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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-05-10 | St. Louis Rams v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 43.5 | 19-6 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
St Louis at Arizona
The Rams put up 36 points on a weak Denver defense last week and we expect a repeat performance here. After facing the likes of San Francisco and Atlanta the previous two weeks we feel this improving St Louis offense has remained under the radar. Arizona's defense continues to be shredded as they have permitted every opponent since week two to score 20 points or more. The last five games the Cards have given up 27, 31, 36, 27 and 38 points. Yet the total in this game remains low. The weather surely won't be a factor playing in Arizona. In five home games for the Cardinals this season the average points scored has been 51.4 ppg. The Cardinals are allowing a whopping 17.4 points and 200.0 yards in the opening half this season. Arizona knows they aren't going anywhere this year and with the Derek Anderson meltdown after last week we expect the Cardinals to try to stretch the field more. We fully expect Arizona to try to outscore the opposition because it's clear this defense can't stop anyone. It's stat padding time in Arizona and this could be the first of many times that we look for the over in games involving Arizona. PLAY OVER |
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12-05-10 | St. Louis Rams -3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
St Louis at Arizona
While it's finally looking like the Rams are getting some believers the truth of the matter is this line remains too low. Now 8-3 ATS on the season this St Louis team is far better than anyone gives them credit for. They only have two losses on the season by more than four points and the loss against the Falcons two weeks ago was much closer than the final 17 point margin. St Louis finally broke through with a road win last week at Denver and they come into this game very confident in their abilities. After all they are tied for first place with Seattle and the only tough game remaining on the schedule is at New Orleans next week. We said it before last Monday Night and we will repeat it here. The Arizona Cardinals along with the Carolina Panthers are the two worst teams in the league, and that's by a substantial margin. The Cardinal defense is simply horrendous. We saw the 49ers completely blow them off the ball and a back-up running back became noteworthy once again. Arizona has permitted every opponent since week two of the season to score 20 points or more. The Cardinals are a team coming off 10 and 9 win seasons and they really thought they would be a playoff team this year. Now as they enter play Sunday with a 3-8 record it's all about the stats for this Cardinal offense. St Louis dropped a heartbreaking 17-13 decision to Arizona in the season opener. But since that time these are totally different teams. Look for St Louis to put the pedal to the metal as they win this one going away. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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12-05-10 | Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers OVER 44.5 | 28-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Oakland at San Diego
Oakland games average 23.8 ppg in the opening half this season while the Charger games average 26.6 ppg in the first half. Therefore we expect the pace to be furious early on with the low total never being a factor. After all 32 points were scored in the opening half of the first meeting this season with 62 points making the scoreboard. The Chargers are the best offense in the league when they don't turn the ball over, and the last four games they have produced 36, 35, 29 and 33 points with a plus 3 turnover margin. When you consider that the Raiders have permitted 38, 31, 35 and 33 points already this season you can see the Chargers having a big day offensively, especially if the Raiders turn the ball over. In games in which Oakland doesn't have a turnover advantage they have permitted an average of 26.9 ppg. When Oakland doesn't have a halftime lead this season the second halves average 22.5 points. The Chargers are favored by 7 1/2 points in the opening half so that's likely the case. On the season 7 of 11 opponents of the Chargers have scored 20 points or more including these Raiders who put up 27 in the first meeting. With weather not being a factor this low total will easily be surpassed. PLAY OVER |
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12-05-10 | Buffalo Bills +6 v. Minnesota Vikings | 14-38 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
Buffalo at Minnesota
The Bills continue to be undervalued despite an amazing run since the bye week. The last six games Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS covering the spread by a combined 40 points. This isn't something unexpected either as winless teams coming out of the bye in week four or later are always a terrific pointspread proposition the remainder of the year. The general fan has preconceived ideas about NFL teams and they just can't get it out of their heads that the Bills are not the same team who started the season losing their first eight games. The Buffalo defense is much improved holding 4 of 5 opponents to 22 points or less. While many will feel the overtime loss to the Steelers as being a major deterrent this week the Bills have shown their resiliency all season. Minnesota is the exact opposite of the Bills. They are a team that was considered to be a title contender coming into the year and have been completely overvalued all season long. The Vikings are just 3-8 ATS on the year and they haven't covered in back to back games all season. The three pointspread covers were by margins of 1, 1 1/2 and 2 points. At just 4-7 on the season with four straight NFC opponents to end the season Minnesota isn't fully focused on the weak AFC entrant. Now with a banged up quarterback, a banged up running back and a defense that yielded 24 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games, the Vikings are expected to win by a margin. With only one victory all season by more than four points we just don't see that happening. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-05-10 | Washington Redskins +7 v. NY Giants | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
Washington at NY Giants
The Redskins have dropped four straight games to the Giants and they have lost 3 of the last 4 weeks. Yet this is a team we are willing to back in this price range. This is the highest spread in the last six years in New York and with the Giant's current troubles it's a hell of a bargain. Despite a 5-6 record on the season the Skins have been an excellent road underdog. As a road dog this year they have won 3 of 4 games straight up and have a 13-6-2 ATS mark as a road dog the past 3+ seasons. After winning straight up in Chicago, Philadelphia and Tennessee there is no reason they should be getting a touchdown here. The Giants are now on a 7-15 ATS run after dropping three straight games ATS. They are just 3-9 ATS in Giants Stadium including outright losses in 6 of the last 12 games here. They end the season facing Washington twice, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Green Bay. What was once such a promising season could quickly turn into a nightmare for Giants fans. The offense has stagnated and the key receivers are injured. The defense which looked so dominating early on has yielded 20 points or more 5 of the last 6 games. The Giants are known to fade once the calendar turns and this year has been no exception. We expect this game to go down to the wire with the Skins having an excellent chance for the outright win. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-05-10 | San Francisco 49ers +10 v. Green Bay Packers | 16-34 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
San Francisco at Green Bay
The 49ers are at their best in the role of a road underdog posting a 7-1-1 spread mark. The reason being is that they are a conservative offense that runs the ball and they play solid defense. Despite a four win season they are in this thick of it in the NFC West race as they trail Seattle and St Louis by a single game. It's the San Francisco defense that has our attention here as they have held their last six opponents to just 15.8 ppg. It's tough not to take a team in this price range with an under the radar defense that keeps you in games. Offensively Troy Smith is sticking with a short passing game and counting on his talented running back stable. Sure Frank Gore is out for the season but this offensive line is talented and can create holes for whomever is in the backfield. Green Bay is thought to be an explosive offense but they haven't performed nearly as well against a stout defense. The Packers managed just 17 against Chicago, 13 against Washington, 20 against Miami, 9 against the NY Jets along with 17 last week in Atlanta. They made all their hay against the likes of the Bills, Lions, Vikings and Cowboys. Green Bay has a divisional game on deck at Detroit and they finish the season with New England, the NY Giants and Chicago. The Packers are the better team but can they score enough here to distance themselves? We obviously don't think so. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-05-10 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions +6 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
Chicago at Detroit
You can't blame the Bears for taking the Lions lightly in this spot. After all they just played two weeks ago in a nationally televised affair with the Dolphins, and last week they upset the Eagles. They end the season facing New England, Minnesota, the NY Jets and Green Bay. If there ever was a flat spot in the schedule it would be here against a Lions team using a 3rd straight signal caller, especially considering the Bears have beaten the Lions the last five meetings by margins of 5, 14, 24, 4 and 27 points. Right now the Bears are fat and happy after winning four straight games. They are the new flavor of the month in the NFC. Just ask the Giants and Eagles how that feels. Say what you want about the 2-9 Lions but they give a full effort every week. And you know they have been itching to get back on the field after blowing a 17-10 halftime lead over the Patriots on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions are 7-4 ATS on the season because they are undervalued in the minds of the betting public. After that collapse on national television and with a 3rd string quarterback nobody will want the Lions here. Which is exactly why Detroit is the correct play in this game. If you remember back to opening week Detroit was robbed of a victory when they played the Bears as Calvin Johnson's apparent touchdown was taken away by a strange rule violation. The Lions sure remember it and you can bet they will be playing with fire come Sunday. And as for Drew Stanton being behind center. Is that really a huge drop-off from an injured Matt Stafford or journeyman Shaun Hill? This offense has talent and the defense is much better than what we saw in the second half on Turkey Day. Look for the Lions to play with fire as the Bears bask in their glory off four wins in a row. PLAY DETROIT |
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12-02-10 | Houston Texans v. Philadelphia Eagles -8 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
Houston at Philadelphia
Interesting early week game that features two teams who played very physical opponents on Sunday. But in a short turnaround game we prefer to lay the points with one of the best pointspread coaches in the NFL. In the last 10+ years the Eagles are a terrific 95-73-3 ATS and they are even better under the national spotlight. With spread covers already this year at San Francisco (Sunday Night), at Washington (Monday Night), and hosting the NY Giants (Sunday Night), the Eagles are now 8-1 ATS the last nine games played in front of the entire country. This is one coaching staff that can fire up a team in the national spotlight. The Eagles are scoring a whopping 16.5 points on 209.0 yards in the first half this season. They are striking fast and often and now they run in to a defense that they can exploit. Houston is coming off their first shutout of the season. But before you get all giddy about this Texans stop unit consider that until that game against a rookie quarterback making his first start, they had permitted 24 points or more to every single team they played this season. The previous six games they allowed 35, 30, 29, 31 and 30 points. This is not the type of defense that has the ability to slow down this scary Philadelphia scoring unit. Offensively Houston can put points on the board but they are very slow starters. The Texans average just 8.5 points and 141.8 yards in the first half. If they get behind against this defense Matt Schaub could be in real trouble. Laying over a touchdown in the NFL is always risky, but in this case Philadelphia should get out to a very fast start and force the Texans into a one-dimensional mode. Besides, this is a perfect spread for those of you who prefer teasers. Either way the Eagles are the clear right side after scoring a combined 138 points the past four weeks. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-29-10 | San Francisco 49ers -1 v. Arizona Cardinals | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
San Francisco at Arizona
Great situation for the 49ers who are off a home shutout loss to the Buccaneers. We saw the same thing out of the Dolphins yesterday as they were recently blanked at home by the Bears. But yesterday Miami played a solid game in winning by a margin at Oakland. We feel the same thing will happen tonight for the Niners. While San Francisco has just three wins on the year they have played some tough competition very tight. San Francisco has a 3 point loss to New Orleans, a 2 point loss to Atlanta and a 3 point loss to Philadelphia. The Niners have won 2 of their last 3 games and 3 of the last 5 contests overall. The offense was making strides going into that shutout loss last week as they put up 23, 24 and 20 points the previous three games. Defensively San Francisco has been very solid as of late holding five straight opponents to 23 points or less. The Niners have beaten Arizona 2 of the last 3 meetings here and they swept the series last year. Despite the 49ers problems this season they remain the better team in this matchup. Other than Carolina the Arizona Cardinals are the next worst team in the league. While the record shows three wins they all came early in the season. Since the bye week the Cardinals are 0-5 being outscored by a combined margin of 54 points. That was against Seattle twice, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Kansas City. It's very likely that none of those teams will be competing in the post season. A major problem for the Cardinals is that they fall behind early and must play catch up the rest of the game. They have only led at the half once all season and they lost that game in Minnesota in overtime. They have trailed at the half in every one of their home games this season. That shows just how slight a home field advantage this team has. In fact, after 10 and 9 win seasons the previous two years the Cardinals may just have a home field disadvantage. Arizona is being outscored at the half 17.0-9.2 and outgained 198.7-147.4 despite getting the opening kickoff in 8 of 10 games. First half stats are more telling than full game information because it takes out all the garbage stats in lopsided games. San Francisco hasn't been world beaters on the road but they know they can win in this building and they are coming off an embarrassing performance. Look for San Francisco to get out early and force the Cardinals to put the ball in the air with underperforming signal callers. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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11-28-10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Baltimore Ravens -7 | Top | 10-17 | Push | 0 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Simply put the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most overrated team in the NFL. They are 7-3 on the season with exactly zero wins over a team with at least a .500 record. The combined record of the teams they have defeated is 17-54. They have played three quality teams, losing by 25 hosting Pittsburgh, by 25 hosting New Orleans and by 6 at Atlanta. In looking at first half stats they are being outscored 15.1-10.9 and outgained 191.4-149.9. Next week they face off with the Falcons in what likely will be for the division crown. They follow that game up with four more NFC opponents to end the season. Off back to back victories we simply can't see the Bucs putting in the extra effort they need this week against a very tough AFC opponent. Baltimore also has a key divisional game on deck but they have been dominant in M&T Bank Stadium. The last 10+ years Baltimore is an amazing 43-20-2 ATS as home favorites. And as opposed to the Buccaneers they have beaten the likes of the Jets and Steelers. The Baltimore defense has held all but two teams to 20 points or less in regulation all season, they will give Josh Freeman fits. Only once all year has a team scored more than 10 points against Baltimore in the first half, and the Ravens still won that game. Offensively Baltimore has scored 37, 21, 26, 37, 20 and 30 points the past six games. They can put enough points on the board to win this going away. In the last six games in this building Baltimore is averaging 32.8 ppg. This line should have been double digits and we take full advantage. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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11-28-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Buffalo Bills +7 | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
The Steelers are sure to be a bit preoccupied this week considering their schedule. If there ever was a flat spot it comes on the road against the Bills. The last four weeks the Steelers faced the Super Bowl Champion Saints on Sunday Night Football. Played division rival Cincinnati on Monday Night Football. Played multi Super Bowl Champion New England on Sunday Night Football, and last week they pasted the Oakland Raiders 35-3 at home. After facing Buffalo on Sunday they travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens on Sunday Night Football in a game that could decide the divisional crown. The next two weeks they take on divisional rival Cincinnati before hosting the New York Jets, a likely playoff opponent. The Steeler defense which is their trademark hasn't been nearly as dominating as of late. Before holding down the Raiders last week they had allowed 39, 21, 20 and 22 points the four previous games. Buffalo is a team that is gaining confidence by the week. They have won the past two games and have cashed to the tune of 4-0-1 the last five weeks. Ever since the bye week this has been a totally different team. Their three losses since the bye have all been by three point margins, at Baltimore, at Kansas City and in Toronto against the Bears. All of those teams have their sites on the postseason this year. This game is very important for Buffalo even though they know they aren't going anywhere. Beating the Lions and Bengals is fine and dandy but now they need to prove to themselves that they can get over the hump against a good football team. They catch the Steelers at just the right time to shock the league. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-28-10 | Tennessee Titans +6.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 0-20 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
Tennessee at Houston
Talk about an overreaction. The Titans would have likely been a three point underdog here with Vince Young behind center. Even with Kerry Collins they would be no more than a four point dog. But now with Rusty Smith the Titans are catching roughly a touchdown. The league's best running back and one of the top coaches in the NFL catching this type of spread against one of the most overrated teams in the league. Tennessee is 3-2 straight up on the road with wins at the NY Giants, Dallas and Jacksonville, all by touchdown or larger margins. Off three straight losses it's do or die time for Jeff Fisher and the Titans. This is a must win game after dropping an overtime decision last week to the Redskins who were in a very similar situation. With four straight divisional games in the next month this game is an all-in game for the visitor. Tennessee has beaten Houston 8 of the last 10 meetings with the losses coming by 1 and 3 points. Houston is in the midst of a brutally tough schedule. Since their bye week they have played Indianapolis, San Diego, Jacksonville and the NY Jets. The next four games are against Tennessee twice, Philadelphia and Baltimore. The problem with the Texans is that they continually fall behind early and are forced to play catch-up the entire second half. Thus far this year they are being outscored on average in the first half 15.3-8.0 while being outgained 198.3-135.2. In 7 of their 10 games they have scored 7 points or less in the opening half. The last two years the Texans have faced Tennessee four times and they have averaged just 19 points per game. They simply can't score enough against this Tennessee defense to lay a number this size. Look for this one to go down to the wire with the Titans pulling out a game they know they can win. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-25-10 | Cincinnati Bengals v. NY Jets -9 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
Cincinnati at NY Jets
After a huge late comeback that fell short against the Colts two weeks ago, the Bengals allowed the Bills to blow them away in the second half in route to a 49-31 home loss last Sunday. Now riding a seven game losing streak and facing the Jets, Saints and Steelers the next three games, you can put the final fork in the Bengals. To show just how bad this team has been after posting a 10-6 mark a season ago all you have to do is look at first half stats. That throws out all the bogus information you get from lopsided scores in the second half of games. In breaking down the first stanza we find that despite getting the kickoff in 8 of 10 games Cincinnati has been outscored 13.4-10.4 and outgained 178.1-173.7. The Jets on the other hand have only received the ball 2 of 10 times to start the game and yet they are outscoring the opposition 10.3-7.8 and outyarding them 167.4-142.2. In ten games they have scored first six times despite giving the opposition the ball first eight times. The New York defense has held the opposition to point totals at home of 10, 14, 20 and 9 points before allowing Houston 27 last week. You can bet they will be playing with a purpose on Thursday. The Jets shutout the Bengals 37-0 in the season finale last year after holding the Tigers to only 14 points the prior season. The Jets have the big showdown with New England next Monday night but this national showcase is enough to hold their attention. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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11-22-10 | Denver Broncos +9.5 v. San Diego Chargers | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
Denver at San Diego
The Broncos came out of the bye last week with a purpose which is what you do after entering the break on a four game losing streak. They dominated the Chiefs from the start in leading 35-10 at halftime. We expect that offensive explosion to continue as the betting public is giving them little to no chance of being competitive here. Norv Turner has never been known as a good head football coach. Despite having some of the best talent in the league his teams always underperform. The same thing is happening this year as the Chargers are one of the best teams in the league in regards to yardage, yet they continually find ways to lose. San Diego went into the bye fat and happy after two satisfying victories over the Titans and Texans. But good ole Norv has not fared well with extra time to prepare. In the past five years San Diego came out of the break installed as a favorite. They covered just one of those games losing 2 of 4 in straight up fashion. Last year Denver in the same situation beat the Chargers here 34-23 as a 3 1/2 point underdog. Most teams have an advantage with an extra week to prepare but under Norv Turner it's actually a disadvantage. With an inflated line we'll look for the Broncos to give the Chargers all they can handle. PLAY DENVER |
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11-21-10 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
NY Giants at Philadelphia
The Giants have had a hell of a time stopping this Eagle offense as of late and now they must deal with the hottest quarterback in the league. The last four meetings Philadelphia has posted point totals of 45, 40, 20 and 31 points against this New York stop unit. And while the Giants are known for rushing the passer they have been burned by good offenses all season. Dallas scored 35 and 33 in their two meetings. Indianapolis produced 38 points against this defense. Tennessee scored 29 when they faced off earlier this year. Philadelphia has scored 26 points or more in 6 of their 9 games. The last five games they have averaged 32.4 points. Needless to say the Eagles will be putting some points on the board this week. While the Giants defense has been suspect against quality offenses, they too can find success. Five times this season they have scored 28 points or more and over the past five games they are averaging 32.8 ppg. Last week the Cowboys threw a few wrinkles at the Giants that they didn't expect. But you know they will be fully prepared here. Because Philadelphia has such a quick strike offense their defense tends to be exposed. Teams with both a running and passing attack can have their way on this stop unit. We look for this to be another big time shootout between two of the better scoring teams in the league. The last meeting featured 83 points and a repeat is in the cards. PLAY OVER |
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11-21-10 | Indianapolis Colts +4 v. New England Patriots | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
Indianapolis at New England
We were on the Colts last week and they cost us a perfect 5-0 day as Cincinnati came through a fully opened back door. But we doubt that will be the case this week as the Indy players know how dangerous Tom Brady can be. The Colts have dominated the first half this year, a half in which the men separate themselves from the boys. Indy is outscoring the opposition by 7.6 points and outgaining them by a whopping 46.6 yards in the opening stanza. At 6-3 on the season and with New England, San Diego, a rejuvenated Dallas and Tennessee the next four weeks, the Colts need to pick up their play in a hurry. And we feel they will. The receivers dropped a lot of passes from Manning last week and that simply won't do. You can bet the vocal leader of this team will have his troops ready after blowing that lead a week ago. New England looked terrific last week in Pittsburgh, a full week after the Browns put them in their place in Cleveland. The Patriot coaching staff has always played well against the Steelers but they have really struggled against the Colts. The last five years these teams have met and Indy is 4-1 straight up in this series. The last four games have all been decided by seven points or less with the last three margins being by 1, 3 and 4 points. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Pats who must head to Detroit for a Thanksgiving game against the Lions on Thursday. The Colts on the other hand don't take the field again until Sunday night. By now we all know how the NFL works. The teams that looked great last week often come crashing down the following week. This week it's the Patriots who take the fall. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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11-21-10 | Buffalo Bills +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 49-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
Buffalo at Cincinnati
How is it possible to have the most improved team in the league over the past four games with nobody knowing it? But that's exactly what the Buffalo Bills have done after starting the season 0-5 while being outscored by a combined 74 points. The last four games Buffalo lost by 3 at Baltimore, lost by 3 in overtime at Kansas City, lost by 3 in Toronto against Chicago and beat Detroit at home by 2. Now they are catching six points at Cincinnati? This is a team starting to believe in themselves that are still considered the dregs of the league. Buffalo is the kind of under the radar bargain you rarely find in the NFL. They are 3-1 ATS in road games this year and 3-0-1 ATS the last four times they have taken the field. Cincinnati entered the season as the defending AFC North Champions. They are currently 2-7 having lost six straight games. Two weeks ago they openly talked about beating the Steelers in a must win situation. They lost at home to Pittsburgh 27-21. Last week they had a negative five turnover game against the Colts but to their credit they refused to give up sneaking in with a one point spread cover. But now at 2-7 and way out of the playoff race do you really think this cast of characters will self motivate themselves to play well against what they consider a bad football team? After all Cincinnati is just 1-8 ATS as a home favorite the past three seasons. After facing Buffalo the Bengals take on the Jets, Saints, Steelers, Browns, Chargers and Ravens to end the season. Since this is the Holiday Season you can put a fork in them, their season is over. And if we know that you know this cast of characters has already planned their off-season vacations. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-15-10 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3.5 | 59-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Washington
The Eagles are in the middle of a high profile three game stretch. Last week they defeated the defending AFC Champion Colts. Next week they face off for the divisional lead with the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football. This week they face their former quarterback and the Washington Redskins. The Eagles already dropped a 17-12 home decision to the Redskins as Washington held the Eagles to a season low 12 points. The Redskins have an extra week to prepare off an embarrassing 37-25 loss at Detroit. That was the most points this Washington defense has permitted all season. As opposed to the rugged road the Eagles have or will face the Redskins have been at home stewing over a poor performance. Washington is just 4-4 on the season but they are actually a perfect 2-0 against their division rivals. With a win here the Skins are back in the divisional race while a loss would severely hurt their playoff chances. This is a make or break game for the host while Philadelphia considers next weeks game with the Giants their showdown. The Eagles have beaten just two teams with winning records while the Skins have defeated three. The situation, as well as the McNabb controversy about the two minute warning change last time out, provide us with a very focused favorite. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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11-14-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants OVER 45.5 | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
Dallas at NY Giants
This Cowboys offense has plenty of talent which has never been the issue. And now that offensive coordinator Garrett has taken over the team you know he's looking to prove himself on that side of the ball. A total of 76 points were scored in the first meeting while last year 55 and 64 points were tallied in the two contests. It's clear both coaching staffs know how to puts points on the board in this rivalry. So why is this total so low? Obviously the bettors haven't gotten a glimpse of this Dallas defense. The last five games the Cowboys have allowed a whopping 35.8 points per game. The Giants are getting better and better offensively as evidenced by a 36 ppg average their last four contests. Not only is this team scoring offensively but the defense is also a threat to score. With the pass happy Cowboys keeping the ball in the air it not only increases the yards per play category for Dallas but also lengthens the game. Therefore more plays and more opportunity for scoring. The Giants have taken advantage of suspect defenses all season long and we can't see Dallas having an answer. We look for another Giants/Cowboys shootout. PLAY OVER |
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11-14-10 | St Louis Rams +6 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
St Louis at San Francisco
Once again we find ourselves backing a very underrated Rams squad which is now 6-2 ATS on the season. While they have yet to win on the road this year they have covered 2 of 3 including close losses to the Raiders by 2 and the Bucs by a single point. This sizable underdog has been excellent defensively all season allowing 18 points or less in 7 of their 8 games. That's extremely significant here as the Niners have struggled to put points on the board all year. Both teams are listed as off byes but the clear advantage goes to St Louis who has been home the last two weeks while San Francisco had to travel to and from London. To show how this 49er offense has struggled all you need to see is the last three games. Sure they put up 17 points against the Raiders, 20 against Carolina and 24 vs the Broncos, but they had a plus two turnover advantage in each of those games. When most NFL clubs average that type of output the Niners needed a big turnover edge to get it. That becomes more of a problem against a Rams team that has a +3 turnover ratio on the season. San Francisco is averaging just 7.0 points in the first half this year while the Rams allow just 8.1. In order to take St Louis out of a game you need to get a lead and force a suspect passing game into action. That just hasn't been the case this season for San Francisco who's biggest halftime lead this year has been four points. This one goes down to the wire in a defensive struggle. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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11-14-10 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -7 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
Cincinnati at Indianapolis
The Bengal players talked openly about the importance of winning last Mondays game against the Steelers. After coming up short in that key divisional showdown Cincinnati is now 2-6 on the season and 1-2 in a division with Pittsburgh and Baltimore. After a 10-6 season the players know this year is shot. Cincinnati has had a long history of tanking and the players on this team have a high percentage of lack of effort guys. Now on a short week they are expected to break their five game losing streak with a trip to face the defending AFC Champs. On the road the Bengals own a single victory, at Carolina the likely worst team in the NFL. They lost at New England by 14, at Cleveland by 3 and at Atlanta by 7, and those games were played when Cincinnati was still in contention. With a winnable game hosting Buffalo next week followed by a nationally televised Thanksgiving contest at the NY Jets, what game do you think the Bengals will mail in? Indianapolis is a perfect 2-0 ATS off outright losses this year covering by a combined 23 points. Both those games came right here at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indy is a perfect 3-0 ATS here this year outscoring the opposition 87-40. All three teams they faced, the Giants, Chiefs and Texans are all better than the Bengals. With New England and San Diego on deck it's time for Manning and company to once again build up team confidence with a blowout home win. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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11-14-10 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
Minnesota at Chicago
The Vikings have been a money burner all season long with a 2-6 spread record. The two covers were by a single point hosting Detroit and by 1 1/2 points hosting Dallas. The last time we looked neither of those clubs were in the playoff hunt, and neither are the Vikings. Sure the experts will say that if they win the next two weeks against Chicago and Green Bay they will be right in the think of the playoff chase. But why all of a sudden should this tiger change its spots. It's very clear that the team and the coaching staff are on totally different pages. The quarterback wants the headlines while the best offensive player is left out in the cold at running back. Minnesota is averaging just 8.0 points in the first half this season. With all that talent on the offensive side of the ball that's all they can produce? Minnesota hasn't surpassed 24 points in regulation at any time this season. Last week a terrible road team in the Arizona Cardinals shut them down completely for 3 of 4 quarters. The Vikings have dropped 4 of the last 5 meetings at Soldier Field with the lone victory coming by 3 points. The Bears came out of their bye week with the same defensive intensity they have shown all season. Not a single team has scored more than 23 points against this defense with 6 of 8 teams being held to 19 points or less. While the Viking defense has underperformed this season the Bear defense has been stellar. That's especially impressive when you consider the bad field position they have been put in all season long because of the lack of protection from the offensive line. The Bears aren't world beaters by any means offensively but they can more than hold their own here. The linesmaker is trying to tell us that the 3-5 Vikings are 4 points better than the 5-3 Bears on a neutral field. While Chicago isn't likely deserving of their record, they are equally as poor as the Vikings, with a much better defense. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-08-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
The Bengals have been a major disappointment this season after posting 10 wins a year ago. Offensively they haven't lived up to their talent level and defensively they are weakening under the pressure of carrying the team. Cincinnati has just two wins on the season and you can actually count on one finger the good games they have played. Other than a 15-10 home win over Baltimore these cats have lacked the fight. The Bengals have played a tough schedule but Pittsburgh could be the best team they have faced thus far. The Steelers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings in Cincinnati with those victories coming by margins of 28, 11, 6 and 14 points. They are allowing just 6.3 points in the first half this year which isn't good news for this Bengals squad averaging just 8.0 points before intermission. If Pittsburgh continues their opening stanza defensive success they will take this crowd out of the game quickly. This is the third straight road game for Pittsburgh which hasn't happened in quite some time, but after the offense struggled last week in New Orleans we look for Big Ben and company to have an easier time here. Cincinnati's lack of home field edge is very evident, especially off their slow start to the season. Pittsburgh outgained the Bengals here last year by a full 100 yards yet Cincinnati gained the three point win. We look for the Steelers to reestablish their dominance as the better team wins going away. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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11-07-10 | Arizona Cardinals v. Minnesota Vikings -7.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
Arizona at Minnesota
The Cardinals have turned into a major liability on the road dropping 7 of 8 ATS as visitors. The last three games in enemy territory they have been outscored by margins of 12, 31 and 34 points. Defensively Arizona has permitted at least 20 points to each of their last six opponents including 38 last week while hosting Tampa Bay. Those 38 points were a full 14 points more than the Bucs had scored in any other game this season. In fact, 3 of the last 6 opponents set single game highs in scoring at the expense of the Cardinals. Minnesota has faced a brutal schedule including New Orleans, Miami, the NY Jets, Green Bay and New England. It's telling that their two wins this year came against middle of the road or lesser squads in Detroit and Dallas. Now they take on the easiest opponent they have faced all season, and they do so with revenge for a 30-17 loss last year in a Sunday Night Football game in Arizona. Minnesota had won 10 of the first 11 games last season before that Cardinal defeat. The Vikings despite a 2-5 record still have a decent shot at the playoffs considering their second half schedule is far easier than the teams they have played thus far. With Arizona, Chicago twice, Washington, Buffalo and Detroit ahead the future isn't so dire for the Vikings. Look for Minnesota to take advantage of a porous Arizona defense as they make a statement against one of the worst travelers in the NFL. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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11-07-10 | New England Patriots v. Cleveland Browns +5.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
New England at Cleveland
This is an extreme flat spot for the Patriots. Before the bye they played three straight games against division rivals New York, Buffalo and Miami. The later on Monday Night Football. Coming out of the bye they faced two of their biggest AFC rivals in Baltimore and San Diego. Last week they hosted a very good Minnesota team and ex-Patriot Randy Moss. The next two weeks New England faces off with Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football and their huge rival Indianapolis. In the meantime they face the downtrodden Cleveland Browns and ex-Patriot assistant Eric Mangini. While this game has reduced meaning for the visitor it's a huge game for the host. Cleveland is just 2-5 on the year and has extra time to prepare after a confidence building 30-17 road win at New Orleans. Cleveland has yet to allow more than 20 points to any opponent here in Cleveland and the Patriot offense has taken a major step back since the trade of Moss. Welker still makes the catches but his yards per reception are really down. Mangini has had this game circled and the bye week means he can add additional plays in order to match wits with the New England coaching staff. This is a huge game for the host and we expect the Browns to win this one outright. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-07-10 | Chicago Bears v. Buffalo Bills OVER 41 | Top | 22-19 | Push | 0 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
Buffalo at Chicago
Don't read too much into the Bill's defensive effort last week in a 13-10 overtime defeat at Kansas City. They still surrendered 205 yards in the first half which was more than their season to date average. That's from a team that had allowed a whopping 36.6 ppg their last five outings. Offensively the Bills have already faced some terrific defensive squads which have really held down their production. After facing the likes of Miami, Green Bay, New England, the Jets, Baltimore and Kansas City, the Bills won't be intimidated by the Bear's stop unit. Chicago hasn't been able to protect the quarterback all season and yet they have averaged 18.0 ppg on the year. Now facing a very bad Buffalo defense off an extra week to prepare, we see this as an offensive breakout game for Chicago. All but one opponent has reached at least 14 points against the Bears, with the lone team under that number being the completely offensive incompetent Carolina Panthers. The line has raised slightly from the 40 opener but it's still a heck of a bargain at this price. PLAY OVER |
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11-01-10 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts -5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Houston at Indianapolis
Revenge time for the Colts who lost opening week at home to the Texans. That win broke a long losing streak in this series for Houston. The Texans enter play at 4-2 on the season and have permitted 24 or more points to every opponent. That includes stagnant offenses like Washington, the Giants and Dallas. Houston has lost the last five visits to this building by an average of 13 points per game. They start out behind the eight ball each and every game this year being outscored on average 15-3-7.8 in the first half. Look for the Colts to take advantage early and take a sizable lead into the break. Like Houston, Indy is 4-2 on the season but they can't afford to lose the divisional tie breaker to the Texans. With Tennessee having a big year this is a must win game for the host. The Colts are outscoring the opposition in the first half by an average score of 14.0-6.7. With Houston allowing 209.8 yards in the opening half Manning and company will really carve up this defense from the start. The Colts are averaging 203.7 yards in the opening half. Obviously we like the Colts in the game but the stronger play may be Indy in the first half. We've had great success playing first half bets this season and it's very likely to carry over for the full game. Play Indy for the game and if you want the extra action the first half play also. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-31-10 | Carolina Panthers v. St. Louis Rams -2 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
Carolina at St Louis
Don't read too much into the Panthers' 23-20 win last week over San Francisco. The 49ers were playing their last game before making the long trip to London, and as we pointed out last week that's a terrible pointspread situation. San Francisco also played half the game behind a back up quarterback. Even with those problems the Niners actually led these Panthers in the fourth quarter. Carolina is allowing 196.8 yards in the first half this season when the game has yet to be decided. That's a telling stat on how bad this stop unit is. It's even worse when you consider that Carolina has played the offenses of Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Chicago and San Francisco. The Rams continue to be overlooked in the betting markets despite cashing 5 of 7 games while winning 3 of 4 home games in straight-up fashion. QB Bradford is not making crucial mistakes and the defense has held all but one opponent to 18 points or less. The Rams haven't been a home favorite since 2007 and Carolina traditionally is a solid underdog. But those trends are in the past as St Louis is by far the better team this season. There is a reason why Matt Moore was benched for an untested rookie and we find out why today. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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10-31-10 | Green Bay Packers +6.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Green Bay at New York Jets
Despite a 4-3 record and numerous injuries the Packers continue to be an undervalued squad. Going into the season Green Bay was expected to challenge for the NFC title and the defense has actually played better than expected. The Packers haven't lost by more than this spread in 11 of 13 road games with just one loss coming by more than a touchdown. Green Bay is on a 23-11-1 run catching points on the road as this team is always a dangerous underdog. While this game is sandwiched between Sunday Night Football affairs against the Vikings and Cowboys, Green Bay can't afford a letdown. The bye week for New York couldn't have come at a worse time as they were really on a roll winning five straight games. That disruption could really hurt a team that has to come out of the bye a bit full of themselves. Everyone is telling them that they are the team to beat and it can't help but hurt your motivation. With Green Bay, Detroit and Cleveland on deck the Jets may be in cruise control here. Keep in mind that despite winning a combined 18 games the last two seasons the Jets were only 9-7 straight up at home. This is too many points for New York to lay off a bye week. The Packers keep this close and give themselves a chance for the outright victory. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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10-25-10 | NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 45 | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
New York at Dallas
The Cowboys are in a must win situation but we're not sure they are good enough to get the job done. They, like the Chargers have dominated in the stats but haven't taken advantage by putting points on the board. The Giants on the other hand haven't been lighting up the scoreboard themselves despite scoring 34 and 28 points the last two weeks. You see this Cowboy stop unit is far superior to the Texans and Lions. In fact, when not playing the likes of Houston, Carolina and Detroit, three teams with major defensive issues, the Giants have scored just 14, 10 and 17 points. With this being a must win game for the Cowboys and the defenses being the strongest units on the field we look for a low scoring contest. The Giants are allowing an average of just 127.2 yards in the first half this year while the Cowboys allow just 134.4 yards. Look for a slow start to this game with both teams feeling out the opposition. The under is the way to play this one. PLAY UNDER |
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10-24-10 | Oakland Raiders +9 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 59-14 | Win | 100 | 44 h 3 m | Show |
Oakland at Denver
Here we see what has become a common occurrence this year in the NFL. A team's starting quarterback goes down and the betting public overreacts. It happened in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Chicago and now in Oakland. We're getting additional points because Gradkowski and Campbell may be out. Is Kyle Boller really any worse than those two guys? How many big wins do they have on their resumes? Boller is a capable NFL quarterback that is being undervalued in the betting markets. Oakland has a huge scheduling advantage here that has been rarely mentioned. Two weeks ago they hosted San Diego and last week they drove across the bridge to take on the 49ers. Now after facing Denver they come right back home to host Seattle. Denver on the other hand must fly off to London after the game to take on San Francisco. Because of the long trip and time differences how much quality practice time will this team have. Not only that but it has to be stressful on the players and their families. History says that it makes a huge difference the week before as these clubs fail to cover on a consistent basis. Denver hasn't fared well at home against the Raiders, losing the last two meetings in straight up fashion. In fact, Denver has dropped four straight ATS hosting Oakland, losing to the spread by a combined 55 1/2 points. Last year they were a 14 point favorite and lost outright. The Broncos are now 5-19-1 as a home favorite. Off a last second home loss to the Jets and with a long trip to London on deck we can't see them fully focused on the task at hand. PLAY OAKLAND |
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10-24-10 | St. Louis Rams +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 46 h 27 m | Show |
St Louis at Tampa Bay
We're getting the better team plus the points in this one as the public has yet to realize just how bad this Bucs team really is. St Louis comes into this game with a 3-3 record including wins over Washington, Seattle and San Diego. They have won 3 of their last 4 games and despite being 0-2 on the road the Rams are playing with confidence for the first time in years. In each of the last six seasons St Louis has had a better spread record on the road as opposed to the Edward Jones Dome. Because they have been outscored 60-20 on foreign soil this year many will discard their improvement, and that would be a mistake. Tampa Bay comes in with the better record at 3-2 but you can make the case that they still don't have a quality win. Opening week they outlasted a Cleveland team by 3 that has just one win on the season. They next week they beat Carolina on the road but the Panthers and Bills look to be the two worst teams in football. The other victory came two weeks ago in Cincinnati when the Bengals gift wrapped the game with bad decision making and clock management. Against quality teams Tampa Bay has been outscored by a 69-19 margin and those two games were at home! The Buccaneers are not a team that's able to play from behind on a consistent basis and they have been abysmal in the opening half being outscored 18.6-7.4 and outgained 218.6-150.0. This is not a team that deserves to be laying points as Tampa Bay is 2-9 ATS at home under Raheem Morris. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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10-18-10 | Tennessee Titans -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | 30-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Tennessee at Jacksonville
The Titans could be the best coached team in the NFL and Steve Fisher owns a sizable advantage in this match-up, especially with extra time to prepare. Tennessee owns the far better defense and they have shown the ability to win on the road, with victories in 5 of their last 6 away games. The only loss on the road during that stretch was at Indianapolis last year in their Super Bowl season. Tennessee has dominated the game early on with an average advantage at the half of 3.0 points and 30.0 yards. Jacksonville enters play at 3-2 on the season but we haven't been impressed with the Jags. The only quality team they didn't lose to was Indy at home in a 31-28 victory. Jacksonville had a two turnover advantage in that game and were fortunate to pull out the last second victory. The Jaguars have been a slow starting team being outscored at the half 13.8-8.6 and being outgained by a whopping margin of 202.0 to 135.2. This despite playing 3 of their 5 games at home. Jacksonville owns wins over Denver at home, Buffalo on the road and Indy at home. They match up very well with the Colts and always play them tough. They have lost at San Diego by 25 and while hosting Philadelphia by 25. This is not a good football team as Tennessee owns edges all across the board. The number is cheap for the far better defense and better coached team. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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10-17-10 | Seattle Seahawks +7 v. Chicago Bears | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 3 m | Show | |
Seattle at Chicago
While their isn't many times you will see us backing the Seahawks on the road this is one instance where they are being severely undervalued. We have a team with a new coach in Pete Carroll that has extra time to prepare coming out of a bye. Those that have followed his college coaching career know that USC was terrific with extra time to prepare, and we feel that is one trend that will continue at this level, especially in his first year. Seattle has played solid defense thus far with only the pass happy Denver Broncos scoring more than 20 points against them. In fact, Seattle is permitting just 8.3 ppg in the first half this year. Chicago enters play at 4-1 on the year but there likely isn't a more overrated team in the league. They have been lucky to continue to run into offenses that are having major problems. Jay Cutler is scheduled to return this week but that may be a good thing considering his propensity to throw interceptions. He will enter a bit rusty after a head injury and having not played since the first half against the Giants two weeks ago. The Bears are just 6-12-1 ATS in the role of home favorite. Their two wins on this field were by margins of 5 against Detroit and 3 against the Packers in a game they trailed throughout. Chicago simply put cannot score enough points to cover this inflated spread. PLAY SEATTLE |
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10-17-10 | Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show |
Kansas City at Houston
Don't look now but the Chiefs who went a combined 6-26 straight up the past two seasons have now won 4 of their last 7 road games in straight up fashion. Even in a 19-9 loss last week at Indy they proved that this is not a team to take lightly. The Colts entered that game off a straight up loss and Indy had been 42-7 straight up at home the past six plus seasons. Kansas City did everything but cover that number in a game they very easily could have won outright. Kansas City has held every single opponent to 19 points or less this season which is especially impressive when facing the likes of Indianapolis and San Diego. They will not be intimidated by this Houston scoring unit. Houston is 3-2 on the year but they haven't been impressive, especially in the first half. The Texans have been outscored in the first stanza by an average of 15-6 to 8.0. They have been outgained by a margin of 213.2 to 143.6. The favored Texans have permitted at least 24 points to every opponent and that includes games against the struggling offenses of Washington, Dallas, Oakland and the Giants. We're getting the far better defense as an underdog and Houston is already 1-2 straight up at Reliant Stadium this season. Look for the Chiefs to put themselves in position for the outright victory. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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10-11-10 | Minnesota Vikings v. New York Jets OVER 38 | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
Minnesota at NY Jets
The Vikings are back in action after having a bye last week. With Brett Favre starting camp early he hasn't been very productive in the first three games. But with extra time to prepare and with a field stretching Randy Moss now in the huddle we expect the Vikings to break out offensively tonight. Minnesota went into the break averaging just over 14 points per game while allowing less than 13 a contest. What do you think the Vikings worked on with their extra time? The Jets are getting better and better offensively each week. They have gone from 9, 28, 31 and 38 points the last four weeks. Mark Sanchez is really starting to come into his own with the Jets scoring 28 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The only game they didn't reach that number was in the opener when the faced the best defense in the league in the Ravens and they did so on a soggy field. This offense is running smoothly right now and we can't see the Vikings slowing them down. PLAY OVER |
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10-10-10 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 25 m | Show |
Tennessee at Dallas
The Titans are an outstanding 18-9-1 ATS the past four plus seasons catching points. With Jeff Fisher Tennessee has a huge edge in coaching in this match-up that's not showing up in the line. The Titans have won 4 of their last 5 road games in straight up fashion with the only loss coming at Indianapolis, the AFC entrant in last year's Super Bowl. Sitting at 2-2 in a division with Indy and Houston this becomes a very big game for Tennessee, especially off a home loss. We were on the Cowboys for a big play the last time they took the field in a 27-13 victory at Houston. But coming out of the bye have the Cowboys really established themselves as an elite team? Sure we're a believer in this defense but the offense still has huge question marks. They've only scored 18 points per game even though they faced a very weak Houston defense. Sure Washington and Chicago are decent defensively but Dallas should have put up more than 27 combined points against them. Dallas still has problems on the offensive line and they needed a plus three turnover advantage against Houston to score 27 points. Until Dallas can prove that their offense is improved they are a go against team when laying points into a better coached team. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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10-10-10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | 24-21 | Loss | -118 | 20 h 27 m | Show | |
Tampa By at Cincinnati
While the Bucs enter play at 2-1 on the season Tampa Bay has shown that they are not a very good football team. The first two weeks they beat Cleveland and Carolina, two teams struggling for victories. Despite winning Tampa showed a big weakness defensively and it was exposed by the Steelers in week three 38-13. Despite having a plus four turnover edge the Bucs are scoring just 16.7 ppg. They are being outscored 22-10 in the first half when the games are still not decided including being outgained in that time frame by 51.3 yards. Now facing a Bengals team coming off a loss in a game they were favored, it could be a long day for Tampa. Cincinnati is now 2-2 on the season trailing both Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the division. With a bye on deck along with Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis to follow, this becomes a must win game for the Bengals. Cincinnati has not been a good home favorite the last couple years but now the linesmaker has made an over-adjustment. Look for Cincinnati to hit the Bucs early and often as they are outgaining the opposition in the first half by 39.7 yards despite playing 3 of 4 opponents on the road. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-10-10 | Denver Broncos +7.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
Denver at Baltimore
The Broncos have really impressed us as of late winning 2 of their last 3 games including a 26-20 victory last week at Tennessee. They only permit 7.5 ppg in the first half which keeps them competitive throughout and makes them a dangerous underdog. The Broncos are looking to avenge a 30-7 loss here last year in a game in which they lost the turnover battle and were outgained by just 95 yards. They were getting half as many points last year and we can't see how these teams are any different overall than a season ago. Baltimore is off a huge last second victory over the Steelers and are now tied for first in the AFC North. They sit at 1-2 in the division and have New England revenge on deck. While the Ravens have been a very good home favorite the past couple years they are off a physical game with their hated rival. Teams do not cover the spread after facing Pittsburgh as it's always a very draining game. It's one of the better trends in NFL handicapping. In fact, the Ravens are now 2-7 ATS after playing the Steelers, and 1-3 ATS after beating them. That game last week for Baltimore was huge and we have a tough time thinking that won't affect them here. Look for Denver to take this one to the wire as they shut down this Baltimore offense that's only surpassed 17 points once this year. PLAY DENVER |
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10-04-10 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins +1 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
New England at Miami
The Patriots are known for their offensive explosiveness but this New England defense has severe problems. They have permitted 27.3 points per game to three offenses in the Bengals, Jets and Bills who have had problems in the early going. The last four times the Pats visited the Dolphins Miami put up at least 21 points against much better New England defenses. This is a must win game for the Dolphins who are already 0-1 in the division. They can't afford to go 0-2 with both of the losses coming at home to the Jets and Patriots. With next week off this is a huge game for Miami to go into the break on a positive note. We expect the host to get off to a quick start as the defense has been terrific if the first halves this year allowing just 5.7 points and 146.3 yards before the break. Miami hasn't been very effective at Dolphins Stadium the past few years posting a 10-14 straight up mark here the past 3 + seasons. But that is only another reason for motivation for the host. We're getting a desperate team playing at home with the vastly superior defense. Look for the Dolphins to come out on top and keep their divisional championship dreams alive. PLAY MIAMI |
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10-03-10 | Washington Redskins +6 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 49 h 0 m | Show |
Washington at Philadelphia
Donovan McNabb returns to Philadelphia on Sunday with something to prove. Talented veterans with a chip on their shoulder are something we always want to back, especially if he's in the position of quarterback in the NFL. We expect the Redskins to get off to a solid start here as they have outscored and outgained the opposition in the first half by margins of 14.3-7.0 and 187.7-173.7. The underdog in this series has cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings. Washington is also 10-5-3 ATS in the role of road underdog. They are also a sparkling 16-9 as divisional road dogs including 8-1 the past three seasons. Philadelphia enters this game at 2-1 but they have taken advantage of a favorable schedule. The last two weeks they faced Detroit and Jacksonville, two of the worst teams in the league. And remember how uncompetitive they were in the first half against Green Bay until the game was out of reach. The Eagles come in with a 1-6 spread mark as divisional home favorites, losing 2 of the last 3 outright hosting the Redskins. The line on this game is inflated based on the Washington loss at St Louis last week. But we feel they may have overlooked the Rams after knocking off Dallas opening week and dropping an overtime decision the next week hosting Houston. That St Louis contest was most assuredly a sandwich game for the Skins who have had this game circled all off season. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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10-03-10 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Diego Chargers -8 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
Arizona at San Diego
The Cardinals enter this game at 2-1 on the season but they beat two of the worst teams in the league in St Louis and Oakland. The only time they actually faced a quality opponent the Falcons pounded them 41-7. Arizona's defense has been a sieve thus far despite playing some questionable offenses. Just look at how they have been beaten in the first half this year allowing 18.0 points and 214.0 yards. This is a bad football team that has taken advantage of a favorable schedule. San Diego has been dominant in the stats this year but it's not showing up on the scoreboard. But the Chargers are at their best when motivated as they are 7-0-1 ATS off a double digit spread loss. The last two games they lost San Diego responded with 38-13 and 37-7 victories. Overall off a loss San Diego is 18-8-3 ATS the following game. This is a must win game for the Chargers as a loss would put them at 1-3 and trailing the 3-0 Chiefs. San Diego has made huge comebacks in the past to win this division but it's not something they relish. Philip Rivers has the ability to carve up this reeling Cardinal defense and we expect the host to score at will. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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10-03-10 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
San Francisco at Atlanta
The 49ers are desperate for a victory after falling to 0-3 last weekend in Kansas City. But Mike Singletary has been excellent in the underdog role cashing to the tune of 9-1-1 ATS. When installed as a road dog last year only once did the 49ers lose by more than 6 points. San Francisco has a negative 5 turnover margin which is a major reason why they have had trouble putting points on the board. For example, they have actually outgained the opposition in the first half this year 158.3 yards to 147.0 but they have been outscored on average 11.0-5.3. Even in the very weak NFC West San Francisco cannot afford another loss. You will get an inspired effort from the Niners this week and the price is right. Atlanta is 2-1 on the year but two of those games had to go to overtime. That's a lot of extra snaps for a team coming off a huge victory. Atlanta hasn't had the best of luck in New Orleans as of late but to win that game last week had to take a great deal out of them. Unlike the Niners Atlanta owns a plus 4 turnover margin. If they had not been so lucky they would likely be sitting at a disappointing losing record themselves. Atlanta gave the Arizona Cardinals 7 points at this venue just two weeks ago and now they are laying the same number to a much better San Francisco squad. The betting public has overreacted here and we take full advantage. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-27-10 | Green Bay Packers -3 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
Green Bay at Chicago
The Packers have owned the Bears in Chicago winning 13 of the last 16 meetings while cashing 12 times. They have taken the money four straight times overall in this series. Green Bay is a sparkling 5-1 as a divisional road favorite and they looked impressive in their lone road game beating a resurgent Philadelphia team 27-20. The Packers have gotten off fast in the first two games outscoring the opposition 26-10 in the first half with a huge yardage edge of 335-142, with neither team reaching the century mark in first half yardage. Overall the Packers are 8-3 in the road favorite role the past three seasons including a solid 19-14 straight up road mark the past four plus seasons. Chicago is off to a 2-0 start but this team really isn't a serious playoff contender. The Bears have dropped 3 of their last 6 home games in straight up fashion with two of the victories coming against the Lions and Rams with the third occurring in overtime. Chicago took advantage of a plus 3 turnover margin to beat the Cowboys last week but they're unlikely to have that type of luck here. With Aaron Rodgers calling the shots the past two plus years the Packers have a turnover advantage of plus 32. He just doesn't make mistakes. The same cannot be said for the Bear's Jay Cutler who is a turnover waiting to happen. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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09-26-10 | New York Jets v. Miami Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
New York Jets at Miami
The Jets looked terrible offensively in the preseason and they continue to struggle moving the ball. Sure they played an excellent defense in the opener against Baltimore but they faced a less than impressive stop unit last week against New England, and still only scored 24 points despite a plus 3 turnover advantage. So far this season in two home games the Jets have been outscored and outstated in the first half 21-16 and 322-224. The going doesn't look any easier this week as they take on a Miami stop unit that's off back to back 10 point performances. New York has dropped three straight games to Miami and they have done so in all three facets of the game. In the two meetings last year Miami put up 61 points on the Jets including dominating one game in the special teams department. Miami is in the early drivers seat in this division with a perfect 2-0 mark while hosting New York and New England the next two weeks. They follow that up with a well deserved bye week before facing Green Bay and the AFC North. As opposed to the Jets who have played just one good half of football all season the Dolphins have dominated from the start, despite playing both games away from home. Miami has first half edges of 17-3 in scoring and 329-236 in yardage. Chad Henne has avoided bad decisions and let his supporting cast take over the game. That should be plenty against this NY Jet offense with loads of troubles. And don't forget this highly thought of New York defense is now without Kris Jenkins for the season and possibly Darrell Revis for this game. PLAY MIAMI |
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09-26-10 | Dallas +3 v. Houston | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
Dallas at Houston
The Cowboys entered the year with high expectations yet they are winless in their first two starts. They have gotten off to slow starts out of the gate because of a negative four turnover margin. They have trailed at the half by a combined 30-14 score yet they actually have outgained the opposition in the first half 326-292. You can bet Dallas will come out of the locker room strong on Sunday. Dallas was installed as a road dog just twice all last season winning both games in straight up fashion, at Philadelphia and at New Orleans. Both those teams were superior to this Houston squad. Dallas also has a bye on deck so this game gets their full attention. The players know an 0-3 start heading into the break would be a very tough pill to swallow with all the expectations that come from being America's Team. On the surface Houston has looked impressive in the early going beating Indianapolis and Washington. But in giving those games a closer look we see why the Texans are a bit overrated. First off we all know that Super Bowl losers are a big play against in opening week. That's what happened to the Colts who struggled badly once again in the preseason. While Houston won that game 34-24 they were outgained in the first half 193-116. Last week they fell behind 20-7 at the break against Washington being outgained 249-198 at the break. They eventually came back and beat the Skins in overtime. While the offense has been solid the Houston defense has shown major weaknesses. This is a must win game for the Cowboys and they own the vastly superior defense. An outright Dallas victory would not surprise and in fact is expected. Houston was only 4-4 in Reliant Stadium last year losing outright to the Jets, Jaguars, Titans and Colts. Dallas adds their name to that list on Sunday. PLAY DALLAS |
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09-20-10 | New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers +6 | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
New Orleans at San Francisco
The Saints being the defending champions are going to be overpriced, especially in front of a national audience. In fact, they are already paying the price with a 1-5 spread run in regular season action. They have dropped three straight games ATS on the road. Super Bowl Champions are just 7-17 ATS in the second game of the season which makes perfect sense. They know the target is on their back and they go all out in game one to prove themselves. In turn the betting public feels all is right once again and they back the overpriced squad. That's exactly what has happened here. San Francisco was pounded on the scoreboard opening week 31-6 by Seattle. But that score doesn't really reflect the way the game was played. The 49ers actually outgained the winning Seahawks. Mike Singletary is one man you don't want mad at you and you know his team has been put through the ringer in practice this week. He's 8-2-2 ATS as an underdog and this is a very important game for the host. After facing New Orleans the 49ers go on the road to 2-0 Kansas City and NFC playoff contender Atlanta, only to return home to face the rejuvenated Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers were projected to be a playoff caliber squad this year and they have a week to stew over their poor performance opening the season. We look for a superior game from San Francisco tonight. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-19-10 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Detroit Lions +7 | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Detroit
The Eagles are off a loss at Green Bay 27-20 in a game they trailed at the half 13-3. The offense looked rejuvenated when Michael Vick entered the game as it was clear that Green Bay had not practiced much for his style of play, as he's totally different than starter Kevin Kolb who was injured early on. Now all the talking heads are boasting that Vick is back and the line has gone wild in Philadelphia's favor. But we're not drinking the Kool Aide. We saw enough of Vick and this Eagle offensive line in the preseason to know that this is an overrated team. Philadelphia has been a terrific road favorite the last decade but the key player on those teams now plays in Washington. Detroit despite being outplayed last week in Chicago really should have been awarded the victory. Sure the officials called the game by the rules but Detroit still feels in their hearts they deserved that win. Because of that we expect a strong effort from the Lions even without Matthew Stafford making the calls. Detroit has solidified their defense and have more skill position options than a season ago. With games at Minnesota and Green Bay the next two weeks this is the game in which Detroit will pull out all the stops to put an end to their seven game losing streak. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-19-10 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Ravens took a lot of money Monday night and rewarded their backers with a 10-9 victory at New York. There was a great deal of trash talking leading up to that game and now Baltimore must go on the road for the second straight week. Not only are they playing on a short week they are looking at double revenge after losing both games against the Bengals last season. In fact, Baltimore has dropped 5 of the last 7 meetings in this series. The Ravens are just 2-10 in the road favorite role and after winning Monday night have become America's darlings. This line has steadily climbed all week and now is the time to come in and back the home underdog Bengals. Unlike the Ravens the Bengals looked horrible out of the gate in a 38-24 loss to the Patriots. They fell behind early and were forced to go away from their solid run game. That likely won't be the case this week as Baltimore doesn't have as many offensive options as New England. Cincinnati is 5-2 in the home dog role and they have held the Ravens to 17 points or less in 4 of the last 5 meetings. This is an early season need game for Cincinnati as they already trail Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the divisional race. A loss here could mean a long uphill climb for Cincinnati. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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09-13-10 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs +5.5 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
San Diego at Kansas City
The Chargers are expected to run away with the AFC West as Denver, Oakland and Kansas City are all expected to finish with losing records. San Diego won 13 games a season ago yet they couldn't run the football finishing 31st in the league in that regard. Off a big winning year and knowing they are the class of this division what kind of motivation do they enter the season with? After all they beat these same Chiefs by 30 and 29 points in two meetings last year. As good as the Chargers have been they are not a good team in the road favorite role posting a 3-5 spread record the past two seasons. Last year they opened up the campaign with a 24-20 win at Oakland as a 10 point favorite. They were lucky to escape that game with an outright win. In fact, San Diego really had problems on Monday Night Football a season ago failing to cover the number by a combined 20 1/2 points in two appearances. Kansas City only posted four wins last year but they are an improving squad. As with most young clubs they look to do damage in front of their home fans. The Chiefs were once an automatic play in the home dog role before struggling in that regard the past three seasons. But the coaching staff is putting an emphasis on home games this season and in reality this game means much more to Kansas City than San Diego. Looking over the schedule Kansas City could start the season 0-5 if they don't beat the Chargers here and that just won't get it done for this successful franchise. Kansas City has the ability to run the ball on the Chargers and keep the talented San Diego passing game off the field. In the two games against San Diego last year the Chiefs had a 6 turnover deficit. That from a team who has ended the season on the short end of the turnover battle just once in the past five years. Smart money has been coming in on the home underdog the last two weeks and we agree with the line move. Grab the Chiefs while the good number remains. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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