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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-07-17 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Los Angeles at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday afternoon. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total low enough. Stephen Strasburg will take the ball for the Nationals. He'll certainly be up for this showdown with arguably baseball's best pitcher in Clayton Kershaw. Note that Strasburg has worked at least seven innings in three consecutive outings. Over that stretch he has posted a 33:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Clayton Kershaw had a rough outing against the Cubs two starts back. However, he rebounded last time out, striking out 14 over seven innings of two-hit ball in a 2-1 win over the Brewers. Kershaw has posted a 2.59 ERA at home this season. This has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. Obviously matchups like this don't always play out that way, but here I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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06-05-17 | Marlins v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The wind has us dealing with a low total at Wrigley Field tonight, but I believe we’re in for a fairly high-scoring affair between the surging Marlins and defending champion Cubs. Miami is rolling along right now, and scoring runs in bunches. I don’t expect Cubs starter Eddie Butler to hold them down tonight. Butler has posted some pretty pedestrian numbers this season, a 4.42 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He labored through his most recent outing, allowing seven hits and six earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings of work. He’s lasted beyond the fifth inning in just one of his four starts this season. Dan Straily will take the ball for the Marlins. He has actually impressed so far, going 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. I don’t see this as an ideal spot for the right-hander, however, as the Cubs got back in gear with a series sweep of the rival Cardinals over the weekend, scoring seven runs in last night’s victory. Straily has proven to be very hittable over his last two outings, allowing 15 hits over 12 innings of work. Take the over (10*). |
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06-02-17 | Giants v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 10-0 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Friday night. We're looking at a pitching matchup between two underrated arms. Ty Blach will take the ball for the Giants. The left-hander has gone 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA 1.18 WHIP this season and has been at his absolute best lately, working at least seven innings in each of his last four starts. He needed less than 100 pitches to get through two of those four outings. Jarad Eickhoff will counter for the Phillies. Despite lasting only 5 1/3 innings last time out, he did show some positive signs in an eventual 4-3 win over the Reds. Eickhoff has needed to throw north of 100 pitches on only one occasion this season. Neither of these lineups have been tearing the cover off of the ball lately and I expect more of the same here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-17 | Cubs v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and San Diego at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in San Diego on Wednesday afternoon. Jake Arrieta will take the ball for the Cubs. He hasn't gotten off to the start that most were expecting but has settled down a little lately, working exactly six innings in each of his last three outings and needing 95 pitches or less to get through two of those starts. In the other he didn't allow a single earned run. Luis Perdomo will counter for the Padres. He's had just one truly bad start this season and the 'under' has cashed in four of his last six trips to the hill. Last time out he faced a tough challenge in Washington, but held the Nationals to just three earned runs on six hits over six innings of work. Note that Perdomo hasn't received a great deal of run support, just north of three runs per start. Take the under (10*). |
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05-11-17 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. Neither of these clubs are scoring with much consistency right now. Entering Wednesday's action, the Pirates had plated 2, 2, 4, 2, 2, 1 and 3 runs over their last seven contests. Meanwhile, the D'Backs had scored 1, 2, 6, 1, 2 and 3 runs in their last six games. Things aren't likely to come easy at the dish on Thursday as we have a fine pitching matchup on tap. Gerrit Cole will take the ball for the Buccos. He's just 1-3 this season and 0-1 over his last three starts, but in that same period he has posted an incredible 1.35 ERA and 0.60 WHIP so he has obviously turned the corner after a shaky start to the campaign. Same goes for D'Backs ace Zack Greinke as he has given up just seven earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 27 innings of work. Note that Greinke has never faced the Pirates as a member of the D'Backs. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-17 | Mariners v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 11-6 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Philadelphia on Wednesday afternoon. Yovani Gallardo will take the ball for Seattle. He's pitched well in two of his last three outings, with his lone rough start coming in a tough matchup against the Indians in Cleveland. He should be reasonably comfortable facing the Phillies for the sixth time in his career. The 'under' is 4-1 in his previous five outings against them. Zach Eflin will counter for Philadelphia. He continues to pitch exceptionally well but does so well beneath the betting radar. Eflin has worked seven innings in each of his last three starts, needing only 89, 103 and 99 pitches to get through those outings. The 'over' is 3-1 in his four previous starts this season, but he's given up two earned runs or less in three of those games. I don't see him getting a ton of run support in this spot. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-17 | A's v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Target Field on Wednesday night. Kendall Graveman and Hector Santiago certainly aren't household names, but both starters have pitched exceptionally well in the early going this season. Graveman has really come into his own, going 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through his first four starts. Graveman did manage to win 10 games for a weak A's club last year, but also suffered 11 losses and posted an ERA just north of four. I look for him to improve on those numbers here in 2017. Santiago was on the wrong end of a 14-3 loss in Texas last time out but it was really no fault of his, as he gave up only two earned runs over five innings. Santiago is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through five outings this season. The A's haven't done much at the dish, at least not with much consistency. The Twins have been far better in that department but will come back to earth. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-17 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 7 | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll see a matchup of two underrated starting pitchers on Tuesday night in Seattle as the Angels hand the ball to Matt Shoemaker against James Paxton of the Mariners. Shoemaker has put together a string of solid outings and should be comfortable pitching on the road, where he has made three of his first five starts this season. Shoemaker struggled in his lone previous start against the Mariners this season but since then has given up just six earned runs over three starts. Paxton has been lights out for Seattle, going 3-0 with a 1.39 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. We’re dealing with a small sample size as he has pitched only 32 1/3 innings but those numbers are still worth noting. Seattle has had a tough time consistently putting runs on the board and I believe that could plague it once again in this spot, lending itself to a low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I’ll back the ‘under’ at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. The O’s will give Alec Asher his second start of the young season. Asher’s lone previous start came in Toronto back on April 15th. He allowed only three hits and one earned run over 6 1/3 innings in that one. He’s also appeared in two innings of relief, including a one-inning effort against the Red Sox last week. Boston will turn to its ace Chris Sale. Luck hasn’t been on the left-hander’s side so far as he has gone just 1-2 despite a stellar 1.19 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His 52:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 37 2/3 innings is downright incredible. Both of these teams can his but I believe Tuesday’s total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-17 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in the Bronx on Monday night. The Jays still aren't scoring, but they did manage to notch back-to-back wins over the Rays on the weekend to finally win their first series of the season. I look for Marco Estrada to keep their string of strong starting performances going on Monday. Estrada remains winless through five starts this season but has posted a stellar 2.70 ERA. That number drops to 0.95 over his last three trips to the hill. He worked at least seven innings and gave up three earned runs or less in three of four outings against the Yankees last season. Luis Severino will counter for New York. He has really come into his own this season, going 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP through four starts. Severino has recorded an incredible 33:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 in his last three trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-17 | A's v. Angels UNDER 8 | 5-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oakland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two division rivals last night, and I’m expecting more of the same on Wednesday. Sean Manaea will take the ball for the A’s. Save for some control issues, he’s done a good job of minimizing the damage in his last two starts, allowing only five hits and two earned runs over 11 innings of work. Two starts back Manaea held the Astros hitless over five frames but did issue five walks compared to six strikeouts. He’ll be looking to make amends for a rocky outing against the Angels in his season debut. Matt Shoemaker will counter for Los Angeles. Like Manaea, he has settled down after a bit of a shaky start to the campaign, allowing eight hits and four earned runs over 12 1/3 innings in his last two trips to the hill – both on the road. Off back-to-back solid outings from Angels starters, I look for Shoemaker to continue that trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-17 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
NOTE: Pitching change. Nolasco for Chavez (Angels). Play on the 'under' stands. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Anaheim on Monday night. The Jays busted out for six runs in Sunday's victory - their second of the series. Keep in mind, all six of those runs came from the eighth inning on as they took advantage of an ineffective Angels reliever, Brooks Pounders, who was making only the 14th appearance of his big league career. Francisco Liriano will counter for Toronto. He's pitched well in his last two outings after getting lit up in his first appearance of the season. Liriano allowed two earned runs over six innings in a start here in Anaheim last September. Both of these teams have trended to the 'under' this season. I'll stick with the trend. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-17 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 11:05 am et on Monday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Rays and Red Sox do battle on Patriots Day in Boston on Monday. Blake Snell will take the ball for the Rays. He's labored through his first two starts this season, allowing only five hits in 11 1/3 innings but walking eight. His last game totaled 12 runs - an 8-4 setback at the hands of the Yankees in the Bronx. Things won't get any easier against the Red Sox on Monday. Steven Wright will counter for Boston. Perhaps not surprisingly he's fallen back to Earth after a terrific 2016 campaign. In two starts here in April he has been tagged for 15 hits and 12 earned runs in only eight innings of work. The Rays have scored 16 runs in the first three games of this series and I'm confident they'll put up some runs against Wright on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-14-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Not only are the Jays not scoring, but their opponents haven't been doing much at the dish either. I expect that to change on Friday night as Toronto hosts Baltimore. Wade Miley will get the nod for the Orioles. Miley tossed five shutout innings in his season debut but don't be fooled, he didn't pitch all that well, issuing seven walks along the way. If he starts issuing free passes on Friday night, I'm confident we'll see the Jays bats take advantage. Toronto will hand the ball for Aaron Sanchez. He was not surprisingly terrific in his first outing of the season. However, the Orioles will be facing him for the sixth time since the start of last season and he hasn't always performed well against them. Look for the O's to do their part to help this one up and over the posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-17 | Brewers v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Full MLB writeups will return on Thursday. Obviously a big bounce-back spot for the struggling Jays after dropping their home opener last night. The Brewers bats will be in tough against Marcus Stroman, but I'm confident they'll do enough to help this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-17 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in the Indians home opener against the White Sox on Tuesday afternoon. James Shields will take the ball for the Sox. He struggled with his command in his season debut, but gave up just two hits and one earned run over 5 1/3 innings of work in an 11-2 win over the Tigers. I don't expect him to be so fortunate here. Carlos Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. He pitched well, and efficiently, in a 5 2/3 inning outing against the Rangers in his first start, giving up only two earned runs. He has struggled against the White Sox in the past, however, allowing eight earned runs in 10 1/3 innings pitched in his last two trips to the hill against them. The 'over' is 4-1-1 in his last six outings against Chicago. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-17 | Red Sox v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Monday. This has all the makings of a tremendous pitcher's duel between new Red Sox ace Chris Sale and veteran Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander. Sale got his Red Sox career off to an outstanding start, not allowing a single earned run over seven innings against the Pirates last week. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander picked up right where he left off at the end of last season, posting double-digit strikeouts against the White Sox. Note that despite the Red Sox offensive prowess, Verlander has held them to one earned run or less in each of their last five meetings. Meanwhile, Sale is familiar with the Tigers from his days in the A.L. Central with the White Sox. He's held them to two earned runs or less in three straight starts against them. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-16 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 6.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday night. The last time these two pitchers squared off, we saw a posted total of 7.5. That game reached only three runs as the Cubs prevailed by a 2-1 score. I'm anticipating another low-scoring result here. Jon Lester is pitching as well as he has all season for the Cubs, allowing just two earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 21 innings of work. He's certainly familiar with pitching here in Cleveland from his days with the Red Sox. Note that he's allowed just three earned runs in his last four starts here. Corey Kluber is the Indians' unquestioned ace and he'll be asked to shoulder a lot of the load here in the World Series. He's more than capable of doing just that. He has allowed just two earned runs in three playoff starts so far, spanning 18 1/3 innings of work. Kluber struck out 11, allowing just one earned run over 7 2/3 innings in his only previous start against the Cubs - that coming last season. While I do expect to see some clutch hitting from both teams in this series, I believe we'll see pitching at the forefront in Tuesday's opener. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
10* MLB ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in each of the first two games of this series but I expect a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Toronto on Monday night. The Jays can hit. We know that. They haven't in this series though, largely due to the tough pitching they've run into. Monday should be a different story as they go up against Trevor Bauer of the Indians. Bauer has gone just 12-8 with an ERA well north of four this season. He's pitched well in just one of three career starts against the Jays, allowing 13 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. He didn't even last through the fifth inning in his lone start against the Red Sox during the ALDS. Marcus Stroman will take the ball for the Jays. He's been wildly inconsistent this year and checks in with a 4.50 ERA at home this season. Note that his home starts are averaging right around 9.9 total runs per contest. Both of these teams rode opportunistic hitting to ALDS victories but we haven't seen either bust out at the dish so far in this series. It's coming though. I believe we'll see it on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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10-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We cashed with the 'under' in the opener of this series last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Saturday. The Jays will turn to J.A. Happ, who has essentially been their stopper all season long. I'm confident he'll shake off what was a bit of a shaky performance against the Rangers last Friday. He did get the win in that game, but constantly worked himself into and out of trouble. Cleveland will counter with Josh Tomlin who had his start moved up a game after Trevor Bauer suffered a freak finger injury. Tomlin pitched well in the series-clincher against the Red Sox earlier this week and I'm confident he'll hang in there against a Jays lineup that couldn't get anything going last night. I'm confident this is going to be a tightly-contested series all the way and fully expect another low-scoring affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-16 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | 0-2 | Win | 103 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Jays and Indians had their way offensively in their respective ALDS but I expect a different story to unfold as this series opens on Friday night in Cleveland. Marco Estrada will take the ball for Toronto and he is at the top of his game right now having allowed one earned run or less in four consecutive starts. Estrada has been solid on the road all season, going 7-2 with an ERA just north of three and an even more impressive 0.98 WHIP. Three of his last four starts have stayed 'under' the total. Corey Kluber gets the nod for Cleveland. He is 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA at home this season and after stumbling down the stretch he rebounded with a terrific outing against the Red Sox in the ALDS, giving up just three hits over seven scoreless innings. The 'under' is 4-2 in his last six starts overall. This was a tightly-contested series during the regular season, with the 'under' holding a slight 4-3 edge. That's not an overly strong trend, but it's one I'm willing to support here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-13-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 7 | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
10* MLB Thursday Night O/U Rout. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Washington on Thursday night. We've seen back-to-back high-scoring games in this series and three of the first four contests have played 'over' the total. I expect that trend to change here, however. Rich Hill will take the ball for the Dodgers. The left-hander wasn't all that sharp in his first appearance in this series, ultimately coming out on the wrong end in a 5-2 loss. I look for him to bounce back here, noting that he's impressed since joining the Dodgers, recording a 2.56 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His seven starts with the Dodgers have totaled an average of only 6.1 runs. Max Scherzer will counter for Washington. He sports a stellar 2.75 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home this season. His 16 home starts have averaged just north of 6.3 total runs. Like Hill, Scherzer struggled in his first outing in this series but should respond favorably here. Prior to that start, he had allowed two earned runs or less in his last three outings against the Dodgers. It all comes down to this game for these two teams and I expect it to be played close to the vest. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
10* NLDS Total of the Year My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and San Francisco at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in San Francisco on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night - which came as a surprise to most given the pitching matchup of Arrieta vs. Bumgarner. Here we see a lower-tier pitching showdown but I'm anticipating a lower-scoring result. This is obviously a series again after the Giants staved off elimination last night but they'll need a strong showing from starter Matt Moore in Game 4 in order to force a fifth and deciding game. I believe Moore is capable of stepping up in this spot, just as he has for much of the season. Moore checks in just 13-12 overall on the campaign with an ERA just north of four. But save for one bad start in Los Angeles, he was terrific down the stretch, including a key start against the Dodgers on the final weekend of the regular season. Veteran John Lackey takes the ball for the Cubs. Like Moore, he posted some rather pedestrian numbers during the regular season but he's certainly shown the ability of stepping up in the playoffs, and I've always considered him somewhat of a 'road warrior' on the mound. The Giants have an opportunistic offense, and I don't see them matching last night's output here. This total is a shade high as far as I'm concerned. Both clubs are well-suited to playing N.L. playoff baseball, just as we saw in the first two games of the series, both low-scoring affairs. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Texas at 1:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Arlington on Friday afternoon. We missed the mark with the 'under' in yesterday's series-opener but I won't hesitate to go back to the well in Game 2 on Friday afternoon. The Jays are in a nice groove offensively right now, but they took advantage of some Rangers miscues to turn in one big inning yesterday. I expect a sharper performance defensively from Texas on Friday. J.A. Happ will get the nod for Toronto. He doesn't get nearly enough credit for his successes, noting that he has gone 20-4 with an ERA just north of three this season. I'm confident he can carry over that success right into the postseason. Happ owns a respectable 3.43 ERA on the road this season and has held the Rangers to just four earned runs over three starts against them since the start of last season. Yu Darvish was lights out for the Rangers down the stretch, giving up one earned run over 13 innings in his last two outings. He's held the Jays to two earned runs or less in four consecutive starts against them, striking out 39 in 28 2/3 innings over that stretch. When you think of these two clubs the first thing that comes to mind is offense. However, this is a spot where I believe we see a duel. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 10-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Texas at 4:35 pm et on Thursday. I feel this total has been set far too high. I understand the logic behind the relatively high number, but that doesn't mean I agree with it. Jays starter Marco Estrada looked every bit the part of the staff ace down the stretch, bouncing back from a really rough period. He gave up just two earned runs over his final three starts, spanning 17 innings of work. He'll certainly be motivated against a powerful Rangers lineup, but one that he has posted a 3-2 team record against in five career starts. The Rangers will turn to their ace Cole Hamels. He had an up and down regular season but still managed to post a 15-5 record. The fact is, the Jays offense hasn't been consistent by any means and even on Tuesday night in the Wild Card showdown against Baltimore, their bats were quiet for most of the night before Edwin's 11th inning blast. When you think of this matchup you think offense, but I'm not sure the series will play out that way on the field. Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-16 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 6 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and New York at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I have no problem with going 'under' the low posted total in this N.L. Wild Card showdown on Wednesday night. We're looking at a premier pitching matchup here as the Giants send their ace Madison Bumgarner to the hill against Noah Syndergaard. Bumgarner certainly has the edge in terms of postseason experience and that should pay dividends on Wednesday night. The left-hander couldn't have asked for a better performance to head into the playoffs after as he needed 107 pitches to work into the eighth inning in a 9-3 win over the Giants last time out. Bumgarner has been solid if not spectacular on the road all season long, posting a 3.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He has also owned the Mets over the course of his career, giving up one earned run or less in four of his six previous outings against them. Syndergaard was snake-bitten by a lack of run support at times this season and as a result won only 14 games compared to nine losses during the regular season. He won't be short on confidence here though, as he checks in with a 2.87 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. Note that Syndergaard needed 93 pitches to toss six innings of one-run ball against the Marlins in his last regular season start. He didn't allow a single run over eight innings in a start in San Francisco back on August 21st. This is certainly a low total, but that's not unusual when it comes to N.L. playoff baseball. Expect a tight one. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 4-0 | Win | 104 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have been 'under' machines lately and I see no reason to go against that prevalent trend on Thursday night. Ubaldo Jimenez will take the ball for the Orioles. While he has struggled overall this season, posting some truly ugly numbers including an ERA approaching six, he's in fairly solid form right now, having given up three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He's also delivered a number of solid outings against the Jays going back to the start of last season. The last time he faced them he worked into the seventh inning, allowing just three earned runs in a 5-3 victory on August 30th. Marcus Stroman is rounding back into form as the regular season winds down. He'll certainly be amped up for his final start before the postseason on Thursday night. Stroman delivered seven innings of one-hit shutout ball last time out. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in his last four trips to the hill. He gave up two earned runs or less in three of those four outings. He has struggled against the Orioles this season, but that should add to his motivation here. Both of these teams obviously have a lot to play for right now and I'm confident we'll see Thursday's series finale play out like a postseason affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-28-16 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 7 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This game means a lot to the two starting pitchers, albeit for different reasons. For Cubs ace Jake Arrieta he is prepping for what will likely be his final regular season start as he amps up for the postseason. Arrieta bounced back for a bit of a subpar stretch with a tremendous outing against St. Louis last week, tossing seven shutout innings, striking out 10 along the way. He owns a 3.11 ERA and 0.97 WHIP on the road this season. Jameson Taillon will counter for Pittsburgh. He's just 1-2 in 10 home starts this season but that poor record hasn't been for lack of trying. Taillon has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP here at PNC Park. He's been pitching reasonably well lately and he'll certainly be up for this matchup against the Cubs - one of, if not the best team in baseball. This has been an 'over' series recently but I look for that trend to change on Wednesday night. Expect a low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'over' in the Bronx on Tuesday night. David Price takes the ball for the red hot Red Sox. Price has been lights out for the most part this season but certainly not untouchable lately, allowing eight earned runs over his last two outings. He'll face a Yankees club that will certainly be eager to bounce back and show some pride following an ugly 3-1 series loss at the hands of the Blue Jays in Toronto. Note that six of Price's last 10 starts against the Yankees have reached at least 10 total runs. Luis Cessa will counter for New York. He set a season-high with six strikeouts in his most recent outing but again, that's not always a positive sign. He continues to put a lot of opposing hitters on base, having allowed 12 hits over his last two starts, spanning only 11 innings. He's also been tagged for at least one home run in six straight trips to the hill. Cessa faced the Red Sox on September 16th and allowed three earned runs over five innings in a 7-4 defeat. Both of these offenses are capable of busting out at the dish and that's precisely what I expect to see happen on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-16 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 3-8 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Kansas City at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Detroit on Friday night. Comerica Park is obviously known as a pitcher's park and we have a fine pitching matchup in the offing on Friday as the Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy against the Tigers' Michael Fulmer. Duffy continues to roll along having allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last three starts. Note that his road starts are averaging just north of seven total runs. Fulmer has been terrific at home this season, recording a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts. He struggled last time out, but that's more of a short-term problem. In three outings against the Royals this year he has allowed just six earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work. This game should have a playoff atmosphere and that lends itself to a relatively low-scoring affair given the pitching matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 8 | 0-2 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair at Tropicana Field on Thursday night. Luis Cessa will take the ball for the Yankees. He's been good but not great in limited action this season and has had a tendency to give up the long ball, which could bite him in this particular matchup. Note that Cessa's six starts have averaged over 10 total runs. Blake Snell will counter for Tampa Bay. His nine home outings are also averaging over 10 total runs. Note that he's been tagged for seven earned runs over his last two starts, spanning nine innings of work. The Yankees have the bats to take full advantage of Snell's weaknesses here. We've seen a few low-scoring games between these two teams recently, but for the most part this has been an 'over' series. More of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-16 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Oakland on Wednesday afternoon. Houston will hand the ball to Collin McHugh. We've made some money supporting him this season but let's face it, he's struggled, particularly on the road where he has gone 5-6 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Note that his road starts are averaging over 10 runs. Daniel Mengden will counter for Oakland. Like McHugh, he has had a tough time this year, going 2-7 with an ERA approaching six. Here at home, he's gone winless at 0-6 with an inflated 6.95 ERA. He is coming off seven shutout innings in Kansas City but has struggled mightily in two previous outings against the Astros this season, allowing nine earned runs in 9 2/3 innings of work. The A's have been one of the best 'over' bets in baseball this season and I look for that trend to continue in this spot. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-16 | Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Marco Estrada's last start for the Jays, but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as he takes the hill in Seattle on Monday night. This is obviously the start of a critical series for both teams' playoff chances. The Jays need to stop the bleeding and while Estrada may not appear to be the right guy to do so, his last outing wasn't as bad as it looked on paper, as he allowed only four hits working into the sixth inning, and struck out seven, his highest SO total since August 3rd. Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker is just 6-10 with an ERA well north of four for the Mariners, but I believe he's a much better pitcher than those numbers show. He's catching the Jays at the right time as well, as they continue to slump at the dish. Note that Walker tossed a complete game shutout against the Angels last time out. Big game for both clubs - expect this one to be played close to the vest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-16 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. A solid pitching matchup at Safeco Field on Friday night as the Astros send Collin McHugh to the hill against Felix Hernandez. McHugh hasn't enjoyed a great season overall but has been solid lately, allowing one earned run or less in two of his last three trips to the hill. He's struggled in his last few road outings, but it's worth noting that he's faced some tough opposition in the Orioles, Pirates and Rangers in those three games. In his last two starts against the Mariners, McHugh allowed just a single earned run in 13 innings of work. King Felix is coming off a very efficient outing for the Mariners, needing only 91 pitches to last six shutout innings against the A's. The 'over' has cashed in each of his last three starts which helps to keep this total a shade higher than it probably should be. Hernandez has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts against Houston. A lot is on the line here, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Depending on the line you got, you either pushed or won with my call on the 'over' in Toronto yesterday afternoon. The Jays did little to help the cause in that game, as they couldn't get anything going after the first inning in an eventual 8-1 loss. I still don't see the Jays bats coming alive in Anaheim on Thursday as Josh Donaldson remains sidelined, and the majority of their order remains mired in a slump at the dish at the absolute worst time. We won with the 'under' in the Angels 2-1 loss to the Mariners last night. Albert Pujols and Mike Trout went a combined 0-for-7 in that one. When those two bats aren't going, the Halos aren't scoring, plain and simple. I look for J.A. Happ to do a nice job of pitching around those two bats as he keeps the Angels in check tonight. Meanwhile, Angels starter Daniel Wright is catching the Jays at the right time. He didn't fare too well in his first start last weekend against Texas, but he'll face a more manageable challenge here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-16 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a 'push' and an 'under' result so far in this series and I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair in Anaheim on Wednesday. The 'under' is 5-2 in Hisashi Iwakuma's last seven starts for the Mariners, and he's allowed three earned runs or less in six of those outings. Despite not piling up many wins, Iwakuma has pitched well against the Angels, giving up three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts versus the division rival. Jhoulys Chacin will simply be asked to keep his Halos in the game tonight, and the hope is that he can at the very least work into the sixth inning. Chacin did hold the Yankees scoreless over 5 2/3 innings in his last trip to the hill. The Angels aren't hitting right now while the Mariners have fared well at the dish in this series, they were held to exactly three runs in two of three games in Oakland this past weekend. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 12:35 pm et on Wednsday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair at Rogers Centre on Wednesday afternoon. Alex Cobb will get the nod for the Rays. He's made just two starts this year, returning after a year plus on the shelf. Cobb didn't pitch particularly well in those starts, allowing 13 hits and five earned runs over 11 innings of work. Both of those games went 'over' the total. Marco Estrada continues to struggle for the Jays. He has given up at least five earned runs in three of his last five outings. Included in that stretch was an ugly outing against the Rays in which he was tagged for five earned runs. The 'over' is 5-1 in Estrada's last six starts overall and 2-0 in his last two outings against the Rays. Take the over (10*). |
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