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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-12 | New England Patriots v. Tennessee Titans +6 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
462 New England at Tennessee
Maybe we are late to the party with this one as the line has gone down from the opener, but we can't seem to feel the Titans are the right side here. Besides we want to get this one out before the line drops down to 4. There are many small sample size historical reasons to go against New England including the Super Bowl loser angle. But the truth of the matter is that we think this Tennessee team is undervalued. Other than the Cleveland Browns who very likely are the worst team in the league, the Titans are the next biggest home underdog on the Sunday card. Tennessee has been a 67% play as a home dog the last four seasons and they have a larger home field advantage against non-divisional foes. This is a team that's traditionally an afterthought in the public eye despite a 36-29 SU record the past four seasons. Tennessee also has embarrassing revenge as the last time they faced the Patriots New England won 59-0 in 2009. While many of the players have come and gone, it still leaves a bad taste in the mouths of those who remain. New England is an excellent team but backing road favorites of more than a field goal is always risky, especially in the early part of the season. Late in the year teams throw in the towel which makes the better teams a stronger play, but not early in the season when playoff dreams fill the heads of most of the players. Tennessee finished the year with a 9-7 record a season ago yet they failed to make the playoffs. Ticket counts on this game are overwhelmingly on the New England side yet the line continues to go down. A strong indicator that we are on the right side here. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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02-05-12 | NY Giants v. New England Patriots -130 | 21-17 | Loss | -130 | 47 h 51 m | Show | |
New England & NY Giants
The vast majority of the media is picking the Giants. The vast majority of the public is picking the Giants. The majority of handicappers we have talked to like the Giants. The lined opened at New England -3 1/2 and has been bet through the key number of 3 with 2 1/2's popping up all around Vegas. And that's with only 20% on the projected sports betting handle in the books. When the public arrives tonight even more money will be placed on New York. Neither team looked good in winning their respective league championship games, but only the Patriots are being punished. We all knew Tom Brady had struggled against the Ravens in his career which is a major reason why we took the points with Baltimore in that game. Before those games last week the general consensus from the Las Vegas books was that New England would be a 4 1/2 to 5 point favorite over New York if they were to meet in the Super Bowl. New England played as we projected so there should be no line movement there. But the Giants were rewarded for beating San Francisco in overtime in a game they held a plus two turnover advantage. The best way to play this game is on the money line come Sunday where we can get this at -130 or possibly -125 as the general public will play the Giants to win outright. PLAY NEW ENGLAND MONEY LINE at -135 or less These are our Top Props as of today that still have value: We take these numbers from the two most trusted off-shore sites Pinnacle and CRIS Manningham NYG Over 44 1/2 receiving yards -109 P Manningham NYG score TD Yes +192 P Total field goals missed under 1 -400 C NE over 24 1st downs +100 P Bradshaw NYG under 22 1/2 receiving yards -105 P Woodhead NEP score a TD No -400 C Mesko NEP punts under 4 -130 C NEP to have the longest KO return -116 P |
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01-22-12 | Baltimore Ravens +7 v. New England Patriots | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
Baltimore at New England
Baltimore is actually 4-4 ATS on the road this year despite a bad reputation. They beat both playoff teams they faced SU, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Only once all season has Baltimore allowed more than 27 points, projected points allowed this week at the current line is 27 1/2. Too much overreaction to last week's outcomes makes this an inflated line. In regular season action Baltimore outscored the opposition by 7.0 ppg in a division which posted a 52.1% winning record, NE 10.7 ppg in a division that posted a 41.7% winning record. New England defeated just one team that made the playoffs this year, Denver twice. They lost to Pittsburgh and the NY Giants. Pats have allowed 19 points or more in all but 4 games all season. PLAY BALTIMORE Here are the props I played on this game: Dickson receiving yards over 21 1/2 -115 Suggs under 5 1/2 tackles -110 Branch longest reception under 25 1/2 -115 Hernandez longest reception under 24 1/2 -115 Baltimore most 1st downs +3 1/2 -125 |
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01-14-12 | Denver Broncos +14 v. New England Patriots | 10-45 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
Denver at New England
Denver is 2-3 straight up against teams that made the playoffs while the Patriots are only 1-2. New England lost to the Giants by 4 and the Steelers by 8 with the lone win coming against these Broncos. The Patriots were double digits favorites three times this year against Kansas City, Buffalo and Indianapolis. Those teams combined for a 15-33 SU record, while Denver is 9-8 straight up. Since 2006 New England is 12-16 ATS as a double digit favorite. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS on the road and 8-4 straight up with Tim Tebow at quarterback. They are also 8-4 ATS when not laying points. The Broncos outgained the Patriots in the first half of the last meeting despite a 27-16 halftime deficit. We will take the generous points with the Broncos as New England still hasn't proven themselves against quality opposition. The Pats have been a major money burner in the postseason and they don't deserve to lay this type of number. PLAY DENVER |
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01-14-12 | New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers +4 | Top | 32-36 | Win | 100 | 97 h 16 m | Show |
New Orleans at San Francisco
The Saints went 5-3 straight up on the road this season with 2 of the 3 losses to St Louis and Tampa Bay, two of the worst teams in football. They own victories over Jacksonville, Carolina, Tennessee, Minnesota and Atlanta. Only Tennessee and Atlanta posted winning records at 9-7 and 10-6 respectively. The Saints beat Tennessee by 5 as a 3 1/2 point favorite and won in Atlanta in overtime as a 1 point underdog. In games against playoff teams on the road they were outscored 65-60 by Green Bay and Atlanta. So why is this team a road favorite of more than a field goal against a rested 13-3 49ers team? San Francisco has not lost a home game by more than 3 points the last 10 contests. The lone outright loss came in overtime in week two against Dallas. The 49ers faced four teams this year that reached the playoffs going 3-1 straight up and ATS. The only loss was back on Thanksgiving when they traveled cross country in a short week to play Baltimore. This is a team that won at Detroit, covering the number by 11. Beat the NY Giants, covering the number by 3, and crushed the Pittsburgh Steelers, covering the number by 14. Only once in 28 years has there been a home dog in this round of the playoffs and that team won the game outright. The Saints are a high scoring team that has done all their damage at home this year, on the road they are a mediocre team that played a schedule producing a combined record of 20 games below .500, and that included the 15-1 Green Bay Packers. Only 3 of the 8 teams they faced on the road produced more than 6 wins. We will back the under the radar 49ers playing in a very tough environment. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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01-07-12 | Detroit Lions +11 v. New Orleans Saints | 28-45 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
Detroit at New Orleans
When these two teams played five weeks ago the Saints were a 9 point home favorite in a 31-17 victory. They led at the half 24-7 as the Lions never recovered from their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers. In that game Suh was suspended and the team made every mistake possible including numerous costly penalties. Now the line is double digits and the Saints bring an 8-0 SU & ATS home mark into the contest. Teams who are undefeated ATS and SU are no pointspread bargain as this game has an inflated line. Keep in mind that the only other home game in which the Saints were a double digit favorite was against the Colts, a winless team at the time. Against the three playoff teams the Saints hosted they were favored by 3 1/2 against Houston, 9 vs Detroit and 7 against the Falcons. New Orleans is an excellent team but keep in mind that they lost to the likes of the Buccaneers and Rams, the likely two worst teams in the NFL. That's not the type of team we want any part of as a double digit favorite. In this round of the playoffs the underdogs have dominated. While we don't expect a Detroit outright victory they will be in this game throughout. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-01-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants OVER 47 | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
Dallas at NY Giants
The last five meetings in this series totaled 71, 53, 76, 55 and 64 points. The Cowboys offense put up 34 and 31 points the prior two weeks before the early Romo injury last week against the Eagles. In divisional games this year the Cowboys are allowing 26.2 points per game. The Giants have scored 24 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The lone game they were held to less than that was against the Redskins in a game they moved the ball at will and just didn't find the endzone. In a win or go home game we expect both teams to keep their foot on the gas with no lead being safe, especially considering what happened the last time these two tangled. PLAY OVER |
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01-01-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 45.5 | 24-45 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Bucs have been held to less than 20 points in 8 of the last 9 games. The last 5 meetings in Atlanta have totaled 48, 37, 23, 38 and 17 points. The earlier meeting this season was a 16-13 Falcons victory. Atlanta is coming in off a 45-16 pasting at the hands of the Saints Monday night. The last time this team gave up 40+ was the season ending contest in 2007. Overall 5 of the last 6 Atlanta home games have stayed below the posted total. Look for both teams to feature the running games as they get out of dodge without any injuries, especially a Falcons squad with the playoffs on deck. PLAY UNDER |
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01-01-12 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Oakland Raiders | 38-26 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
San Diego at Oakland
All the motivation in the world is on the shoulders of the Raiders who need this game and some help to advance to the playoffs. An Oakland team who is just about to set a record for most penalties and penalty yards in a season. The same Oakland team who hasn't ended a season with a winning record since 2002. The Raiders are 8-18 ATS as a home favorite since 2003 with the last two spread covering wins coming by 2 and 1/2 points. San Diego has lost three straight games to Oakland and would like nothing better than to keep their in-state rival out of the playoffs. With a win San Diego can also end the season with a .500 or better record for the eighth straight season. The coaching axe is finally going to fall in the off-season and these players know they are auditioning for employment for next season, whether it be with the Chargers or any other club. The last thing these pros want to be known for is throwing in the towel after being eliminated from the playoffs. After three straight 30+ point offensive efforts look for San Diego to put last week's 10 point debacle against the Lions in the rear view mirror. The Chargers want this one and they have gone 25-4 straight up the last six seasons in their final five games. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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01-01-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams +11 | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
San Francisco at St Louis
The 49ers are in position to gain a bye in the first round of the playoffs with a victory in St Louis. Not a spread covering victory, just a victory. San Francisco is a conservative offensive team that has scored 19, 19, 6, 19, 25, 24 and 13 points in their seven road games this season. That's 17.9 ppg on the road this year. San Francisco has been a road favorite just three times all season by margins of 5, 3 and 2 points. Now they are laying more than the combined points they have given on the road the entire season. The 49ers shut out the Rams in the first meeting 26-0. What motivation does this team have to blow out a divisional rival in a game where they can run the ball and get the victory without risking injuries? Not only are the Rams playing with shutout revenge from the last time these two met, but they are coming off a 27-0 shutout loss at Pittsburgh. Over the last five years double digit dogs in the last week of the season are 9-5 64% ATS. The betting markets are showing 80% of the bets on the road favorite 49ers yet the line hasn't moved. That tells us the big money is on the ugly home dog and we firmly agree. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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01-01-12 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers +4 | 41-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
Detroit at Green Bay
The Lions clinched a playoff spot with a 28-27 win over the Raiders last week in Oakland. A Detroit team who hasn't been to the playoffs in years. A Lions team who continually makes stupid mistakes with penalties killing this team all season. A young team who is celebrating the postseason like no other team in the playoffs this year. And now they are expected to go on the road and win in Green Bay for the first time since 1991, and do so by a margin. We're not buying it. Sure they can better their destination with a victory here but this isn't the type of team we want after a celebratory victory. Green Bay is sitting some of their starters this week including Aaron Rodgers. But they have Matt Flynn as the QB backup which is better than a great deal of first string starters. Green Bay hasn't lost at home in regulation in 19 games with the lone loss coming in overtime by a field goal. That's 20 games in which the Packers haven't lost here by more than 3 points. Against a divisional rival do you really think Green Bay is going to lay down and die here? The weather is expected to be a factor with high winds and precipitation. That doesn't bode well for the dome traveling Lions who have yet to beat a team going to the playoffs this season. Losses by 6 to San Francisco, by 7 to Atlanta, by 12 to Green Bay and by 14 to New Orleans. Let the gullible public run this number up and we will step in with a team looking for a 15-1 season. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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01-01-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Houston Texans +2 | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
Tennessee at Houston
The Titans need a win and a lot of help in order to make the playoffs. The same team who lost to Jacksonville, Indianapolis and this same Houston team 41-7 in their last meeting. Not only are the Titans expected to win but to do so by a margin. A team with a 3-4 straight up record on the road that hasn't won more than three road games in three seasons. This is one of those games we see every year in which need surpasses talent and the wrong team is favored here. Houston's coaching staff has already said they are coming out to win this game. Off back to back losses to Carolina and Indianapolis there is no way they want to back into the playoffs for the first time in franchise history on a three game losing streak. Besides, this is a huge rivalry game. The Texans are the home underdog with the better defense. They have held the opposition to 20 points or less in 11 of 15 games. The last three times the Titans played here the visitor scored 0, 20 and 12 points. We will gladly take the better team on a two game losing streak over a visitor in a must win situation. PLAY HOUSTON |
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01-01-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Houston Texans UNDER 39.5 | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Tennessee at Houston
Tennessee needs to win this game and get help if they entertain any ideas about making the playoffs. Therefore look for the Titans to be very careful with the football as field position becomes a key. The last three contests between these two here in Houston resulted in point totals of 20, 37 and 25. In the Titans last nine games only one contest exceeded this total and that was 41 against Cincinnati. Amazingly in 5 of their last 6 games the final point total equalled 40 points exactly, the other game produced 39 points. Houston has totaled 35, 41, 39, 27 and 33 points their last five contests. They failed to reach 21 points in every one of those games. PLAY UNDER |
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12-26-11 | Atlanta Falcons +7 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 16-45 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
Atlanta at New Orleans
Now that this game has hit 7 points we are going to jump in on the underdog Falcons. The first meeting this season resulted in a 26-23 overtime win for the Saints. The last four meetings in this series have resulted in 3 point margins with Atlanta producing a 14-5 historical ATS mark in New Orleans. Because the Falcons also play in a dome the Saints home field advantage is lessoned. Atlanta is 18-12 ATS as road dogs the past six seasons and they own a defense that has held the opposition in check on a regular basis. In regulation play the Falcons have allowed just 14, 23, 17, 14, 17, 23, 7, 16 and 17 points the past nine games. New Orleans is a very public team that scores a lot of points and is undefeated SU & ATS at home this year. So you are getting no value in backing the Saints. Keep in mind that until this year New Orleans had just one winning season as a home favorite the prior seven years. In looking over recent history between these two squads it's obvious that the Falcons have held this explosive offense in check. In regulation the Saints have managed 23, 17, 24 and 26 points the last four meetings. It's tough to cover a touchdown spread when you are held below your season to date stats. We will grab the points with the Falcons in a game that likely comes down to the final possession. PLAY ATLANTA |
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12-24-11 | Oakland Raiders +2.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Oakland at Kansas City
Love the set up for this game as the Chiefs just upset the undefeated Packers as a double digit favorite. If you watched that game it was clear that the Kansas City players acted as if they had just won the Super Bowl. While I easily cashed with the Chiefs last week I will go against them here. Kansas City is averaging just 9.1 points per game their last seven contests. Yes I'm aware that Tyler Palko started the majority of those games but even Orton and Cassell haven't excelled in this offense. Let's take a quick look at the teams the Chiefs have beaten this year. Minnesota at home by 5, at Indianapolis by 4, home against San Diego on MNF by 3 in the Philip Rivers fumble game, at Chicago with a hail mary by 7, along with last weeks win over Green Bay and a 28-0 shellacking of these Oakland Raiders. It was clear that the Packers took the Chiefs for granted so that game isn't as impressive as the scoreboard would indicate. Which brings us to the embarrassing shutout of the Raiders. The Chiefs had that game circled as they went 10-6 last year and were swept by Oakland. That game came after a bye week for Kansas City and they played a complete game against a hated rival. Now the tide has turned in the rematch. Oakland enters this game on a three game losing streak off a tough one point loss to the Lions. This is a team that is 5-2 ATS on the road this year with outright wins at Denver, Houston and San Diego. The Raiders are the better team and they have proven themselves on the road. Kansas City had all the advantages in the first game but this game means the world to the Raiders. PLAY OAKLAND |
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12-24-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 v. Tennessee Titans | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Extra two days to prepare for the Jaguars who were crushed last Thursday at Atlanta. Despite the blowout loss this is a team that can compete defensively with the Titans. In the last six games Jacksonville held four of their opponents to 14, 20, 14 and 3 points. While the offense leaves a lot to be desired the posted total shows us that 17 points likely is enough to cash this ticket. The first time these two played the Jaguars only managed 16 and that was enough for the straight up win. Keep in mind that this is a team that has held the likes of New Orleans, Pittsburgh and Baltimore in check, so if they can stay relatively even in the turnover battle the Jags can take this to the wire. The Titans have shot themselves in the foot the last two weeks against New Orleans and Indianapolis. They were in an ideal spot to make the playoffs and are now holding on by a thread to any postseason hopes. They've now gone five straight games without surpassing 23 points and that likely won't be enough to grab the cash here. Keep in mind the Titans are only averaging 19.1 points per game at home this year and that includes contests against the questionable at best defenses of Indianapolis and Tampa Bay. First one to 14 likely wins this one which puts us in a good spot with a touchdown plus underdog. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-24-11 | Arizona Cardinals +4.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Arizona at Cincinnati
The Cardinals continue to be undervalued in the betting markets despite winning 6 of their last 7 games. That includes victories over San Francisco, Dallas and Philadelphia. This is a team that has lost just three times all season by more than four points. They don't have a high scoring offense and their defensive players lack star quality, but the fact is that Arizona is a quality football team. Defensively they have held seven straight opponents to 23 points or less and that includes two games that went to overtime. Only twice all season have they lost by more that a field goal on the road. Cincinnati on the other hand have dropped 4 of their last 6 games with the victories coming against Cleveland by 3 and St Louis by 7. They have not beaten a single team all year that currently has a winning record. The Bengals have a quality defense but the offense has not improved as the season has gone on. They haven't surpassed 24 points in any of their last seven games. We expect this game to come down to the last possession in a low scoring affair. PLAY ARIZONA |
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12-24-11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 v. Carolina Panthers | 16-48 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay at Carolina
The Bucs are an ugly team right now having lost eight straight games entering Saturday play. After getting blown out on Saturday against the Cowboys nobody wants any part of Tampa Bay. In looking at the betting markets Carolina is taking in a whopping 84% of the wagers in this contest, even as a touchdown plus favorite. We've all followed the NFL for decades and we all know it's simply not that easy. Parity is the name of the game in this league, how else can you explain the Packers and Colts last week. Tampa has the extra day to prepare and they just lost to Carolina three weeks ago at home. That was the game where Freeman was expected to go and right before the game the coaching staff pulled him. The Panthers got off to an early lead and the rest is history. Tampa Bay was originally a 3 point home favorite in that game before a ton of money changed hands as Freeman was announced out. Now we find a desperate team catching more than a touchdown against an opponent that's likely reading their press clippings about now. Carolina has won 3 of their last 4 games, all against second or third string starting quarterbacks. This is still a team with a 5-9 record on the year laying more than a touchdown for the first time since 2008. They are 2-5 straight up at home this year and 4-11 outright in Bank of America Stadium the last two seasons. Carolina has turned into a public team and nobody wants any part of the visiting Bucs. It's upset time in Carolina on Sunday as the Buccanners take this one to the wire. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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12-24-11 | Miami Dolphins +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
Miami at New England
The Dolphins are looking to avenge their opening week 38-24 Monday Night Football loss to the Patriots. That 38 point output was a season high in points allowed for the Dolphins by a whopping 12. Since that time Miami has improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball holding 4 of their last 7 opponents to 14 points or less. Matt Moore has improved greatly in this offense as the season has unfolded and the offensive line problems shouldn't be a factor against this week New England defense. This is somewhat of a sandwich game for the Patriots. They are off the highly publicized showdown against Denver with Buffalo revenge on deck. Tom Brady had his worst game in his career the last time he faced the Bills and you know he has that game circled. This one, not so much. New England has owned the Dolphins as of late with wins by 14, 31and 27 the last three meetings. While much has been made about this Patriot scoring offense most of their damage has been on the road. They are just 3-3 ATS at home this season with just two of those games being double digit wins. PLAY MIAMI |
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12-22-11 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 40 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Houston at Indianapolis
Since the bye and the emergence of TJ Yates Houston games have totaled 41, 39, 27 and 33 points. In the last three contests the Texans have produced 0, 3 and 10 points by halftime. They have moved the ball pretty well but they continue to have problems finding the endzone. Defensively Houston had held seven straight opponents to under 20 points, until last week when they permitted 28 to the Panthers. With the losses last week of Baltimore and Pittsburgh Houston remains in contention for a first round playoff bye. Off a poor defensive performance we look for a nice bounce-back from this stellar defense. Indianapolis finally broke through with their first win of the season last week against Tennessee. That didn't look to be the case after scoring just 3 points in the first half. In fact, the Colts have been held to single first half points in 10 of 14 games this year. The last five games they have put up first half yardage totals of 106, 47, 89, 81 and 101 yards. So just because they put up 27 points last week against Tennessee don't think this team has solved their offensive problems. Overall 5 of the last 7 Colts games have resulted in point totals of 40 or less. Against this weak passing game of the Texans we look for a strong effort out of this Colt stop unit. PLAY UNDER |
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12-18-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Kansas City Chiefs +14.5 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
Green Bay at Kansas City
Simply put you aren't going to win in the long run laying two touchdowns on the road in the NFL. The NFL is built on parity and as good as the Packers have been the sports books will not give cash away any longer on this clearly public team. All we've heard in the Sports Books this week is how will the Chiefs be able to score enough points to keep this game competitive? In analyzing betting tickets a full 90% of the bets have been placed on the Packers yet the line has dropped from 14 to 13 1/2. There is a great deal of big money holding this line down and we firmly agree. Over the last 20 years playing on sizable home underdogs at this time of year has been golden and this game fits just about every ugly dog scenario. This is a non-conference game and the Packers finish the year against divisional rivals Chicago and Detroit. Those two teams would like nothing better than to ruin the Packers undefeated season. Despite how good this Green Bay offense has been they have allowed 23 points or more in 7 of their 13 games. Kyle Orton is scheduled to get the start for Kansas City this week which is a huge upgrade from Tyler Palco. He gives the Chiefs some semblance of a passing game which they haven't had since losing Matt Cassell. Kansas City's defense has held 7 of 13 opponents to 20 points or less. Now with a better offense those numbers will only improve as the season continues. Better field position equals better defensive numbers. The Chiefs are 12-4 ATS in the last decade as a double digit underdog and that includes a very competitive 13-9 loss here to the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this season. Simply put you have a Packers team that can do no wrong in the eyes of the betting public and a Chiefs team that has dropped 5 of their last 6 games in outright fashion. The Packers will win but the number will always be in play for the home dog Chiefs. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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12-18-11 | Cincinnati Bengals v. St. Louis Rams +7 | 20-13 | Push | 0 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
Cincinnati at St Louis
One of our favorite handicapping angles is to go against the Monday Night Football overreaction. A team looks great on MNF and the public overrates them the following week. A team looks bad and they are underrated in the betting markets. It happened again last week when Seattle pounded the Rams 30-13. We always like to take a look at public betting in the NFL because it's the one sport that is influenced by public opinion. As of this writing one source has nearly 7000 wagers placed on this game. Of those an amazing 98% are on Cincinnati. I don't believe we have ever seen such a discrepancy in an NFL game. What's more telling is that the line has actually dropped from the opener of 6 1/2 to the current 6 line. That tells us that somebody or some group with a great deal of influence is on the Rams, and we definitely agree. In the last seven games the Rams have beaten the Saints and Browns and lost to an improving Arizona team by margins of 6 and 3 points. They were beaten by double digits by Seattle twice and San Francisco. With only two wins on the season it's clear the Rams are not a good team, but they are off an embarrassing performance on national television and they have Pittsburgh and San Francisco to close out the season. This is a last chance to show the country that they are better than they have shown as of late. Cincinnati was in the think of the playoff hunt just five weeks ago. But losses to Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore and Houston have made the Bengals playoff outsiders once again. Since the bye they have faced a brutal schedule of physical defenses: Houston, Pittsburgh twice, Cleveland, Baltimore, Tennessee and Seattle. The offense which looked to be solid earlier in the season hasn't surpassed 24 points in six straight games. Off a last second collapse last week hosting Houston how can this team get up for a game they not only have to win, but do so by a margin on the road? The Bengals haven't covered as a road dog of more than 3 points since 2006. After losing outright in 4 of their last 5 games Cincinnati will be lucky to win this game straight up on Sunday. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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12-18-11 | Tennessee Titans -6.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Must win game for the Titans after coming up 5 yards short last week against the Saints. Tennessee has already gone on the road and beaten the likes of the Browns by 18, Carolina by 27 and Buffalo by 6. All superior teams to the winless Colts. The defense has permitted 24 points or less in seven straight games and that included the offenses of Carolina and New Orleans. But the key to this game comes back to the Titans need for a victory. Indianapolis cashed the last two weeks against disinterested foes New England and Baltimore. They trailed those games by 21 points each before late backdoor runs. That won't happen this week against the Titans. The Colts have averaged 15.3 points per game at home this year including losses by 8 to Cleveland, 4 to Kansas City, 14 to Jacksonville and 8 to Carolina. Because of two back door covers against disinterested opposition they are being overpriced in this match-up. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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12-18-11 | Washington Redskins +7 v. NY Giants | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
Washington at NY Giants
The Redskins are simply a much more advanced offense with Rex Grossman behind center. He has performed far better than the John Beck trial in midseason. Grossman put up 28 on the Giants in the season opener and we feel the Skins will have another strong offensive showing. Washington is 17-9-3 ATS as a road underdog and they are 11-2 ATS in that role against divisional rivals. You simply can't lay a number of this size with a New York defense that has permitted 34, 38 and 49 points the past three games. Every opponent the Skins have faced this year has scored at least 16 points. The Giants are 5-14 ATS in the role of home favorites and they have a short week as they take on in-state rival the New York Jets next Saturday before the crucial showdown with the Cowboys. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-18-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Minnesota Vikings +8 | 42-20 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
New Orleans at Minnesota
The Saints are a much better team when playing at home, and despite this being a road game in a dome remember this is the same team who lost outright at St Louis. Since 2004 New Orleans has had just one winning season as a road favorite and they are just 2-3 giving points on the road this season. They are 2-8 ATS as a road favorite of more than 4 points and this defense isn't strong enough to lay big numbers away from home. New Orleans has a big game next week hosting divisional rival Atlanta on Monday Night Football. Minnesota really impressed us last week as it's extremely rare to see a team lose the turnover battle by a whopping margin of six and still cover the spread. They have not lost at home by more than 6 points to any opponent this year and that includes Detroit, Denver and Green Bay, three teams currently slotted for the postseason. Adrian Peterson is going to start this week as well as Christian Ponder. The Vikings put up 28 and 32 points the last two weeks and they will find additional success against this Saints stop unit. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-15-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Atlanta Falcons -11 | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 24 m | Show | |
Jacksonville at Atlanta
Tough spot here for the Jags after a blowout home underdog victory and a short travel week. We've heard coaches talking about the short week games and they all say the defenses are at a big disadvantage. It takes a full week for the player's bodies to bounce back and that's especially true of the defensive players. Jacksonville has lost a great deal of talent off this defense because of injuries and the short week will be especially hurtful for that unit. Off three straight home games the Jags could be in for a very long day in Atlanta. Keep in mind the opposing quarterbacks they have faced as of late, a banged up Freeman, TJ Yates, McCoy and Painter. The only quality signal caller they faced was Rivers and he lit them up for 38 points in an obviously down year for the Charger quarterback. This game obviously means more to the Falcons who remain in the playoff hunt. With a trip to New Orleans on deck this is a must win game for the host. While we normally have to pay a price for backing teams in a must win situation the line is actually reasonable considering the scheduling situation and the Jacksonville defensive injuries. Home teams on Thursday night in a short week scenario are in an excellent spread covering spot. With the Falcon defense holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 17 or less we can confidently lay the number here. PLAY ATLANTA |
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12-11-11 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals UNDER 38.5 | 19-21 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 52 m | Show | |
San Francisco at Arizona
Three of the last four meetings in this series have resulted in final point totals of 33 points or less including a 23-7 49ers victory just three weeks ago. San Francisco is having problems reaching the end zone as they haven't scored a first half touchdown in the last four games. Defensively the Niners haven't permitted a first half touchdown in six straight games. Arizona has held the last five opponents to 23 points or less as this defense is improving by leaps and bounds. They themselves haven't surpassed that number during the same five week span as the offense hasn't clicked regardless of the quarterback. PLAY UNDER |
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12-11-11 | Houston Texans +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 44 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston at Cincinnati
The Texans have won six straight games posting a 5-0-1 spread mark, all of those victories were by 7 or more points. None of the last six opponents have scored more than 14 points against this excellent Houston stop unit. While they do have a two game divisional lead with Carolina and Indy on deck before facing Tennessee to end the season, Houston is a franchise that has failed down the stretch in the past. Therefore the Texans won't take any game for granted. Cincinnati has lost 3 of 4 games as of late posting an 0-3-1 spread mark. They have struggled this year when stepping up in class with losses to San Francisco, Pittsburgh twice and Baltimore. In first half action they have been outscored by 21, 10, 7, 7, and 10 points the past six games. If you can't get a lead against this tough Houston defense you likely will be in for a long afternoon. Especially considering the fact that Houston has scored first in 10 of 12 games this season. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-11-11 | Atlanta Falcons -2.5 v. Carolina Panthers | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 48 m | Show | |
Atlanta at Carolina
The Falcons have dominated Carolina in the last three meetings winning by 14, 21 and 21 points. Off a loss last week at Houston this is a must win game for Atlanta if they entertain any thoughts of playing in the postseason. Atlanta has been a terrific team rebounding from a defeat. They are now 15-2-2 ATS the last four years after a loss. We really like to back superior teams off a bad performance when they are facing a team they have dominated in the past, this is the right spot to back the Falcons on Sunday. Carolina is taking a huge step up after facing Indianapolis and Tampa Bay the past two weeks with backup quarterbacks. This remains a weak defensive unit that has permitted 28 points or more in 7 of 12 games this season. The Panthers are just 4-10 straight up at home the past two seasons. PLAY ATLANTA |
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12-11-11 | Indianapolis Colts +17 v. Baltimore Ravens | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 46 m | Show | |
Indianapolis at Baltimore
This is the time of year when there is plenty of value playing on bad football teams. The line is especially inflated because these teams have burned their backers on a regular basis throughout the season. We saw it with the Colts last week when they received 20 1/2 at New England and fell behind early. But they continued to play hard while the Patriots coasted. We look for more of the same here from a team still looking for their first victory. Indy is 15-8 ATS in the role of road underdog including 2-1 this year catching double digits away from home. Baltimore just played two divisional rivals and a Thanksgiving Day game against the coaches own brother. After this contest the Ravens face San Diego in a Sunday Night Football contest as well as two more divisional rivals. Off back to back double digit victories the Ravens have no reason to extend a margin here. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-11-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Tennessee Titans +4 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 50 m | Show |
New Orleans at Tennessee
The Saints are just 2-4 ATS on the road this year and are on a 5-12 ATS run away from home. After five NFC contests they end the season with 3 more NFC games, so this is the least important game on the schedule since the end of October. Teams who scored 80 points the last two games are bound to be overrated and that is exactly what we see this week in New Orleans. In four games played this year outside of domes the Saints have outscored the opposition 107-105, only one of those four opponents has a winning record. The Titans are tied for a Wild Card spot with games against Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Houston to finish the season. The Houston games is in the final week where the Texans will likely play backups for extended periods. With the easy ending schedule if the Titans win here they likely make the playoffs. The Tennessee running game is peaking and the defense hasn't permitted more than 24 points in all but two games all season. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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12-08-11 | Cleveland Browns +14.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 60 m | Show |
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
The Browns have lost 5 of their last 6 games and have been dominated in this rivalry series. Pittsburgh has beaten the Browns 14 of the last 15 meetings. Cleveland's starting quarterback and starting running back are both questionable. But this game is a statement game for Cleveland in front of a national audience and we expect the Browns to put forth a big effort. Despite a 4-8 campaign the Browns have only lost twice this season by more than this projected pointspread, two 18 point defeats. Pittsburgh is off a Sunday Night Football game against Kansas City and last week they beat divisional upstart Cincinnati. On deck for Pittsburgh is a Monday Night Football contest with the San Francisco 49ers. The Steelers haven't been overly impressive in the double digit favorite role with pointspread losses to Kansas City, Jacksonville and Indianapolis the last three in this situation. They failed to cover the spread in those contests by a combined 23 1/2 points. The Steelers beat the Browns by 32 and 18 points last year, they have no reason to get excited for this short week contest, especially with a big test on deck at San Francisco. Now just 6-16 ATS as a double digit favorite the last decade, it's the Browns who cash the ticket on Thursday. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-04-11 | Dallas Cowboys v. Arizona Cardinals +5 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
Dallas at Arizona
Dallas is coming off an incredibly easy schedule: Miami, Washington, Buffalo, Seattle, Philadelphia and St Louis. They covered just 2 of those 6 games with the last two being a 3 point overtime win and a 1 point victory. Dallas has the Giants on deck for Sunday Night Football, followed by Saturday Night Football against Tampa Bay and Saturday night Football against Philadelphia. Dallas is 2-9-1 ATS as a road favorite and they lost to Arizona outright the last two visits. Arizona has won 3 of their last 4 games and Kevin Kolb is expected back this week. Even if he doesn't start it gives the Cardinals two experienced quarterbacks available. Defensively they have allowed 18.3 ppg the last 4 contests. Arizona has played within 4 points of the number in all but three games this year while Dallas plays to the strength of their opponent. PLAY ARIZONA |
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12-04-11 | Oakland Raiders v. Miami Dolphins -3 | 14-34 | Win | 106 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Oakland at Miami
The Raiders produced just a single touchdown in last weeks win over the Bears. They are without their breakaway rusher and the quarterback play has been unimpressive. If it wasn't for an outstanding kicking game the Raiders would be long out of the playoff picture. Oakland is traveling east to play in an early time start which traditionally has been a negative for the west coast squad. This is the Raiders third road game in four weeks and they travel to Green Bay next Sunday. Miami is playing solid ball over the last six weeks outscoring the opposition by 59 points. They have cashed 5 straight and that number would have been 6 if not for the huge comeback win the Broncos pulled in an 18-15 overtime loss. While Miami does have a minimal home field advantage the travel situation for the Raiders negates that. Miami's defense has been terrific as of late holding the opposition to 26 points or less in every one of their games this season except the opener against New England. PLAY MIAMI |
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12-04-11 | Oakland Raiders v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 43 | 14-34 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
Oakland at Miami
Oakland hasn't surpassed 27 points in any of their last eight games as the early season outputs of 35 and 34 against Buffalo and the Jets are looking like an outlier. The Raider defense is improving weekly holding 5 of 7 opponents to 21 or less. No Miami game has surpassed this total since opening week against the Patriots. The Dolphin defense has held the last four opponents to a combined 40 points. PLAY UNDER |
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11-27-11 | Chicago Bears +4 v. Oakland Raiders | 20-25 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
Chicago at Oakland
This game was lined at Chicago -1 1/2 before the news of the Cutler injury surfaced. The initial line move went way to far as the drop-off at quarterback isn't nearly as pronounced as the one in Indianapolis this year. Chicago has a far more talented cast that the one with the Colts. While the line has now made a bit of return to where it should be there is still plenty of value at this current number. The best unit on the field by far will be the Chicago defense and anytime you can get more than a field goal with the much better defense it's often the right call. The Bears will rely on a strong running game and field position in order to gain the "W" here. And teams many times exceed expectations in the first game after a key injury. Oakland has injuries of their own as they are without their starting quarterback and running back. They have played a steady diet of bad football teams as of late after facing Minnesota, San Diego, Denver, Kansas City and Cleveland. Despite the weak opposition the Raiders only managed a 3-2 record in those games. Now they step up to face a true playoff contender with or without Jay Cutler. Off back to back road wins we look for Oakland to come back to form here as the Chicago defense rules. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-27-11 | Carolina Panthers v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 45 | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 73 h 0 m | Show |
Carolina at Indianapolis
The Colts have permitted 23 points or more to all but one opponent this season. While the offense has produced 3, 7, 10 and 7 points the past four games, the bye week is sure to help this struggling unit. Carolina has given up 20 points or more to all but one opponent this season, and that was the offensively inept Jaguars. Even Arizona and Washington have had offensive success against the Panthers. PLAY OVER |
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11-20-11 | San Diego Chargers v. Chicago Bears -3.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
San Diego at Chicago
The Chargers enter play off: NY Jets (AFC Playoff Team), Kansas City (MNF divisional rival), Green Bay (SB Champs), Oakland (TNF divisional rival). On deck they have Denver (divisional rival), Jacksonville (MNF), so this could be the least important game on the Chargers schedule. They haven't beaten a team with a winning record all year with wins against Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami and Denver. San Diego lost to every playoff caliber team they have faced, by margins of 14 to New England, 6 to NY Jets, 7 to Green Bay and 7 to Oakland. Stats show this is a 7 to 8 win team but the line shows they are a 9 to 10 win team. The Bears sit at 6-3 on the season and have a very easy schedule the remainder of the season. They may only be an underdog once, at Green Bay. Since tightening up the pass protection this team has scored 37, 30, 24 and 39 points. The defense has held five straight opponents to 24 points or less including Detroit twice and Philadelphia. The Bears could easily go 12-4 on the year while San Diego could end up 6-10, this pointspread is a bargain. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-20-11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49 | 26-35 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 40 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay at Green Bay
The Buccaneers' offense has really struggled as of late scoring 18 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Against good defenses they are averaging just 11.5 points per contest. We saw a preview of this type of game earlier when the Pack faced the Rams. Green Bay took an early lead and took the air out of the ball in coasting to a victory. With a Thanksgiving Day game on deck, in a very short prep week, we look for the Packers to run a lot of clock here. In turn easily staying under the number. PLAY UNDER |
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11-20-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars +1 v. Cleveland Browns | 10-14 | Loss | -101 | 42 h 47 m | Show | |
Jacksonville at Cleveland
Jaguars are the fresher team having a bye two weeks ago and a semi-bye last week facing the Colts. They are now 3-0-1 ATS the past four games as their solid defense and running game continues to be underrated in the betting markets. Jacksonville has struggled to put up points on the road this year scoring 17, 14, 13, 10 and 3. That either means they are a bad offensive team or an improving offensive team depending on how you interpret the numbers. What we know about the Browns is that they are a bad offensive team. Cleveland has scored 17 points or less in all but one of their games this season. The only time they scored more was against the winless Indianapolis Colts. The Cleveland defense for the most part has been good, but the mounting pressure of a terrible offense is starting to wear them down. With wins over Indy, Miami and Seattle by a combined margin of 12 points the Browns have proven they can't be trusted in a win and cover situation. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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11-20-11 | Cincinnati Bengals +7 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 48 h 43 m | Show |
Cincinnati at Baltimore
This is one line we expect to drop by game time. The Bengals continue to be a team that is underrated in the betting marketplace. They are 7-2 ATS on the season with the pointspread losses coming against San Francisco and Pittsburgh by a combined 9 1/2 points. Cincinnati is a team with an excellent defense that has held every opponent faced this year to 24 points or less. The Bengals match up very well with the Ravens having won 3 of the last 4 meetings outright while cashing every contest. Defensively they have held Baltimore to 13, 10, 7 and 14 points the last four meetings. Baltimore will be without Ray Lewis this week, which not only hurts their on field defense but he calls the defensive plays. This is a team that has already lost to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle and has been an enigma to sports bettors worldwide. This is also a short week for the Ravens as they host San Francisco Thanksgiving Day. The Ravens haven't played well for a while now with losses to Jacksonville and Seattle surrounding a 3 point come from behind home win over Arizona and a last minute 3 point victory at Pittsburgh. The Ravens could be the most overrated team in the league. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-13-11 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets -1 | Top | 37-16 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
New England at NY Jets
The Patriots have faded fast since the last time these two met. They have dropped two straight outright and three straight to the number. The offense which produced 13 straight games of 30 points or more has been held to 20 or less each of the last three weeks. The opposition has gotten physical with the receivers and New England lacks a down field threat to stretch the defense. The Patriots lost the last two times they visited New York 28-14 and 16-9. The Jet defense have really held Brady and company in check on this field as of late. Many will point to Coach Belichick and his terrific pointspread record off a loss, but that didn't help last week against the Giants and the dominant days of the Patriots could be over. The Jets are a different team defensively when playing in The Meadowlands. The last 15 games here they have allowed a total of 177 points, just 11.8 points per game. Looking to avenge a 30-21 setback earlier in New England we look for that defense to be the dominant unit on the field. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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11-13-11 | Washington Redskins v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 38 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 39 m | Show | |
Washington at Miami
This may be too obvious but we're looking for a low scoring contest here in Florida. The total has been adjusted but in our minds not nearly enough. The Redskins have gone under this posted total 5 of the last 6 games with point totals of 30, 23, 33, 27 and 34. All against teams with a better or equal offense to the Dolphins. This Washington team hasn't scored more than 14 first half points in any game, and the last four weeks they have managed 12 combined points by halftime. Defensively only one opponent all season has put up more than 23 against this Skins stop unit. Miami has scored 17 points or less in 6 of their 8 games this season. Overall 6 of the 8 games played have produced less than this current total. Defensively the Dolphins have held all but one opponent to 26 points or less. The last three weeks they have allowed 3, 20 and 18 points, the later in overtime. Both of these clubs have struggled tasting victory this season. In a winnable game for both clubs we expect a close to the vest, field position type game. PLAY UNDER |
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11-13-11 | Buffalo Bills +5.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 7-44 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
Buffalo at Dallas
There's a great deal of public perception built into this line as Buffalo has one of the smallest fan bases in the NFL and the Cowboys one of the largest. Buffalo has been far more successful against quality teams this year with wins over Oakland, New England and Philadelphia. The only losses were to Cincinnati on the road by 3, the Giants on the road by 3 and last week hosting the Jets. The Bills are better rested after a bye two weeks ago while Dallas had their bye five weeks back. In games outside of Buffalo the Bills have covered the number by a combined 51 points. Dallas has beaten just one team all year with a winning record, San Francisco in week two 27-24. The Niners led that game from start to the very end of regulation before the Cowboys made a late comeback to force overtime. Dallas' other victories have come against Washington, St Louis and Seattle, three of the worst teams in the league. The Cowboys have hated rival Washington on deck followed by a Thursday game with Miami. Now 2-8 ATS the last two seasons as a home favorite the Cowboys remain the most overrated squad in the NFL. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-13-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 50 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
New Orleans at Atlanta
Saints in division have gone under 13 of 15 games with one of those contests going over in overtime. This game will go a long way in determining the divisional champ so we expect a conservative game plan. Saints on the road have scored more than 24 points just twice in last 7 games. Falcons defense hasn't permitted more than 28 points in six games, the last 3 opponents reach 7, 16 and 17 points. That includes the likes of the Lions and Panthers. PLAY UNDER |
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11-06-11 | Cleveland Browns v. Houston Texans UNDER 41 | 12-30 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 56 m | Show | |
Cleveland at Houston Under
The Browns have only surpassed 17 points once all season and that was against the winless Colts. They are now down to their third string running back and they just brought back a rusher who they cut before the season. Cleveland wins with defense and field position which will be a key here. The Browns have held 4 of 7 opponents to 20 points or less. Houston has faced three quality defenses this season scoring 17 against Pittsburgh, 14 against Baltimore and 24 against Jacksonville. Offensive injuries are another concern for the host. The betting public still thinks of the Texans as an offensive team but it's the defense which is playing better ball. Overall 5 of 8 opponents have been held to 14 points or less. Look for defense and ball control to be the key as this game stays under the key number of 41. PLAY UNDER |
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11-06-11 | Atlanta Falcons v. Indianapolis Colts +7.5 | 31-7 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 53 m | Show | |
Atlanta at Indianapolis
The Falcons entered the bye off two satisfying wins over Detroit and Carolina. They face division leading New Orleans next weekend, a team that they have lost to 4 of the last 5 meetings. In the meantime they face the winless Indianapolis Colts. So I ask you, what team do you think the Falcons were preparing the most for on their bye week, Indy or New Orleans? Atlanta is off that solid win over the Lions but overall they have not fared overly well on the road this season. They are 1-3 ATS away from the Georgia Dome including an embarrassing loss in the opener at Chicago and a 30-28 win in Seattle. They also lost a divisional game at Tampa Bay 16-13. Despite starting the season 0-8 keep in mind that they just played three straight games on the road at Cincinnati, New Orleans and Tennessee. The Colts were just about to cover that Bengal game before a terrible turnover brought Indy backers to their knees. The Saints and Titans were just off horrendous divisional losses and were playing with a chip on their shoulders. We do not see any such motivation from the Falcons here in an obvious sandwich situation. Teams that start the season 0-4 are money makers thru out NFL history. Off three straight games on the road and without another traveling situation until December 4th we see plenty of value in the Colts the next month. It all starts here. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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11-06-11 | Cleveland Browns +11.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
Cleveland at Houston
Running backs are probably the most overrated players on a football team. Sure you do have your elite rushers but overall they are a dime a dozen. Cleveland this week is without their top two ball carriers so they are a bit underrated in the betting marketplace. But in reality, the guys who are out were nothing better than replacement level. Now that we are getting double digits we feel the Browns are worthy of a wager here. Keep in mind Cleveland only received 9 points last week at San Francisco, a superior team to the Texans. Let's take a quick look at who the Texans have beaten this year. Winless Indianapolis, winless Miami, a banged up Pittsburgh team, Tennessee and Jacksonville coming off a huge Monday Night Football victory. Despite a very weak schedule Houston hasn't been a favorite of this size all season. In fact, they have yet to cover the spread as a double digit favorite in over a decade. Sure the Cleveland offense isn't very good, that's why they are the underdog here. But the Browns can play defense as witnessed by holding 5 of 8 opponents to 14 points or less. This is one underdog with plenty of bite. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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10-31-11 | San Diego Chargers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 20-23 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
San Diego at Kansas City
The Chargers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series with the lone loss coming in the season opener a year ago. That was a game that Kansas City won 21-14 despite being outgained by 192 yards. The Chiefs were held to 9 first downs and 197 yards and still put up 21 points. That's not likely to happen again. San Diego beat the Chiefs earlier this year 20-17 in an obvious flat spot after facing New England the previous week. Now after blowing a large lead to the Jets, the Chiefs have the Chargers full attention. San Diego traditionally struggles out of the gate but this is the time of year they start to put it all together. They are 24-11-1 ATS the past four seasons from game seven on. Kansas City suffered tremendous losses to key players early on and started the year 0-3. In the last three weeks they have been able to even their record with wins over Minnesota, Indianapolis and Oakland. With a win yesterday the Vikings have two wins on the season, the Colts are winless and they faced the Raiders with a huge quarterback problem after the starter went down the previous week. So despite three straight victories the wins were flawed. Now they take on a team that has dominated them in the past and is motivated. With the line dropping from 3 1/2 to 3 we will step in with the far better team with something to prove. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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10-30-11 | Detroit Lions v. Denver Broncos UNDER 42.5 | 45-10 | Loss | -103 | 96 h 48 m | Show | |
221/222 Detroit at Denver
The Lions started the season on fire offensively but have came back down to earth the last month. Over the last three games Detroit has scored 16, 19 and 24 points with the final total points scored in those games being 39, 44 and 37. Keep in mind that in all three of those contests both the Lions and their opponents had their opening day starting quarterbacks. That won't be the case here. Because of the injury to Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill has been taking the reps with the first string offense. Even if Stafford does play he will be hampered and likely not have taken many if any snaps in practice. Starting running back Jahvid Best is also injured so the Detroit offense which has scored a combined 26 first half points the last five games will be severely hampered. Defensively the Lions have held all but one opponent to under 26 points, so we look for a conservative game plan from the Detroit coaching staff. Denver has made the quarterback change to Tebow and the Broncos were rewarded with a victory last week against the Dolphins. Denver played a field position game and we will likely see another conservative game plan here. Tebow is a running quarterback who throws short passes, that means lots of time off the clock without any big play possibilities. Defensively Denver has held 4 of 5 opponents to 23 points or less with only the potent Green Bay offense lighting this team up. It's very possible by game time that we will see two quarterbacks behind center that were listed as second and third string coming out of camp. If Hill is announced the starter this line tumbles, regardless we look for a low scoring defensive struggle out of both teams. PLAY UNDER |
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10-30-11 | Washington Redskins v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 46 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 34 m | Show | |
219/220 Washington at Buffalo
The Redskins are decimated at the skill positions. They are without their starting QB that opened the season, without their best receiver and starting running back, Washington is also without former All-Star TE Cooley. This was a team who hasn't surpassed 28 points all season even with all the injured players on the field. Despite what we saw last week in Carolina this is a strong defensive team. They have held all but one opponent to 21 points or less, including holding half their opponents under the 20 point mark. Without a healthy offense Washington will be conservative and let their defense win the game. Buffalo has put a lot of points on the board against flawed defenses but they have been held in check when facing solid stop units. They scored 20 against Cincinnati and 24 two weeks ago against a talented but thin Giants defense. Defensively Buffalo has faced some very good quarterbacks this season but that won't be the case here. The Bills will not have to trade points like they did against the likes of the Raiders, Eagles and Patriots. Therefore we look for Buffalo to be conservative offensively knowing Washington doesn't have the weapons to make this a shootout. PLAY UNDER |
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10-23-11 | Indianapolis Colts +14.5 v. New Orleans Saints | 7-62 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 57 m | Show | |
Indianapolis at New Orleans
In looking over the Indy schedule the team has played a bevy of quality defenses, at least teams with superior defensive units compared to offensive groupings. In fact, you could be as bold to say that the defense they will face on Sunday night is likely the weakest stop unit they have faced, and will face until they take on Carolina on November 27th. So to catch two touchdowns in a game in which Vegas expects them to put points on the board is too much of an advantage to ignore. Since Painter has taken over behind center he has thrown just a single interception and the offense has been far less conservative. The Colts will score in the 20's here which should be plenty against a tired New Orleans squad. The Saints return home off three straight road games and they own a defense than has been burned for 26 points or more in 4 of their 6 games. The head coach has missed time this week because of knee surgery, and the line is inflated because of this being the Sunday Night Football contest. We all know the quickest way to the poorhouse is to lay double digits in the NFL and New Orleans is 3-8 in that role the last decade. The Colts have been very competitive since the coaching change and the value play is clearly on the dog. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-23-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 43 | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh at Arizona
The Steelers have faced a bevy of tough defenses in Baltimore, Seattle, Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville. Offensive numbers are skewed based on the strength of opposing defenses faced. Arizona defense has permitted 21 or better to all but one opponent, that being the weak scoring unit of Seattle. The Cards have moved the ball against weaker defensive opposition and the Steelers are very banged up on that side of the ball. We're getting a cheap number based on Pittsburgh's public perception. PLAY OVER |
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10-23-11 | Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 v. Oakland Raiders | 28-0 | Win | 100 | 48 h 47 m | Show | |
Kansas City at Oakland
This has been a road dominated series with the visitor cashing 9 of the last 10 meetings. Kansas City comes in off a bye while the Raiders were off two very emotional contests due to the death of owner Al Davis. At 2-3 on the season the Chiefs who are the defending divisional champs know this is a must win game with San Diego on deck next Monday night. Oakland with either quarterback at the helm will likely be a one-dimensional offense and Kansas City just beat two of those squads in Minnesota and Indianapolis. Oakland is coming off two straight wins and has the bye on deck. Both quarterbacks for the Raiders have serious flaws. Boller has never been anything but a career backup and Palmer hasn't taken any NFL snap in months. Keep in mind he doesn't know the playbook and he hasn't been the same quarterback since his knee surgery. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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10-23-11 | Houston Texans v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 44.5 | 41-7 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 54 m | Show | |
Houston at Tennessee
Texan's defense still not getting enough credit and the offense has been limited based on injuries and poor production. Houston has been held to 14, 20 and 17 points the last three weeks and the Titan's defense is strong enough for that to continue. Tennessee offense has been held to 14 vs Jacksonville, 17 against Denver and 17 vs Pittsburgh. Houston has the stop unit to live up to the task. This is a big game for the divisional lead, we expect a conservative game plan from both teams. PLAY UNDER |
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10-17-11 | Miami Dolphins +7.5 v. NY Jets | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Miami at New York
The Dolphins have taken 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series and every win was as an underdog. Matt Moore is behind center tonight for the Fish as he takes over from an injured Chad Henne. While Moore has never been considered a solid starter in this league the drop-off is minimal. Henne has had a 31-37 TD to INT ratio the last two plus seasons here. Defensively the Dolphins have held 3 of 4 opponents to 26 points or less and that includes the powerful offenses of San Diego and Houston. The last five times Miami visited New York (New Jersey) they won three times and never lost by more than 3 points in any game. The Jets are an overrated team right now with a 2-3 record. One of those victories coming against Jacksonville and the other being gift wrapped by the Dallas Cowboys. Center Mangold while expected to play is not at full strength. He's a huge difference maker for this offense and he likely won't play the entire game. New York hasn't had a winning spread mark as a home favorite since 2006 as they continue to play down to their competition. Defensively the Jets have let their last three opponents score 30 points or more, not what we want from a touchdown favorite. Miami is a winless team coming off a bye and teams in that situation are now 22-4 ATS. With an extra week to prepare Moore should be primed for a solid night behind center. PLAY MIAMI |
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10-16-11 | Dallas Cowboys +7.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 101 h 39 m | Show |
Dallas at New England
We've made money this year fading the Cowboys but this is the right time to back a talented team at a very good price. Dallas is off a 34-30 loss to the Lions in which they collapsed down the stretch. They then had to sit around and think about that for an extra week as they had their bye last Sunday. Now with just a 2-2 record they simply can't wait to get back on the field. Even more importantly the Cowboys are quickly getting healthy as the extra week of rest has put Dallas in the most healthy position they have been in all season. Now on a 7-2 ATS run the past 2+ seasons as a road underdog we catch Dallas getting an inflated number based on the early season success of the Patriots. Last week's victory over the Jets was huge for the Patriots. It was not only a playoff revenge game for New England but it was against their most hated rival. You can tell just how much New England pointed to that contest based on the post-game remarks. The Boston beat writers said they have never seen Bill Belichick in a better mood. He was joking with the press and actually felt relieved by the victory. That's not the type of situation that can be good for a team that has tasted major success in the past. It will be hard for the coaching staff to get this team up this week with a bye on deck. This game also fits into one of our favorite NFL systems. Teams that win and cover the previous week as a sizable favorite often fail in that role the following week. This system actually makes a great deal of sense as the team becomes complacent after a satisfying win and they know they should have little trouble in the following game. We saw it after the Jets victory last week in the team's emotions, we see it on the field on Sunday. PLAY DALLAS |
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10-16-11 | St. Louis Rams +15.5 v. Green Bay Packers | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 55 m | Show | |
St Louis at Green Bay
Let's cut to the chase. The Rams because of their injuries are one of the worst teams in the league. The Packers are the Super Bowl Champs. Now that we have gotten that out of the way it's time to start handicapping this game. First off, it's the NFL where parity makes it's home. Laying double digits in the NFL historically has been the fastest way to the poorhouse. This year alone laying 10 points or better has gotten backers a 2-5 ATS return. And this has been the season of the haves and have nots. St Louis is 0-4 on the year but they have yet to be an underdog of more than 7 points. They played Philadelphia, the NY Giants, Baltimore and Washington and yet they still haven't been an underdog of more than a touchdown. Here's the stat you are going to hear all week long. Winless teams coming out of a bye are now 22-3 ATS. It's makes a great amount of sense. The team has to hear for two weeks just how bad they are. From the coaching staff, from the media, from their fans and even their families. If that's not enough motivation their opponent knows they are playing a winless team and they come into the game overconfident. Green Bay just played on Sunday Night Football against the team they knocked out of the playoffs, the Atlanta Falcons. Since that game the Atlanta players had been bad mouthing Green Bay saying that when they faced them again they would show who the better team is. If that wasn't motivation for Green Bay I don't know what is. Now after playing the lowly St Louis Rams the Pack heads to Minnesota for a divisional game against Minnesota before their bye week. The Packers beat the Vikings twice last year including 31-3 at Minnesota in a game the Vikings have circled. So how interested will the Packers be this week against the Rams? The last time Green Bay was a home favorite of 14 points or more they beat Detroit last year 28-26. Green Bay is 5-0 on the season and the only game they didn't cover was a backdoor touchdown by the Panthers. The public loves them and they hate the Rams. This is why the 22-3 pointspread mark works. Joe Sixpack will be backing the Pack while the people who bet for a living will hold their noses and back the Rams. It's still the NFL right? PLAY ST LOUIS |
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10-16-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +1.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 41 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Washington
The believers in the must win theory are out in full force here as Philadelphia has taken money moving to -1 1/2 in many places. With a bye next week the Eagles simply cannot afford to drop to 1-5 right? Here's a simple handicapping tip: Teams in a must win situation are there for a reason, they didn't win in the past when they had to. Sort of like the due system, this team is due to win for no other reason than they can't simply be this bad. But the truth of the matter is that the Eagles have been in a must win season before, and yet they still can't find a way to win. This was a team that entered the year with Super Bowl expectations and now sits at 1-4 on the season. Do you really think they can just turn it on just because they need to win? If the Eagles were indeed that good they wouldn't have a 1-4 record. Philadelphia offensively moves the ball at will but they cannot hold on to the football. Whether it's a strength and conditioning problem or a mental problem we just can't see this changing overnight. Defensively the Eagles have permitted 31, 24, 29 and 35 points the last four games. That came against the likes of the Bills, 49ers, Giants and Falcons. None of those teams were considered to be the elite offenses coming into the season. The secondary has major problems and can be lit up against lesser competition. Washington has an extra week to prepare against a divisional rival they know extremely well. The Redskins also have major revenge from a 59-28 loss here last season. Keep in mind that the Skins have split with the Eagles the last eight meetings, so it hasn't been a one sided affair. The underdog in this series has cashed 7 of 9 meetings. This Washington defense will be the most talented group on the field. In the first four weeks they have held the opposition to 10, 18, 21 and 14 points. Say what you want about Rex Grossman but the man cashes tickets. The last two years Washington is 6-1 ATS with Grossman at the helm. This is a confident team with a bit of payback on their minds against a veteran team who has seen their entire season come crashing down. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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10-10-11 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions -5.5 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Chicago at Detroit
This is an extremely important game for the 2-2 Bears because they are way behind Detroit and Green Bay in the division. Which is why this line is at a reasonable number because Detroit is clearly the more talented team. Chicago has played 3 of 4 games at home and in their only road contest they were torched 30-13 at New Orleans. This is a team that has permitted 29, 27 and 30 points the past three weeks and doesn't possess an offense capable of trading scores. The offensive line has had major problems keeping Jay Cutler upright and now they face one of the most talented front sevens in the NFL. Detroit has a score to settle here as Chicago has beaten them six straight times. But this isn't your father's Lions team. This is a squad that has proven that they can score on anybody and possesses a defense that has all the parts to build on. Detroit has scored 27, 48, 26 and 34 points thus far, but they have yet to do so against a defense with a name like the Bears. That's plenty of motivation for Detroit in addition to keeping up with the Packers. This team has found a way to win close games in three of four weeks, and they believe in their quarterback. The same thing cannot be said of Chicago. It's payback time in Detroit tonight and with the line less than a touchdown the Lions are the clear fundamental play. PLAY DETROIT |
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10-09-11 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
New York at New England
All-Pro Center Mangold returns for the Jets here to not only protect Sanchez but also to reinvigorate the running game. With Mangold in the lineup this Jets team goes from pedestrian at best to a clear offensive force. Other than quarterback, a center of this magnitude is the most important player on the field offensively and his return has not been much of a factor in the pointspread either side or total. Overall 15 of the last 19 regular season games for the Jets have surpassed the posted total. Now they are going against a Patriot defense that has yielded point totals of 24, 21, 34 and 19 to start the season. New England has now scored 30 or more points in an amazing 12 straight games. The last four games against the Jets, New England has averaged 27.8 ppg. The Jets have now permitted 4 of their last 5 opponents to reach 24 points or more including 34 points each of the last two weeks. This is the third straight road game for the Jets, which hasn't happened in at least the last five seasons. That's a terrible spot to put a defense in that's struggling, especially against a quarterback like Brady. If Belichick wants to run up the score here he will, and we all know he does after losing to the Jets in the playoffs last season. PLAY OVER |
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10-09-11 | Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 v. Buffalo Bills | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 50 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Buffalo
A sure sign of capturing public perception is a slow walk through a Las Vegas sportsbook. While out making my early week betting rounds, the most talked about fact on the weekend card has been "How can the Eagles be favored in Buffalo?". These comments have not come from the wise guys who make their livings off betting on sports, but the guys who hang out in the books and bet parlays. You know the guys, the people who scream at the televisions as though the players can hear them. I'm making light of the situation but the truth of the matter is the Bills are a public team while Joe Sixpack has taken a bath betting "The Dream Team" the last three weeks. That provides us with plenty of value backing the better team in a must win situation. Philadelphia has been one of those squads that's come up short in the coin-flip games. A late injury to Michael Vick opened the door for Atlanta three weeks ago and last week the 49ers were able to stage a huge comeback against the Eagles. With any type of luck this team would be 3-1 and sitting pretty in the minds of sports bettors coast to coast. Buffalo on the other hand has been fortunate in the coin-flip games with back to back amazing comebacks against the Raiders and Patriots. That coin fell the other way last week against Cincinnati. Keep in mind that just two weeks ago the Bills were receiving a full touchdown from the Patriots, and now the line is less than a field goal. Both the Eagles and Patriots have dynamic offenses and major flaws defensively, but in just four weeks the Bills have become the flavor of the month. We're not buying into a team that could easily be 1-3 right now with the lone win coming over a severely injured Kansas City squad. This play screams value on the Eagles as the wise guys do battle with Mr. Joe Sixpack. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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10-09-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Buffalo Bills OVER 49.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 47 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Buffalo
In watching the Eagles this year it's clear that they have the weapons to be a dominant offensive force. Even with a leaky pass blocking scheme Michael Vick has proven himself with his arm as well as his legs. The running game is sound and nobody has better big play weapons in the passing game. The problem for Philadelphia has been a lack of killer instinct. They are averaging 30 points and a whopping 240 yards in the first half this season yet they don't keep the pedal to the metal in the second half. After blowing a huge lead last week against the 49ers we can't see that being a theme this time around. After facing the Giants, Falcons and 49er defenses the last few weeks we can see a big offensive output here from the Eagles. The last three weeks Philadelphia allowed point totals of 35, 29 and 24 points to less than top tier offensive squads. This Buffalo offense has proven they can put up points against non-elite defenses. The first three weeks the Bills scored 41, 38 and 34 points against the Chiefs, Raiders and Patriots. This Eagle stop unit is in the same class as those three squads and we see this as an offensive showcase from both teams. PLAY OVER |
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10-09-11 | Tennessee Titans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 42 h 40 m | Show | |
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Tennessee on the surface has been very impressive thus far with a 3-1 record with victories over Baltimore, Denver and Cleveland. But keep in mind that they are the only team to lose to Jacksonville, and the Ravens were clearly not prepared in week two after blowing out their huge divisional rival Pittsburgh opening week. That leaves victories over Denver at home by 3 points and a 31-13 win at Cleveland. After seeing Denver at 1-3 with the only victory being a 2 point win over Cincinnati at home we can discount that win. We don't think much of the 2-2 Browns who own wins over Miami and Indianapolis who are a combined 0-8 on the season. So despite a 3-1 record the Titans just aren't that impressive, especially in this price range on the road against a veteran team in a foul mood. Pittsburgh is 25-8 straight up at home the past 4+ seasons. The last time they were on this field they pitched a shutout. In fact, 4 of the last 5 games here resulted in opposing point totals of 0, 3, 7 and 3. Pittsburgh is a team going through major injuries right now but they are getting key players back on the offensive line, and this is a squad that cannot fall any further behind Baltimore in the division race. Veteran teams with the pedigree of the Steelers are rarely priced in this pointspread range at home. The line value along with the Pittsburgh pride factor clearly point us in the direction of the Steelers here. Tennessee's wins over a questionable schedule enhances our value. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-09-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers +7 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 43 m | Show |
New Orleans at Carolina
Not a good spot here for the Saints who are in the middle of three straight road games, off a satisfying win last week with a divisional match-up at Tampa Bay on deck. New Orleans is a high scoring team which is always overrated by the public. They are sure to take the 1-3 Panthers lightly here which would be a mistake, especially considering they beat Carolina in this building 34-3 a season ago. After facing Tampa Bay next week the Saints play on Sunday Night Football the following week. Keep in mind that the Saints barely escaped at home against Carolina last year in a 16-14 victory and that the Panthers have actually won 3 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Carolina is just one point away from producing a perfect 4-0 spread mark. They have proven time and time again that they play the entire four quarters. While teams like the Vikings and Eagles become lackadaisical, the Panthers off a 2-14 team remain extremely hungry. In this price range Carolina is a live dog and they have already proven themselves to be a backdoor covering machine. That's exactly what we expect here as the Panthers give the Saints all they can handle. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-03-11 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 40.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay
The Colts offense has struggled thus far but with a full week of reps we expect Curtis Painter to be able to move the ball against this questionable Tampa defense. The Bucs finished in the middle of the pack last year but have really struggled out of the gate, especially considering they have faced Minnesota and Atlanta who have shown offensive inconsistencies. Indy has faced the likes of Cleveland, Houston and Pittsburgh, all teams with solid stop units. This will likely be the worst defense they have faced thus far. Tampa Bay has proven that they can score on anyone as witnessed against three good defenses in Minnesota, Detroit and Atlanta. They should have little problem finding success against an Indy team that has permitted 34, 27 and 23 thus far. When the games have been in the balance in the first half the Colts are allowing 19.3 points and 216.7 yards in half a game. With this being a rare national television audience for Tampa we expect the Bucs to pull out the offensive playbook and try to impress the nation. Look for a high scoring contest. PLAY OVER |
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10-02-11 | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 17-22 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
Minnesota at Kansas City
If you've watched any of the performances from these two this season you are well aware that the Vikings are clearly the superior unit. They have been in all three games they have played, only to fall apart in the second half and end up on the losing end. While extremely frustrating to Minnesota players and fans this team still believes in themselves. Minnesota has the far better skill position players even though neither team has what you would consider to be an above average signal caller. Donovan McNabb has never been a poster child for NFL quarterbacks but he does know how to manage a game. Adrian Peterson will be far and away the best player to get his hands on the ball on Sunday. In all three games to start the season Minnesota has been first to score which should be a big advantage here. Kansas City is averaging just 3.3 points in first halves this season. They lost their best defender for the season. They lost their starting tight end for the year. Most importantly RB Jamaal Charles is gone for the season, and he was the glue that kept this team together offensively a season ago with 1467 rushing yards. Matt Cassel had a rib injury in the preseason and it's obviously affected his downfield passing. Therefore the Chiefs simply cannot sustain enough offense to keep their battered defense off the field. Kansas City is averaging 9 ppg on the year and they simply do not have the weapons to put on a second half surge that has crushed the Vikings the past. San Diego, Tampa Bay and Detroit all have healthy young quarterbacks that rallied the troops the past three weeks. A devastated Kansas City offense can't even compare. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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10-02-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
New Orleans at Jacksonville
Can't see the Saints being up for this game after just playing Green Bay, Chicago and Houston with division games with Carolina and Tampa Bay on deck. Last week's game had to take a lot out of this team as it was a nip and tuck affair throughout. New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of a touchdown or more the last two seasons. This is also their first of three straight games on the road with the next two as we mentioned coming against divisional rivals. The Saints were 2-4 ATS as road favorites last year with neither game being at this pointspread level. The New Orleans offense has been excellent as expected but this defense which improved last year is allowing slightly less than 30 points per game. Those are not the type of numbers we want to lay with a touchdown road favorite in the NFL. Jacksonville is 17-10-1 ATS as a home dog the past 9+ years. With a 1-2 record and scoring just 3 and 10 points the past two weeks the Jags will be fully focused here. Jacksonville has been a home underdog of more than a field goal just once the past two seasons. As a 7 point dog last year to Indianapolis the Jags won outright 31-28 over the Colts. New England backers learned a hard lesson last week in that you don't lay a touchdown as a road favorite unless you have a good stop unit. Could we be looking for a repeat upset here? PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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09-25-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
Arizona at Seattle
We thought the Cardinals were overrated before the season started and we haven't seen anything in their first two games to change our opinion. This is a team that permitted 27.1 ppg a year ago, and allowed 21 to a rookie quarertback making his first start and 22 last week to a Redskins team with the much maligned Rex Grossman behind center. Last year the Cardinals were a 7 point underdog at Seattle and now they are favored by 3 1/2. A 10 1/2 point adjustment between these two teams from a season ago. Arizona enters the game at 1-1, just where we expected after beating Carolina and losing to Washington. Seattle hasn't looked good offensively the first two weeks of the season, but they played San Francisco and Pittsburgh, two of the better stop units in the league. Now they take a major step down to face this Arizona defense. So while Seattle has struggled thus far we expect the offense to come to life on Sunday. Last year Seattle scored 58 combined points in their two meetings with the Cardinals. Seattle has the biggest home/road dichotomy in the NFL. The last 6+ years they are 29-17-2 ATS at home and 15-34-1 ATS on the road. After embarrassing road losses at San Francisco and Pittsburgh the Seahawks come to play in their own backyard on Sunday. PLAY SEATTLE |
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09-25-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +4 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
Green Bay at Chicago
Who won the NFC North last year? The Chicago Bears, as the Super Bowl Champion Packers had to win the final week in order to claim the Wild Card. These teams have split their last 10 regular season meetings including both home teams coming up victorious last season. In fact, Chicago has beaten the Packers 3 of the last 4 years at home. Now Green Bay is being installed as a 4 point road favorite in what is traditionally a very low scoring series. The Packers defense struggled the first two weeks against New Orleans and Carolina, and we expect the Chicago brain trust to protect Jay Cutler by any means necessary here. The Packers have kept Cutler on his back more than any other team, but Chicago has had all off-season to come up with a remedy. Chicago has been an excellent home underdog over the years posting a 17-11 spread mark including 3-1 last season. Off an embarrassing loss last week at New Orleans we expect a major effort out of Chicago here. After all this is the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season, the hated Green Bay Packers. As strong as Green Bay was last regular season they went just 3-5 straight up on the road. Last week they had to battle back on the road at Carolina to get the victory. Green Bay is good, no doubt about it, but this is payback time for the Bears. They've had this game circled. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-25-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Carolina Panthers | 10-16 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
Jacksonville at Carolina
The best way to play early season NFL is to go against public perception. Cantor gaming in Las Vegas puts out lines on every NFL game all season long before the actual season takes place. They adjust the lines each and every week. So if you're a Bears fan from Chicago you can legally bet on every Bears game all season long. It's a great way for Cantor to hold on to their clients money for a while in addition to building a reputation as a risk taker. Before the season started they had Jacksonville as a 2 1/2 point favorite in this game. So why has the line moved a full 6 points after only two games? Public perception. The Jaguars after 8-8 and 7-9 seasons are 1-1 the first two weeks. They beat Tennessee who defeated Baltimore last week and they lost at New York against the Jets. So what has changed about our perception about the Jaguars? Not a lot. They cut their previous starting QB David Garrard and have now benched the backup Luke McCown, who had never proven anything at this level in the past. This week they are going to start their draft pick Blaine Gabbert out of Missouri. Is that considered a drop-off? Not likely as QB has never been a strong suit of this club. Carolina on the other hand entered the year off a 2 win season. They drafted Cam Newton and he's thrown for record breaking numbers the first two weeks. He's already being considered one of the top signal callers in the league after two games. Oh those two games, both losses by 7 points each. The opposition scored 28 and 30 points after permitting 25.5 ppg a year ago. So what has happened to Carolina to change the public's perspective? Well they did put up more points the first two weeks than they averaged last year. But after scoring just 12.3 ppg a season ago did anyone feel a correction wasn't inevitable? The truth of the matter is the Panthers are improved but we already knew that when they opened these lines up months ago in Las Vegas. The only thing that has changed is public perception. Carolina is still a team that is 0-2 and has been outscored by 7 points per game in posting a 1-1 spread mark. They are exactly where most experts thought they would be. Now we get an angry Jacksonville team coming to town after a beatdown by the Jets last week. I'll back the team that knows how to win close games as opposed to the club that has lost 16 of their last 18 contests. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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09-25-11 | Detroit Lions v. Minnesota Vikings +4 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
407/408 Detroit at Minnesota
Looks like a wise guy/square showdown in this one as the public is in love with this high scoring Detroit squad. After putting up 27 on Tampa Bay and 48 last week on Kansas City the players are lining up to take the new "it" team. We won't be one of them although Detroit is a team on the rise. The Lions beat a Tampa Bay team that is being outscored and outgained by margins of 18.5-6.5 and 304-85 in the first half this season. When you continually put yourself behind the eight ball like Tampa Bay has done it's tough coming back week after week. So the impressive first half by Detroit was equalled last week by the Vikings, although Detroit was able to hold on for the victory while Minnesota could not. Last week Detroit played a Kansas City team without their best defensive player, possession tight end, a quarterback with a major rib injury and in the meantime they lost their All-Pro running back. The Chiefs didn't have the weapons to make a game of it. That won't be the case this week as Minnesota is in an early season must win situation. With the Lions at 2-0 and the Vikings at 0-2 the host simply cannot afford to lose this game. In a division with Chicago and Green Bay this is do or die week for the Vikings. Detroit is in a rare position to not only having to win this game but to get the spread cover. The Lions have lost 13 straight at Minnesota, so they are looking to do something they haven't done in over a decade. Minnesota is outscoring the opposition in the first half 17-3.5 while outgaining them 222.5-117.5. After blowing that lead last week you know the Vikings will be focused in the second half this time around. Minnesota is 18-5 straight up at the Metrodome the last 3+ seasons and 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS after a loss here. This will be one focused home underdog on Sunday. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-18-11 | San Diego Chargers v. New England Patriots OVER 53 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
San Diego at New England
Traditionally it's a money making proposition to go under any game totaled at 50 or higher. In our opinion that's no longer the case. The NFL has turned into a passing league and when two excellent signal callers do battle points will be aplenty. There was one such match-up last week and Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers combined for 76 points. This week we expect to see shootouts in this game as well as Philadelphia at Atlanta. These teams know that the opposing squad has a supremely talented quarterback that can put points on the board in a hurry. Therefore they can never take the petal off the metal. No lead is safe in the new NFL and we expect the old under 50 axiom to be a thing of the past. San Diego ranked 1st in the league in total defense last year yet they went over the posted total in 5 of their 8 road games. The last 12 times they were installed as road dogs the games averaged 50.7 points with a median of 51 points scored. Keep in mind that the vast majority of those teams wanted to run the football and keep Philip Rivers on the sidelines. That obviously won't be the case this week. Bill Belichick knows his defense is the weakness of his squad. After falling to 25th in the league last year in total defense the team was shredded in the opener by Chad Henne. Henne's high in passing yards last year was only 363. The Patriots surpassed the posted total in 7 of 8 regular season home games last season. They are 11-5 over the total as a single digit home favorite. That means this team continues to try to score in competitive match-ups. New England home games last year averaged 53.6 ppg and keep in mind they played the likes of Cincinnati, Buffalo, Baltimore, Minnesota and Miami. In games against teams with top tier quarterbacks we saw point totals of 59 against Indianapolis and 58 against Green Bay. Welcome to your new NFL where no lead is safe and you can't touch the quarterback. Who needs the NBA when the NFL offenses have all the advantages to put up huge numbers. PLAY OVER |
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09-18-11 | Chicago Bears v. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
Chicago at New Orleans
The Bears looked excellent last week in a 30-12 home win over Atlanta. Now they travel to New Orleans before a home match-up next week with divisional rival and Super Bowl Champions the Green Bay Packers. Keep in mind that it was the Bears, not the Packers who won this division last year. And Chicago has NFC Championship revenge on tap against the Packers. While the Bears were a solid 4-1 ATS on the road last year catching points, they were a combined 1-8-1 ATS in that role the previous two seasons. In looking back on those games of 2010 you see Chicago taking points at Dallas, Carolina and Miami. Considering the Cowboys battled injuries and poor play all season, Carolina was the worst team in the league and Miami has now failed to win at home in 8 of their last 9 games, we will take that road dog record of 2010 with a grain of salt. Chicago had a 5.5 ppg decrease defensively last season after allowing over 21 ppg the previous three seasons. We don't believe this stop unit has taken the next step and we likely are proven correct after facing the Saints in the dome. New Orleans had a 7.9 ppg drop-off offensively last year and we expect a rebound from New Orleans on that side of the ball. Overall 3 of the last 5 years New Orleans led the league in total offense after dropping to 6th in that category a year ago. Last week they moved the ball especially well against a very talented Green Bay stop unit. While Chicago has a major lookahead next week the Saints have a home non-conference affair on tap with Houston. The Saints also have extra time to prepare after coming up just short last Thursday at Green Bay. The Bears couldn't have looked any better last week and the Saints are coming off a loss. New Orleans is 10-3 ATS off a straight up loss the last three seasons. We look for New Orleans to win this handily. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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09-18-11 | Seattle Seahawks v. Pittsburgh Steelers -14 | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
Seattle at Pittsburgh
Seattle has a cross country trip to Pittsburgh to play an early starting game against the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. Seattle hasn't had a winning road ATS mark since 2002. The last five years they are 12-28 ATS on the road including 3-12 the last two seasons. This is a sandwich game for the Seahawks after facing San Francisco last week and Arizona next time out. The last four times Seattle traveled to face an AFC squad they lost by margins of 30, 17, 27 and 17 points. Only once were they a dog of more than 7 points. So they failed to cover the spread by a combined 68 1/2 points! Seattle couldn't move the ball last week offensively against a San Francisco defense which is expected to be a middling stop unit at best. If and when the Seahawks fall behind here they will be forced to throw which is not in the best interest of the Seattle signal callers. Defensively the Seahawks ranked 27th, 24th and 30th in the league in total defense the last three years. The special teams were burned for two touchdowns last week against the Niners. With home conference games against Arizona and Atlanta on deck we can't see the Seahawks putting forth a full effort here. One of our favorite handicapping angles is to play on a clearly superior team off an embarrassing performance. If you saw the demeanor and heard the quotes after last weeks loss to Baltimore you know the Steelers are out for blood here. Pittsburgh was 3-0-1 ATS off a straight up loss last year. They are 6-1-1 ATS the past five years off a double digit defeat. The last five seasons Pittsburgh has won 19 of their 40 home games by double digits. With only Indianapolis on deck next Sunday night there is no looking past the Seahawks here. It's very rare when you will see us lay two touchdowns in the NFL, but this is one game that looks like a complete domination. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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09-18-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. Washington Redskins -3 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Arizona at Washington
The Cardinals travel all the way to the East Coast for an early starting game against the Redskins. We had Arizona rated as the second worst team in the league last year and they ended the season with five victories. Three of those five wins came by margins of 4 or less, with two by a single point. On the flip side 8 of the 11 losses were by double digits. Keep in mind that they played in the weakest division in the league so they faced the likes of Seattle, St Louis and San Francisco twice each. The signing of Kevin Kolb should help but when was the last time a quarterback left Philadelphia's system and had success? Kolb looked pretty good last week against a sieve of a defense, but that won't be the case here. Defensively the Cardinals allowed a rookie quarterback to set an opening game passing record against them. After finishing 29th in the league a season ago in total defense it looks like another long season for the Cardinals. Washington cashed big time for us with our NFC East Game of the Year last week. This is an improving team that is starting to gain confidence in Rex Grossman. The Skins have now cashed all four games Grossman has started in the last two seasons. After seeing how Donovan McNabb did last week you have to wonder what took so long to make the QB change a year ago. Defensively the Redskins took a major step back last season to 31st in the league in overall defense. That's off three straight top 10 finishes. Keep in mind the same thing happened to this stop unit in 2006 after finishing 9th and 3rd the previous two seasons. They finished the following year back in the top 10 allowing only 19.4 ppg. Injuries took a major toll last year and we expect a huge uptick defensively this season for the Skins. The Skins lost ten games last year with six coming by 4 points or less. They are the far better team in our estimation and the betting public is slow to recognize it. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-11-11 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
469/470 NY Giants at Washington
Handicapping tip number one. Check the injury report. The Giants not only have a lot of players that are either out or severely limited but many are big name starters. It's been a long time since we've seen a team with this long of an injury report before playing a single meaningful game. The offensive line has struggled to keep Manning upright, and if they don't do a better job here there may be two Mannings out of the lineup next week. The last three years New York has been -4, -3 and -4 at Washington, in that time this is by far the worst physical shape they have been in. And yet, they are in the same price range. Both Washington QB's looked good in the preseason and we feel either one would be an upgrade over the job Donovan McNabb did last season. His inability to throw downfield severely hampered this offense. After years of 16.6, 16.6 and 18.9 ppg how much worse can this scoring unit be with Rex Grossman behind center, after all Washington cashed 3 of 4 games last year with him as a starter. The defense had their worst ppg in a decade last season but they still have a good deal of talent. A bounce back season is in store. We could see the Giants in this price range if they were healthy, with their injuries this is a home dog bargain. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-11-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
453/454 Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Pittsburgh had a point differential of +143 last year while Baltimore's was +87. The Steelers did have a +10 turnover margin compared to Baltimore, but the Ravens have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league when it comes to turnovers. Pittsburgh not only comes back this year intact, but they have Ben Rothlesberger for a full 16 games instead of the 12 from last year. Troy Polamalu is also in much better physical shape than a season ago. That's two huge cogs the Steelers were without parts of 2010. Baltimore on the other hand has had offensive line problems and they lost a great deal of talented players and coaches in the off-season. Many people will point to this as a revenge situation for the Ravens since the Steelers knocked them out of the playoffs, but I don't buy it. It's the first game of the season and Pittsburgh lost the Super Bowl, the motivation is there for both clubs. Simply put the Steelers are the better team. Most of their best players are in their prime. Baltimore is an aging squad, especially on the offensive line and the back seven. After 32 wins the last three seasons we will see a drop-off from Baltimore this year and the first signs of that occur here. Pittsburgh is 18-8-1 ATS against divisional rivals on the road. They get the straight up win here. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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09-11-11 | Buffalo Bills v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 40 | 41-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
459/460 Buffalo at Kansas City Under
This under play is mostly predicated on the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs have two major injuries which will highly impact their offense in this game. Starting TE Tony Moeaki is likely out for the season after tearing the ACL in his left knee this week. Just as, if not more important is a rib injury to starting QB Matt Cassel. While he will start he obviously will be very limited. Last year he was the third most successful runner for the Chiefs and with bad ribs he won't be a running force. More importantly he won't be able to throw the ball downfield like he normally would. That leaves the Chiefs with a running game and short passing game, with the best outlet valve out of the lineup. In addition, Jamaal Charles left the Chief's final preseason game in the second quarter because of an injury. He will play but one bad hit and he could be lost. With lots of running from both teams and very few downfield passes we expect this to be a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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09-11-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. St Louis Rams +4.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
463/464 Philadelphia at St Louis
The Miami Heat, oh I'm sorry, the Philadelphia Eagles have gotten a great deal of press for picking up a strong free agent class. While they will no doubt be a very good club it takes time to gel. We saw it in the NBA this year and that was just five players, now the Eagles have to do it with 22. Philadelphia won 10 games last year and they are projected to win 10 1/2 this season. So Vegas feels they will not be the dominant team as many public figures profess. The best way to handicap the NFL in week one is to go against public perception. The Eagles are perceived to be the best team in the NFC. But keep in mind that they were a 6 1/2 point favorite on the road at Detroit last year and failed to cover the number. You remember that Detroit team. The one with Shaun Hill at QB and not Matthew Stafford. That was early in the season also and it was the only time all year Philadelphia was favored on the road by 4 points or more. St Louis on the other hand hasn't gotten nearly the publicity. Yet they are a very possible playoff participant. The Rams caught 4 points or more at home twice last year winning outright against the Chargers and Redskins. They covered the spread in those games by a combined 30 points. The St Louis offense is better than a year ago when they only averaged 18.1 ppg. The defense improved the last two years from 29.1 to 27.3 to 20.5 ppg. The reason? Steve Spagnuolo who was the defensive coordinator for the NY Giants before becoming head man here. He was also the linebackers and defensive backs coach previous to that for the Philadelphia Eagles. So who knows this Eagle offense better than a coach who not only worked for them but faced them twice a year in New York. With the entire off-season to prepare we expect the Rams to have a solid defensive game plan. An outright win would shock the talking heads but it wouldn't surprise us in the least. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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02-06-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Green Bay Packers | 25-31 | Loss | -120 | 100 h 14 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh & Green Bay at Dallas
For the vast majority of the season the AFC was considered the superior conference. The best teams in the NFC during the regular season were Atlanta and Chicago, two teams that were clearly overrated. Those happen to be the same two teams that Green Bay beat the last two weeks in order to become the Super Bowl favorite. Keep in mind that this same Packers squad that's being counted on to win the Super Bowl, was also the same team who needed to beat Chicago at home in the season finale just to make the playoffs. During the regular season the AFC dominated the NFC in head to head meetings and yet the six seeded Packers are favored over the clear second best team from the stronger AFC. While many will discount the experience factor, it's a huge advantage to have players who have gone through this experience in the past. In the current issue of ESPN The Magazine, there was extensive research done that points out that teams that have more players who have been in this game in the past have far more success than Super Bowl virgins. Pittsburgh has now been to the big game 3 of the last 6 years while Green Bay is very inexperienced in this matter. The Packers are also the hot team entering play this week which means they are overrated in the betting market. Seriously, before the playoffs started did you really have Green Bay ranked as the better team between these two? If you did you were one of the few as it was clear to just about anyone that New England and Pittsburgh were the top two teams in the NFL. Green Bay has looked impressive in the postseason and deserve to be here, but they are completely overrated in this matchup. At best the Packers should have been a pick em in this contest and likely a small underdog. Therefore we will back the better team from the stronger conference in the underdog role. PLAY PITTSBURGH Player Props Quarless under 1/12 receptions Jackson over 11 1/2 reception yards Timmons total tackles under 8 1/2 Raji under .5 sacks Jennings over 5 receptions Ward under 3 1/2 receptions Jennings over 80 1/2 reception yards Shields under 4 tackles Miller over 3 1/2 receptions Miller 1st reception over 7 1/2 yards |
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02-06-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Green Bay Packers OVER 44.5 | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 100 h 1 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh & Green Bay at Dallas
The line on this game opened around 46 and has been bet down to 44 or 44 1/2 across the board. With 45 being a key betting number for totals the edge is currently on playing this game over the posted total. Much of the talk about this game has centered around the superior defensive units, and that talk is well deserved. But both teams have excellent signal callers who rarely make mistakes. These are still two quality offenses with plenty of weapons. And keep in mind that this game is being played indoors in a temperature controlled environment, far different from what both of these teams face in their home games. This game also features a slightly different thought process, as in all the previous games both teams had to worry about future games. We saw it in the league championships as both teams had solid leads in the second halves only to take the air out of the football, which led to games finishing much closer than the should. Coaches have a tendency to play conservative when having a lead as they don't want to be second guessed by the media. It's much easier to run the ball and take time off the clock than it is to continue your aggressive attack first mode. But this is the final game of the season and there is no holding back. If a team is finding success in one facet of the game they will continue to exploit that edge knowing there is no tomorrow. Because both teams pulled back last game we expect both coaches to keep the pedal to the metal this entire game. Nobody wants to be known as the team who let the opponent back into the contest in the Super Bowl. This game is being played in the new Cowboy Stadium and for what it's worth all games played here this year went over the posted total. Obviously both of these defenses are far superior to that of the home town Cowboys, but the line also reflects that fact. While many will look at this game as a matchup of two superior defenses, we prefer to put our trust in two of the best quarterbacks in the league. PLAY OVER Team Props Packers 1st downs over 18 1/2 Steelers 1st Downs over 18 Over 8 touchdowns and field goals Over 2 1/2 sacks for Green Bay More points scored in the second half and overtime than the first half No converted 4th downs Packers punt 1st Packers receive opening kickoff |
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01-23-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +4 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 4 m | Show |
Green Bay at Chicago
The Packers are the hot team right now and with any overhyped commodity the price has gone through the roof. While this line could hit 4 by game time we're more than willing to go against public perception here. The Packers have looked impressive in knocking off the Eagles and Falcons in the first two rounds of the playoffs. But we need to take a look at their entire resume as opposed to what is fresh in our minds. Historically there are many reasons to go against the public Packers here. They are a rare road favorite in the playoffs which has not been a good subset at all. Road favorites are just 11-18 straight up and 9-20 ATS. Considering that the Bears own the better overall record is yet another reason to fade the Pack here. History shows that teams who win by large margins and score a lot of points are terrible pointspread propositions the next week. Knowing that this is the third straight road playoff game for Green Bay also makes this a bad spot for the visitor, as teams in that subset cover just 33% of the time. We were impressed by how well the Bears played Green Bay in the last meeting even though Chicago had nothing to play for and Green Bay had to win to make the playoffs. Teams in must win situations at the end of the year are there for one reason only, they simply are not a dominant squad. And that's exactly what the Packers are now. A team that was one loss away from missing out on the postseason. Chicago had major problems along the offensive line earlier and those concerns have been addressed. The running game is stronger and home field advantage is huge. Green Bay had a +12 turnover advantage on the season while the Bears were +3. So with a 9 turnover edge for the Packers they still had a worse record than Chicago. Simply put these two teams are much closer in talent than the line would suggest. We'll gladly take the points considering the Packers couldn't get much more overvalued. PLAY CHICAGO |
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01-08-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks +11 | 36-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
New Orleans at Seattle
Despite all the success the Saints have had the last two seasons they are just 6-7 in the role of road favorites. They are 1-3 ATS laying 7 points or more on the road. In eight road games this year New Orleans never laid a touchdown or more all season, and that includes games at San Francisco, Arizona, Carolina and Cincinnati. Now they are expected to win by double digits on the road in chilly Seattle after losing outright at Arizona and beating lowly San Francisco by 3 and Cincinnati by 4. To make matters worse the Saints will be playing without their top two running backs as Thomas and Ivory are out. That leaves Reggie Bush as the best rusher in the backfield, a player who only once all season ran the ball for over 39 yards. Seattle and the betting public know full well that the Seahawks are the only team in history to make the playoffs with a losing record. That gives us tremendous betting value. Especially when you consider that home dogs are golden in the playoffs, and a double digit home dog is unheard of. Seattle was 5-3 ATS at Quest Field this year and is now 29-17-2 ATS here since 2005. Both of these teams have severe home/road dichotomies, yet in the earlier meeting in New Orleans the Saints were favored by a very similar 11 points. This line is based much more on perception than reality as the last time the betting public saw this Saints team in the playoffs they lofted the Super Bowl Trophy. We can still see the Saints coming out of this game with an outright win but winning by a double digit margin would be quite a feat, and history says it's very unlikely. PLAY SEATTLE |
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01-02-11 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Dallas at Philadelphia
The Cowboys have a lot at stake in this game as a loss would put them at 4-4 under interim coach Garrett and gives good reason for Jerry Jones to go out of the organization for next season. A win means the Pokes are 5-3 since firing Wade Phillips and Garrett likely keeps his job. Word out of Dallas is that Garrett is popular with the players which means Dallas has something to play for on Sunday, especially off an embarrassing performance last time out. Philadelphia on the other hand will be resting key starters in QB Vick, WR Jackson, CB Samuel and LB Bradley. The Eagles have nothing but pride to gain with a victory and with the loss last week they no longer have a first round bye. It's clear that health is a major concern for coach Reid and we expect the remaining starters to be pulled early. PLAY DALLAS |
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01-02-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 41-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
The Steelers need a victory over the Browns to secure the division title and an extra week of rest. Pittsburgh like most teams this time of the season really need that bye week in order to get the walking wounded back on the field. Troy Polamalu has a chance to play in this game and the extra week off after this affair could really help his healthy playoff return. The Browns have dropped 19 of the last 21 meetings with the hated Steelers. Now they likely will be without their lone offensive threat as RB Hillis is extremely banged up. It's no coincidence that Cleveland has struggled offensively as of late with Hillis battling injuries. With a rookie QB with limited skill at the receiver positions it could be a long day for Cleveland offensively. The Browns were much better early on in the first half of games because that lack quality depth. When some of the starters started going down Cleveland was exposed even earlier. At this point of the season the Browns are down to the end of the bench as injuries have taken a major toll. We can't expect Cleveland to get healthy against a motivated Pittsburgh team that knows they can dominate this foe. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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12-28-10 | Minnesota Vikings +14.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
Minnesota at Philadelphia
The Vikings have gone from the penthouse and a 12-4 record to the outhouse with a 5-9 mark as the season ends. They looked terrible Monday night in a 40-14 loss to the Bears. But keep in mind that the last two weeks everything has been very hectic with this team. Not only did they go through the Brett Favre saga but the roof collapsed at the Metrodome. Off back to back games without a home field advantage they were getting 5 and 5 1/2 points against the Giants and Bears. Now they receive nine points more for playing in Philly? That's too much of an overreaction. Sure they are suffering from key injuries but this is still a decent NFL team that's being priced as though they were the Carolina Panthers. A team that was in the same price range Thursday night in Pittsburgh. This is a terrible scheduling situation for the Eagles. Since the break they played: Indianapolis the defending AFC Champion, division rival Washington on Monday Night Football, division rival NY Giants on Sunday Night Football, likely playoff foe Chicago, Houston on Thursday Night Football, division rival Dallas on Sunday Night Football and finally division rival NY Giants last week for control of the division title. Now they face the lowly Vikings without three of their best players before ending the season hosting Dallas. Off that huge come from way behind win last week over New York how can this team be focused on Minnesota? Simply put this has been a huge overreaction by the betting market who saw one team look terrible the last two weeks while the other looked terrific in knocking off a very good Giants team. Plenty of value with the Vikings who need to prove themselves this week. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-27-10 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons -2.5 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
New Orleans at Atlanta
This has been a high scoring series as of late with the last six meetings totaling 48 points or better. Earlier this season these two went to overtime before Atlanta came away with a 27-24 victory. In comparing these two teams they are very similar offensively and defensively. But the one big advantage Atlanta has tonight is the home field. The last four seasons the Falcons are 14-5-1 ATS in the role of home favorites. Already this year against playoff caliber opposition they won here by 6 over Tampa Bay, by 5 over Baltimore and by 3 over Green Bay. This is a team that is at it's best when playing in the Georgia Dome and that's a big edge here. Like the Falcons, the Saints are a much better team playing at home. The last three seasons they are 15-7 ATS in the Superdome. But on the road against quality opposition the Saints have struggled a bit this year. While they did whip the Buccaneers in Tampa they also lost at Baltimore, the only two playoff quality teams they played on the road. Keep in mind that this is a team that lost at Arizona and only beat the 49ers by 3, the Cowboys by 3 and the Bengals by 4. The line indicates that the betting public still feels the Saints are the better team. While on a neutral field they may have an argument, but this is one of if not the strongest home field edges in the NFL. When a field goal gets you the cover how can you not back the home standing Falcons. PLAY ATLANTA |
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12-26-10 | Houston Texans v. Denver Broncos OVER 48.5 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 40 m | Show |
Houston at Denver
The once promising season for the Texans is now over after three straight losses. After starting the year 2-0 with wins over Indy and Washington the talk was of the Texans finally making the playoffs. But as we have found all season long you can't win with a defense as weak as that of Houston. The Texans have now permitted 29 points or more in 9 of the last 10 games. The last three weeks they allowed 65 combined points in the first half alone. With the season now down to two games we look for the coaching staff to experiment offensively as they try to outscore the opposition from the opening kick. This has been a team that comes alive after halftime after having a subpar first half. But now that the season is over we expect Houston to come out firing from the start. Denver is another team with serious defensive issues. The Broncos have permitted 29 points or more in 5 of the last 6 games including 35 or more 4 of the last 5 weeks. Offensively Tim Tebow has been given a chance behind center which gives this offense a more dynamic look. It should confuse this Houston defense and open up more scoring opportunities. With promising seasons down the drain we expect both teams to open up offensively here and make this a high scoring affair. PLAY OVER |
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12-20-10 | Chicago Bears v. Minnesota Vikings +8.5 | 40-14 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Chicago at Minnesota
With the game being played outdoors instead of the Metrodome the home field advantage for the Vikings is minimal if not non-existant. That said, the linesmaker has made too much of an over-adjustment in this contest. Sure the Vikings are down to their third string starter at quarterback but the team really hasn't gotten any type of production from the position all year. Coming off an embarrassing performance offensively last week where the Vikings scored just 3 points against the Giants, we can see a motivated unit. We saw much of the same out of the Packers last night after being completely shut down by the Lions in the previous game. The situation is similar in that a back-up QB was forced into action because of an injury and now has a full week of practice as the starter. While we don't expect Webb to have the same success as Flynn last night, he will do enough to keep his team competitive, and that's all you need to cover this inflated spread. The Bears aren't a team that scores enough to handle this pointspread range. They are 0-4-1 ATS on the season laying 3 points or more. Now they are favored by their most points all season against a hated divisional rival. The earlier game in Chicago the line was pick 'em and now they are favored in Minnesota by more than a touchdown. The last three years the Bears have lost in Minnesota by margins of 26, 20 and 7 points. While they may be the better team in this contest the Vikings simply won't roll over and die. The total on this game is very low in the 33 range which is extremely advantageous for the underdog. It's tough to score enough points to cover this spread in an expected low scoring game, especially an outdoor game in Minnesota in December. Look for defense and the weather to be big factors in this low scoring affair with the Vikings being competitive throughout. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-19-10 | NY Jets v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 36 | 22-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
NY Jets at Pittsburgh
This is a huge game for the Jets who are clinging to a wild card spot with a tough game at Chicago next week. The offense has been stagnant as of late scoring just 3 points each of the last three games in first half action. But just like last week against the Dolphins the Jets don't have to outscore the opposition this week, they just need to play ball control offense and limit turnovers. Pittsburgh put up 23 points last week but two touchdowns were from the defense. Offensively the Steelers are struggling pretty bad as of late. The two prior weeks Pittsburgh scored 13 against Baltimore and 19 in overtime against Buffalo. Against quality defensive teams this season the Steelers have scored 9 in regulation against Atlanta, 14 and 13 against Baltimore and 10 against New Orleans. This scoring unit will not have much success here against a Jets defense playing for their playoff lives. PLAY UNDER |
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12-19-10 | Jacksonville Jaguars +5 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Despite cashing six straight games the Jaguars continue to be underrated in the betting markets. Jacksonville beat Indy earlier this year 31-28 and they haven't had any problem putting points on the board in this series. The Jags have scored 31 points each of the last two meetings and 23 points or more in 5 of the last 6 in this series. Jacksonville is in good current form offensively reaching 20 points or better in 4 of the last 5 games overall. Indy can score on just about anyone but they just can't be trusted defensively. The stop unit is getting progressively worse week after week as injuries have really taken a toll. The last four games the Colts have permitted 28, 38, 36 and 31 points. That's not the type of team we want any part of in the favorite role. The Colts had long been dominant in this building posting a 41-7 straight up record here the past six seasons. But Indy has dropped two straight at home to San Diego and Dallas and the game before that was life and death against Cincinnati. The Colts were successful in the past because Manning didn't make mistakes and the team always had a positive turnover differential. Each of the last seven years Indy had a turnover advantage totaling a whopping plus 77. This year the Colts are down 4 in the turnover ratio. A telling stat about how fortunate the Colts have been is that the last two times they held a turnover advantage they failed to cover the spread. Despite a plus 5 advantage against Cincinnati they cost their backers the cash and last week in Tennessee the Titans took home the money even though Indy had a plus 2 turnover edge. Simply put the Colts are not nearly as good as their record would indicate and the Jags very likely are the better team. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-19-10 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -5.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 40 m | Show |
Buffalo at Miami
Buffalo has played well when the opposition overlooks them, but that simply doesn't happen against divisional rivals. The Bills are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 ATS against the AFC East this season. Buffalo is now 2-13 SU and 5-9-1 ATS against divisional rivals the past 15 meetings. With the Bills winning 3 of their last 5 games outright the Dolphins will not take them lightly, especially considering their problems at home this season. Miami has never had a very large advantage in Dolphin Stadium with five wins or less here in each of the last seven seasons. But remarkably Miami is 1-5 straight up at home in 2010. Granted losses to the Jets, Patriots, Bears and Steelers can be explained but they also split with Tennessee and Cleveland. With Detroit on deck next week, Miami can salvage a bit of pride by beating the Bills and Lions here to end their home season. Lost in the Dolphins struggles this year is the improvement of this Miami stop unit. The last five games Miami has permitted 6, 13, 17, 16 and 17 points. While this team has scored just 10 points or less in 3 of the last 4 games this defense of Buffalo pales in comparison to some of the teams Miami has played thus far. How bout games against the Jets twice, the Patriots, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Chicago. Just three weeks ago the Dolphins showed what they could do against a weaker stop unit by putting up 33 points against Oakland. Despite a disappointing season for the host, Miami can guarantee themselves a winning year with home wins over Buffalo and Detroit the next two weeks. That's enough of a goal for Miami to be fully focused on the Bills this Sunday, and as we have seen Buffalo doesn't play well against focused squads. PLAY MIAMI |
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12-19-10 | Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Giants OVER 46 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
Philadelphia at NY Giants
The Eagles continue to be an offensive powerhouse with only the Patriots being a better scoring unit. Philadelphia has done it against just about everyone including scoring 27 against the Giants in the first meeting. In fact, the Eagles have reached 26 points or more in the last six games and 8 of the last 9 contests overall. Last year Philadelphia produced 45 and 40 points against the Giants in the two meetings. The Eagle defense which had been so good early on is suffering from key injuries. The past three games they have allowed 31, 24 and 27 points. Overall the Eagle "D" has permitted 24 points or more in 6 of the last 7 games. The Giants have been getting big games out of their running backs and now the receivers are getting back into the lineup. They produced 21 points last week only because they knew the defense could carry the team against a feeble Minnesota scoring unit with 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks. Now the Giants know they must take risks offensively to keep up with the high flying Eagles. We expect another shootout in a battle for first place. PLAY OVER |
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12-13-10 | Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Houston Texans | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Baltimore ar Houston
The Ravens have been terrific when blowing a late lead at home the previous game and we expect another great performance here. This is a team that dominates the first half defensively just about every week allowing just 7.8 points on the season. Only once all year did they permit more than 10 first half points, and the last three games the opposition has scored a combined 6 points in the first half. The reason why this is so important is that with a lead the Ravens are a much more balanced offense. Joe Flacco just isn't the type of quarterback to lead a team from behind. With a lead this defense is deadly and Houston on the season has been a very slow starting club. The Texans are being outscored in the first half on average 14.4-8.7 on the season. They have scored more than 14 points in the first stanza just once. Houston has been held to seven points or less before the break 7 of 12 games. This team has the habit of falling behind early and this is not the team you want to play with a deficit. At 5-7 this can be considered the Super Bowl for Houston and I'm sure it will be promoted that way. But the truth is this isn't a very good football team. They have made a habit of losing to the best teams in the league and the Ravens are certainly in that elite group. Look for the Ravens to get out early and let the defense stymie the Texans. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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12-12-10 | Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
Philadelphia at Dallas
The last time the Eagles took the field against the Cowboys in the regular season they were shutout in the season finale last year 24-0. What a difference one year makes. Michael Vick is back starting in the NFL and the Cowboys have long been out of the playoff hunt. This Eagle offense has been amazing all season and they have produced an average of 34.4 ppg the last five contests. Philadelphia is especially good to start out games as they have scored first in 10 of the 12 games despite only getting the ball first six times this season. In the first half this year Philadelphia is averaging 16.8 points and a whopping 212.4 yards. We highly doubt that this Cowboys defense will slow them down. Dallas has permitted 30 points or more in 6 of their last 9 games. The last two weeks they were shredded for 65 combined points against the Saints and Colts. Dallas is a much better team right now than they were before the coaching change. But the fact remains that this is a team that has won 9 games or more the past five seasons and had Super Bowl dreams before the year started, now all they can do is play out the season. We know all about the character issues on this team, so if they fall behind early like we expect the energy level will dissipate. We've seen teams all season try to outscore the Eagles with little to no success. And those teams had better stop units than the Cowboys. With that regular season ending loss to Dallas last year Philadelphia was forced to go on the road and play the Cowboys once again in the playoffs. The results were more of the same, a 34-14 loss which ended their season. Coach Reid and company have had this game circled for a long time, and we know how the Eagles have fared in these regular season prime time affairs. Philadelphia is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year and 9-1 ATS overall under the lights in these featured games. With double revenge and the far better defense the Eagles get it done Sunday night. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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12-12-10 | Denver Broncos v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 42 | 13-43 | Win | 100 | 46 h 6 m | Show | |
Denver at Arizona
The Broncos have been totally unpredictable offensively this season. One minute they score 33 against St Louis and the next they are held to 6 points at Kansas City. But with a new optimism after the coaching change we expect this scoring unit to thrive. Against the NFL West, Denver is averaging 26.7 ppg this season. Now they face by far the weakest defense in that division. This is a team with offensive weapons that have been underused, that shouldn't be the case on Sunday. Arizona is allowing 16.7 points and 194.5 yards in the first half this season when the games are still undecided. Considering that the Cardinal's divisional opponents are Seattle, San Francisco and St Louis those numbers are magnified. When not playing teams from the offensively challenged NFC West Arizona is permitting a whopping 31.6 ppg. The Cardinals have scored 13, 6 and 6 points the past three games. There is even talk about promoting the third string quarterback for this contest. But truth be told the Cardinals simply don't have an NFL caliber starting quarterback, so the drop-off if any will be miniscule. Still Arizona has enough talent at the other skill positions to put enough points on the board. Besides it's not like the Broncos are stout defensively. Denver has permitted 24 points or more in all but three games this season. Coming off a weather influenced game last week at Kansas City the total on this game is an overreaction. Just once all season has there been less than 40 points scored in a Denver game and that came last Sunday. With two terrible defensive teams there is no way this game can't be higher scoring. After each team scored 6 points a week ago what do you think the coaching staffs are working on all week? PLAY OVER |
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12-12-10 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -5.5 | Top | 21-40 | Win | 100 | 46 h 9 m | Show |
Seattle at San Francisco
Big revenge game for the 49ers who were pummeled at Seattle in the season opener 31-6. That was the first game under head coach Pete Carroll and it was a big game for this organization. But since that time the Seahawks have come back down to earth, especially as of late losing 4 of the last 6 times they have taken the field. Seattle's defense has been the main culprit allowing 33 points or more in 4 of the last 6 games. On the season the Seahawks allow 13.6 points and 202.1 yards in the first half. If not for the opening season game against the 49ers as well as facing the offensive weaklings of Carolina and Arizona this defense would be allowing 30.1 points per game. Although the records don't show it the Niners are the better team. And that's backed up by the line on this game as San Francisco is a clear favorite despite trailing the Seahawks in the standing by a full two games. Alex Smith is back under center for the Niners in a move to open up the offense a bit, and against this willing defense it should result in great success. While many will point to the San Francisco scoring unit as being a problem they have hit 20 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. With a trip to San Diego on the horizon for Thursday, this becomes a must win game for the host. With a win here the Niners are back in the divisional race as they end the season with St Louis and Arizona. The last time San Francisco stepped on this field they were embarrassed by Tampa Bay 21-0. It's payback time for the host on Sunday. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-12-10 | Cleveland Browns +1 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
Cleveland at Buffalo
The Browns have been very competitive on the road this season losing just once by more than a touchdown. That was against the hated Steelers who always beat up on Cleveland. The other games were outright wins at New Orleans and Miami, with a 7 point loss at Baltimore, a 3 point loss at Tampa Bay and a 4 point last second loss at Jacksonville. Other than the Dolphins every other team is currently in playoff contention. That can't be said of the Bills who have been playing for fun pretty much the entire year. To show just how under the radar this Cleveland team has been this year we point out that they faced in consecutive games Atlanta, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, New England and the New York Jets. The Browns were outscored in those games 105-104. They have played three teams who are not in the playoff hunt, Cincinnati, Carolina and Miami. The Browns won all three of those games. We've taken advantage of an underrated Bills team much of the second half of the season. But last week Buffalo laid down against the Vikings and it could be that they have finally given their all. After starting the season 0-7 they have been searching for respect and after back to back wins over Detroit and Cincinnati they achieved that goal. But the last two weeks they went to overtime against a very physical Pittsburgh team and were manhandled by the potent Minnesota running game. With nothing to play for but pride the Bills may pack it in here with three straight divisional games to end the season. Buffalo is allowing 15.2 points and 203.1 yards in the first half this season. That's a telling stat that shows just how bad this defense is when the game is still undecided. Cleveland has scored 20 points or more in 5 of 6 games and they should find a lot of success offensively on Sunday. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-06-10 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 45 | 3-45 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
NY Jets at New England
The last time these two met was the second week of the season. A time when suntans were still a priority and the Colts, Vikings and Cowboys were Super Bowl contenders. In that game the posted total was just 39 and the game produced 42 points. So what have we learned since that time. The New York defense is just as good as projected and the offense is more competitive than last season. Despite giving the ball to the opposition to start the game 9 of 11 times the Jets are only allowing 7.7 points in the first half. We knew coming into the season the young Patriot defense would go through growing pains. And that they have, but coming off four substandard games and with an extra few days to prepare we look for this stop unit to perform very well. Offensively the Patriots really are hit and miss this season. Against the best defenses they have played they produced just 14 against the Jets, 20 in regulation against the Ravens and 23 at the Chargers. They have looked terrific against the poor defenses but they won't run into that this game. Like the New York defense the Patriots like to defer to the second half, having only taken the ball twice all season. That's what makes allowing only 9.7 first half points per game so impressive. New England games tend to go over when the opposition tries to match Brady and company score for score. Ryan and his staff know in order to beat the Patriots they must do it with a ball control offense and let the defense keep them in the game. It worked earlier this year and we expect another low scoring affair. The weather could become a factor as it did last night in Baltimore. We expect defense to rule the night in a low scoring game. PLAY UNDER |
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