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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-24-22 | Tigers v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Diamondbacks -1.5,. +125) I'll take my chances with the Diamondbacks covering the -1.5 run line in Friday's series opener against the Tigers. Tough spot here for Detroit. The Tigers played 3 games in Boston before an off day on Thursday, which they had to use to travel clear across the country to Arizona. The Diamondbacks will be highly motivated after getting swept in a series at San Diego. Arizona also has a clear-cut edge on the mound in this one. Merrill Kelly will get the start for the Diamondbacks. He's got a sharp 2.84 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Most recently allowing just 1 run on 5 hits in 7 innings at home against the Twins. Detroit will counter with Rony Garcia, who has a 6.37 ERA in 5 starts. Garcia has given up 8 runs on 10 hits (3 HR) in just 10 innings over his last two starts. Arizona has scored 7 or more in 3 of their last 4 at home, while the Tigers are averaging a mere 2.4 runs/game on the road this season. Give me the Diamondbacks -1.5, +125! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-23-22 | Phillies v. Padres -140 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Padres -140) I'll take my chances with the Padres as a -140 home favorite against the Phillies. San Diego comes into this game fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Diamondbacks at home. Philadelphia has lost 3 in a row and are now playing in their 3rd different city in a matter of just 5 days. Phillies finished up a 4-game series at Washington on Sunday, got a day off before playing two games at Texas and then had to travel way out west to San Diego after yesterday's game was over. On top of that, the Padres have a clear-cut edge on the mound. San Diego will start Joe Musgrove, while the Phillies turn to Ranger Suarez. Musgrove is 8-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 12 starts. Suarez is 5-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 13 starts. Give me the Padres -140! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-22-22 | Giants v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9) I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's matchup between the Braves and Giants. These two had an offensive explosion on Tuesday, as Atlanta squeaked out a 12-10 win. I believe it's created some value with today's total, as we got a pretty good starting pitching matchup. The Giants will have Carlos Rodon on the mound. Rodon had that great start to 2022, but then had a stretch of some not so great outings. He seems to have righted the ship. Rodon has a 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and has not allowed a run in his last 2 outings. Charlie Morton will get the ball for Atlanta. Morton's numbers aren't great, as he owns a 5.08 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 13 starts. However, he too has shown some life of late. Morton just threw 7 scoreless innings in his last start and has racked up an impressive 29 K's in 18 innings over his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 9! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-21-22 | Guardians v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Top Play (Over 9) I'll take my chances with the OVER 9 in Tuesday's AL Central matchup between the Twins and Guardians. These two teams should have no problem combining for at least 10 runs. Cleveland will send out Aaron Civale, who has an ugly 7.84 ERA in 7 starts and a 12.00 ERA and 2.133 WHIP in 4 road outings (OVER is 4-0). The Twins will turn to Joe Ryan. While Ryan comes in with an impressive 2.81 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in 9 starts, he struggled in his first start back after missing close to 3 weeks. Ryan gave up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HR) in just 4 2/3 innings at Seattle. The other big factor in the OVER is Mother Nature. It's expected to be in the mid 80's with wind blowing out to center at close to 20 mph. Give me the OVER 9! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-20-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Angels -1.5, +110) I'll take my chances on the Angels covering the -1.5 run line at home against the Royals in Monday's series opener. LA just took 4 of 5 in a lengthy 5-game series against division rival Seattle over the weekend. Their pitching was outstanding in all 4 wins, as they allowed just 3 total runs in those 4 games. Expect more of the same tonight, as the Angels will turn to Noah Syndergaard for his 11th start of the season. Syndergaard has had his ups and downs on the road, but he's been Cy Young-like at home. Syndergaard is 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in 5 home starts. Kansas City is expected to go with Kris Bubic, who has an awful 8.36 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 28 innings of work (8 starts, 1 relief appearance). Royals are also starting their 3rd straight series on the west coast. KC was shutout in a loss to the A's on Sunday and have scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their first 6 on this lengthy 9-game road trip. Give me the Angels -1.5, +110! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-19-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 6-0 | Win | 105 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE WEEK (Braves -1.5, +105) I'll take my chances with the Braves on the -1.5 run line as they finish up their 3-game series in Chicago This series has not gone how you would have thought. Atlanta came into this series on a 14-game winning streak and the Cubs entered having lost 10 in a row. Yet it's been Chicago who has won each of the first two games in the series. I have a hard time seeing the Cubs finish off the sweep. Atlanta is a perfect 9-0 this season after back-to-back losses and have went on to win in this spot by an average score of 6.2 to 1.9. Got to like the Braves' chances of putting up a big number here. Kyle Hendricks will be on the mound for Chicago. He's a disappointing 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.304 WHIP in 12 starts. He's also 1-3 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in 6 career starts vs Atlanta. In his last 3 starts vs the Braves, Hendricks has given up 21 runs (16 ER) on 28 hits (9 HR) in just 12 innings of work. Give me the Braves -1.5, +105 Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-18-22 | Twins v. Diamondbacks +103 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK (Diamondbacks +103) I'll take my chances with the Diamondbacks as a +103 home dog against the Twins. Arizona took down Minnesota 7-2 as a +125 dog in Friday's series opener. Hard to not like the Diamondbacks at close to even money today. A big reason for that is who Arizona will have on the mound. Dylan Bundy is set to make his 11th start of 2022. It hasn't been a good start to the season for Bundy. He's 3-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 10 starts. He's got a 8.55 ERA and 1.861 WHIP in 6 road starts (Twins are 1-5 in those starts) and has a 9.49 ERA over his last 3 outings. Luke Weaver will make his first start of 2022. He pitched well in 3 innings of relief last Sunday and is facing a struggling Twins lineup. Minnesota has scored just 10 runs total over their last 5 games. Give me the Diamondbacks +103! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-17-22 | Angels v. Mariners -122 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Mariners -122) I'll take my chances with the Mariners as a slim -122 home favorite against the Angels. Love the price here with Seattle. Mariners will have ace Robbie Ray on the mound. Ray hasn't had the best 2022 season to this point. He's just 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.249 WHIP. However, he's coming off a great outing at home against the Red Sox, allowing just 3 hits over 7 scoreless. I like Ray to build off that outing against a slumping LA offense that has scored just 6 total runs over their last 4 games. I also think there's some value here fading Angels' starter Michael Lorenzen. He's a solid 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in 10 starts. Thing is, Lorenzen hasn't been nearly as good on the road as he has at home. He's just 2-2 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in 4 road starts. LA is a mere 4-17 on the money line as a dog this season, while Seattle is 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 1 or fewer runs in a loss to a division opponent (lost 1-4 to LA yesterday). Give me the Mariners -122! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-15-22 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's matchup between the Twins and Mariners. It's only expected to be in the high 50's in Seattle when this game goes off. Seattle has now played 5 games on their long homestand and 4 of the 5 so far have seen 7 or fewer runs scored. All signs point to another lower scoring game today, as we got two pretty good starters on the mound with Minnesota's Sonny Gray and Seattle's Marco Gonzales. Gray has a 2.41 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 7 starts overall. He's been even better than that with 1.42 ERA and 0.684 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Gonzales has a 3.63 ERA in 12 starts and 3.38 ERA over his last 3 outings. Give me the UNDER 8! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-14-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -145 | Top | 11-9 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Phillies -145) I'll take my chances with the Phillies as a -145 home favorite against the Marlins. Philadelphia has caught fire since making a change at the top. Phillies are now 10-1 over their last 11 games. Hard to not like them to find a way to win at home against Miami tonight. Phillies will have Zach Eflin on the mound. He's got a 1.16 ERA and 0.774 WHIP over 5 home starts. Miami's going with Trevor Rogers, who has a 6.58 ERA and 1.609 WHIP over his last 3 starts and is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.609 WHIP over 6 career starts vs Philadelphia. Play the Phillies -145! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-12-22 | Orioles v. Royals -119 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Royals -119) I'll take my chances with Kansas City as a slim -119 home favorite against the Orioles on Sunday. The books aren't giving the Royals enough respect here with the edge they have on the mound. Baltimore is sending out Dean Kremer. He gave up 3 runs on 5 hits in 4 1/3 innings in his first and only start of 2022. He had that great showing in 3 starts back in 2020, but then had a 7.55 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 13 starts last year. Royals are going to have Brad Keller on the mound. He's been one of the more unlucky pitchers to this point. He's 1-7 despite a modest 4.18 ERA and strong 1.260 WHIP in 11 starts. He's 1-3 at home, despite a 2.75 ERA and 1.017 WHIP. My money on his luck to start to turn around with this outing. Give me Kansas City -119  Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-11-22 | Rangers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 11-9 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
American League TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8) I love the UNDER 8 in Saturday's matchup between the White Sox and Rangers. We got Martin Perez on the mound for Texas. He's one of the more underrated starters in the league. Perez has a 1.56 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 11 starts. He's been nearly unhittable on the road, posting a 0.31 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in 4 road outings. Chicago will turn to Lucas Giolito. He's not been quite as good as what people expected to this point. He's got a 3.54 ERA and 1.457 WHIP in 9 starts. Key here is he is a different guy at home. Giolito has 2.37 ERA and 1.263 WHIP over 3 home starts. He's also got a 2.38 ERA over 2 career starts vs the Rangers. Give me the UNDER 8! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-09-22 | Pirates v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Braves -1.5, -128) I'll take my chances with the Braves on the -1.5 run line in Thursday's home against the Pirates. Atlanta won the series opener 13-2 on Wednesday and have now won 7 straight. Braves are scoring 7.4 runs/game during their 7-game win streak and will be up against Pittsburgh's JT Brubaker, who is 0-5 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.452 HIP in 11 starts this year. Brubaker's only career start vs Atlanta came last year and he was torched for 7 runs on 7 hits (3 HR) in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-1 Braves win. Atlanta will counter with the red-hot Max Fried. Fried has a strong 2.74 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 11 starts overall in 2022. He's got a 1.35 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last 3 outings and that includes 8 shutout innings in his last start in Colorado at Coors Field. He's facing a Pirates offense that has scored 3 or fewer in 4 straight and are averaging just 3.4 runs/game on the road this season. Give me the Braves -1.5, -128! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-07-22 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
National League Total PLAY OF THE WEEK (UNDER 8) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's series opener between the Mets and Padres. Really good starting pitching matchup in this one, as San Diego sends out Yu Darvish and New York turns to Taijuan Walker. Darvish has had his ups and downs in 2022, which is why he's got a 4.03 ERA in 10 starts. However, most of the damage has come on the road. Darvish is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.683 WHIP in 4 home starts. All 4 starts have finished UNDER the total. Walker has been rock solid regardless of where he starts. He's got a 2.88 ERA in 8 starts overall and a 2.80 ERA in 5 road starts. He's also got a 2.04 ERA over his last 3 starts, as he's allowed just 4 ER in his last 17 2/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 8! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-06-22 | Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 9 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
MLB Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Monday's matchup between the Red Sox and Angels. Michael Wacha will be on the mound for Boston. He's got a 2.43 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 8 starts. The UNDER cashing in 6 of those 8 outings. Wacha will be facing a Angels' lineup that is in quite a funk. LA has scored 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games. Noah Syndergaard was just torched for 5 runs in 2 1/3 innings at New York, but that wasn't all that surprising. It's been night and day for Syndergaard in terms of his performance at home and on the road. Syndergaard is 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.863 WHIP over 4 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-04-22 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 7.5) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's matchup between the Padres and Brewers. Two underrated starters take the mound in this one. Mackenzie Gore of the Padres has been sensational in his first 7 big league starts (all this year). He's 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.077 WHIP with 43 Ks in 39 innings of work. Milwaukee's Aaron Ashby has a 2.48 ERA over 5 starts this season and he's done that with 4 of his 5 starts coming on the road. He's also really had just one bad outing at Atlanta a few starts back. He gave up 6 in 4 innings. He's allowed a mere 2 ER in his 4 other starts combined. Give me the UNDER 7.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 7.5) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's series opener between the Diamondbacks and Pirates. I like the pitching matchup we have in this one. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has an ugly 10.50 ERA and 2.167 WHIP in his last 3 starts, but almost all the damage came in one start on the road against the Dodgers, where he gave up 8 runs in 2 innings. He's pitched better in his last two starts and now faces a very mediocre Pirates offense that figures to be dealing with a bit of jet lag and a possible letdown after playing 6 straight in California and off a 3-game sweep of the Dodgers in LA. Pittsburgh will counter with the red-hot J.T. Brubaker, who has a 2.08 ERA over his last 3 starts, giving up a mere 4 ER over his last 17 1/3 innings of work. Brubaker's only career start vs Arizona came last August and he held the Dbacks scoreless over 5 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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06-01-22 | Giants v. Phillies -115 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Phillies -115) I'll take my chances with the Phillies as a -115 home favorite against the Giants. Great time to buy low on Philadelphia. The Phillies are being way undervalued due to having lost 5 straight. Philadelphia will have ace Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola is just 2-4 with a 3.56 ERA, but has a sensational 0.940 WHIP. He's fresh off his best start of the season, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits with 10 K's in 8 1/3 innings at Atlanta. San Francisco will counter with Carlos Rodon. After looking like a Cy Young contender early on in 2022, Rodon has came back to reality. He's now just 4-4 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in 9 starts. He's 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Give me the Phillies -115! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-31-22 | Padres v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE WEEK (Cardinals -120) I'll take my chances with the Cardinals as a -120 home favorite against the Padres. St Louis took the series opener 6-3 on Monday and are now 7-3 over their last 10 games. Hard to not like the Cardinals on Tuesday, as they will have Adam Wainwright on the mound and San Diego will turn to Blake Snell. Wainwright has pitched effectively in 2022, posting a 3.12 ERA in 9 starts. He didn't have near his best stuff in his last start at home against the Brewers and still held Milwaukee to just 3 ER in 5 innings. Big key here is he's facing a Padres lineup that has struggled to score here of late. San Diego is averaging just 3.6 runs/game over their last 7 and have scored 4 or fewer in 7 straight. Snell has made just 2 starts for San Diego and given up 6 ER on 6 hits and 5 BBs in 9 innings of work. Snell figures to have his work cut out for him here, as the Cardinals come in averaging 5.8 runs/game vs left-handed starters this season. Give me St Louis -120! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-30-22 | Braves v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Over/Under MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 8.5) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Monday's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Braves. This to me is a very good starting pitching matchup. Arizona will have their best starter on the mound in Zac Gallen. He's got a strong 2.22 ERA and a sensational 0.828 WHIP over 8 starts. His lone start against Atlanta came last season and he held the Braves to just 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings. The big value with the total comes from Atlanta sending out Spencer Strider for his first big league start. Those that don't know, Strider is one of the Braves top young arms. He's been outstanding out of the pen this year, posting a 2.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He's also racked up a staggering 37 K's in 24 1/3 innings. He's probably not going to go deep into this game, but that's not a big concern. Braves' relievers this year have posted a combined 3.41 ERA and 1.205 WHIP. For whatever reason those guys out of the pen have been at their best on the road with a 1.95 ERA and 1.098 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 8.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-29-22 | Yankees +132 v. Rays | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
MLB Situational Money Line MASSACRE (Yankees +132) I'll gladly take my chances with the Yankees as a +132 road dog against the Rays in Sunday's series finale between these two AL East rivals. Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan has pitched extremely well in 2022. He's got a 2.06 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in 9 starts. A big reason why the Rays are getting so much love from the books in this one. Thing is, he's got a 5.84 ERA and 1.784 WHIP in 3 career starts vs the Yankees. Luis Severino will go for New York. He's been every bit as good as McClanahan of late, posting a 2.04 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also got a 2.81 ERA in 3 road starts this year and is 7-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 10 career starts vs the Rays. Give me the Yankees +132! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-28-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -105 | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
MLB Late Night Money Line MASSACRE (Angels -105) I'll take my chances with the Angels as a slim -105 home favorite against the Blue Jays. Great price here to back LA at home. Angels are going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after losing their last 3. They got just the guy to get them back on track with Michael Lorenzen set to make his 7th start. Lorenzen has a 3.05 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in 7 starts. He's got a 2.38 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 4 home starts. Yusei Kikuchi will start for the Blue Jays. He's also pitched well this year, but has really struggled vs the Angels. He's made 7 starts and his team has won just 1, as he's posted a 10.62 ERA and 2.259 WHIP. Give me the Angels -105! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-28-22 | Cubs v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK (Under 8.5) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Saturday's cross-town matchup between the Cubs and White Sox. Love the pitching matchup in this one. Cubs will give the ball to Keegan Thompson, while the White Sox turn to veteran Johnny Cueto. Thompson has made 2 starts and pitched well, giving up just 2 ER in 9 innings of work. Cueto on the other hand hasn't allowed a run in his first 2 starts of 2022. He's thrown 6 scoreless innings in both starts, including his last start at New York against a loaded Yankees lineup. Look for both teams to struggle to score in this one. Give me the UNDER 8.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-28-22 | Brewers -110 v. Cardinals | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Brewers -110) I'll take my chances with the Brewers as a slim -110 road favorite against the Cardinals on Saturday. These two have split the first two games in this series with Milwaukee winning 4-3 on Thursday and St Louis winnings 4-2 on Friday. The edge in game 3 of this 4 game series goes to the Brewers. Milwaukee will have Adiran Houser on the mound. He's got a strong 2.98 ERA in 8 starts and a 2.25 ERA over his last 3 outings. Houser also seems to always pitch well against the Cardinals, as he enters with a 2.44 ERA in 9 career starts vs St Louis. Cardinals will be starting Matthew Liberatore. He's making his second start after making his first ever MLB start last Saturday at Pittsburgh. It wasn't a pretty outing for Libertore, as he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits with 2 BBs in 4 2/3 inning. That was against a bad Pirates offense. Give me the Brewers -110! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-27-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals +130 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 130 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
NL Central PLAY OF THE MONTH (Cardinals +130) I'll take my chances with St. Louis as a +130 home dog against the Brewers on Friday. Milwaukee was able to sneak out a 4-3 win in Game 1 of their 4-game series on Thursday. Cardinals have to be kicking themselves after that loss, as they left 11 guys on base. St Louis has too much offensive fire-power to be kept in check for long and I like them to bounce back here. Milwaukee is going to have Brandon Woodruff on the mound. Woodruff has been hit or miss all season. He's pitched well in his last 2 starts, giving up just 2 ER in 11 innings, but it's come against the Marlins and Nationals. He's still got a mere 4.76 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 8 starts overall. Woodruff is also just 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.059 WHIP in 4 road starts. Cardinals will turn to Dakota Hudson. He's 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 8 starts. The value with Hudson is at home, where he's been a different guy. Hudson has a 1.80 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 3 home starts. All 3 resulting in St Louis wins. Give me the Cardinals +130! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-25-22 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
MLB Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's AL West matchup between the Angels and Rangers. This is a sneaky good pitching matchup. Texas' will send out Glenn Otto, who has a 2.81 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 3 road starts. Last time out, he gave up just 2 runs in 6 innings at Houston. Reid Detmers will get the start for Los Angeles. He's coming off a subpar outing at Texas, but that was to be expected in his first start following his no hitter against the Rays were he threw 108 pitches (88 was his previous high). Detmers has had a full 7 days off since his last start and owns a 1.96 ERA and 0.565 WHIP over 4 home starts this season. Give me the UNDER 8.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-24-22 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
MLB Situational Run Line MASSACRE (Twins -1.5, -114) I'll take my chances with the Twins on the -1.5 run line at home against the Tigers on Tuesday. Minnesota took the series opener on Monday 5-4 in dramatic fashion. After jumping out to a 4-0 lead in the 1st, Detroit tied it up, only for the Twins to walk it off in the bottom of the 9th. That's now 5 straight wins for Minnesota. I like the Twins to stay hot and win here by at least 2 runs. Minnesota will have Sonny Gray on the mound, who is quietly having a good start to the 2022 season. Gray has only made 5 starts, but has a sharp 3.48 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in those 5 outings. He's got an even better 2.51 ERA over his last 3 starts and a strong 2.95 ERA in 7 career starts vs the Tigers. Detroit is countering with Beau Brieske. The 24-year-old rookie is 0-3 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.329 WHIP in 5 starts. He's got a 5.87 ERA in 3 road outings and a 6.06 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Twins are 16-4 at home against Detroit over the last 3 seasons. Give me Minnesota -1.5, -114! Confidence Rating: 5 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-23-22 | Blue Jays v. Cardinals -112 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Cardinals -112) I'll take my chances with St Louis as a slim -112 home favorite against the Blue Jays in Monday's series opener. Cardinals are fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Pirates, which they capped off with a 18-4 thrashing of Pittsburgh on Sunday. St Louis racked up 20 hits in the series finale and have now recorded 10 or more hits in 6 straight games. Toronto's offense is the exact opposite right now. Blue Jays just can't get anything going at the plate. Toronto has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 straight. Blue Jays have reached double-digit hits just twice in their last 20 games. You also have to give the Cardinals a big edge on the mound with them sending out Miles Mikolas and the Blue Jays going with Jose Berrios. Mikolas has a 1.68 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in 8 starts. Berrios has a 4.83 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in 8 starts (6.43 ERA in 4 road starts). Give me the Cardinals -112! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-22-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Sunday's series finale between the Cubs and Diamondbacks. These two have put up some big offensive numbers the last two days, but yesterday's 7-6 final was extremely misleading. The two teams had combined for just 4 runs going into the 7th inning. Arizona put up a 3 spot in the 8th and then the two scored a combined 5 runs in the 10th. Great bounce back spot here for Dbacks starter Merrill Kelly after he was torched for 8 runs in 2 innings of his last start against the Dodgers. That's going to happen against that LA offense to the best starters. Kelly was in the Cy Young talks before that outing. I really like him to pitch well here. Cubs will turn to Wade Miley. He's only made 2 starts, but has been rock solid. Last time out he allowed just 1 hit over 7 scoreless innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-22-22 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
MLB Situational Run Line MASSACRE (Brewers -1.5, -120) I'll gladly take my chances with the Brewers on the -1.5 run line at home against the Nationals on Sunday. We cashed Milwaukee on the -1.5 run line Saturday, as they won 5-1. Brewers have now outscored the Nationals 12-1 in the first 2 games of this series. Washington has also now scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 9 games. Hard to see this being one of those games they put it together at the plate. Brewers will have Freddy Peralta on the mound, who has really pitched well of late. Peralta has a 2.04 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in his last 3 starts. As for Milwaukee's offense, we should expect more of the same from a team that has scored 5 or more in each of their last 3. Nats are starting Aaron Sanchez, who has a 7.94 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in 5 starts overall and a 9.00 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in 3 road outings. Give me the Brewers -1.5, -120! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-21-22 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 110 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
MLB Run Line MASSACRE (Brewers -1.5, +110) I'll take my chances with the Brewers on the -1.5 run line as they play host to the Nationals on Saturday. Milwaukee is a massive favorite here for good reason. Brewers will have Brandon Woodruff on the mound, while Washington gives the ball to Pat Corbin. Woodruff comes into this game with a poor 5.35 ERA and 1.366 WHIP, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Woodruff hasn't been a completely different pitcher at home than on the road. He's 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.660 WHIP in 3 home starts. All 3 of those wins coming by 2 or more runs. Corbin has made 8 starts for the Nationals and they have lost all 8. It's not bad luck. Corbin has a 6.28 ERA and 1.681 WHIP. Of those 8 starts, 7 have come by 2 or more. Give me the Brewers -1.5, +110! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-20-22 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
MLB Late Night Total No-Brainer (Under 7.5) I'll gladly take my chances on the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's late night NL West showdown between the Giants and Padres. These two scored a combined 2 runs in the series opener yesterday and that's now 3 straight games for San Diego that have seen 3 or fewer runs scored. Hard to not expect more of the same with Sean Manaea on the mound for the Padres and Jake Junis going for the Giants. Manaea has a 2.70 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in 4 road starts. Junis hasn't had his best stuff in either of his first 2 starts and still has allowed just 4 runs in 10 2/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-18-22 | Giants -151 v. Rockies | 3-5 | Loss | -151 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
MLB Smart Money Vegas Insider (Giants -151) I'll take my chances with the Giants as a -151 road favorite against the Rockies. San Francisco has won each of the first 2 games of this series behind their offense. Giants scored 7 runs in a win on Monday and hung a 10-spot in a win yesterday. San Francisco has now scored 6 or more runs in 7 of their last 8 games. No reason to believe that won't continue against the Rockies Kyle Freeland, who has a 6.66 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 5 home starts this year. Logan Webb will go for San Francisco. The ace hasn't pitched great so far in 2022, but is 5-1 with a 3.48 ERA in 7 starts. He was sharp in his last outing, giving up just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings at St Louis. Webb just needs to be decent for SF to finish off the sweep of Colorado. Give me the Giants -151! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-17-22 | Braves v. Brewers -110 | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
MLB Money Line Massacre (Brewers -110) I will gladly take my chances with the Brewers as a mere -110 home favorite against the Braves. Milwaukee should be a much bigger favorite here. Brewers will have Adrian Houser on the mound. He's got a mediocre 3.86 ERA in 6 starts, but owns a strong 2.70 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 3 home outings. Atlanta is going with Tucker Davidson, who will be making his first start of 2022 and first appearance in a game since April 11. In his lone appearance, he wasn't good. Davidson gave up 5 runs in 2 1/3 innings against a pretty bad Nationals lineup. Give me the Brewers -110! Confidence Rating: 5 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-17-22 | Mariners +123 v. Blue Jays | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
MLB Situational Vegas Insider (Mariners +123) I'll gladly take my chances with the Mariners as a +123 road dog against the Blue Jays. Feels like Toronto is getting a little too much respect just cause they are off a win and playing at home. No way can I pass up on getting Seattle's Logan Gilbert at this price. Gilbert is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.105 WHIP in 7 starts. He's also got a 0.84 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 4 road outings. Toronto is going with Jose Berrios, who has not lived up to the hype in 2022. Berrios has a 5.82 ERA and 1.559 WHIP in 7 starts. He's not trending well either, as he owns a 6.89 ERA and 1.532 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Give me the Mariners +123! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-16-22 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total No-Brainer (Braves/Brewers UNDER 8)Â *Analysis Coming*Â Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-16-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 113 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Marlins -1.5, +113) I will gladly take my chances with the Marlins on the -1.5 run line Monday. Miami has a big time edge on the mound. Marlins will have Sandy Alcantara on the mound. He's been rock solid thru his first 7 starts of 2022, posting a 2.74 ERA and 1.219 WHIP. He's also facing a Nationals lineup that has scored 1 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 games. Aaron Sanchez will start for Washington and it's been a tough go for him in 2022. Sanchez has a dreadful 7.58 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 4 starts. This is a plus matchup for that Miami offense. Best part is we don't need them to go off to cash this ticket. Give me the Marlins -1.5, +113! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-15-22 | Blue Jays -114 v. Rays | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
AL East Money Line PLAY OF THE WEEK (Blue Jays -114) I love the value here with the Blue Jays as a short road favorite against the Rays. Toronto was able to snap their 5-game losing streak with a 5-1 win on Saturday and I like them to build off of that behind one of their aces in Alek Manoah. He's got Cy Young caliber stuff and we have seen it so far in 2022. Manoah is 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in 6 starts. He's also 3-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in 4 career starts vs the Blue Jays. Give me Toronto -114! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-14-22 | Reds -107 v. Pirates | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
NL Central PLAY OF THE MONTH (Reds -107) I love the Reds on the money line Saturday. Cincinnati is finally playing some decent baseball. The Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games after starting the year 4-23. I think there's tremendous value with them at just -107 in this one. Cincinnati will have Luis Castillo on the mound. He just made his season debut last week against the Brewers. It wasn't his best outing, giving up 3 runs on 3 hits with 3 walks in 4 2/3 innings, but there figured to be some rust. I expect him to be much better in this one. He's facing a bad Pirates offense that has scored a mere 8 runs total in their last 4 games. You also have to like the Reds to stay hot at the plate against Pittsburgh's Zach Thompson. In 5 starts, Thompson has a 7.45 ERA and 1.759 WHIP. He did just throw 5 shutout innings at the Reds in his last start, but Pittsburgh still lost that game 3-7. Just given the overall body of work of Thompson and the Reds resurgence at the plate, chances are he struggles. GIve me the Reds -107! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-13-22 | Astros -151 v. Nationals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
MLB Interleague PLAY OF THE WEEK (Astros -151) I'll gladly take my chances with the Astros at -151. Houston has won 9 straight behind a remarkable run of pitching. Both from their starters and their relievers. The Astros have officially (had that suspended game vs Twins) thrown 3 straight shutouts and have not allowed more than 2 runs in any game during their win streak. When the other team can't score, it's pretty easy to win games. Houston's offense figures to do something here. Washington's Josiah Gray has a mediocre 3.45 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in 6 starts. It's also worth noting he's really struggled at home, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. Astros' starter Framber Valdez has a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in 4 road starts. Give me Houston -151! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-12-22 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 8.5) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's matchups between the Twins and Astros. Houston will have Luis Garcia on the mound, while Minnesota gives the rock to Josh Winder. These are not starters the general public sees as elite, but they are off to really good starts in 2022 and that's where I feel the value comes from. Garcia has made 5 starts and has posted a 3.45 ERA with a sensational 0.872 WHIP. He's really been good on the road, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two starts. Winder's only made 2 starts, but he's been nearly perfect, giving up 0 ER on just 5 hits and 1 BB with 15 K's in 12 innings. Give me the UNDER 8.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10 |
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05-11-22 | Red Sox +115 v. Braves | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
MLB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Red Sox +115) I will gladly take my chances with the Red Sox as a road dog against the Braves on Wednesday. Boston put an end to their 5-game losing streak with a 9-4 win in yesterday's series opener with Atlanta. It was a big offensive night for the Red Sox, who had scored just 10 runs total in their previous 5 games combined. I like Boston to stay hot at the plate in this one, as Atlanta Ian Anderson has not been sharp to start 2022. Anderson has a 4.01 ERA and 1.378 WHIP in 5 starts. He's got a 2.76 ERA in his last 3 starts, despite giving up 14 hits and 9 walks in 16 1/3 innings during this stretch (helped he's faced the Mets, Rangers and Marlins in those 3 starts). Boston will have Nathan Eovaldi on the mound. He's been outstanding so far, posting a 2.94 ERA and 1.069 WHIP in 6 starts. Give me the Red Sox +115! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-11-22 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -109 | 11-3 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Diamondbacks -109) I will gladly take my chances with the Diamondbacks at basically even money at home against the Marlins on Wednesday. It just feels like the perception is that these are two bad teams and in the end that may be the case. However, right now Arizona is playing like a playoff contender and the Marlins are playing like a bottom feeder. Dbacks have won 9 of their last 11, while Miami has lost 9 of their last 10. I also give Arizona a huge edge on the mound in this one. Diamondbacks will send out Merrill Kelly, who is one of the more underrated starters out there right now. Kelly has put up Cy Young like numbers to start the season, posting a 1.22 ERA and 1.027 WHIP in 6 starts. Miami's Sany Alcantara has a respectable 3.03 ERA, but owns a sub-par 1.318 WHIP. Control has been a major issue for Alcantara, as he's now issued 16 walks in 35 2/3 innings. He's also got a 4.41 ERA and 1.591 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Give me the Diamondbacks -109! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-10-22 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Marlins. I just don't see a lot of runs being scored with the two guys who are starting this game. Miami's Jesus Luzardo has really been impressive early on. He had one sub-par outing against the Cardinals. The rest have been great. In 4 of his 5 starts he's given up 2 or fewer runs. He's also making a lot of guys swing and miss. He's got 35 K's in 26 1/3 innings. Madison Bumgarner is no longer overpowering hitters, but almost feels like the lack of strikeouts have him way undervalued. He's sitting there with a 1.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 6 starts. Having pitched just 1 inning (was ejected from his last start) since 4/29, he should be in prime form tonight. Give me the UNDER 8! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-10-22 | Astros v. Twins +125 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Twins +125) I will gladly take my chances with the Twins as a +125 home dog against the Astros. I get Houston will have their ace Justin Verlander on the mound, but you could argue that the Twins Joe Ryan has been every bit as good as Verlander, if not better. Ryan just isn't a household name yet, which is why we are getting such a great price on Minnesota here. Ryan is 3-1 with a 1.63 ERA and 0.831 WHIP in 5 starts. This is also a Twins team that is playing some really good baseball, as they come in having won 3 straight and are 14-3 over their last 17 games. Give me the Twins +125! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners -118 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Mariners -118) I will gladly take my chances with the Mariners as a small home favorite against the Phillies on Monday. Seattle was able to snap their 6-game losing streak with a 2-1 win over the Rays on Sunday. I not only think the Mariners will use that momentum from that win, but we are also getting great value with Seattle because of how poorly they had been playing. Philly hasn't been playing much better of late. Phillies have lost 5 of their last 6 games and all but one of those was at home. Never easy for an east coast team in that first game going out for a west coast trip. Mariners also have the edge on the mound. Seattle's Chris Flexen may be 1-4, but owns a strong 3.10 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in his 5 starts. He's also got a 2.77 ERA in 2 home starts and a 1.93 ERA in his last 3 outings. Phillies will counter with Ranger Suarez, who has a 4.63 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in 5 starts. Give me the Mariners -118! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-08-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -143 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
MLB Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR (Diamondbacks -143) I will gladly take my chances with the Diamondbacks as a -143 home favorite on the money line Sunday. Arizona has been playing much better baseball of late. Diamondbacks are 8-3 over their last 11 games. Arizona has a massive edge on the mound in this game. The Diamondbacks will turn to Zac Gallen. All Gallen has done in 4 starts is post a 1.27 ERA and 0.703 WHIP. In his two home starts (vs Dodgers & Mets), he's given up just 1 run on 4 hits with 12 K's in 11 innings. Colorado will counter with German Marquez. He's been downright awful to start the year. Marquez has a 6.92 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in 5 starts. In his last 3 outings he's given up 18 runs on 25 hits in just 14 2/3 innings of work. Give me the Diamondbacks -143! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-07-22 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE WEEK (Twins -1.5, +105) I will gladly take my chances with the Twins on the -1.5 run line on Saturday. Oakland is the ideal team to play against on the run line, as they just can't score. The A's have scored 3 or fewer runs in 12 of their last 15 games. So while Twins starter Chris Paddack isn't a starter I'm super excited about backing, I love him to pitch well against this Oakland lineup. Paddack has been decent, as he owns a 3.15 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 4 starts. Key here is the Twins offense not letting us down again. That shouldn't be a problem with James Kaprielian getting the start for the A's. Kaprielian has only made one appearance this year and that was a start on May 1st. He didn't last long, as he was pulled after giving up 4 runs on 3 hits and 4 BBs in just 2 innings of work. Give me the Twins -1.5, +105! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Friday's matchup between Colorado and Arizona. I think a lot of people think the Rockies are this strong offensive team because of all the runs they score at home, which in turn creates value when they are on the road. Colorado is only scoring 3.1 runs/game away from home. Arizona can't score at home. Dbacks are averaging just 2.9 runs/game at home in 2022. We also got two really good and very underrated starters going in Chad Kuhl and Merrill Kelly. Kuhl has a 1.90 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in 4 starts. Kelly has a 1.27 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 5 starts. UNDER is 4-0 in Kuhl's 4 starts and 4-1 in Kelly's 5 starts. Give me the UNDER 8.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-06-22 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
MLB Situational Run Line MASSACRE (Twins -1.5, +122) I will gladly take my chances with the Twins on the -1.5 run line at +122. Minnesota is coming in off back-to-back losses at Baltimore to close out their road trip, but they are still an impressive 11-3 over their last 14 games. A's on the other hand have lost 6 straight and have had a hard time getting their offense going. Oakland has scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Minnesota will have a guy not a lot of people are familiar with in Josh Winder on the mound, which I feel is getting us a better price than we should. Winder made his first MLB start last week and gave up just 2 hits with 7 K's in 6 scoreless innings on the road against the Rays. This has blowout written all over it. Give me the Twins -1.5, +122! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-05-22 | Blue Jays -141 v. Guardians | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -141 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Smart Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Blue Jays -141) I got no problem laying a little juice with the Blue Jays, as they get ready to open their 3-game road series with the Guardians. Toronto has a big edge on the mound. They will give the ball to Jose Berrios, who after a slow start has looked like the ace the Blue Jays envisioned. Berrios has a 1.93 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Guardians will counter with Aaron Civale, who has looked a bit lost on the mound in 2022. Civale has an atrocious 10.68 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in 4 starts. In his last 2 outings, he's given up 12 runs on 14 hits in just 7 innings of work. The other big thing with betting against Cleveland is the spot. The Guardians could have a tough time bouncing back after playing a doubleheader on Wednesday against the Padres. Two really taxing games (lost 4-5 and won 6-5). Give me the Blue Jays -141! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-04-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | 4-18 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
MLB Run Line MASSACRE (Brewers -1.5, -115) Until we see something out of this Reds team, I think you have to keep looking for ways to fade them. We played and won on the -1.5 run line with Milwaukee yesterday and will fire right back with them on the run line today. Brewers have been playing well. Milwaukee is 8-2 in their last 10. The numbers aren't great for today's starter Freddy Peralta, but he's coming off two strong outings. He gave up just 1 run on 3 hits in a start at Philly and then threw 6 scoreless innings at Pittsburgh. Reds will have Vladimir Gutierrez on the mound. He's been downright awful in his 4 starts with a 7.41 ERA and 1.941 WHIP in 17 innings of work. He's walked 13 hitters in his last 12 2/3 innings and only struckout 7 during this stretch. Give me the Brewers -1.5, -115! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-04-22 | Angels v. Red Sox -110 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Red Sox -110) I will gladly take my chances with Boston at basically even money at home against the Angels. Red Sox won Game 1 of the series 4-0 with LA having Syndergaard on the mound. This time around the Angels will have the likes of Reid Detmers starting. He's got a 5.19 ERA in 4 starts and in his lone road outing this season, he gave up 5 runs on 6 hits in 3 1/3 innings at Texas. One thing to keep in mind with Boston and them being just 10-14 to start the season. They have played 16 of their first 24 games on the road. I just think it has them way undervalued, especially with how good their starter, Garrett Whitlock, has been. He's not allowed an ER in 7 innings with a pretty good 9-2 K/BB ratio. Give me the Red Sox -110! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-03-22 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10) I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 10 in Tuesday's series opener between the Rockies and Nationals. Washington's offense hasn't been great overall so far in 2022, but they are coming off their best 3-game series at San Francisco. Nationals put up 25 runs on 35 hits against the Giants and did so with SF sending out a pretty good trio of starters in Wood, Webb and Cobb. Not only does that offense get the benefit of hitting at the best offensive park in baseball at Coors Field, but the Rockies German Marquez has a 5.57 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 4 starts and a 7.71 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Rockies just scored 24 runs, hitting double-digits twice, in their 3 game series at home against the Reds. They are hitting .287 with a .356 OBP as a team at home this year. Washington's Erik Fedde has a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 4 starts and that's come against the Marlins, Dbacks, Pirates and Mets. Give me the OVER 10! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-03-22 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
MLB Run Line MASSACRE (Brewers -1.5, -120) I know the Reds aren't going to be this bad going forward, but until they show us something, I don't know how you don't keep betting against them. They have the worst pitching staff in baseball with a 6.15 ERA (next worst is 5.08) and they can't score runs. Cincinnati scored a total of 8 runs in 3 games at Coors Field in their last series. Milwaukee was shutout in their last game on Sunday, but had scored 20 runs on 25 hits in their previous 2. They should get right back on track offensively against Cincinnati's Tyler Mahle, who has a 5.24 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in 4 starts. Brewers will counter with one of the best starters in baseball in Brandon Woodruff. He's got an ugly looking 5.30 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in 4 starts, but all the damage came in his first outing. He's got a 2.40 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in his last 3 starts and has not allowed a run in his 2 home starts this season. Give me the Brewers -1.5, -120! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-02-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +109 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
MLB Situational Money Line MASSACRE (Blue Jays +109) I will gladly take my chances with Toronto as a home dog against the Yankees in Monday's series opener. I've been backing Toronto with some success here of late and I just can't pass up getting them as a home dog. New York's Jordan Montgomery has an impressive 2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 4 starts, but 3 of those starts were against the Orioles and Tigers. The other was against the Red Sox and he gave up 3 runs in 3 1/3 innings. I trust Toronto's Ross Stripling a lot more in this spot. He's got a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 3 starts. Give me the Blue Jays +109! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-01-22 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
MLB OVER/UNDER Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10.5) I will take my chances with the Rockies and Reds going OVER the total of 10.5 on Sunday. I've not played many overs this year, but this is one that I like quite a bit. You always feel a lot better about needing runs in games played at Coors Field. Even more so when you got a sub-par pitching matchup like we have in this one. Cincinnati is going with Reiver Sanmartin, who is 0-3 with a 16.04 ERA and 2.533 WHIP in 3 starts. He's given up at least 5 runs in each of his outings. Colorado will have Kyle Freeland on the mound. He's 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in 4 starts. His only decent outing has came on the road. He's got a 7.71 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in his 3 home starts. Even a bad Reds offense should manage at least 5 runs in this one. Give me the OVER 10.5! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-01-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays -138 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
MLB Situational Money Line MASSACRE (Blue Jays -138) I will gladly take my chances with Toronto at less than a -150 home favorite with Kevin Gausman on the mound. In 4 starts this season, Gausman has a 2.19 ERA and 1.013 WHIP. That alone is impressive, but it's not his most impressive stat line. Gausman has pitched 24 2/3 innings and has not walked a single batter and has struck out 31 in the process (8 or more K's in each of his last 3 starts). It might appear that Houston's Framber Valdez can go toe to toe with Gausman. He's got a decent 3.15 ERA in his first 4 starts. Valdez also has a very below average 1.400 WHIP and is trending in the wrong direction with a 4.73 ERA and 1.875 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Give me the Blue Jays -138! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-30-22 | Reds v. Rockies -132 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
MLB Prime Time Money Line MASSACRE (Rockies -132) I will take a shot with the Rockies as a -132 home favorite against the Reds. We cashed on Colorado last night, as I just felt the books were undervaluing this team at home against an awful Cincinnati team. It's really more of the same in this one. Reds can't score runs and it's just hard to win games at Coors Field when you don't pose a threat offensively. Cincinnati's also facing arguably Colorado's best starter to this point of the 2022 season. Chad Kuhl has a 1.10 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in 3 starts. While he has got to start 2 of the 3 on the road, he threw 6 scoreless innings in his lone home start. Give me the Rockies -132! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-30-22 | Twins v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 9-1 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) I will take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Saturday's AL matchup between the Rays and Twins. Just love the pitching matchup in his one and runs aren't easy to come by at Tampa Bay. Rays will have Shane McClanahan on the mound. He's got a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in 4 starts. Arguably his best outing coming in his last start, where he allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings at home against the Red Sox. Chris Archer will get the ball for the Twins. He still walks too many guys, but he's only given up 4 ER on 9 hits in 11 1/3 innings. Give me the UNDER 7.5! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-30-22 | Astros v. Blue Jays -129 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
AL East Money Line PLAY OF THE MONTH (Blue Jays -129) I got no problem laying the -129 with the Blue Jays at home against the Astros on Saturday. Two starters here going in different directions. Houston's Luis Garcia threw 4 shutout innings in his first (against bad Dbacks offense), then gave up 3 runs in 5 2/3 innings at home against the Angels and then 5 runs in 6 innings against these same Blue Jays. Toronto's hitters will have an even better idea of what to expect seeing him again in such a short notice. Blue Jays will counter with Jose Berrios. He only recorded 1 out in his first start, giving up 4 in a 1/3 of an innings. He allowed just 3 in 5 innings in his next start, 1 in 6 in the following start and most recently 2 runs in 7 innings at home against the Red Sox. Give me the Blue Jays -129! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-29-22 | Twins +120 v. Rays | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
MLB Situational Money Line MASSACRE (Twins +120) I'll take my chances with the Twins as a +120 road dog against the Rays on Friday. Minnesota is red-hot coming into this series. They just swept a 3-game series at Detroit and have now won 7 straight overall. Who better to keep that streak alive than Dylan Bundy, who has give up 1 ER in 15 1/3 innings this season. Not to mention he's got a sensational 12/1 K/BB ratio in his 3 starts. Corey Kluber will go for the Rays and he's got a very respectable 3.68 ERA in 3 starts. However, Kluber's got an awful 1.568 WHIP in his 3 starts. Give me the Twins +120!  Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-29-22 | Phillies +110 v. Mets | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Phillies +110) I will gladly take my chances with the Phillies as a +110 road dog against the Mets in Friday's series opener between these two NL East rivals. These two teams already played one series in Philly and NY took 2 of 3. Phillies will definitely want to get some revenge here and they got just the guy on the mound to do it in Aaron Nola. Nola has a so-so 3.74 ERA in 4 starts, but he's got a really strong 0.877 WHIP. He's also coming off his best start, giving up just 1 hit and striking out 9 in 7 shutout innings against the Brewers. Give me the Phillies +110! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-28-22 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5) Love the value here with the UNDER 8.5 in Thursday's game between the Cubs and Braves. Atlanta's offense has gone cold of late and will be up against one of Chicago's better starters in Drew Smyly. In 3 starts, Smyly has a 2.45 ERA and 1.022 WHIP. He's not allowed a run in 9 2/3 innings over 2 road starts. Cubs offense has failed to deliver more times than not and will be up against a red-hot Kyle Wright, who has a 1.06 ERA and 0.765 WHIP in his first 3 starts. What really stands out about Wright's strong start, is the 26 K's he racked up in just 17 innings of work. Hard time seeing the Cubs offense do much of anything in this one. Play the UNDER 8.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-28-22 | Mariners v. Rays -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rays -130) I will gladly take my chances with the Rays as a -130 home favorite against the Mariners on Thursday. I just feel like Tampa Bay is a bit undervalued in this spot. In large part to the fact that they are sending out an "Opener" in the likes of Jeffrey Springs. Not having a top notch starter isn't a big deal for the Rays with their bullpen. On the flip side of this, Seattle will turn to Chris Flexen. While Flexen has a respectable 3.64 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 3 starts, the Mariners have lost 2 of his 3 outings. I think it's also worth noting that Flexen struggled in his lone road start, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in just 4 1/3 innings at Minnesota. He's also got a 6.51 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in 2 career starts vs Tampa Bay. Give me the Rays -130! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-27-22 | Guardians v. Angels UNDER 7.5 | 5-9 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 7.5) I'll gladly take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Wednesday's game between the Angels and Guardians. After that crazy hot start to the season, Cleveland's offense has completely fallen off a cliff. They have scored a mere 7 runs on 17 hits in their last 4 games combined, scoring a whopping 3 runs in their last 3 games. Now they face one of the best pitchers in the game in Shohei Ohtani, who has a ridiculous 26 K's in 14 1/3 innings of work. Key here is the Guardians also have a pretty good starter going in Zach Plesac, who has a 1.53 ERA and 1.075 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Getting to 3 runs is going to be a challenge for both of these teams. Give me the UNDER 7.5! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-27-22 | Padres -157 v. Reds | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Padres -157) I'll take my chances with the Padres on the money line as a decently priced road favorite against the Reds. This is far from a cheap price on San Diego, but I think there's definitely value here at this price. Padres have a massive edge on the mound in this game with them sending out Mackenzie Gore and the Reds turning to Vladimir Gutierrez. Gore is considered one of the top pitching prospects in the game and has not disappointed in his first two starts. He's allowed just 2 runs in 10 1/3 innings with 10 K's in the process. He's facing a Reds offense that is scoring 2.9 runs/game on the season and just 2.0 runs/game against left-handed starters this year. Gutierrez has a 5.54 ERA and 1.692 WHIP in 3 starts. In those 3 starts the Reds have been outscored 11-2. Give me the Padres -157! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-26-22 | Cubs v. Braves -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE MONTH (Braves -1.5, +120) I'll take my chances with the Braves at +120 on the -1.5 run line. Chicago got off to a better than expected start, but have quickly come back to reality. Cubs have lost 5 of their last 6. The offense had that 21 run outburst against the Pirates on Saturday, but came back and scored 3 the next day and have scored 3 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. I look for the Cubs offense to struggle in this one. Max Fried will be on the mound for Atlanta and he's coming off his best start in 2022. After giving up 7 ER on 15 hits in his first 2 starts, Fried went to LA and held the Dodgers to just 2 hits over 7 shutout innings. He's also 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in 3 career starts vs the Cubs. Marcus Stroman will be on the mound for Chicago. He had a great first start, but has given up 12 ER on 14 hits in 8 1/3 innings in his last 2 outings. Give me the Braves -1.5 (+120)! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-24-22 | Royals v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Money Line PLAY OF THE WEEK (Mariners -1.5, +120) I'm taking Seattle on the -1.5 run line at home against the Royals on Sunday. Mariners are one of the hottest teams in the league, as they come in having won 7 of their last 9. They beat KC 4-1 on Friday and then fired back with a 13-7 win on Saturday. Mariners are averaging 6.4 runs/game at home, while only giving up 3.4. They have also clobbered left-handed starters this year, averaging 7.7 runs/game with a .391 OBP and .505 SLG. Royals are sending out lefty Carlos Hernandez, who has giving up 7 runs on 14 hits with just 1 K in 8 2/3 innings this season. Mariners will have ace Robbie Ray on the mound. Give me Seattle -1.5, +120! Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-23-22 | Orioles v. Angels -1.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
MLB Late Night Run Line MASSACRE (Angels -1.5, -130) Usually you play the run line to get a team at + money, but sometimes there's value with taking a massive favorite and paying a little juice. That's what I'm doing with the Angels on Saturday. Instead of playing them around -230 on the money line, we take them at -1.5 with juice of just -130. I really don't think it's asking much of the Angels to win here by 2 or more with how bad Baltimore's offense has been and who LA has on the mound. Orioles are scoring just 2.2 runs/game and hitting .207 as a team in 2022 (only 1.6 runs/game on the road). That Baltimore offense will be up against Noah Syndergaard, who is off to a great start with a 1.59 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in his first 2 starts. I know the numbers look good for Orioles starter Spencer Watkins. He's got a 2.25 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in his 2 starts. However, he's been very fortunate. He's got a 4.06 FIP and 5.86 xFIP. Give me the Angels -1.5, -130! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-22-22 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 7.5) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 7.5 in Friday's AL Central showdown between the Twins and White Sox. I just don't see either of these teams generating many scoring chances. Chicago will have Michael Kopech on the mound and he's one of the bright young starters in the game. He's been outstanding to start 2022, posting a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in his first 2 starts. He's also facing a Twins offense that has scored just 4 runs in their last 3 games combined. Minnesota will counter with Bailey Ober, who has a respectable 3.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his first two start. Ober struggled some in his first outing against the Mariners, but bounced back and didn't give up an ER in 6 innings at Boston last time out. White Sox have scored 3 or fewer in 7 straight games and are hitting just .185 as a team vs left-handed starters this season. Give me the UNDER 7.5! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-22-22 | Brewers v. Phillies -119 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
MLB Money Line MASSACRE (Phillies -119) I will gladly take my chances with the Phillies as a short home favorite against the Brewers. I just think Milwaukee is a good fade here with an overvalued starter like Freddy Peralta on the mound. Peralta has really struggled in his first two starts, giving up 9 runs on 10 hits and 6 BBs in just 7 innings. Doesn't help he's facing a Phillies offense that has scored 14 runs on 23 hits in their last 2 games. Ranger Suarez will get the ball for Philly and while he too has struggled out of the gate, he was much better in his second start of the season. He's also going up against a Brewers offense that is averaging just 1.2 runs and hitting .177 as a team vs left-handed starters this season. Give me the Phillies -119! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-21-22 | Orioles v. A's -123 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
MLB Money Line MASSACRE (A's -123) I lost with the A's on Wednesday with my free pick. Just couldn't get anything from the A's offense, as Baltimore won the game 1-0. I'm going to fire right back with an even bigger bet on Oakland in the series finale on Thursday. I don't think the Orioles pitching can keep Oakland's offense in check like that in back to back games. Not with Tyler Wells getting the start. Wells has a 6.35 ERA and 1.764 WHIP in his first two starts. As for the Baltimore offense. There's no reason to not expect their struggles to continue. Baltimore has scored a total of 3 runs in their last 3 games and have scored 2 or fewer in 6 of their last 7. A's will also have a pretty good starter going. Paul Blackburn has a 1.80 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his first two starts. Both were on the road and against two of the better teams in the Blue Jays and Rays. Give me the A's -123! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-20-22 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals UNDER 8 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
MLB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 8) I think we are getting big time value with the UNDER at 8 in Wednesday's game between the Nationals and Diamondbacks. Arizona can't score. They have totaled just 1 run in their last 3 games and have scored 3 or fewer in 9 of their last 10 games. No reason to expect that to change in this one. Washington's Erick Fedde has allowed 2 runs in 5 innings in each of his first two starts. On the flip side of this I think Arizona's Merrill Kelly is one of the more underrated starters early on in 2022. Kelly has not allowed a run in two starts, striking out 13 in 9 1/3 innings. Those weren't some pushover opponents, as he's faced the Padres and Astros. Washington's offense isn't as bad as Arizona, but it's not very good. Nats are scoring just 2.5 runs/game at home. Play the UNDER 8! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-20-22 | Reds v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 105 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Padres -1.5, +105) I will take my chances with the Padres -1.5 on the run line at home against the Reds. Cincinnati has been pretty bad to start the season. Reds are 2-10 and are riding a 8-game losing streak. They just don't have enough offense or pitching to really be competitive. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 7 straight games and have recorded 7 or fewer hits in all but 1 game this season. I don't see that offense getting on track in this game. Padres will have one of their top young prospects on the mound in Mackenzie Gore, who pitched pretty well in his MLB debut last week. This is also a plus matchup for the Padres offense, as the Reds will send out Vladimir Gutierrez. In his first 2 starts, Gutierrez has a 5.40 ERA and 1.921 WHIP. Give me the Padres -1.5 (+105)! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-19-22 | Rangers v. Mariners -128 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
MLB Situational Money Line MASSACRE (Mariners -128) I'll gladly take my chances with the Mariners as a short -128 home favorite on the money line against the Rangers. Texas is a mere 2-7 to start the 2022 season. They come in having lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Rangers will have Jon Gray on the mound, who gave up 3 runs in 4 innings at Toronto in his first start. Texas' bullpen owns a 5.67 ERA. Seattle has scored 5 or more in 3 of their last 4. Robbie Ray goes for the Mariners. He had a poor second outing at Chicago against the White Sox, but was outstanding in his first start at Minnesota, giving up just 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings. I think Ray is going to bounce back here with a good outing. Give me the Mariners -128! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-19-22 | Angels v. Astros -147 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
AL West PLAY OF THE MONTH (Astros -147) I love the Astros at less than -150 on the money line at home against the Angels with what to me looks like a pretty big edge on the mound. Houston will send out Framber Valdez, who has a 0.93 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 2 starts. He's also 6-2 with a 3.51 ERA in 8 career starts vs LA. Angels will counter with Patrick Sandoval. He didn't allow an ER in 4 innings in his first start, but that came against an awful Marlins lineup. Sandoval is a mediocre starter at best. He's got an awful 8.56 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in 4 career starts vs Houston. Give me the Astros -147! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-18-22 | Phillies v. Rockies +152 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 152 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rockies +152) I love the Rockies at +152 at home against the Phillies. Colorado is a better team than what they get credit for. It's just hard for them to get a ton of praise with them being in the same division as the Dodgers, Giants and Padres. They are off to a 6-3 start, while the Phillies have a losing record at 4-6. Philly is getting way too much respect here because they have Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola has not looked like an ace in his first 2 starts. He's allowed 7 runs, 3 HRs in 9 1/3 innings over two starts against a couple soft-hitting teams in the A's and Mets. Coors Field isn't exactly the place you want to take the mound when you don't have your best stuff. Give me the Rockies +152! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-17-22 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
American League Run Line PLAY OF THE MONTH I love the Blue Jays on the -1.5 (-125) run line in Sunday's home game against the A's. Toronto will be locked in after dropping Saturday's game to Oakland, but even more than that is the edge the Blue Jays will have on the mound in this game. Toronto will send out Alek Manoah, who has looked like a legit Cy Young contender over his first two starts. Manoah has allowed just 1 run on a mere 2 hits with a staggering 17 K's in 13 innings of work. Oakland will counter with Adam Oller, who gave up 5 runs on 5 hits (2 HR) and 3 walks in just 1 1/3 innings in his first start of 2022. This has blowout written all over it. Give me the Blue Jays -1.5 (-125)! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-16-22 | Phillies v. Marlins -1.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
MLB Run Line MASSACRE I think we are getting big time value on the Marlins at basically 2 to 1 on the -1.5 run line. Miami has already won the first two games of this series and just had their best day at the plate of the 2022 season in Friday's 7-1 win. Good chance the offense stays hot against the Phillies' Ranger Suarez, who only made it 2 1/3 innings before getting yanked from his first start. Suarez gave up 3 runs on 5 hits with just 1 K. On the flip side, Trevor Rogers is a very underrated starter. He went on the road and held the Giants to just 2 ER in 5 innings in his first start. He'll face a Phillies offense that has been a bit boom or bust. Philly has scored 5 or more 3 times this season, but they have also scored 3 or fewer in 4 of their last 6. Give me the Marlins -1.5 (+195)! Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-16-22 | Giants v. Guardians -1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Saturday Night MLB CASH COW I really like Cleveland to win this game. You can play it safe and take the Guardians straight up on the money line, but I'm going for the big pay day and playing Cleveland on the -1.5 run line for a +181 payout. While San Francisco won the series opener 4-1 last night, that was more a result of who the Giants had on the mound. Rodon has been sensational in his first two starts. Guy has 21 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. Prior to facing Rodon the Indians offense had been scoring runs in bunches. They had 7, 10, 10 and 17 in their previous 4 games. Look for them to get back on track against the Giants Anthony Desclafani. Give me the Guardians -1.5 (+181)! Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-15-22 | Braves v. Padres -110 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER (Padres -110) I'll take my chances with the Padres as a slim -110 home favorite against the Braves. I think we are getting a massive discount on San Diego in this one. I don't care who is on the mound, -110 is good value with the Padres at home. I also think there's reason to be optimistic with who they are throwing, as MacKenzie Gore will make his big league debut. Gore isn't just a fill-in guy. He's been considered one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He looked really good in the spring and I think he's going to carry that over and make a big statement against the defending champs. Give me the Padres -110! |
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04-15-22 | Phillies v. Marlins -118 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Vegas Money Line MASSACRE (Marlins -118) I will gladly take my chances with Miami as a short -118 home favorite against the Phillies. Most are going to immediately look to take Philly as a dog against a Miami team that isn't expected to be very good. Marlins aren't as bad as what people think and they got momentum after taking the series opener 4-3 on Thursday. I also like who Miami has on the mound in Pablo Lopez. He allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 5 innings in his first start at San Francisco. He's also given up just 4 ER in his last 15 2/3 innings of work against the Phillies. Give me the Marlins -118! |
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04-14-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -120 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
50* (MLB) Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Rockies -120) I will gladly take my chances with the Rockies as a short -120 home favorite against the Cubs. Chicago managed just 4 runs in their short 2-game series at Pittsburgh and while they should be put up better numbers at Coors Field, I don't think they are going to be able to keep pace with the Rockies. Colorado is started the season 4-1 after taking 2 of 3 at home against the Dodgers and then sweeping their 2-game series at Texas. Rockies are averaging 6.3 runs/game and hitting .283 against left-handed starters this season. Cubs will have lefty Justin Steele on the mound. Kyle Freeland will start for the Rockies. He didn't have a great first outing, giving up 5 runs on 5 hits in 3 2/3 innings, but it came against a loaded Dodgers lineup. He did manage 6 K's in that outing. He's also got a 2.92 ERA and 0.973 WHIP over 4 career starts against the Cubs. Give me The Rockies -120! |
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04-13-22 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 4-6 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 9) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's game between the White Sox and Mariners. Seattle has struggled to score. They are only averaging 2.4 runs/game and are hitting .183 (29th) as a team. Their highest output of the season is 4 runs. So while we haven't seen Dallas Keuchel yet, you got to like his chances of keeping this Mariners offense in check. I also don't see the White Sox offense going off in this game. Seattle will have their new ace on the mound in Robbie Ray. He didn't disappoint in his first start, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits in 7 innings of a 2-1 win at Minnesota. Give me the UNDER 9! |
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04-13-22 | Astros v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER (Under 8.5) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Diamondbacks and Astros. This just feels like too big a number given the matchup. Arizona's offense has struggled to get going and that's putting in nicely. The Dbacks as a team have a .130 batting average, by far the worst in the game. Hard to see them getting on track against Houston's Framber Valdez. He allowed just 2 hits with 6 K's in 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his first start. The key here is I think Houston is also going to struggle to put up runs. Arizona's Merrill Kelly was sharp in his first start of 2022, striking out 7 in 4 scoreless innings. Houston is probably going to have a top tier offense, but right now they rank in the bottom half in both avg and OBP. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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04-13-22 | Cubs -119 v. Pirates | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
50* (MLB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Cubs -119) I will gladly lay -120 on the Cubs against the Pirates. Chicago is off to a surprising 3-1 start after taking 2 of 3 against the Brewers and then yesterday's series opener with the Pirates. Chicago is no longer a home run or bust lineup. While their middle of the pack with a .242 team batting average, they are 3rd in all of baseball with a .356 OBP. They are also throwing it well. As a staff they rank 4th in the MLB in ERA (2.50) and 5th in WHIP (1.03). Kyle Hendricks will be on the mound in this one and he was really good in his first start against Milwaukee. Hendricks allowed just 1 ER with 7 Ks in 5 1/3 innings. Give me the Cubs -119! |
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04-12-22 | Marlins v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR (Under 9.5) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 9.5 in Tuesday's interleague matchup between the Angels and Marlins. I think we have an under the radar pitching duel in this one with Miami's Jesus Luzardo and LA's Patrick Sandoval. Luzardo is a highly touted prospect that has been a bit of a disappointment. However, he's in his first season with the Marlins. There's been talks they have got him on track and it certainly appeared that way in spring training. Luzardo allowed just 1 ER in 11 2/3 innings of work, good for a 0.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. As for Sandoval, he's coming off a quietly good 2021 campaign, posting a 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 87 innings. Big plus for him here is he's facing a sub-par Marlins offense. Miami has scored 2 or fewer in 3 of 4 games. In the one game they eclipsed 2 with 5 in the opener against the Giants, they scored 3 of those runs in the Top of the 9th. Give me the UNDER 9.5! |
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04-12-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -114 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
50* (MLB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Yankees -114) I will gladly take the Yankees at a mere -114 on the money line. We had a monster bet against the Yankees yesterday with Toronto, but that was all about the value we were getting with Toronto starter Alek Manoah. He didn't disappoint, allowing just 1 hit over 6 scoreless innings. Today the script is flipt. New York has the underrated starter going in Nestor Cortez. He had a strong 2.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 93 innings in 2021. He also had a career-high 10.0 (K/9). Toronto's countering with Yusei Kikuchi, who I just can't get excited about. He's made 70 starts over the last 3 seasons and posted a 4.97 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. That was all with the Mariners. Hard to imagine those numbers are getting better starting the majority of his games against the stacked AL East. Give me the Yankees -114! |
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04-11-22 | Blue Jays +107 v. Yankees | Top | 3-0 | Win | 107 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
50* (MLB) - AL East PLAY OF THE MONTH (Blue Jays +107) I'll take my chances with Toronto at +107 on the money line, as they open up a 3-game series at the Yankees. I'm extremely high on Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah, who will take the mound in this one. He had a 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 20 starts last year and was outstanding in his tune-up during spring training, posting a 0.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 14 innings of work. I also think there's reason to be pessimistic on Yankees' starter Jameson Taillon. He had ankle surgery in October of last year and is still not 100%. Got to think he's going to be one a pretty short leash early on and he's facing arguably the best lineup in baseball with Toronto. This is also a minor letdown spot for New York, who just finished up a 3-game series with rival Boston. The finale of that series being the standalone game on Sunday Night Baseball. Give me the Blue Jays +107! |
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04-10-22 | White Sox -121 v. Tigers | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
50* (MLB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (White Sox -121) I'll take my chances with the White Sox as a slim -121 road favorite against the Tigers on Sunday. After watching the Tigers rally late to steal the series opener 5-4 on Friday, Chicago bounced back with a 5-2 win on Saturday. Hard to not like Chicago at this price with Michael Kopech on the mound. Kopech only made 4 starts in 44 appearances last year, but was one of the better pitchers for the White Sox, posting a 3.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 103 K's in a mere 69 1/3 innings pitched. Detroit will have Tarik Skubal on the mound. He's got a very mediocre 4.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 39 career appearances (36 starts). He's not had much luck against Chicago, posting a 6.50 ERA and 1.889 WHIP in 4 starts against the White Sox. Give me Chicago -121! |
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04-09-22 | Reds v. Braves OVER 10 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 10) I'll take my chances with the OVER 10 between the Braves and Reds Saturday. These two teams scored 9 runs on Thursday and then combined for 13 on Friday. Expect more of the same on Saturday, as the starting pitching is not nearly as strong with Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds) and Kyle Wright (Braves) on the mound. The wind will also be blowing out to left center at close to 15 mph, which figures to help push at least a couple balls over the fence. Play the OVER 10! |
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04-09-22 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
50* (MLB) Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Blue Jays -1.5, -105) I'll take my chances with Toronto winning by 2 or more runs at home against the Rangers. This Blue Jays lineup is going to score a ton of runs. Last night they were shutout in the first 3 innings before scoring in every inning the rest of the way. Toronto went from being down 0-7 to 7-7 by the 5th and wound up winning 10-8. I look for them to put up another big number at home against the Rangers' Dane Dunning. Last year Dunning went 0-7 with a 6.39 ERA in 13 road appearances (12 starts). Toronto will have Kevin Gausman on the mound. Gausman had a real breakout season in 2021, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 33 starts. Give me the Blue Jays -1.5 (-105)! |
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04-08-22 | Mariners v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
50* (MLB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 8) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 8 in Friday's AL matchup between the Twins and Mariners. You got the reigning AL Cy Young winner going for Toronto in Robbie Ray and one of my favorite breakout starters, Joe Ryan, on the mound for the Twins. On top of that, these are not going to be scoring conditions with winds at 15 mph and the Temp in the 40s. Runs are going to be hard to come by for both sides. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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04-07-22 | Mets v. Nationals +122 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Opening Day VEGAS INSIDER (Nationals +122) I'll take my chances with the Nationals as a home dog against the Mets on Opening Day. Washington might not have what it takes to win the NL East this year, but I do think this is going to be a much improved team from the one that finished last in the division in 2021 with a record of just 65-97. Nationals will have Patrick Corbin on the mound and there's a lot of hype in Washington with how Corbin has looked this spring. In 2019, Corbin won 14 games posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 33 starts. I think he's going to be closer to that guy than the one that had a 5.82 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 31 starts last year. Mets are giving the ball to Tylor Megill. Not because he's some future ace, deGrom is hurt and Scherzer isn't going to be ready to throw until Friday. The game simply fell on his day to throw. Not that he's not capable of being a decent starter, I just think the stage might be a little too much for him, especially on the road. Give me the Nationals +122! |
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros -124 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
50* (MLB) - Braves/Astros G6 MAX UNIT Top Play (Astros -124) I will gladly lay the -124 on the money line with the Astros in Game 6 of the World Series. Houston avoided elimination with a 9-5 win in Game 5 and I thing it's huge for this team that they got their offense going. The Astros' lineup definitely figures to get plenty of chances early to put up some runs, as the Braves will be sending out Max Fried. It's been a rough go of late for Fried in the postseason. He gave up 5 runs on 8 hits in 4 2/3 innings in his last start vs the Dodgers and then gave up 6 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings in Game 2 of this series. Houston will go with Luis Garcia. He's pitched much better in this last two starts, giving up just 1 run on 4 hits with 13 Ks in 9 1/3 innings of work. Give me the Astros -124! |
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10-20-21 | Astros +112 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 112 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Astros/Red Sox G5 Money Line MASSACRE (Astros +112) I see some decent value here with the Astros as a +112 road dog in Game 5 of the ALCS. Houston has all the momentum in the series after last night's 9-2 win over Boston. The Astros trailed 2-1 going into the 8th. They scored a run to tie it in the 8th then put up a 7 spot in the Top of the 9th. Instead of it being the Red Sox with a 3-1 advantage, its tied 2-2 with the Astros having a chance to now take a 3-2 lead back home for the final two in the series. I also think the starting pitching matchup is a bit of a toss up. Neither Houston's Framber Valdez or Boston's Chris Sale pitched well in Game 1. Both were only able to record 8 outs before getting the hook. One thing to note about Valdez is he's been a much better pitcher on the road than he has at home. He had a 3.45 ERA in 11 home starts and a 2.88 ERA in 11 road starts. He's also got a 2.12 ERA in 3 starts vs the Red Sox. All 3 this season and all 3 ended in a win for Houston. Give me the Astros +112! |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox +125 v. Astros | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Red Sox/Astros Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER (Red Sox +125) I think it's worth a roll of the dice to take a shot with Boston at +125 in Game 1 of the ALCS against the Astros. This line stinks. Everyone is picking Houston to win this series and here they are a short home favorite in Game 1 with Boston sending out Chris Sale who was awful in his only start vs the Rays in the ALDS. Sale gave up 5 runs on 4 hits in 1 inning, which is all he was able to get in before getting yanked. I think it says a lot about how much faith and trust the Red Sox have in Sale to bounce back. Last thing you want to do is just hand over a win in Game 1, especially when your best starter, Nathan Eovaldi, could take the mound on a standard 4 days of rest if they wanted. I also think you got to look at what this Boston offense was able to do in their win over the Rays. After getting shutout in the first game, they scored 14, 6 and 6 over the next 3 games. Houston's starter, Framber Valdez, has also not been throwing it great of late. He gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 4 1/3 innings in his only start vs the White Sox in their ALDS matchup. Give me the Red Sox +125! |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants -105 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Dodgers/Giants VEGAS INSIDER (Giants -105) I'm taking the Giants at basically a pick'em at home against the Dodgers. I get how good the Dodgers are, but San Francisco was every bit as good this year. It's just too good a price to pass up on the home team in a winner take all Game 5. I know both teams have great starters going, but how do you not bet the Giants with Logan Webb on the mound at Oracle Park. He's made 13 starts at home this season and the Giants have won all 13. He's got a 1.80 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in those 13 home starts. One of those was in Game 1, where SF won the game 4-0 behind 7 2/3 scorelessing innings and that was with Buehler on the mound for the Dodgers. Another thing to keep in mind with LA being such a public team and being such a massive favorite in so many games, the books know the public is going to eat up the Dodgers at this price. It's been a pretty telling sign when they do in fact make the line so low, as LA is just 7-14 this season when they are listed anywhere from a -125 favorite to a +125 dog. Give me the Giants -105! |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +109 | 0-4 | Win | 109 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
40* (MLB) - Dodgers/Giants Late Night SLAUGHTER (Giants +109) *Analysis Coming*Â |
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