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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-16-21 | Mets v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. |
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05-14-21 | Cubs v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams are both coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold as they open their series in Detroit on Friday night. Jake Arrieta will take the ball for Chicago. While this would appear to be a favorable bounce-back spot for him after he allowed seven earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his last start in Cincinnati, a closer look shows that the Tigers are actually seeing the ball well right now, having scored at least four runs in seven of their last eight games, and six runs or more in five of those contests. Arrieta is worse than the MLB average in terms of hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats and has also recorded a poor 35.1% fly ball percentage. In keeping with a trend from the last couple of seasons, Arrieta has posted a home run percentage north of 3% so far this year - in fact he's trending toward his highest home run rate since back in his second big league season in 2011. Speaking of home runs allowed, Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has had an incredibly tough time keeping the ball in the park, recording a 37.8% fly ball percentage and 8.0% home run percentage. Keep in mind, he also posted a 6.7% home run rate in 32 innings of work last season, noting that the MLB average sits at 3.3% going back to the start of last season. The Cubs have crushed left-handed starting pitching this season, posting a 7-3 record and hitting .273 as a team and averaging 6.8 runs per game. Skubal has yet to make it through the sixth inning in any of his five starts this season which opens the door for plenty of work for the Tigers down-trodden bullpen, which entered yesterday's action having posted a collective 6.62 ERA this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. |
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05-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these lineups have gotten a little healthier this week with the D'Backs welcoming back regular clean-up hitter Christian Walker and the Marlins getting back Brian Anderson. It's been a lopsided series so far with the Marlins doing most of the damage offensively. I look for both teams to take part on Thursday, however, as this total should prove too low. Madison Bumgarner has turned back the clock over his last few starts, most notably tossing a seven-inning no-hitter against the Braves two starts back. I question whether he can keep it up though. Note that the Marlins have hit considerably better against left-handed starters this season (.252 as a team), averaging 4.9 runs per game. Meanwhile, the D'Backs will face right-hander Pablo Lopez, noting that they're averaging 5.2 runs per contest against righty starters this season. Concerning for the Snakes here is their awful bullpen, which entered last night's action having posted a 5.30 ERA on the season, with that number ballooning to 8.58 over their last seven games. The Marlins 'pen has been far better but a 4.14 home ERA (entering last night's game) is nothing to write home about. This has been a reasonably high-scoring series in recent years with the 'over' going 5-2-2 in nine previous meetings over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Blue Jays prevailed by a 9-4 score to earn their first victory in three tries in this series. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday as Jays ace Hyun-Jin Ryu returns to the hill following a stint on the injured list to face A's veteran Mike Fiers. All indications are that Ryu is good to go after spending the minimum 10 days on the I.L. While the A's do check in sporting a 9-3 record against left-handed starters this season, Ryu will be the best they've faced and it's worth noting that they've actually hit just .218 against southpaw starters. Behind Ryu is a Jays bullpen that has been lights out this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Mike Fiers was a little shaky in his season debut for the A's but battled hard and managed to last six innings, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out three and walking two. I would expect Fiers to do a good job of eating some innings again here today, setting the table for an A's bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 1.23 ERA over the last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw last night's game between these two teams creep 'over' the total thanks to a seven-run outburst from the Yankees. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Astros send Luis Garcia to the hill against Jordan Montgomery. Garcia has perplexed opposing hitters in the early stages of his MLB career, posting a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He's also recorded a .184 opponents batting average in 32 1/3 big league innings not to mention a better than average 36.0% hard-hit ball percentage. Working behind Garcia is an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action having recorded a collective 1.71 ERA over its last seven games. Jordan Montgomery is off to a bit of an up and down start for the Yankees this season. There are some positives to take away, most notably Montgomery's 46.7% ground ball percentage and .214 opponents batting average. For his career, Montgomery has recorded a 34.2% hard-hit ball percentage, 4.5% lower than the MLB average. The Yankees bullpen has been elite this season with a collective 2.30 ERA entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams in yesterday's double-header at Coors Field, totaling 16 and 14 runs. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Logan Webb gets the nod for the Giants. He's been effective so far in his third big league season, recording a 32.9% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate, having posted a 58.5% ground ball percentage. That's not to mention a solid 22.8% strikeout percentage, which would be a career-high. Jon Gray has been even better for the Rockies. A former top-six Rookie of the Year candidate in 2016, Gray has been in excellent form through six starts this season, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Gray has recorded a 30.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 50.0% ground ball percentage. After posting a home run percentage 3.0% or higher in each of the last three seasons he's got that number down to 2.1% so far this season while holding opposing hitters to a collective .213 batting average. While neither bullpen is anything to write home about, I'm confident the starters can do enough to help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a lopsided result between these two teams last night as the White Sox cruised to a 9-0 victory. I expect both offenses to take part in today's contest, however, leading to a relatively high-scoring game. Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for Chicago. He turned back the clock and delivered a fine 2020 campaign, finishing fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He hasn't been able to regain that magic so far this season, despite a few strong outings, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Keuchel's strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate but he has also recorded a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40%. Perhaps the biggest concern is the fact that he's yet to last beyond the sixth inning in any of his six starts, which should mean we'll see plenty of the White Sox bullpen, which owns an ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray missed time due to injury at the start of the season and has yet to really round into form, although he is coming off an 11-strikeout performance last time out. He has yet to last through six innings in any of his three starts this season and again that's a concern as the Reds bullpen owns a collective ERA north of six at home this season. We didn't see the slugfest most envisioned in the opener of this series last night as only one team showed up. Here, I look for both to contribute to what should be a high-scoring afternoon at the park. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 9 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's series-opener between these two clubs crept 'over' the total by half a run but I look for a lower-scoring affair on Tuesday night in Oakland. The Blue Jays aren't hitting with much consistency on the road this season, entering this series batting a collective .213 while averaging 3.3 runs per game. The A's haven't been much better at home, entering the series hitting a collective .211 while averaging 4.2 runs per game here in Oakland. We have a matchup of two left-handed starters tonight with Anthony Kay taking the ball for the Jays against Cole Irvin. Kay got roughed up in his season debut but it wasn't all doom and gloom as he did record a 23.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 81.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate of 61.5%. I expect him to settle down and do a better job of keeping runs off the board here. Cole Irvin counters for Oakland. The former Phillie has had a tough time out of the gate as well, with his 49.4% hard-hit ball percentage most concerning. I do like the way he has battled, however, actually allowing only 11 earned runs in 27 innings of work. Also encouraging is the fact that he's issued just four walks in those 27 frames. I don't expect him to have all that long of a leash in this one and working behind him is a solid A's bullpen. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. PLEASE NOTE: Phil Maton will now get the start for the Indians. The original play on the 'over' stands. Maton owns an exit velocity off opposing bats north of 91 mph and a hard-hit ball percentage above 41% this season. He also owns a walk rate north of 11%. We saw a high-scoring game between these two clubs in last night's series-opener as the Indians prevailed by an 8-6 score. We've now seen at least 14 runs in four of the Royals last five games and at least 10 runs in all five of those contests. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. The Indians will give the start to Sam Hentges after Logan Allen was demoted following his last start. Hentges has yet to prove himself at the big league level after struggling in the minors in 2019. In limited work this season he has recorded an ugly 52.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Opponents are hitting .320 against him and he's already been tagged for three home runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work. Mike Minor has been serviceable for the Royals but isn't a strong candidate to manhandle many opposing lineups. Working behind him is a Kansas City bullpen that has struggled for much of the season, posting an ERA of nearly five. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the A's 7-5 win over the Orioles yesterday but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as they welcome the streaking Blue Jays to Oakland on Monday. Steven Matz will take the ball for Toronto, which checks in off a series sweep of the Braves in Dunedin. Matz is coming off a rough outing against the Nationals last week but his overall numbers this season remain strong. Matz has recorded a 36.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 49.3% ground ball percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. His fly ball percentage does sit north of 30% which is a concern, but perhaps not quite as much of one pitching here at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. Matz has improved on both his opponents batting average and his home run percentage this season and I like him in this bounce-back spot on Monday. Frankie Montas has had a couple of brutal outings against the Dodgers and Twins but has been sharp in his other three trips to the hill, working six innings and allowing three earned runs or less in each of those starts. Montas had major command issues in the early stages of his career but had sorted those problems out prior to a down 2020 campaign that saw him issue 3.9 walks per nine innings. He's bounced back strong in that department this season, dropping that walk rate to 2.6 per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .286 off of him and he's recorded a 5.3% home run percentage but I expect some positive regression to the mean in those departments moving forward, noting again two ugly starts have spoiled his overall numbers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring contests to open this series but I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. Dylan Bundy has gotten off to a terrific start for the Angels this season, picking up right where he left off last year when he finished ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Bundy has recorded an incredible 30.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. After holding opposing hitters to a collective .208 batting average last season he has posted a .221 opponents' batting average this year. Justus Sheffield will counter for Seattle. His numbers aren't nearly as positive as Bundy's but I'm willing to take a flyer on him in a key bounce-back spot here. Note that Sheffield continues to induce ground balls at a solid rate, with a career ground ball percentage of 50.3% - over 7% higher than the MLB average. He has improved on his walk rate in each of the last two seasons, bringing it down to 3.3 walks per nine innings so far this season (the MLB average is 3.8). The Angels are coming off a big night at the dish last night but have generally been quiet, scoring four runs or less in nine of their last 11 games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Orioles bats finally woke up and disposed of the A's 8-4 in yesterday's contest, their second straight victory to open the series. I expect to see plenty of offense on Sunday as well as the A's look to punch back against Bruce Zimmermann. We're starting to get a better picture of what to expect from Zimmermann at the big league level after he pitched just seven innings in 2020. Here in 2021 he has worked 25 1/3 innings with opposing hitters batting a collective .320 against him. He has recorded a 44.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB averages. Zimmermann isn't missing many bats with a 16.2% strikeout percentage not to mention a 30.6% line drive percentage. While the A's have been slumping offensively I do think they can break out against the O's left-hander today. Sean Manaea will get the nod for Oakland. He got off to a rocky start this season but has settled down over his last couple of starts. While he has recorded a stellar 35.4% hard-hit ball percentage so far this season, he has feasted on slumping lineups including Detroit, Minnesota and Tampa Bay in his last three starts. The O's certainly showed signs of busting out with an eight-run performance yesterday (every player in their lineup recorded a hit). Noting that Manaea owns a career hard-hit ball percentage nearly 5% higher than the MLB average, including a 45.2% mark last season, I believe some regression is in order in coming starts. The 'under' is 3-2 in this matchup so far this season but the 'over' has still cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in the series. The 'over' is also 9-7 in all A's home games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Washington at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a pitcher's duel but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'over' as I feel the total will prove too low. Trevor Rogers had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. However, a closer look does provide some reason for concern. Note that Rogers has recorded a 45.8% hard-hit ball percentage and an inflated 30.5% fly ball percentage - more than 8% higher than the MLB average. He's still managed to keep the ball in the park for the most part, posting a 0.8% home run percentage but some regression to the mean should be in order after he recorded a 3.9% home run percentage last season. Max Scherzer is once again mowing them down with a 32.8% strikeout percentage but like Rogers, he has also struggled to keep the ball on the ground, recording a 22.5% ground ball percentage and 39.4% fly ball percentage through his first 30 innings of work this season. With Rogers having posted a .188 opponents batting average and Scherzer checking in at .204 I believe some regression is in order. On a fine day at the ballpark on Sunday afternoon, I'm anticipating some runs. Take the over (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 14-6 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs have scored 12 runs in the first two games in this series with last night's game creeping 'over' the total by a single run. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Rockies send Austin Gomber to the hill against Zac Gallen. Gomber was a big piece coming back to the Rockies in the Nolan Arenado trade and while his overall numbers with his new club aren't great (an ERA north of six and a 1.57 WHIP) there's reason to believe he can get on track. Command has been an issue as Gomber has recorded an inflated 18.5% walk percentage but he's held opposing hitters to a collective .207 batting average (after posing a .190 opponents batting average in limited work with the Cardinals last season) and has done a solid job of keeping hitters off balance, recording a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage. His fly ball percentage is higher than we would like at 32.8% but again, there's reason to believe he can get that in order noting that his career fly ball percentage sits at 22.9%, slightly better than the MLB average. Here, he'll face a D'Backs lineup that has been held to five runs or less in five of its last seven games. Zac Gallen is a star in the making for the D'Backs. He's off to a tremendous start here in 2021, posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .138 against him and while he's posted a slightly above-average fly ball percentage, he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park with a 1.5% home run percentage. The Rockies have scored three runs or less in four of the first five games on their current road trip. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Indians and White Sox square off in the second game of their weekend series on Saturday afternoon in Chicago. Triston McKenzie will get the start for the Indians. While he has held opposing hitters to a collective .220 batting average in 16 2/3 innings of work this season, he hasn't pitched well by any stretch. Note that he has recorded a 54.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 94.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. McKenzie has posted a ridiculously low 10.8% ground ball percentage and 40.5% line drive percentage so it should only be a matter of time before that opponents' batting average starts creeping up. The White Sox will welcome the opportunity to face someone other than Tribe ace Shane Bieber here, noting that they've scored at least eight runs in four of their last eight games overall. Lance Lynn will get the start for Chicago. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I am high on Lynn. With that being said, there is some reason for concern here. Note that Lynn has recorded a 41.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both north of the MLB average - while also posting a 29.2% fly ball percentage - nearly six percent higher than the MLB average. Lynn's strikeouts are way up and his walks are way down but we're talking about a very small sample size through just three starts (I realize that goes for all stats mentioned here). We have seen the Indians offense come to life a little bit lately, scoring five runs or more in four of their last five games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams are scoring runs with much consistency right now and I don't expect that to change on Friday night in Oakland. Baltimore will hand the ball to former All-Star and A.L. Rookie of the Year runner-up (in 2019) John Means. He's shaken off a rough spring by getting off to a terrific start during the regular season, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through five starts, covering a span of 30 innings. While Means 27.6% fly ball percentage is somewhat concerning it shouldn't really cost him here in the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum. After holding opposing hitters to a .220 batting average last season, Means has been even better here in 2021, posting a .171 opponents BA. Here, he faces an A's lineup that has once again gone cold, plating three runs or less in five straight games and traveling back across the country after wrapping up a series in St. Petersburg yesterday afternoon. Mike Fiers returns to the A's rotation on Friday, despite initial reports that he would pitch out of the bullpen. While it's difficult to predict exactly what we'll get from Fiers here, he's a veteran competitor who's coming off a somewhat disappointing 2020 campaign and I think he wants the ball and wants to show the A's he's still well-deserving of his place in the rotation. It's not as if Fiers was awful last season. His ERA approached five but he still recorded a terrific 33.7% hard-hit ball percentage. He's never been a ground ball pitcher, but again that serves him just fine making the majority of his starts in Oakland. Fiers will face an Orioles club that has scored four runs or less in four straight and seven of its last eight games overall. Take the under (9*). |
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04-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams in the opener of this series last night - the fourth consecutive 'under' result for the Red Sox and the third in a row for the Rangers. I expect a reversal of sorts here as Boston sends Nate Eovaldi to the hill against Koehi Arihara. Eovaldi started his career by doing a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he hasn't allowed a single home run. I don't think that trend is sustainable, however, noting that he has recorded a home run percentage of over 4.0% in three of his last four seasons (he missed 2017 due to injury). With that being said, Eovaldi has been solid pretty much across the board this season but he still owns a career .268 opponents batting average and the Rangers bats have been waking up a little bit lately, plating 23 runs in their last five games. I'm willing to take a flyer in the Texas bats against the veteran right-hander here. Kohei Arihara is not off to a great MLB start, having recorded an ugly 53.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats with opponents hitting a collective .268 against him this season. The Red Sox are slumping a bit at the dish right now but this looks like a high-potential for a breakout spot after getting stymied by Kyle Gibson and his ground ball-inducing exploits last night (as I pointed out in my analysis supporting my play on the Rangers +1.5 runs in that game). Arihara has yet to make it through six innings in a start this season so look for the Red Sox to take a confident approach to the plate tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. With the Cubs coming off a high-scoring series in Atlanta perhaps it's no surprise that we're dealing with a relatively high posted total in the opener of this series in Cincinnati. Jake Arrieta will get the nod for the Cubs on Friday. He catches the Reds returning home following a six-game trip that took them to St. Louis and Los Angeles. Cincinnati didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball on that trip, plating a grand total of 17 runs. Arrieta's strikeout rate is up and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .214 batting average through 28 innings of work this season. His fly ball percentage leaves a lot to be desired but I'm confident he can get that on track, noting that he's been a solid ground ball pitcher over the course of his career with a 48.5% ground ball percentage, 4.5% higher than the MLB average. Even though he struggled last season, he still managed to post a terrific 51.8% ground ball percentage. Wade Miley continues to impress for the Reds. He's done a tremendous job of keeping opposing hitters off balance this season, recording a 26.2% hard-hit ball percentage and an 81.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. It doesn't get much better than that in those two departments. Not surprisingly, he has also recorded a 55.4% ground ball percentage while holding opposing hitters to a collective .173 batting average. The Cubs bats were hot last night in Atlanta but I'm confident Miley can keep them at bay here (after struggling mightily in his lone start against them - at Wrigley Field mind you - last year). Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Yankees extra inning loss to the Orioles but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as they return home to host the Tigers on Friday. With the 'under' having cashed in four straight and nine of the Yankees last 11 games overall it's only a matter of time before we see their totals start going the other way and shaded a little too low. I believe that's precisely the situation on Friday. Tarik Skubal will get the start for the Tigers. He had a fine spring but hasn't been able to carry it over into the regular season, posting an ERA north of five and a 1.58 WHIP. Skubal could be in trouble against the homer-happy Yankees here, noting that he has recorded a poor 20.7% ground ball percentage and 41.4% fly ball percentage in 19 innings pitched this season. He now owns a career 6.3% home run percentage - nearly twice the MLB average (albeit with a small sample size of 51 career innings pitched). Gerrit Cole is not surprisingly off to a terrific start for the Yankees. He should have his way with the Tigers but it's worth noting that Cole has recorded a 46.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 92.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also posting a 32.3% fly ball percentage - all considerably higher than the MLB average. He has a 0.8% home run percentage so far this season but we should see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Cole's seven career starts against the Pirates but each of his last three outings against them have totaled at least nine runs. Take the over (10*). |
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04-29-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The A's bats have gone cold once again which makes this an opportune time for the Rays to bring up highly-touted left-handed pitching prospect Shane McClanahan for his first big league start. Of course, this won't be McClanahan's first MLB appearance as he got a taste of postseason action last October, making three appearances in the ALDS and World Series. All indications are that McClanahan is ready to make the permanent leap and could actually be fighting for a potential rotation spot should Ryan Yarbrough and Rich Hill continue to struggle. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt despite his uneven start to the season. Bassitt finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and will earn just shy of $5M pitching for the A's this season. After a rocky start, he's settled down, recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball, line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages. He's always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he's posted a stellar 1.6% home run percentage. Command has been a bit of an issue in the early going but it should only be a matter of time before he works that out, noting that he owns a career walk percentage right around the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series, thanks in large part to the absence of the Orioles bats, with the 'under' cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to continue this afternoon as we work with another inflated total. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .190 batting average so far this season while recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball and ground ball percentages. The former A.L. Rookie of the Year Award contender (he finished sixth in voting in 2017) should make quick work of the O's slumping bats this afternoon. Meanwhile, O's starter Jorge Lopez owns an ugly 8.15 ERA and 1.42 WHIP so far this season but it's not all doom and gloom. Lopez has actually recorded a respectable 36.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 48.1% ground ball percentage. He's been bitten by the home run ball, which has pretty much been par for the course over his big league career, but he has also held opposing hitters to a reasonable .257 batting average. Perhaps he catches a break here with the Yanks fat and happy off consecutive blowout wins on getaway day. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring contests to open this series and we've gone 1-1 backing the 'over' on Monday before missing with the Giants last night. Here, I'll back the 'under' as we should see a well-pitched game between two left-handed starters. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's been terrific in the early going this season, recording a 38.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Marquez has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's been terrific in that regard early this season, recording a 60.8% ground ball percentage - 17.3% higher than the MLB average. His walk percentage is up by I would anticipate some improvement in that department given he owns a career 6.7% walk percentage - 1.8% lower than the MLB average. Alex Wood will continue his comeback for the Giants. He's pitching for his third team in as many seasons after getting in limited work over the last two years. Like Marquez, he's been effective in the early going this season, recording a 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.6 mph exit velocity. Also like Marquez, he's inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate having recorded a 60.7% ground ball percentage. There's reason to believe he can keep it up as he owns a career ground ball percentage 4.4% higher than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Reds took a second straight game in the series by a 6-5 score. Clayton Kershaw will be tasked with being the stopper for the Dodgers on Wednesday as they look to end a three-game losing streak. After a miserable spring, Kershaw has taken no time at all to round back into form during the regular season, posting a 2.56 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 31 2/3 innings of work. While he's not the dominant pitcher he once was, he is coming off a 2020 campaign that saw him finish ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and play a big role in the Dodgers World Series championship. Here this season he's back to inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 15.7% line drive percentage. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .218 batting average while recording a terrific 3.2% walk percentage and a 2.4% home run percentage. The Reds will give the nod to Sonny Gray for his third start of the campaign. He missed time in the spring due to injury and is clearly still trying to round into form. I expect that to happen sooner rather than later and note that he has recorded an excellent 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 29.3% strikeout percentage through limited work (8.0 innings pitched) so far this season. Walks have been an issue, just as they always have, but we can certainly anticipate some positive regression to the mean when it comes to his 12.2% walk percentage. Note that despite the 'over' cashing in the first two games in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 29-13 in the Reds last 42 games when priced as a road underdog between +125 and +175, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been a long time coming but White Sox ace Lucas Giolito will finally get his opportunity to bounce back from a miserable performance in his last start in Boston eight days ago as he draws a favorable matchup against a weak Tigers lineup. Despite that ugly outing against the Red Sox on Patriots Day, Giolito still owns tremendous numbers across the board this season. He's kept opposing hitters off balance to the tune of a 34.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His strikeout percentage sits at 32.1% and while you would assume some regression would be coming in that department, keep in mind he has posted a strikeout percentage north of 30% in each of the last two seasons. Opponents are hitting just .230 against Giolito this season, which is pretty much par for the course in terms of his career numbers as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .222 batting average since breaking into the bigs in 2016. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 in Giolito's last 42 starts against division opponents. Jose Urena will counter for Detroit. He had a strong spring with his new club and while things haven't gone superbly through four regular season starts, he has been serviceable at least. I like the fact that Urena is inducing ground balls at a good clip, having posted a 50.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 12.9% fly ball percentage. While he needs to get his walks down, he has improved considerably on his strikeout rate. Going back to last season with the Marlins, opposing hitters have posted a collective batting average right around .240 against him, which is considerably better than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams in last night's series opener as the Astros cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'over' is 28-14 in the Mariners last 42 games as a road underdog priced between +150 and +200 with those games totaling well over 10 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at a 17-6 clip in the Mariners last 23 night games played on the road. The Astros have now scored at least five runs in four of their last five games and should be able to keep it going against Mariners starter Marco Gonzales on Tuesday. Opponents are seeing the ball well against the Mariners supposed ace, as he's recorded a 42.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. His 6.3% home run percentage and 8.3 walk percentage spells trouble against an Astros lineup that can mash here at home. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. His 36.4% strikeout percentage isn't sustainable in my opinion as he comes off a fantastic performance last time out. I do think it's only a matter of time before his 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 26.7% ground ball percentage/40.0% fly ball percentage catches up with him, especially pitching here in Houston. After recording an ugly 5.1% home run percentage in 54 1/3 innings of work last season he's yet to allow a home run here in 2021. Expect that to change on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Yankees send Corey Kluber to the hill against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Kluber is clearly on the downside of what has been a tremendous career. He's posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.93 WHIP through four starts. Most concerning is his 30.4% fly ball percentage and 4.1% home run percentage, especially as he prepares to pitch at hitter-friendly Camden Yards on Tuesday. Kluber's command just hasn't been there since the start of the 2019 season, due to injuries and otherwise. He checks in with an ugly walk percentage north of 15% through four starts this season. Zimmermann has been average at best as a back-end of the rotation starter for the Orioles. Like Kluber he has also posted a worse than MLB average fly ball percentage at 23.5% while inducing ground balls at a poor rate (38.2% ground ball percentage this season). His career home run percentage sits at 5.0% compared to the MLB average of 3.4%. Again, not a good sign as he faces a homer-happy Yankees lineup at Camden Yards. Over the course of Zimmermann's brief big league career, opposing hitters own a collective .269 batting average and .481 slugging percentage against him. Note that the 'over' is 43-26 in the Yankees last 69 division games away from home and 45-29 in the Orioles last 74 games as a home underdog priced +125 or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Royals v. Pirates OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Royals didn't need a lot of offense to sweep the light-hitting Tigers over the last four days but I look for their offense to come to life in Tuesday's Interleague series-opener in Pittsburgh. Jakob Junis gets the start for Kansas City. While he owns a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP it's probably only a matter of time before we see those numbers inflate considering he has recorded a 52.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. To put it simply, Junis isn't fooling opposing hitters in the early going this season. While his strikeout rate is up, so is his walk rate. Opponents are hitting a collective .230 against him but we can anticipate some regression in that department as he owns a worse than MLB average career opponents' batting average of .271. Tyler Anderson makes his fifth start of the season for the Pirates. As we've noted before, Anderson is pitching for his third club in as many seasons. He's not an awful pitcher by any means but certainly can be taken advantage of by what I would consider an above average Royals lineup. Note that Anderson owns worse than MLB average career numbers in terms of opponents batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage and that has held true in the early going this season. He hasn't induced ground balls at better than a 38.9% ground ball percentage since back in 2017 (the MLB average is 43.5%). Expect plenty of offense at PNC Park on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's series-opener between these two teams found it's way 'over' the total thanks to a walk-off two-run home run from the Indians in extra innings. That's quite simply a risk that has to be factored in these days in MLB (we lost in a similar situation with the Reds hitting a two-run home run in extras against the Dodgers last night, spoiling our 'under' bet). Here, I'm anticipating another well-pitched game. Kenta Maeda has gotten off to a surprisingly horrible start to the season after a terrific spring. The numbers aren't pretty but I'm confident in Maeda's ability to bounce back, noting that he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and also finished third in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting as a member of the Dodgers back in 2016. There is some reason for encouragement as Maeda has recorded a better than MLB average walk percentage at 5.7% so far this season. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .354 against him but we're bound to see some regression as he owns a career .225 opponents' batting average. He should benefit from facing a relatively light-hitting Indians lineup on Tuesday. Aaron Civale will counter for the Indians. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I've been high on him all season. With that being said, he couldn't make an early 3-0 lead stand up in his most recent start against the Yankees. Here, I look for a positive response from Civale, noting that he has recorded a 33.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a better than MLB average 44.6% ground ball percentage. Civale's walks are up but so are his strikeouts (slightly) and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .161 batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Cincinnati got off to a strong start offensively this season but has fallen into a deep slump during a seven-game slide, scoring four runs or less in five of those games. On a positive note, Reds starter Tyler Mahle has seemingly been getting better with each passing year and through four starts here in 2021 has put it all together for a tremendous start to the campaign. Mahle has recorded a 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. After opposing batters hit a collective .198 against him in 47 2/3 innings last season, they're hitting a paltry .130 against him this season. While Mahle's command has been a bit of an issue with an 11.3% walk percentage, he has made up for it by posting an incredible 38.8% strikeout percentage. While some regression is certainly in order in that last department, he does catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot here off an emotional series against the Padres following a wild 8-7 extra innings loss last night in which they blew a late 7-1 lead. Julio Urias will be asked to get the Dodgers back on track on Monday and he would appear to be the right one to do it. Urias had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through four starts. He's not doing it with smoke and mirrors either, as he's recorded an incredible 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's improved on both his strikeout and walk percentages, albeit with a relatively small sample size, and has held opposing hitters to a collective .211 batting average. For his career, opponents are hitting just .232 against him, nearly 20 points lower than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The 'under' in San Francisco probably looks like a pretty safe place to put your money at the start of a new week, after all the Giants have posted a 2-7-1 o/u mark at home this season and we already saw a three-game series between these two teams here in San Fran deliver three consecutive 'under' results earlier this season. I'm going to go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we have a very average pitching matchup with Austin Gomber against Anthony DeSclafani and with both teams getting their second look of the season against those starters. Gomber continues to struggle with his command at the big league level, recording an inflated 17.2% walk percentage in the early going this season, moving his career percentage to 11.5% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance with a 30.8% hard-hit ball percentage but I'm concerned about his 38.5% fly ball percentage and we're bound to see some regression to the mean when it comes to his .143 opponents batting average so far this season. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has been hit hard to the tune of a 48.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's never been what you would call a ground ball pitcher but so far this season has recorded a ground ball percentage north of 58%. He's been a little less effective with each passing start, however, and I look for him to face a significant challenge against a Rockies club that has been surprisingly tough at the plate lately, scoring five runs or more in five straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Monday. It's been a case of 'feast or famine' with both of these offenses in the early going this season and I'm expecting runs to come at a premium in Monday night's series-opener in Atlanta. Cubs starter Zach Davies is off to a rough start with his new club which is somewhat surprising after he looked dominant at times in the spring. He labored through his first outing against Atlanta this season, allowing four earned runs on seven hits over four innings. Note that despite Davies' poor performance that game still stayed 'under' the total. Davies' three career starts against Atlanta have all stayed 'under'. There are positives for Davies to draw on here as he has posted a better than MLB average line drive percentage at 22.8% and a respectable 22.8% fly ball percentage. Davies hasn't been a true ground ball pitcher since the early part of his career but his ground ball percentage falls right around the MLB average this season. He catches a break here with the Braves still having a tough time stacking strong performances at the plate, scoring five runs or less in seven of their last eight games. Like Davies, Braves starter Charlie Morton also had a terrific spring and he's off to a fine start to the regular season as well, although there is still room for improvement. Morton is a true ground ball pitcher and has recorded a 48.3% ground ball percentage and 15.5% fly ball percentage through four starts. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .235 batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series save for last night's 'over' result, and I'm anticipating another well-pitched game in Sunday's series finale. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for the Padres. He of course grabbed headlines a couple of weeks ago by throwing the first no-hitter of the season. While he suffered a bit of a letdown in his next start against his former team, the Pirates, he has bounced right back since and checks in sporting some terrific numbers through four starts this season. Musgrove has done a terrific job of keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing ground balls, recording a 51.9% ground ball percentage and 17.3% fly ball percentage this season. While we're bound to see some regression to the mean at some point as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .124 batting average, I will point out that Musgrove does own better than MLB average career numbers in terms of home run, strikeout and walk percentage. Here, he faces a Dodgers club that has scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games, topping out at five over that stretch (in last night's game). Dustin May will counter for Los Angeles. Remember, he finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season but for now is overshadowed by Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler in the Dodgers stacked rotation. May is off to a fine start here in 2021. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opponents to a collective .217 batting average. While he has posted a worse-than-average hard-hit-ball percentage of 42.1%, I'm not overly concerned as he's inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 50.8% ground ball percentage and 15.8% fly ball percentage. The Padres scratched together six runs in Friday's victory but have been held to four runs or less in five of their last six games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Hitters should welcome the opportunity to tee off on Jameson Taillon and Triston McKenzie this afternoon after getting manhandled by Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber in last night's 2-1 Yankees victory. Taillon has had a rather uneven career to this point and he's off to a rough start with the Yankees, having posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through his first three starts. The advanced stats point to a struggling pitcher as Taillon has recorded a 47.4% hard-hit ball percentage and a 92.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His ground ball percentage of 35.9% stands nearly 8% worse than the MLB average. Not surprisingly, opposing hitters are batting a collective .283 against him and he's posted a 5.3% home run percentage - 2% higher than the MLB average. Triston McKenzie hasn't been much better for the Indians. He has recorded an ugly 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a blistering 92.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 7.7% ground ball percentage is among the worst in baseball. Considering his 38.5% fly ball percentage, it's only a matter of time before his already worse than average 3.7% home run percentage inflates. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point but I think we're set up for a slugfest on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Rangers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the White Sox slugged their way to a 9-7 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Rangers. After struggling through the last two seasons, Gibson turned in a fine spring and that has carried over into the regular season as he's posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first four starts. He's not getting it done with smoke and mirrors either. Gibson has kept opposing hitters off balance to the tune of a 29.0 hard-hit ball percentage and an 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's also done a terrific job of keeping the ball on the ground, recording a 50.0% ground ball percentage and 16.1% fly ball percentage. While some regression to the mean will certainly come at some point, Gibson has yet to allow a home run this season. White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel hasn't gotten off to as impressive of a start as Gibson this season but a deeper look into his advanced stats provide reason for encouragement. Note that Keuchel quietly finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 17th in A.L. MVP voting last season. Through four regular season starts this year, spanning 19 innings, Keuchel has recorded a 37.7% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. More impressive is his 56.5% ground ball percentage. His strikeouts are down and his walks and home runs allowed are up, but again, his other advanced stats would lend to the thinking that some positive regression should be in order. Note that Texas is hitting just .226 against left-handed starters this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Reds have now dropped five games in a row following last night's 5-4 setback in the opener of this series. The 'over' has cashed in all four meetings in this series this season but I look for a reversal of sorts on Saturday afternoon. Wade Miley gets the nod for the Reds. He's been terrific in the early going this season, recording a 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and a 83.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also doing a terrific job of inducing ground balls, posting a 57.1% ground ball percentage, more than 13% higher than the MLB average. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. John Gant will counter for the Cardinals. In his sixth big league season, all with the Cards, Gant has a lot to prove. He hasn't gotten off to a great start, largely due to command issues. I do think he can figure it out, and should benefit from facing a slumping Reds club that has scored five runs or less in five of its last six games. Note that for his career, Gant has held opposing hitters to a collective .232 batting average and has always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, with a career 2.1% home run percentage, 1.2% lower than the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 48-26 with the Reds check in as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs in the opener of this series last night and I expect more of the same on Friday. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He's been a steadying presence in the Marlins rotation, in his fourth season with the team. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star two years ago as he posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP but only managed to go 6-14 pitching for what was a bad Marlins team. Alcantara has improved on his strikeout numbers and walk totals in each of the last two seasons and is off to a fine start here in 2021. Note that Alcantara has held opposing hitters to a collective .233 batting average over the course of his career, markedly better than the MLB average of .250. While his hard-hit ball percentage is higher than we would like at 43.5% this season, he's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.8% ground ball percentage and 17.7% line drive percentage. Alcantara has always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, recording a career 2.6% home run percentage. Alex Wood gets the nod for the Giants. He's pitching for his third team in the last two seasons, including two stints with the Dodgers. I see Wood as a pitcher that has been solid throughout his career, even reaching the All-Star Game and finishing ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting back in 2017, but has a lot to prove right now as he earns just $3M with the Giants this season - his lowest salary since back in 2017. Wood was certainly effective in his first start this season, tossing five shutout innings of three-hit ball while striking out four with no walks. He did a great job of tying up opposing hitters in that one, recording a 23.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 81.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He also posted a 61.5% ground ball percentage in that contest. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MLB National League Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The D'Backs are coming off an offensive explosion against the Reds yesterday and I'm confident we'll see them do plenty of damage at the plate again on Friday night in Atlanta. The question is whether they'll be able to keep pace with the Braves, who are in good position for a bounce-back performance offensively against Luke Weaver of the D'Backs. Weaver had an awful spring and he's struggled in the early going in the regular season as well. In 16 2/3 innings of work, Weaver has recorded a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 93.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. He's never been much of a ground ball pitcher and that has held true so far this season as he's posted a 30.0% ground ball percentage (compared to the 43.5% MLB average). While Weaver's walks are down, his home runs allowed are up significantly as he's been tagged for an average of around one every four innings so far this season. The Braves got off to a slow start at the plate this season and were held down in a well-pitched series against the Yankees in New York earlier this week, but do check in having scored at least five runs in eight of their last 12 games overall. Huascar Ynoa will take the ball for Atlanta. Like Weaver, he had an awful spring and has been hit hard in the early stages of the regular season as well. Ynoa has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. While his strikeouts are up considerably and his walks are way down compared to last year, we're dealing with such a small sample size that some regression to the mean is almost certainly in order. While not much was expected from the D'Backs this season, they've been on quite a tear offensively, scoring five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 in the Braves last 13 games as a home favorite priced -150 or higher with those games averaging 12.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Mariners +1.5 in last night's outright win in extra innings. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as I feel this total will simply prove too high. Keep in mind, while last night's series-opener managed to get 'over' the total that was only thanks to extra innings. Neither of these teams have been tearing the cover off the ball over the last few games and I look for more of the same on Friday. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for the Mariners. Throw out a poor rookie campaign in 2019 and Kikuchi actually owns better than average numbers in most key advanced stat categories we like to look at. That includes strikeout percentage and home run percentage over the last two seasons, with Kikuchi holding opposing hitters to a collective .237 batting average. While Kikuchi has predominantly been a ground ball pitcher that hasn't really held true in the early going this season, but we're talking about a small sample size. Veteran Martin Perez will counter for Boston. He's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball in recent years but there is reason for encouragement in the early going this season. Perez has done a terrific job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 29.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats in 13 2/3 innings of work this season. Like Kikuchi, he has generally been a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career, but has yet to really settle in here in 2021. We have, however, seen him improve on his home run, strikeout and walk percentages compared to last season, albeit with a small sample size. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians plated three runs in the first inning of last night's game before their bats went silent the rest of the way in a 6-3 loss. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night as the Yankees send Jordan Montgomery to the hill against Logan Allen. Montgomery hasn't pitched a full season at the big league level since finishing sixth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting in his rookie campaign back in 2017. However, he has put together a pretty solid resume when he has managed to get out there. For his career, Montgomery has been better than the MLB average in terms of opponents batting average, walk percentage, hard-hit ball percentage, opponents' exit velocity off the bat and line drive percentage - many of the key advanced stat categories we like to look at. So far this season he has recorded a terrific 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also improving on his career strikeout and walk percentages. He should benefit from facing an Indians lineup that just hasn't been able to score with much consistency in the early going. Logan Allen will counter for Cleveland. Since being cast aside by the Padres in 2019, Allen has been serviceable for the Indians. Like Montgomery, he's off to a fine start in 2021, having recorded a 31.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity while doing a tremendous job of inducing ground balls with a 57.1% ground ball percentage. Allen has generally done a good job of keeping the ball in the park and this year has been no different as he's given up just one home run in 12 innings of work. That's obviously a key against the slugging Yankees here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We played the 'under' in this same pitching matchup last week and we weren't close as that game sailed over the total with the Dodgers eventually winning in extra innings. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the scene shifts to Los Angeles on Thursday night. The Padres aren't hitting right now. They had the bases loaded with no one out with a chance to possibly tie or take the lead in the ninth inning against the Brewers yesterday and couldn't even cash in a single run. Here, they'll face one of the best pitchers in baseball in Walker Buehler. Buehler is still working out the early season kinks but his command is there having posted a terrific 1.4% walk percentage through 18 innings of work - a considerable improvement, albeit with a small sample size, over his career average. Buehler is also inducing ground balls at a good clip, having recorded a 42.1% ground ball percentage. Note that the 'under' is 18-5 in Buehler's last 23 night starts here at Dodger Stadium with those games totaling an average of just 6.8 runs. Rookie Ryan Weathers will make his second big league start, with both coming against the Dodgers. He held his own through 3 2/3 shutout innings against them last week, allowing just one hit and striking out three while walking two. Note that the Dodgers are hitting just .195 against left-handed starting pitching in the early going this season. Through 9 2/3 big league innings, Weathers has been largely effective, limiting opponents to a .100 batting average while recording a 45.0% ground ball percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Cubs slugged their way to a 16-4 victory. Here, I look for a return to 'normal' as New York sends Joey Lucchesi to the mound against Trevor Williams. Neither starter's numbers will jump off the page but I'm anticipating a reasonably well-pitched game at Wrigley Field on Thursday. Lucchesi was cut loose by the Padres following 2+ very average seasons. We don't have a lot to go on here this season as Lucchesi has made just two appearances, spanning only five innings of work. With that being said, he has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 35.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Keep in mind, Lucchesi had a terrific spring, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings of work. Perhaps a change of scenery will be a positive for the right-hander. Trevor Williams is another starter changing places this season, moving to Chicago after five seasons with the Pirates. His early returns this year have been mixed but I am encouraged by his 54.5% ground ball percentage and miniscule 6.8% fly ball percentage. His walks are up, but so are his strikeouts (slightly). Like Lucchesi, he's also done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 38.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Williams should benefit from facing a Mets club that has scored four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as the Brewers send the second of their two-headed top of the rotation monster to the hill in Corbin Burnes against Chris Paddack of the Padres. Burnes finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and after a lights out spring, he's been even better through his first three regular season starts, posting a miniscule 0.49 ERA and 0.22 WHIP. The advanced stats are arguably even better for Burnes as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .067 batting average to go along with a 48.4% strikeout percentage and 1.6% home run percentage. He has yet to issue a walk in 18 1/3 innings of work. Needless to say, Burnes has kept opposing hitters off balance, recording a 26.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 56.7% ground ball percentage. It's hard to say how much run support Burnes will receive here, however, as the Brewers are still without two of their best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They'll be facing Padres starter Chris Paddack who had a miserable spring but has seemingly turned it around quickly here in the regular season. While Paddack's strikeouts are down and his walks are up, he's yet to allow a home run and has recorded a 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.5% ground ball percentage and an 18.6% fly ball percentage. As I mentioned, the Brewers are undermanned offensively right now so Paddack won't have to be perfect on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The opener of this series between the Blue Jays and Red Sox features two underrated starting pitchers, albeit in different ways. Hyun-Jin Ryu will take the ball for Toronto. He's a bonafide ace but I'm not sure he gets the respect he deserves as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. The Blue Jays are paying him $20M per season for a reason and he's off to another fine start here in 2021. Remember, Ryu finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 19th in N.L. MVP voting two years ago and then finished third in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 13th in A.L. MVP voting last season. While we're talking about a very small sample size, Ryu is trending toward a career-best in terms of exit velocity off opposing bats, line drive percentage and ground ball percentage. For his career, Ryu is better than the MLB averages in virtually all of the key advanced stats we like to look at it, considerably so when it comes to many. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. Just two years ago, he finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Rodriguez is off to a fine start here in 2021, recording a 30.0% strikeout percentage and 2.5% walk percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. He has also posted a terrific 29.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.5 mpg exit velocity off opposing bats. The Red Sox exploded for 11 runs in yesterday's win over the White Sox but prior to that had been held to four runs or less in five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have scored five runs or less in five straight games and a grand total of two runs in their last two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We have an excellent pitching matchup to open this series on Monday night in San Diego with the Brewers handing the ball to their ace Brandon Woodruff against Joe Musgrove of the Padres. We've been singing Woodruff's praises in the early going this season, cashing with the 'under' in his outing against the Cubs in Chicago two starts back and with the Brewers in a blowout win over those same Cubs last week. Woodruff owns sparkling numbers across the board but that's really nothing new as he's done nothing but impress since breaking into the big leagues in 2017. Woodruff held opposing hitters to a collective .204 batting average in 73 2/3 innings of work last season and has limited opponents to an even better .169 batting average this season. While his hard-hit ball percentage has crept up a bit in the early going this season, he's still inducing ground balls at a greater rate than the MLB average while he's also been considerably better than the average in strikeout percentage, walk percentage and home run percentage (in fact, he's yet to allow a single home run this season). Note that the 'under' is 11-1 in Woodruff's last 12 starts under the lights with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. Joe Musgrove will counter for San Diego. He of course is just two starts removed from a no-hitter against the Rangers. While he not surprisingly regressed in his next outing he still owns terrific overall numbers this season. Musgrove has held opposing hitters to a ridiculously low .109 batting average and .154 babip. While we can certainly anticipate some regression in those departments moving forward, he does draw another favorable matchup against a Brewers lineup that is missing key cogs including Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Musgrove recorded a stellar 33.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats last season and he's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, recording a 35.9% hard-hit ball percentage. He's also posted a terrific 57.5% ground ball percentage - well north of the MLB average - building off his success in that department last season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. When we last saw the Angels they were busting out of a two-game slide, scoring 10 runs in a rout of the Twins on Friday night. Covid protocols derailed the rest of that series, however, but they return to the field to host the division-rival Rangers on Monday night. Texas has seen the 'under' cash in its last two games and will send Kohei Arihara to the mound on Monday. He had a fine spring and has held up well through three regular season starts as well, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Arihara isn't going to miss many bats, with a 12.3% strikeout percentage so far but he also won't hand out a lot of free passes, recording a miniscule 1.8% walk percentage in his first 14 2/3 big league innings. Opponents have hit .255 against Arihara but he's allowed just a single home run to date. We're higher on Angels starter Dylan Bundy than most. He quietly got his career back on track with a solid 2020 campaign, his first with the Angels, that saw him finish ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, limiting opposing hitters to a .211 batting average while posting above-average numbers in both strikeout percentage and walk percentage. Bundy has also been better than the MLB average in both hard-hit ball percentage (32.0%), exit velocity off opposing bats (87.0 mph) and line drive percentage (18.0%). Now he faces a Rangers lineup that is hitting just .212 against right-handed starters this season. Note that the 'under' has gone 49-26 with an average total of just 8.2 runs when Texas plays with the total set at 9.0 or 9.5 over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | White Sox v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. I can't help but think White Sox starter Lucas Giolito is thinking Cy Young or bust this season after finishing top-seven in award voting in each of the last two seasons. He's off to a tremendous start through three outings this season with his strikeout percentage up and his walk percentage and home run percentage down compared to a still-stellar 2020 campaign. Opponents hit just .184 against him last season and they're batting a paltry .143 against him this season. We've also seen Giolito record a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage, well south of the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 in Giolito's last 20 starts with the moneyline price set between +125 and -125 as is likely to be the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 6.7 runs. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He's an underrated big league starter in my opinion and is certainly off to a solid start this season. Eovaldi has recorded a very impressive 31.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 63.8% ground ball percentage ranks near the top of the majors. While his walks are up through three starts, that doesn't mean a whole lot when you consider he posted a stellar 3.5% walk percentage in 2020. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a high-scoring affair in the opener of this series on Friday night before things settled down considerably in last night's 1-0 Astros victory (we won with the 'under' in that game). I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday afternoon as the Astros send Jake Odorizzi to the hill against Nick Margevicius. Odorizzi was of course a big offseason acquisition for the Astros as they're paying him $9M to be a big part of their rotation this season. He's off to a slow start but we can anticipate some positive regression to the mean moving forward given some of the gawdy advanced stats he has posted. Odorizzi has recorded a 61.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 15.4% ground ball percentage and a 38.5% fly ball percentage, all far worse than the MLB average. Note that the Mariners entered last night's game hitting just .243 against right-handed starters and certainly didn't help their cause in that department against Zack Greinke. Nick Margevicius was serviceable for the Mariners last season, his first with the club after starting his career with the Padres. Like Odorizzi, he's off to a bit of a tough start here in 2021 but should benefit from facing a depleted Astros lineup missing the likes of Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. It is encouraging to see that Margevicius' strikeouts are up while his walks are down compared to last year, even if we are talking about a small sample size. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The A's have had their way with the Tigers in this series and while that should continue on Sunday afternoon, I believe there's value backing the 'under' as Detroit starter Matt Boyd is deserving of respect in the midst of a strong start to the season. Boyd's offseason work was well-publicized entering the 2021 campaign and so far all of that work has paid dividends as he's been terrific through three starts, posting solid numbers across the board in the majority of the key advanced stat categories we look at. Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Boyd's walks are down while he's recorded a stellar 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph opponents exit velocity, not to mention a 19.0% fly ball percentage. If you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I've been higher than most on A's starter Chris Bassitt, who is admittedly off to a slow start to the season after finishing top-10 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting a year ago. We did see signs of Bassitt turning things around as we cashed with him against the D'Backs in his last start. His walks and home runs allowed are up while his strikeouts are down but he has held opponents to a .246 batting average and has posted respectable numbers in terms of hard-hit ball, ground ball and fly ball percentages. Against a light-hitting Tigers club that is without veteran Miguel Cabrera, look for further progression from Bassitt today. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Indians v. Reds UNDER 7.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams settled in extra innings yesterday. There's little reason to expect anything other than another pitcher's duel on Sunday as the Indians look to snap their skid with ace Shane Bieber on the mound while the Reds turn to veteran Wade Miley. Bieber is off to a fine start this season but there's still room for improvement after he won the A.L. Cy Young Award last year and finished fourth in A.L. MVP voting. I say there's room for improvement as Bieber has recorded a 9.5% walk percentage - well north of his career average of 5.3%. Elsewhere across the board, Bieber has been terrific as usual and with the Indians bats yet to wake up this season so he knows he needs to keep the Reds at bay in order to salvage a game in this series. Wade Miley, like Lance Lynn who we talked about earlier this week, seems to have discovered the fountain of youth. He's off to a tremendous start this season, holding opposing hitters to .108 hitting while recording a 25.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 83.3 mpg exit velocity. Miley has always been a ground ball pitcher and he's taken that to a new level in the early going this season, posting a 64.3% ground ball percentage and 7.1% fly ball percentage. While those are gawdy numbers, they're not all that out of the ordinary as Miley has done an excellent job of keeping opposing hitters off balance in the twilight of his career. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of their series last night in Seattle. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Zack Greinke squares off against Chris Flexen. Greinke has done an excellent job keeping opposing hitters off balance so far this season, recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mpg exit velocity. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks and home runs allowed are up but I certainly expect improvement from the veteran right-hander in those departments moving forward. It's not as if the Mariners have been tearing the cover off the baseball this season, hitting a collective .222 at Safeco Field this season. Chris Flexen has been good but certainly not great through two starts with the Mariners but it is encouraging that he has issued 'only' four walks in 10 innings of work as command, or lack thereof, was a big reason why the Mets were willing to cut him loose. He did a better job of avoiding walks during the spring and that seems to have carried over into the regular season. Of course, Flexen catches a break here with the Astros missing Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 8 | 11-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Dodgers will send their ace (yes he's overtaken Clayton Kershaw in that role in my opinion) Walker Buehler to the mound against the Padres and rookie starter Ryan Weathers on Friday night. Buehler is off to a predictably solid start this season allowing just two earned runs while striking out eight and not walking a single batter in 12 innings of work. The best is yet to come as far as I'm concerned, however. Interestingly, Buehler's strikeout percentage is down considerably through two starts while he has also recorded an inflated 54.1% hard-hit ball percentage. We'll call for some positive regression to the mean here against a Padres club making the long trip back home from Pittsburgh. The Padres are expected to have Fernando Tatis back in the lineup on Friday night and while he will provide an emotional boost, it's not as if he was red hot at the dish prior to getting hurt. As I mentioned, San Diego will hand the ball to rookie Ryan Weathers, who will be making his first big league start. He's held his own at every level previously, and has already got his feet wet at the big league level this season, allowing just one earned run over six innings in relief duty - even recording a pair of saves along the way. While we're dealing with a fairly small sample size, the Dodgers have hit just .233 as a team against left-handed starters this season. Note that the 'under' is 16-6 with the Padres coming off a win by four runs or more, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 7.4 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. J.T. Brubaker and Adrian Houser certainly aren't household names but I do expect them to do their part to keep this one 'under' the total on Friday night in Milwaukee. Brubaker has already been tagged for four home runs in just 15 innings of work this season after allowing only six long balls in 47 1/3 innings a year ago. I would certainly expect to see some positive regression to the mean in that department moving forward, noting that Brubaker is generally a ground ball pitcher with a better than MLB average ground ball percentage over his short career (47.5% compared to 42.8%). Brubaker has recorded an impressive 32.7% hard-hit ball percentage during his brief career and is trending right around that number in two starts this season (32.0%). Also note opposing hitters' exit velocity of just 86.6 mph - again better than the MLB average in that category. Adrian Houser has kept the ball in the park through two starts, allowing just one home run in 10 innings but he's had issues with his command, handing out six walks. After recording 8.0% and 8.5% walk percentages over the last two seasons, respectively, I do expect him to settle down. Like Brubaker, Houser does an excellent job of inducing ground balls with a career 55.7% ground ball percentage which balloons to an impressive 71.4% this season. Neither team has been tearing the cover off the baseball in the early going this season and with the Pirates coming off a high-scoring affair yesterday against San Diego, I believe we're being afforded a very generous total in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Giants took a chance on former Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani this season, paying him $6M to slide into their rotation. Through his first two starts with his new club, he hasn't disappointed, allowing just one earned run over 11 innings of work. The fact is, DeSclafani had one bad season with the Reds, that coming last year. While we're talking about a small sample size, his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks per nine innings are down considerably compared to last season. Note that for his career, DeSclafani has posted a 6.7% walk percentage, 1.5% lower than the MLB average. Through two outings this season he has recorded a 59.4% ground ball percentage which is certainly encouraging after he was sub-40% in that category a year ago. Daniel Castano will make his first start of the season for the Marlins. He struggled with his command during a brief stint with the big club last year, issuing 11 walks compared to just 12 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings. We did see considerable improvement during Spring Training, however, as Castano posted a 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 innings of work. While that certainly doesn't always equate to success during the regular season, I'm willing to take a flyer on him as he faces a Giants club that has hit just .196 against left-handed starting pitching so far this season. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Giants coming off a win this season, with those games totaling an average of just 4.1 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen seen superb pitching in this series so far with Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito dueling two nights ago before Carlos Rodon threw his no-hitter last night. We have another fine pitching matchup here on Thursday as Aaron Civale goes for the Indians against veteran Lance Lynn for the White Sox. Civale has quietly put together two outstanding starts to open the season, allowing just five hits and four earned runs over 14 2/3 innings of work. He's always been a solid ground ball pitcher and that has held true this season. The fact that he has limited opposing hitters to a paltry 83.8 mpg exit velocity and a 12.1% line drive percentage is certainly encouraging. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn seems to have discovered the fountain of youth as he only seems to get better with age. While we're still dealing with a very small sample size, his strikeouts are up while his walks are down. Lynn has limited opponents to a 34.3% hard-hit ball percentage and has yet to allow a home run in 13 2/3 innings of work. Note that the 'under' is 15-4 in Lynn's last 19 starts on five or more days' rest, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Red Sox v. Twins OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen nothing but low-scoring games between these two teams so far this week, although yesterday's double-bill was obviously of the seven-inning variety. Here, I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Red Sox send Garrett Richards to the hill against Michael Pineda of the Twins. Richards has been cut loose by two teams over the last three years so perhaps it's no surprise that he's struggled with the Red Sox as well. Through two starts he has allowed a .323 opponents batting average, a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage (not to mention a 92.4 mpg exit velocity off the bat) and 32% fly ball percentage. He's been above the MLB average in terms of home run percentage in each of the last three seasons and so far this season he's been tagged for two long balls in just seven innings of work. While the Twins are slumping at the plate right now, Richards might be just what they need to get back on track. Pineda owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through two starts this season but I certainly don't expect him to continue to post those stellar numbers. He has actually been one of the most hittable starters in baseball since a terrific two-year stretch at the start of his career. So far this season he has recorded an ugly 51.6% hard-hit ball percentage and now runs into a hot Red Sox lineup that has contributed to a nine-game winning streak. Take the over (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the 'under' in this matchup last night but I like the way it sets up again on Wednesday as the Braves try to put an end to their three-game slide. Nick Neidert will take the ball for Miami. After turning in a fine spring, he labored through 4 1/3 innings in his regular season debut, issuing five walks but giving up just one earned run on three hits. The Braves offense is obviously among the best in baseball when it's hot. While we did see Atlanta do some damage last night, scoring eight runs on 11 hits, that was in a game that got out of hand early on. Tonight, I look for Neidert to keep the Braves bats at bay long enough to help keep this one 'under' the total. Atlanta starter Charlie Morton is off to another fine start having posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through two starts this season. It's easy to tell when Morton is on top of his game as he draws ground balls at a high rate. So far this season he has posted a 48.3% ground ball percentage and a ridiculously low 3.4% fly ball percentage. His 27.6% hard-hit ball percentage is terrific as well, along with his 87 mpg average exit velocity. Morton won't rack up a ton of strikeouts at this stage of his career but he also won't hand out many free passes of yield many easy at-bats. While the Marlins exploded for 14 runs last night they had plated just 13 runs in their previous six games combined. Remember, they scored 12 runs in a win over Tampa Bay back on April 3rd but managed just one run in their next game on that occasion. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw the Giants long eight-game 'under' streak come to an end in last night's 7-6 victory over the Reds. Now I look for them to post a second straight 'over' result as they wrap up their series with the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. Tyler Mahle will take the ball for Cincinnati. He got in very limited work during Cincinnati's exhibition schedule in March and didn't fare well. He's held his own through two regular season starts but there is still some reason for concern entering Wednesday's outing. Note that we're dealing with small sample sizes when talking about Mahle's opponents' batting average going back to the start of last season. In 2020, opponents hit just .198 off Mahle while they've hit a poor .129 against him through two starts here in 2021. However, he allowed three home runs in 5 2/3 innings of work during Spring Training and has already posted a 5.4% home run percentage this season. Note that he's been worse than the MLB average in that department over the course of his career (4.0%). Mahle has also posted an ugly 16.2% walk percentage this season - again, a category where he's worse than the MLB average over the course of his 4+ year MLB career. With the Giants showing signs of life at the dish last night I think we'll see some carry-over effect against Mahle today. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. He's generally been on the decline since a stellar 2016 campaign that saw him make the All-Star Game and finish sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 26th in N.L. MVP voting. While Cueto's ERA and WHIP are stellar through two starts, he has actually recorded a poor 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 33.3% line drive percentage, which in my opinion means he's been a bit lucky to this point. Note that Cueto has yet to give up a home run through two starts after having posted home run percentages of 3.3% or higher in each of the last four seasons (the MLB average is 2.8%). I certainly wouldn't expect his 25.9% strikeout percentage to continue having recorded a high of 20.2% over his last three seasons. Note that we've now seen seven of the last nine meetings in this series go 'over' the total following last night's 13-run outburst. Take the over (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Angels plated 10 runs in last night's rout of the Royals, marking the fifth time in their last seven games they've put up seven or more runs. It's worth noting that they average just 4.5 runs per game in their last 18 contests when priced as a short favorite of -150 or less. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Danny Duffy will counter for the Royals. Kansas City has never given up on Duffy despite the fact that he's been a very average starter for them since breaking into the bigs back in 2011. They're paying him $15.5 million this season and he's off to a fine start having tossed six shutout innings to earn a victory in his 2021 debut last week. In seven career starts against the Angels, Duffy has posted a respectable 3.95 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with the 'under' going 4-2-1. While the Halos have been piling up plenty of runs this season they've yet to post three consecutive 'over' results. The last time they came off back-to-back 'overs' they were involved in a game that totaled just six runs against the Astros, with Dylan Bundy on the mound for that one as well. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of last week's stellar pitcher's duel between Kyle Hendricks and Brandon Woodruff at Wrigley Field (we won with the 'under' in that game). Neither pitcher gets enough credit. Hendricks has kept opposing hitters off balance throughout his career, finishing top-10 in N.L. Cy Young Award voting on two different occasions (including ninth last year), not to mention seventh in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting back in 2014. He owns a career hard-hit ball percentage a full five percentage points lower than the MLB average and has recorded a stunning 19.2% in that department through two starts this year. We already know Hendricks is a ground ball pitcher and so far this season he's posted a miniscule 7.7% fly ball rate. Of course, we'll see some regression to the mean but he's been better than the MLB average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories throughout his career. Brandon Woodruff is a star in the making at the top of the Brewers rotation. He's been dominant through two starts this season, picking up right where he left off last year. Like Hendricks, Woodruff is above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories. He's held opposing hitters to a collective .230 batting average over the course of his 4+ year big league career. The 'under' has gone 5-2 in his seven career starts against the Cubs as he's recorded a 3.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Brewers offense has been imposing lately, resulting in three consecutive 'overs' entering this game. I expect a different story to unfold tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins rallied for a 5-3 extra innings victory to open this series in Atlanta last night, compounding the Braves sluggish start to the season. While we saw signs of life over the weekend, the Braves still aren't hitting with much consistency and I believe that helps set us up well with the 'under' on Tuesday night. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been quietly consistent over the course of his 3+ year big league career, getting marginally better with each passing season. Lopez improved in both strikeouts per nine innings and home runs allowed per nine innings last season, recording a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Through two starts this season, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings, he's been better than the MLB average in most key advanced stat categories. Opposing hitters are batting just .132 against him. Of course, we can anticipate some regression moving forward but we don't need him to be perfect to help keep this one 'under' the total on Tuesday. That's largely due to the fact that I'm anticipating a strong performance from Braves starter Max Fried. Like the rest of his team, Fried is off to a tough start this season, recording a 9.00 ERA and 2.43 WHIP through two starts, spanning just seven innings of work. Keep in mind, Fried finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 18th in N.L. MVP voting last season and had a terrific spring, posting a 1.38 ERA 0.77 WHIP in 13 innings pitched. We can certainly anticipate him turning things around sooner rather than later. Note that the Marlins have scored three runs or less in eight of nine games this season (excluding extra innings). Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Angels are still licking their wounds following Saturday's 15-1 beatdown at the hands of the Blue Jays (we lost with the 'under' in that game). I expect a much lower-scoring affair on Monday as they head to Kansas City to face the Royals. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Here, Bundy will face a Royals club that is coming off an extra innings victory over the White Sox yesterday but has been held to four runs or less in five straight games since exploding out of the gates against a bad Rangers pitching staff to open the season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He finished eighth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 season. He was roughed up in his 2021 debut against the Rangers but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Note that Singer posted excellent numbers across the board during his rookie campaign. While he was chased early from his first start this season he still managed to record impressive 10% line drive and fly ball percentages, not to mention a 70% ground ball percentage after excelling in those three categories last year as well. While the Angels do possess a potent lineup, I do feel they're in for some regression at the dish and we saw signs of that as they struggled to get to Blue Jays starter Steven Matz on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday. The Nationals have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games overall which is perhaps not all that surprising considering they're coming off a series against the pitching-strong Dodgers over the weekend. There is reason for optimism that we'll see the Nats' lineup break out sooner rather than later though. Victor Robles enters this series riding a three-game hitting streak. Trea Turner was 4-for-8 at the dish over the last two games. Juan Soto is Juan Soto and was 4-for-8 including two home runs in the first two games against the Dodgers prior to yesterday's 0-for-4 day. Ryan Zimmerman was also 4-for-8 in the first two against L.A. before running into Clayton Kershaw yesterday. You get the picture. There is concern for the Nats' here though as starter Erick Fedde has yet to really figure things out at the big league level. Since breaking into the majors back in 2017, opposing hitters have batted a collective .283 against him. That's not to mention his career 43.6% hard-hit ball percentage - well north of the MLB average. In his 2021 debut last week opposing hitters posted a 91.9 mph exit velocity, certainly a concern as he prepares to face a dangerous Cardinals lineup that will be in a foul mood off consecutive losses against the Brewers over the weekend. John Gant will counter for St. Louis. He has got in limited work over the last couple of seasons. He was good but not great in his season debut against a light-hitting Marlins club. Note that Gant has posted worse than MLB average hard-hit ball and line drive percentages over the course of his career. He's always had issues with his command, with a career 11.6% walk percentage and while the Nats' have been struggling at bit at the plate, they're more than capable of punishing Gant for his mistakes tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Indians bats woke up and delivered an 11-run performance in last night's blowout win. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance on Sunday, however. Keep in mind, prior to last night's game, the Indians had scored just eight runs combined over their last three games. Tigers starter Jose Urena didn't fare well in his season debut last week as he got lit up by the Twins at Comerica Park. There's a reason the Marlins stuck it out for six seasons with Urena and why the Tigers are paying him north of $3 million dollars here in 2021. This is a matchup he can handle against a very average Indians lineup. Logan Allen was effective over five innings in his first outing of the season for the Indians. He'll be facing a Tigers club that boasts one of the weakest offenses in baseball, having topped out at six runs this season, scoring four runs or less in six of eight contests to date. Both bullpens should have virtually all hands on deck after last night's lopsided game. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 1-7 | Win | 103 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Pirates smashed the Cubs last night but I'm anticipating a more tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon at PNC Park. Trevor Williams will face his former team for the Cubs. He was sharp in his debut with the Cubbies, allowing just two earned runs over six innings against a good Brewers offense. He's certainly comfortable pitching here at PNC Park and faces a Pirates offense that ranks as one of the league's worst, even after last night's breakout performance. JT Brubaker will counter for Pittsburgh. He labored a bit through his first start but still gave up just one earned run through four innings of work. Like the Pirates, the Cubs offense has sputtered out of the gates and in this rubber match on Sunday afternoon, I suspect runs will be difficult to come by once again. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a bit of an overreaction in the betting marketplace to the Blue Jays playing their home games in hitter-friendly Dunedin this season with the totals being set at 10 or higher in all three games in this series so far. The Blue Jays still aren't hitting so if they're going to snap their four-game skid on Saturday night, they're likely going to need to get some solid pitching from their staff, led by newly-acquired Steven Matz. Matz pitched well in his season debut, picking up where he left off after a solid spring. Note that the 'under' has gone 36-17 when Matz takes the ball off a team loss over the course of his career with those games producing an average total of 7.7 runs. I would expect some regression from the Angels offense here after it scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series. Veteran starter Jose Quintana takes the ball for Los Angeles, noting that the 'under' has gone 75-44 when he starts following a team win over the course of his career with those contests totaling an average of just 8.1 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 9 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a slugfest between these two teams in yesterday's series-opener as the Rays fell behind early but rallied for a convincing 10-5 victory. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair in this quick turnaround spot on Saturday afternoon as both teams send starting pitchers with a lot to prove to the mound in Domingo German for the Yankees and Chris Archer for the Rays. German lasted just three innings in his regular season debut against Toronto last week - his first big league start since 2019. We should see him get stretched out a little more here and while the Rays offense looks pretty imposing after yesterday's 10-run outburst, they've actually been quite inconsistent so far this season, scoring two runs or less in three of their first seven contests. Chris Archer was once considered an ace but injuries have taken their toll and he's back at it for the first time since 2019 as well here in 2021. Archer did pitch two innings in relief against the Marlins last week, and got hit hard. I would anticipate a solid bounce-back effort here on Saturday, however, as he makes his first big league start since August of 2019. The Yankees have topped out at seven runs this season and have been held to five runs or less in five of their first seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This is a rematch of a Phillies 4-0 victory last weekend and I'm anticipating another low-scoring contest on Friday night in Atlanta. Zack Wheeler will once again take the ball for the Phillies. He finished 12th in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and picked up right where he left off in his first start of 2021. Wheeler allowed just one hit over seven shutout innings against the Braves last week, striking out 10 along the way. He is above average in nearly all of the key advanced pitching stat categories, most notably allowing a 2.2% home run percentage and a 34% hard-hit ball percentage over the course of his career, both considerably better than the MLB averages. The same goes for Braves starter Charlie Morton. That's even more impressive when you consider how poorly he performed early in his career. Morton owns a career 35.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 52.7% ground ball percentage and a staggering 18.9% fly ball percentage. He has recorded a strikeout percentage of at least 24.7% in each of the last five seasons, much higher than the MLB average of 20.2%. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Phillies come off three or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 7.5 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Friday. The Rockies are coming off consecutive wins to grab a series win over the D'Backs at Coors Field. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair as they head to San Francisco to face the Giants. Austin Gomber will take the ball for the Rockies. He got in limited work with the Cardinals last season, pitching just 29 innings but faring well, limiting opposing hitters to a .190 batting average while recording an impressive 0.8% home run percentage and a 17.3% fly ball percentage, both considerably better than average when compared to the rest of MLB - but again, we're talking about a very small sample size. After issuing a whopping seven walks over just three innings in his regular season debut with Colorado last week, there is reason for concern here. Note that he also recorded a scary 57.1% fly ball percentage in his 2021 debut. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. While he allowed just three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in his season debut there was some reason for concern as he posted a 50% hard-hit ball percentage, also giving up six hits and three walks along the way. Note that Cueto is on the decline, having posted his two highest base-on-ball percentages of his entire career over the last two seasons while also seeing his home run percentage creep up considerably over that same stretch. He also posted a 42.9% line drive percentage in his first start this year, so opposing hitters were certainly making good contact. The 'over' has gone 30-13 when Cueto takes the hill at home with the total set at 8.0 or 8.5, with those games averaging 9.6 total runs. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 when the Giants come off a five-game stretch in which they batted .200 or worse as a team over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling 10.4 runs on average. Take the over (10*). |
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04-08-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 4:15 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Brewers 4-2 extra innings victory over the Cubs yesterday afternoon and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Thursday. The Brewers will send another of their promising young arms to the mound for the opener of this series. Corbin Burnes quietly finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and turned in an exceptional spring prior to dominating a solid Twins lineup in his season debut last week. Burnes checks in above average in virtually all of the key advanced pitching stat categories and as I said, he was positively dominant in his first start of the season, not allowing a single line drive and recording an exceptional 66.7% ground ball percentage. Veteran Adam Wainwright will counter for St. Louis. He might be catching the Brewers at the right time as they're by no means tearing the cover off the ball right now. Were it not for two long balls from Lorenzo Cain yesterday they might have been held off the scoreboard entirely against Chicago. Wainwright is coming off a 2020 campaign in which he improved on his hits allowed per nine innings and walks per nine innings considerably. While he was ripped for six earned runs and didn't last three innings against the red hot Reds bats in his season debut, he actually posted a respectable 35.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 57.1% ground ball percentage. He's been here before starting the Cardinals home opener and I expect him to pitch well enough to help keep this one 'under' the total. Note that the 'under' is 28-11 in Wainwright's 39 career home starts when priced between +125 and -125, as is the case here at the time of writing, with those games totaling just 6.9 total runs on average. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Brewers last three contests. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. Both of today's starters are coming off uncharacteristically poor season debuts last week but I'm confident we'll see both get on track here today at Wrigley Field. Brandon Woodruff lasted only four innings in his first start against the Twins, struggling with his command throughout. Keep in mind, he's gotten better with each passing season and last year posted a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Through his four-year big league career he's been above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories and I'm confident he'll bounce back against a Cubs lineup that has yet to really get going this season. Kyle Hendricks finished ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season, recording a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Even though he lasted only three innings in his 2021 debut, it's not as if he was hit hard. In that outing he posted a 22.2% hard-hit ball percentage, an 11.1% line drive percentage and an impressive 77.8% ground ball percentage. Like the Cubs, the Brewers are still struggling to score runs with consistency this season. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 in Woodruff's last seven starts against opponents that own winning record, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. The 'under' is also 16-5 in the Brewers last 21 road games against right-handed starters, with those contests totaling just 6.9 runs on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the opener of this short two-game set in Oakland last night as the Dodgers offense jumped ahead early and tacked on more offense late to push the game 'over' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as the A's look to earn some quick 'revenge' while Dodgers former ace (and now number-two guy behind Walker Buehler) Clayton Kershaw tries to bounce-back from a brutal Opening Day start in Colorado. Kershaw certainly wasn't at his best against the Rockies last time out, missing very few bats over the course of 5 2/3 laborous innings. Kershaw has been here before, though, with doubters coming out of the woodwork in droves. I'm confident we'll see him respond with a strong performance tonight - it helps that he's facing an A's club that hasn't hit well at all during an 0-5 slide to open the season. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He quietly finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. Bassitt has seen his walks per nine innings decrease in each of the last three seasons, not to mention the fact he's given up less than 1.0 home run per nine innings in two of those three campaigns. He worked at least into the sixth inning in 10 of 11 regular season starts last season and while he wasn't at his best in his first start this season, he still managed to give the A's 5 1/3 innings, allowing just three earned runs against a red hot Astros offense. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a miserable start this season after getting swept in a four-game series against the division-rival Astros. While I'm not ready to take a flyer on them just yet, I do expect them to do a better job of keeping the Dodgers offense at bay than they did against Houston and will back the 'under' in the opener of this mini two-game set on Monday night. Dustin May will take the ball for the Dodgers. He finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting last season and appeared to be rounding into form as the Dodgers exhibition schedule drew to a close, allowing just five earned runs in 19 innings of work while striking out 17 over his final three Spring Training outings, covering a span of 14 innings. Frankie Montas took a step back for the A's in 2020 after consistently pitching well in 2018 and 2019. On a positive note, he did see his strikeouts per nine innings rare increase for the second straight season to a career-high 10.2. He quite simply gave up too many hits, home runs and walks but I'm willing to chalk it up as an anomaly during what was certainly a strange Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The A's just aren't hitting right now and while the Dodgers have scored plenty, they're coming off a four-game series at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Expect a different story to unfold in Oakland. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 1-12 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Cincinnati at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games between these two N.L. Central clubs to open the season but I believe Sunday's posted total will prove too high to keep that 'over' streak alive. Note that the Reds have averaged just 3.9 runs per game in 81 day games over the last 2+ seasons. They also average just 3.9 runs per game off a win over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-6 after the Cardinals are involved in a game that totals 15 runs or more over the last three seasons with those contests totaling just 7.2 runs on average. Keep in mind, the 'under' remains 15-12 in the last 27 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have somewhat surprisingly dropped the first two games of this series, only generating two runs on an improbable Pablo Sandoval pinch-hit home run on Thursday. While Atlanta is loaded with talent up and down its order, I'm not sure it can just flip a switch and start hitting. Zach Eflin will aim to shut down the Braves again on Sunday and he's certainly capable of doing it having given up just four hits and four earned runs against them in 12 1/3 innings of work last season. I do have confidence in Braves sophomore starter Ian Anderson on Sunday afternoon. Lost in the fact that the Braves bats have been silent is that the Phillies haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball either. Anderson gained plenty of big game experience in last year's postseason and should treat this as an equally important game with Atlanta off to an 0-2 start. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams in yesterday's season-opener as the Padres rallied from a big deficit to defeat the D'Backs 8-7. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Friday, however. Merrill Kelly will get the start for Arizona. He had a promising 2020 season cut short due to injury last year but all indications are that his velocity is back where it needs to be following thoracic outlet surgery last August. In two starts against the Padres last season, Kelly allowed just one earned run on nine hits over 12 2/3 innings of work. Both of those games stayed 'under' the total with just five and six runs. Kelly was worked at least six innings in five of seven career starts against San Diego. Padres prized offseason acquisition Blake Snell will get his first start with his new team on Friday. He looked good in Spring Training, working his way up to five innings pitched in his final exhibition start, allowing just one hit and no earned runs while striking out six and walking only one in that outing. All told, he allowed just five hits over 14 1/3 scoreless frames in March. I'm actually higher on the D'Backs offense than some but after plating seven runs yesterday, I look for some regression here tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with the same total we saw in Game 5 despite what I would consider to be a considerably weaker pitching matchup on Tuesday night. Blake Snell is a former Cy Young award winner and certainly a capable starter but the fact is, save for a dominant effort against the Blue Jays way back in the Wild Card play-in series, he has struggled. Snell has given up 12 walks and five home runs in four starts going back to the ALDS, covering a span of just 18 2/3 innings. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles and manager Dave Roberts has indicated he'll be stretched out a little bit in this one. Like Snell, he has struggled here in the postseason, allowing seven walks and three home runs in 7 2/3 innings. Both bullpens have given up their share of big hits in this series and throughout the playoffs. I'm confident playing the 'over' in this potential World Series clincher. Take the over (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Dodgers v. Rays OVER 8 | 4-2 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Sunday. 11, 10, 8 and 15. Those are the total runs we've seen scored in the first four games of this series. I'll stick with the trend and play the 'over' again on Sunday night as the Dodgers and Rays get their second looks at Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw, respectively. Both bullpens are obviously weary at this point of the series, with this being the fifth game in six nights, an unlikely World Series scenario in these COVID times. Both offenses have come up big when they've had to throughout this series and there's little reason to expect anything different on Sunday. Maybe in Game 6 we'll see the total get bumped up, but for now we're dealing with a very reasonable number. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as we see a true pitcher's duel in the making on Friday. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Rays against Walker Buehler of the Dodgers. Morton is a proven postseason performer and has certainly lived up to his billing here in these playoffs, allowing just one earned run in 15 2/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, Buehler has been rock solid as well, giving up only two earned runs in 15 innings since the start of the NLDS. Both bullpens are fresh after a night off and I see this as a first team to three wins type of contest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair to open this series last night with the Dodgers offense staying hot in an 8-3 rout. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 2 in what should set up as a 'bullpen game' for both clubs. The Rays are hoping that lefty Blake Snell can keep the Dodgers bats at bay but the fact is he's struggled for much of the postseason and isn't likely to work deep into this ball game (Rays manager Kevin Cash elected to leave Tyler Glasnow in the game for 112 pitches last night to conserve his bullpen for this one). While the Rays 'pen has been terrific overall this season, it struggled in Games 4 through 7 of the ALCS. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin, but he's only likely to work a few innings. Even if the Rays can't get to him, I do believe they'll be able to do some damage against a Dodgers 'pen that has struggled apart from Julio Urias. After getting through a shaky first inning, Clayton Kershaw was able to keep the Rays bats off balance over the next five frames last night. I look for a different story to unfold tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Houston at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point but I expect some offense on Wednesday night as the Rays send Tyler Glasnow to the hill against Zack Greinke. Glasnow has enjoyed a terrific 2020 season but lately we've seen him labor a bit, working at least six innings in just three of his last seven starts. The Astros will obviously be in desperation mode down 3-0 in the series and while that by no means guarantees success at the plate, I do expect them to put up a fight here. Speaking of laboring, Astros veteran starter Zack Greinke has struggled through two postseason starts against the Twins and A's and now faces an even better offense in the Rays. You would have to go back to September 8th to find the last time he worked six innings in a game. With the 'under' having cashed in three straight games to open this series I believe we're getting some value going the other way with the 'over' on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NLCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen scoring diminish since the start of the LCS with all three games in the American and National League staying 'under' the total. I expect more of the same on Tuesday afternoon as the Braves and Dodgers play Game 2. Ian Anderson has been outstanding for the Braves. In two postseason starts he has allowed just five hits and no earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only three in 11 2/3 innings of work. I certainly expect Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to rise the occasion against the young Anderson here. Kershaw has allowed three earned runs on nine hits while posting a 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two postseason starts this year. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. There's a lot of talk of 'juiced balls' thanks to a high-scoring start to the MLB Division Series'. I'm not buying it and expect a return to 'normal' as the Yankees and Rays play their third game in as many days on Wednesday. This series has obviously featured a ton of runs on the strength of plenty of long balls. I look for things to settle down in this one as two veteran starters take the hill in Masahiro Tanaka and Charlie Morton. Morton didn't get a start in the brief Wild Card round so he'll be eager to take the ball here. Keep in mind, this will be his ninth career playoff start having posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Tanaka will be making his tenth career playoff start having recorded an even better 2.70 ERA and 0.88 WHIP (despite an ugly start against Cleveland last week). Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Oakland at 4:07 pm et on Monday. Neither of these teams hit the ball well during the Wild Card round and I'm anticipating some carry-over following an extended layoff heading into the ALDS. Lance McCullers Jr. has made a successful comeback this season and is a proven playoff performer having posted a career 2.53 ERA in the postseason. I like his chances of holding down an average A's offense here. Meanwhile, Oakland starter Chris Bassitt continues to exceed expectations after turning in a critically important strong outing for the A's against the White Sox last week. In a favored role here I'm confident Bassitt will turn in another sharp performance. Take the under (10*). |
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10-02-20 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Diego at 7:08 pm et on Friday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games to open this series with a grand total of 31 runs scored and the amazing thing is, were it not for some absent clutch hitting from the Padres in Game 1, that total could be much higher. Here, I expect more of the same as we should see the two overworked bullpens log plenty of innings in this third and deciding game. The Padres seem to still be uncertain of who will start this game but Mike Clevinger's name has been tossed around as he looks to return from an elbow injury. Jack Flaherty will start for the Cardinals. He simply hasn't lived up to expectations following a stellar 2019 campaign. While Petco Park has always been known as a pitcher's park, the Padres have certainly turned that idea on its head here in 2020. Look for the scoring barrage to continue on Friday evening. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:08 pm et on Wednesday. The opener of this series totaled 15 runs last night with the Yankees bats ambushing one of the best starters in baseball in Shane Bieber. Here, I look for a much lower-scoring affair as two veteran starters take the mound in a critical Game 2. Masahiro Tanaka was an All-Star for the first time since his rookie season in 2014 last year and actually improved on his numbers here in 2020. Tanaka posted more strikeouts per nine innings, fewer walks and fewer hits (all stats per nine innings). I look for him to keep an average Indians offense at bay on Wednesday night. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. He recorded his highest strikeouts per nine innings of his career during the regular season while also cutting his home runs allowed (per nine innings) virtually in half compared to last year. That's not to mention the fact he allowed his fewest hits per nine innings since the 2014 season. The Indians bullpen was solid down the stretch, recording a 3.59 ERA over the final two weeks of the regular season and while the Yankees 'pen wasn't nearly as good, I'm confident it can hold up against the Cleveland bats. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-20 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rangers entered last night's action ranked 29th in baseball in runs per game and team batting average but I think they can get to Lance McCullers Jr. in this contest. McCullers has battled injury once again and has struggled most of the way with his strikeouts per nine innings way down compared to his career average. He's also allowing one home run per nine innings for the first time in his career (his previous career-high was 0.8). Rangers starter Kyle Gibson has been a mess. His strikeouts are way down while his walks are up. He's also allowing two home runs per nine innings for the first time in his career. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-20 | A's v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll play the 'over' as the A's and Rockies wrap up their series at Coors Field on Wednesday. Mike Fiers has seen his strikeouts per nine innings drop while his walks have gone up compared to his 15-win campaign a year ago. Things obviously won't get any easier here in the thin air of Denver as the Rockies entered last night's action ranked T12th in the majors in runs per game and ninth in team batting average. Rockies starter German Marquez has struggled with command all season, with his walks per nine innings rising from 1.8 last year to 2.8 this year. His strikeouts per nine innings have dropped from 9.1 to 8.3. He's part of the reason why the Rockies rank T28th in runs allowed per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-20 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 3-18 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Miller Park on Tuesday night. Jack Flaherty takes the ball for the Cardinals. While his numbers are slightly off those he posted a year ago keep in mind we're dealing with a small sample size after he missed time due to injury in August. Also consider that he is also coming off a season in which he finished fourth in N.L. Cy Young voting and 13th in N.L. MVP voting. He led the N.L. in fewest hits allowed per nine innings last year and he's just slightly off that same pace this season (6.5 compared to 6.2). Brewers veteran starter Brett Anderson has held his own on the mound this season. He enjoyed a nice bounce-back season a year ago and has built on that success here in 2020. His strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. He has given up more hits and home runs per nine frames compared to a year ago but here he should benefit from facing a Cards club that entered last night's action ranked T21st in hits per game and 28th in home runs. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-20 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in the Windy City on Monday night. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Minnesota. He was extremely consistent over the last three seasons but has struggled a bit here in 2020. Berrios' strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. He's handing out 4.2 free passes per nine innings compared to just 2.3 last season. Here, he'll face a White Sox lineup that's poised to take advantage of any and all mistakes as they rank 4th in the majors in runs per game and second in team batting average. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He has dropped both his ERA and WHIP compared to his rookie season a year ago but that's not saying much as he struggled mightily in 14 outings in 2019. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down while his walks are still up around four per nine innings and he's still getting tagged for just shy of two home runs per nine frames. The Twins rank T17th in runs per game but sit in the top half of baseball in team batting average, on-base percentage and on-base plus slugging. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-20 | Braves v. Orioles OVER 10 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Baltimore at 7:35 pm et on Monday. This is a high total but it's up there for a reason. Touki Toussaint will take the ball for the Braves. He has struggled throughout his MLB career and for the most part has been pitching out of the bullpen this year. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up, his walks are sitting at a brutal 5.4 per nine innings. He's also giving up over two home runs per nine frames which doesn't bode well as he heads to Baltimore. While the O's have had a tough time lately and rank T17th in runs per game, they still sit in the top 10 in team batting average and slugging percentage. Look for them to get to Toussaint tonight. No teams scores more runs per game than the Braves and they should be able to tee off on O's starter Jorge Lopez. The Royals castoff has posted a 6.38 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 24 innings of work this season which is pretty much par for the course. He's starting out of necessity here and I don't expect him to fare well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-20 | Angels v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks on Friday night at Coors Field. Griffin Canning takes the ball for the Angels. His strikeouts per nine innings are down considerably while his walks are up compared to last season and that's saying something as he isn't coming off a banner campaign. He's also allowing more hits and home runs per nine innings compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, Rockies starter German Marquez has also struggled. Like Canning, his strikeouts are down and his walks are up. While he has been able to tame Coors Field in the past, that simply hasn't been the case this year. With these two teams ranking top 12 in the majors in runs per game, look for a high-scoring affair on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-20 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. Everything lines up for a high-scoring affair between the Dodgers and D'Backs on Thursday night. Dustin May takes the ball for Los Angeles. While he has posted a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, his peripheral numbers aren't nearly as sharp. May's strikeouts per nine innings have dropped by over two since last season while his walks are up by nearly one. He's also giving up more than twice as many home runs per nine innings. Meanwhile, Madison Bumgarner has endured a nightmarish season so far. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down while his walks are way up. He's allowing a whopping 3.8 home runs per nine innings. Now he faces a Dodgers club that entered last night's play ranked second in the majors in runs per game. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-20 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 9 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Diego at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Petco Park on Wednesday night. The Rockies will hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela who is enjoying a career year, albeit in a Covid-shortened season. In his three previous big league campaigns he has always issued at least three walks per nine innings but he has cut that number all the way to 1.3 this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly compared to a year ago while his hits and home runs allowed are down. Zach Davies will counter for San Diego. Like Senzatela, he has also improved on his numbers from a year ago. Most notably, Davies' strikeouts per nine innings have climbed from 5.7 last season to 7.8 here in 2020. While the Padres are more known for their offense this season, it's worth noting that they also rank T9 in team ERA. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-20 | Brewers v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in this same pitching matchup last week - a game that totaled 13 runs. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Adrian Houser once again takes the ball for the Brewers. While he didn't give up a home run for the first time in five starts, he still allowed nine hits and five earned runs over five innings. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down compared to last season while his walks are basically on par, which isn't saying much. He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings. Spencer Turnbull counters for Detroit. I noted in my analysis last week that he was due for some regression to the mean in terms of home runs allowed as he had yet to give one up this season. Well he finally allowed a long ball in that most recent start and continues to struggle with his command, issuing a ridiculous six walks per nine innings. While the Brewers have struggled offensively this season look for them to once again take advantage of a Tigers pitching staff that has posted an ERA north of five this season, ranking 28th in the majors. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Wednesday night. The Tigers are hot right now. They rank ninth in the majors in runs per game and 11th in team batting average. The Brewers find themselves at the back-end of most offensive rankings but I do think they can have some success at the dish here tonight. Spencer Turnbull has posted a solid ERA this season for the Tigers but a deeper look indicates he could be in for some rough waters moving forward. Turnbull is striking out fewer batters per nine innings than a year ago while issuing north of five walks - way up from his walk rate a year ago. Brewers starter Adrian Houser is nothing special having recorded a 4.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. The Tigers can get to him, and the Brewers bullpen here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers entered last night's action tied for first in the majors in runs per game but rather than back them at a steep price on Tuesday night, we'll instead play the 'over' as I'm confident the D'Backs will be able to pitch in with some offense as well. Alex Young will take the ball for the D'Backs. We've actually been fairly high on Young this season but he's shown signs of regression in recent starts. He has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing four home runs in just 13 1/3 innings over that stretch. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his hits allowed and his walks have started to creep up as well. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all up compared to last year. He has worked beyond the fourth inning just once in his last four starts. Take the over (10*). |
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08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair on Wednesday night as the A's and Rangers continue their series in Texas. Mike Fiers will take the ball for the A's. It's easy to forget that he was a 15-game winner a year ago. With that being said, W-L records rarely tell the whole story when it comes to MLB starting pitchers. There's a reason he wasn't in the running for the A.L. Cy Young. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down to a career-low 4.1. His walks are on par with a year ago (2.6 per nine innings - not a favorable number). He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings compared to a year ago. The Rangers may soon have to face the fact that Kolby Allard isn't cut out to be a big league starter. He owns a career 6.41 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up so far this season, so are his walks, home runs and hits allowed. The A's are capable of teeing off on Allard on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-23-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' as the Red Sox and Orioles wrap up their series at Camden Yards on Sunday afternoon. Zack Godley will take the ball for the Red Sox. He is pitching for his third team since the start of last season, and for good reason. Godley continues to struggle, having posted a 6.87 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down slightly but he's still giving up far too many hits and home runs. In fact, Godley is giving up a career-high 2.5 home runs per nine innings this season. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Baltimore. His strikeouts per nine innings are up, as are his walks and he's giving up a whopping 10.8 hits per nine innings, matching last year's average. There's little reason to believe that LeBlanc will be able to keep the Red Sox bats at bay on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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08-22-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Francisco at 9:15 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in D'Backs starter Zac Gallen's most recent outing but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as he faces the Giants on Saturday night. Gallen has been sharp to open the season and there's honestly not a lot bad I can say about him right now. But the fact is, he's facing a surging Giants offense that has climbed to 12th in the majors in runs per game and a tie for eighth in team batting average. They also rank 12th in home runs and Gallen has now allowed a home run in all five starts this season. Tyler Anderson continues to struggle for the Giants. His strikeouts per nine innings are down considerably from a year ago while his walks per nine innings sit at a disappointing 4.8 - the same number he posted last year. While his home runs allowed per nine innings are down that's only because he went from making most of his starts at Coors Field with the Rockies to a more pitcher-friendly park here in San Fran. Take the over (10*). |
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