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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-06-18 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Cardinals exploded offensively for the second straight game last night, plating 11 runs in a rout of the Giants. I look for things to settle down on Friday as two young starting pitchers take the mound. John Gant will take the ball for the Cards. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts. Even in his last start, while he did allow four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings he needed just 79 pitches to get through that outing. Gant will be facing a Giants club that isn't scoring right now, having plated just five runs over their last four games - perhaps most alarming is the fact that three of those were played at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Dereck Rodriguez will counter for San Francisco. After a tough start to the campaign, he has settled in, guiding the Giants to wins in each of his last four starts. Rodriguez has worked at least into the seventh inning in three of his last four outings, allowing just six earned runs in 25 innings over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-18 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Neither of these teams are scoring with much consistency right now. With that in mind, I'll call for a relatively low-scoring affair on Wednesday night. Miles Mikolas remains one of the most undervalued starters in baseball. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts. He has also given up an earned run or less in four of his last six outings. The 'under' is 5-1 over that stretch. Patrick Corbin will counter for Arizona. Like Mikolas, he has been lasting deep into games having worked at least into the sixth frame in nine straight starts. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last three starts as he has given up just one earned run in his last 13 innings of work, spanning his last two outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-18 | Mets v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Corey Oswalt will take the ball for the Mets, making his second big league start. He struggled in his first, but I do look for him to settle down against an inconsistent Blue Jays offense on Wednesday. Note that Oswalt did hold the Cardinals to just two earned runs on two hits over 4 2/3 innings in a relief appearance earlier this season, so he's capable of stepping up. Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman has rounded back into form since returning from injury, allowing only one earned run over 12 frames in his last two starts. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in both of those games. I like the fact that he hasn't been overworked, needing only 81 and 90 pitches to get through those two outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 3-0 | Win | 105 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Washington at 11:05 am et on Wednesday. I'll keep my analysis short with first pitch fast approaching on the Fourth of July. Eduardo Rodriguez has at least worked into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts overall. The 'under' is 7-3 in his last 10 starts. Meanwhile, Nats rookie Erick Fedde has at least worked into the sixth frame in five of his last seven outings. The 'under' is 4-1 in his last five trips to the hill. After a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night, look for a lower-scoring contest on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 36 runs in three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday night, however, as two young starting pitchers go head-to-head. Erick Fedde will take the ball for the Nationals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six trips to the hill. I like the fact that Fedde has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his first seven big league starts. His ground ball to fly ball ratio has been outstanding over his last few outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of Fedde's last four starts. Nick Pivetta will counter for Philadelphia. He hasn't been working deep into ball games lately but should take some positives from his most recent start against the same Nats' he'll face on Friday night. In that outing he gave up just two earned runs in five innings and needed only 87 pitches to get through that start. Pivetta has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His home starts are totaling just shy of 7.5 runs per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-18 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. Just feel that this total is too high considering the current form of both starting pitchers. Sean Manaea will take the ball for the A's. He's come out of a rough patch to work at least into the sixth inning in each of his last four starts, allowing three earned runs or less in all four outings. Note that he owns a solid 3.17 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road this season. Michael Fulmer has also bounced back for the Tigers in recent weeks, working at least into the sixth inning in four consecutive starts. He has given up just five earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work over his last three trips to the hill. The 'under' cashed in all three of those contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-18 | Reds v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Sun Trust Park on Wednesday afternoon. The Reds will hand the ball to Luis Castillo. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in two of his last three and eight of his last 16 starts overall. So he's not exactly the picture of consistency, but has settled in lately, allowing just 28 hits over his last 32 1/3 innings, and I like the fact that he has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his last seven starts overall. Sean Newcomb will counter for Atlanta. We missed the mark with the 'under' in his most recent start but that was no fault of Newcomb's. In that outing, he lasted seven innings, giving up one earned run on five hits against the Orioles. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last five starts. Over that stretch, Newcomb has allowed more than two earned runs only once. He threw 108 pitches in his last outing - the first time in seven starts he had gone over the 100 pitch mark. The last two times he has thrown over 100 pitches he has given up a combined five hits and one earned run in 12 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Chavez Ravine on Tuesday night. Jon Lester will take the ball for the Cubs. he tossed seven shutout innings against these same Dodgers at Wrigley Field just last week. While he did need to throw 119 pitches to get through that outing, the good news is that he has had five full days off since. Lester has worked at least six innings in seven of his last nine starts against Los Angeles. Three of his last four starts against them have totaled five runs or less. Ross Stripling will counter for the Dodgers. He continues to be one of the most undervalued starting pitchers in baseball. Stripling has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. Last week against the Cubs he needed only 84 pitches to go six innings, allowing three earned runs in a 4-0 loss (he was matched up against Lester in that one as well). Stripling owns an impressive 1.82 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at Dodger Stadium this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Royals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Royals 2-0 victory over the Angels yesterday afternoon and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they travel to face the Brewers on Tuesday night. Jakob Junis will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five consecutive starts. He was roughed up in two of those, but has still held five of his last seven opponents to three earned runs or less. Junis' road starts are averaging a total of just under 7.2 runs this season. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He has made three starts since returning to the Brewers rotation, with all three of those coming on the road. He was outstanding in two of those, including his most recent outing in which he allowed only two hits over six shutout innings, striking out seven and not walking a single batter. Remember, in Peralta's first start of the season he allowed just one hit in 5 2/3 innings against the Rockies at Coors Field. He'll be up against a Royals offense that continues to stumble on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres aren't scoring with any consistency right now and while the Rangers have been on a bit of a tear at the dish, I believe they'll be held in check by San Diego starter Tyson Ross. Ross has been effective on the road this season, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings of work. He enters this outing having worked at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts overall. Ross is coming off one of his best starts of the season, having allowed just one earned run over seven innings against the Giants, albeit in a losing effort. Austin Bibens-Dirkx has made three starts this season, working into the seventh inning in two of those. He needed only 81 pitches to go 6 2/3 innings against the Royals last time out. I look for him to build off of that performance against a slumping Padres lineup here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-25-18 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 4:15 pm et on Monday. The 'under' has cashed in four of six meetings between these two clubs this season and I look for that trend to continue on Monday afternoon. Neither team has been scoring with much consistency lately - particularly the Royals. Kansas City has plated three runs or less in six straight games. Tyler Skaggs will take the ball for the Angels on Monday. Skaggs has posted a 2.27 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road this season. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, allowing just one earned run in 20 innings over that stretch. He has tossed 14 scoreless frames in two career starts against the Royals. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He's been stretched out over his last two outings after being on a short leash in his first two starts. Keller has given up five earned runs over his last two starts, working into the sixth inning and beyond in each of those two outings. Keep in mind, his second career start came against the Angels, and he held them to one earned run over 4 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-18 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Boston at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Mariners prevailed by a 14-10 score. I expect things to settle down on Saturday night at Fenway Park, however. Mike Leake will take the ball for the Mariners. He has at least worked into the sixth inning in 10 straight starts and while the 'over' has gone a perfect 3-0 in his last three outings, he has actually held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. Like Leake, he has been very consistent, working into the sixth inning at least in six straight starts, while allowing two earned runs or less in each of those outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in his four career starts against Seattle. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Brewers exploded for 11 runs in a rout of the Cardinals yesterday but I expect a lower-scoring game to play out on Friday night at Miller Park. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has certainly held his own this season, sporting a 2.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts. The 'under' has gone 6-2-1 in those nine contests. Flaherty has faced the Brewers once this season, allowing just one earned run in five innings. Junior Guerra will counter for Milwaukee. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts. Guerra hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a start since May 9th against Cleveland. In two outings against the Cards this season he has allowed only one earned run in 11 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-18 | Orioles v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Friday night as two teams that have been struggling to score with consistency lately go head-to-head in an interleague matchup. Baltimore will hand the ball to Alex Cobb. He missed all of spring training so the first part of the regular season was essentially his time to work out the kinks. He certainly struggled as a result. However, he has rebounded lately, working at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Note that he has also thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his last seven outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in Cobb's last four starts. Sean Newcomb will counter for Atlanta. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. Last time out, Newcomb threw six innings of two-hit shutout ball. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine outings. Newcomb has been sharp here at home, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-18 | Mets v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' at Coors Field on Thursday afternoon. Steven Matz will take the ball for the Mets. He has pitched well on the road this season, posting a 1.55 ERA. Matz has worked at least six innings in each of his last three starts, giving up only six earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work. Note that Matz gave up just three earned runs in five innings in his lone previous outing here at Coors Field. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He has certainly looked comfortable pitching in Denver this season, posting a sub-3.00 ERA. Freeland has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last 10 starts. The 'under' has cashed in eight of those 10 outings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-18 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games of this series have played 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on getaway day. Jose Urena will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been consistently keeping the Fish in games, working at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts. While I don't love the fact that he threw 112 pitches last time out and throws on four days' rest today, he is catching a Giants club that isn't scoring a boatload of runs right now. We won with the 'under' in Giants starter Derek Holland's last trip to the hill. He has allowed two earned runs or less in three straight starts, even if he hasn't been working deep into ball games. Note that the Marlins haven't scored more than five runs in any of their last eight games. I believe Holland can keep them in check again today. Take the under (10*). |
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06-19-18 | Braves v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 11-4 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' as the Braves and Blue Jays open up an interleague series in Toronto on Tuesday night. The Braves continue to win games but aren't exactly tearing the cover off of the baseball right now. They've scored four runs or less in six of their last seven contests. Meanwhile, Toronto is coming off an eight-run outburst on Sunday and a clean sweep of the reeling Nationals at home. They've still scored just a grand total of 21 runs in their last six games, however. They'll be in tough against Braves rookie Mike Soroka on Tuesday. Soroka is coming off arguably the best start of his young career as he needed only 74 pitches to navigate 6 1/3 innings of one-hit shutout ball last week against the Mets. The 'under' is 3-1 in his first four big league starts. Jaime Garcia will counter for Toronto. He's been alternating good and bad starts and is coming off a bad one entering this contest. Note that Garcia has looked comfortable pitching here at Rogers Centre, recording a 3.00 ERA in five starts spanning 27 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball lately, at least not the way they were earlier in the season. They'll hand the ball to knuckle-baller Steven Wright on Saturday night in Seattle. Wright has been terrific since re-joining the rotation, allowing just six hits and no earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work, covering two starts. Going back to the start of last season, Wright has needed to throw more than 100 pitches just once in seven outings. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Seattle. LeBlanc has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of eight starts this season. He hasn't consistently worked deep into games, but has thrown less than 100 pitches in all eight of his starts. LeBlanc last faced the Red Sox back in 2016, giving up only three earned runs on five hits in six innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-18 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Saturday afternoon as the Twins send Fernando Romero to the hill against Carlos Carrasco. Romero lasted just five innings in his most recent start but gave up just two earned runs on five hits and threw only 94 pitches. Note that he has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in seven of his eight outings this season. He'll be making his first career start against the Indians. Carrasco has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball over his last two starts, allowing only one earned run on 10 hits in 14 innings pitched, striking out 21 and walking only two along the way. He was roughed up by the Twins in his lone previous start against them this season, but has still given up one earned run or less in four of his last five starts vs. Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-18 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees were one of the best 'over' bets in baseball for the first two months of the season but that has certainly turned around lately as they've reeled off nine straight 'under' results. I look for that trend to continue on Friday night in the Bronx. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi. He tossed six innings of no-hit ball in his return from Tommy John surgery and since then has worked five innings in back-to-back outings against the Nationals and Mariners. While we're dealing with a small sample size it is worth noting that his strikeout numbers are up while his walk totals are down. After giving up three home runs in his last two starts he will definitely need to do a better job of commanding the strike zone in order to keep the Yankees All-Star lineup in the ballpark on Friday. Jonathan Loaisiga will make his first big league start for the Yankees. The 23-year old hasn't even started a game at the Triple-A level so it's difficult to say how he'll adapt to facing big league hitters. The good news is he faces a lower-tier opponent in the Rays. It's also worth noting that Loiaisiga has posted an impressive 58:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minors this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 102 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' this season and I don't see anything changing as they meet in Wednesday's series finale at Miller Park. Mike Montgomery is off to a terrific start for the Cubs this season, having worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his first three starts, allowing a grand total of two earned runs in 17 2/3 innings of work. He has needed just 76, 76 and 95 pitches to get through those three outings so he has been relatively efficient as well. The Brewers haven't been scoring with much consistency over the last couple of weeks so Montgomery may be catching them at the right time here. Jhoulys Chacin wil counter for Milwaukee. He's been sharp here at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA in 29 innings of work. His five home starts have averaged a total of just 7.6 runs scored. Chacin brings solid form to the table having worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. He hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since April 20th so his arm should be in fine shape for this one. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees were the best 'over' bet in baseball for the better part of the first two months of the season but now they check into this series riding a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday as the Nationals send Tanner Roark to the hill against CC Sabathia. Roark has been extremely consistent this season, working at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts and giving up three earned runs or less in seven of those starts. Last time out he allowed only two earned runs over six innings against the Rays. The Nats' gave Roark 11 runs in that game but generally haven't provided him a great deal of run support, putting up four runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts overall. Sabathia bounced back from a rough stretch, allowing only two earned runs on three hits over seven innings against the Blue Jays last time out. He has been fairly consistent at home this season, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings here at Yankee Stadium. His starts have generally been high-scoring but but here we're dealing with a fairly high posted total as well. Take the under (10*). |
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06-11-18 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 109 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Cleveland exploded for nine runs in yesterday's victory in Detroit, matching its highest offensive output since putting up nine runs in a game on May 31st. Note that the Indians had scored just 20 runs in total over their previous six contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox posted an impressive series win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park but scored only eight runs in the process. They've plated a grand total of 29 runs over their last nine games overall. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for the Indians. He bounced back nicely following back-to-back shaky outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings last time out against Milwaukee. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. His road starts are averaging just seven total runs this season. The 'under' has cashed in each of Carrasco's last four starts against the White Sox and he's given up only four earned runs in 29 1/3 innings of work. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He was rocked for seven earned runs and lasted only 1 1/3 innings against the Orioles back on May 24th. However, since then he has worked six innings in back-to-back outings - last time out allowing just two earned runs in Minnesota. The 'under' has gone 3-1-1 in Giolito's last five starts overall. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-18 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in the series finale between the Braves and Dodgers on Sunday afternoon. Sean Newcomb will take the ball for Atlanta. He is off to an incredible start this season, having gone 7-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Newcomb has worked at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts and has given up two earned runs or less in six of his last seven outings. He's been getting a ton of run support on the road, well north of six runs per start, but I'm not expecting the Braves bats to do much damage on Sunday afternoon. That's because the Dodgers will turn to Ross Stripling, who has been pitching exceptionally well. Stripling has posted a 4-1 record to go along with a 1.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start as he pitched five shutout innings, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out seven against the Pirates. The 'under' is 5-1 in Stripling's last six trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-18 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a flyer on Tigers rookie starter Artie Lewicki in this one. That's essentially what we're doing by playing the 'under' in Detroit on Sunday afternoon. Lewicki made his first start of the season last week in Boston and didn't fare all that well, giving up four runs, two of them earned, on five hits over 3 2/3 innings. It's not as if he was overworked in that outing, however, as he threw only 71 pitches, leaving him in fine shape as he pitches on four days' rest on Sunday afternoon. Corey Kluber will take the ball for Cleveland. Not surprisingly, he's in Cy Young form, having posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 91 2/3 innings of work this season. Kluber has at least worked into the seventh inning in four of his last five starts. The 'over' has actually cashed in seven of his last nine outings, but that only serves to give us value with the 'under' in this matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-18 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring affair to open this series last night and I'm anticipating another tight contest on Saturday afternoon. Tyler Skaggs will take the ball for the Angels. He bounced back from a couple of skaky outings by tossing six shutout innings against the Rangers last time out. Note that Skaggs has posted an impressive 2.94 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the road this season. He gave up just two earned runs in six innings in a start against the Twins back on May 11th. Kyle Gibson will counter for Minnesota. I actually consider him to be one of the more underrated starters in baseball this season. Gibson has worked at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. He has allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his last five starts against the Angels. While Gibson's home ERA is north of five, he has settled down lately at Target Field, giving up five earned runs on eight hits in 11 2/3 innings over his last two starts. Neither team is putting up big runs with much consistency right now. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-18 | Mariners v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night and I expect more of the same on Saturday as the Mariners send Felix Hernandez to the hill against Blake Snell. Hernandez has turned things around nicely, working at least six innings in three of his last four starts. His last start came against the same Rays he'll face on Saturday and he gave up just one earned run on five hits over eight innings. Note that he has allowed a grand total of four earned runs in his last five starts against Tampa Bay. Blake Snell has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball this season, going 7-3 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He hasn't given up a single earned run over his last three starts, spanning 17 2/3 innings. Snell's home starts this season are averaging just 6.8 total runs so while we're dealing with a low posted total here, I don't believe it is too low to warrant a play. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-18 | Giants v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Washington at 12:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in early action at Nationals Park on Sunday afternoon. Rookie Dereck Rodriguez will take the ball for the Giants. As you've probably heard, he's the son of hall-of-famer Ivan 'Pudge' Rodriguez. So far so good for the young pitcher as he allowed only one earned run over six innings in his first big league start against the Phillies, needing only 85 pitches to get through that outing. Gio Gonzalez will counter for Washington. He has been outstanding lately, working at least seven innings in three straight starts, giving up just five earned runs on 13 hits in 21 2/3 innings over that stretch. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last two starts. Note that he has worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts against the Giants, with the 'under' going 3-1. While both clubs have been hitting pretty well lately, the early start may help settle things down on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Royals v. A's UNDER 7.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Oakland at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The 'under' has now cashed in four of the Royals last five games after another low-scoring affair to open this series last night. Jakob Junis will take the mound for Kansas City on Friday. He has impressed so far this season, particularly on the road, where he has posted a 2.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 5-1 in his last six outings. Junis pitched well against the A's just last week, giving up three earned runs while striking out nine over 7 1/3 innings. Frankie Montas will counter for Oakland. He tossed seven shutout innings for Oakland in Kansas City last weekend. In two starts so far this season, Montas has allowed just one earned run on 10 hits over 14 innings of work. The Royals have plated a grand total of only 11 runs over the course of their five-game losing streak. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-18 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Arlington on Friday night. We won with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Justin Verlander will take the ball for the Astros. He's coming off a bit of a shaky outing against the Red Sox, by his standards anyway. Still, Verlander has worked at least six innings in all but one of his 13 starts this season. He has also allowed two earned runs or less in 12 of those 13 outings. Doug Fister gets the nod for the Rangers. He has held four of his last five opponents to three earned runs or less. He has also worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. The 'under' is 5-1 in his last six trips to the hill. Fister has faced the Astros twice already this season and has fared alright, giving up just four earned runs in 11 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-07-18 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at Target Field on Thursday afternoon. James Shields will take the ball for the White Sox. After a rough start to the season he has settled in, working at least six innings in eight consecutive starts, and at least seven innings in each of his last four trips to the hill. It's also worth noting he has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last four starts. The last time he faced the Twins on May 6th, Shields gave up just three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Jose Berrios will counter for Minnesota. He has worked at least into the sixth innings in six straight starts. He did see his streak of three consecutive 'unders' come to an end last time out but I look for it to pick back up here. Berrios certainly has some room for improvement after allowing four earned runs in six innings against the White Sox on May 4th. In his previous start against them, here at Target Field, Berrios tossed seven shutout innings in a 4-0 win on April 12th. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-18 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair in the series opener between these A.L. West rivals last night. That game got off to a slow start before the Rangers offense took over. Look for a different story to unfold tonight. Daniel Mengden will take the ball for the A's. He has quietly been one of the best starters in the American League so far this season, going 6-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Mengden has worked at least seven innings in each of his last three starts and has gone at least six innings in five consecutive outings. Over that stretch his highest pitch count was just 102. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in three of four career starts against the Rangers and tossed seven innings of four-hit shutout ball here in Arlington last year. Bartolo Colon will counter for Texas. He's been alternating good and bad starts lately and is certainly coming off a disappointing outing against the Angels in which he lasted just three innings. I do look for him to bounce back here, noting that Colon has given up just four earned runs and worked at least six innings in both starts against the A's since the start of last season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-05-18 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers are coming off a high-scoring series in Colorado but I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's series opener in Pittsburgh. We have a matchup between two unheralded starting pitchers that are performing exceptionally well right now. Ross Stripling takes the ball for the Dodgers. He checks in with a sparkling 1.68 ERA in 48 1/3 innings of work this season. Stripling has seemingly been getting stronger with each passing start, most recently allowing just one earned run on four hits over seven innings against the Phillies. Note that the 'under' is 4-1 in his last five starts overall. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has worked exactly seven innings in each of his previous two starts this season, allowing a grand total of just one earned run. Musgrove has yet to allow a home run in 14 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-02-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 12-4 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Saturday night. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Dodgers and Rockies in the opener of this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold here. Walker Buehler will take the ball for the Dodgers. He's been extremely efficient in working seven innings in each of his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs. He has yet to throw more than 97 pitches in a start this season. German Marquez will counter for the Rockies. Like Buehler, he has also lasted seven innings in each of his last two starts. Over that stretch he gave up only seven hits and two earned runs. Note that Marquez has worked at least six innings in four of his last six outings. Take the under (10*). |
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05-29-18 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams to open this series yesterday, even though the first four innings were scoreless. Both teams have trended to the 'under' this season and I look for a return to that form on Tuesday night. Kyle Gibson has pitched well for the Twins this season. His hits allowed are way down, strikeouts are up and home runs allowed also well below last year's pace. Gibson has at least worked into the sixth inning in four straight starts heading into this one, needing to throw over 100 pitches only once over that stretch. Note that his last three road starts have totaled 7, 8 and 8 runs. He has allowed just two earned runs in his last two outings against the Royals, spanning 13 innings of work. Danny Duffy will counter for Kansas City. The left-hander has been wildly inconsistent this season but is coming off a fine outing in Texas, in which he allowed just one earned run on four hits over 7 2/3 innings. Not to make excuses for him, but Duffy has faced an extremely tough slate of opponents this season but catches a bit of a break here as the Twins haven't been scoring with any consistency. Note that Duffy has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts against Minnesota. Both bullpens were bad in yesterday's ball game but I expect to see better performances on the mound on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7 | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night and while Sunday's pitching matchup may look better on paper, I expect to see more runs on the board. Stephen Strasburg will take the ball for the Nationals. While his numbers are solid this season, particularly on the road, I can't help but feel he's been laboring lately. Strasburg has worked at least into the seventh inning in each of his last six starts but has needed to throw at least 103 pitches in all six of those outings. Last time out he threw 115 pitches against the Dodgers. Note that the 'over' has gone 4-1 in his last five trips to the hill. Elieser Hernandez will counter for Miami. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start - a 2-0 loss to the Mets. He has pitched well in his first two big league starts but has clearly been on a pitch count and it's hard to say how much the Marlins want to stretch him out in this one. The Nats have been in fine form at the dish in this series, plating 13 runs in the first two games. I look for them to have another find day at the plate on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-18 | Yankees v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | 10-5 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Rangers offense sputtered at the end of their road trip and now they return home to host the Yankees, who surge into this series after scoring 18 runs in a pair of victories over the Royals on the weekend. Masahiro Tanaka will take the ball for New York on Monday. He held his own in his most recent start, giving up three earned runs over five innings (and needing only 72 pitches to do so) in a rain-shortened game in Washington. Tanaka had worked into the sixth inning at least in each of his previous four outings. Bartolo Colon will counter for Texas. He has worked at least seven innings in three of his last four starts and has yet to throw more than 98 pitches in a start this season. The veteran right-hander will once again simply be tasked with keeping the Rangers in the game on Monday night, and I look for him to do exactly that. Take the under (10*). |
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05-21-18 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I really like the way the 'under' sets up in the opener of this series on Monday night in New York. The Marlins were involved in a high-scoring affair in yesterday's series finale against the Braves but I look for a different story to unfold in this one. Rookie Elieser Hernandez will take the ball for the Mets on Monday. After making two relief appearances he made his first career start last week against the Dodgers, and pitched well, allowing just one earned run on three hits over five innings of work. He needed only 75 pitches to get through those five innings. Jason Vargas will counter for New York. He has gotten off to a disastrous start this season, allowing 19 earned runs on 26 hits in 12 1/3 innings, spanning three starts. Keep in mind, Vargas was an 18-game winner with a 4.16 ERA as a member of the Royals last year. I see this as a solid bounce-back spot for the veteran left-hander. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-18 | Rays v. Angels UNDER 8 | 8-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Friday night. These two clubs are heading in opposite directions right now with the Rays having won four games in a row and the Angels having dropped their last three. While I'm not sure how this one will play out in terms of who wins and loses, I do expect a tight, relatively low-scoring affair. Blake Snell takes the mound for the Rays. Despite his career 15-18 record, Snell has actually been a solid contributor in the Rays rotation over the last few seasons. So far this year, Snell has posted a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, and prior to a rough outing against the Orioles in Baltimore last time out, he had pitched at least six innings in six consecutive starts. Nick Tropeano is by no means a household name, but he's pitching well for the Angels, returning to the rotation after missing the entire 2017 season due to injury. Tropeano has at least worked into the sixth inning in all five of his starts this season. Note that the 'under' has gone 4-1 in those five games. The problem he may face tonight is the fact that the Angels aren't scoring right now, having plated just 15 runs in their last seven games combined. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-18 | Yankees v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Friday. Perhaps these two clubs' reputations precede them as we're dealing with a lofty total in the opener of this series on Friday night in Kansas City. CC Sabathia will take the ball for the Yankees. He struggled last time out, allowing four earned run on nine hits in just four innings of work. Keep in mind, that start came against the Boston Red Sox. He'll be taking a step down in class against the Royals here. In two starts against Kansas City last year, Sabathia allowed only three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. The 'under' has cashed in five of his last six trips to the hill against the Royals. Jakob Junis will counter for Kansas City. He has been quietly effective this season, despite pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball. With that being said, Junis is fresh off a rocky outing, giving up four earned runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings. That start came on the road against the Indians, a tough challenge to be sure. He'll face another tough challenge against the Yankees here but I'm confident he'll hang in there. Note that Junis has at least worked into the sixth inning in five straight and seven of eight starts overall this season. The Royals are giving up just 3.25 runs per contest in his four starts at Kaufman Stadium. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 8-2 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. The D'Backs have been ravaged by injuries in the early going this season with A.J. Pollock the latest to hit the D.L. They need guys like Wednesday's starter Matt Koch to step up in the absence of Taijuan Walker and Robbie Ray, and so far so good as far as Koch goes. He checks in 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He hasn't been doing it with smoke and mirrors either. In Koch's last start he held the Nationals to just three earned runs, needing only 97 pitches to work eight innings in a tough 3-1 home loss. Brandon Woodruff got lit up in his last start for the Brewers, but you can take that with a grain of salt as the outing came at Coors Field in Denver. Perhaps he had gotten a little ahead of himself after back-to-back solid relief outings. Despite his ugly overall numbers, Woodruff has actually been striking out opposing hitters at a higher rate while issuing fewer walks compared to a year ago, when he posted a 4.81 ERA in eight appearances. Take the under (10*). |
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05-14-18 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' at AT&T Park on Monday night. Sal Romano will take the ball for the streaking Reds. Romano has put up excellent numbers over his last three starts after struggling in the early part of the season. But my concern is that his strong numbers recently have had more to do with the opposition he has faced than anything else. Romano's last three starts have come at Minnesota and at home against Miami and New York (Mets). Note that Romano's first five starts this season totaled 11, 11, 17, 2 and 14 runs before his recent three-start stretch. Romano gave up nine home runs in 87 innings pitched last season. He has already been tagged for seven in only 42 1/3 innings this season. Chris Stratton will counter for the Giants. He is giving up more home runs and walks than he did a year ago, with the wheels coming off over his last few starts. Stratton has allowed 17 hits and 14 earned runs in 12 innings over that stretch. He did have a solid outing in Atlanta two starts back but it's worth noting that game still reached 13 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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05-13-18 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and New York at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a wild, high-scoring series so far with back-to-back slugfests here in the Bronx on Friday and Saturday. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however. First, it's worth noting that the A's had been held to two runs or less in five consecutive games entering this series. Brett Anderson will take the ball for the A's on Sunday afternoon. He was roughed up by the Astros in his most recent start after pitching well against the Mariners in his season debut. Note that he tossed five shutout innings of three-hit ball here in the Bronx as a member of the Blue Jays last October. Luis Severino has been light out for the Yankees in the early going this season, particularly at home, where he has gone 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He is winless in two career starts against the A's but look for him to make amends on Sunday. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Mets v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Great American Ballpark on Monday night. The Mets are reeling right now having dropped six consecutive games at the hands of the Braves and Rockies, at home no less. I do look for them to bounce back here, but not sure I'm interested in backing them as a road favorite. P.J. Conlon will get his first career big league start for the Mets. He turned in a solid spring and I expect him to pitch well against the Reds, who certainly haven't been consistent at the dish this season. Meanwhile, I don't think we'll see veteran Homer Bailey get shown up in a matchup with a rookie making his first start. Bailey's numbers aren't great but he hasn't pitched all that poorly so far this season. Two starts back he needed just 50 pitches to get through five innings and last time took a bit of a step back needing 86 pitches in five rough innings against the Brewers. He's capable of stepping up here and might be catching the Mets at the right time. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 9 | 4-3 | Win | 107 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Atlanta at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. This has been a high-scoring series so far with the Giants exploding for 20 runs in the first two games of the series. I look for things to settle down in Sunday's series finale as we see a matchup of two excellent pitching prospects. Andrew Suarez will take the ball for the Giants. After struggling in his first career start in early April he bounced back with a terrific performance against the Padres last time out, needing only 84 pitches to get through seven innings, allowing just four hits and two earned runs. Mike Soroka had a phenomenal debut for the Braves last week against the Mets, tossing six innings of one-run ball, needing just 80 pitches. He didn't walk a single batter in the outing. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Tampa Bay at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Petersburg on Saturday evening. Aaron Sanchez will take the ball for the Jays. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last five starts, and has worked into the sixth inning in all six of his starts this season. He wasn't at his best on the road against the Twins last time out but the Jays still managed to win that game so it shouldn't knock his confidence heading into this outing. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 in his five career starts against the Rays. Jake Faria will counter for Tampa Bay. He has settled in nicely to the Rays rotation, most recently tossing eight shutout innings against the Tigers. He has given up one earned run or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. Note that the 'under' has gone 3-1 over those four outings. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-18 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7 | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Friday. It's been a while, but Major League Baseball has played four games all-time in this stadium in Monterrey, Mexico, with those four contests totaling 25, 10, 8 and 10 runs. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring game as the Dodgers and Padres square off in the opener of their series on Friday night. Walker Buehler will take the ball for the Dodgers. He has pitched well in two starts and will now join the rotation on a more extended basis with the injury to Hyun-Jin Ryu. He hasn't been stretched out too far, working just five innings in each of his first two outings this season. Fellow rookie Joey Lucchesi will counter for San Diego. He'll be making his seventh start of the season. Opposing hitters have had some success getting on base against him recently, with Lucchesi allowing nine hits and issuing six walks over his last two starts, spanning 10 2/3 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. A solid matchup between two left-handed pitchers on Thursday afternoon in Arizona as the Dodgers send Alex Wood to the hill against Patrick Corbin. Wood checks in 0-3 with an ERA north of four, but those numbers are largely due to one bad start against the A's. He's not going to beat himself with just three walks issued and two home runs allowed in six starts this season. Meanwhile, Corbin has been mowing down opposing lineups, having struck out 55 while walking only seven in six starts, posting a 2.25 ERA along the way. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last three trips to the hill. Both lineups are missing some key pieces due to injuries right now. Neither have really been rolling along. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 107 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in the Bronx on Thursday evening. The Blue Jays are coming off an offensively explosion against the Royals yesterday, scoring 15 runs in their fourth consecutive victory. Here, they face a tougher challenge, however, as they go up against CC Sabathia. The big left-hander will be making just his third start of the season and he hasn't exactly been dominant. But I do expect him to perform well on Thursday night, noting that he allowed just one earned run in five innings of work against the Jays earlier this season. Aaron Sanchez will counter for Toronto. Like Sabathia, he's capable of pitching better than he has so far this season, but I look for a solid outing in a big spot here. Note that Sanchez is coming off his best start of the campaign, allowing just three hits and one earned run over eight innings against the Orioles. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-18 | Rockies v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 2-10 | Loss | -124 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at PNC Park on Wednesday afternoon as I feel both starting pitchers have plenty of upside heading into this one. Neither Kyle Freeland or Chad Kuhl's numbers are going to blow you away, that's for sure. But both have showed flashes of brilliance in the early going thi season and let's face it, neither of these clubs are tearing the cover off the baseball right now. This total has been set a shade higher than it should be as far as I'm concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-18 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -124 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Not exactly an enticing pitching matchup on tap on Tuesday night at Miller Park as the Reds send Sal Romano to the hill against the Brewers Junior Guerra. Romano has seemingly been getting worse with each passing start and you have to wonder how much longer he'll stick around in the struggling Reds rotation. Things won't get any easier for him on Tuesday as the Brewers will be eager to bounce back from a poor showing at the plate on Monday. Guerra earned a second start for the Brew Crew after tossing 5 1/3 effective innings in his season debut against the Cardinals. Despite pitching well enough to earn his team the 'W', Guerra didn't exactly show great command of the strike zone and I do think the Reds are poised to bust out at the plate at some point this week - why not in this spot? Take the over (10*). |
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04-15-18 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 7 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Fenway Park on Sunday afternoon as the Orioles and Red Sox send their aces to the hill for the third game of this series. We've seen a couple of high-scoring games between these two clubs so far, with the Red Sox winning both contests in convincing fashion. The O's should do a better job of keeping the Sox bats in check on Sunday as they hand the ball to Dylan Bundy, who is off to a tremendous start this season having allowed only three earned runs in 20 innings of work. Meanwhile, we know what we're going to get from Red Sox ace Chris Sale as he has given up a grand total of two earned runs in 17 innings pitched this season. Look for a stark contrast after yesterday's offensive onslaught. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-18 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Twins are coming off a wild victory over the Astros on Wednesday afternoon but I expect to see a return to 'normal' on Thursday night at Target Field. The White Sox got off to a fine start at the plate this season but have certainly cooled off since. They're going to need a better performance from Lucas Giolito on the hill on Thursday after he struggled in his first two outings. The Sox do have high hopes for the young righty and I believe he can handle this matchup with the Twins. Jose Berrios has been making a name for himself in the Minnesota rotation and has posted a 3.29 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings of work this season. He has also recorded a stellar 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the early going. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 3-5 | Win | 107 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This has been a low-scoring series so far with the first two games totaling just 11 runs. I expect more of the same on Wednesday night at Camden Yards. Marco Estrada will take the ball for Toronto. He's been cruising early on, allowing just four earned runs in 13 innings of work through his first two starts. He's catching a slumping Orioles lineup at the right time. Kevin Gausman will counter for Baltimore. After struggling in his season debut against Minnesota, Gausman bounced back nicely tossing five solid innings against the Yankees last week. He'll be tasked with helping the O's avoid the series sweep here and I expect him to pitch well. Both bullpens are in ok shape heading into this one, helping our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-18 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 10 | 5-2 | Loss | -114 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' at Coors Field on Tuesday night. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in the Rockies weekend series against the Braves. Two of three games in that series stayed 'under' the total and we split a pair of plays on the 'over'. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as the Padres roll into town. San Diego will hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi. He's worked 9 2/3 innings this season, striking out eight along the way. I'm just not sure he misses as many bats in this contest. Tyler Anderson has also been strikeout hungry for the Rockies, whiffing seven over 8 1/3 innings. With a 7.56 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, Anderson has obviously been laboring. Things won't get any easier here. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-14 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I simply believe this total has been set a full run too high as two of the best pitchers in the American League, or should I say all of baseball, go head-to-head on Tuesday night. Luis Severino is off to a terrific start for the Yankees. He was nearly untouchable against the Rays last time out and while he'll face a tougher challenge here at Fenway Park, he will benefit from Xander Bogaert's absence. Severino has allowed just six hits and two earned runs over eight innings of work through two starts. Red Sox ace Chris Sale had his start pushed back to Tuesday night. He's been even better than Severino, having given up just six hits and one earned run while striking out 15 in 11 innings pitched. The Yankees obviously have a tough lineup to navigate but Sale should be up to the challenge. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-18 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' at Coors Field yesterday and I won't hesitate to make the same play on Saturday. The Braves exploded early and often in yesterday's game, ultimately prevailing by an 8-3 score. Colorado didn't exactly hold up its end of the bargain offensively in that contest but should bounce back here against Braves starter Anibal Sanchez. I simply feel that the Braves offense remains undervalued right now while the Rockies are poised for a breakout at the dish. Take the over (10*). |
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04-06-18 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Friday. There's a good chance this game may not take place due to weather, but for the time being it's a go, and regardless of the wintry weather, I believe we'll see plenty of runs on the board. The Braves have been led by a number of unheralded hitters in the early going this season but there's no denying they're getting the job done. They just took care of business against one of the N.L.'s best clubs in the Washington Nationals and now they turn their focus to the Rockies. Colorado is off to an uneven start but should get rolling against a middle of the road Braves pitching staff this weekend. Brandon McCarthy gets his second start of the campaign for Atlanta. He was good but certainly not great against a relatively weak Phillies lineup last Saturday. Things certainly won't get any easier here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in at Progressive Field on Wednesday night. I fully expect to see Indians starter Corey Kluber bounce back after a rough outing against the Yankees earlier in this series. What else would you expect from a guy that has gone 10-2 with a 2.22 ERA at home this season? CC Sabathia has regained his form for the Yankees this season, going 14-5 with a 3.68 ERA. He has posted an even lower ERA at 3.19 to go along with a 7-3 record on the road this season. This series has alternated 'under' and 'over' results. Look for that trend to continue following a high-scoring Game 4. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Wednesday's N.L. Wild Card showdown between the Rockies and D'Backs. Jon Gray will take the ball for Colorado. He enters this outing having worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. Over his last three outings, spanning 17 innings, he has given up just four earned runs. Also note that the 'under' went 2-0-1 in his three starts against the D'Backs during the regular season. Zack Greinke will counter for Arizona. He's obviously a playoff veteran and while he doesn't bring great form to the table here after lasting just four innings in each of his last two starts, keep in mind, he had worked at least six innings in his previous five outings. Greinke has worked at least seven innings in each of his last four starts against Colorado, with the 'under' going 3-0-1. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-17 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. Erasmo Ramirez will take the ball for the Mariners. He's been pitching well lately but I'm not sure it's sustainable. Note that he's a miserable 1-6 with an ERA north of six on the road this season, where his starts have averaged a total of over 12 runs per contest. The 'over' has cashed in each of his last three outings against Oakland. Kendall Graveman will counter for Oakland. His last two starts have gone 'under' the total but it's worth noting he's yet to post a streak of three consecutive 'under' results this season. He hasn't lasted six innings in any of his last three starts against Seattle, allowing 12 earned runs in 16 innings of work. Two of his last three outings against the Mariners have totaled at least 13 runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-17 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Los Angeles on Tuesday night. The Padres will hand the ball to Dinelson Lamet. He struggled last time out, ending a string of four consecutive sharp outings in which he had worked exactly six innings, allowing two earned runs or less each time out. I expect him to bounce back against the Dodgers, noting he gave up just one earned run in six innings against them earlier this month. Alex Wood will counter for Los Angeles. Of course, he's enjoying a tremendous 2017 campaign. Wood has worked six innings in each of his last two starts, giving up just two earned runs on six hits, striking out 14 and walking only one. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last six outings against the Padres. Expect that streak to continue here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 13-7 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Diego at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' as we see a matchup of two starting pitchers in excellent form do battle at Petco Park on Wednesday night. Robbie Ray has been lights out for the D'Backs, not just of late, but this season in general. Over his last three starts he has gone 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. Note that he has posted a sparkling 1.33 ERA and 0.93 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, Padres starter Dinelson Lamet is winless over his last three outings, but has posted a solid 2.00 ERA. Here at home, Lamet has recorded a 3.59 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His home starts are averaging just seven total runs per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Camden Yards on Tuesday night. Drew Pomeranz will take the ball for Boston. He has worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts and has allowed just three earned runs over his last two outings, spanning 12 innings of work. Pomeranz checks in 7-3 with a solid 3.45 ERA on the road this season. Kevin Gausman will counter for Baltimore. Like Pomeranz, Gausman has been pitching well. He has also worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Red Sox in Boston as Gausman tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings. The Red Sox have certainly trended to the 'under' this season, even though they're known for their offensive prowess. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-17 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'over' at Fenway Park on Friday night. Chris Archer will take the ball for the Rays. He faced just two batters, and allowed two home runs, in his last start before leaving with forearm soreness. He had been pitching well prior to that, but has been nothing more than average on the road this season, sporting an ERA north of four. His starts here at Fenway Park have generally resulted in high-scoring affairs. Archer's last four outings in Boston have totaled 15, 10, 11 and 15 runs. Drew Pomeranz will counter for the Red Sox. He has failed to work at least six innings in three of his last four outings. Note that his last three starts against the Rays have totaled 12, 13 and 11 runs. The Red Sox like hitting for Pomeranz here at home, averaging north of five runs per start. Pomeranz's home outings are averaging well north of nine total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. It's no secret that the Dodgers are in the midst of their first real slump of the season. I'm not convinced we'll see them bust out of it at the dish on Thursday, however I am confident their ace Clayton Kershaw will turn in another stellar performance. Kershaw has allowed a grand total of two earned runs over his last seven, yes seven, starts. I could go on and on but the fact is, Kershaw has posted a sparkling 1.95 ERA in 16 nighttime starts this season and an incredible 0.84 WHIP at Dodger Stadium. Jon Gray will counter for Colorado. He's held his own against the Dodgers over the course of his career, giving up two earned runs or less in four of his seven starts against them. Note that the 'under' has gone 6-1 in those seven contests. Gray has worked at least six innings in five of his last seven starts overall. His last two road starts have combined to produce just eight total runs. Take the under (10*). |
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08-31-17 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We should see a well pitched game from both sides on Thursday night at Miller Park as the Nats' send Gio Gonzalez to the hill against Zach Davies of the Brewers. Gonzalez has been masterful of late, working at least six innings in six consecutive starts. Over his last five outings he has given up a grand total of just three earned runs over 34 1/3 innings pitched. Note that he owns a stellar 2.91 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road this season. Zach Davies is pitching as well as he has at any point in his career right now. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, and seven of his last eight trips to the hill overall. Over those last three starts Davies has allowed only one earned run in 19 2/3 innings pitched. He'll obviously be in for a tough test against the Nats' on Thursday, but I'm confident he'll be up to the challenge after dominating the Dodgers last time out. Take the under (10*). |
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08-30-17 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | 8-10 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Wednesday night. Kendall Graveman will take the ball for the A's. His overall numbers are pedestrian but he has pitched well lately, working at least six innings in each of his last three starts, giving up two earned runs or less in each outing. The last time he faced the Angels back in May he gave up just two earned runs over seven innings. Parker Bridwell will counter for Los Angeles. He has been a breakout player for the Angels this season, going 7-2 with a 2.89 ERA. Like Graveman, he has worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts, allowing two earned runs or less in each of those three outings. The 'under' has gone 8-0-1 in his last nine trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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08-28-17 | Indians v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Yankee Stadium on Monday night. The Indians are coming off an incredible series in which they swept the Royals, outscoring them 20-0. I'm not sure they'll have as easy of a time against Luis Severino and the Yankees on Monday, however. Severino has worked into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts, allowing a grand total of just two earned runs in those outings. In fact, he has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. For the Indians, their ace Corey Kluber will take the ball. He came out on the wrong end of a 6-1 decision against the Red Sox last time out. It certainly was no fault of his as he worked 7 2/3 innings, allowing only two earned runs on four hits. Kluber has proven to be a big game pitcher and has given up just three earned runs in his last four starts against the Yankees, spanning 31 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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08-27-17 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. We've made plenty of money backing the 'over' with each of Sunday's respective starting pitchers on the mound (Charlie Morton and Ricky Nolasco) over the years. Nothing changes here. Morton has had a tough time in two daytime outings this season, posting an ERA well north of five to go along with two losses. He's been pedestrian at best on the road, with a 4.19 ERA and 1.34 WHIP this season. Morton has benefited from making four of his last five starts at home but won't be so fortunate here. Ricky Nolasco continues to hold down a job in the Angels rotation but it remains to be seen for how much longer. Nolasco has allowed just three earned runs over his last two starts but that comes on the heels of back-to-back outings in which he allowed five earned runs. Note that the 'over' has gone 6-1-1 in his last eight trips to the hill. Nolasco has been fortunate to have given up only four earned runs despite allowing 16 hits in 13 innings against the Astros this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-25-17 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Friday night. We cashed with the 'under' in this ballpark last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. While the Angels are known as a high-scoring team, that hasn't necessarily been the case this season and they've actually trended to the 'under' in the big picture. Tonight they'll be up against Astros starter Collin McHugh. McHugh has made only six starts this season as he works his way back from injury, but he's coming off arguably his best outing of the campaign, tossing six shutout innings last time out. Note that he has enjoyed tremendous success here in Anaheim, allowing just six earned runs in 29 innings of work over his last four starts here. Parker Bridwell will counter for the Angels. He's given up two earned runs or less in each of his last three starts, working at least six innings in two of those outings. The Angels have won his last eight starts, and he has posted a solid 3.13 ERA in nighttime starts this season. Also note the 'under' is 7-0-1 in his last eight starts. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-17 | Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and New York at 12:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' at Citi Field on Thursday afternoon. Robbie Ray makes his return to the D'Backs rotation, making his first start since July 28th when he lasted only 1 2/3 innings before suffering a concussion. Ray has certainly pitched well this season, particularly on the road, where he has gone 5-1 with a tremendous 1.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Note that he has allowed just one earned run in 17 career innings pitched against the Mets. New York has really struggled lately but will hope to get another fine outing from Rafael Montero. He checks in a miserable 2-8 with an ERA approaching six on the season. However, he has pitched well lately, giving up only three earned runs over his last two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. Despite his 5.23 ERA in daytime starts this season, those games have totaled an average of just 7.6 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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08-23-17 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We're dealing with an inflated total here after Angels starter Andrew Heaney was tagged for four home runs in his first start following Tommy John surgery. I look for Heaney to bounce back against the Rangers, keeping in mind he struck out five and didn't issue a single walk in five innings against the Orioles last time out. Andrew Cashner will counter for the Rangers. He lasted only 5 2/3 innings in his last start ending a stretch of six consecutive starts in which he worked at least six innings. Cashner has held each of his last four opponents to two earned runs or less. The 'under' is a perfect 8-0 in his last eight starts. Take the under (10*). |
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08-23-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Petersburg on Wednesday night. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for the Jays. He has posted a sparkling 1.71 ERA over his last three starts, not allowing a single home run over that stretch. Stroman has worked at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Austin Pruitt will counter for the Rays. He got hit hard in his most recent outing, allowing 11 hits and six earned runs in seven innings. Prior to that he had given up just four earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 18 1/3 innings. Note that the 'under' has cashed in each of his six outings this season. Take the under (10*). |
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08-22-17 | Rockies v. Royals UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. While most are anticipating a high-scoring affair in this interleague matchup on Tuesday night, I believe we'll see both starting pitchers turn in strong performances and help keep this one 'under' the total. Jon Gray will take the ball for the Rockies. He's had an up and down campaign but he comes into this start pitching well, having worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Gray has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last five trips to the hill. Note that his road starts are averaging just under 8.5 total runs this season. Danny Duffy will counter for the Royals. While he's only managed to go 3-4 at home this season he has posted a respectable 3.14 ERA. His home starts are averaging under 7.8 total runs. While Duffy has had a bit of a tough time lately, that has a lot to do with the fact that he's made four of his last five starts on the road. Save for a couple of outbursts, the Rockies offense has struggled to score runs lately. The Royals have been better in that regard, but have proven inconsistent. Take the under (10*). |
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08-21-17 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We should see a terrific pitcher's duel between the Dodgers and Pirates on Monday night as Alex Wood squares off against Gerrit Cole. Wood is enjoying a career season, having gone 14-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last four starts, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last three outings. Note that the 'under' has cashed in Wood's last two starts. Cole has lasted at least six innings in eight straight starts. He has been tagged for 10 earned runs in his last three trips to the hill but I see him stepping up against an elite opponent here. Note that Cole's home starts are averaging just a shade north of 7.5 total runs per contest this season. Take the under (10*). |
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08-14-17 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I simply feel we're looking at two underrated starting pitchers in this matchup as Ty Blach takes the ball for the Giants against Adam Conley of the Marlins. Conley has been ripped over his last two outings but had been pitching well previously and should bounce back against a Giants club that has topped out at six runs (once) over their last seven contests. Blach has been terrific for the Giants, allowing exactly two earned runs in each of his last three starts, with all three of those outings spanning seven innings or more. Blach has worked at least six innings in seven consecutive starts. Take the under (10*). |
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08-11-17 | Rockies v. Marlins UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Marlins Park on Friday night. Both of these teams can mash, there's no doubt about that. However, I believe we're in for a well-pitched game on Friday as the Rockies send Jon Gray to the hill against Jose Urena. Gray has struggled in six road starts this season but most of his issues came earlier in the season. He brings excellent form to the table right now, having worked at least six innings in three of his last four starts, and seven innings in each of his last two outings. Over his last three starts, Gray has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Jose Urena has worked at least six innings in three of his last four trips to the hill, allowing exactly one earned run in three of those starts. His home starts are averaging just 7.4 total runs. Also note that the 'under' has cashed in four of Urena's last four starts. Take the under (10*). |
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08-08-17 | Cubs v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at AT&T Park on Tuesday night. Jose Quintana will get the nod for the Cubs. After three straight quality starts after joining the Cubs he finally ran into a wall last time out. I expect him to bounce back in this favorable matchup, however. Note that Quintana has allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings in two road starts as a Cub. Ty Blach will counter for San Francisco. He has been quietly effective, working at least six innings in six consecutive starts. He's lasted at least seven innings in his last four trips to the hill. Blach has posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 home starts this season, with those games totaling an average of 7.45 runs. The Giants have actually been the more consistent offensive club lately but I'm not convinced they push many across the plate here. Take the under (10*). |
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08-04-17 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Cleveland on Friday. Jaime Garcia will get the nod for the Yankees. He's worked at least six innings in five consecutive starts entering this outing. Over his last three starts he has allowed just seven earned runs over 20 2/3 innings. Garcia has certainly bounced around, with this start marking his third different team to pitch for over his last three outings. That doesn't mean he can't settle in and pitch well here, however. Trevor Bauer will take the hill for the Indians. He worked eight innings, allowing just one earned run against the Angels last time out. After struggling over a three start stretch that was just what the doctor ordered for Bauer. The Yanks have been struggling a bit at the plate so Bauer may be catching them at the right time. Take the under (10*). |
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07-31-17 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 12:35 pm et on Monday. It's getaway day in Philadelphia on trade deadline Monday and after a pair of low-scoring games between these two teams over the weekend, I'm anticipating a similar story to unfold today. Mike Foltynewicz will take the ball for Atlanta. The Braves have gone a perfect 9-0 in his last nine outings and he's been most impressive of late, working at least six innings in four of his last five starts, allowing three earned runs or less in seven consecutive starts. Nick Pivetta will counter for the Phillies. He has hung around in the Phillies rotation despite some ups and downs. I do like the fact that he battled and lasted six innings despite giving up five earned runs against a tough Astros lineup last time out. He struck out seven while walking only one in that game. Keep in mind, this is a guy that is more than capable of stepping up, noting he tossed seven shutout innings against the Red Sox earlier in the season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-30-17 | Mets v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. This series opened with a high-scoring affair on Friday night but I'm expecting a low-scoring contest in Sunday's finale at Safeco Field. Seth Lugo will take the ball for the Mets. He's quietly held his own this season, particularly of late as he has worked at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three starts. Lugo will be facing the Mariners for the first time in his career on Sunday afternoon. James Paxton will counter for Seattle. Paxton has been lights out this season, going 10-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He's been at his absolute best at home, recording a 2.36 ERA, with his 10 starts totaling an average of only eight runs. The 'under' has cashed in each of Paxton's last three trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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07-30-17 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 10 | 10-11 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Rogers Centre on Sunday afternoon. Jesse Chavez will take the ball for the Angels. He shut the Jays down over six innings in a 2-1 home win earlier this season. Chavez was roughed up in his last outing but had been solid in his previous four trips to the hill, giving up three earned runs or less in each start, with the 'under' cashing at a 4-0 clip. Cesar Valdez will counter for the Jays. He was terrific against the A's earlier this week, allowing one earned run over six innings, needing only 77 pitches to get through that outing. While that's not a sustainable trend in the long-term picture, I do believe he can pitch well against the Angels on Sunday. Neither of these teams have been scoring with any consistency. This total has been set too high as far as I'm concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-17 | A's v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Toronto at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. This has been a low-scoring series so far and I'm anticipating more of the same in the finale on Thursday. Sean Manaea was roughed up in his last start for the A's, allowing 10 hits and four earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. However, prior to that he had worked at least seven innings in three straight outings, giving up three earned runs or less each time out. Marcus Stroman has been lights out for the Jays over his last two trips to the hill and should be able to keep it going against a less than impressive A's lineup that has really struggled here in Toronto. Stroman worked 7 2/3 innings, allowing only one earned run in his last start, and that was a tough one on the road against the Indians. Take the under (10*). |
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07-26-17 | Reds v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 5-9 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and New York at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in New York on Wednesday afternoon. Homer Bailey has been a train wreck in his return to the big leagues this season, at least in the big picture. He has actually performed better lately, allowing two earned runs or less and working at least six innings in three of his last four trips to the hill. Luis Severino will counter for the Yankees and of course he's been enjoying a tremendous campaign. He's been on point in recent outings, working exactly seven innings while giving up a grand total of four earned runs over his last three starts. With the Reds struggling to put together big innings, I expect Severino to turn in another stellar outing this afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
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07-25-17 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Detroit on Tuesday night. Danny Duffy will take the ball for the Royals. He's just 6-6 on the season but owns a respectable 3.71 ERA. Perhaps more importantly, his starts this season have totaled an average of just 7.8 runs. Note that Duffy has needed only 91 and 76 pitches to get through his last two outings. He's kept the ball in the park (no home runs allowed) in four f his last five starts. Michael Fulmer will counter for Detroit. He was tagged for five earned runs in only 2 2/3 innings of work against the Royals last week. Prior to that he had worked at least eight innings in three of his last four starts, however. Fulmer owns a 3.72 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park this season. Both of these teams have been scoring in bunches lately, but I believe this is a fine spot to play contrarian and back the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-17 | Pirates v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Friday night. Trevor Williams will take the ball for the Pirates. His overall numbers aren't overly impressive by any means. However, he has still managed to hold his last six opponents to three earned runs or less. The Rockies will be seeing him for the first time tonight. Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman owns an ERA north of six at home. But he's worked at least six innings in each of his last four starts, with the 'under' going 3-1 over that stretch. Like Williams, he'll be facing the opposition for the first time in his career. Take the under (10*). |
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07-15-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'over' at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. This looks like a pitcher's duel on paper. However, I don't see it playing out that way on the field. Luis Severino will take the ball for the Yankees. He has been very average lately, posting a 4.66 ERA over his last three outings. Note that he has recorded a 5.82 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in daytime starts this season. Note that Severino's starts are averaging just shy of 9.5 runs per game. Chris Sale will counter for Boston. He's quite simply one of the best starters in baseball. Here at home, he's gone 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. With that being said, he's needed 108, 116, and 113 pitches to get through his last three outings. Note that his daytime starts are averaging north of 8.7 total runs per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-08-17 | White Sox v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Colorado at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. Travel day on Saturday. Full writeups will return on Sunday. We won with the over last night in Colorado but I won't hesitate to switch gears tonight. I'm looking for both starters to rise to the occasion. Jose Quintana hasn't had a good first half but he has shown some positive signs in recent outings and I expect him to bring the proper level of focus to this start. Hoffman has been sharp in six of his last seven trips to the hill. We're dealing with a high total as usual here at Coors Field but it's a shade too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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07-07-17 | White Sox v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with an extremely high posted total for this Interleague matchup, but I believe it's warranted. Derek Holland will take the ball for the White Sox. He's gone just 12-17 with an ERA approaching five since the start of last season. Note that Holland has been tagged for at least five earned runs in four of his last six outings. The Rockies will counter with German Marquez. He's had an up and down campaign so far. He's been far from dominant here at home, posting a 4.85 ERA. The good news is the Rockies bats have come alive for him, posting six runs per contest here at Coors Field. While Marquez has allowed just one earned run in his last five outings, he had allowed four in his two previous trips to the hill. Both of these teams can obviously rake. The loser gets to six and we'll cash our ticket. Take the over (10*). |
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07-05-17 | Royals v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Wednesday night. Jason Vargas will be aiming for his 13th win of the season for the Royals. The former Mariner will certainly be up for this showdown with his old club. Vargas has posted a 2.22 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season. He hasn't missed a beat on the road, recording a 2.74 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Vargas' road starts have averaged just a shade north of eight total runs. Ariel Miranda will take the ball for Seattle. He continues to pitch well beneath the radar for the Mariners, having gone 7-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 5-2-2 in his nine home starts, where he has posted a 2.56 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Royals have been surging but they're not scoring with a great deal of consistency. The same goes for the M's from an offensive standpoint. Take the under (10*). |
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07-05-17 | White Sox v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday afternoon but I'm not anticipating the same fireworks (no pun intended) on Wednesday. Mike Pelfrey will take the ball for the White Sox. He hasn't been great this season, but he also hasn't been awful, posting a 4.13 ERA 1.36 WHIP. On the road that ERA dips below 4.00 while his WHIP stands at 1.22. Pelfrey has seen the 'under' cash in four of his last six trips to the hill. A's starter Sonny Gray is essentially auditioning for other teams right now as the A's shop him prior to the trade deadline. He's been doing an excellent job, allowing just two earned runs in 15 innings over his last two outings. Gray owns a 3.56 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home this season, yet his starts here in Oakland are averaging just shy of 12 totals runs per contests. That's not a sustainable trend as far as I'm concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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07-02-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 15-1 | Win | 105 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Toronto at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Jays aren't hitting much right now but I do expect them to do some damage against Drew Pomeranz on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile the Red Sox got rolling at the plate late in Friday's series opener and kept it going yesterday afternoon. They should have little trouble getting to Jays starter Joe Biagini on Sunday. We're being offered excellent value to back the 'over' here thanks to the Jays offensive woes. Look for a high-scoring affair at Rogers Centre. Take the over (10*). |
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06-29-17 | Dodgers v. Angels UNDER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between the Dodgers and Angels at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Thursday night. The Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw to the hill for this one. He hasn't exactly been lights out lately but he's more than capable of rising to the occasion against the Halos on Thursday. Kershaw will be making his first road start in over two weeks. Note that he has posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP away from home this season. Kershaw has worked at least seven innings and given up a grand total of just two earned runs over his last three starts against the Angels. JC Ramirez will counter for the Halos. He bounced back from a dreadful start against the Royals, allowing only one earned run over six innings at Fenway Park last time out. That's the type of outing he can certainly build off of here. Despite his 5.10 home ERA, games with Ramirez on the mound have totaled under 8.5 runs this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-17 | Rangers v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 9-15 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers offense came to life in New York over the weekend, scoring 15 runs in back-to-back victories over the Yankees. I'm not sure they'll enjoy as much success against Carlos Carrasco and the Indians on Monday, however. Cole Hamels will get his first start since April for the Rangers. He had been pitching well before hitting the D.L. Note that Hamels has worked at least six innings in four of his five starts this season. He has faced the Indians once this season, giving up three earned runs over six innings. Carlos Carrasco has been lights out for Cleveland this season and he's been particularly sharp lately, posting a 1.53 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. The 'under' is 11-3 in Carrasco's 14 starts this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-17 | Cubs v. Marlins UNDER 9 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Marlins Park on Friday night. Veteran John Lackey will take the ball for the Cubs. He's worked at least six innings in three of his last four outings, with one of those starts coming against the same Marlins club he'll face on Friday night. I look for him to build on his most recent start here, in which he gave up just one earned run on two hits over six innings in Pittsburgh last weekend. Jose Urena has impressed for the Marlins this season, going 5-2 with a 3.64 ERA. He has worked exactly six innings in back-to-back outings, giving up only six hits and three earned runs along the way. Urena will be in for a tough challenge after the Cubs offense busted out last night but I'm confident he'll be up for it. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-17 | Tigers v. Mariners UNDER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Tuesday night. Jordan Zimmermann will take the ball for the Tigers. He continues to cruise along having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last three starts. Last time out, Zimmermann came out on the wrong end of a 2-1 decision against the D'Backs, but tossed eight solid innings, allowing only two earned runs on six hits while striking out six and not issuing a single walk. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Mariners starter Ariel Miranda's most recent outing. He was roughed up for six earned runs on 10 hits over four innings against the Twins in that start. Prior to that he had given up two earned runs or less in six straight outings. I look for a return to form here. This has been an 'under' series recently and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-17 | Yankees v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Oakland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Thursday night. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for the Yankees. He's been locked in over his last two outings, allowing just eight hits and two earned runs over 13 innings of work. He needed only 94 pitches to get through seven innings against a tough Orioles lineup last time out. Sonny Gray will counter for Oakland. He has labored through his last few trips to the hill but did show some positives signs in his most recent start, giving up two earned runs while striking out 10 in 6 1/3 innings. He needed 99 pitches to get through that outing. The 'over' has gone 7-1 in Gray's eight starts this season but I don't believe that's a sustainable trend. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-17 | Diamondbacks v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 7-6 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Detroit on Tuesday night. Zack Greinke will take the ball for the D'Backs. He labored through his most recent start back on June 7th but should bounce back here. His 3.90 road ERA isn't overly impressive, but he has posted a strong 1.18 ERA on the highway. His last two road outings have produced only seven and five total runs. Buck Farmer will counter for Detroit. He's been outstanding through two starts this season, allowing only six hits over 13 1/3 shutout innings. Along the way he's struck out 16 hitters. Farmer had really struggled at the big league level prior to this season, but for now at least, he's put it together. I believe he can keep the D'Backs in check on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-17 | Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Saturday night. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for the Jays. He has worked exactly six innings in four of his last six starts, allowing two earned runs or less in five of those outings. Stroman brings excellent form to the table having given up just 14 hits over his last three starts, spanning 17 2/3 innings. Ariel Miranda will counter for Seattle. He's coming off one of the best outings of his career, tossing a complete game victory against the Rays last time out. He has allowed only 17 hits over his last five starts, spanning 31 innings. The Jays haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball on this road trip. I look for Miranda to keep them in check on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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