five in the league in terms of pace rating, I'm not sure the relatively high posted total is warranted in this situation. The Cavs improbably scored 113 points in Monday's loss to the Suns in Phoenix - their highest scoring output since putting up 122 points in a win over the Pistons back on January 27th. I'm not counting on a repeat performance in the high altitude of Denver on Wednesday night, however. Note that the Cavs serve as somewhat of a relic in today's NBA, averaging a league-low 9.2 three-pointers made per game this season. Denver's offensive numbers have actually been just fine this season - at least in terms of efficiency. As noted, the Nuggets haven't really been pushing the pace, ranking 28th in the league in pace rating. They desperately need to snap their three-game losing streak on Wednesday and I suspect they'll lean on the fundamentals, playing tough defense and taking care of the basketball at the offensive end of the floor. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-21 | Hornets v. Grizzlies UNDER 226 | Top | 114-130 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. On the heels of four straight losses and after giving up 128 points in Monday's loss to the Raptors, you have to think the Grizzlies will be hyper-focused on improving their defensive play in this seemingly winnable game against the Hornets on Wednesday night. Despite their recent slide, the Grizz still rank top 10 in the league in defensive rating. Unfortunately their offense has gone cold, with Ja Morant in particular really struggling to regain his shooting touch since returning from injury late last month. The Hornets have scored exactly 119 points in consecutive games, but still rank T21st in the league in field goal percentage and in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of pace rating. The last time these two teams met back on New Year's Day they combined to score just 201 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-29-21 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 232 | 116-100 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I believe the case could be made for this total to be set in the 140's. The Hawks have quietly gotten back to playing good basketball lately, going 4-2 over their last six games with their only two losses coming on the road against the Bucks and at home in overtime against the Nets. With that of course comes terrific play at the offensive end of the floor and I have no doubt they can expose a bad Wizards defense here. Washington continues to get out of this world production from Bradley Beal. While the Wiz have just three wins on the season, they're still fun to watch. Off a few blowout losses on the road, I'm confident we see them force the issue a little bit against a beatable Hawks defense on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-21 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 224 | 106-110 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a track meet between the Celtics and Spurs on Wednesday night. The Celtics have finally gotten healthy again and it has showed in their last two games, as they posted consecutive wins, scoring 141 and 119 points in the process. Meanwhile, the Spurs will be eager to get back on the floor after Monday's game in New Orleans was postponed. They notched a win over the Wizards on Sunday, scoring 121 points despite getting just nine points from Demar Derozan and not having a single starter score more than 16 points. The most recent matchup between these two teams came last January, with the Spurs winning a wild one by a 129-114 score. Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-21 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 108-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz are coming off a high-scoring game against the Pelicans on Thursday night but that was to be expected given the recent history between those two teams. Here, I look for Utah to control proceedings defensively and ultimately keep this one 'under' the posted total. The Warriors have been playing better lately and rank third in the league in pace rating but I'm not sure that up-tempo play will be all that fruitful against the Jazz given they're one of the league's better defensive teams (6th in defensive rating) and the fact that Golden State ranks 22nd in field goal percentage. While the Warriors aren't known for their strong defensive play, they do rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating. Note that prior to Thursday's 129-point outburst against an awful Pelicans defense, the Jazz had scored 118 points or less in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 225 | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The 76ers were involved in a wild, high-scoring game against the defense-optional Wizards last night but I look for the scoring to settle down considerably as they head to Brooklyn to face the Durant-less Nets on Thursday night. Note that Philadelphia ranks tops in the league in defensive efficiency while Brooklyn isn't far behind sitting in eighth. It's also worth noting that the 76ers are second in the league in block percentage with the Nets once again ranking eighth. We won with the Nets in their last game as they routed the Jazz thanks in large part to a tremendous defensive start to that game. Without Kevin Durant sidelined, the Nets need to keep the emphasis on playing fundamentally-sound defensive basketball, even in the face of a tough challenge against the surging 76ers on Thursday. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving will once again get his, but don't count on Brooklyn hanging another 130-spot on the board against what is sure to be a highly-motivated 76ers squad. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series which was the highest scoring game of the series to date. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in what could be the clincher for the Lakers on Friday night. The Heat have obviously not backed down at any point in these playoffs and I'm confident we'll see them bring their best effort on Friday. If they're going to extend the series they're obviously going to need to shoot much better than they did in Game 4, when they connected on just 43% of their field goal attempts. On the flip side, I think we can expect a better shooting performance from the Lakers after they made good on just 44% of their attempts in Game 4. We've once again seen a downward shift in the posted total, which much like in Game 2, plays right into our favor here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Friday. This total is going the wrong way in my opinion following an 'under' result in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that relatively low-scoring series-opening result, seven straight games involving these two teams (in the Conference Finals) had gone 'over' the total we're dealing with here in Game 2. The Heat will likely be undermanned in this one with Bam Adebayo dealing with a neck strain. His absence shouldn't be underestimated as he was named to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team just last month. I do think we'll see the Heat punch back after their no-show in Game 1, although the lopsided spread would seem to indicate otherwise. In fact, neither team performed quite up to standards offensively in the series-opener - yet the final score still nearly eclipsed the total. Even the Lakers have room for impnrovement offensively. I expect a different story to unfold here on Friday night and we're being offered a very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't had much of a prayer of slowing down the Celtics multi-dimensional offensive attack during this series and as a result they're facing the prospect of elimination on Wednesday night. I don't expect the Raps to suddenly come up with an answer for the four-headed monster of Brown, Tatum, Walker and Smart on Wednesday. With that being said, I also don't expect to see Siakam and Lowry combine to make a paltry eight shots again either. The Raptors are the defending champions and as such, I don't think we'll see them go away quietly. This is the lowest posted total we've seen in this series so far, and I believe it will prove far too low on Wednesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total in this matchup since Game 1, despite the fact that the series-opener did manage to reach 219 total points (not much lower than the closing total of 224). I believe we'll consider to see the totals drop as this series progresses as we should be in for another relatively low-scoring affair (by today's NBA standards) on Wednesday. Keep in mind, both teams shot the ball pretty well, particularly from three-point range, two nights ago. As expected, Miami was able to slow down the Bucks pace, something I think we'll continue to see as the series goes on. The Bucks got punched in the mouth in Game 1 but I'm confident we'll see them punch back on Wednesday. But am I confident enough that I'm willing to lay a handful of points with them against a gritty Heat squad? Not a chance. Instead we'll focus on the total and call for a tightly-contested affair in Game 2. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 78-80 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been an 'over' bettors' dream and while I understand the logic behind posting a lower total with this being Game 7 and all, I'm not about to jump off the 'over' train. Generally, we see the defensive intensity ramp up in Game 7 but these aren't typical circumstances. Without the raucous atmosphere these players are accustomed to, not to mention home court advantage, we just haven't seen that same level of defensively intensity, regardless what point of a series we're talking about. Here, I look for both teams to continue to get the looks they want on offense, and continue to execute at a very high level at the offensive end of the floor. Take the over (10*). |
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08-29-20 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 | 122-131 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Saturday. The Blazers will try to avoid elimination at the hands of Lebron and co. on Saturday night but they'll be hard-pressed to do so without the services of Damian Lillard. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total here, but I still believe it will prove too high as Portland makes a desperate attempt to stay in the series, ultimately missing plenty of shots against what will be a motivated Lakers squad. Los Angeles has gotten better as this series has progressed and while it has given up its share of points, I expect it to tighten things up and completely shut down the Blazers on Saturday night, helping this one stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 221 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. We've been playing the 'over' every game in this series and it has paid off nicely. There's no reason to jump ship on Tuesday as we should once again see a high-scoring affair between these familiar foes. While in some cases I would shy away from playing the 'over' in an elimination game here in the "bubble" I believe this situation is a little different. The Nuggets still believe they can get back in the series and should really push the pace in this one noting the last game was decided by just two points in favor of the Jazz, with Denver shooting 49% from the field overall and 39% from three-point range. That contest got to 252 total points despite the Nuggets getting to the free throw line only 13 times (making 12 of those attempts). Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 216.5 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Miami at 6:30 pm et on Monday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point (by today's NBA standards at least). I look for some carry-over from Game 4 on Monday, however, noting that Saturday's game reached a series-high 239 total points. This is it for the Pacers. They'll be in desperation mode on Monday and they at the very least have proven they can score against Miami, having put up at least 100 points in all four previous games in this series. As for Miami, it managed to score 124 points despite shooting just 45% from the field in Game 4. The Heat were certainly aggressive, however, getting to the free throw line a whopping 52 times in that contest. Expect they to make a concerted effort to close out the Pacers here, leading to a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 217 | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 9 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. That missed call obviously had a lot to do with a slow start as well as a poor shooting performance from the Nuggets (38% from the field). Here, the Nuggets will need to bounce back with a better effort as this is a pivotal game in this series with the Jazz up 2-1. The first two games in the series easily eclipsed the total but the low-scoring Game 3 has helped keep the number in check here on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 226 | 121-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game by today's NBA standards in Game 2 of this series on Thursday and I look for more of the same on Saturday. The Bucks quite simply got caught flat-footed in the series-opener and Orlando took full advantage. After making the necessary adjustments, Milwaukee was able to hold the Magic to a miserable 35% shooting overall and 21% from beyond the arc in Game 2. I'm not convinced we see a big bounce-back performance from Orlando in that regard here. The Bucks will get theirs offensively but I'm not sure they'll need to keep their foot on the gas right to the final whistle. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 4 pm et on Friday. We've won with the 'over' in each of the first two games in this series and there's no reason to stray from our thinking here. We can expect to see major pushback from the Nuggets after their poor showing in Game 2. There were positives for them to take away from that blowout loss as they did ultimately shoot 46% from the field and 48% from three-point range. Here, I look for them to push the pace a little more and force the issue against a beatable Jazz defense. Utah turned in an incredibly clean performance in Game 2, dishing out 32 assists compared to only six turnovers. The Jazz also got whatever they wanted in the paint, holding a 48-28 scoring edge. At some point you have to figure we'll see an adjustment to this total but so far the oddsmakers are holding steady. I believe the number will prove too low once again. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Denver at 4 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 in this series eclipsed the total with ease and while the oddsmakers have raised the total slightly for Game 2, I don't believe it will be enough. It's interesting that the series-opener got to a whopping 260 points despite the fact there were only 32 made free throws in the game. Both teams got all the open looks they wanted and I don't see a whole lot changing here in Game 2. The Jazz are obviously going to need more production from players not named Donovan Mitchell after he poured in 57 points in Game 1. I'm expecting Utah to do a much better job of capitalizing on its opportunities at the offensive end of the floor, noting that it did pull in 16 offensive boards on Monday. Meanwhile, the Jazz didn't have an answer for the Nuggets offense last time out and I don't see much changing on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans OVER 238.5 | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and New Orleans at 6:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the Grizzlies narrow loss to the Spurs yesterday afternoon but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as they match up against the struggling Pelicans on Monday. New Orleans is off to an 0-2 start so it will certainly be highly motivated to break out of its funk on Monday evening. This appears to be an ideal matchup for the Pelicans to do just that as they should be able to get out and run against a weary Grizzlies squad playing on no rest. Meanwhile, the Grizz have had two highly contrasted games so far with a high-scoring track meet against the Blazers followed by yesterday's relatively tight affair against the Spurs. Here, I'm confident we'll see them get loose and find some offensive success against a Pelicans that has struggled defensively all season long. Take the over (10*). |
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08-02-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between San Antonio and Memphis at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Travel day today. Full analysis will return on Monday. |
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07-31-20 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 218.5 | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Friday. We saw both games stay 'under' the total in yesterday's double-header but I expect a different story to unfold as the Celtics and Bucks match up on day two of the NBA restart. Despite yesterday's results, I still believe we'll see some high-scoring affairs in the early going here at Disney as the teams have had more than enough time to get back into shape and acclimated with their surroundings. The Celtics and Bucks are two of the league's most dynamic offensive tams and I'm comfortable playing the 'over' at what I consider to be a low number. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-20 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 216 | 101-103 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Clippers and Lakers at 9 pm et on Thursday. Questions around Anthony Davis' health and absent members of the Clippers have pushed this total lower, but I believe it will prove too low as the oddsmakers shade the totals lower in general due to the uncertainty around the style of play in the Disney restart. I'm actually anticipating something resembling 'normal' NBA basketball as we get going here in Orlando. The players have had enough time to settle in to 'bubble life' and get acclimated back with the game of basketball during exhibition affairs. I don't need to tell you that both of these teams are capable of pushing the tempo and hanging crooked numbers on the scoreboard. This is the lowest total we've seen the oddsmakers put out there in a matchup between these L.A. rivals this season and I believe we should take advantage. Take the over (10*). |
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07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 221 | 106-104 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and New Orleans at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. While more than a little rust is to be expected as the NBA returns following a four-month hiatus, I do feel that these teams have had more than enough time to get acclimated with their surroundings at Disney Wide World of Sports and I believe we'll see something that closely resembles 'normal' NBA play on Thursday. This is the lowest posted total we've seen in this particular matchup this season, noting that all three regular season affairs went 'over' the total. The Pelicans got good news with the return of Zion Williamson this week and by all accounts he'll be good to go for Thursday's opener. I'll take a shot with the 'over' as I anticipate a relatively loose affair to get things started in Orlando. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Magic have exploded for 132 and 126 points in posting consecutive wins in Minnesota and Houston but I believe they'll be in for a stiffer challenge in Memphis on Tuesday. Going back to February 26th, Orlando has actually scored 130+ points on two other occasions as well, but those performances came against the T'Wolves (again) and the Hawks - one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Memphis has been playing pretty solid defensive basketball lately, save for a poor performance in Dallas last Friday. Outside of that, the Grizz have allowed 104 points or less in five of their last six games. Note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 54-15 going all the way back to 1996 when the total has been set at 220 or higher and both teams are coming off blowout wins (by 15+ and 20+ points). This trend has cashed at a 14-5 clip this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-20 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 246 | 112-118 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This has all the makings of a track meet, hence the extremely high posted total - although not exorbitant by today's standards. Both teams are coming off rare subpar offensive performances and that leads me to believe we'll see a big bounce-back here. Neither defense will offer anything in the way of resistance and I'm confident we'll see both offenses push the tempo from start to finish. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-20 | Wolves v. Pelicans OVER 246.5 | 139-134 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NBA board but it's high for a reason. The Pelicans are a big favorite here but they're in a definite letdown spot off Sunday night's showdown with Lebron James and the Lakers. We can anticipate them letting their guard down defensively and the T'Wolves are certainly able to take advantage. On the flip side, Minnesota won't have any answers for the Pelicans steadily-improving offense led by mighty Zion. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-20 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 215 | 99-96 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Friday night. The Raptors are in an obvious emotional letdown spot here, coming off that tough loss to the Bucks on Tuesday night and now facing the lowly Hornets. Note that the 'over' is 26-15 when the Hornets have played with double revenge over the last two seasons with those games averaging over 222 total points. The 'over' is 14-3 when the Raptors face opponents that get outscored by at least three points per game this season, with those contests totaling an average of just under 233 total points per game. Two previous meetings between these teams this season have totaled 228 and 222 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-27-20 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. With both of these teams playing the second of back-to-back nights (and both coming off losses), I don't think either will be looking to get involved in a track meet here. Keep in mind, the 76ers are down a couple of bodies in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Philadelphia allowed the Cavs to shoot 52.6% from the field in last night's upset loss in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Knicks shot better than 50% but still managed only 101 points against a bad Hornets team in Charlotte. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Sixers focus on the defensive end of the floor, and they've been outstanding in that regard here at home, giving up just over 102 points per game while holding the opposition to 43.8% shooting. The Knicks have held six of their last seven opponents below 50% shooting, which is a step in the right direction given their struggles this season. Away from home they're limiting the opposition to 46.4% shooting this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-20 | Bucks v. Wizards OVER 241 | 137-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This total indicates the high potential for a track meet on Monday night, just as we saw the last time these two teams met back in January when they combined to score a whopping 282 points in Milwaukee. Note that the Wizards have posted a 9-1 o/u record after failing to cover the spread in consecutive games this season with those contests totaling an average of nearly 243 points. There's no reason to shy away from playing 'over' these high totals with the Wiz involved as the 'over' has gone 19-10 in their games where the total has been set at 230 points or higher, with those contests finishing with an average of just under 244 total points. The Bucks have come storming out of the All-Star break with back-to-back blowout wins over the Pistons and 76ers but I could certainly envision a bit of a letdown here, and that should open the door for a competitive, high-scoring affair in the nation's capital. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-20 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 238.5 | Top | 115-101 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' as the surging Pelicans head to San Francisco to take on the reeling Warriors on Sunday evening. Most will be expecting a track meet here, especially with the Pelicans coming off a 128-115 win and the Warriors off a 135-105 loss in their respective first games following the All-Star break. Note that the 'under' has gone 21-9 when the Warriors face an opponent with a losing record this season, with those games averaging just 113 total points. The 'under' has also gone 13-4 when the Warriors have lost at least four straight losses this season, with those games averaging right around 118 total points - again far south of the total we're working with. New Orleans has seen the 'under' go 131-99 when on the road revenging a same season loss. The Pelicans have allowed just one of their last 11 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Take the under (10*). |
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02-14-20 | World v. USA OVER 298 | 131-151 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between World and USA in the NBA All-Star Rising Stars Game at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Last year's Rising Stars Game reached 305 total points. I don't believe they've set this year's total high enough as this will be the ultimate track meet. Team USA is favored by around five points in this one, and rightfully so with an absolutely loaded roster led by Trae Young and Zion Williamson. I don't expect the World Team to back down, however, not with Luka Doncic leading the way. No need to overthink this one, this will be one of the highlights of All-Star Weekend, as it always is. Take the over (10*). |
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02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards UNDER 230 | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind this lofty total but I feel it will prove too high on Tuesday night at Capital One Arena. The Bulls have not been the same team offensively on the road this season, where they rank 23rd in the league in offensive rating. On the flip side, they check in a very respectable ninth in defensive rating away from home. While Washington is known for its up-tempo offense, the fact is it sits middle of the pack in offensive rating at home (15th in the NBA). Not surprisingly, the Wiz are near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories but can the Bulls really take advantage? It's not as if Chicago has been performing well offensively in recent games as it ranks 24th in the Association in offensive rating over its last five contests. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-20 | Heat v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Portland at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers most recent home game - a high-scoring win over the Spurs. I expect a different type of contest to play out on Sunday, however, as Portland hosts the injury-plagued Heat. Only the Pistons have played at a slower pace than the Heat over their last five games and I expect that trend to continue here as Miami continues to play without Jimmy Butler among others. Note that Miami ranks 27th in the league in pace rating on the road this season as well. Portland sits in a tie for 13th in pace rating over its last five games and finds itself playing its third game in four nights here on Sunday. While I'm not anticipating a defensive slugfest by any means, I do expect this one to stay 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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02-08-20 | Mavs v. Hornets OVER 216.5 | 116-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Dallas' one-point loss in Washington last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Mavs continue their road trip in Charlotte. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, the Mavs rank tops in the league in offensive rating on the road this season. Here, they draw another favorable matchup against a Hornets squad that ranks 27th in the league in defensive rating at home this season - only the Cavs, Hawks and Wizards rank worse. While the Hornets rank last in the league in pace rating here at home, I do think they'll make a concerted effort to push the pace on Saturday night with the Mavs in a back-to-back spot, and still playing without Luka Doncic. In Doncic's absence, Dallas continues to struggle defensively, sitting 22nd in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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02-07-20 | Mavs v. Wizards OVER 234 | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Even with the Mavs injury issues, I'll back the 'over' in Washington on Friday night. The Mavs sit 27th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games - only the Cavs, Bulls and Wizards have been worse over that same stretch. Not surprisingly, that coincides with the injury to Luka Doncic. Despite losing Doncic, the Mavs still sit 12th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests and should be able to find success regardless whether Kristaps Porzingis suits up after suffering a broken nose last time out. Note that the Mavs rank tops in the league in offensive rating on the road this season and it's really not all that close. The Wizards are fifth in the NBA in offensive rating over their last five games. Only the Cavs are worse than the Wiz in defensive rating at home, again opening the door for an undermanned but still effective Mavs offense here. Expect a track meet. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-20 | Spurs v. Blazers OVER 231.5 | Top | 117-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this key Western Conference showdown on Thursday night. The Spurs were a virtual no-show against the Lakers last time out (we won with Los Angeles in that game) but couldn't really be blamed as they were in a tough back-to-back spot after taking the Clippers down to the wire the previous night. Of course, the Blazers also got blown out in their last game, dropping a lopsided decision in Denver (we won with the Nuggets). Here, I expect both teams to show up and show out, offensively at least. Note that the Spurs rank ninth in the league in offensive rating on the road this season. The downside is they rank 26th in defensive rating away from home, with only the Hornets, Cavs, Hawks and Wizards - four of the league's worst teams - ranking worse. It's a similar story for the Blazers at home. They're fourth in offensive rating here in the Pacific Northwest but 27th in defensive rating with only the Pistons, Wizards and Cavs sitting below them - again, three of the league's weakest defensive teams. The last time these two teams met back in November they smashed this same posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 216 | 98-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. You have to think the Jazz, who have been idle since Saturday, will be looking to push the pace at every opportunity against a Nuggets squad playing its third game in four days (in three different cities). With that being said, I don't think we'll see Denver back down in this showdown between the Northwest Division's top two teams, noting that the Nuggets managed to score 127 points despite barely breaking a sweat against the previously red hot Trail Blazers last night (we won with Denver in that game). The last meeting between these two teams took place just last week with the Nuggets prevailing by a 106-100 score at home. Expect a higher-scoring affair this time around. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-20 | Hawks v. Wolves OVER 236.5 | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I expect nothing less than a track meet between these 'defense-optional' teams on Wednesday night in Minnesota. The Hawks were already short-handed before getting involved in Tuesday's expansive four-team trade with the Rockets, Nuggets and T'Wolves. There's little doubt Minnesota will look to push the pace against Atlanta here as it looks to finally snap its long losing streak but I don't think we'll see the Hawks shy away from that at all. Note that Atlanta sits in the top half of the league in offensive rating over its last five games, despite three of those contests coming against the likes of Toronto, Boston and Dallas. The Raps and Celtics sit second and third respectively in terms of defensive rating over their last five games. Here, Atlanta should find the going much easier against a T'Wolves squad that ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating over that same stretch. The Hawks check in third in pace rating over their last five contests while the T'Wolves are top 10 in that category as well over the same time frame. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-20 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 216 | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pacers continue to struggle defensively, as they sit 20th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. They let the Mavs get whatever they wanted offensively on Monday night (despite missing Luka Doncic), falling for a second straight game at home. That makes this a nightmarish matchup against a surging Raptors squad that ranks sixth in the league in offensive rating over their last five games while also sitting in the top half of the league in pace rating over that same stretch. With that being said, the Pacers are still a quality basketball team and it's only a matter of time before Victor Oladipo settles in and starts knocking down his shots after returning a couple of games back. Here, I do think they'll get baited into an up-tempo affair. It's worth noting that these two teams combined to score 235 points in their most recent meeting back on December 23rd. Take the over (10*). |
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01-28-20 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 114-130 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with an extremely high total here when you consider the Raptors are locked in defensively right now, ranking sixth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. The Hawks are fresh off an emotional, predictably high-scoring win at home against the Wizards on Sunday but should find the going much tougher as they step up in class here on Tuesday night in Toronto. Despite that offensive explosion on Sunday, the Hawks still sit just 15th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. Take the under (10*). |
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01-24-20 | Kings v. Bulls UNDER 219 | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Kings carry a reputation as being an up-tempo offensive team but that simply hasn't been the case, certainly of late. Sacramento ranks 19th in the league in pace rating over its last five games and 20th in offensive rating. Chicago has been even worse, sitting 23rd in offensive rating over that same stretch. It is worth noting that the Kings rank dead last in the league in defensive rating over their last five contests but that's certainly been baked into this total, and I'm just not sure Chicago is capable of taking advantage tonight. For their part, the Bulls sit in the top nine in defensive rating over that same time frame. Take the under (10*). |
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01-15-20 | Magic v. Lakers UNDER 211.5 | 119-118 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Staples Center on Wednesday night, noting that these two teams combined to score just 183 total points in their last meeting back in December. The Lakers are tops in the league in defensive rating over their last five games while the Magic aren't far behind sitting in third spot. On the flip side, the Lakers rank an impressive second in offensive rating over that same stretch but keep in mind, three of their last five contests came against three of the league's worst defensive teams in the Pistons, Wizards and Cavaliers. The Magic check in 17th in offensive rating over their last five games. Neither team has been really pushing the pace lately with the Lakers sitting 14th and the Magic 19th over their last five. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-20 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 226.5 | 107-117 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' at Staples Center on Wednesday night as both the Suns and Lakers seek their third straight victories. Note that Phoenix checks in sixth in offensive rating over its last five games. The Lakers on the other hand, do sit in the top half of the league in that category (14th) over the same stretch. In terms of defensive rating, the Suns rank a miserable 28th over their last five contests while the Lakers haven't been much better, sitting 22nd. Both teams have been middle of the pack in terms of pushing the pace lately, but that doesn't concern me all that much as I think both can be drawn into an up-and-down affair here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets OVER 220 | Top | 104-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This has the makings of a track meet as the Nuggets visit the Rockets on New Year's Eve. Denver ranks tops in the league in offensive rating over its last five games while Houston not surprisingly has impressed in that regard as well, sitting in seventh. Meanwhile, the Rockets are just 20th in defensive rating while the Nuggets have fallen off in that department as well, sitting 19th over the same time frame. We'll see a contrast in styles here with the Rockets always looking to push the pace, and currently ranking ninth in the league in pace rating over their last five contests while the Nuggets sit 25th. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Hornets v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 | Top | 93-119 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Boston at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this total sets up on Sunday evening. The Hornets are coming off another high-scoring affair last night against the Jazz, due in large part to a track meet of a first half before things settled down later in the game. Note that the Hornets surprisingly check in ranked fifth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. The Celtics are top-10 in the league in that department over that same stretch, sitting in ninth. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks a miserable 29th in offensive rating over its last five games - despite that big scoring night on Saturday. Serving our purposes well, the Celtics are 25th in pace rating while the Hornets are dead last in the league in the same category over their last five contests. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Bucks v. Knicks OVER 227 | 123-102 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and New York at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. I like the chances of this one developing into a track meet as the Bucks travel to Manhattan to face the Knicks. Of course, New York got its doors blown off in last night's rout at the hands of the Heat in Miami. Still, the Knicks check in tops in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. Who sits right behind them? The Bucks of course. On the flip side, we've seen Milwaukee lag a bit defensively of late, dropping from a perennial top three spot in defensive rating to 14th over its last five contests. The Knicks are defensive doormats, ranking 28th in defensive rating over their last five games. I'm confident we'll see the Bucks push the pace in this one. They're fifth in the league in pace rating over their last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Jazz v. Hornets UNDER 210 | 114-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Charlotte at 5:05 pm et on Saturday. This is a relatively low posted total but it's warranted in my opinion. Charlotte checks in sporting the league's second worst (relatively speaking) pace rating over its last five games. At the same time, it ranks an impressive fifth in the NBA in defensive rating over that stretch. Utah doesn't figure to break through as it sits in the bottom half in offensive rating over its last five contests. Like the Hornets, the Jazz have also been playing better defensive ball of late, checking in top 10 in defensive rating over that same time frame. Take the under (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Nets v. Spurs UNDER 219 | 105-118 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Spurs continue to play up-tempo but their offense is lagging at the moment as they check in a dismal 29th in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. The Nets haven't been much better, sitting 25th in that department over the same stretch. On the flip side, the Brooklyn defense has been sneaky-good lately as it rates third in the NBA in defensive rating over its last five contests. That puts it in excellent position to contain the Spurs aggressive offense in this matchup. Note that San Antonio has also turned things around defensively, ranking sixth in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. It should be able to handle a Brooklyn squad that is missing Kyrie Irving and ranks smack in the middle of the Association in pace rating over its last five games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Jazz v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We're getting a relatively low total to work with here (at least by Hawks standards) largely due to Atlanta's recent struggles offensively. However, the pace is still absolutely there as the Hawks check in fourth in the league in pace rating over their last five games, and here they catch a favorable matchup against a Jazz squad that isn't playing at the same level of defensive intensity as it was earlier this season. Note that Utah currently sits in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. On the flip side, the Jazz's offense has come on lately, ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch and they should certainly be able to keep it rolling against one of the worst defensive teams in the league in Atlanta. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-19 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 231.5 | 107-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I fully expect to see a track meet between these two 'defense optional' opponents on Wednesday night. The T'Wolves check in dead last in the NBA in defensive rating over their last five games and it's not really all that close. The Pelicans aren't much better in that regard, sitting 25th in the league in that category over the same stretch. While New Orleans continues to lag offensively in the absence of Zion Williamson, the T'Wolves have been lighting it up, sitting top-five in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. Both teams check in top-11 in the NBA in pace rating over that same time frame. This is a high posted total but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-19 | Hornets v. Cavs UNDER 213.5 | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up well as a relatively low-scoring affair by today's NBA standards. The Hornets are playing the second of back-to-back nights after pulling away for a win over the Kings at home last night. Even with that 110-point effort they still sit just 23rd in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. I don't really consider them a good defensive team by any means but the numbers support it lately as they're top-eight in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. Neither of these teams have been pushing the pace, both checking in bottom-seven in the league in pace rating over their last five contests. The Cavs are 17th in offensive rating over that time frame but remain one of the league's weakest offensive squads overall. Take the under (10*). |
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12-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets UNDER 208 | 102-110 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a low total by today's NBA standards but I believe the number is warranted. Keep in mind, both the Kings and Hornets check in bottom-four in the league in pace rating over their last five games. That's not to mention the fact that Charlotte sits 24th in offensive rating over that same stretch. The Kings come in playing well, winners of four of their last five, but the Hornets have held their own defensively of late, ranking in the top half of the league in defensive rating over their last five contests and should keep Sacramento in check relatively speaking. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-19 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 228 | 111-110 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up as a track meet in the desert on Monday night. The Blazers are coming off three straight games against relatively slow-paced opponents that find themselves in the bottom-seven of the league in pace rating over their last five games. Here, they'll go up against a Suns squad that ranks second in pace rating over that same stretch. Note that while the Blazers sit a disappointing 26th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games, they sit in the top half of the league in offensive rating over that time frame. Look for a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair between these two Western Conference foes. Take the over (10*). |
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12-14-19 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | 122-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' on Saturday night as the Heat look to bounce back from last night's loss to the Lakers. Keep in mind, Miami has been playing an awful lot of basketball lately, with three of its last six games needing overtime to decide. Note that the Heat and the Mavs sit bottom nine in pace rating over their last five games, with Miami playing particularly slow, ranking 28th in the league. Both teams have been performing well offensively with Dallas actually leading the league in offensive rating over its last five contests but I'm not sure that it will draw the Heat into a real high-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-19 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 210.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these offenses got loose last time out and I expect to see some progression from those performances here as the Warriors and Jazz do battle in Utah. Keep in mind, the last five meetings in this series have all eclipsed the total we're dealing with here. There's little reason to believe the Warriors will be able to do anything to slow down a Jazz offense that averages close to 110 points per game at home. While Utah has held its own defensively this season it is still allowing north of 105 ppg on its home floor. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-19 | Pelicans v. Bucks OVER 234 | 112-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Milwaukee at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. I fully expect to see a track meet between these two teams on Wednesday night. The Pelicans are coming off a lower-scoring game than expected against the Pistons Monday. I don't think they have any hope of slowing down the high-octane Bucks offense here. As much as they don't want to trade baskets with Milwaukee, they're going to have to if they want to keep this one even remotely competitive. Note that the last three times these two teams have met they've combined to score at least 238 points. Expect more of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-19 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | 105-103 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Monday. This is a track meet waiting to happen as the Pistons travel to face the Pelicans on Monday night. Detroit checks in sporting the league's third best offensive rating over its last five games. That spells trouble for a New Orleans squad that sits 27th in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. A positive for the Pelicans, however, is the fact that they continue to push the tempo, ranking top eight in pace rating over their last five contests. The Pistons are virtually in the middle of the pack in defensive rating over that stretch, sitting 16th in the Association. Take the over (10*). |
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors UNDER 231.5 | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. No surprise at all that we're dealing with a sky-high total between the high-flying, defense optional Rockets and the defending champion Raptors on Thursday night. I simply feel that we'll see the Raptors do a pretty good job of locking down the Houston offense, while I'm not certain that Toronto has the offensive ability to really expose the Rockets defensive inefficiencies, at least not given its current form. The Raps are coming off an extremely rare home loss against the Heat on Tuesday so you can be sure they'll be jacked up for this one. Expect a tighter affair than the total would seem to indicate. Take the under (10*). |
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12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz OVER 209 | 121-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a predictably low-scoring game involving the Lakers last night as they came up with a big 105-96 road win in Denver. Here, I look for the offense to flow a little more freely as Los Angeles continues its road trip in Utah. The Jazz have been involved in their fair share of high-scoring games lately with the 'over' going 5-2 over their last seven contests. They should be in a foul mood coming off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and 76ers on the road and catch a favorable spot with the Lakers playing on no rest in altitude no less. The Lakers are shooting just shy of 49% from the field on the road this season and should find continued success at the offensive end of the floor in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-19 | Wolves v. Mavs OVER 229.5 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're in for a track meet in Dallas on Wednesday night as the Mavs return home on no rest to host the T'Wolves. Dallas barely broke a sweat in rolling to a 118-97 win over the Pelicans last night but should face a stiffer challenge here. Minnesota comes in highly-motivated following a 115-107 home loss to the lowly Grizzlies. Keep in mind, the T'Wolves have actually been a better team on the road this season, where they've gone 7-2 straight-up. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-19 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 237 | 132-138 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This may look like an exorbitantly high total on paper, but it's warranted in my opinion. This one sets up nicely from all angles. The Spurs rank top-10 in offensive rating and second-last in defensive rating over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Wizards have been near the top of the chart in terms of offensive rating all season, currently sitting fifth over their last five contests. They're 28th in defensive rating over the same stretch. The Wiz are also tied for fourth in pace rating over their last five games and while the Spurs check in 18th in that category, I think the sheer ineptness of the Wizards defense, and the fact that San Antonio may be playing catch-up most of the night, plays in our favor with an 'over' ticket in hand. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-19 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 228 | 115-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. It may seem a little odd playing the 'under' in a game between the two teams that rank first and second in the league in pace rating over their last five games. But neither squad in is peak form offensively, with Milwaukee sitting a surprising 23rd in the league in offensive rating over its last five contests and Chicago nearly pulling up the rear in 29th. The Bucks check in second in defensive rating while the Bulls are a solid fifth in that department over their last five games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-19 | Nets v. Nuggets OVER 221.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Denver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in Denver on Thursday night. Brooklyn checks in ranking sixth in the league in offensive rating and fourth in pace rating over its last five games. This is certainly not an ideal matchup, however, as the Nets face a Nuggets squad that ranks third in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. I do feel that given the pace and efficiency we've seen from Brooklyn offensively in recent games that it will be able to find some success in this matchup, noting that there's a good chance it will be in comeback mode much of the way. Denver ranks a miserable 23rd in the league in offensive rating and 29th in pace rating over its last five contests but this is a true 'get right' spot against a Nets squad that ranks 28th in defensive rating over that same stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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11-13-19 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 225.5 | 133-140 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Boston at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this one sets up as a track meet at TD Garden on Wednesday night. The Wizards check in ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over their last five games while sitting dead last in defensive rating over that same stretch. While Boston does rank eighth in defensive rating over its last five, I think the Wiz can overcome that somewhat and contribute to our cause thanks to their up-tempo style of play. Washington sits fifth in the league in pace rating over its last five games. For the Celtics part, they rank third in offensive rating over their last five and should be able to blowtorch a struggling Wiz defense here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-19 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 219 | 124-108 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for on Thursday night. Miami checks in an impressive fifth in the league in defensive rating over its last five games while sitting 17th in pace rating over that same stretch. On the flip side, the Heat rank bottom 10 in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. The upstart Suns rank ninth in offensive rating over that same stretch but it's also worth noting they're surprisingly in the top half of the league in defensive rating. They will look to push the tempo here, but I'm not anticipating a track meet. Take the under (10*). |
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10-24-19 | Hawks v. Pistons UNDER 222.5 | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Pistons were involved in a high-scoring affair to open the season last night as they rode a big fourth quarter to a win in Indiana. I look for things to settle down a bit on Thursday as they play their home opener against the Hawks. Note that during the preseason the Hawks ranked 32nd in offensive rating (yes, they finished behind both Melbourne and Guangzhou). Atlanta was one of the league's highest-scoring teams a year ago, but I'm not expecting it to come roaring out of the gates here. While Detroit did allow 110 points in last night's season-opener in Indiana, I liked what I saw from the Pistons defensively when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter. Note that we haven't seen a game between these two teams on this floor come all that close to tonight's posted total going back to the start of the 2017-18 season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-19 | Cavs v. Magic UNDER 214 | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Preseason results matter, at least when it comes to the NBA. We rode some preseason data to a 2-0 start to the season last night and I'll go back to the well with similar plays on Wednesday. The Cavs and Magic certainly weren't looking to push the tempo in the preseason, ranking 33rd (factoring in the non-NBA teams that were involved in preseason play) and 26th respectively in terms of pace rating. While the Cavs struggled at the defensive end of the floor, the Magic actually appeared in midseason form, ranking seventh in defensive rating. As far as offensive rating goes, the Magic and Cavs ranked 28th and 30th respectively. Expect a sluggish start from these two teams on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not convinced we're going to see the track meet the oddsmakers are calling for as the new-look Clippers and Lakers do battle at Staples Center on Tuesday night. Note that we don't have a lot to go on data-wise as the regular season begins but I do put some stock in preseason results when it comes to the NBA. During the exhibition slate, the Clippers and Lakers both ranked top-13 in the league in defensive rating with the Clippers checking in an impressive fourth. On the flip side, the Clips ranked 29th in terms of offensive rating during the preseason with the Lakers checking in 15th. Going a step further, neither the Clips or Lakers ranked in the top 10 in pace rating during the preseason. Take the under (10*). |
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10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 231 | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We don't have a whole lot of data to go on here in the early stages of the season but in the case of the NBA, I do believe that preseason tendencies do have some carry-over effect into the regular season. In this matchup, we have two teams that both ranked in the top five in the league in pace rating during the preseason (New Orleans was 2nd and Toronto 5th). Both also finished in the bottom eight of the league in terms of defensive rating with the Pelicans checking in 28th (just two spots ahead of the New Zealand Breakers) and the Raptors 22nd. While the total has been pushed up, it could be even higher were it not for the devastating injury to Pelicans first overall draft pick Zion Williamson. Even without the big man's presence in this one, I'm still anticipating a track meet. Take the over (10*). |
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06-10-19 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213.5 | 106-105 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Toronto at 9:07 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in Game 5 on Monday night. The Raptors may have won by double-digits but they actually didn't perform all that well offensively on Friday night. Kyle Lowry, Danny Green and Marc Gasol combined to shoot 2-for-15 from three-point range. In fact, Lowry and Green combined to score just 13 points. Meanwhile, the Warriors got off to a terrific start but couldn't sustain it, with Steph Curry in particular struggling for the first time in this series, shooting just 2-of-9 from beyond the arc. The Warriors connected on only eight three-pointers and 14 free throws in the loss, two areas I certainly expect to see them improve on with their backs against the wall in Toronto on Monday. Keep in mind, we've seen games involving these two teams total 238 and 227 points on this floor this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 216 | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Golden State at 9:07 pm et on Friday. The oddsmakers have made a considerable adjustment to the total in advance of Game 4 of this series on Friday night, largely due to a higher-scoring game than expected on Wednesday night. I certainly don't expect to see the Raptors shoot the lights out again on Friday, noting that this is a virtual must-win game for the Warriors. Golden State can ill afford to play at the same frenetic pace that we saw it employ on Wednesday as it fell behind early and could never recover. Golden State is expected to have Klay Thompson back on the floor for this one, but I don't believe his presence alone warrants such a bump to the total - the highest number we've seen in this series so far. Take the under (10*). |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 211.5 | 94-100 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen this total continue to drop as the series has gone on. After a relatively low-scoring series-opener we won with the 'over' in Game 2 before getting burned by double-overtime with an 'under' ticket in Game 3. Here, I'll go back to the total and back the 'over' as I'm anticipating a strong performance from both offenses. Toronto relied heavily on its hot three-point shooting in Game 5 on Thursday. That performance really came out of left field with Fred Van Vleet in particular going off from beyond the arc. While I don't anticipate another lights out performance from three-point range, I am confident the Raps can improve on their shot-making in closer range, where they struggled mightily at times in Game 5. They were getting open looks all game long - this time around I look for them to knock those shots down. Meanwhile, the Bucks got off to a hot start but then fizzled on Thursday, perhaps feeling some of the pressure on their home floor. Here, I look for Giannis in particular to do a much better job of getting to the rim and forcing the issue. Kawhi has done a tremendous job defending him to this point, but with the Bucks backs against the wall, I do expect a big effort from the 'Greek Freak'. It all boils down to this total being too low - an overreaction to recent results in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 220 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 102 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Portland at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We've already cashed with the 'under' twice in this series, including in Game 3 on Saturday night. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Monday, however, as the Warriors look to close out the Blazers and advance to the NBA Finals once again. We saw 209 total points in Game 3 despite the fact that the second half featured just 90 total points. That's not to mention the fact that the Warriors got just one three-pointer made from Klay Thompson and only two points from Andre Iguodala. In fact, the Warriors made only eight three-pointers as a team. Meanwhile, the Blazers saw Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum miss a combined 14 three-point shots and seven free throws. As expected, Seth Curry fell back to Earth, scoring just five points including one made three-pointer. I do expect Curry and the rest of the Blazers bench to perform much better on Monday night. This really is a bounce-back game in all aspects offensively for both teams. Even when the Warriors have had off nights, the Blazers still really haven't had any answers defensively. Meanwhile, for Portland this really is it. I at least expect to see it go down swinging, noting that the Blazers average north of 117 points per game at home this season. Remember, we did see a meeting total 236 points on this floor back in February with the Blazers pouring in 129 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 220 | 112-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series and then cashed the 'over' in Game 2. Here, I think we see the zig-zag pattern continue and expect a lower-scoring affair on Sunday night in Toronto. Note that the two teams combined for 23 made three-pointers and 45 converted free throws in Game 2 - a game that totaled 228 points. With the scene shifting to Toronto I think we'll see the Raptors do a little better job of controlling the tempo and note that the Raps rank 12th in the league in the playoffs in pace rating. The Bucks and Raptors are 1-2 in the league in defensive rating in the postseason. It's never that appealing playing the 'under' in a game involving the Bucks as we know they like to push the pace. But if the Raps are going to make this a series at all, they need to get things settled down, something they've shown they can do already in this series, in their 108-100 loss in the opener. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Portland at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. After winning with the 'under' in the opener of this series we missed the mark with the same play in Game 2. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' one more time on Saturday night, however, as the scene shifts to Portland for Game 3. It's not likely we're going to see another 16-point contribution from Seth Curry on Saturday night. Nor do I believe the Blazers will allow Steph Curry to go off the way he did in Games 1 and 2 in Oakland. It's certainly worth noting that the Warriors rank just eighth in pace rating in these playoffs, while the Blazers sit 11th. The Warriors know that they can do a much better job defending the perimeter than we saw in Game 2. On the flip side, I'm confident we'll see Portland come up with its best defensive effort of the series in what is essentially a must-win game on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 215.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Friday. We were very fortunate to win with the Bucks thanks to a game-ending 10-0 run in Game 1 of this series. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as I expect both teams to get offensive production from more sources than we saw in the opener. Toronto went silent offensively in the closing minutes of Game 1 and we're talking about a Raptors squad that generally closes well. Don't count on the Raps getting a combined miserable shooting performance of 3-for-16 from Marc Gasol and Danny Green again. I'm also confident Toronto will get to the free throw line more than the 20 times we saw in Game 1. On the flip side, the Bucks will be better as well after Eric Bledsoe shot 3-of-12 from the field including 0-for-6 from beyond the arc. George Hill didn't score a single point off the bench. I could go on. The fact is, we're in for a higher-scoring game on Friday night as far as I'm concerned. Keep in mind, these two teams combined to score 233 and 239 points in a couple of regular season meetings. Take the over (10*). |
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05-16-19 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 218.5 | 111-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Thursday. The Blazers were never able to find any sort of rhythm and ultimately couldn't break the 100-point mark despite getting to the free throw line 31 times and knocking down 27 of those attempts. While they'll undoubtedly shoot a little better from the field tonight, I'm not sure they're going to be able to break the Warriors down consistently. Golden State got a big night from Steph Curry in Game 1. Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala should contribute more offensively in Game 2, but again will it be enough to topple the total? I'm not so sure. The oddsmakers clearly overadjusted the total following a high-scoring Game 7 between the Warriors and Rockets. Now they've moved it down slightly, but not enough in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the under between Portland and Golden State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I thought we saw an overadjustment to the total in Kevin Durant‘s absence in Game 6 of the Warriors series against the Rockets. Now we’re seeing an overadjustment in the other direction as the Warriors open their series with the Blazers in Oakland on Tuesday night. I’m confident Golden State will have an answer defensively for the dynamic duo of Lillard and McCollum. On the flip side I’m not sure the Blazers are getting enough credit for their defensive play. We’ve seen the Warriors look sluggish out of the gate in a series before. I’ll call for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 211.5 | 89-125 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a throwback defensive slugfest between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as the Raptors picked up a much needed victory to even the series at two games apiece. Here, I look for both squads to come out aggressive and for the posted total to prove too low. The play of Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons is key for the 76ers. Both players have gone relatively quiet over the last couple of games but I really expect to see a big bounce-back performance shooting the basketball on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, the Raps came out aggressive in Game 4 and know that they'll need to play the same way in order to grab a 3-2 series lead. Toronto's bench remains invisible but head coach Nick Nurse didn't give them much floor time on Sunday, with the exception of Serge Ibaka, who was terrific. There's not a lot separating these two teams and while we could see another defensive affair, I simply feel that the oddsmakers have over-adjusted the total. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 221 | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series before cashing the 'over' in Game 2. After not playing the total in Game 3 (which went 'over'), I'll go back to the well with the 'under' in Game 4 on Monday. First of all, I don't expect this one to be called quite as tightly as Friday's contest - a game that saw a combined 68 free throws, including 22 trips to the line from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Kyrie Irving was quick to call out the officials in his post-game press conference, and don't think for a second that won't have an effect on how Monday's game is called. Even with the parade to the free throw line, and both teams shooting well from both two-point and three-point range, Game 3 still "only" got to 239 total points. I don't see these two teams approaching that number in this pivotal matchup on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 219.5 | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Wednesday. Surprisingly enough, the Nuggets actually rank second-last in the playoffs in pace rating. Meanwhile, the Blazers sit middle of the pack in that department. We saw both teams shoot exceptionally well in the series opener but I'm confident both will make the necessary adjustments - the Blazers in particular, to keep things in check on Wednesday night. There's no question this has been a high-scoring series all season but now we're dealing with a number that matches the highest total we've seen in this matchup to date. I expect this to be a long, tightly-contested series, and with that in mind, I look for the defenses to settle in and play much better on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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